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  • Articles  (97)
  • 04.06. Seismology
  • Creep observations and analysis
  • Elsevier  (25)
  • MDPI  (25)
  • Springer  (21)
  • SSA  (14)
  • Wiley-AGU  (7)
  • EGU - Copernicus
  • Wiley
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-12
    Description: Public concern about anthropogenic seismic- ity in Italy first arose in the aftermath of the deadly M ≈ 6 earthquakes that hit the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) in May 2012. As these events occurred in a (tectonically active) region of oil and gas production and storage, the question was raised, whether stress perturbations due to underground industrial activities could have induced or triggered the shocks. Following expert recommendations, in 2014, the Italian Oil & Gas Safety Authority (DGS-UNMIG, Ministry of Economic Development) published guidelines (ILG - Indirizzi e linee guida per il monitoraggio della sismicità, delle deformazioni del suolo e delle pressioni di poro nell’ambito delle attività antropiche), describing regula- tions regarding hydrocarbon extraction, waste-water in- jection and gas storage that could also be adapted to other technologies, such as dams, geothermal systems, CO2 storage, and mining. The ILG describe the frame- work for the different actors involved in monitoring activities, their relationship and responsibilities, the procedure to be followed in case of variations of mon- itored parameters, the need for in-depth scientific anal- yses, the definition of different alert levels, their mean- ing and the parameters to be used to activate such alerts. Four alert levels are defined, the transition among which follows a decision to be taken jointly by relevant au- thorities and industrial operator on the basis of evalua- tion of several monitored parameters (micro-seismicity, ground deformation, pore pressure) carried on by a scientific-technical agency. Only in the case of liquid reinjection, the alert levels are automatically activated on the basis of exceedance of thresholds for earthquake magnitude and ground shaking – in what is generally known as a Traffic Light System (TLS). Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia has been charged by the Italian oil and gas safety authority (DGS- UNMIG) to apply the ILG in three test cases (two oil extraction and one gas storage plants). The ILG indeed represent a very important and positive innovation, as they constitute official guidelines to coherently regulate monitoring activity on a national scale. While pilot studies are still mostly under way, we may point out merits of the whole framework, and a few possible critical issues, requiring special care in the implementa- tion. Attention areas of adjacent reservoirs, possibly licenced to different operators, may overlap, hence mak- ing the point for joint monitoring, also in view of the possible interaction between stress changes related to the different reservoirs. The prescribed initial blank- level monitoring stage, aimed at assessing background seismicity, may lose significance in case of nearby ac- tive production. Magnitude – a critical parameter used to define a possible step-up in activation levels – has inherent uncertainty and can be evaluated using differ- ent scales. A final comment considers the fact that relevance of TLS, most frequently used in hydraulic fracturing operations, may not be high in case of trig- gered tectonic events.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1015–1028
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Anthropogenic seismicity ; Alert system ; Monitoring guidelines ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-11-12
    Description: Earthquake hypocentral location is perhaps the most classical problem in seismology, the solution of which is often affected by significant uncertainty. In monitoring the effects of underground anthropogenic activities, the earthquake hypocentral location, magnitude, and ground motions are important parameters for managing induced seismicity (as e.g., for operating traffic‐light systems). Such decisional systems define the operative reactions to be enacted once an earthquake, exceeding some magnitude or ground‐motion threshold, occurs within a monitoring volume defined in the neighborhood of a certain anthropogenic underground activity. In this case, a reliable evaluation of the hypocentral location, along with its uncertainty, becomes crucial for rational decision making. In this article, we analyze different sources of uncertainty that can be relevant for the determination of earthquake source locations, and introduce a logic‐tree‐based ensemble modeling approach for framing the problem in a decision‐making context. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, we analyze uncertainties in the location of a seismic event that occurred on 22 July 2019 within the perimeter of the monitoring domain defined in the Val d’Agri oil field (southern Italy). We cast the result as a model ensemble that allows us to obtain samples from a parent distribution that better represents both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the earthquake location problem. We find that often‐neglected epistemic uncertainties (i.e., those that arise when considering alternative plausible modeling approaches or data) can be considerably larger and more representative of the state of knowledge about the source location, than the standard errors usually reported by the most common algorithms. Given the consequential repercussions of decision making under uncertainty, we stress that an objective evaluation of epistemic uncertainties associated with any parameter used to support decisional processes must be a priority for the scientific community.
    Description: Centro per il Monitoraggio delle attività di Sottosuolo (CMS).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2423–2440
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake location ; uncertainty ; Traffic light systems ; Decision making ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-01-22
    Description: Spectral analysis has been applied to almost thou-sand seismic events recorded at Vesuvius volcano (Naples,southern Italy) in 2018 with the aim to test a new tool fora fast event classification. We computed two spectral pa-rameters, central frequency and shape factor, from the spec-tral moments of order 0, 1, and 2, for each event at sevenseismic stations taking the mean among the three compo-nents of ground motion. The analyzed events consist ofvolcano-tectonic earthquakes, low frequency events and un-classified events (landslides, rockfall, thunders, quarry blasts,etc.). Most of them are of low magnitude, and/or low maxi-mum signal amplitude, therefore the signal to noise ratio isvery different between the low noise summit stations andthe higher noise stations installed at low elevation aroundthe volcano. The results of our analysis show that volcano-tectonic earthquakes and low frequency events are easily dis-tinguishable through the spectral moments values, particu-larly at seismic stations closer to the epicenter. On the con-trary, unclassified events show the spectral parameters valuesdistributed in a broad range which overlap both the volcano-tectonic earthquakes and the low frequency events. Since thecomputation of spectral parameters is extremely easy and fastfor a detected event, it may become an effective tool for eventclassification in observatory practice.
    Description: Published
    Description: 67–74
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; Spectral Analisys ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: On October 27, 2017, an Mw 4 earthquake occurred close to the municipality of Montesano sulla Marcellana, less than 10 km external to the concession of the largest European onshore hydrocarbon reservoir—the Val d’Agri oilfield (Southern Italy). Being a weak event located outside the extended monitoring domain of the industrial concession, the relevance of this earthquake and the possible links with the hydrocarbon exploitation were not extensively discussed. Actually, the analysis of shallow seismic events close to subsurface exploitation domains plays a significant role in the definition of key parameters in order to discriminate between natural, triggered, and induced seismicity, especially in tectonically active regions. The study of weak-to-moderate earthquakes can improve the characterization of the potentially destructive seismic hazard of this particular area, already struck by M 〉 6.5 episodes in the past. In this work, we analyze the source parameters of this Mw 4 earthquake by applying advanced seismological techniques to estimate the uncertainties derived from the moment tensor inversion and identify plausible directivity effects. The moment tensor is dominated by a NW–SE oriented normal faulting with a centroid depth of 14 km. A single ML 2.1 aftershock was recorded and used as the empirical Green’s function to calculate the apparent source time function for the mainshock. Apparent durations (in the range 0.11–0.21 s, obtained from S-waves) define an azimuthal pattern, which reveals an asymmetric bilateral rupture with 70% of the rupture propagation in the N310°Wdirection, suggesting a rupture plane dipping to the SW. Our results tally with the activation of a deeper fault segment associated with the Eastern Agri Fault System close to the basement as the origin of the Montesano earthquake. Finally, the Coulomb stress rate induced by depletion of the oilfield is calculated to quantify the trigger potential estimated for the Montesano earthquake yielding relatively low probabilities below 10%. Our analyses point toward the conclusion that the Mw 4 event was more likely due to the local natural tectonic stress, rather than induced or triggered by the long-term hydrocarbon extraction in the Val d’Agri oilfield.
    Description: Published
    Description: 617794
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: earthquake source ; induced seismicity ; directivity ; triggered earthquake ; Val d’Agri oilfield ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: In order to monitor temporal and spatial crustal activities associated with earthquakes, ground- and satellite-based monitoring systems have been installed in China since the 1990s. In recent years, the correlation between monitoring strain anomalies and local major earthquakes has been verified. In this study, we further evaluate the possibility of strain anomalies containing earthquake precursors by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) prediction. First, strain network anomalies were extracted in the borehole strain data recorded in Western China during 2010–2017. Then, we proposed a new prediction strategy characterized by the number of network anomalies in an anomaly window, Nano, and the length of alarm window, Talm. We assumed that clusters of network anomalies indicate a probability increase of an impending earthquake, and consequently, the alarm window would be the duration during which a possible earthquake would occur. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) between true predicted rate, tpr, and false alarm rate, fpr, is measured to evaluate the efficiency of the prediction strategies. We found that the optimal strategy of short-term forecasts was established by setting the number of anomalies greater than 7 within 14 days and the alarm window at one day. The results further show the prediction strategy performs significantly better when there are frequent enhanced network anomalies prior to the larger earthquakes surrounding the strain network region. The ROC detection indicates that strain data possibly contain the precursory information associated with major earthquakes and highlights the potential for short-term earthquake forecasting.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 41974084 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan, under its observation and Research Program for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 515
    Description: 7T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori sismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: receiver operating characteristic ; a new prediction strategy ; frequent network anomalies ; prediction efficiency ; short-term earthquake forecasting ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Several months of ambient seismic noise recordings are used for investigating the distribution of elastic properties in the Fucino Plain, one of the largest intermontane tectonic depressions of the Italian Apennine chain (Central Italy). The Plain is characterized by a low level of seismicity but the presence of several active faults makes it an Italian area of high seismic hazard. The most recent and strongest seismic event in Fucino Plain occurred in the 1915 (Avezzano earthquake) and it represents one of the most energetic events (Ms = 7.0) happened in central Apennines. Inter-stations Green’s functions are reconstructed by the cross-correlation of continuous ambient noise data recorded from twelve seismic velocimeters deployed around the Avezzano city, and organized in two different temporally sub-networks. The aim of cross-correlation analysis is to extract surface waves from Green’s functions for investigating the dispersive response of the structure. We analyzed the temporal stability of the cross-correlated signals that is used as an indicator of reliability of measurements and as criteria to select the Green’s functions to analyze
    Description: Published
    Description: 1173-1176
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Cross correlation ; Noise ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: The seven islands of Corfu, Paxoi, Kephalonia, Ithaca, Lefkada, Zakynthos, and Cythera (Ionian Sea, offshore western Greece) were a British protectorate with the name of “United States of the Ionian Islands” between 1815 and 1864. Although many earthquake studies have already examined the past seismicity of this area, they contain only a few data for a handful of earthquakes, for an area known to be characterized by a high level of seismicity. Against this fragmentary seismological knowledge stands a 50 yr abundant production of local documentary sources of different types and in diverse languages. For this reason and because most of the available sources had not been yet nor systematically looked into in the search for testimonies of earthquake effects, an ad hoc and comprehensive investigation was carried out. The number of records on earthquake effects is huge as well as unexpected, and the quality of the collected records is high. The 147 new macroseismic European Macroseismic Scale 1998 intensity values, accurately assigned on the basis of independent contemporary records only, are presented in the form of timelines of earthquake effects for the main towns of the four islands of Corfu, Kephalonia, Lefkada, and Zakynthos. Besides partially amending the gaps of the knowledge of these 50 yr of seismicity in the Ionian Islands, the great amount of freshly collected data suggests that historical seismological research may effectively contribute to improving the seismic scenarios of past earthquakes in many areas of the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2554-2562
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismicity ; historical seismology ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-11-30
    Description: Buildings close to each other can perform different behaviour despite its similar seismic vulnerability. This effect is mainly due to the local seismic response connected to the characteristics of the shallow soil layers, especially when we move away from the epicentral area and the near field motion reduces its importance among the total amount of shaking. In this paper we show some results of the microzonation project of the Avezzano municipality, a town located in the southwestern portion of the Abruzzi region, which experienced the severe effects of the January 13th, 1915 M 7.0 earthquake. Starting from a particularly detailed knowledge of the geological characteristics of outcropping lithologies and inferring the trend of subsoil geometries, we explored the role played by the near-surface geology in causing variability of the ground motion by analysing a large database of earthquakes and microtremor recordings acquired by temporary seismological networks using classical site-reference and non-reference spectral techniques. Based on the obtained results we can seismically characterize all the municipal territory not only in terms of fundamental resonance frequency, useful in drawing maps of seismic microzonation and design geological sections, but also of amplification factors helpful in verifying numerical modelling of seismic response as required by national microzonation guidelines. We have also found many criticisms that need a more detailed analysis in order to establish the cause of these anomalies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1153-1157
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Microzonation ; Site response ; Spectral techniques ; Seismic amplification ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-02-02
    Description: Abstract: In this paper we review and discuss the seismic method based on the analysis of seismic coda waves used in the last 10 years by the present authors and/or their co-workers, to produce separate images of intrinsic- and scattering attenuation in zones of peculiar geological interest (mainly volcanoes). Such separate attenuation images are considered by the scientific community as complementary to those from ordinary velocity-tomography and useful to improve the geological interpretation in volcanoes and in tectonically active zones. In this review we only list but do not discuss the most significative papers showing the images obtained, as we are focused to review the method and not the interpretation of data analysis. For sake of completeness, we anyway show also a new analysis applied to data from Stromboli volcano. We thus first introduce the physical model describing the seismogram Energy Envelope (derived from the solution of the Energy Transport integral Equation) and discuss its asymptotic approximations (Diffusion- and Single-scattering model). Then, we describe a numerical method to heuristically calculate the Sensitivity Kernels for the propagation of the scattered waves in the assumption of isotropic scattering. We attribute to these Sensitivity Kernels the physical meaning of probability that for a single source-receiver couple the measured attenuation parameters can be associated with the space coordinates. Based on this definition, the attenuation image can be obtained mapping the estimated attenuation parameters onto the zone under study weighting with the Sensitivity Kernels. We further discuss how to estimate the uncertainties associated with the results and report the list of the papers describing the (separated) scattering- and intrinsic-attenuation structures investigated using this approach.
    Description: Published
    Description: id304
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismic scattering ; seismic imaging ; sensitivity kernels ; seismic attenuation ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-04-13
    Description: Recently, a new strain rate map of Italy and the surrounding areas has been obtained by processing data acquired by the persistent scatterers (PS) of the synthetic aperture radar interferome- try (InSAR) satellites—ERS and ENVISAT—between 1990 and 2012. This map clearly shows that there is a link between the strain rate and all the shallow earthquakes (less than 15 km deep) that occurred from 1990 to today, with their epicenters being placed only in high strain rate areas (e.g., Emilia plain, NW Tuscany, Central Apennines). However, the map also presents various regions with high strain rates but in which no damaging earthquakes have occurred since 1990. One of these regions is the Apennine sector, formed by Sannio and Irpinia. This area represents one of the most important seismic districts with a well-known and recorded seismicity from Roman times up to the present day. In our study, we merged historical records with new satellite techniques that allow for the precise determination of ground movements, and then derived physical dimensions, such as strain rate. In this way, we verified that in Irpinia, the occurrence of new strong shocks—forty years after one of the strongest known seismic events in the district that occurred on the 23 November 1980, measuring Mw 6.8—is still a realistic possibility. The reason for this is that, from 1990, only areas characterized by high strain rates have hosted significant earthquakes. This picture has been also confirmed by analyzing the historical catalog of events with seismic completeness for magnitude M ≥ 6 over the last four centuries. It is easy to see that strong seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 6 generally occurred at a relatively short time distance between one another, with a period of 200 years without strong earthquakes between the years 1732 and 1930. This aspect must be considered as very important from various points of view, particularly for civil protection plans, as well as civil engineering and urban planning development.
    Description: Published
    Description: 168
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Irpinia ; seismic hazard ; strain rate ; GNSS ; InSAR ; earthquake ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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