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  • 04.06. Seismology  (56)
  • 04.04. Geology  (26)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (24)
  • Creep observations and analysis
  • Seismological Society of America  (35)
  • MDPI  (34)
  • Wiley-AGU  (10)
  • Elsevier B.V.  (8)
  • Wiley  (6)
  • EGU - Copernicus
Collection
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-01-22
    Description: Spectral analysis has been applied to almost thou-sand seismic events recorded at Vesuvius volcano (Naples,southern Italy) in 2018 with the aim to test a new tool fora fast event classification. We computed two spectral pa-rameters, central frequency and shape factor, from the spec-tral moments of order 0, 1, and 2, for each event at sevenseismic stations taking the mean among the three compo-nents of ground motion. The analyzed events consist ofvolcano-tectonic earthquakes, low frequency events and un-classified events (landslides, rockfall, thunders, quarry blasts,etc.). Most of them are of low magnitude, and/or low maxi-mum signal amplitude, therefore the signal to noise ratio isvery different between the low noise summit stations andthe higher noise stations installed at low elevation aroundthe volcano. The results of our analysis show that volcano-tectonic earthquakes and low frequency events are easily dis-tinguishable through the spectral moments values, particu-larly at seismic stations closer to the epicenter. On the con-trary, unclassified events show the spectral parameters valuesdistributed in a broad range which overlap both the volcano-tectonic earthquakes and the low frequency events. Since thecomputation of spectral parameters is extremely easy and fastfor a detected event, it may become an effective tool for eventclassification in observatory practice.
    Description: Published
    Description: 67–74
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; Spectral Analisys ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Elsevier B.V.
    Publication Date: 2021-02-01
    Description: In supervised classification, we search criteria allowing us to decide whether a sample belongs to a certain class of patterns. The identification of such decision functions is based on examples where we know a priori to which class they belong. The distinction of seismic signals, produced from earthquakes and nuclear explosions, is a classical problem of discrimination using classification with supervision. We move on from observed data—signals originating from known earthquakes and nuclear tests—and search for criteria on how to assign a class to a signal of unknown origin. We begin with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Fisher's Linear Discriminant Analysis (FLDA), identifying a linear element separating groups at best. PCA, FLDA, and likelihood-based approaches make use of statistical properties of the groups. Considering only the number of misclassified samples as a cost, we may prefer alternatives, such as the Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs). The Support Vector Machines (SVMs) use a modified cost function, combining the criterion of the minimum number of misclassified samples with a request of separating the hulls of the groups with a margin as wide as possible. Both SVMs and MLPs overcome the limits of linear discrimination. A famous example for the advantages of the two techniques is the eXclusive OR (XOR) problem, where we wish to form classes of objects having the same parity—even, e.g., (0,0), (1,1) or odd, e.g., (0,1), (1,0). MLPs and SVMs offer effective methods for the identification of nonlinear decision functions, allowing us to resolve classification problems of any complexity provided the data set used during earning is sufficiently large. In Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), we consider observations where their meaning depends on their context. Observations form a causal chain generated by a hidden process. In Bayesian Networks (BNs) we represent conditional (in)dependencies between a set of random variables by a graphical model. In both HMMs and BNs, we aim at identifying models and parameters that explain observations with a highest possible degree of probability.
    Description: Published
    Description: 33-85
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: pattern recognition ; supervised learning ; Support Vector Machines ; Multilayer Perceptrons ; Hidden Markov Models ; Bayesian Networks ; 04.04. Geology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-02-01
    Description: Patterns and objects are described by a variety of characteristics, namely features and feature vectors. Features can be numerical, ordinal, and categorical. Patterns can be made up of a number of objects, such as in speech processing. In geophysics, numerical features are the most common ones and we focus on those. The choice of appropriate features requires a priori reasoning about the physical relation between patterns and features. We present strategies for feature identification and procedures suitable for pattern recognition. In time series analysis and image processing, the direct use of raw data is not feasible. Procedures of feature extraction, based on locally encountered characteristics of the data, are applied. Here we present the problem of delineating segments of interest in time series and textures in image processing. In transformations, we “translate” our raw data to a form suitable for learning. In Principal Component Analysis, we rotate the original features to a system of uncorrelated variables, limiting redundancy. Independent Component Analysis follows a similar strategy, transforming our data into variables independent of each other. Fourier transform and wavelet transform are based on the representation of the original data as a series of basis functions—sines and cosines or finite-length wavelets. Redundancy reduction is achieved considering the contributions of the single basis functions. Even though a large number of features help to solve a classification problem, feature vectors with high dimensions pose severe problems. Besides the computational burden, we encounter problems known under the term “curse of dimensionality.” The curse of dimensionality entails the necessity of feature selection and reduction, which includes a priori considerations as well as redundancy reduction. The significance of features may be evaluated with tests, such as Student’s t or Hotelling's T2, and, in more complex problems, with cross-validation methods.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-13
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: pattern recognition ; objects ; features ; 04.04. Geology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: On October 27, 2017, an Mw 4 earthquake occurred close to the municipality of Montesano sulla Marcellana, less than 10 km external to the concession of the largest European onshore hydrocarbon reservoir—the Val d’Agri oilfield (Southern Italy). Being a weak event located outside the extended monitoring domain of the industrial concession, the relevance of this earthquake and the possible links with the hydrocarbon exploitation were not extensively discussed. Actually, the analysis of shallow seismic events close to subsurface exploitation domains plays a significant role in the definition of key parameters in order to discriminate between natural, triggered, and induced seismicity, especially in tectonically active regions. The study of weak-to-moderate earthquakes can improve the characterization of the potentially destructive seismic hazard of this particular area, already struck by M 〉 6.5 episodes in the past. In this work, we analyze the source parameters of this Mw 4 earthquake by applying advanced seismological techniques to estimate the uncertainties derived from the moment tensor inversion and identify plausible directivity effects. The moment tensor is dominated by a NW–SE oriented normal faulting with a centroid depth of 14 km. A single ML 2.1 aftershock was recorded and used as the empirical Green’s function to calculate the apparent source time function for the mainshock. Apparent durations (in the range 0.11–0.21 s, obtained from S-waves) define an azimuthal pattern, which reveals an asymmetric bilateral rupture with 70% of the rupture propagation in the N310°Wdirection, suggesting a rupture plane dipping to the SW. Our results tally with the activation of a deeper fault segment associated with the Eastern Agri Fault System close to the basement as the origin of the Montesano earthquake. Finally, the Coulomb stress rate induced by depletion of the oilfield is calculated to quantify the trigger potential estimated for the Montesano earthquake yielding relatively low probabilities below 10%. Our analyses point toward the conclusion that the Mw 4 event was more likely due to the local natural tectonic stress, rather than induced or triggered by the long-term hydrocarbon extraction in the Val d’Agri oilfield.
    Description: Published
    Description: 617794
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: earthquake source ; induced seismicity ; directivity ; triggered earthquake ; Val d’Agri oilfield ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: In order to monitor temporal and spatial crustal activities associated with earthquakes, ground- and satellite-based monitoring systems have been installed in China since the 1990s. In recent years, the correlation between monitoring strain anomalies and local major earthquakes has been verified. In this study, we further evaluate the possibility of strain anomalies containing earthquake precursors by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) prediction. First, strain network anomalies were extracted in the borehole strain data recorded in Western China during 2010–2017. Then, we proposed a new prediction strategy characterized by the number of network anomalies in an anomaly window, Nano, and the length of alarm window, Talm. We assumed that clusters of network anomalies indicate a probability increase of an impending earthquake, and consequently, the alarm window would be the duration during which a possible earthquake would occur. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) between true predicted rate, tpr, and false alarm rate, fpr, is measured to evaluate the efficiency of the prediction strategies. We found that the optimal strategy of short-term forecasts was established by setting the number of anomalies greater than 7 within 14 days and the alarm window at one day. The results further show the prediction strategy performs significantly better when there are frequent enhanced network anomalies prior to the larger earthquakes surrounding the strain network region. The ROC detection indicates that strain data possibly contain the precursory information associated with major earthquakes and highlights the potential for short-term earthquake forecasting.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41974084 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan, under its observation and Research Program for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 515
    Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori sismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: receiver operating characteristic ; a new prediction strategy ; frequent network anomalies ; prediction efficiency ; short-term earthquake forecasting ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: The seismological community is currently developing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems that aim to estimate, based on continuous ground motion recording by seismic networks, the rates of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in an area of interest and in a short-period of time (days to weeks); i.e., the seismicity. OEF may be possibly used for short-term seismic risk management in regions affected by seismic swarms only if its results may be the input to compute, in a probabilistically sound manner, consequence-based risk metrics. The present paper reports the investigation about feasibility of short-term risk assessment, or operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), in Italy. The approach is that of performance-based earthquake engineering, where the loss rates are computed by means of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The risk is expressed in terms of individual and regional measures, which are based on short-term macroseismic intensity, or ground motion intensity, hazard. The vulnerability of the built environment relies on damage probability matrices empirically calibrated for Italian structural classes, and exposure data in terms of buildings per vulnerability class and occupants per building typology. All vulnerability and exposure data are at the municipality scale. The procedure set-up, which is virtually independent on the seismological model used, is implemented in an experimental OELF system, which continuously process OEF information to produce weekly nationwide risk maps. This is illustrated by a retrospective application to the 2012 Pollino (southern Italy) seismic sequence, which provides insights on the capabilities of the system and on the impact, on short-term risk assessment, of the methodology currently used for OEF in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2286-2298
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: operational earthquake forecasting ; seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-10-26
    Description: This paper presents a detailed geological map at the 1:20,000 scale of the Tocomar basin in the Central Puna (north-western Argentina), which extends over an area of about 80 km2 and displays the spatial distribution of the Quaternary deposits and the structures that cover the Ordovician basement and the Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic units. The new dataset includes litho-facies descriptions, stratigraphic and structural data and new 234U/230Th ages for travertine rocks. The new reconstructed stratigraphic framework, along with the structural analysis, has revealed the complex evolution of a small extensional basin including a period of prolonged volcanic activity with different eruptive centres and styles. The geological map improves the knowledge of the geology of the Tocomar basin and the local interplay between orogen-parallel thrusts and orogen-oblique fault systems. This contribution represents a fundamental support for in depth research and also for encouraging geothermal exploration and exploitation in the Puna Plateau region.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 5492
    Description: 1TR. Georisorse
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: geothermal exploration ; U/Th dating ; Southern Central Andes ; central Puna ; 04. Solid Earth ; 04.04. Geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-02-02
    Description: Abstract: In this paper we review and discuss the seismic method based on the analysis of seismic coda waves used in the last 10 years by the present authors and/or their co-workers, to produce separate images of intrinsic- and scattering attenuation in zones of peculiar geological interest (mainly volcanoes). Such separate attenuation images are considered by the scientific community as complementary to those from ordinary velocity-tomography and useful to improve the geological interpretation in volcanoes and in tectonically active zones. In this review we only list but do not discuss the most significative papers showing the images obtained, as we are focused to review the method and not the interpretation of data analysis. For sake of completeness, we anyway show also a new analysis applied to data from Stromboli volcano. We thus first introduce the physical model describing the seismogram Energy Envelope (derived from the solution of the Energy Transport integral Equation) and discuss its asymptotic approximations (Diffusion- and Single-scattering model). Then, we describe a numerical method to heuristically calculate the Sensitivity Kernels for the propagation of the scattered waves in the assumption of isotropic scattering. We attribute to these Sensitivity Kernels the physical meaning of probability that for a single source-receiver couple the measured attenuation parameters can be associated with the space coordinates. Based on this definition, the attenuation image can be obtained mapping the estimated attenuation parameters onto the zone under study weighting with the Sensitivity Kernels. We further discuss how to estimate the uncertainties associated with the results and report the list of the papers describing the (separated) scattering- and intrinsic-attenuation structures investigated using this approach.
    Description: Published
    Description: id304
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismic scattering ; seismic imaging ; sensitivity kernels ; seismic attenuation ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-04-13
    Description: Recently, a new strain rate map of Italy and the surrounding areas has been obtained by processing data acquired by the persistent scatterers (PS) of the synthetic aperture radar interferome- try (InSAR) satellites—ERS and ENVISAT—between 1990 and 2012. This map clearly shows that there is a link between the strain rate and all the shallow earthquakes (less than 15 km deep) that occurred from 1990 to today, with their epicenters being placed only in high strain rate areas (e.g., Emilia plain, NW Tuscany, Central Apennines). However, the map also presents various regions with high strain rates but in which no damaging earthquakes have occurred since 1990. One of these regions is the Apennine sector, formed by Sannio and Irpinia. This area represents one of the most important seismic districts with a well-known and recorded seismicity from Roman times up to the present day. In our study, we merged historical records with new satellite techniques that allow for the precise determination of ground movements, and then derived physical dimensions, such as strain rate. In this way, we verified that in Irpinia, the occurrence of new strong shocks—forty years after one of the strongest known seismic events in the district that occurred on the 23 November 1980, measuring Mw 6.8—is still a realistic possibility. The reason for this is that, from 1990, only areas characterized by high strain rates have hosted significant earthquakes. This picture has been also confirmed by analyzing the historical catalog of events with seismic completeness for magnitude M ≥ 6 over the last four centuries. It is easy to see that strong seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 6 generally occurred at a relatively short time distance between one another, with a period of 200 years without strong earthquakes between the years 1732 and 1930. This aspect must be considered as very important from various points of view, particularly for civil protection plans, as well as civil engineering and urban planning development.
    Description: Published
    Description: 168
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Irpinia ; seismic hazard ; strain rate ; GNSS ; InSAR ; earthquake ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Earthquake Environmental Effects (EEEs) are a common occurrence following moderate to strong seismic events. EEEs are described in literary sources even for earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago, but their potential for hazard assessment is not fully exploited. Here we analyze five earthquakes occurred in the Southern Apennines (Italy) between 1688 and 1980, to assess if EEEs are reliable indicators of the effects caused by past earthquakes. We investigate the spatial distribution of EEEs and their ability to repeatedly occur at the same place, and we quantitatively compare the macroseismic fields expressed in terms of damage-based intensity (MCS: Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg) to the Environmental Scale Intensity (ESI) macroseismic field, derived from an intensity attenuation relation. We computed the field “ESI-MCS”, showing that results are consistent when comparing different seismic events and that ESI values are higher in the first ca. 10 km from the epicenter, while at distances greater than 20 km MCS values are higher than ESI. Our research demonstrates that (i) EEEs offer a detailed picture of earthquake effects in the near field and (ii) the reappraisal of literary sources under a modern perspective may provide improved input parameters that are useful for seismic hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 332
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake Environmental Effect; Apennines; ESI scale; intensity attenuation ; 04.04. Geology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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