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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (18)
  • Rock mechanics
  • Springer Berlin Heidelberg  (11)
  • Geological Society of London  (7)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • Wiley
  • 1
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    Exploring the influence of vent location and eruption style on tephra fall hazard from the Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (2015)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Uncertainties in modelling volcanic hazards are often amplified in geographically large systems and in volcanoes which have a diverse eruption history that comprises variable eruption compositions and styles from different vent locations. The large ~ 700 km2 Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is a large silicic caldera complex in a geodynamic region of New Zealand which has displayed a range of eruption styles and compositions over its current phase of activity (26 ka - present), including one basaltic maar-forming eruption, one basaltic Plinian eruption, and nine rhyolitic Plinian eruptions. All three of these eruption styles have occurred within the past 3.5 ky, and any of these styles could occur in the event of a future eruption. The location of a future eruption is also unknown. Future vents could potentially open in one of three different possible areas of the OVC: the Tarawera linear vent zone (LVZ) (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), the Haroharo LVZ (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), or outside of these LVZs (1 eruption over the past 26 ky). A future rhyolitic or basaltic Plinian eruption from the OVC is likely to generate widespread tephra fall in loads that will cause significant disruption and socio- economic impacts throughout the surrounding region. Past OVC tephra studies have focused on evaluating hazard from a rhyolitic Plinian eruption at select vent locations in the OVC's Tarawera LVZ. Here, we expand upon these past studies by evaluating tephra hazard for all possible OVC eruption vent areas and for both rhyolitic and basaltic Plinian eruption styles, and exploring how these parameters influence tephra hazard forecasts. Probabilistic volcanic hazard model BET_VH and advection-diffusion tephra hazard model TEPHRA2 were used to assess the hazard of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra from both basaltic Plinian and rhyolitic Plinian eruption styles, occurring from within the Tarawera LVZ, the Haroharo LVZ, and other potential vent areas within the caldera. We present the results of these analyses as a first-order tephra hazard assessment for the entire OVC. Our results highlight the importance of considering all the potential vent locations of a volcanic system, in order to capture the full eruption catalogue in analyses (e.g., 11 eruptions over 26 ky for the OVC, versus only 5 eruptions over 26 ky for the Tarawera LVZ), as well as the full potential distribution of tephra hazard. Although the Tarawera LVZ has been prominently discussed in studies of OVC hazard because of is recent activity (1886 and ~1315 AD), we find that, in the event of future eruption, the likelihood of a vent opening within the Haroharo LVZ (last eruption 5.6 ka) is equivalent (〈 1% difference) to that for the Tarawera LVZ (31.8% compared to 32.5%). We also find that an eruption from within the Haroharo LVZ presents a relatively higher hazard to several localities, such as the town of Kawerau, where the average absolute probability of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra is 1.3 times greater than for an eruption from within the Tarawera LVZ. While the absolute probabilities of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra in the next one year from a basaltic Plinian eruption are on average 7.2 times lower than for a rhyolitic Plinian eruption throughout the surrounding region, our results suggest that the hazard posed by a basaltic Plinian eruption does contribute to the overall OVC tephra hazard, raising absolute probabilities for the entire OVC by an order of 0.14, which may have implications when considering sensitive decision-making thresholds.
    Description: Published
    Description: 38
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: PVHA ; Okataina Volcanic Centre ; BET_VH ; TEPHRA2 ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Dynamic feeder dyke systems in basaltic volcanoes: the exceptional example o fthe 1809 Etna eruption (Italy) (2015)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we describe the 1809 eruption of Mt. Etna, Italy, which represents one historical rare case in which it is possible to observe details of the internal structure of the feeder system. This is possible thanks to the presence of two large pit craters located in the middle of the eruptive fracture field that allow studying a section of the shallow feeder system. Along the walls of one of these craters, we analysed well-exposed cross sections of the uppermost 15–20 m of the feeder system and related volcanic products. Here, we describe the structure, morphology and lithology of this portion of the 1809 feeder system, including the host rock which conditioned the propagation of the dyke, and compare the results with other recent eruptions. Finally, we propose the dynamic model of the magma behaviour inside a laterally-propagating feeder dyke, demonstrating how this dynamic triggered important changes in the eruptive style (from effusive/Strombolian to phreatomagmatic) during the same eruption. Our results are also useful for hazard assessment related to the development of flank eruptions, potentially the most hazardous type of eruption from basaltic volcanoes in densely urbanized areas, such as Mt. Etna.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-11
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: feeder dyke ; basaltic volcanoes ; flank eruptions ; Etna ; volcanic hazards ; sill ; volcanic rift ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Pyroclastic density currents at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy): a case study of the 1930 eruption (2015)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Pyroclastic density currents (PDC) related to paroxysmal eruptions have caused a large number of casualties in the recent history of Stromboli. We combine here a critical review of historical chronicles with detailed stratigraphic,textural, and petrographic analyses of PDC deposits emplaced at Stromboli over the last century to unravel the origin of currents, their flow mechanism and the depositional dynamics. We focus on the 1930 PDC as they are well described in historical accounts and because the 1930 eruption stands as the most voluminous and destructive paroxysm of the last 13 centuries. Stromboli PDC deposits are recognizable from their architecture and the great abundance of fresh, well-preserved juvenile material. General deposit features indicate that Stromboli PDC formed due to the syn-eruptive gravitational collapse of hot pyroclasts rapidly accumulated over steep slopes. Flow channelization within the several small valleys cut on the flanks of the volcano can enhance the mobility of PDC, as well as the production of fine particles by abrasion and comminution of hot juvenile fragments, thereby increasing the degree of fluidization. Textural analyses and historical accounts also indicate that PDC can be fast (15–20 m/s) and relatively hot (360–700 °C). PDC can thus flow right down the slopes of the volcano, representing a major hazard. For this reason, they must be adequately taken into account when compiling risk maps and evaluating volcanic hazard on the Island of Stromboli.
    Description: Published
    Description: 827-840
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Stromboli, Pyroclastic density currents, Paroxysms, Basaltic explosive volcanism,Volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru) (2014)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-26
    Description: We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located 〈20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabi- listic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra load- ing during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley repre- sents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.
    Description: Published
    Description: 771
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: BET_VH ; TITAN2D ; TEPHRA2 ; Probabilistic volcanic hazard ; Multi-hazard assessment ; El Misti Arequipa ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Contrasting radon background levels in volcanic settings: Clues from 220Rn activity concentrations measured during long-term deformation experiments (2014)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: To better understand the mechanisms leading to different radon background levels in volcanic settings, we have performed two long-term deformation experiments of 16 days using a real-time setup that enables us to monitor any variation of radon activity concentration during rock compression. Our measurements demonstrate that, in the case of highly porous volcanic rocks, the emanating power of the substrate changes as a function of the volcanic stress conditions. Constant magmatic pressures, such as those observed during dike intrusions and hydrothermal fluid injections, can result in pervasive pore collapse that is mirrored by a significant radon decrease until a constant emanation is achieved. Conversely, repeated cycles of stress due to, for example, volcano inflation/deflation cycles, cause a progressive radon increase a few days (but even weeks and months) before rupture. After rock failure, however, the formation of new emanation surfaces leads to a substantial increase of the radon signal. Our results suggest that surface deformation in tectonic and volcanic settings, such as inflation/ deflation or constant magmatic pressures, have important repercussions on the emanating power of volcanic substrates.
    Description: Published
    Description: 751
    Description: 2R. Laboratori sperimentali e analitici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Radon monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 6
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    Integration of stochastic models for long-term eruption forecasting into a Bayesian event tree scheme: a basis method to estimate the probability of volcanic unrest (2013)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: Eruption forecasting refers, in general, to the assessment of the occurrence probability of a given erup- tive event, whereas volcanic hazards are normally associated with the analysis of superficial and evident phenomena that usually accompany eruptions (e.g., lava, pyroclastic flows, tephra fall, lahars, etc.). Nevertheless, several hazards of volcanic origin may occur in noneruptive phases dur- ing unrest episodes. Among others, remarkable examples are gas emissions, phreatic explosions, ground deforma- tion, and seismic swarms. Many of such events may lead to significant damages, and for this reason, the “risk” associ- ated to unrest episodes could not be negligible with respect to eruption-related phenomena. Our main objective in this paper is to provide a quantitative framework to calculate probabilities of volcanic unrest. The mathematical frame- work proposed is based on the integration of stochastic mod- els based on the analysis of eruption occurrence catalogs into a Bayesian event tree scheme for eruption forecast- ing and volcanic hazard assessment. Indeed, such models are based on long-term eruption catalogs and in many cases allow a more consistent analysis of long-term tem- poral modulations of volcanic activity. The main result of this approach is twofold: first, it allows to make inferences about the probability of volcanic unrest; second, it allows to project the results of stochastic modeling of the eruptive history of a volcano toward the probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazards. To illustrate the performance of the pro- posed approach, we apply it to determine probabilities of unrest at Miyakejima volcano, Japan.
    Description: Published
    Description: 689
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcanic unrest ; Eruption forecasting ; Bayesian event tree ; Stochastic models ; Miyakejima volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 7
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    Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.
    Description: This study was performed with the financial support from the V3-LAVA project (DPC-INGV 2007–2009 contract).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2083–2094
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Flank eruption ; Dike ; Volcano structure ; Susceptibility map ; Spatial clustering ; Back analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strat- egy requires a scientific assessment of the future evo- lution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic pre- dictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all avail- able information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to pri- oritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time–space–magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1777-1805
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: eruption forecasting ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 9
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    Lava flow hazard and risk at Mt. Cameroon volcano (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Mt. Cameroon is one of the most active effusive volcanoes in Africa. About 500,000 people living or working around its fertile flanks are subject to significant threat from lava flow inundation. Lava flow hazard and risk were assessed by simulating probable lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW code. The vent opening probability density function and lava flow length distribution were determined on the basis of available data from past eruptions at Mt. Cameroon volcano. Code calibration was performed through comparison with real lava flow paths. The topographic basis for simulations was the 90-m resolution SRTM DEM. Simulated lava flows from about 80,000 possible vents were used to produce a detailed lava flow hazard map. The lava flow risk in the area was mapped by combining the hazard map with digitized infrastructures (i.e., human settlements and roads). Results show that the risk of lava flow inundation is greatest in the most inhabited coastal areas comprising the town of Limbe, which constitutes the center of Cameroon’s oil industry and an important commercial port. Buea, the second most important town in the area, has a much lower risk although it is significantly closer to the summit of the volcano. Non-negligible risk characterizes many villages and most roads in the area surrounding the volcano. In addition to the conventional risk mapping described above, we also present (1) two reversed risk maps (one for buildings and one for roads), where each point on the volcano is classified according to the total damage expected as a consequence of vent opening at that point; (2) maps of the lava catchments for the two main towns of Limbe and Buea, illustrating the expected damage upon venting at any point in the catchment basin. The hazard and risk maps provided here represent valuable tools for both medium/long-term land-use planning and real-time volcanic risk management and decision making.
    Description: Published
    Description: 423-439
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Lava flow simulation ; Lava flow hazard ; Lava flow risk ; Mt. Cameroon ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 10
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    Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long- term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.
    Description: Published
    Description: 497-510
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcanic hazards assessment . Campi Flegrei . Vent opening probability map . Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
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    Rapid differentiation in a sill-like magma reservoir: a case study from the campi flegrei caldera (2012)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In recent decades, geophysical investigations have detected wide magma reservoirs beneath quiescent calderas. However, the discovery of partially melted horizons inside the crust is not sufficient to put constraints on capability of reservoirs to supply cataclysmic eruptions, which strictly depends on the chemical-physical properties of magmas (composition, viscosity, gas content etc.), and thus on their differentiation histories. In this study, by using geochemical, isotopic and textural records of rocks erupted from the high-risk Campi Flegrei caldera, we show that the alkaline magmas have evolved toward a critical state of explosive behaviour over a time span shorter than the repose time of most volcanic systems and that these magmas have risen rapidly toward the surface. Moreover, similar results on the depth and timescale of magma storage were previously obtained for the neighbouring Somma-Vesuvius volcano. This consistency suggests that there might be a unique long-lived magma pool beneath the whole Neapolitan area.
    Description: Published
    Description: article 712
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: magma ; campi flegrei caldera ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.05. Mineralogy and petrology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
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  • 12
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    A Brownian Model for Recurrent Volcanic Eruptions: an Application to Miyakejima Volcano (Japan) (2012)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: The definition of probabilistic models as mathematical structures to describe the response of a volcanic system is a plausible approach to characterize the temporal behavior of volcanic eruptions, and constitutes a tool for long-term eruption forecasting. This kind of approach is motivated by the fact that volcanoes are complex systems in which a com- pletely deterministic description of the processes preceding eruptions is practically impos- sible. To describe recurrent eruptive activity we apply a physically-motivated probabilistic model based on the characteristics of the Brownian passage-time (BPT) distribution; the physical process defining this model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from a ground state to a failure threshold; adding Brownian perturbations to the steady load- ing produces a stochastic load-state process (a Brownian relaxation oscillator) in which an eruption relaxes the load state to begin a new eruptive cycle. The Brownian relaxation os- cillator and Brownian passage-time distribution connect together physical notions of unob- servable loading and failure processes of a point process with observable response statistics. The Brownian passage-time model is parameterized by the mean rate of event occurrence, μ , and the aperiodicity about the mean, α . We apply this model to analyze the eruptive his- tory of Miyakejima volcano, Japan, finding a value of 44.2(±6.5 years) for the μ parameter and 0.51(±0.01) for the (dimensionless) α parameter. The comparison with other models often used in volcanological literature shows that this pysically-motivated model may be a good descriptor of volcanic systems that produce eruptions with a characteristic size. BPT is clearly superior to the exponential distribution and the fit to the data is comparable to other two-parameters models. Nonetheless, being a physically-motivated model, it provides an insight into the macro-mechanical processes driving the system.
    Description: INGV - Sezione di Bologna; Universita' di Bologna - Marco Polo program
    Description: Published
    Description: 545-558
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Probabilistic models; Brownian passage-time distribution; ; Hazard function; Miyakejima volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
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  • 13
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    Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand (2011)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1km x 1km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current Contingency Plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.
    Description: Published
    Description: 705-723
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Auckland Volcanic Field ; Base surge ; Bayesian event tree ; Volcanic hazard ; Cost benefit analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 14
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    Volcanic hazards of the Colli Albani (2011)
    Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Although controversy exists about the age of its most recent eruption (either 36 ka or ,23 ka), Colli Albani volcano is unanimously considered to be quiescent and not exinct. During the Holocene, several lahars were generated by overflows from Albano crater lake up to the fourth century BCE, when the Romans excavated a drainage tunnel to keep the lake level below the crater rim. Such recent activity, together with the frequent occurrence of seismic swarms underneath the crater zone, the ongoing uplift of the volcanic edifice and the magmatic affinity of the emitted gas, indicate the presence of an active magma chamber. The most likely site for a new eruption is the deep crater hosted in the southern part of the Lake Albano, where the last eruptive events occurred. Any eruption would have a strong explosive character enhanced by the interaction of magma with the water of the lake and would endanger a densely inhabited area up to the outskirts of Rome. The hazard of a new overflow from Lake Albano is very low because of the present low level of the lae. There is instead a potential for CO2 release from the deep lake water following the occurrence of rollovers, which would threaten the lake shore, a site where thousands of people spend their vacations in the summer. However, the content of dissolved CO2 is presently far from saturation and no Nyos-type events will occur today. Presently, the main hazard is related to strong gas emissions (CO2, H2S and Rn) from fractured zones and gas blowouts from wells reaching shallow gas-pressurized aquifers.
    Description: Published
    Description: 279 – 297
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Colli Albani, volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 15
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    Modeling of CO2 circulation in the Colli Albani area (2010)
    IACEI | Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: The Colli Albani is a quiescent volcano located nearby the city of Roma, characterised by the presence of an active geothermal system, periodic seismic swarms and intense diffuse degassing. Several accidents, some of which lethal, have occurred in recent years associated to episodes of more intense releases and outbursts of volcanic gases, dominantly CO2 and H2S. Gas emissions are presently the most hazardous phenomenon for the highly populated Colli Albani area, along with the potential occurrence of seismic activity. This chapter presents the numerical modeling of heat and fluid circulation applied to study the mechanisms which control the diffuse degassing at Colli Albani volcano. Multi-phase and multi-component simulations were carried out using the TOUGH2 geothermal simulator in a realistic geological context, which includes all available information on the stratigraphy and structure of the Colli Albani substrate, along with data on the total gas flux, the local geothermal gradient, the local hydrogeology, and the thermal characteristics of the rocks. The geothermal reservoir at Colli Albani is hosted by the 2-3000 m thick Mesozoic-Cenozoic carbonatic succession capped by Pliocene clays which act as aquiclude and are few hundreds to over 1000m thick, in turned covered by continental sedimentary and volcanic deposits, which host the shallow hydrogeological system. Numerical simulations evaluate the effects associated with the thickness of the carbonatic basement and its cap rock; the role of CO2 supply rate at depth; and the influence of permeable channelways through the cap rocks. Numerical simulations show that thickness of the geothermal reservoir hosted by the carbonatic basement and of its impervious cover control the vigor of the convection, the extent and depth (and hence temperature) of the lateral recharge area, and the distribution of the carbon dioxide within the system. This result suggests that the temperature distribution and diffuse degassing at surface do not simply reflect the characteristics of the heat and fluid source at depth, but also the specific structure and hydrological properties of the site where they are measured.
    Description: Submitted
    Description: 311-329
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: open
    Keywords: Colli Albani ; degassing ; modeling ; rock properties ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 16
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    The lake Albano: bathymetry and level changes (2010)
    Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The Lake Albano is situated in the Colli Albani volcanic district, about 20 km SE from the city centre of Rome. It is 287 m above sea level and is the deepest among the volcanic crater lakes of Italy, being presently 167 m deep. It is 3.5 km long and 2.3 km wide with an area of about 6 km2. The crater has a long history, which starts with the formation of the Albano crater ~70 ka B.P., and shows evidence of human settlements since pre-historical times. Geological evidence indicates that a catastrophic overflow of the lake occurred in 396 B.C.E. due to a rapid increase of the water level. This phenomenon persuaded the Romans to excavate an artificial outlet though the crater wall to control the lake level. The lake is thought to be hazardous for the surroundings human settlements and the city of Rome, high resolution multibeam bathymetry of the of Lake Albano was performed for the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, in order to evaluate the potential for CO2 storage and eruption from the lake. The shape of the crater floor was mapped in 2-D and 3-D. Here, we show the main submerged morphological features and a brief history of the lake level changes, which still affect this basin today.
    Description: Published
    Description: 229-244
    Description: 3A. Geofisica marina e osservazioni multiparametriche a fondo mare
    Description: open
    Keywords: Colli Albani, Albano Lake, MB Bathymetry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 17
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    Subaqueous density flow processes and deposits of an island volcano landslide (Stromboli Island, Italy) (2010)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Stromboli is a 3000 m high island volcano, rising to 900 m above sea-level. It is the most active volcano of the Aeolian Archipelago in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy). Major, large volume (1 km3) sector collapses, four occurring in the last 13 kyr, have played an important role in shaping the north-western flank (Sciara del Fuoco) of the volcano, potentially generating a high-risk tsunami hazard for the Aeolian Islands and the Italian coast. However, smaller volume, partial collapses of the Sciara del Fuoco have been shown to be more frequent tsunami-generating events. One such event occurred on 30 December 2002, when a partial collapse of the north-western flank of the island took place. The resulting landslide generated 10 m high tsunami waves that impacted the island. Multibeam bathymetry, side-scan sonar imaging and visual observations reveal that the landslide deposited 25 to 30 × 106 m3 of sediment on the submerged slope offshore from the Sciara del Fuoco. Two contiguous main deposit facies are recognized: (i) a chaotic, coarse-grained (metre-sized to centimetre-sized clasts) deposit; and (ii) a sand deposit containing a lower, cross-bedded sand layer and an upper structureless pebbly sand bed capped by sea floor ripple bedforms. The sand facies develops adjacent to and partially overlying the coarse deposits. Characteristics of the deposits suggest that they were derived from cohesionless, sandy matrix density flows. Flow rheology and dynamics led to the segregation of the density flow into sand-rich and clast-rich regions. A range of density flow transitions, both in space and in time, caused principally by particle concentration and grain-size partitioning within cohesionless parent flows was identified in the deposits of this relatively small-scale submarine landslide event.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1488-1504
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Flow transitions ; island volcano ; subaqueous cohesionless density flows ; submarine landslide deposits ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 18
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    Structural features of the July–August 2001 Mount Etna eruption: evidence for a complex magma supply system (2008)
    Geological Society of London
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-26
    Description: We describe the evolution of the volcanic activity and deformation patterns observed at Mount Etna during the July–August 2001 eruption. Seismicity started at 3000 m below sea level on 13 July, accompanied by moderate ground swelling. Ground deformation culminated on 16 July with the development of a NE–SW graben c. 500 m wide and c. 1 m deep in the Cisternazza area at 2600–2500 m above sea level on the southern slope of the volcano. On 17 July, the eruption started at the summit of Mount Etna from the SE Crater (central–lateral eruptive system), from which two radial, c. 30 m wide, c. 3000 m long fracture zones, associated with eruptive fissures, propagated both southward (17 July) and northeastward (20 July). On 18 July, a new vent formed at 2100 m elevation, at the southern base of the Montagnola, followed on the next day by the opening of a vent further upslope, at 2550 m (eccentric eruptive system). The eruption lasted for 3 weeks. Approximately 80% of the total lava volume was erupted from the 2100 m and the 2550 m vents. The collected structural data suggest that the Cisternazza graben developed as a passive local response of the volcanic edifice to the ascent of a north–south eccentric dyke, which eventually reached the ground surface in the Montagnola area (18–19 July). In contrast, the two narrow fracture zones radiating from the summit are interpreted as the lateral propagation, from the conduit of the SE Crater, of north–south- and NE–SW-oriented shallow dykes, 2–3 m wide. The evolution of the fracture pattern together with other volcanological data (magma ascent and effusion rate, eruptive style, petrochemical characteristics of the erupted products, and petrology of xenoliths within magma) suggest that the eccentric and central–lateral eruptions were fed by two distinct magmatic systems. Examples of eccentric activity accompanied by central–lateral events have never been described before at Etna.
    Description: Published
    Description: 531-544
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mount Etna ; July–August 2001 Eruption ; magmas ; dykes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 19
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    Arrest and aperture variation of hydrofractures in layered reservoirs (2004)
    Geological Society of London
    In:  Professional Paper, The Initiation, Propagation, and Arrest of Joints and Other Fractures, London, Geological Society of London, vol. 231, no. 16, pp. 117-128, (ISBN 1-86239-165-3, vi + 330 pp.)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2004
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Structural geology ; cracks and fractures (.NE. fracturing) ; Fracture ; Hydraulic fracturing ; Gudmundsson
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    BIBLIOGRAPHY SEISMOLOGY
  • 20
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    Stress-controlled localization of deformation and fluid flow in fractured rocks (2004)
    Geological Society of London
    In:  Bull., Open-File Rept., The Initiation, Propagation, and Arrest of Joints and Other Fractures, London, Geological Society of London, vol. 231, no. 16, pp. 299-314, (ISBN 1-86239-165-3, vi + 330 pp.)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2004
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Structural geology ; cracks and fractures (.NE. fracturing) ; Fracture ; Friction ; Source
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    BIBLIOGRAPHY SEISMOLOGY
  • 21
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    Laser Holography in Geophysics (1989)
    Wiley
    In:  New York, Wiley, vol. 98, no. ALEX(01)-FR-77-01, AFTAC Contract F08606-76-C-0025, pp. 95-104, (ISBN: 1-4020-1592-5)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1989
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Laboratory measurements
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    BIBLIOGRAPHY SEISMOLOGY
  • 22
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    Friction and Wear of Materials (1965)
    Wiley
    In:  New York, Wiley, vol. 7, no. Publ. No. 12, pp. 127, (ISBN 3-540-44363-0)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1965
    Keywords: Friction ; Physical properties of rocks ; Rock mechanics ; Textbook of geophysics
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    BIBLIOGRAPHY SEISMOLOGY
  • 23
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    The Initiation, Propagation, and Arrest of Joints and Other Fractures
    Geological Society of London
    In:  New York, Geological Society of London, vol. 231, no. 3, pp. 2-203, (ISBN 1-86239-165-3, vi + 330 pp.)
    Details
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Structural geology ; cracks and fractures (.NE. fracturing) ; Fracture ; Friction
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    BIBLIOGRAPHY SEISMOLOGY
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