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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis  (25)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability  (10)
  • 04.02. Exploration geophysics
  • Creep observations and analysis
  • Seismological Society of America  (28)
  • Wiley  (6)
  • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia  (4)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: The assessment of earthquake forecast models for practical purposes requires more than simply checking model consistency in a statistical framework. One also needs to understand how to construct the best model for specific forecasting applications. We describe a Bayesian approach to evaluating earthquake forecasting models, and we consider related procedures for constructing ensemble forecasts. We show how evaluations based on Bayes factors, which measure the relative skill among forecasts, can be complementary to common goodness-of-fit tests used to measure the absolute consistency of forecasts with data. To construct ensemble forecasts, we consider averages across a forecast set, weighted by either posterior probabilities or inverse log- likelihoods derived during prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. We account for model correlations by conditioning weights using the Garthwaite–Mubwandarikwa capped eigenvalue scheme. We apply these methods to the Regional Earthquake Like- lihood Models (RELM) five-year earthquake forecast experiment in California, and we discuss how this approach can be generalized to other ensemble forecasting applications. Specific applications of seismological importance include experiments being conducted within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and ensemble methods for operational earthquake forecasting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2574 – 2584
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: earthquake forecasting ; ensemble model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-14
    Description: Southwestern Sicily is an area of infrequent seismic activity; however, some studies carried out in the archaeological Selinunte site suggest that, between the fourth century BC and the early Middle Ages, probably at least two earthquakes strucked this area with enough energy to damage and cause the collapse and kinematics of much of the architecture of Selinunte. Take into account that, in 2008, a noninvasive archaeological prospection and traditional data gathering methods along the Acropolis north fortifications were carried out. Following these first studies, after about 10 years, a new geophysical campaign was carried out. This second campaign benefited from the application of modern technologies for the acquisition and processing of the point cloud data on the northern part of the Acropolis, like terrestrial laser scanning and unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry. In this paper, we present the application of these techniques and a strategy for their integration for the 3D modelling of buildings and cultural heritages. We show how the integration of data acquired independently by these two techniques is an added value able to overcome the intrinsic limits of the individual techniques. The application to Selinunte's Acropolis allowed it to highlight and measure with high accuracy fractures, dislocation, inclinations of walls, depressions of some areas and other interesting observations, which may be important starting points for future investigations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 153-165
    Description: 2IT. Laboratori analitici e sperimentali
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 3D reconstruction ; archaeological survey ; digital elevation model ; Selinunte Archaeological Park ; terrestrial laser scanning ; unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest ; 04.02. Exploration geophysics ; 05.02. Data dissemination ; 05.06. Methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: Branching processes provide an accurate description of earthquake occurrence in the short term (days to a few weeks). Yet, the implementation of these models is not usually straightforward because of the difficulties in estimating the parameters. Indeed, log-likelihood estimation involves a spatial integral that cannot be analytically evaluated and is difficult to implement in numerical codes. Here we present a novel technique that allows for an accurate, stable, and relatively fast param- eter inversion procedure. We study the efficiency of this technique using synthetic epidemic-type aftershock sequence catalogs with a set of parameters known a priori. Results show the efficiency of the novel technique and illustrate the limits of recently proposed approximations
    Description: Published
    Description: 985 – 994
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: etas model ; parameter estimation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-12-22
    Description: The determination of regional attenuation Q^-1 can depend upon the analysis method employed. The discrepancies between methods are due to differing parameterizations (e.g., geometrical spreading rates), employed datasets (e.g., choice of path lengths and sources), and the methodologies themselves (e.g., measurement in the frequency or time domain). Here we apply five different attenuation methodologies to a Northern California dataset. The methods are: (1) coda normalization (CN), (2) two-station (TS), (3) reverse two-station (RTS), (4) source-pair/receiver-pair (SPRP), and (5) coda-source normalization (CS). The methods are used to measure Q of the regional phase, Lg (QLg), and its power-law dependence on frequency of the form Q0fη with controlled parameterization in the well-studied region of Northern California using a high-quality dataset from the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network. We investigate the difference in power-law Q calculated among the methods by focusing on the San Francisco Bay Area, where knowledge of attenuation is an important part of seismic hazard mitigation. This approximately homogeneous subset of our data lies in a small region along the Franciscan block. All methods return similar power-law parameters, though the range of the joint 95% confidence regions is large (Q0 = 85 ± 40; η = 0.65 ± 0.35). The RTS and TS methods differ the most from the other methods and from each other. This may be due to the removal of the site term in the RTS method, which is shown to be significant in the San Francisco Bay Area. In order to completely understand the range of power-law Q in a region, it is advisable to use several methods to calculate the model. We also test the sensitivity of each method to changes in geometrical spreading, Lg frequency bandwidth, the distance range of data, and the Lg measurement window. For a given method, there are significant differences in the power-law parameters, Q0 and η, due to perturbations in the parameterization when evaluated using a conservative pairwise comparison. The CN method is affected most by changes in the distance range, which is most probably due to its fixed coda measurement window. Since, the CS method is best used to calculate the total path attenuation, it is very sensitive to the geometrical spreading assumption. The TS method is most sensitive to the frequency bandwidth, which may be due to its incomplete extraction of the site term. The RTS method is insensitive to parameterization choice, whereas the SPRP method as implemented here in the time-domain for a single path has great error in the power-law model parameters and η is strongly affected by changes in the method parameterization. When presenting results for a given method it is best to calculate Q0f^η for multiple parameterizations using some a priori distribution.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2033–2046
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Q attenuation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-12-09
    Description: We describe the setting up of the first earthquake forecasting experiment for Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). CSEP conducts rigorous and truly prospective forecast experiments for different tectonic environments in several forecast testing centers around the globe; forecasts are issued for a future period and also tested only against future observations to avoid any possible bias. As such, experiments need to be completely defined. This includes exact definitions of the testing area, of learning data for the forecast models, and of observation data against which forecasts will be tested to evaluate their performance. Here we present the rules, as taken from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment and extended or changed for the Italian experiment. We also present characterizations of learning and observational catalogs that describe the completeness of these catalogs and illuminate inhomogeneities of magnitudes between these catalogs. A particular focus lies on the stability of earthquake recordings of the observational network. These catalog investigations provide guidance for CSEP modelers for developing earthquakes forecasts for submission to the forecast experiment in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-9
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: 5.1. TTC - Banche dati e metodi macrosismici
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Statistical analysis ; Earthquake interactions and probability ; Seismic risk ; Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: We analyze the dispersion characteristics of ambient noise vibrations. For this purpose, two-dimensional (2D) seismic array data were acquired in four different sites in the Colfiorito plain, an alluvial intramountain basin that exhibits strong site effects. Assuming seismic noise being mainly composed of surface waves, we derive one-dimensional (1D) shallow shear-velocity profiles through the inversion of dispersion curves measured by frequency–wavenumber (f-k) methods. The inverted shear-wave velocity profiles are consistent with a priori information for those sites that can be approximated by 1D simple models. In these cases, the use of passive records of seismic vibrations can be a valuable tool for determining the shallow velocity profile if a detailed depiction of velocity structure is not required. The theoretical dispersion curves for Rayleigh and Love waves were compared with the measured dispersion curves for vertical and horizontal components, respectively. This allows us to discuss qualitatively the composition of ambient vibrations (outlining a large proportion of Love waves in the noise wave field) and the effects of higher modes. We also use the single-station method for investigating the origin of the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) peak in the plain of Colfiorito in terms of ellipticity of the fundamental Rayleigh mode.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1915-1933
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: surface waves, microtremor, f-k 2D analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 1456132 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: The aim of this work is to infer the slip distribution and rupture velocity along the rupture zone of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake from available tide gage records of the tsunami. We selected waveforms from 14 stations, distributed along the coast of the Indian Ocean. Then we subdivided the fault plane into 16 subfaults (both along strike and downdip) following the geometry and mechanism proposed by Banerjee et al. (2005) and computed the corresponding Green’s functions by numerical solution of the shallow-water equations through a finitedifference method. The slip distribution and rupture velocity were determined simultaneously by means of a simulated annealing technique. We compared the recorded and synthetic waveforms in the time domain, using a cost function that is a trade-off between the L1 and L2 norms. Preliminary tests on a synthetic dataset, together with a posteriori statistical analysis of the model ensemble enabled us to assess the effectiveness of the method and to quantify the model uncertainty. The main finding is that the best source model features a nonuniform distribution of coseismic slip, with high slip values concentrated into three main patches: the first is located in the southern part of the fault, off the coast of the Aceh Province; the second between 6.5 N and 11 N; and the third at depth, between 11 N and 14 N. Furthermore, we estimated that the rupture propagated at an average speed of 2.0 km/sec.
    Description: Published
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake ; Tsunami ; Waveform Inversion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We have analyzed the aftershocks (ML 4.5) following the 1999 Izmit earthquake (Mw 7.4) to infer the frequency-dependent attenuation characteristics of both P and S waves, in the frequency range from 1 to 10 Hz and in the distance range from 10 to 140 km. A linear-predictive model is assumed to describe the spectral amplitudes in terms of attenuation and source contributions. The results show that both P and S waves undergo a strong attenuation along ray paths shorter than 40 km, while the secondary arrivals significantly contribute to the spectral amplitudes over the distance range from 40 to 60 km, as also confirmed by the computation of synthetic seismograms. For longer ray paths, the decrease in attenuation suggests an increase in the propagation efficiency with depth. Finally, the spectral attenuation curves are flattened, or sloped upward at low frequencies in the range from 100 to 140 km, due to the contemporary arrivals of direct waves and postcritical reflections from the Moho. In terms of geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, the attenuation in the range from 10 to 40 km is well described by a spreading coefficient n 1 for both P and S waves, and the quality factors can be approximated by QS( f ) 17f 0.80 for 1 f 10 Hz and QP( f ) 56f 0.25 for 2.5 f 10 Hz. For ray paths in the range from 60 to 80 km, the attenuation weakens but the interaction between seismic waves and propagation medium is more complex. The multilapse time window analysis (MLTWA) is applied to quantify the amount of scattering loss and intrinsic absorption for S waves. The seismic albedo B0 decreases from 0.5 at 1 Hz to 0.3 at 10 Hz, while the total quality factor QT increases from about 56 to 408. The multiple lapse time-window analysis (MLTWA) results provide only an average estimate of the attenuation properties in the range from 10 to 80 km. In fact, by neglecting the variation of attenuation with depth, the MLTWA results underestimate attenuation for distances less than 40 km, and do not capture the significant features caused by the integrated energy of the secondary arrivals observed in the range from 40 to 60 km.
    Description: Published
    Description: 200-214
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Abstract We present an update of the local magnitude scale previously calibrated for northwestern Turkey by Baumbach et al. (2003). The path coverage in the westernmost part of the analyzed area has been increased, as well as the number of amplitudes for distance greater than 110 km. Furthermore, a set of recordings from accelerometric stations operated by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) has been merged with the recordings by the Sapanca-Bolu and German Task Force seismological networks. In all, 4047 recordings from 528 earthquakes recorded by 31 seismometers and 23 accelerometers are considered to calibrate the local magnitude scale over a hypocentral distance range from 10 to 190 km. By analyzing the unit covariance matrix and the resolution matrix, we show how the source-to-station geometries of the seismic and strong-motion networks affect the uncertainties of the computed station corrections, attenuation coefficients, and magnitudes. The assumptions made concerning the reference station correction, and the change in the amplification for the Wood–Anderson torsion seismograph from 2800 to 2080 (Uhrhammer and Collins, 1990) introduced an offset of about 0.34 in the magnitudes with respect to Baumbach et al. (2003), with the updated local magnitude scale ranges from 0.50 to 5.91. The distribution of the residuals with distance confirms that the extension of both the magnitude and distance ranges and the improved path coverage have preserved the high quality that characterized the data set analyzed by Baumbach et al. (2003).
    Description: Published
    Description: 331-338
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: local magnitude ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Seismological Society of America
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Abstract Rapid estimates of source parameters are needed for reasons of civil protection in regions where destructive events often occur. This information can prevent further damage and casualties. A relation between the first seconds of a P- wave onset and the local magnitude ML of the earthquake has been developed for the Italy region following results obtained in Japan and Southern California. The proposed dominant period estimate has been used in the present work and it gives reliable results from which to evaluate the size of the earthquake. The data set we evaluated consists of about 20,000 earthquakes that occurred in Italy and were well recorded by the stations of the MedNet Network. The proposed relationship will be one basis for developing and implementing an earthquake early warning system in Italy capable of delivering a rapid alert only a few seconds after the occurrence of a potentially destructive earthquake in the area. Recent extensive improvements of the Italian National Seismic Network, together with this new technique, will make pos- sible the release of a robust magnitude estimate no later than 10 sec after the occur- rence of the earthquake. However, no data are available for earthquakes with mag- nitudes ML
    Description: Published
    Description: 1750-1755
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Magnitude ; early warning ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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