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  • 1
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The Convention on the Law of the Sea is the still controversial outcome of the longest and perhaps most expensive international conference of the century. The most debated issue at UNCLOS III was the Convention's regime to govern seabed mining; differences of opinion on this regime have seriously challenged the purpose of the Conference and are likely to keep the Convention from becoming effective as international law. This paper is an inquiry into the economic causes for such an outcome. In Section II the efficieny of the Convention's regulation for minerals production from the ocean bed is analyzed. Section III deals with the efficiency of the Convention's production process at UNCLOS, focusing on the determinants of voting behaviour and on the rules of procedure used. The last section explores the rationale for alternative multilateral organizations for an efficient management of seabed mining.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Proposals concerning the future regime to govern deepsea mining put forward at the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea reflect a lack of empirically based criteria, particularly with reference to the impact of seabed mining on the metal markets and the redistribution of income implied. A thorough discussion of the issues at stake evidently calls for substantial quantitative work. The aim of the present paper is to contribute to the discussion of this topic as far as the market for manganese ore is affected. First, a dynamic commodity model for manganese is derived, specified and estimated. After establishing its recursive properties the model is then validated in historical simulation and stability analysis. Next, forecasts up to 1995 are made for supply, demand and the price of manganese. Finally, the model is simulated over alternative scenarios, in order to study the sensitivity of the manganese market to a supply shock from deepsea mining under different assumptions about the future economic environment.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The starting point of this overview is the contention that unemployment problems in industrial countries can be attributed to a significant extent to distortions in the labour market. These interventions have caused the level and structure of real wages to not adequately reflect the productivity of labour and the differences of skills in the labour force. Myriads of laws and regulations, most of which have been implemented in the course of creating the modern Welfare State, have made it very expensive for firms to hire labour, have made it unattractive for some employees to change jobs between firms or regions and have made it lucrative for others not to work. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the impact of government and trade union policies on the labour market and thus on employment. The analysis will focus on policies (i) directly influencing pay levels, (ii) directed toward job rights, (iii) concerned with job environment, and (iv)i dealing with social aspects.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: A number of recent studies have shown that the short term level of economic activity and employment in primary commodity exporting countries is particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations in world commodity markets. The authorities in such countries, in seeking to maintain output and employment stability, must invoke compensatory macroeconomic adjustment strategies to accommodate both favourable and unfavourable movements in the foreign terms of trade. Chile provides a case in point. Chile has traditionally been heavily reliant on raw materials exports, particularly copper, for its foreign exchange earnings. Copper exports averaged around 70 per cent of total export earnings for the period 1960-19 76. They currently represent about one half of total foreign exchange earnings.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper examines the income and allocation effects of an appropriate export diversification policy by means of a computable general equilibrium model for Colombia. This kind of policy is often envisaged as a counter to unstable export earnings which are considered to be detrimental to economic growth. The results show that irrespective of the reduction of the costs of export instability an appropriate diversification of exports raises income in the Colombian economy.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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  • 14
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This study presents an econometric model of the world cobalt industry, relatively disaggregated to incorporate different demand equations for the United States, and rest of the non-communist world, as well as a breakdown into types of cobalt used. Largely due to reasons of data availability, the model is an annual one and the breakdown by end use categories has been restricted to the United States. Particular attention in the model construction has been given to price setting in the cobalt market. Existing evidence by Burrows (1971) and Charles River Associates (1976) suggests that Zaire sets the price so as to maximise its own profits. The aim of this study is to estimate aggregate and disaggregate short run and long run elasticities with respect to price and activity variables, and to test whether the own profit maximization hypotheses is representative of current producer price setting behaviour when Zaire's share in total world mine production has fallen from nearly two thirds to less than half between 1972 and 1978. Finally, the model constructed is used to simulate the effect of marginal cost pricing by major producers and the movements in price resulting from an exogeneous increase in supply. The latter exercise was motivated by the possibility of a substantial long run source of supply of cobalt from seabed mining.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The costs and benefits of export diversification in an old non-oil commodity exporting country are the subject matter of the following analysis. In chapter 2 the causal nexus from commodity price fluctuations to domestic disturbances is developed from well-established macro- and microeconomic theory-. As both structural change and multiple distortions are central to the argument, the analysis is promising only in a quantitative multisectoral general equilibrium framework applied to some appropriate country. The case of copper-exporting Chile will be studied here. The country model is described in chapter 3 and documented in the appendix. The model experiments used for determining the costs and benefits are also designed in chapter 3. The results are presented and discussed in chapter 4 and conclusions are drawn in chapter 5.
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  • 16
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Analysing the development of food and agricultural raw material markets during the past twenty years, two phases could be distinguished. Following a long period with production surpluses, comprehensive stocks and stable prices, in the seventies the situation changed dramatically. During 1973 and 1974 food prices have nearly quadrupled on average (with substantial differences between individual commodities) and those of agricultural raw materials more than doubled (see Figure 1). The upsurge of food prices reflected above all poor crops in some importing regions for grains - crop failure in the USSR played an important role - as well as decreases of grain and oilseed production due to bad weather conditions in major exporting countries (in particular in the United States). On the international markets for sugar and beef production and supply shortages were mainly a consequence of producer responses on disappointing prices in the years before. For agricultural raw materials, the upswing in economic activity in industrial countries during 1973/74 - with a largely parallel course of the business cycle in individual countries - strongly stimulated demand and pushed up quotations since simultaneously supply development has proved as less dynamic. Finally, pessimistic expectations with regard to future supplies of agricultural commodities and fears of commodity cartels following the OPEC-price cartel were temporarely important market determining factors.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The first purpose of this paper is to demonstrate, as a theoretical.proposition, that elimination of controls on bank interest rates would not necessarily lead to a decline in output in those sectors which were previously able to obtain cheap bank credit, The efficiency gains obtained by eliminating these controls need not, therefore, come at the expense of economic growth (or whatever other benefits were presumed to accrue by fostering particular sectors using credit controls). The key to this result lies in a proper understanding of the way in which credit price control and quantity rationing in the regulated sector affects resource allocation, given the existence of a dual, unregulated financial sector. The second purpose of this paper is to present quantitative estimates of the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the removal of bank interest rate controls in South Korea. In many ways the Korean experience is tailor-made for a study of this kind.
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  • 18
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: As economic theory shows and experience underlines, international trade and the specialization associated herewith is one important source of economic growth, employment creation and technological innovation in participating countries. In awareness of this potential for increasing economic prosperity throughout the world, the architects of the international trading system, which was to emerge from the ashes of World War II, envisaged a framework of rules leading to, and securing, open markets. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which came into being in 1948, laid down such trade rules, basically the principles of non-discrimination and multilateralism in world trade. The aim was not to establish free trade, without any government intervention. What was meant is liberal trade, in which governments may interfere, but using price measures which are transparent and do not rule out competition (i.e. non-prohibitive tariffs rather than quantitative restrictions or subsidies). Adherence by the member countries to the principles of multilateralism and non-discrimination was expected to give rise to the production of an international public good: stability and predictability of trade rules.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper presents estimates of India's unofficial economy on a yearly basis for the period 1967 to 1978. These estimates implicitly revise the GNP, per capita and other related statistics for this period. The technique employed has been recently used to determine the size of the unreported economies in U.S.A. and Canada. The results indicate that the unreported activity as a proportion of official GNP has grown from 9.5 per cent in 1967 to nearly 49 per cent by 1978. High taxes have contributed significantly to the growth of the unofficial economy. A 1 per cent increase in overall taxes leads to more than 3 per cent increase in the unofficial economy relative to the official economy.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Significant changes in the structure of production and employment are one of the salient features of West Germany's economic history. However, it was not until the mid-1970s that such changes were accompanied by sizeable friction. After 1973, the hitherto last year of full employment, the German economy has been characterized by disequilibria on the labour market and a fairly poor investment and economic growth performance as measured by prior standards. Obviously, since a couple of years the demand for adjustment in Germany, as in most other western industrialized countries, has outpaced the economy's adjustment capacity. Whether or to what extent the adjustment difficulties are due to an increase in demand for structural change or to a decrease of the economy's flexibility cannot be precisely assessed. (I) In the course of the 1970s, various shocks have added to necessary adjustment to shifts in relative prices that are considered normal in the course of economic growth. (II) At the same time, observed increases in price and wage rigidities (Soltwedel, Spinanger, 1976; Fels, Weiss, 1978; Glismann et al., 1973) seem to have weakened the allocative efficiency of the market mechanism in the 1970s as compared to the 1960s. Among the factors mentioned to exert pressure for structural change in Germany, the present paper aims at investigating the adjustment in response to an increasing division of labour with developing countries. The focus of the paper is on manufacturing in which adjustment pressure has become particularly strong. The years 1965, 1969, 1973 and 1977, i.e. periods of relatively high capacity utilization, serve as benchmarks.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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  • 21
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Economists like to justify public redistributive activity with standard externality arguments. While not denying the existence of a private charity market based on altruism, feelings of social responsibility, pure taste for giving or even -egoistic speculation on future rewards to charity, they seriously doubt the efficiency of the market outcome. The prime reason for the presumed market failure lies in a peculiar feature of the charity market, namely: the inherent division of consumption into a material component enjoyed by the donee and a spiritual component enjoyed by the donor precisely by making somebody else better off. For other potential donors this creates the chance for a free ride: as long as their preferences for giving at least partially depend on the well-being of the recipients - pure private good cases are excluded -, they adjust far others' transfers to the poor by reducing their own contributions to an independent adjustment equilibrium level with marginal social utility greater than marginal cost of the transfers. Thus the overall level of charitable giving will remain below Samuelson's optimal public goods supply, and a case for public redistribution in the broadest sense (including the provision of Welfare services) seems to be established.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 22
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Our aim in this paper is to describe the theory of a multicountry multisector general equilibrium model system whose specification preserves as far as is possible; (i) the considerable amount of 10 detail, (ii) the numerous prospects for relative price induced substitution and (iii) the operational flexibility, now found in the most advanced of the single country models. To do this, we take as our reference point the Australian ORANI model (Dixon et al (1982)) which is the most comprehensive (in terms of its treatment of within country 10 linkages and substitution prospects) and flexible (in terms of its ease of application to a range of policy shocks) of the single country models developed to date. Starting with a somewhat simplified version of the ORANI system (which describes intersectoral linkages within one economy and commodity trade flows - exports from it to the rest of the world and imports from the rest of the world to the demand categories in which they are used -) we extend it to a c+1 block system describing intersectoral linkages between the c countries into intermediate input and final demand categories of each country and trade flows from each of the countries to the c+1 block (which depicts.an aggregation of all remaining countries). Such a framework would.be suitable for studying effects of internal (originating in any of the c countries) and external (to the group of c countries) shocks on macroeconomic and sectoral variables in each country and on trade flows between countries. Given its considerable attention to regionalised (country to country) flows at the 10 level the system is especially applicable to a group of c countries between which the degree of economic integration is high. The most obvious example is the 10 member customs union of the EEC. Other examples include the five member countries of ASEAN, the developed countries (USA, Japan, Australia) of the so-called Pacific rim and the trans-Tasman economic integration between Australia and New Zealand.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper presents a practical model for the analysis of the price determination mechanism in raw materials markets that are characterized by the dominance of a large firm. The model takes explicit note of the influence of inventory adjustments; it is postulated that the dominant firm's decision on price and production levels is negatively related to the difference between actual and desired inventory levels. In a first empirical test, the model is applied to an analysis of the nickel industry. The empirical results support the hypothesized role of inventories and show the importance of inventory adjustments relative to the other factors determining price and production behavior.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: In the case of fisheries, the lack of an efficient property rights structure (uniform, exclusive, and transferable property rights) is widely recognized as the prime impediment to higher profitability of the fishing industry and to the prevention of over-exploitation. This study uses an empirical model for measuring the economic efficiency implications of the competitive exploitation of a commonly shared fishery. While lack of data prevents the empirical application of theoretical state-of-the-art fishery models, the specification of the model used here does not prevent an analysis of the central efficiency question. Within a 'surplus-production' model of the North Sea fishery, economically optimal levels of fishing effort, cost, revenue, and rent are estimated. These are compared with activity levels that are considered optimal in the biological sense. The paper begins with a review of the optimality conditions. Section II presents an empirical model, whose application to the multi-species North Sea fishery is discussed in Section III. Section IV presents empirical results.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This study represents an attempt to determine to what degree well-meant labor market policies negatively influence employment and hence unemployment levels. To do this a survey - referred to hereafter as the Labor Code Survey (LCS) - of firms in Panama was carried out. This survey is unique not only for Panama - such a broad-based attempt to analyze the impact of labor market regulations has not been carried out anywhere else. The study as it stands, however, is not considered by the author to be complete, as neither the entire depth of the information gathered for the project could be presented here, nor are possible issues from the employees' side explicitly covered in this approach. The author would thus welcome comments on issues which could be analyzed further and criticism of aspects neglected or overly stressed.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: It is now generally recognized that special interest group influence on economic decision making is not in theory a phenomenon restricted to democratic capitalism. Governments which have attained power by non-democratic means must eventually seek legitimacy, either by populist appeals to the masses or by cultivating the support of important sectors (e.g. Lovell (1975)). They may therefore be no less immune to interest group lobbying than governments which face electoral scrutiny. Likewise, it has been argued that the incentive for interest groups to exert political pressure is in fact greater under socialism than under capitalism (e.g. Becker (1983)). The purpose of this paper is to present evidence on the role of special interest groups in economic policy making in the Republic of Korea (South Korea), a country which differs from a western capitalist democracy in at least one important respect.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The old controversy about whether wage and price controls are instrumental or not in bringing down the rate of inflation was never quite buried in the U.S., although after the apparent failure of Nixon's Economic Stabilization Program of 1971-1974 (ESP) to achieve its desired goals, even the enthusiasm of Incomes Policy advocates appeared for a while to have been mitigated. Defeat however, was never acknowledged, by its defenders. All type of ex-post rationalizations were offered as to, why, in the case of controls having been properly implemented and coordinated with more responsible monetary and fiscal policy, they would have eventually succeeded and not been thwarted in holding the reins of an inflation which from a brisk trot before the imposition of the ESP had set forth in an unbridled gallop at the end of it. Vanquishing inflation has certainly never been a pure academic problem since the costs of either living with it or putting an end to it have always been too real for everybody. But the Reagan administration's belief in a supply-side free lunch as an effective weapon against inflation has rekindled the debate. There is an increased willingness to have yet another go at controls of those who always seeing wage inflation as the big culprit do not think that moderate fiscal and monetary restraint together with the measures to reduce costs and boost productivity (as Reagan's administration has set out to do) can alone curb price inflation without the parallel complementary effect of some direct mandatory wage restraint. The purpose here is limited - to take again the skeleton out of the cupboard, namely the U.S. Economic Stabilization Program of 1971-1974 and try to ask some questions similar to the previous quantitative studies about its effects, as well as some other questions which were perhaps not so much looked into before.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Most observers of economic events have noticed a considerable increase in the general volatility of prices over the last decade. An important byproduct often attributed to this increased price variability is greater uncertainty perceived by individual decisionmakers in the process of formulating intertemporal plans. This paper seeks to clarify and provide some extensions to previous theoretical work on the question of how economic agents adjust to increased price uncertainty in the context of the competitive firm. In particular, the question asked is whether the optimal choice of inputs in a competitive firm is affected by the advent of increased factor and output price uncertainty. The answer given in earlier studies such as those by Baron (1970), Batra and Ullah (1974), Leland (1972) and Sandmo (1971) is quite straightforward: If competitive-firm managers are risk-neutral profit maximizers, the optimal input mix remains unaffected by increased uncertainty, while under risk-averse managers, firms either reduce their scale of operations or adjust their input mix towards relatively greater use of less risky inputs.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Whether the interests of a nation are best served by maintaining fixed exchange rates or by allowing exchange rates to vary continues to be a much debated issue among economists. Most of the earlier literature on this topic focused attention on the two extremes of completely fixed exchange rates versus the perfectly flexible or free floating system, examining the circumstances (degree of factor mobility, structure and origin of disturbances, etc.) under which one or the other would be preferred. More recently, several authors have adopted a different perspective by which the fixed and free float regimes are considered endpoints on a continuous spectrum of exchange rate flexibility (e.g. Boyer (1978), Frenkel and Aizenman (1982), Roper and Turnovsky (1980)). Undoubtedly, this view was stimulated by the move toward a system of managed floating among the major world currencies since 1973, where governments intervene in foreign exchange markets to varying extents, but not enough to peg the exchange rate.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper evaluates the impact of rising international interest rates on the South Korean economy during the seventies with the help of an econometric macro model. The results show that there was an induced reduction of investment and GDP, yet inflationary pressures were somewhat mitigated by a lowering of capital inflows.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Comparing inflation rates internationally, one finds a number of Latin American countries in the lead. Therefore, when investigating inflation in LDCs, it has become common practice to refer to these countries as prime examples. Mainly two theories have been put forward to explain Latin American inflation: the monetarist and structuralist hypotheses. While in the monetarist theory aggregate excess demand resulting from an excess supply of money is regarded as the only cause of inflation, the structuralist theory ascribes inflation also to the composition of demand for products and services accompanied by inflexibilities in the productive structure. The purpose of this paper is to give further empirical evidence for the structuralist view of inflation in six selected Latin American countries: Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. They have all been highly prone to inflation in the past. First, we outline the theoretical background of our investigation. Subsequently, empirical tests of the hypotheses are provided. Finally, we draw some conclusions from our study and relate the findings to the discussion of the harmful effects of export instability in LDCs.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper analyses, using a comparative-static general equilibrium model built along neoclassical lines, a range of devaluation, monetary and wage policy mixes for the Chilean economy. By quantifying the short-run implications of each policy mix for key economic variables at the macroeconomic and sectoral level it enables judgements to be made about their effectiveness in reaching specified targets and their feasibility.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper seeks to unify and extend a number of recent directions in macro-economic research. Firstly, there has been a tendency to introduce new factors and to unify their treatment. Thus imported raw materials together with floating exchange rates are now an established part of the literature. This has naturally led to the introduction of real wage rigidity as an essential element in the study of transmission of impulses between countries. Yet the unified treatment of such factors in a macro-econometric model is rare, the empirical work being mainly of the Single equation on reduced form variety. The empirical work on real wages and employment is a good example (see Sachs, 1983, for a review). In addition most macro-econometric modeis are Keynesian in construction, the supply side being relatively poorly developed.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: From the 194O's until the late 196O's,the unchallenged ruler of the intellectual kingdom of economics was a paradigm which - for lack of a better name - we shall simply call mainstream economics. Broadly speaking, mainstream economics may be described as a well-composed menu of quite distinct analytical tool-boxes which are eclectically used to solve the relevant problems at hand: neoclassical theory in the microeconomic domain, keynesian theory in the macroeconomic domain, and paretian welfare theory in the domain of normative economics.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The purpose of this essay is to investigate the possible economic consequences of the recent German steel subsidy program and assess to what extent those consequences conform with the objectives which motivated that program's adoption. The paper is organized as follows: Particular developments in the steel industry are briefly described in section II, while in section III, the political economy of protection in Germany is examined to determine the primary beneficiaries of previous protectionist policies. Both serve as a basis for identifying the revealed political objectives behind the current steel program. The next step is to simulate the economic consequences of a decline in the world market price of steel in the absence of any government intervention, using a multi-sectoral general equilibrium model of an open economy that resembles Germany. The economic impacts of a sectoral policy response and a regional policy response are then likewise examined and compared. This occurs in section V. The main elements and assumptions of the model used are outlined in section IV; the complete model specification is presented in an appendix. Conclusions are drawn in section VI.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: One of the main still unresolved issues discussed at the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea has been the potential impact of the recovery of cobalt, copper, manganese and nickel from seabed nodules on the markets of those metals. It has been argued that the start of seabed mining could significantly affect both prices and production if a free entry regime prevailed. In order to provide a sound empirical basis for further discussions of this topic the present study aims at quantifying the potential effects of seabed mining on the cobalt market. First, an econometric model of the world cobalt industry is specified and estimated. Next, the model is simulated for different scenarios: no exogenous change, the start of the stockpiling of cobalt by the US government, and the start of seabed mining. The study concludes that the reduction in cobalt prices, as a result of seabed mining, will be drastic, particularly in the free entry case, and that the major revenue loser will be Zaire, the world's largest producer of cobalt.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The large OPEC-engineered real world oil price increases of the early and late 1970's have set in train, via a highly integrated international trade and finance system, significant resource transfers from energy-poor to energy-rich countries. In accommodating these resource transfers both energy exporting and importing economies have been confronted with adjustment pressures. In the case of the former group, these adjustment pressures have arisen from the need for these economies to accommodate a favourable shift in their foreign terms of trade, ostensibly by way of a redirection of resources from the international to the domestic account, thus permitting higher real national income. For energy-poor countries however the required adjustment process has much less palatable consequences for economic growth and the real income aspirations of the populations. Our concern in this paper is with a subset of the latter group - the so-called oil-poor developing countries. We focus in considerable detail on four such economies; Kenya, South Korea, Ivory Coast and Turkey. As well as representing various levels of oil 'poorness' these countries exhibit interesting differences in resource endowments, the industrial composition of their gross domestic products, the oil intensity of their industrial production technologies, the skill composition of their labour forces, their openness to world trade and their commodity composition of exports and imports. By means of multisectoral economy-wide models for each of these countries, we quantify the nature and extent of the adjustment pressures imposed on them by what has now become known as the second OPEC oil shock of 1978-80.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The instability of export earnings in LDCs and its presumably harmful economic effects have been broadly discussed in the economic literature and among policy makers in international meetings. In analyzing these effects, the destabilization of producer incomes and farmers' risk response play a prominent role. Producer incomes may be destabilized by either domestic factors on the supply side (yield instability due to weather, crop diseases, etc.), or by fluctuating producer prices reflecting the instability of international primary commodity markets. If unstable producer incomes induce risk aversion among farmers, the sectoral factor input will be reduced and will be suboptimal from a welfare point of view, thus possibly hampering economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the effects of producer income instability on farmers' planting and long-run supply decisions in the coffee, tea, and sisal production of the Kenyan large farm sector. Coffee, tea, and sisal are the leading Kenyan export crops, the domestic consumption of which is negligible. About half of the Kenyan coffee and tea, and all the sisal are grown in the large farm sector, and nearly always on plantations. Coffee, tea, and sisal are permanent crops the planting of which requires long-run decisions. It is the long-run we shall focus on in this paper; hence the influence of income instability on short-term production planning will be neglected. The analysis will be based on a time series approach covering the period 1951-1975. In the following section we shall develop the methodological framework of how to measure the risk response of farmers. Next the estimation equations will be specified, and the estimation techniques will be demonstrated. Subsequently, the regression results are presented and interpreted. Some tentative conclusions are drawn in the final section.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: At a time when protectionist tendencies are on the upswing world wide once again, it is important to gain evidence on the cause of such movements. Proper diagnosis of the determinants of protection may provide a more promising avenue to avoiding discriminatory economic policies than reiteration of the welfare losses of protection has been able to do. For this purpose Germany constitutes a potentially fruitful case study. First, historically, economic and political regimes have varied widely. Second, institutional conditions at the present are unique enough to warrant and require a closer look at the mechanisms which provide protection. Third, Germany constitutes a large and still relatively liberal market for the products of the less developed and newly industrialized countries. Hence, trade policy developments in Germany are likely to lead to serious repercussions in those countries. The general framework chosen for analysis of German protective mechanisms posits the existence of a political market for protection, and follows from the work of Downs (1957), Buchanan and Tullock (1962), and Ohlson (1965), as well as the application of this principle to international trade and protection issues by a number of authors. Very briefly, the demand for protection on the part of producing units is derived from firms' opportunity costs in eliciting protection; and the supply of protection is derived from governments' opportunity cost in granting protection. In applying this guiding hypothesis to Germany, explanatory variables are sought which messure or proxy those opportunity costs, both on average over time, and across industries at a point in time. The specific hypotheses tested must in part be derived from institutional features peculiar to Germany. In the next section of this paper, this framework is applied historically to the period 1880 - 1978, and in the section thereafter, it is applied to explain the structure of protection in manufacturing industries in 1974. Developments since then are briefly discussed.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The elasticity of substitution concept has become one of the mainstays in the measurement of price responsiveness not only in production theory, where it originates, but also in the study of international trade. It has been applied, for example, in the context of the world demand for exports from two competing sources (Richardson (1973), Zelder (1958)),to estimate one country's relative demand for imports from competing foreign sources (Hickman and Lau (1973), Morgan and Corlett (1951)), and to estimate one country's demand for imports relative to domestic substitutes (Alaouze (1\9 77), Mutti (1977)). The present paper pursues the last issue by examining the elasticity of substitution between the demand for commodity imports and domestic substitutes in the Federal Republic of Germany, using data disaggregated at an industry level.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: At the latest since 1978, international shifts in the demand for money have widely been recognized as a major problem for monetary-policy making under flexible exchange rates. To the extent that such shifts are unpredictable, the case for monetary preannouncement is weakened (Giersch, 1977; Girton, Roper, 1978; Sachverständigenrat, 1978/9; Vaubel, 1980). To the extent that they are unidentifiable once they occur, the case for flexible exchange rates is weakened (Giersch, 1977; King et al., 1977; Sachverständigenrat, 1978/9; Vaubel, 1980). Empirical identification of international shifts in the demand for money (or, what is the same, of currency substitution in demand) has been attempted though estimation of money-demand functions and exchange-rate functions. Concentrating on international stock shifts in the demand for money rather than on portfolio-growth effects (which are likely to be far less volatile), most researchers used the forward premium/discount or, what is approximately the same, the international interest- rate differential as the most promising determinant of currency substitution; for these variables reflect the expected difference in the opportunity cost of holding the monies concerned if interest is not paid on money balances or on required reserves.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: In Germany since early 1981 a consensus has emerged predicting that an economic recovery is due for the second half of the year. This forecast of an upturn was put-forth for 1981 and for 1982. Despite these consensus, the forecasts proved to be wrong. Nonetheless in autumn 1982 the consensus forecast for 1983 again explicitly included a recovery starting mid-year, and again the forecast seems to be proving to be wrong. This time, however, the failure is not forecasting a recovery, only to find out its not there, but rather miscalculating in the other direction as the economic recovery has already been' on the move since the beginning of 1983.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The first part of the paper describes the main features of the world copper industry, including consumption, inventories, prices, trade, primary and secondary supply as well as reserves and resources. In the second part an econometric model of the world copper market is derived; theoretical and empirical justifications are provided for some representative equations. Finally, the third part of the paper deals with the results of forecasting and simulation experiments performed with this model. A conditional forecast of the major future developments in the world copper industry and an assessment of the likely impact of ocean floor mining on the copper market constitute the main topics discussed in this part. Base case simulation results (without seabed mining) are reported and compared to three alternative scenarios assuming different recovery rates for copper from deep sea manganese nodules.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: In this paper a general equilibrium model of Chile will be applied to quantify (a) the requirements for real exchange rate stabilization in a commodity exporting country, (b) the implications of nominal exchange rate and price level stabilization, and (c) short-run benefits and long-run costs of using compensatory finance. The analysis will be done under conditions of both a closed and an open capital account. The recent Chilean experience, which will be sketched in chapter II, provides an almost ideal case for such endeavour. The model will be outlined in chapter III and documented in the Appendix. Results will be presented in chapter IV and conclusions drawn in chapter V.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: After two and a half decades of prosperous postwar development, western industrialised countries recently experienced a slowdown of economic growth and productivity advance together with an increase in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The deep recession of 1974/75 has uncovered fundamental structural weaknesses; since then, the advanced economies have not regained the momentum of the 1960s. In this paper, we shall attempt to contribute to a better understanding of this malaise. But as our comparative advantage is not in growth-accounting and as we do not believe that we can single out one or two specific causes, we shall merely aim at forming an idea (perhaps only a rather vague one) which might be further developed into a paradigm or research programme (in Lakatos' sense).
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Until recently the concept of tax expenditures has been exclusively analyzed along traditional Pigouvian lines. Broadly speaking, the introduction of tax/subsidy-schemes was considered to be justified whenever large number externalities prevent the market from working efficiently. This approach - while fruitful and important in its own right - neglects a fundamental policy problem, namely the public choice option between tax expenditures and direct government spending: independent of any welfare theoretic rationale for public intervention, there remains the question which kind of intervention - tax expenditure (implicit subsidization) or direct expenditure - is the most efficient solution.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This is an empirical study on the exchange rate between the Swiss Franc and the Deutsche Mark. We are using a priori theoretical reasoning in order to determine a set of variables which appear capable of explaining real exchange rate changes. These variables may themselves be to some extent determined by changes in the exchange rate. A priori, the direction of causality is left open and brought to our knowledge by a search process for Granger-causality among this set of variables. This study tries to back up or refute, as the case may arrive, pieces of economic theory. We consider the theory of measurement, the methodology of measurement and the data as given for the time being. Any result that may be obtained in this way is thus limited in its stability as it is valid only relative to the above implicit assumptions.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The direct foreign investment (DFI) process refers collectively to the initiation and formalization of the DFI idea, the application to and negotiations with the host-country government for DFI authorization, the implementation of the DFI project, and its actual private profitability relative to the initial and present expectations of the investors. Throughout the analysis of our quantitative findings, we will frequently refer to the results of our interviews with the executives of DFI firms and Turkish government officials. Our objective in doing so will be both to compare the questionnaire results with those of the interviews and to clarify the former in terms of the latter.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The role of the futures markets in stabilising spot prices has been widely discussed. However, the success of these markets in performing the stabilising function critically depends on whether they are efficient (Fama 181, page 383) in the sense that the futures prices fully reflect the available information. The question of futures market efficiency has assumed greater relevance in view of the recent UNCTAD proposals to stabilise the prices of primary commodities exported mainly by the developing countries. The Integrated Programme for Commodities put forward by the Group of 77 at UNCTAD IV in 1976 calls for the establishment of buffer stocks for 18 such commodities. The recent developments show, however, that the political as well as the economic success of the UNCTAD schemes is rather doubtful. Under these circumstances, the feasibility of other efficient market oriented alternatives for stabilising commodity prices needs to be examined. Further, it could be argued that theoretically the case for buffer stocks for stabilising prices rests in part on the lack of sufficient and rational speculators in these markets. For, if futures markets reflect the available information and provide efficient forecasts of the future spot prices, the rationale for UNCTAD schemes is somewhat weakened. In this paper, we test the efficiency of futures markets for five of the commodities in the UNCTAD list. At the outset, we discuss various approaches for testing the efficiency of futures markets. A semi-strong' test is then performed. The data, the models and the results are presented in sections III through V. The concluding comments and the economic implications are discussed in the last section.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Computable general equilibrium models are used to study the short-run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on the economies of Colombia, Ivory Coast and Kenya. The results indicate that these economies are destabilized by primary commodity price fluctuations unless governments act to hold real domestic absorption constant. To achieve this, however, would require foreign exchange reserves in excess of the level normally available to these governments for the purpose of stabilising, domestic economic activity.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: A feature of the economies of many less developed countries (LDC's) is their heavy reliance for foreign exchange earnings on a few export commodities whose markets are characterised by low income elasticities on the demand side and whose supply is continually expanding under the influence of improved production technologies while remaining highly sensitive to year weather conditions. Given these commodity market characteristics, such economies, unless they reduce their high export concentration in these commodities, are faced with both an unstable export earnings pattern and a long run deterioration in their terms of trade. It is not surprising therefore that these countries have in recent years under the guidance of the UNCTAD Secretariat, shown increasing interest in proposals to conclude international commodity agreements or producer cartels in selected commodity markets with the aim of both raising the prices of the commodities concerned and reducing their year to year variability. Implicit in such proposals is an attempt to at least halt if not reverse the flow of resources from the less wealthy producing countries to the more wealthy consuming countries which is taking place through the decline in many low energy content raw materials prices relative to world commodity prices in general. The central task of this paper is to specify a model system capable of addressing the above issues. In outline the entire system consists of a set of individual country models each linked to a single entity (interpreted as the rest of the world) via a set of rest of the world demand and supply equations for the commodities produced by each country. The framework makes no provision however for formal linkages between specific country models. Only one system of country model equations is specified. This system has however sufficient flexibility to accommodate the relevant country specific structural and institutional features. Since the central aim of the project is to quantify and explain the economic implications across countries of a given exogenous shock, the choice of a unique model design ensures that variations in response across /countries can be attributed solely to specific features of each economy and not to differences in model specification. Furthermore, by working with a single framework computing requirements are greatly simplified.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper deals with some questions concerning monetary policy in Switzerland. Switzerland is an interesting case to study because the country is relatively small and correspondingly the total amount of Swiss franc holdings in the Swiss commercial banking System and in the Euromarkets is small in comparison to the same figures for some other currencies. The Swiss franc, however, appears to be subjected to remarkable changes in its appreciation by foreigners. Periods of strongly rising demand for the Swiss franc were followed by much more constricted views of the international community of wealth holders on the potential to gain from holding Swiss francs. Periods of sharp real appreciations were followed by intervals of time during which the Swiss franc depreciated even in nominal terms. Thus the central bank of Switzerland has to perform a rather difficult task because is faces obstacles which appear magnified when compared to other countries. This study sorts out the goals of Swiss monetary policy, and it also provides some normative Statements which will be put forward hesitatingly, and with due caution because the relevant monetary theory still is in a process of being created.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The point of reference for this paper is the theoretical structure of disaggregated, general equilibrium models of the ORANI type, as outlined in Dixon et al. (1982) and Vincent (1981). This theoretical structure has been applied in a variety of contexts, with particular models differing widely, depending on data availability and the purpose at hand. However, all applications use some subset of the theoretical structure described by Dixon et al. and Vincent. These references are therefore taken as benchmarks, from a theoretical viewpoint.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Net investment plays a crucial role for the economic development of a country. It contributes to the growth of real income and to the supply of jobs. Therefore, in view of sluggish growth and rising unemployment in Germany, the government as well as the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Council of Economic Experts have repeatedly pointed out the need to promote overall investment. Looking at the share of fixed investment in GDP in the German economy which is relatively high by international standards the complaints about the weakness of investment appear to be somewhat exaggerated. However, a closer look at the investment numbers published by the Deutsche Bundesbank (1983a, 1984) shows that the structure of domestic capital formation has changed dramatically since 1960. While investment by the non-financial business sector excluding housing accounted for 55 per cent of total investment in 1960, it has declined to some 30 per cent in the early 1980s (Figure 1) . Investment in residential construction and public investment have increased their share from about 44 per cent to more than two thirds in the early 1980s. Thus, instead of using more resources for enlarging and improving productive capacities, an increasing share of domestic savings has been channeled into projects the choice of which has not been made according to private profitability but from the point of view of social benefits. Among these projects are expenditures on infrastructure, public swimming pools, city halls, hospitals, family homes etc., which increase social consumption but hardly contribute to improve the competitiveness of the German industry in domestic and in international markets.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The above quotes exemplify quite well the strange world in which we live: on the one hand governments over the last 30 years have generally attempted to enact measures to liberalize international trade (and as a matter of fact the movement of factors of production) so as to be able to profit - in the form of higher employment levels - from a more efficient allocation of resources. On the other hand, in many of the same countries governments (and/or unions) have effected (or supported) measures for domestic labor markets, the impact of which runs counter to the expected gains from a reduction in trade barriers. In other words, while a rapid expansion of international trade may have contributed significantly to creating employment, measures affecting the training, employment, remuneration and/or social security of the working-age population may well have caused jobs or job opportunities to disappear or job-seeking activities to be otherwise structured.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The OPEC Cartel's spectacular success in raising real world oil prices over the past decade has brought about substantial net resource transfers from energy poor to energy rich countries within the world economy. In accomodating these resource transfers both energy exporting and importing economies have been confronted with adjustment pressures. Of course the intensity and nature of these adjustment pressures has differed substantially between countries according to amongst other things a country's resource endowment, its net trade position with respect to oil and other energy based products and the degree of openness of its economy to world trade. Our concern in this paper is with quantifying the short and medium term adjustment pressures imposed on the South Korean economy assuming continued increases in real world oil prices. The results are derived from a multisectoral general equilibrium model. A feature of the model is its design flexibility and simple solution algorithm. We exploit this in the present study by comparing results for a range of experiments to accommodate differing assumptions about the Korean macroeconomic environment, labour market behaviour and Korean export demand. While the numerical results refer specifically to Korea, it is to be hoped that by rationalising them in terms of the underlying structural features inherent in the Korean economy the paper provides some guidance on the sorts of adjustment pressures likely to confront energy poor open economies assuming a continued movement in the world terms of trade towards oil.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The purpose of this paper is to assess the main factors causing the impasse which the EC has reached. The next section examines the lack of consensus of the member states on the aims of the EC and on the means to achieve them. Subsequently, this is related to the EC enlargement. Finally, recommendations will be made on major policy issues in order to provide a new stimulus to the integration process in Western Europe.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Three causality tests, Haugh, Granger and Sims are used to determine the nature of causal relationship between the components of monetary base of India, Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan. The conclusion derived is that bidirectional causality exists between the changes in domestic credit and changes in international reserves for all four countries.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: In the course of the last quarter century increased attention has been drawn towards measures aimed at promoting economic growth by allowing economic activities to be set up in special delimited areas and freeing them therein from many distortions otherwise shackling the economy. This idea, which can be traced back to the free ports of the ancient city-states along the eastern and southern rim of the Mediterranean as well as to the Hansaleague, has received impetus in recent times from two main sources. First of all, the initial success which various fastgrowing, newly industrialized countries (NICs) seemed to have had with economic activity zones soon produced numerous emulations as other countries sought ways to profit from freer trade without necessarily having to open up the entire economy. Second, and more recently, interest in such instruments has been spreading all the faster, the longer the current economic malaise lasts and the greater their potential is perceived as being capable of reactivating those market forces whose slipping into dormancy created a lethargic economy.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: The sarcasm of Baetiat almost 150 years ago quite aptly and in all seriousness covers a fair share of the arguments raised whenever foreign industries are more competitive than domestic ones. Vested interests, ranging from employers and employees to unions and elected officials, arouse support around the well-known protectionist arguments, among which the employment issue plays a central role. Such is the case with the Multifibre Agreement (MFA), which came into being under the umbrella of GATT, itself (ironically enough) born out of the recognition of the need to ensure full employment and a steadily increasing volume of real income (see GATT Preamble). This paper first gives a brief overview of the scope of the problem; attention is then drawn to certain theoretical and policybased incongruences before moving on to some statistical underpinnings.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: Argentina has made the headlines of international media not only for its successful return to democratic political rules in December 1983 but also for its renewed slump into economic crisis. The country is no longer able to meet the debt servicing requirements and to repay loans due this year while auspices for rescheduling and extending foreign debt are bleak. As a corollary tovexternal problems, there are high public sector deficits, inflation is accelerating at a galopping pace, and net private investment has turned negative. Up to now, the new democratic government has not lived up to expectations since it did not present a reform package designed to overcome the severe economic problems of the country. Rather, the government has relied on some ad-hoc emergency measures in an attempt to prevent the crisis from turning into catastrophy.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: This paper employs country specific multisectoral general equilibrium models of Turkey, Kenya and India to study the adjustment problems confronting these countries. The affects of liberal and interventionist policies on GDP and on incomes of different classes are analysed. The results show that liberal policies minimise the GDP losses and that farmers are relatively better off under these policies.
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    Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-09-06
    Description: It is the purpose of this paper to correct some of these shortcomings and to lengthen the time horizon in the public debate about exchange rates, notably about the dollar/DM rate. Long-term interest rates, most of all the real rate of interest and the profitability of investment, will be brought into focus. The hypothesis emerging from this paper is that the dollar is likely to remain strong for fundamental reasons, i.e. for reasons rooted in the real sectors of the American and European economies. Temporary declines for short-term reasons are, of course, not excluded. They should, therefore, not be viewed as disproving the central thesis: what matters in the longer run are the vitality of an economy and its place and role in world economic development.
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