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  • E62  (28)
  • Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)  (27)
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  • 1
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2019-11-23
    Description: Preferences over wealth can explain why households do not spend more when real interest rates fall, because they save more than optimal under a standard model. However, little is known about preferences over wealth empirically. We run an intentionally simple lab experiment on intertemporal spending and saving decisions with 180 students. Under a positive discount factor, zero interest and linear utility, maximizing behaviour would imply spending any funds instantaneously. While half of the participants behave optimally, we find a robust pattern where participants on average form and maintain a stock of wealth, consistent with wealth entering the utility function directly.
    Description: In kürzlich erschienen Veröffentlichungen werden sogenannte Vermögenspräferenzen (preferences over wealth) als eine mögliche Erklärung dafür angeführt, warum Haushalte nicht mehr ausgeben, obwohl das Zinsniveau sehr niedrig ist. Mit Vermögenspräferenzen sparen Haushalte mehr als in einem Standardmodell "optimal" wäre. Allerdings gibt es bisher wenig empirische Evidenz über solche Vermögenspräferenzen. Wir führen ein möglichst einfach gehaltenes Labor-Experiment zu intertemporalen Ausgabe- und Sparentscheidungen mit 180 Studenten durch. Im Experiment wäre die optimale Entscheidung, sämtliche Guthaben sofort auszugeben, da wir einen positiven Diskontfaktor, einen Zinssatz von Null und keine Anreize zur Konsumglättung vorgeben. Während sich ca. die Hälfte der Probanden "optimal" im Sinne der Auszahlungsfunktion verhält, ergibt sich dennoch ein deutliches Muster, wonach die Probanden im Durchschnitt ein gewisses Sparguthaben aufbauen und beibehalten. Die Ergebnisse sind konsistent mit einem Modell, in dem Sparguthaben direkt Nutzen stiftet.
    Keywords: D12 ; E21 ; E62 ; H23 ; ddc:330 ; consumption ; saving motives ; wealth ; experiment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-21
    Description: On the one hand, every official document about fiscal policy in Spain, and most orthodox academic papers argue that Spain has no "fiscal space" and that it should apply resolute actions to assure budget consolidation. On the other hand, Spain also had the second highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone in 2015: 21% of the active population. A rapid decline in that rate would require a higher fiscal impulse to sustain higher economic growth rates. This IMK working paper addresses this dilemma, presenting two alternative scenarios for the next years analyzing their impact on unemployment and fiscal sustainability. The first scenario represents a firm commitment to budget consolidation, while in the second the government uses the fiscal instrument to stimulate domestic demand and ensures a GDP growth rate target. The second scenario is based on an application of an "imperfect" balanced budget multiplier, proposing a combination of discretionary increases in both public expenditure and revenue. The main conclusion is that the end of fiscal austerity is feasible and perfectly compatible with fiscal finances sustainability for Spain. In addition some more general topics are discussed: the difference between the "functional finance" and the "sound finance" approaches to fiscal policy; the possibility of a Balanced Budget expansion; a discussion of the concept of "fiscal space"; and the inadequacy of European fiscal rules.
    Description: Einerseits gehen alle offiziellen Dokumente zur Fiskalpolitik in Spanien und die meisten wissenschaftlichen Veröffentlichungen des ökonomischen Mainstreams davon aus, dass Spanien keinen fiskalischen Spielraum habe und dass das Land entschiedene Maßnahmen ergreifen sollte, um eine Haushaltskonsolidierung sicherzustellen. Andererseits hatte Spanien im Jahr 2015 die zweithöchste Arbeitslosenquote im Euroraum: 21 % der Erwerbspersonen. Eine rasche Rückführung dieser Quote würde einen höheren Fiskalimpuls erfordern, damit höhere Wachstumsraten aufrechterhalten werden können. Das vorliegende Working Paper untersucht dieses Dilemma anhand von zwei alternativen Szenarios für die kommenden Jahre und ihren Auswirkungen auf die Arbeitslosigkeit und die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen. Das erste Szenario enthält eine feste Verpflichtung zur Haushaltskonsolidierung, während die Regierung im zweiten Szenario mit Hilfe der Fiskalpolitik die Binnennachfrage anregt und dafür sorgt, dass ein vorgegebenes Wachstumsziel erreicht wird. Das zweite Szenario stützt sich auf die Anwendung eines "unvollständigen" Balanced-Budget-Multipliers. Hier wird eine Kombination diskretionärer Erhöhungen von öffentlichen Ausgaben wie Einnahmen angenommen. Das wichtigste Ergebnis ist, dass ein Ende der Austerität möglich und mit einer Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Spanien gut vereinbar ist. Darüber hinaus werden einige allgemeinere Fragestellungen diskutiert: der Unterschied zwischen dem "functional finance"-Ansatz und dem "sound finance"-Ansatz in der Fiskalpolitik, die Möglichkeit einer expansiven Fiskalpolitik bei einem ausgeglichenen Haushalt, das Konzept des fiskalischen Spielraums und die Unzulänglichkeiten der europäischen Fiskalregeln.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal Policy ; Fiscal Space ; Functional Finance ; Balance Budget Multiplier ; Spain
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Using the bottom-up approach of Romer and Romer (2010), we construct a rich narrative dataset of net-revenue fiscal shocks for Germany by reconstructing and extending the tax shock series of Hayo and Uhl (2014) and coding a shock series for social security contributions, benefits and transfers. Based on quarterly data for 1974q1 to 2013q4 we estimate the multiplier effects of shocks to net-revenues, taxes, social security contributions and benefits in a proxy SVAR framework (Mertens and Ravn 2013) and compare them with estimates of the top-down identification inspired by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). We find multiplier effects of net-revenue components for Germany between 0 and 1 for both the top-down and bottom-up approaches. These estimates are on the lower end of the scale given in the literature and we discuss the differences.
    Description: Aus Informationen von Gesetzesänderungen konstruieren wir einen umfangreichen narrativen Datensatz exogener fiskalpolitischer Schocks für Deutschland (Bottom-Up-Ansatz von Romer und Romer 2010). Dafür reproduzieren und erweitern wir die existierende Schockserie für Steuerrechtsänderungen von Hayo und Uhl (2014) und ergänzen sie durch eine selbst kodierte Zeitreihe für die Sozialgesetzgebung. Mit diesen Daten schätzen wir für den Zeitraum 1974q1 bis 2013q4 die Multiplikatoreffekte von Nettoeinnahme-, Steuer-, Sozialversicherungsbeitrags- und Transfer-Schocks in einem Proxy-SVAR-Ansatz (Mertens und Ravn 2013). Wir vergleichen die Ergebnisse mit Schätzungen, in denen die Schocks nach einem Top-Down-Ansatz identifiziert werden (Blanchard und Perotti 2002). Wir finden für Deutschland Multiplikatoreffekte zwischen 0 und 1 für diese Nettoeinnahmekomponenten - sowohl im Top-Down als auch im Bottom-Up-Ansatz. Diese Schätzungen liegen eher am unteren Ende der Skala in der Literatur und wir diskutieren die Unterschiede.
    Keywords: E62 ; H20 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; Narrative Record Identification ; Action-Based Approach ; Fiscal Multipliers ; Revenue Elasticities
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: It is by now a widely shared insight that fiscal policy needs to be re-strengthened as a macroeconomic policy instrument within European macroeconomic policies: Recent experiences with austerity policies, new research regarding the size of the fiscal multiplier and the fact that monetary policy is obviously overstrained have led to this conclusion. As a consequence, increases in public investment are particularly necessary. Against this background this contribution discusses and proposes the introduction of the traditional public finance golden rule into the EU/Eurozone fiscal framework (Stability and growth pact (SGP), Fiscal Compact (FC)). Such a rule would exempt public (net) investment suitably defined from the relevant deficit targets of both the preventive and the corrective arm of the SGP as well as the FC. That way, fiscal policy would be upgraded and receive larger room for manoeuvre and public investment as a particularly growth enhancing public expenditure category would be strengthened. Different definitions are discussed and a pragmatic definition based on the national accounts with some modifications is proposed. The standard reservations against a golden rule are critically assessed, but mostly discarded. However, the potential limits of the golden rule are examined by way of pragmatic multiplier-based macroeconomic assessments: Would a golden rule have prevented the austerity crisis since 2010? Would other expenditure categories - particularly spending on social policy - have necessarily suffered? Would a golden rule leave sufficient fiscal leeway for expansionary fiscal policy in the current situation? The results are encouraging, yet they show, that the golden rule alone would not be sufficient to stabilise the Euro area economies.
    Description: Dass die Fiskalpolitik innerhalb der europäischen Wirtschaftspolitik einer Aufwertung bedarf, ist angesichts der Erfahrungen mit der Austeritätspolitik, der neueren Forschungsergebnisse zur Höhe der Fiskalmultiplikatoren und der offensichtlich an Grenzen stoßenden Geldpolitik mittlerweile weitestgehend anerkannt. Insbesondere höhere öffentliche Investitionen werden fast einhellig für notwendig und sinnvoll gehalten. Das Working Paper diskutiert vor diesem Hintergrund die Einführung der traditionellen finanzwissenschaftlichen Goldenen Regel in das fiskalische Regelwerk aus Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt (SWP) und Fiskalpakt(FP) der EU/Eurozone. Eine solche Regel würde die öffentlichen (Netto-)Investitionen in geeigneter Definition von den Defizitgrenzwerten des präventiven und korrektiven Zweigs des SWP sowie des FP ausnehmen und so der Finanzpolitik insgesamt größere Spielräume einräumen und die öffentlichen Investitionen als besonders wachstumsrelevante öffentliche Ausgabenkomponente stärken. Der Beitrag diskutiert unterschiedliche Definitionen und spricht sich für eine pragmatische relativ enge VGR-bezogene Definition aus. Die üblichen Einwände gegen goldene Regeln werden kritisch diskutiert und größtenteils für nicht zutreffend gehalten. Allerdings werden auch die Grenzen der Goldenen Regel mittels makroökonomischer Multiplikator-gestützter Plausibilitätsüberlegungen kritisch hinterfragt: Hätte eine Goldene Regel seit dem Jahr 2010 die Austeritätskrise verhindern können? Würde eine Goldene Regel gegenwärtig genug Spielräume für einen expansiven fiskalischen Impuls lassen?
    Keywords: E22 ; E61 ; E62 ; E65 ; H54 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; golden rule ; public investment ; fiscal policy ; austerity ; Euro area
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Exploiting official historical records of the German Bundestag and Bundesrat, the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the German statutory pension insurance scheme, we construct a narrative of legislated social security changes for Germany between 1970 and 2013 in order to identify important discretionary shocks to the social security system. The historical account covers major changes in transfers and social security benefits and contributions for pensions, health care, long-term care and unemployment insurance on the German federal level and thus complements the tax narrative of Uhl (2013). Based on the provided information we are able to code a rich bottom-up time-series of fiscal policy shocks for empirical macroeconomic analysis, addressing the identification problem. Therefore, we collect information regarding the underlying motivation, the dates of the legislative process and the prospective financial impact, closely following the methodology of Romer and Romer (2010) and Uhl (2013).
    Description: Anhand von offiziellen historischen Informationen des Deutschen Bundestags und Bundesrats, des Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales, sowie der Deutschen Rentenversicherung erstellen wir einen umfangreichen narrativen Datensatz von Änderungen in der Sozialgesetzgebung Deutschlands zwischen 1970 und 2013. Wir kodieren die zugrundeliegende Motivationen, Zeitpunkte des Gesetzgebungsverfahrens und die potenziellen finanziellen Auswirkungen. Unser Datensatz beinhaltet wesentliche Änderungen bei Leistungen, Transfers und Beiträgen in der Renten-, Kranken-, Pflege-, sowie Arbeitslosenversicherung und Sozialhilfe auf Bundesebene und ergänzt damit den Datensatz von Uhl (2013) zu Steuerrechtsänderungen. Mit den Daten erstellen wir eine Bottom-up-Zeitreihe wesentlicher diskretionärer finanzpolitischer Schocks des Nettotransfersystems für empirische makroökonomische Analysen, um das Identifikationsproblem zu adressieren. Wir folgen im Wesentlichen der Vorgehensweise von Romer und Romer (2010), und Uhl (2013).
    Keywords: E62 ; H20 ; H30 ; H55 ; N00 ; ddc:330 ; Narrative Record Identification ; Action-Based Approach ; Social Security
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-03-07
    Description: This paper studies the wasteful effect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between opportunistic behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill. In particular, public officials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. A simple extraction technology in the government administration is introduced in a standard Real-Business-Cycle (RBC) setup augmented with detailed public sector. The model is calibrated to German data for the period 1970-2007. The main findings are: (i) the model performs well vis-a-vis the data; (ii) Due to the existence of a significant public sector wage premium and the high public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent in opportunistic activities, which in turn leads to significant losses in terms of output; (iii) The model-based loss measures obtained for the EU-12 countries are highly-correlated to indices of bureaucratic inefficiency.
    Description: in press
    Keywords: E62 ; J45 ; E69 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; rent-seeking ; opportunism ; public employment ; government wages
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-21
    Description: This paper measures the net redistributive impact of the EU budget. It finds that for every € 1,000 difference in income per capita across countries, € 9 is offset by lower contributions to the budget and € 3 is offset by higher expenditures by the budget. The overall equalising effect is small (1.1%) and mainly depends on the revenue side, in particular on the national contribution based on GNI and VAT, which is also the main source of stabilisation. The analysis shows how the various corrections mechanisms applied to the revenue side of the budget reduce its redistributive and stabilisation capacity. The policy conclusions are that on the revenue side, since the national contribution based on GNI is the main source of redistribution and stabilisation, its reduction could reduce the already minimal capacity of the budget to perform these functions. On the expenditure side, the shift from pre-allocated types of expenditures towards non-pre-allocated ones may determine a reduction of the overall redistributive capacity of the budget.
    Description: Das vorliegende Papier untersucht den Nettoumverteilungseffekt des EU-Budgets. Es zeigt, dass es für je € 1000 Differenz des Pro-Kopf-Bruttonationaleinkommens zu einem Ausgleich von € 9 für geringere Budgetbeiträge und € 3 bei höheren Ausgaben kommt. Der Gesamtausgleicheffekt ist mit 1,1% gering und abhängig von der Einnahmenseite, im Besonderen von nationalen Beiträgen bemessen am Bruttonationaleinkommen oder an der Umsatzsteuer. Die Einnahmenseite trägt gleichzeitig maßgeblich zur Stabilisierung bei. Die Analyse zeigt, wie verschiedene Korrekturmechanismen der Einnahmeseite Umverteilungs- und Stabilisationskapazitäten des Budgets reduzieren. Daraus ergeben sich folgende politische Schlussfolgerungen: Eine Reduktion auf der Einnahmeseite kann, gegeben die nationalen Budgetbeiträge dienen als Hauptquelle der Umverteilung und Stabilisierung, die bereits minimale Umverteilungs- und Stabilisierungskapazität des EU-Budgets vermindern. Auf der Ausgabenseite kann eine Verschiebung von vorab zugewiesenen (pre-allocated) zu nicht zugewiesenen Ausgaben eine Reduktion der Gesamtumverteilungskapazität des EU-Budgets herbeiführen.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; H11 ; H61 ; H77 ; ddc:330 ; Öffentlicher Haushalt ; Verteilungswirkung ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: We simulate the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation between 2011 and 2013 by employing two DSGE models used by the ECB and the European Commission, respectively. The cumulative multiplier amounts to 0.7 and 1.0 in the baseline, but increases to 1.3 with a reasonably calibrated financial accelerator and a crisis-related increase of the share of liquidity constrained households. In the latter scenario, fiscal consolidation would be largely responsible for the decline in the output gap from 2011-2013. Postponing the fiscal consolidation to a period of unconstrained monetary policy (until after the economic recovery) would have avoided most of these losses.
    Description: Wir simulieren die Haushaltskonsolidierung im Euroraum im Zeitraum 2011 bis 2013 mit Hilfe von zwei DSGE Modellen der EZB und der Europäischen Kommission. Der kumulative Multiplikator beträgt 0.7 bzw. 1.0 in der Basislinie, steigt aber auf 1.3, wenn die Modelle um einen plausibel kalibrierter Finanzakzelerator erweitert und der Anteil liquiditätsbeschränkter Haushalte krisenbedingt erhöht wird. Im letzteren Szenario trägt die Haushaltskonsolidierung die maßgebliche Verantwortung für die Verschlechterung der Produktionslücke im Zeitraum 2011 bis 2013. Wäre die Haushaltskonsolidierung erst in einer Phase mit uneingeschränktem geldpolitischen Handlungsspielraum vorgenommen worden (d.h. nach der Erholung der Wirtschaft) hätte der Großteil der BIP-Verluste verhindert werden können.
    Keywords: E32 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal policy simulations ; fiscal consolidation ; fiscal multiplier ; Euro Area
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The trend of increasing inequality in the distribution of income and wealth in most developed countries has led to calls for corrective tax increases for the rich and wealthy. Such calls are often confronted with the claim that higher taxes on top personal incomes, corporate income and wealth are detrimental to growth and employment and/or will foster tax avoidance. This paper argues that even the dominating theoretical framework leaves substantial leeway for redistributive taxation. Furthermore, from a Keynesian macroeconomic perspective redistribution may even be systematically conducive to growth and employment. At the same time a change towards such a policy of redistribution may for some economies, particularly the German one, well be the prerequisite for compliance with the European Fiscal Compact if an increase of the macroeconomic imbalances that have come to be seen as a root cause of the global financial and economic crisis 2008/2009 and also the Euro crisis by many observers is to be avoided. Therefore, besides attempts at international tax coordination and harmonisation, national tax policies should actively use their room of manoeuvre for progressive taxation to correct the disparities in the income distribution and at the same time to increase the fiscal space.
    Description: Der trendmäßige Anstieg der Einkommens- und Vermögensungleichheit in den moisten Industrieländern hat zu Forderungen nach höheren Steuern für hohe Einkommen und Vermögen geführt. Solche Forderungen sehen sich jedoch häufig der Behauptung ausgesetzt, dass entsprechende Steuererhöhungen wachstums- und beschäftigungsfeindlich seien oder zu Steuervermeidungsaktivitäten führten. Das vorliegende Papier hebt demgegenüber hervor, dass es selbst im dominierenden theoretischen Mainstreamrahmen erhebliche Spielräume für steuerpolitische Umverteilung gibt. Zudem kann Umverteilung aus einer keynesianischen makroökonomischen Perspektive sogar systematisch positive Wachstums- und Beschäftigungseffekte haben. Für einige Volkswirtschaften - insbesondere die deutsche - könnte ein Politikwechsel in Richtung Umverteilung sogar die Voraussetzung für die Einhaltung der Schuldenbremse und des Fiskalpaktes sein, wenn eine Zunahme der internationalen Leistungsbilanz-ungleichgewichte vermieden werden soll. Aus diesen Gründen sollten die Nationalstaaten neben Versuchen der internationalen Steuerkoordinierung aktiv die nationalen Spielräume für eine progressivere Besteuerung nutzen.
    Keywords: E62 ; H23 ; E21 ; ddc:330 ; macroeconomic effects of taxation ; redistribution and macroeconomic performance ; macroeconomic imbalances
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: We study a demand-driven growth and distribution model with a public sector, both without and with government debt. Government spending is used to finance the accumulation of public capital and to pay wages to public employees. The interaction between public capital and induced technical change makes long-run growth: (i) hump-shaped in the composition of government spending, (ii) wage-led, and (iii) government spending-led. Provided that the interest rate on government bonds is kept sufficiently below the growth rate, the size of government debt is irrelevant for long-run growth.
    Description: Wir studieren ein Nachfrage-bestimmtes Wachstums- und Verteilungsmodell mit einem öffentlichen Sektor, sowohl mit als auch ohne Staatsschulden. Die Staatsausgaben finanzieren sowohl Akkumulation von öffentlichem Kapital als auch die Löhne von Staatsbediensteten. Die langfristige Wachstumsrate ist durch die Interaktion von technischem Fortschritt und öffentlichem Kapital (i) konkav je nach Zusammensetzung öffentlicher Ausgaben (ii) positiv von der Lohnquote und (iii) positiv vom Volumen der Staatsausgaben abhängig. Vorausgesetzt, dass der auf Staatsanleihen zu zahlende Zinssatz in ausreichendem Maße niedriger ist als die Wachstumsrate, hat die Höhe der Staatsschulden keinerlei Einfluss auf das langfristige Wachstum.
    Keywords: E12 ; E25 ; E62 ; H50 ; ddc:330 ; Keynesian growth ; Government spending composition ; Factor shares ; Fiscal policy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: This report attempts to examine the impact of the crisis and crisis policies on incomes, inequality and poverty in Greece. Based on extensive income and tax data, it investigates changes in incomes, direct, indirect and property taxation and their incidence between 2008 and 2012-13, their impact on pre- and post-tax inequality and the resulting social reclassifications within the Greek society. The report is distinguishing income by sources at the deciles level, including the top 1% and 0.1%, household and individual income while focusing also on the sub-groups of the 'same households' and the 'same individuals'. Furthermore, the analysis combines unemployment and income data and uses an 'index of despair' reflecting the pressure felt by households hit from salary drop and unemployment. The findings suggest that pauperisation hit large parts of the society, that policies had very differentiated effects on different groups and that, therefore, average values obscure contrasting changes in inequality regarding particular sub-groups, that during the crisis all income classes comprise winners and losers and last, but not least, that many macro-variables and social indicators were the result of a deficient crisis management approach and ideological inflexibility coupled to established political interests, making the exit from the crisis more complicated and painful. The findings of this analysis should be assessed in the light of the severe economic depression caused by the Troika's policies.
    Description: Die Studie untersucht den Einfluss der Krise und der getroffenen Maßnahmen auf die Einkommen, die Einkommensverteilung und Armut in Griechenland. Basierend auf detaillierten Einkommens- und Steuerdaten werden die Veränderungen der Einkommen, der direkten und indirekten Steuern und der Vermögensbesteuerung zwischen 2008 und 2012-13 untersucht und in ihren Wirkungen auf die Einkommensverteilung und die sozialen Veränderungen in der griechischen Gesellschaft analysiert. Die Studie unterscheidet die Einkommen nach Einkommensart untergliedert nach Dezilen für die Haushalte und die individuellen Einkommen, zusätzlich werden auch die Hocheinkommensgruppen weiter differenziert. Dabei werden auch die Veränderungen in den Untergruppen der "gleichen Haushalte" und bei den "gleichen Individuen" untersucht. Zusätzlich werden Arbeitslosen- und Einkommensdaten kombiniert und ein "Index der Verzweiflung" erstellt, der den Druck auf die Haushalte deutlich machen soll, die sowohl von abnehmenden Einkommen als auch von Arbeitslosigkeit betroffen sind. Letztlich zeigen die Ergebnisse aber auch ein sehr differenziertes Bild. Auf der einen Seite sind große Teile der Gesellschaft wirtschaftlich verarmt. In allen Einkommensklassen gab es neben den Verlierern aber auch Gewinner. Von den Politikmaßnahmen waren verschiedene Gruppen sehr unterschiedlich betroffen. Letztlich zeigen viele makroökonomischen und sozialen Indikatoren, dass aufgrund des schlechten Krisenmanagements und aus ideologischen Gründe verbunden mit den vorherrschenden politischen Interessen der Ausweg aus der Krise komplizierter und schmerzhafter geriet als notwendig. Das alles wird untersucht vor dem Hintergrund der von der Troika veranlassten massiven Kontraktion der Wirtschaft.
    Keywords: D31 ; E62 ; H12 ; ddc:330 ; income distribution ; fiscal policy ; crisis management
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Eric Tymoigne and Randall Wray's (T&W, 2013) defense of MMT leaves the MMT emperor even more naked than before (excuse the Yogi Berra-ism). The criticism of MMT is not that it has produced nothing new. The criticism is that MMT is a mix of old and new, the old is correct and well understood, while the new is substantially wrong. Among many failings, T&W fail to provide an explanation of how MMT generates full employment with price stability; lack a credible theory of inflation; and fail to justify the claim that the natural rate of interest is zero. MMT currently has appeal because it is a policy polemic for depressed times. That makes for good politics but, unfortunately, MMT's policy claims are based on unsubstantiated economics.
    Keywords: E00 ; E02 ; E10 ; E12 ; E24 ; E40 ; E58 ; E62 ; E63 ; ddc:330 ; modern money theory ; money financed budget deficits ; fiscal policy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Fiscal policy in the Euro area is still dominated by austerity measures implemented under the institutional setting of the 'reformed' stability and growth pact, and the even stricter 'fiscal compact'. At the same time, calls for a more expansionary fiscal policy to overcome the economic crisis have become more frequent, recently. Therefore, the article tries to assess the remaining leeway for a truly expansionary fiscal policy within the existing institutional framework. Special emphasis is put on the method of cyclical adjustment employed by the European commission in order to assess member states' fiscal position and effort. It turns out that even in the existing framework the leeway for a macroeconomically and socially more sensible fiscal policy using the interpretational leeway inherent in the rules is quite substantial.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; E65 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal policy ; austerity ; cyclical adjustment of public finances ; Euro area
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Die Studie untersucht, ob fiskalische Multiplikatoreffekte im Abschwung systematisch größer sind als im Aufschwung. Dazu wird eine Meta-Regressions-Analyse durchgeführt, die einen neuartigen Datensatz von 98 empirischen Studien mit über 1800 Beobachtungen von Multiplikatoreffekten auswertet und für die Regime-Abhängigkeit von Multiplikatoren kontrolliert. Es zeigt sich, dass ausgabeseitige Multiplikatoren im Abschwung um 0,6 bis 0,8 Punkte höher liegen. Darüber hinaus übersteigen ausgabeseitige Maßnahmen in ihrer Multiplikatorwirkung signifikant jene von Steueränderungen um etwa 0,3 während konjunktureller Normalphasen - und noch deutlicher im Abschwung. Auf einer breiten Basis empirischer Evidenz schlussfolgern wir, dass zur Begrenzung der negativen Folgen auf die Konjunktur Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen besser im Aufschwung und verstärkt über die Einnahmeseite erfolgen sollten.
    Keywords: E27 ; E62 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal multiplier ; regime dependance ; meta regression analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 15
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The paper discusses the trajectories of the Greek public deficit andsovereign debt between 1980 and 2010 and its connection to thepolitical and economic environment of the same period. We payspecial attention to the causality between the public and the externaldeficit in the period after 1995, the post-Maastricht treaty period.We argue that, due to the European monetary unification processand the adoption of the common currency, causality ran fromthe external deficit to the public deficit. This hypothesis is testedeconometrically using both Granger Causality and Cointegrationanalyses. We find empirical support for this hypothesis.
    Description: Wir diskutieren die Entwicklung des öffentlichen Defizits und der Staatsverschuldung in Griechenland zwischen 1980 und 2010 vor dem Hintergrund der politischen und wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen dieser Zeit. Wir legen besonderes Augenmerk auf die Kausalität zwischen den Defiziten im öffentlichen und im Außensektor ab 1995, die Zeit nach dem Vertrag von Maastricht. Wir argumentieren, dass die Einführung einer gemeinsamen Währung zu einem strukturellen Leistungsbilanzdefizit geführt hat. Demzufolge implizierte das Defizit im Außensektor auch ein Defizit im öffentlichen Sektor auf Grund der Saldenmechanik. Wir testen diese Hypothese ökonometrisch mithilfe von Granger-Causality Tests und Kointegrationsanalyse. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen unsere Hypothese.
    Keywords: E62 ; F21 ; F34 ; F41 ; ddc:330 ; Greece ; crisis ; public debt ; twin deficits ; imbalances
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: This paper qualifies the view of pronounced overpricing of sovereign bonds for the so-called GIIPS countries during the financial crisis. We use annual data for 21 OECD countries from 1980 to 2012. As opposed to related studies, our data set allows us to contrast the pricing of macroeconomic fundamentals between three distinct phases: The period before the signing of the Maastricht treaty, the EMU-convergence era, and the financial crisis. In detail, we find: (i) Since the 1980s the role of public debt for the pricing of government bonds has changed twice: Firstly following the signing of the Maastricht treaty, and again with the wake-up call due to the onset of the financial crisis. (ii) Before the financial crisis EMU member countries had - de facto - been perceived as a homogenous group with regard to the role of public debt for sovereign risk pricing. (iii) With the reconsideration of country-specfic fundamentals the role of public debt has not only been revived but its impact upon bond yield spreads has become comparable to the time before the Maastricht treaty.
    Keywords: E34 ; E44 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; EMU ; GIIPS ; Public Debt ; Risk Perception ; Sovereign Bond Yields
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: We show that fiscal multiplier estimations may be biased by movements in asset and credit markets, as they facilitate spurious correlations of changes in cyclically adjusted revenues and spending with GDP growth via wrong identifications and an omitted variable bias, thus overstating episodes of expansionary consolidations and downplaying contractionary consolidations. When controlling for asset and credit market movements in otherwise standard approaches to identification, we find multipliers to increase on average by 0.3 to 0.6 units. Consolidations are thus more likely to be contractionary and more harmful to growth than expected by some strands of the existing literature.
    Keywords: C22 ; E62 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; multiplier effects ; fiscal policy ; asset markets ; credit markets
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: We apply meta regression analysis to a unique data set of 104 studies on multiplier effects with 1069 reported multipliers in order to derive stylized facts and to quantify the differing effectiveness of the composition of fiscal impulses, adjusted for the interference of study-design characteristics and sample specifics. As a major result, we find that public spending multipliers are close to one and about 0.3 to 0.4 units larger than tax and transfer multipliers. Public investment multipliers are even larger by approximately 0.5 units. Reported multipliers vary with study-design, thus, policy consulting based on a certain multiplier study should lay open by how much specification affects the results. Our meta analysis provides guidance concerning influential factors, their sign and magnitude.
    Keywords: E27 ; E62 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; multiplier effects ; fiscal policy ; meta analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 19
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: This paper excavates the set of ideas known as modern monetary theory (MMT). The principal conclusion is that the macroeconomics of MMT is a restatement of elementary well-understood Keynesian macroeconomics. There is nothing new in MMT's construction of monetary macroeconomics that warrants the distinct nomenclature of MMT. Moreover, MMT over-simplifies the challenges of attaining non-inflationary full employment by ignoring the dilemmas posed by Phillips curve analysis; the dilemmas associated with maintaining real and financial sector stability; and the dilemmas confronting open economies. Its policy recommendations also rest on over-simplistic analysis that takes little account of political economy difficulties, and its interest rate policy recommendation would likely generate instability. At this time of high unemployment, when too many policymakers are being drawn toward mistaken fiscal austerity, MMT's polemic on behalf of expansionary fiscal policy is useful. However, that does not justify turning a blind eye to MMT's oversimplifications of macroeconomic theory and policy.
    Keywords: E00 ; E02 ; E10 ; E12 ; E24 ; E40 ; E58 ; E62 ; E63 ; ddc:330 ; modern monetary theory ; money financed budget deficits ; fiscal policy ; Zins ; Geldtheorie ; Haushaltsdefizit ; Finanzpolitik ; Phillips-Kurve ; Keynesianismus
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Since the fiscal expansion during the Great Recession 2008-2009 and the current European consolidation and austerity measures, the analysis of fiscal multiplier effects is back on the scientific agenda. The number of empirical studies is growing fast, tackling the issue with manifold model classes, identification strategies, and specifications. While plurality of methods seems to be a good idea to address a complicated issue, the results are far off consensus. We apply meta regression analysis to a set of 89 studies on multiplier effects in order to provide a systematic overview of the different approaches, to derive stylized facts and to separate structural from method-specific effects. We classify studies with respect to type of fiscal impulse, model class, multiplier calculation method and further control variables. Moreover, we analyse subsamples of the model classes in order to evaluate the effects of model-class-specific properties, currently discussed in the literature, such as the influence of central bank reaction functions and liquidity constrained households. As a major result, we find that the reported size of the fiscal multiplier crucially depends on the setting and method chosen. Thus, economic policy consulting based on a certain multiplier study should lay open by how much specification affects the results. Our meta analysis may provide guidance concerning influential factors.
    Keywords: E27 ; E62 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; multiplier effects ; fiscal policy ; meta analysis ; Finanzpolitik ; Multiplikator ; Regression ; Meta-Analyse
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The short-run macroeconomic effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on the effect of policy on AD and the effect of AD on output. This paper examines how macroeconomic perspectives (Keynesian, Post Keynesian, monetarist, classical, new classical, and new Keynesian) describe the effect of AD on output, thereby making or denying space for fiscal policy to impact output. The neo-Ricardian hypothesis (NRH) concerns the effect of bond financed deficits on AD. The NRH turns on the microeconomic behavior of households and can therefore hold in principle in both classical and Keynesian models. Recent new Keynesian arguments about fiscal policy being effective at the zero lower bound represent another capital market imperfection critique of the NRH.
    Keywords: E6 ; E62 ; H3 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal policy ; Keynesian ; Post Keynesian ; monetarist ; classical ; new Keynesian ; neo-Ricardian hypothesis ; zero lower bound ; Finanzpolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Dogmengeschichte ; Vergleich ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: This paper explores the macroeconomics of fiscal austerity and deflation in an economy with public debt. A binding budget deficit cap destabilizes the economy by turning the government budget into an automatic destabilizer. Public debt helps maintain AD in the presence of deflation because deflation increases the real value of public interest payments. That makes public debt significantly different from private debt. If the economy is subject to a binding deficit cap, deflation no longer stabilizes output. This is because increased real interest payments must be matched by spending cuts, giving rise to a negative balanced budget multiplier.
    Keywords: E12 ; E60 ; E62 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal austerity ; budget deficit cap ; public debt ; deflation growth theory ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Deflation ; Konjunkturtheorie ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The concept of financial balances implies that the general government balance can be improved only if the enterprise sector and the foreign sector simultaneously increase their financial deficits and the household sector cuts its surplus. This paper explores how these adjustments can be influenced by economic policy during “a period of diminished expectations” (a period of weak GDP growth which is expected to persist for the coming years). Credit financed growth of private investment is unlikely to accelerate as capacity utilization rates are low. Increased spending by the foreign sector, which allows an export oriented growth strategy, could be dampened by simultaneous budget consolidation efforts of all European countries. Savings rates of private households have increased during the crisis. In order to reduce them various alternatives are discussed. Firstly, a credit financed housing bubble This has been practiced by some economies in recent years, but proved to be not sustainable. Secondly, a decline of unemployment rates and consequently of precautionary saving: During periods of low growth of GDP and employment, improvements in the employment elasticity of growth enhancing policy measures and reductions of working time could be effective in this respect. Thirdly, incentives for upper income households to expand investment expenditures and cut back their savings. Fourthly, a redistribution of wealth and income: This strategy leads to a decrease of average savings rates and an increase of consumption rates of private households.
    Keywords: E21 ; E62 ; H30 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; Budget consolidation ; fiscal balances ; savings rates of private households ; Haushaltsdefizit ; Konjunktur ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Sparen ; Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht ; Leistungsbilanz ; Österreich
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Financialization is a process whereby financial markets, financial institutions and financial elites gain greater influence over economic policy and economic outcomes. Financialization transforms the functioning of economic system at both the macro and micro levels. Its principal impacts are to (1) elevate the significance of the financial sector relative to the real sector; (2) transfer income from the real sector to he financial sector; and (3) increase income inequality and contribute to wage stagnation. Additionally, there are reasons to believe that financialization may render the economy prone to risk of debt-deflation and prolonged recession. Financialization operates through three different conduits: changes in the structure and operation of financial markets; changes in the behavior of non-financial corporations, and changes in economic policy. Countering financialization calls for a multi-faceted agenda that (1) restores policy control over financial markets, (2) challenges the neo-liberal economic policy paradigm encouraged by financialization, (3) makes corporations responsive to interests of stakeholders other than just financial markets, and (4) reforms the political process so as to diminish the influence of corporations and wealthy elites.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; E63 ; E64 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Financialization ; neo-liberal policy ; deregulation ; debt ; financial fragility. ; Finanzkapitalismus ; Finanzsektor ; Finanzmarkt ; Schulden ; Makroökonomischer Einfluss ; Funktionelle Einkommensverteilung ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The New Consensus approach in macroeconomics is criticised for its exclusive but unwarranted reliance on stabilising monetary policies, for its ill-designed approach to the role of wages and wage policies, and for its complete neglect of fiscal policies. From a Post-Keynesian perspective, it is argued that fiscal policies play an important role for macroeconomic development, albeit the whole macroeconomic policy-mix of monetary, fiscal and wage policies as well as open economy conditions should be considered. Based on this view macroeconomic performance and macroeconomic policies in France, Germany, Sweden and the UK between 1996 and 2005 are analysed, with a special focus on the role of fiscal policies. It is shown that the fiscal policy stance is important for the explanation of different developments in these economies. However, fiscal policies are not the whole story, monetary policies, wage policies and open economy conditions matter as well.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; E63 ; E64 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal policy ; macroeconomic policies ; New Consensus ; Post-Keynesian macroeconomics ; France ; Germany ; UK ; Sweden
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 26
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: In the present paper we question the mainstream diagnosis of Germany's post-2000 stagnation as well as the prescribed remedies. We show that the ‘institutional sclerosis' view of Germany's stagnation is unfounded and that therefore the political measures proposed and actually taken are misguided. Instead, we claim that macroeconomic mismanagement explains the German absolute and relative stagnation compared with the Euro area as a whole and with the USA. If the problem of macroeconomic mismanagement is not addressed and solved, irrespective of occasional cyclical upswings, we predict a continuing stagnation tendency for the German economy. And we argue that this is not only a German problem, but a matter of European concern, because the macroeconomic policies which have caused the German constellation will have major negative feedback effects on the other Euro area countries in the near future.
    Keywords: E58 ; E61 ; E62 ; E63 ; E64 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Macroeconomic policy ; structural reforms ; unemployment ; growth ; inflation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 27
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Since the start of the European Monetary Union fiscal policy in the Euro area has been dominated by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Quite obviously the SGP has been unsuccessful in fulfilling its goals, fiscal sustainability and supporting economic growth. More and more countries have exceeded the 3 percent of GDP limit for the budget deficit, while at the same time macroeconomic performance has been unsatisfactory. We analyse fiscal policy and its macroeconomic impact for the Euro area as a whole and for selected countries and compare it with US fiscal policy, with a special emphasis on the period 2001-2005. Whereas US fiscal policy has been strongly counter-cyclical, thus stabilising the economy, in the Euro area fiscal policy has been much more restrictive and has had pro-cyclical and therefore destabilising effects for many countries. However, one cannot put all the blame on fiscal policy. The ECB's restrictive monetary policy and divergent and destabilising wage developments across the Euro area are at least as important as fiscal policy in the explanation of the Euro area's weak economic performance. As a possible solution for the future, we suggest to replace the SGP by expenditure paths as coordination tool, and we discuss an important modification of the concept. Such expenditure paths could co-ordinate fiscal policies across the Euro area in a counter-cyclical way and at the same time ensure fiscal sustainability. Unfortunately, as long as monetary and wage policies remain un-coordinated and destabilising, any improvements in fiscal policy will not be very effective in enhancing economic performance.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; E63 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal policy ; consolidation strategies ; macroeconomic policy mix ; euro area
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: The Broad Economic Policy Guidelines contain the answers of the European Commission and the governments of the EU-member countries to the European growth and employment problems. These guidelines have been the major EU-economic policy concept for around ten years now. They can be seen as a synthesis of the economic policy regime dominating the EU since the early to mid 1990s. However, this concept has not been able to generate sustained growth and low unemployment in the EU as a whole. Examining the guidelines we show the weaknesses of the underlying economic policy model and outline an alternative concept which promises more growth and employment for Europe in the long run.
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; E63 ; E64 ; ddc:330 ; Broad economic policy guidelines ; European Union ; monetary policy ; wage policy ; fiscal policy ; policy co-ordination
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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