ALBERT

Description: Accelerated permafrost thaw under the warming Arctic climate can have a significant impact on Arctic landscapes. Areas underlain by permafrost store high amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). Permafrost disturbances may contribute to increased release of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere. Coastal erosion, amplified through a decrease in Arctic sea-ice extent, may also mobilise SOC from permafrost. Large expanses of permafrost affected land are characterised by intense mass-wasting processes such as solifluction, active-layer detachments and retrogressive thaw slumping. Our aim is to assess the influence of mass wasting on SOC storage and coastal erosion. We studied SOC storage on Herschel Island by analysing active-layer and permafrost samples, and compared non-disturbed sites to those characterised by mass wasting. Mass-wasting sites showed decreased SOC storage and material compaction, whereas sites characterised by material accumulation showed increased storage. The SOC storage on Herschel Island is also significantly correlated to catenary position and other slope characteristics. We estimated SOC storage on Herschel Island to be 34.8 kg C m-2. This is comparable to similar environments in northwest Canada and Alaska. Coastal erosion was analysed using high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs). Two LIDAR scanning of the Yukon Coast were done in 2012 and 2013. Two DEMs with 1 m horizontal resolution were generated and used to analyse elevation changes along the coast. The results indicate considerable spatial variability in short-term coastline erosion and progradation. The high variability was related to the presence of mass-wasting processes. Erosion and deposition extremes were recorded where the retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity was most pronounced. Released sediment can be transported by longshore drift and affects not only the coastal processes in situ but also along adjacent coasts. We also calculated volumetric coastal erosion for Herschel Island by comparing a stereo-photogrammetrically derived DEM from 2004 with LIDAR DEMs. We compared this volumetric erosion to planimetric erosion, which was based on coastlines digitised from satellite imagery. We found a complex relationship between planimetric and volumetric coastal erosion, which we attribute to frequent occurrence of mass-wasting processes along the coasts. Our results suggest that volumetric erosion corresponds better with environmental forcing and is more suitable for the estimation of organic carbon fluxes than planimetric erosion. Mass wasting can decrease SOC storage by several mechanisms. Increased aeration following disturbance may increase microbial activity, which accelerates organic matter decomposition. New hydrological conditions that follow the mass wasting event can cause leaching of freshly exposed material. Organic rich material can also be directly removed into the sea or into a lake. On the other hand the accumulation of mobilised material can result in increased SOC storage. Mass-wasting related accumulations of mobilised material can significantly impact coastal erosion in situ or along the adjacent coast by longshore drift. Therefore, the coastline movement observations cannot completely resolve the actual sediment loss due to these temporary accumulations. The predicted increase of mass-wasting activity in the course of Arctic warming may increase SOC mobilisation and coastal erosion induced carbon fluxes.

Description: Earth's climate varies continuously across space and time, but humankind has witnessed only a small snapshot of its entire history, and instrumentally documented it for a mere 200 years. Our knowledge of past climate changes is therefore almost exclusively based on indirect proxy data, i.e. on indicators which are sensitive to changes in climatic variables and stored in environmental archives. Extracting the data from these archives allows retrieval of the information from earlier times. Obtaining accurate proxy information is a key means to test model predictions of the past climate, and only after such validation can the models be used to reliably forecast future changes in our warming world. The polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are one major climate archive, which record information about local air temperatures by means of the isotopic composition of the water molecules embedded in the ice. However, this temperature proxy is, as any indirect climate data, not a perfect recorder of past climatic variations. Apart from local air temperatures, a multitude of other processes affect the mean and variability of the isotopic data, which hinders their direct interpretation in terms of climate variations. This applies especially to regions with little annual accumulation of snow, such as the Antarctic Plateau. While these areas in principle allow for the extraction of isotope records reaching far back in time, a strong corruption of the temperature signal originally encoded in the isotopic data of the snow is expected. This dissertation uses observational isotope data from Antarctica, focussing especially on the East Antarctic low-accumulation area around the Kohnen Station ice-core drilling site, together with statistical and physical methods, to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal isotope variability across different scales, and thus to enhance the applicability of the proxy for estimating past temperature variability. The presented results lead to a quantitative explanation of the local-scale (1–500 m) spatial variability in the form of a statistical noise model, and reveal the main source of the temporal variability to be the mixture of a climatic seasonal cycle in temperature and the effect of diffusional smoothing acting on temporally uncorrelated noise. These findings put significant limits on the representativity of single isotope records in terms of local air temperature, and impact the interpretation of apparent cyclicalities in the records. Furthermore, to extend the analyses to larger scales, the timescale-dependency of observed Holocene isotope variability is studied. This offers a deeper understanding of the nature of the variations, and is crucial for unravelling the embedded true temperature variability over a wide range of timescales.

Description: Stratospheric variability is one of the main potential sources for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes in winter. Stratospheric pathways play an important role for long-range teleconnections between tropical phenomena, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the mid-latitudes on the one hand, and linkages between Arctic climate change and the mid-latitudes on the other hand. In order to move forward in the field of extratropical seasonal predictions, it is essential that an atmospheric model is able to realistically simulate the stratospheric circulation and variability. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) configuration of the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model ICON is currently being used by the German Meteorological Service for the regular weather forecast, and is intended to produce seasonal predictions in future. This thesis represents the first extensive evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation in ICON-NWP by analysing a large set of seasonal ensemble experiments. An ICON control climatology simulated with a default setup is able to reproduce the basic behaviour of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, stratospheric westerlies are significantly too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent, especially in January. The weak stratospheric polar vortex in ICON is furthermore connected to a mean sea level pressure (MSLP) bias pattern resembling the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Since a good representation of the drag exerted by gravity waves is crucial for a realistic simulation of the stratosphere, three sensitivity experiments with reduced gravity wave drag are performed. Both a reduction of the non-orographic and orographic gravity wave drag respectively, lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and thus a bias reduction in winter, in particular in January. However, the effect of the non-orographic gravity wave drag on the stratosphere is stronger. A third experiment, combining a reduced orographic and non-orographic drag, exhibits the largest stratospheric bias reductions. The analysis of stratosphere-troposphere coupling based on an index of the Northern Annular Mode demonstrates that ICON realistically represents downward coupling. This coupling is intensified and more realistic in experiments with a reduced gravity wave drag, in particular with reduced non-orographic drag. Tropospheric circulation is also affected by the reduced gravity wave drag, especially in January, when the strongly improved stratospheric circulation reduces biases in the MSLP patterns. Moreover, a retuning of the subgrid-scale orography parameterisations leads to a significant error reduction in the MSLP in all months. In conclusion, the combination of these adjusted parameterisations is recommended as a current optimal setup for seasonal simulations with ICON. Additionally, this thesis discusses further possible influences on the stratospheric polar vortex, including the influence of tropical phenomena, such as QBO and ENSO, as well as the influence of a rapidly warming Arctic. ICON does not simulate the quasi-oscillatory behaviour of the QBO and favours weak easterlies in the tropical stratosphere. A comparison with a reanalysis composite of the easterly QBO phase reveals, that the shift towards the easterly QBO in ICON further weakens the stratospheric polar vortex. On the other hand, the stratospheric reaction to ENSO events in ICON is realistic. ICON and the reanalysis exhibit a weakened stratospheric vortex in warm ENSO years. Furthermore, in particular in winter, warm ENSO events favour the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, whereas cold events favour the positive phase. The ICON simulations also suggest a significant effect of ENSO on the Atlantic-European sector in late winter. To investigate the influence of Arctic climate change on mid-latitude circulation changes, two differing approaches with transient and fixed sea ice conditions are chosen. Neither ICON approach exhibits the mid-latitude tropospheric negative Arctic Oscillation circulation response to amplified Arctic warming, as it is discussed on the basis of observational evidence. Nevertheless, adding a new model to the current and active discussion on Arctic-midlatitude linkages, further contributes to the understanding of divergent conclusions between model and observational studies.

Description: The northern Central Siberian Arctic provides many suitable archives for climate reconstructions and presents a highly sensitive eco-region with scarce human disturbance. The objective of this study was to identify and interpret changes in the vegetation cover during the last 1100 year, by means of a short core, which was cored in 2007 from a lake in the catchment of the Popigai river, Northern Siberia. In order to achieve reliable results, a multi-proxy approach was used to identify alterations in the lake system and its vicinity. In this study a pollen record was generated and analyzed with statistical means. Further measurements include sedimentary parameters, namely grain size, biogeochemistry (TN, TC, TOC) and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N). The results of the statistical analyses were used to divide the pollen record into five zones. Each pollen assemblage zone (PAZ) is showing a rather specific pollen composition and is indicating changes in the vegetation cover in the lake’s vicinity. The relationships among samples and species were investigated using a principal component analysis, revealing a clear treeline signal. The lower part of the core is reflecting the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), reaching from about 900 AD to 1300 AD. The pollen composition comprises of a rather mixed signal, including tree taxa as well as shrub and herb taxa, yet not displaying a pronounced trend. However, internal sedimentological lake signals, e.g. TOC, TN and δ13C show a clear decrease during this time. From approx. 1300 AD to 1550 AD a rather unspecific pollen assemblage was reconstructed. Starting around 1550 AD and lasting until the early 18th century, the vegetation signal showed a clear decrease in tree pollen accompanied by a strong increase in shrub pollen, thereby indicating to the Little Ice Age (LIA). This coincides with the results of the TOC and the TN measurements, which display here their lowest values within this study. Another transition zone, which lasts until the 1970s, separates the LIA from the Global Warming period. This recent warming trend is clearly reflected in the pollen composition of the upper samples, where a pronounced increase of tree pollen as well as a decrease in herb pollen becomes apparent. Biogeochemical results match this trend by displaying the highest values throughout the core in the upper samples. The stable isotope ratios are showing more variability, although the δ15N ratios are presenting a slightly positive trend. Since proxies, especially sedimentary ones, can be reflecting different parameters, the multi-proxy approach proved very useful. The combination of biogeochemistry and stable isotope ratios is used to indicate the source of organic matter in the sediment, identifying a clearly lacustrine dominated signal in this study. Furthermore, it is possible to draw conclusions concerning the bioproductivity in the lake system from the determined parameters. The findings presented here are indicating that the major climate phases in the last 1100 years are also reflected in the vegetation and sediment signals in the investigated lake. The end of the Medieval Warm Period as well as the Little Ice Age and modern day Global Warming are well distinguishable in the pollen record. This study queues well into the ongoing research to understand the reaction and feedbacks of the high latitudes in relation to global climate change and can thereby contribute to a higher resolution as well as a better understanding of the Siberian Arctic.

Description: Spatial and temporal temperature and moisture patterns across the Tibetan Plateau are very complex. The onset and magnitude of the Holocene climate optimum in the Asian monsoon realm, in particular, is a subject of considerable debate as this time period is often used as an analogue for recent global warming. In the light of contradictory inferences regarding past climate and environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau, I have attempted to explain mismatches in the timing and magnitude of change. Therefore, I analysed the temporal variation of fossil pollen and diatom spectra and the geochemical record from palaeo-ecological records covering different time scales (late Quaternary and the last 200 years) from two core regions in the NE and SE Tibetan Plateau. For interpretation purposes I combined my data with other available palaeo-ecological data to set up corresponding aquatic and terrestrial proxy data sets of two lake pairs and two sets of sites. I focused on the direct comparison of proxies representing lacustrine response to climate signals (e.g., diatoms, ostracods, geochemical record) and proxies representing changes in the terrestrial environment (i.e., terrestrial pollen), in order to asses whether the lake and its catchments respond at similar times and magnitudes to environmental changes. Therefore, I introduced the established numerical technique procrustes rotation as a new approach in palaeoecology to quantitatively compare raw data of any two sedimentary records of interest in order to assess their degree of concordance. Focusing on the late Quaternary, sediment cores from two lakes (Kuhai Lake 35.3°N; 99.2°E; 4150 m asl; and Koucha Lake 34.0°N; 97.2°E; 4540 m asl) on the semi-arid northeastern Tibetan Plateau were analysed to identify post-glacial vegetation and environmental changes, and to investigate the responses of lake ecosystems to such changes. Based on the pollen record, five major vegetation and climate changes could be identified: (1) A shift from alpine desert to alpine steppe indicates a change from cold, dry conditions to warmer and more moist conditions at 14.8 cal. ka BP, (2) alpine steppe with tundra elements points to conditions of higher effective moisture and a stepwise warming climate at 13.6 cal. ka BP, (3) the appearance of high-alpine meadow vegetation indicates a further change towards increased moisture, but with colder temperatures, at 7.0 cal. ka BP, (4) the reoccurrence of alpine steppe with desert elements suggests a return to a significantly colder and drier phase at 6.3 cal. ka BP, and (5) the establishment of alpine steppe-meadow vegetation indicates a change back to relatively moist conditions at 2.2 cal. ka BP. To place the reconstructed climate inferences from the NE Tibetan Plateau into the context of Holocene moisture evolution across the Tibetan Plateau, I applied a five-scale moisture index and average link clustering to all available continuous pollen and non-pollen palaeoclimate records from the Tibetan Plateau, in an attempt to detect coherent regional and temporal patterns of moisture evolution on the Plateau. However, no common temporal or spatial pattern of moisture evolution during the Holocene could be detected, which can be assigned to the complex responses of different proxies to environmental changes in an already very heterogeneous mountain landscape, where minor differences in elevation can result in marked variations in microenvironments. Focusing on the past 200 years, I analysed the sedimentary records (LC6 Lake 29.5°N, 94.3°E, 4132 m asl; and Wuxu Lake 29.9°N, 101.1°E, 3705 m asl) from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. I found that despite presumed significant temperature increases over that period, pollen and diatom records from the SE Tibetan Plateau reveal only very subtle changes throughout their profiles. The compositional species turnover investigated over the last 200 years appears relatively low in comparison to the species reorganisations during the Holocene. The results indicate that climatically induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem. Forest clearances and reforestation have not caused forest decline in our study area, but a conversion of natural forests to semi-natural secondary forests. The results from the numerical proxy comparison of the two sets of two pairs of Tibetan lakes indicate that the use of different proxies and the work with palaeo-ecological records from different lake types can cause deviant stories of inferred change. Irrespective of the timescale (Holocene or last 200 years) or region (SE or NE Tibetan Plateau) analysed, the agreement in terms of the direction, timing, and magnitude of change between the corresponding terrestrial data sets is generally better than the match between the corresponding lacustrine data sets, suggesting that lacustrine proxies may partly be influenced by in-lake or local catchment processes whereas the terrestrial proxy reflects a more regional climatic signal. The current disaccord on coherent temporal and spatial climate patterns on the Tibetan Plateau can partly be ascribed to the complexity of proxy response and lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, a multi-proxy, multi-site approach is important in order to gain a reliable climate interpretation for the complex mountain landscape of the Tibetan Plateau.