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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-05-02
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-04-08
    Description: In this study, we present results obtained from modelling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Boundary conditions, model forcing, and modelling methodology of the two phases of PlioMIP, tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2,differ considerably in palaeogeography, in particular with regards to the state of ocean gateways, ice-masks, vegetation and topography. Further differences between model setups as suggested for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 consider updates to the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), that is specified as 405 and 400 parts per million by volume (ppmv) for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, respectively, as well as minor differences in the concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) due to changes in the protocol of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) from phase 3 to phase 4. With this manuscript, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2019). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen Mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with the COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model-model and model-data-comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP’s core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, and present further simulations where we test model sensitivity to variations in palaeogeography, orbit and concentration of CO2. Firstly,we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the limitations recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from of our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.08 K colder in PlioMIP2, if compared to PlioMIP1. On one hand, high-latitude warming,which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 andPlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated palaeogeography. The PlioMIP2 Mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2accountsfor 1.1 K of warming in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi-ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Furthermore, employing different orbital forcings in simulating the Mid-Pliocene lead to pronounced annual and seasonal variations, which is not accounted for by marine and terrestrial reconstruction of the time-slice.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-05-13
    Description: The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudo-proxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the frame- work of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ18O–temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ18O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east–west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-05-13
    Description: A new 21.3m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78◦ S; 139.56◦ E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adélie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ‰ ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ‰±2.2 ‰ for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope–temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135–145◦ E) over the period 1998–2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess–δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-06-03
    Description: Ice-wedge polygons are common features of lowland tundra in the continuous permafrost zone and prone to rapid degradation through melting of ground ice. There are many interrelated processes involved in ice-wedge thermokarst and it is a major challenge to quantify their influence on the stability of the permafrost underlying the landscape. In this study we used a numerical modelling approach to investigate the degradation of ice wedges with a focus on the influence of hydrological conditions. Our study area was Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia, for which we had in situ measurements to evaluate the model. The tailored version of the CryoGrid 3 land surface model was capable of simulating the changing microtopography of polygonal tundra and also regarded lateral fluxes of heat, water, and snow. We demonstrated that the approach is capable of simulating ice-wedge degradation and the associated transition from a low-centred to a high-centred polygonal microtopography. The model simulations showed ice-wedge degradation under recent climatic conditions of the study area, irrespective of hydrological conditions. However, we found that wetter conditions lead to an earlier onset of degradation and cause more rapid ground subsidence. We set our findings in correspondence to observed types of ice-wedge polygons in the study area and hypothesized on remaining discrepancies between modelled and observed ice-wedge thermokarst activity. Our quantitative approach provides a valuable complement to previous, more qualitative and conceptual, descriptions of the possible pathways of ice-wedge polygon evolution. We concluded that our study is a blueprint for investigating thermokarst landforms and marks a step forward in understanding the complex interrelationships between various processes shaping ice-rich permafrost landscapes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-07-09
    Description: Increasing industrial metal demands due to rapid technological developments may drive the prospection and exploitation of deep-sea mineral resources such as polymetallic nodules. To date, the potential environmental consequences of mining operations in the remote deep sea are poorly known. Experimental studies are scarce, especially with regard to the effect of sediment and nodule debris depositions as a consequence of seabed mining. To elucidate the potential effects of the deposition of crushed polymetallic nodule particles on abyssal meiobenthos communities, a short (11 d) in situ experiment at the seafloor of the Peru Basin in the south-east Pacific Ocean was conducted in 2015. We covered abyssal, soft sediment with approx. 2 cm of crushed nodule particles and sampled the sediment after 11 d of incubation at 4200 m water depth. Short-term ecological effects on the meiobenthos community were studied including changes in their composition and vertical distribution in the sediment as well as nematode genus composition. Additionally, copper burden in a few similar-sized but randomly selected nematodes was measured by means of micro X-ray fluorescence (µXRF). At the end of the experiment, 46±1 % of the total meiobenthos occurred in the added crushed nodule layer, while abundances decreased in the underlying 2 cm compared to the same depth interval in undisturbed sediments. Densities and community composition in the deeper 2–5 cm layers remained similar in covered and uncovered sediments. The migratory response into the added nodule material was particularly seen in polychaetes (73±14 %, relative abundance across all depth layers) copepods (71±6 %), nauplii (61±9 %) and nematodes (43±1 %). While the dominant nematode genera in the added nodule material did not differ from those in underlying layers or the undisturbed sediments, feeding type proportions in this layer were altered, with a 9 % decrease of non-selective deposit feeders and an 8 % increase in epistrate feeders. Nematode tissue copper burden did not show elevated copper toxicity resulting from burial with crushed nodule particles. Our results indicate that burial with a 2 cm layer of crushed nodule particles induces changes in the vertical structure of meiobenthos inside the sediment and an alteration of nematode feeding type proportions within a short time frame of 11 d, while nematode tissue copper burden remains unchanged. These findings considerably contribute to the understanding of the short-term responses of meiobenthos to physical disturbances in the deep sea.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-07-22
    Description: The atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by about 20ppm from 6000BCE to the pre-industrial period (1850CE). Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain mechanisms of this CO2 growth based on either ocean or land carbon sources. Here, we apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of climate and carbon cycle dynamics during this period. In the first simulation, atmospheric CO2 is prescribed following ice-core CO2 data. In response to the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration, land carbon storage increases until 2000BCE, stagnates afterwards, and decreases from 1CE, while the ocean continuously takes CO2 out of the atmosphere after 4000BCE. This leads to a missing source of 166Pg of carbon in the ocean-land-atmosphere system by the end of the simulation. In the second experiment, we applied a CO2 nudging technique using surface alkalinity forcing to follow the reconstructed CO2 concentration while keeping the carbon cycle interactive. In that case the ocean is a source of CO2 from 6000 to 2000BCE due to a decrease in the surface ocean alkalinity. In the prescribed CO2 simulation, surface alkalinity declines as well. However, it is not sufficient to turn the ocean into a CO2 source. The carbonate ion concentration in the deep Atlantic decreases in both the prescribed and the interactive CO2 simulations, while the magnitude of the decrease in the prescribed CO2 experiment is underestimated in comparison with available proxies. As the land serves as a carbon sink until 2000BCE due to natural carbon cycle processes in both experiments, the missing source of carbon for land and atmosphere can only be attributed to the ocean. Within our model framework, an additional mechanism, such as surface alkalinity decrease, for example due to unaccounted for carbonate accumulation processes on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Consequently, our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-09-30
    Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface to bottom ocean biogeochemical data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of water samples. This update of GLODAPv2, v2.2019, adds data from 116 cruises to the previous version, extending its coverage in time from 2013 to 2017, while also adding some data from prior years. GLODAPv2.2019 includes measurements from more than 1.1 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 840 cruises. The data for the 12 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and CCl4) have undergone extensive quality control, especially systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but updated to WOCE exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. These adjustments were derived by comparing the data from the 116 new cruises with the data from the 724 quality-controlled cruises of the GLODAPv2 data product. They correct for errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices, taking into account any known or likely time trends or variations. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 µmol kg−1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 µmol kg−1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02 in pH, and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The compilation also includes data for several other variables, such as isotopic tracers. These were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments. The original data, their documentation and DOI codes are available in the Ocean Carbon Data System of NOAA NCEI (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/GLODAPv2_2019/, last access: 17 September 2019). This site also provides access to the merged data product, which is provided as a single global file and as four regional ones – the Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans – under https://doi.org/10.25921/xnme-wr20 (Olsen et al., 2019). The product files also include significant ancillary and approximated data. These were obtained by interpolation of, or calculation from, measured data. This paper documents the GLODAPv2.2019 methods and provides a broad overview of the secondary quality control procedures and results.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Description: Estimating the contribution of marine ice sheets to sea-level rise is complicated by ice grounded below sea level that is replaced by ocean water when melted. The common approach is to only consider the ice volume above flotation, defined as the volume of ice to be removed from an ice column to become afloat. With isostatic adjustment of the bedrock and external sea-level forcing, this approach breaks down, because ice volume above flotation can be modified without actual changes of the sea-level contribution. We discuss a consistent and generalised approach for estimating the sea-level contribution from marine ice sheets.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is a potentially significant source of revenue loss for windfarm operators. Thus, it is important to advance understanding of the underlying causes, to generate geospatial estimates of erosion potential to provide guidance in pre-deployment planning and ultimately to advance methods to mitigate this effect and extend blade lifetimes. This study focusses on the second issue and presents a novel approach to characterizing the erosion potential across the contiguous USA based solely on publicly available data products from the National Weather Service dual-polarization RADAR. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments. Results from these locations demonstrate the high spatial variability in precipitation-induced erosion potential, illustrate the importance of low probability high impact events to cumulative annual total kinetic energy transfer and emphasize the importance of hail as a damage vector.
    Electronic ISSN: 2366-7621
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: The Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns of climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up hydrological (water resources management, floods, droughts, etc.), and ecohydrological applications such as Mediterranean agriculture like olive cultivation and other environmental practices. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET both in line with river flow regimes, a Principal Component Analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-Means classification to distribute them into classes and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to classes kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1-km high resolution gridded data for the 1970–2000 baseline period and 144 stations data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and dry class in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class in the North, showing up the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN historical and projected data at 12-km resolution simulated under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070–2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline high resolution classification. Both RCP scenarios showed a 7 % to 9 % increase of the average seasonality index Is and 3 % to 20 % increase of the average aridity index IArid for the least seasonal classes. These classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using same or other climatic indices specific for each region highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological response.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: The PermaSense project is an ongoing interdisciplinary effort between geo-science and engineering disciplines and started in 2006 with the goals of realizing observations that previously have not been possible. Specifically, the aims are to obtain measurements in unprecedented quantity and quality based on technological advances. This paper describes a unique 〉10-year data record obtained from in situ measurements in steep bedrock permafrost in an Alpine environment on the Matterhorn Hörnligrat, Zermatt, Switzerland, at 3500 ma.s.l. Through the utilization of state-of-the-art wireless sensor technology it was possible to obtain more data of higher quality, make these data available in near real time and tightly monitor and control the running experiments. This data set (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.897640, Weber et al., 2019a) constitutes the longest, densest and most diverse data record in the history of mountain permafrost research worldwide with 17 different sensor types used at 29 distinct sensor locations consisting of over 114.5 million data points captured over a period of 10 or more years. By documenting and sharing these data in this form we contribute to making our past research reproducible and facilitate future research based on these data, e.g., in the areas of analysis methodology, comparative studies, assessment of change in the environment, natural hazard warning and the development of process models. Finally, the cross-validation of four different data types clearly indicates the dominance of thawing-related kinematics.
    Print ISSN: 1866-3508
    Electronic ISSN: 1866-3516
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: Within the last two solar cycles (from 2001 to 2018), the location of the outer radiation belt (ORB) was determined using NOAA/Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) observations of energetic electrons with energies above 30 keV. It was found that the ORB was shifted a little (∼1∘) in the European and North American sectors, while in the Siberian sector the ORB was displaced equatorward by more than 3∘. The displacements corresponded qualitatively to the change in the geomagnetic field predicted by the IGRF-12 model. However, in the Siberian sector, the model has a tendency to underestimate the equatorward shift of the ORB. The shift became prominent after 2012, which might have been related to a geomagnetic “jerk” that occurred in 2012–2013. The displacement of the ORB to lower latitudes in the Siberian sector can contribute to an increase in the occurrence rate of midlatitude auroras observed in the Eastern Hemisphere.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Description: Volcanic eruptions comprise one of the most important airborne hazards for aviation. Although significant events are rare, they have a very high impact. The current state of tools and abilities to mitigate aviation hazards associated with an assumed volcanic cloud was tested within an international demonstration exercise. Experts in the field assembled at the Schwarzenberg barracks in Salzburg, Austria, in order to simulate the sequence of procedures for the volcanic case scenario of an artificial eruption of Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings. Volcanic emission concentration charts were generated applying modern ensemble techniques. The exercise products provided an important basis for decision making for aviation traffic management during a volcanic eruption crisis. By integrating the available wealth of data, observations and modelling results directly into a widely used flight planning software, it was demonstrated that route optimization measures could be implemented effectively. With timely and rather precise warnings available, the new tools and processes tested during the exercise demonstrated vividly that a vast majority of flights could be conducted despite a volcanic plume widely dispersed within a high-traffic airspace over Europe. The resulting number of flight cancellations was minimal.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Description: Using new high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ~ 80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea-level rise largely owing to its steep topography, the maps presented here show that on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105,000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200 year storm-surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137,000, and 1340 km with projected sea-level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root mean square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea-level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaption work in Norway.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Description: In this study, we developed an enhanced approach for large-scale flood damage and risk assessments that uses characteristics of buildings and the built environment as object-based information to represent exposure and vulnerability to flooding. Most current large-scale assessments use an aggregated land-use category to represent the exposure, treating all exposed elements the same. For large areas where previously only coarse information existed such as in Africa, more detailed exposure data are becoming available. For our approach, a direct relation between the construction type and building material of the exposed elements is used to develop vulnerability curves. We further present a method to differentiate flood risk in urban and rural areas based on characteristics of the built environment. We applied the model to Ethiopia and found that rural flood risk accounts for about 22 % of simulated damage; rural damage is generally neglected in the typical land-use-based damage models, particularly at this scale. Our approach is particularly interesting for studies in areas where there is a large variation in construction types in the building stock, such as developing countries.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Description: Across the arid regions of water-stressed countries of Asia, groundwater production for irrigated agriculture has led to water level declines that continue to worsen. For India, China, Pakistan, Iran and others, it is unrealistic to expect groundwater sustainability in a technical sense to emerge. With business as usual, groundwater-related problems receive insufficient attention, a situation referred to as an accelerating and invisible groundwater crisis (Biswas et al., 2017). Another obstacle to sustainability comes from trying to manage something you do not understand. With sustainable management, there are significant burdens in needed technical and socioeconomic knowhow, in collecting necessary data, and in implementing advanced technologies. A pragmatic research agenda for groundwater sustainability should recognize that a common threat to long-term sustainability could occur not just from over-pumping but widespread groundwater contamination. If groundwater sustainability is truly unachievable, then research is needed in facilitating adaption to the worst outcomes (Siegel et al., 2019). In hoping for the best outcomes, it is prudent to plan for the worst.
    Print ISSN: 1812-2108
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-2116
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2019-08-12
    Description: As an essential component of drought risk, crop-drought vulnerability refers to the degree of the adverse response of a crop to a drought event. Different drought intensities and environments can cause significant differences in crop yield losses. Therefore, quantifying the drought vulnerability and then identifying its spatial distribution pattern will contribute to understanding vulnerability and the development of risk-reduction strategies. We select the European winter wheat growing area as the study area and a 0.5° × 0.5° grid as the basic assessment unit. Winter wheat drought vulnerability curves are established based on the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator model simulation. Their loss transmutation and loss extent characteristics are quantitatively analyzed by the key points and cumulative loss rate, respectively, and are then synthetically identified VIA K-means clustering. The results show the following. (1) The regional yield loss rate starts to rapidly increase from 0.13 when the drought index reaches 0.18 and then converts to a relatively stable stage with the value of 0.74 when the drought index reaches 0.66. (2) The stage transitions of the vulnerability curve lag in the southern mountain area, indicating a stronger tolerance to drought in the system, in contrast to the Pod Plain. (3) According to the loss characteristics during the initial, development and attenuation stages, the vulnerability curves can be divided into five clusters, namely, Low-Low-Low, Low-Low-Medium, Medium-Medium-Medium, High-High-High and Low-Medium-High loss types, corresponding to the spatial distribution from low latitude to high latitude and from mountain to plain. It is recommended to improve the integrated mitigation capability in the Medium-Medium-Medium-loss and High-High-High -loss areas and to develop the ability to mitigate droughts in the 0.3–0.6 intensity range, as non-engineering measures for the droughts greater than 0.6 intensity in low-medium-high areas are needed.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2019-08-09
    Description: In this paper, the potential of Dynamic Induction Control (DIC), which has shown promising results in recent simulation studies, is further investigated. When this control strategy is implemented, a turbine varies its induction factor dynamically over time. In this paper, only periodic variation, where the input is a sinusoid, are studied. A proof of concept for this periodic DIC approach will be given by execution of scaled wind tunnel experiments, showing for the first time that this approach can yield power gains in real-world wind farms. Furthermore, the effects on the Damage Equivalent Loads (DEL) of the turbine are evaluated in a simulation environment. These indicate that the increase in DEL on the excited turbine is limited.
    Electronic ISSN: 2366-7621
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2019-08-09
    Description: Convective transport plays a key role in aerosol enhancement in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the Asian monsoon region where low-level convective instability persists throughout the year. We use the state-of-the-art ECHAM6–HAMMOZ global chemistry–climate model to investigate the seasonal transport of anthropogenic Asian sulfate aerosols and their impact on the UTLS. Sensitivity simulations for SO2 emission perturbation over India (48 % increase) and China (70 % decrease) are performed based on the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite-observed trend, rising over India by ∼4.8 % per year and decreasing over China by ∼7.0 % per year during 2006–2017. The enhanced Indian emissions result in an increase in aerosol optical depth (AOD) loading in the UTLS by 0.61 to 4.17 % over India. These aerosols are transported to the Arctic during all seasons by the lower branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation enhancing AOD by 0.017 % to 4.8 %. Interestingly, a reduction in SO2 emission over China inhibits the transport of Indian sulfate aerosols to the Arctic in summer-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons due to subsidence over northern India. The region of sulfate aerosol enhancement shows significant warming in the UTLS over northern India, south China (0.2±0.15 to 0.8±0.72 K) and the Arctic (∼1±0.62 to 1.6±1.07 K). The estimated seasonal mean direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) induced by the increase in Indian SO2 emission is −0.2 to −1.5 W m−2 over northern India. The Chinese SO2 emission reduction leads to a positive radiative forcing of ∼0.6 to 6 W m−2 over China. The decrease in vertical velocity and the associated enhanced stability of the upper troposphere in response to increased Indian SO2 emissions will likely decrease rainfall over India.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: In this study, we analyze the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor data in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere (UTLMS) (from 215 to 6 hPa) for the period from August 2004 to September 2017 using time-lag regression analysis and composite analysis to explore the interannual variations of tropical UTLMS water vapor and their connections to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis shows that the interannual tropical UTLMS water vapor anomalies are strongly related to ENSO and QBO which together can explain more than half (∼ 50 %–60 %) but not all variance of the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. We find that ENSO's impact is strong in the upper troposphere (∼ 215–∼ 120 hPa) and near the tropopause (∼ 110–∼ 90 hPa), with a ∼ 3-month lag but weak in the lower and middle stratosphere (∼ 80 to ∼ 6 hPa). In contrast, QBO's role is large in the lower and middle stratosphere, with an upward-propagating signal starting at the tropopause (100 hPa) with a ∼ 2-month lag, peaking in the middle stratosphere near 15 hPa with a ∼ 21-month lag. The phase lag is based on the 50 hPa QBO index used by many previous studies. This observational evidence supports that the QBO's impact on the tropical stratospheric water vapor is from its modulation on the tropical tropopause temperature and then transported upward with the tape recorder as suggested by many previous studies. In the upper troposphere, ENSO is more important than QBO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies that are positive during the warm ENSO phases but negative during the cold ENSO phases. Near the tropopause, both ENSO and QBO are important for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. Warm ENSO phase and westerly QBO phase tend to cause positive water vapor anomalies, while cold ENSO phase and easterly QBO phase tend to cause negative water vapor anomalies. As a result, the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies near the tropopause are different depending on different ENSO and QBO phase combinations. In the lower and middle stratosphere, QBO is more important than ENSO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. For the westerly QBO phases, interannual tropical water vapor anomalies are positive near the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere but negative in the middle stratosphere and positive again above. Vice versa for the easterly QBO phases.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: The initialization of soil organic matter (SOM) turnover models has been a challenge for decades. Instead of using laborious and error prone size-density fractionation SOM pool partitioning, we propose the inexpensive, rapid, and non destructive Diffuse reflectance mid infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) technique on bulk soil samples to gain information on SOM pool partitioning from the spectra. Specifically, the DRIFTS stability index, defined as the ratio of aliphatic C-H (2930 cm−1) to aromatic C=C (1620 cm−1) stretching vibrations, was used to divide SOM into fast and slow cycling pools in the soil organic module of the DAISY model. Long-term bare fallow plots from Bad Lauchstädt (Chernozem, 25 years) and the Ultuna frame trial in Sweden (Cambisol, 50 years) were combined with bare fallow plots of 7 years duration in the Kraichgau and Swabian Jura region in Southwest Germany (Luvisols). All fields had been in agricultural use for centuries before fallow establishment, so classical theory would suggest an initial steady state of SOM, which was hence used to compare the performance of DAISY initializations against the newly established DRIFTS stability index. The test was done using two different published parameter sets (2.7 × 10−6 d−1, 1.4 × 10−4 d−1, 0.1 compared to 4.3 × 10−5 d−1, 1.4 × 10−4 d−1, 0.3 for the turnover rates of slow pool, fast pool and humification efficiency, respectively). The DRIFTS initialization of SOM pools significantly reduced model errors of poor performing model runs assuming steady state, irrespective of the turnover rates used, but the faster turnover parameter set fit better to all sites except Bad Lauchstädt. This suggests that soils under long-term agricultural use were not necessarily at steady state. A Bayesian calibration was applied in a next step to identify the best-fitting turnover rates for the DRIFTS stability index in DAISY, both for each site individually and for a combination of all sites. The two approaches which significantly reduced parameter uncertainty and equifinality were: (1) the addition of the physico-chemically based DRIFTS stability index, and (2) combining several sites into one Bayesian calibration, as derived turnover rates can be strongly site specific. The combination of all four sites showed that SOM is likely lost at relatively fast turnover rates with the 95 % credibility intervals of the slow SOM pools half life ranging from 278 to 1095 years, with 426 years as a value of highest probability density. The credibility intervals of this study were consistent with several recently published Bayesian calibrations of similar SOM models, all turnover rates were considerably faster than earlier models suggested. It is therefore likely that published turnover rates understimate the potential loss of SOM.
    Print ISSN: 1810-6277
    Electronic ISSN: 1810-6285
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2019-08-08
    Description: We present a new capability of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS that enables flexible adjoint code generation via source transformation using the open-source algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool OpenAD. The adjoint code enables efficient calculation of sensitivities of a scalar-valued objective function or quantity of interest (QoI) to a range of important, often spatially varying model input variables, including initial and boundary conditions, as well as model parameters. Compared to earlier work on adjoint code generation of SICOPOLIS, our work is based on several important advances: (i) it is embedded within the up-to-date trunk of the SICOPOLIS repository – accounting for one and a half decades of code development and improvements – and is readily available to the wider community; (ii) the AD tool used, OpenAD, is an open-source tool; (iii) the adjoint code developed is applicable to both Greenland and Antarctica, including grounded ice as well as floating ice shelves, and with an extended choice of thermodynamical representations. A number of code refactorization steps were required. They are discussed in detail in an Appendix as they hold lessons for application of AD to legacy codes at large. As an example application, we examine the sensitivity of the total Antarctic Ice Sheet volume to changes in initial ice thickness, summer precipitation, and basal and surface temperatures across the ice sheet. Simulations of Antarctica with floating ice shelves show that over 100 years of simulation the sensitivity of total ice sheet volume to the initial ice thickness and precipitation is almost uniformly positive, while the sensitivities to surface and basal temperature are almost uniformly negative. Sensitivity to summer precipitation is largest on floating ice shelves from Queen Maud to Queen Mary Land. The largest sensitivity to initial ice thickness is at outlet glaciers around Antarctica. Comparison between total ice sheet volume sensitivities to surface and basal temperature shows that surface temperature sensitivities are higher broadly across the floating ice shelves, while basal temperature sensitivities are highest at the grounding lines of floating ice shelves and outlet glaciers. A uniformly perturbed region of East Antarctica reveals that, among the four control variables tested here, total ice sheet volume is most sensitive to variations in summer precipitation as formulated in SICOPOLIS. Comparison between adjoint- and finite-difference-derived sensitivities shows good agreement, lending confidence that the AD tool is producing correct adjoint code. The new modeling infrastructure is freely available at www.sicopolis.net under the development trunk.
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Stably stratified atmospheric boundary layers are often characterized by a veering wind profile, in which the wind direction changes clockwise with height in the Northern Hemisphere. Wind-turbine wakes respond to this veer in the incoming wind by stretching from a circular shape into an ellipsoid. We investigate the relationship between this stretching and the direction of the turbine rotation by means of large-eddy simulations. Clockwise rotating, counterclockwise rotating, and non-rotating actuator disc turbines are embedded in wind fields with no wind veer or in wind fields with an Ekman spiral representative of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in six combinations of rotor rotation and inflow wind condition. The impact of the Coriolis force via the Ekman spiral depends on the rotational direction of the actuator disc, whereas the direction of the disc rotation exerts little impact if no veer is present. The differences result from the interaction of the actuator rotation with the Ekman spiral and are present in the zonal, the meridional, and the vertical wind components of the wake. The interaction of the Ekman spiral with both rotational directions lead to two different flow fields characterizing the wake. In the case of a counterclockwise rotating actuator disc, the rotational direction of the wake persists in the whole wake. In case of a clockwise rotating actuator, however, the rotational direction is different in the near wake in comparison to the far wake. The physical mechanism responsible for this difference is explained by a simple linear superposition of the inflow wind field, characterized by vertical wind shear and wind veer, with a wind-turbine model including a Rankine vortex, representing the rotational effects imposed on the flow by the rotating blades.
    Electronic ISSN: 2366-7621
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Here we examine the landscape of New Zealand's Marlborough Fault System, where the Australian and Pacific plates obliquely collide, in order to consider landscape evolution and the controls on fluvial patterns at complicated plate tectonic boundaries. Based on topographic patterns, we divide the study area into two geomorphic domains, the Kaikōura and Inland Marlborough regions. We present maps of drainage anomalies and channel steepness, as well as an analysis of the plan view orientations of rivers and faults, and find abundant evidence of structurally-controlled drainage and a history of capture and rearrangement. Channel steepness is highest in a zone centered on the Kaikōura domain, including within the low-elevation valleys of main stem rivers and at tributaries near the coast. This pattern is consistent with an increase in rock uplift rate toward a subduction front that is locked on its southern end. Based on these results and a wealth of previous geologic studies, we propose two broad stages of landscape evolution over the last 25 million years of orogenesis. In the Kaikōura domain, Miocene folding above blind thrust or reverse faults generated prominent mountain peaks and formed major transverse rivers early in the plate collision history. A transition to Pliocene dextral strike-slip faulting and widespread uplift led to cycles of river channel offset, deflection and capture of tributaries draining across active faults, and headward erosion and captures by major transverse rivers within the Inland Marlborough domain. Despite clear evidence of recent rearrangement of the Inland Marlborough drainage network, rivers in this domain still flow parallel to the older faults, rather than along orthogonal traces of younger, active faults. Continued flow in the established drainage pattern may indicate that younger faults are not yet mature enough to generate the damage and weakening needed to reorient rivers. We conclude that faulting, uplift, river capture and drainage network entrenchment all dictate drainage patterns and that each factor should be considered when assessing tectonic strain from landscapes, particularly at long-lived and complex tectonic boundaries.
    Electronic ISSN: 2196-6338
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Our aim with this paper was the analysis of the influence of offshore cluster wakes on the power of a far distant wind farm. We measured cluster wakes with long range Doppler light detection and ranging (lidar) and satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in different atmospheric stabilities and analysed their impact on the 400 MW offshore wind farm "Global Tech I" in the German North Sea using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) power data. Our results showed clear wind speed deficits that can be related to the wakes of wind farm clusters up to 55 km upstream in stable and weakly unstable stratified boundary layers resulting in a clear reduction in power production. We discussed the influence of cluster wakes on the power production of a far distant wind farm, cluster wake characteristics and methods for cluster wake monitoring. In conclusion, we proved the existence of wake shadowing effects with resulting power losses up to 55 km downstream and encouraged further investigations on far reaching wake shadowing effects for optimized areal planning and reduced uncertainties in offshore wind power resource assessment.
    Electronic ISSN: 2366-7621
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Water-soluble brown carbon in the aqueous core of aerosol may play a role in the photochemical aging of organic film on the aerosol surface. To better understand the reactivity and photochemical aging processes of organic coating on the aqueous aerosol surface, we have simulated the photosensitized reaction of organic films made of several long-chain fatty acids in a Langmuir trough in the presence or absence of irradiation. Several chemicals (imidazole-2-carboxaldehyde and humic acid), PM2.5 samples collected from the field, and secondary organic aerosol samples generated from a simulation chamber were used as photosensitizers to be involved in the photochemistry of the organic films. Stearic acid, elaidic acid, oleic acid, and two different phospholipids with the same carbon chain length and different degrees of saturation, i.e. 1,2-distearoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DSPC) and 1,2-dioleoylsn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DOPC), were chosen as the common organic film-forming species in this analysis. The double bond (trans and cis) in unsaturated organic compounds has an effect on the surface area of the organic monolayer. The oleic acid (OA) monolayer possessing a cis double bond in an alkyl chain is more expanded than elaidic acid (EA) monolayers on artificial seawater that contain a photosensitizer. Monitoring the change in the relative area of DOPC monolayers has shown that DOPC does not react with photosensitizers under dark conditions. Instead, the photochemical reaction initiated by the excited photosensitizer and molecular oxygen can generate new unsaturated products in the DOPC monolayers, accompanied by an increase in the molecular area. The DSPC monolayers did not yield any photochemical oxidized products under the same conditions. The spectra measured with polarization modulation-infrared reflection–absorption spectroscopy (PM-IRRAS) were also consistent with the results of a surface pressure–area isotherm. Here, a reaction mechanism explaining these observations is presented and discussed. The results of PM2.5 and SOA samples will contribute to our understanding of the processing of organic aerosol aging that alters the aerosol composition.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: The lowest region of the troposphere is a turbulent layer known as the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and characterized by high daily variability due to the influence of surface forcings. This is the reason why detecting systems with high spatial and temporal resolution, such as lidar, have been widely applied for researching this region. In this paper, we present a comparative analysis on the use of lidar-backscattered signals at three wavelengths (355, 532 and 1064 nm) to study the ABL by investigating the high-order moments, which give us information about the ABL height (derived by the variance method), aerosol layer movement (skewness) and mixing conditions (kurtosis) at several heights. Previous studies have shown that the 1064 nm wavelength, due to the predominance of particle signature in the total backscattered atmospheric signal and practically null presence of molecular signal (which can represent noise in high-order moments), provides an appropriate description of the turbulence field, and thus in this study it was considered a reference. We analyze two case studies that show us that the backscattered signal at 355 nm, even after applying some corrections, has a limited applicability for turbulence studies using the proposed methodology due to the strong contribution of the molecular signature to the total backscatter signal. This increases the noise associated with the high-order profiles and, consequently, generates misinformation. On the other hand, the information on the turbulence field derived from the backscattered signal at 532 nm is similar to that obtained at 1064 nm due to the appropriate attenuation of the noise, generated by molecular component of backscattered signal by the application of the corrections proposed.
    Print ISSN: 1867-1381
    Electronic ISSN: 1867-8548
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2019-08-06
    Description: Differences between paleoclimatic reconstructions are caused by two main factors, the method and the input data. While many studies compare methods, we will focus in this study on the consequences of the input data choice in a state-of-the-art paleo data assimilation approach. We evaluate reconstruction quality based on three collections of tree-ring records: (1) 54 of the best temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies chosen by experts; (2) 415 temperature sensitive tree-ring records chosen less strictly by regional working groups and statistical screening; (3) 2287 tree-ring series that are not screened for climate sensitivity. The three data sets cover the range from small sample size, small spatial coverage and strict screening for temperature sensitivity to large sample size and spatial coverage but no screening. Additionally, we explore a combination of these data sets plus screening methods to improve the reconstruction quality. Neither a large, unscreened collection of proxy data nor the small expert selection leads to the best possible climate field reconstruction. A large collection of unscreened data leads to a poor reconstruction skill. The few best temperature proxies allow for a skillful high latitude temperature reconstruction but fail to provide improved reconstructions for other regions and other variables. We achieve the best reconstruction skill across all variables and regions by combing all available input data but rejecting records with small, insignificant information and removing duplicate records. In case of assimilating tree ring proxies, it appeared to be important to use a tree-ring proxy system model that includes both major growth limitations, temperature and moisture.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9359
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2019-08-06
    Description: We investigate the degree of hydraulic interconnection between the different (regional to local) groundwater compartments with respect to the choice of boundary conditions and their impact onto the groundwater safety beneath the urban centre of Berlin, capital city of Germany. To this end, we carry out a systematic study based on 3-D hydrothermal models differing in terms of imposed parametric set-ups of the hydrogeology, as well as different surface forcing with respect to their impact on fresh groundwater production. The study area is part of the Northeast German Basin and consists of a thick sequence (up to 5 km) of differently consolidated sedimentary deposits. This sedimentary succession features a sequence of alternating aquifers (reservoirs) and aquitards which are connected to different degrees, each one depicting a specific composition of its mineralised pore water. The uppermost aquifer system (made up mainly of poorly consolidated siliciclastic rocks) acts as the main freshwater reservoir used for groundwater production by the municipal water supplier. This compartment is incompletely sealed from the brackish to saline aquifers extending at greater depths by a regional clay-enriched aquitard, the Oligocene Rupelian Clay. The latter shows a heterogeneous thickness distribution due to erosion during the latest glacial periods resulting in local discontinuities. This aspect opens to the potential risk of contamination of the drinking water reservoir from mixing with the saline groundwater upconing, locally enhanced by shallow pumping activities. Based on our results and their correlation with available isotopic and chemical analysis of water samples, we demonstrate how hydraulic connection between the different compartments is indeed likely to occur thus supporting the possibility of a contaminant rise from the saline aquifers below through either natural or anthropogenic (pumping) forcing.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7340
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7359
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2019-08-08
    Description: During the last decade, carbon cycle data assimilation systems (CCDAS) have focused on improving the simulation of seasonal and mean global carbon fluxes over a few years by simultaneous assimilation of multiple data streams. However, the ability of a CCDAS to predict longer-term trends and variability of the global carbon cycle and the constraint provided by the observations have not yet been assessed. Here, we evaluate two near-decade-long assimilation experiments of the Max Planck Institute – Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System (MPI-CCDAS v1) using spaceborne estimates of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations from the global network of flask measurement sites from either 1982 to 1990 or 1990 to 2000. We contrast these simulations with independent observations from the period 1982–2010, as well as a third MPI-CCDAS assimilation run using data from the full 1982–2010 period, and an atmospheric inversion covering the same data and time. With 30 years of data, MPI-CCDAS is capable of representing land uptake to a sufficient degree to make it compatible with the atmospheric CO2 record. The long-term trend and seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at station level over the period 1982 to 2010 is considerably improved after assimilating only the first decade (1982–1990) of observations. After 15–19 years of prognostic simulation, the simulated CO2 mixing ratio in 2007–2010 diverges by only 2±1.3 ppm from the observations, the atmospheric inversion, and the MPI-CCDAS assimilation run using observations from the full period. The long-term trend, phenological seasonality, and interannual variability (IAV) of FAPAR in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 1 to 2 decades after the assimilation were also improved. Despite imperfections in the representation of the IAV in atmospheric CO2, model–data fusion for a decade of data can already contribute to the prognostic capacity of land carbon cycle models at relevant timescales.
    Print ISSN: 1726-4170
    Electronic ISSN: 1726-4189
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2019-08-08
    Description: Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Satellite-based models have been widely used to simulate vegetation gross primary production (GPP) at site, regional, or global scales in recent years. However, accurately reproducing the interannual variations in GPP remains a major challenge, and the long-term changes in GPP remain highly uncertain. In this study, we generated a long-term global GPP dataset at 0.05° latitude by 0.05° longitude at 8-day interval by revising a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE). In the revised EC-LUE model, we integrated the regulations of several major environmental variables: atmospheric CO2 concentration, radiation components, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These environmental variables showed substantial long-term changes, which could greatly impact the global vegetation productivity. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements at 84 towers from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, covering nine major ecosystem types of the globe, were used to calibrate and validate the model. The revised EC-LUE model could explain 83 % and 68 % of the spatial variations in the annual GPP at 42 calibration and 43 validation sites, respectively. In particular, the revised EC-LUE model could very well reproduce (~ 74 % sites R2 〉 0.5; averaged R2 = 0.65) the interannual variations in GPP at 51 sites with observations greater than 5-years. At global scale, sensitivity analysis indicated that the long-term changes of environmental variables could be well reflected in the global GPP dataset. The CO2 fertilization effect on the global GPP (0.14 ± 0.001 Pg C yr−1) could be offset by the increased VPD (−0.16 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1). The global GPP derived from different datasets exist substantial uncertainty in magnitude and interannual variations. The magnitude of global summed GPP simulated by the revised EC-LUE model was comparable to other global models. While the revised EC-LUE model has a unique superiority in simulating the interannual variations in GPP at both site level and global scales. The revised EC-LUE model provides a reliable long-term estimate of global GPP because of integrating the important environmental variables. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8942336.v1 (Zheng et al., 2019).
    Electronic ISSN: 1866-3591
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2019-08-08
    Description: Growing evidence points to the dynamic role that kerogen is playing on the Earth's surface in controlling atmospheric chemistry over geologic time. Although quantitative constraints on weathering of kerogen remain loose, its changing weathering behavior modulated by the activity of glaciers, suggest that this largest pool of reduced carbon on Earth may have played a key part in atmospheric CO2 variability across recent glacial-interglacial times and beyond.
    Print ISSN: 1810-6277
    Electronic ISSN: 1810-6285
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: In May 2012, we conducted a hydrographic survey over the Carlsberg Ridge in the northwest Indian Ocean. In this paper, we use these station data, in combination with some free-floating Argo profiles, to obtain the sectional temperature and salinity fields, and subsequently, the hydrographic characteristics are comprehensively analyzed. Through the basic T-S diagram, three salty water masses, Arabian Sea High-Salinity Water, Persian Gulf Water, and Red Sea Water, are identified. The sectional data show a clear ventilation structure associated with Arabian Sea High-Salinity Water. The 35.8 psu salty water sinks at 6.9° N and extends southward to 4.4° N at depths around the thermocline, where the thermocline depth is in the range of 100 to 150 m. This salty thermocline extends much further south than the climatology indicates. Furthermore, the temperature and salinity data are used to compute the absolute geostrophic current over the specific section, and the results show meso-scale eddy vertical structure different from some widely used oceanic reanalysis data. We also find a west-propagating disturbance at 6° N, and the related features are described in terms of phase speed, horizontal and vertical structures.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0806
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0822
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Despite the strong societal impact of natural hazards, their documentation remains incomplete, with only a few inventories exceeding the past two centuries. Surprisingly enough, this also applies to Europe, a densely populated territory, and to floods, which along with storms are the most common and damage-causing natural hazard in Europe. In addition, existing inventories have often been compiled by scientists and technicians and are used for risk management in a top-down manner, although the participation of all parties concerned has been recognized as a key factor for disaster reduction. To address this double paradox, the present article presents the regional flood risk observatory ORRION for the Alsatian region, north-eastern France, and its very rich data content. Stemming from two successive interdisciplinary and transnational French–German research projects, ORRION was designed as a participative online platform on which information is shared between individuals, stakeholders, engineers, and scientists. This original approach aims at maximizing knowledge capitalization and contributes to building a common knowledge base for flood risk. ORRION is organized by events including all river floods that have likely arisen from a single synoptic situation. For each event, it documents information sources, date of occurrence, causes, and consequences in terms of damage and affected river basins and municipalities. ORRION has contributed toward renewing our knowledge of flood hazard and risk in the target area. Notably, here, long chronicles of floods are derived for 13 rivers, the Rhine and most of its main Alsatian tributaries and for all Alsatian municipalities, most of them since the end of the 15th century but over more than one millennium for the Rhine. Their main characteristics according to various typologies (seasonality, causes, severity, etc.) are analysed. Major developments over the study period related to sources, land use, and/or climate change are identified. The advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed, and the potential to expand both data exploitation and build common flood risk knowledge is outlined.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: Ecophysiological studies on Antarctic cryptophytes to assess whether climatic changes such as ocean acidification and enhanced stratification affect their growth in Antarctic coastal waters in the future are lacking so far. This is the first study that investigates the combined effects of the increasing availability of pCO2 (400 and 1000 µatm) and irradiance (20, 200 and 500 µmol photons m−2 s−1) on growth, elemental composition and photophysiology of the Antarctic cryptophyte Geminigera cryophila. Under ambient pCO2, this species was characterized by a pronounced sensitivity to increasing irradiance with complete growth inhibition at the highest light intensity. Interestingly, when grown under high pCO2 this negative light effect vanished, and it reached the highest rates of growth and particulate organic carbon production at the highest irradiance compared to the other tested experimental conditions. Our results for G. cryophila reveal beneficial effects of ocean acidification in conjunction with enhanced irradiance on growth and photosynthesis. Hence, cryptophytes such as G. cryophila may be potential winners of climate change, potentially thriving better in more stratified and acidic coastal waters and contributing in higher abundance to future phytoplankton assemblages of coastal Antarctic waters.
    Print ISSN: 1726-4170
    Electronic ISSN: 1726-4189
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2019-08-07
    Description: The High-Intensity Long-Duration and Continuous AE Activities (HILDCAA) intervals are capable of causing a global disturbance in the terrestrial ionosphere. However, the ionospheric storms' behavior due to these geomagnetic activity forms is still not widely understood. In this study, we seek to comprise the HILDCAAs disturbance time effects in the Total Electron Content (TEC) values with respect to the quiet days' pattern analyzing local time and seasonal dependences, and the influences of the solar wind velocity to a sample of ten intervals occurred in 2015 and 2016 years. The main results showed that the hourly distribution of the disturbance TEC may vary substantially between one interval and another. Doing a comparative to geomagnetic storms, while the positive ionospheric storms are more pronounced in the winter, this season presents less geoeffectiveness or almost none to HILDCAA intervals. It was find an equinoctial anomaly, since the equinoxes represent more ionospheric TEC responses during HILDCAA intervals than the solstices. Regarding to the solar wind velocities, although HILDCAA intervals are associated to High Speed Streams, this association does not present a direct relation regards to TEC disturbances in low and equatorial latitudes.
    Electronic ISSN: 2568-6402
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2019-08-06
    Description: Advances in ambient environmental monitoring technologies are enabling concerned communities and citizens to collect data to better understand their local environment and potential exposures. These mobile, low-cost tools make it possible to collect data with increased temporal and spatial resolution, providing data on a large scale with unprecedented levels of detail. This type of data has the potential to empower people to make personal decisions about their exposure and support the development of local strategies for reducing pollution and improving health outcomes. However, calibration of these low-cost instruments has been a challenge. Often, a sensor package is calibrated via field calibration. This involves colocating the sensor package with a high-quality reference instrument for an extended period and then applying machine learning or other model fitting technique such as multiple linear regression to develop a calibration model for converting raw sensor signals to pollutant concentrations. Although this method helps to correct for the effects of ambient conditions (e.g., temperature) and cross sensitivities with nontarget pollutants, there is a growing body of evidence that calibration models can overfit to a given location or set of environmental conditions on account of the incidental correlation between pollutant levels and environmental conditions, including diurnal cycles. As a result, a sensor package trained at a field site may provide less reliable data when moved, or transferred, to a different location. This is a potential concern for applications seeking to perform monitoring away from regulatory monitoring sites, such as personal mobile monitoring or high-resolution monitoring of a neighborhood. We performed experiments confirming that transferability is indeed a problem and show that it can be improved by collecting data from multiple regulatory sites and building a calibration model that leverages data from a more diverse data set. We deployed three sensor packages to each of three sites with reference monitors (nine packages total) and then rotated the sensor packages through the sites over time. Two sites were in San Diego, CA, with a third outside of Bakersfield, CA, offering varying environmental conditions, general air quality composition, and pollutant concentrations. When compared to prior single-site calibration, the multisite approach exhibits better model transferability for a range of modeling approaches. Our experiments also reveal that random forest is especially prone to overfitting and confirm prior results that transfer is a significant source of both bias and standard error. Linear regression, on the other hand, although it exhibits relatively high error, does not degrade much in transfer. Bias dominated in our experiments, suggesting that transferability might be easily increased by detecting and correcting for bias. Also, given that many monitoring applications involve the deployment of many sensor packages based on the same sensing technology, there is an opportunity to leverage the availability of multiple sensors at multiple sites during calibration to lower the cost of training and better tolerate transfer. We contribute a new neural network architecture model termed split-NN that splits the model into two stages, in which the first stage corrects for sensor-to-sensor variation and the second stage uses the combined data of all the sensors to build a model for a single sensor package. The split-NN modeling approach outperforms multiple linear regression, traditional two- and four-layer neural networks, and random forest models. Depending on the training configuration, compared to random forest the split-NN method reduced error 0 %–11 % for NO2 and 6 %–13 % for O3.
    Print ISSN: 1867-1381
    Electronic ISSN: 1867-8548
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2019-08-06
    Description: We introduce an improved formulation of the Double Multiple Streamtube (DMST) model for the prediction of the flow quantities of Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWT). The improvement of the new formulation lies in that it renders the DMST valid for any induction factor, i.e. for any combination of rotor solidity and tip speed ratio. This is done by replacing the Rankine-Froude momentum theory of the DMST, which is invalid for moderate and high induction factors, with a new momentum theory recently proposed, which provides sensible results for any induction factor. The predictions of the two DMST formulations are compared with VAWT power measurements obtained at Princeton's High Reynolds number Test Facility, over a range of tip speed ratios, rotor solidities and Reyonlds numbers, including those experienced by full scale turbines. The results show that the new DMST formulation demonstrates a better overall performance, compared to the conventional one, when the rotor loading is moderate or high.
    Electronic ISSN: 2366-7621
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2019-08-05
    Description: The Peruvian Upwelling System is characterized by high primary productivity fuelled by the supply of nutrients in a highly dynamic boundary circulation. The intraseasonal evolution of the physical and biogeochemical properties is analysed based on shipboard observations and remote sensing conducted between April and June 2017 off central Peru. The poleward transport in the subsurface Peru Chile Undercurrent was highly variable and strongly intensified between mid and end of May. This intensification was likely caused by a first baroclinic mode downwelling coastal trapped wave excited at the equator at about 95° W that propagated poleward along the South American coast. The intensified poleward flow shortens the time of water mass advection from the equatorial current system to the study site. The impact of the anomalous advection is mostly noticed in the nitrogen cycle because during the shorter time needed for poleward advection less fixed nitrogen loss occurs within the waters. This causes a strong increase of nitrate concentrations and a decrease in the nitrogen deficit. These changes suggest that the advection caused by the coastal trapped wave supersedes the simultaneous effect of anomalous downwelling in terms of nutrient response.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0806
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0822
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2019-08-05
    Description: On 20 August 2018 a flash flood affected the Raganello Creek (southern Italy) causing 10 casualties. The rainfall event was so highly localized that the spatial coverage of rain gauges were inadequate to measure it, while radar products showed a storm cell with rain peaks of about 70–100 mm h−1. This scientific report provides a preliminary hydro-meteorological analysis of the event and evaluates the forecasting skills of a system based on the WRF–WRF-Hydro models, using both one-way and fully coupled approaches. The first results show a reasonable simulation of the event in terms of both rainfall and hydrological impact.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2019-08-06
    Description: Assessments of ocean data assimilation (DA) systems and observing system design experiments typically rely on identical or fraternal twin experiments. The identical twin approach has been recognized as yielding biased impact assessments in atmospheric predictions but these shortcomings are not sufficiently appreciated for oceanic DA applications. Here we present the first direct comparison of the fraternal and identical twin approach in an ocean DA application. We assess the assimilation impact for both approaches in a DA system for the Gulf of Mexico that uses the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Our comparisons show that, despite a reasonable error growth rate in both approaches, the identical twin produces a biased skill assessment overestimating the improvement from assimilating sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations while underestimating the value of assimilating temperature and salinity profiles. Such biases can lead to an undervaluation of some observing assets (in this case profilers) and thus misguided distribution of observing system investments.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0806
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0822
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: In the last few decades, non-traditional machining made the machining process easier than the traditional machining method. Electric discharge machining (EDM) is one of the most prominent methods of non-traditional machining processes. By the use of EDM, a complex profile and high hardness materials can be easily machined, which cannot easily be machined by the traditional machining method. EDM is widely used by the industries. This paper investigates an experiment with the cryogenically treated copper electrode and an ordinary copper electrode with various input parameters like the electrode rotation, gap voltage and discharge current for an EN24 (a high-strength and wear-resistant steel) material. An experiment was performed with electric discharge machining. Designs of an experiment are carried out using the Taguchi approach. An orthogonal L16 array prepared and used the different combination of the three input parameters (current, electrode rotation and gap voltage) to find an optimum value of the factors. The output factors are the overcut (OC), the tool wear rate (TWR) and surface roughness (Ra). The optimal level and importance levels of each of these parameters are obtained statically using an analysis-of-variance (ANOVA) table through the analysis of the S∕N ratio. The study also compares the theoretical and experimental values of the overcut, tool wear rate and surface roughness for traditional and non-traditional EDM. The following research finds optimal or dominating factors (current and rotational speed) for the TWR and Ra in both traditional and non-traditional electric discharge machining; moreover there was a reduction of approximately 9 % in overcut, 13.25 % in the tool wear rate and 15.75 % in surface roughness for the deep cryogenic and non-traditional machining process.
    Print ISSN: 2191-9151
    Electronic ISSN: 2191-916X
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of Delft University of Technology.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2019-08-05
    Description: This paper describes the Eulerian urban dispersion model EPISODE. EPISODE was developed to address a need for an urban air quality model in support of policy, planning, and air quality management in the Nordic, and, specifically, Norwegian setting. It can be used for the calculation of a variety of airborne pollutant concentrations, but we focus here on the implementation and application of the model for NO2 pollution. EPISODE consists of a Eulerian 3D grid model with embedded sub-grid dispersion models (e.g., a Gaussian plume model) for dispersion of pollution from line (i.e., roads) and point sources (e.g., chimney stacks). It considers the atmospheric processes advection, diffusion, and a NO2 photochemistry represented using the photostationary steady state approximation for NO2. EPISODE calculates hourly air concentrations representative of the grids and at receptor points. The latter allow EPISODE to estimate concentrations representative of the levels experienced by the population and to estimate their exposure. This methodological framework makes it suitable for simulating NO2 concentrations at fine scale resolution (
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2019-08-05
    Description: Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth System Model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a gross primary production (GPP, photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model for C3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation-transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C3 vegetation type. The model is forced here with satellite data for the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and site-specific meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs and prescribed parameters, the R2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8-day mean, 131 sites) – better than some state-of-the-art satellite data-driven light use efficiency models. The R2 is reduced to 0.69 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.37 (means by site) and 0.53 (means by vegetation type). The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosythesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2019-08-05
    Description: During the latter stages of the Holocene, and prior to anthropogenic global warming, the Earth underwent a period of cooling called the neoglacial. The neoglacial was associated with declining summer insolation and changes to Earth surface albedo. Although impacts varied globally, in China the neoglacial was generally associated with cooler, more arid climate, which led to renewed permafrost formation, and shifts in vegetation composition. Few studies in central China, however, have explored the impact of neoglacial cooling on freshwater diversity, especially in remote alpine regions. Here we take a palaeolimnological approach to characterise multidecadal variability in diatom community composition, beta-diversity, and flux-inferred productivity over the past 3,500 years in the Qinling Mountains, biodiversity hotspot. We investigate the impact of long-term cooling on primary producers in an alpine lake, which are fundamental to overall aquatic ecosystem function. We show that trends in beta-diversity and shifts in ecological guilds likely reflect changing lake-catchment resource availability, linked to both long-term attenuation of the Asian summer monsoon, and abrupt cool events, linked to a strengthened Siberian High. Important diatom community and productivity responses to the Medieval Climatic Optimum and the Little Ice Age are all apparent in our record, although impact from previous centennial-scale, cool-events are less evident.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9359
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2019-08-05
    Description: This study presents a comprehensive observation of the large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) in the eastern Asian sector during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day (17 March 2015) geomagnetic storm. For the first time, three dense networks of GPS receivers in China and Japan are combined together to obtain the two-dimensional (2-D) vertical total electron content (VTEC) perturbation maps in a wider longitudinal range than previous studies in this region. Results show that an LSTID spanning at least 60∘ in longitude (80–140∘ E) occurs as a result of possible atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) propagating from high to lower latitudes at around 09:40–11:40 UT (universal time), and the crest of this LSTID shows a tendency of dissipation starting from the eastern side. The manifestation of the 2-D VTEC perturbation maps is in good agreement with the recordings from two high-frequency Doppler sounders and the iso-frequency lines from eight ionosondes. Then, the propagation parameters of the LSTIDs are estimated by applying least-square fitting methods to the distinct structures in the 2-D VTEC perturbation plots. In general, the propagation parameters are observably longitudinally dependent. For example, the propagation direction is almost due southward between 105 and 115∘ E, while it is slightly southwest and southeast in the western and eastern sides of this region. This feature is probably related to the regional geomagnetic declination. The mean values of the period, trough velocity (Vt), crest velocity (Vc), and wavelength of the LSTIDs in the studied longitudinal bands are 74.8±1.4 min, 578±16 m s−1, 617±23 m s−1, and 2691±80 km, respectively. Finally, using the VTEC map data from the Madrigal database of the MIT Haystack Observatory, the characteristics of the ionospheric disturbances over the European sector (30–70∘ N, 10–20∘ E) are also studied. The results are very different from those in the eastern Asian sector in parameters like the occurrence time, oscillation period, and propagation velocities.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: Current models of gravitational tectonics on the structural styles of salt-influenced passive margins typically depict domains of upslope extension and corresponding downslope contraction separated by a mid-slope domain of translation that is rather undeformed. However, an undeformed translational domain is rarely observed in natural systems as extensional and contractional structures tend to interfere in the mid-slope area. In this study, we use sandbox analogue modelling analysed by digital image correlation (DIC) to investigate some of the factors that control the structural evolution of translational domains. As in nature, experimental deformation is driven by slowly increasing gravitational forces associated with continuous basal tilting. The results show that a translational domain persists throughout the basin evolution when the pre-kinematic layer is evenly distributed. However, a thin (1 mm in the experiment, 100 m in nature) pre-kinematic layer can render the translational domain relatively narrow compared to settings with a thicker (5 mm) pre-kinematic layer. In contrast, early differential sedimentary loading in the mid-slope area creates minibasins separated by salt diapirs overprinting the translational domain. Similarly, very low sedimentation rate (1 mm per day in the experiment, 〈 17 m Ma−1 in nature) in the early stage of the experiment results in a translational domain quickly overprinted by downslope migration of the extensional domain and upslope migration of the contractional domain. Our study suggests that the architecture of passive margin salt basins is closely linked to the pre- and syn-kinematic cover thickness. The translational domain, as an undeformed region in the supra-salt cover, is a transient feature and overprinted in passive margins with either low sedimentation rate or a heterogeneous sedimentation pattern.
    Print ISSN: 1869-9510
    Electronic ISSN: 1869-9529
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: Observation operators (OOs) are a central component of any data assimilation system. As they project the state variables of a numerical model into the space of the observations, they also provide an ideal opportunity to correct for effects that are not described or are insufficiently described by the model. In such cases a dynamical OO, an OO that interfaces to a secondary and more specialised model, often provides the best results. However, given the large number of observations to be assimilated in a typical atmospheric or oceanographic model, the computational resources needed for using a fully dynamical OO mean that this option is usually not feasible. This paper presents a method, based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA), that can be used to generate highly efficient statistical OOs that are based on a dynamical model. These OOs can provide an approximation to the dynamical model at a fraction of the computational cost. One possible application of such an OO is the modelling of the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Satellites that measure SST measure the temperature of the thin uppermost layer of the ocean. This layer is strongly affected by atmospheric conditions, and its temperature can differ significantly from the water below. This causes a discrepancy between the SST measurements and the upper layer of the OGCM, which typically has a thickness of around 1 m. The CCA OO method is used to parameterise the diurnal cycle of SST. The CCA OO is based on an input dataset from the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM), a high-resolution water column model that has been specifically tuned for this purpose. The parameterisations of the CCA OO are found to be in good agreement with the results from the GOTM and improve upon existing parameterisations, showing the potential of this method for use in data assimilation systems.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0784
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0792
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: Stochastically generated streamflow time series are widely used in water resource planning and management. Such series represent sets of plausible yet unobserved streamflow realizations which should reproduce the main characteristics of observed data. These characteristics include the distribution of daily streamflow values and their temporal correlation as expressed by short- and long-range dependence. Existing streamflow generation approaches have mainly focused on the time domain, even though simulation in the frequency domain provides good properties. These properties comprise the simulation of both short- and long-range dependence as well as extension to multiple sites. Simulation in the frequency domain is based on the randomization of the phases of the Fourier transformation. We here combine phase randomization simulation with a flexible, four-parameter kappa distribution, which allows for the extrapolation to as yet unobserved low and high flows. The simulation approach consists of seven steps: (1) fitting the theoretical kappa distribution, (2) normalization and deseasonalization of the marginal distribution, (3) Fourier transformation, (4) random phase generation, (5) inverse Fourier transformation, (6) back transformation, and (7) simulation. The simulation approach is applicable to both individual and multiple sites. It was applied to and validated on a set of four catchments in Switzerland. Our results show that the stochastic streamflow generator based on phase randomization produces realistic streamflow time series with respect to distributional properties and temporal correlation. However, cross-correlation among sites was in some cases found to be underestimated. The approach can be recommended as a flexible tool for various applications such as the dimensioning of reservoirs or the assessment of drought persistence. Highlights. Stochastic simulation of streamflow time series for individual and multiple sites by combining phase randomization and the kappa distribution. Simulated time series reproduce temporal correlation, seasonal distributions, and extremes of observed time series. Simulation procedure suitable for use in water resource planning and management.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: Chemodenitrification – the non-enzymatic process of nitrite reduction – may be an important sink for fixed nitrogen in tropical peatlands with low oxygen, low pH, high organic matter, and variable ferrous iron concentrations. Assessing abiotic reaction pathways is difficult because sterilization/inhibition agents can alter the availability of reactants by changing iron speciation and organic matter composition. We compared six commonly used soil sterilization techniques – γ-irradiation, chloroform, autoclaving, and chemical inhibitors (mercury, zinc, and azide) – for their compatibility with chemodenitrification assays for tropical peatland soils (organic-rich low pH soil from the Eastern Amazon). Out of the six techniques, γ-irradiation resulted in soil treatments with lowest cell viability and denitrification activity, and least effect on pH, iron speciation, and organic matter composition. Nitrite depletion rates in γ-irradiated soils were highly similar to untreated/live soils, whereas other sterilization techniques showed deviations. Chemodenitrification was a dominant process in tropical peatland soils assayed in this study. Abiotic N2O production was low to moderate (3–16 % of converted nitrite), and different sterilization techniques lead to significant variations on production rates due to inherent processes or potential artifacts. Our work represents the first methodological basis for testing the abiotic denitrification and N2O production potential in tropical peatland soil.
    Print ISSN: 1810-6277
    Electronic ISSN: 1810-6285
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: Balloons are used for various in situ measurements in the atmosphere. On turbulence measurements from rising balloons there is a potential for misinterpreting wake-created fluctuations in the trail of the balloon for atmospheric turbulence. These wake effects have an influence on temperature and humidity measurements from radiosondes as well. The primary aim of this study is to assess the likelihood for wake encounter on the payload below a rising balloon. Therefore, we present a tool for calculating this probability based on radiosonde wind data. This includes a retrieval of vertical winds from the radiosonde and an uncertainty analysis of the wake assessment. Our wake evaluation tool may be used for any balloon–gondola distance and provides a significant refinement compared to existing assessments. We have analysed wake effects for various balloon–gondola distances applying atmospheric background conditions from a set of 30 radiosondes. For a standard radiosonde we find an average probability for wake encounter of 28 %, pointing out the importance of estimating wake effects on sounding balloons. Furthermore, we find that even millimetre-sized objects in the payload can have significant effects on high-resolution turbulence measurements, if they are located upstream of the turbulence sensor.
    Print ISSN: 1867-1381
    Electronic ISSN: 1867-8548
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: AtChem is an open source zero-dimensional box-model for atmospheric chemistry. Any general set of chemical reactions can be used with AtChem, but the model was designed specifically for use with the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM, http://mcm.york.ac.uk/). AtChem was initially developed within the EUROCHAMP project as a web application (AtChem-online, https://atchem.leeds.ac.uk/webapp/) for modelling environmental chamber experiments; it was recently upgraded and further developed into a standalone offline version (AtChem2) which allows the user to run complex and long simulations, such as those needed for modelling of intensive field campaigns, as well as to perform batch model runs for sensitivity studies. AtChem is installed, set up and configured using semi-automated scripts and simple text configuration files, making it easy to use even for non-experienced users. A key feature of AtChem is that it can easily be constrained to observational data which may have different timescales, thus retaining all the information contained in the observations. Implementation of a continuous integration workflow, coupled with a comprehensive suite of tests and version control software, makes the AtChem codebase robust, reliable and traceable. The AtChem2 code and documentation are available at https://github.com/AtChem/, under the open source MIT license.
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: The 1783 Scilla landslide–tsunami (Calabria, southern Italy) is a well-studied event that caused more than 1500 fatalities on the beaches close to the town. This paper complements a previous work that was based on numerical simulations and was focused on the very local effects of the tsunami in Scilla. In this study we extend the computational domain to cover a wider portion of western Calabria and northeastern Sicily, including the western side of the Straits of Messina. This investigation focuses on Capo Peloro area (the easternmost cape of Sicily), where the highest tsunami effects outside Scilla were reported. Important tsunami observations, such as the wave height reaching 6 m at Torre degli Inglesi and flooding that reached over 600 m inland, have been successfully modeled but only by means of a high-resolution (10 m) topo-bathymetric grid, since coarser grids were inadequate for the purpose. Interestingly, the inundation of the small lake of Pantano Piccolo could not be reproduced by using today's coastal morphology, since a coastal dune now acts as a barrier against tsunamis. Historical analysis suggests that this dune was not in place at the time of the tsunami occurred and that a ground depression extending from the lake to the northern coast is a remnant of an ancient channel that was used as a pathway in Roman times. The removal of such an obstacle and the remodeling of the coeval morphology allows the simulations to reproduce the tsunami penetration up to the lake, thus supporting the hypothesis that the 1783 tsunami entered the lake following the Roman channel track. A further result of this study is that the computed regional tsunami propagation pattern provides a useful hint for assessing tsunami hazards in the Straits of Messina area, which is one of the most exposed areas to tsunami threats in Italy and in the Mediterranean Sea overall.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2019-08-02
    Description: The mass flux of air lifted within the updraughts (updraft in American English) of shallow convection is usually thought to be compensated outside the cloud through either large-scale subsidence or stronger downdraughts in a thin shell surrounding the cloud. Subsiding shells were postulated based on large eddy simulation and are experimentally tested in this study for shallow convection over land. Isolated cumulus clouds were probed with a small research aircraft over flat land and mountainous terrain, in different wind situations and at different levels of the clouds. The average of the 191 cloud transects shows the subsiding shell as a narrow downdraught region outside the cloud boundaries. The ensemble-mean subsiding shell is narrower on the upwind side of the cloud, while it is at least half a cloud diameter wide and more humid on the downwind side. At least half of the upward mass transport in the cloud is compensated within a distance of 20 % of the cloud diameter. However, this shell is not uniform. Distinct regions of downdraughts and updraughts with high variability in the vertical wind are frequent and randomly distributed in the vicinity and also within the cloud. The median diameter of the draughts directly at the cloud boundary is at least 4 times as large as inside the clouds and in the environment. Downdraughts at the cloud boundary are twice as frequent as updraughts. In contrast to the updraughts the major part of the downdraughts is situated outside of the cloud. The subsiding shell results from the distribution of these up- and downdraughts.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: Available results for five studied valleys of the Khibiny Mountains, Kola Peninsula, suggest that slush flows and, possibly for some valleys, typical debris flows with lower frequency, are a leading mechanism for downstream sediment delivery and valley floor topographical formation. Typical fluvial topography in slush flow-affected basins is extremely suppressed or nonexistent, since under such conditions, stream channels are unable to rework slush flow deposits. The recovery phase of fluvial topography can serve as an indicator of the magnitude and time passed since the last extreme event. A combination of grain size analysis, radionuclide fingerprinting with the 232Th content in the finer-grained sediment matrix (size 〈10 mm) and 14C dating, were applied to reveal the age and common structure of debris and slush flow environments and to investigate the main factors in their lithodynamics. Those helped to estimate transportation distances and capacities of the flows and the amount of fluvial reworking of its deposits with time. Application of radiocarbon dating to determine absolute ages (about 30 dates) of stabilization periods for the colluvial cones, mountain fans and valley bottoms and integration with other available chronological data provided a basis for distinguishing several stages of decreased activity of debris and slush flows and extreme slope failures through the second half of the Holocene. Field mapping and remote sensing data interpretation revealed spatial distribution patterns of debris and slush flows. Geomorphic analysis of large relic landforms in valley bottoms confirms, in general, the case for a significant reduction of debris flow magnitude since the last deglaciation and distinct shift to slush flow processes with much lower clastic content. A reliable chronology of the early events is yet to be obtained representing a challenging problem for future research.
    Print ISSN: 2199-8981
    Electronic ISSN: 2199-899X
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: The paper presents an integrated approach for the apportionment of water and sediment sources and pathways in ungauged territories. The approach comprises various elements such as a large-scale semi-distributed hydrological and erosion model (using the SWAT tool), a statistical assessment of regular discharge data, the discrimination of runoff sources using end-member mixing analysis (EMMA), the apportionment of sediment sources using fingerprinting technique and sediment concentration and water discharge hysteresis rating curves analyses. The approach has been applied to Western Dvina River Basin (WDRB). The results discussed in the paper indicate main features of the water and sediment regime. The components of the presented framework provide a guide for detailed water and sediment studies making it an inexpensive way to develop a roadmap to understand important hydrological processes at a watershed scale.
    Print ISSN: 2199-8981
    Electronic ISSN: 2199-899X
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2019-07-31
    Description: The stability properties as characterized by the fluctuations of finite-time Lyapunov exponents around their mean values are investigated in a three-level quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model with realistic mean state and variability. Firstly, the covariance structure of the fluctuation field is examined. In order to identify dominant patterns of collective excitation, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the fluctuation field of all of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents is performed. The three leading modes are patterns where the most unstable Lyapunov exponents fluctuate in phase. These modes are virtually independent of the integration time of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents. Secondly, large-deviation rate functions are estimated from time series of finite-time Lyapunov exponents based on the probability density functions and using the Legendre transform method. Serial correlation in the time series is properly accounted for. A large-deviation principle can be established for all of the Lyapunov exponents. Convergence is rather slow for the most unstable exponent, becomes faster when going further down in the Lyapunov spectrum, is very fast for the near-neutral and weakly dissipative modes, and becomes slow again for the strongly dissipative modes at the end of the Lyapunov spectrum. The curvature of the rate functions at the minimum is linked to the corresponding elements of the diffusion matrix. Also, the joint large-deviation rate function for the first and the second Lyapunov exponent is estimated.
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7946
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2019-07-31
    Description: Atmospheric oxidation of isoprene, the most abundantly emitted non-methane hydrocarbon, affects the abundances of ozone (O3), the hydroxyl radical (OH), nitrogen oxide radicals (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), oxygenated and nitrated organic compounds, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We analyze these effects in box models and in the global GEOS-Chem chemical transport model using the new reduced Caltech isoprene mechanism (RCIM) condensed from a recently developed explicit isoprene oxidation mechanism. We find many similarities with previous global models of isoprene chemistry along with a number of important differences. Proper accounting of the isomer distribution of peroxy radicals following the addition of OH and O2 to isoprene influences the subsequent distribution of products, decreasing in particular the yield of methacrolein and increasing the capacity of intramolecular hydrogen shifts to promptly regenerate OH. Hydrogen shift reactions throughout the mechanism lead to increased OH recycling, resulting in less depletion of OH under low-NO conditions than in previous mechanisms. Higher organonitrate yields and faster tertiary nitrate hydrolysis lead to more efficient NOx removal by isoprene and conversion to inorganic nitrate. Only 20 % of isoprene-derived organonitrates (excluding peroxyacyl nitrates) are chemically recycled to NOx. The global yield of formaldehyde from isoprene is 22 % per carbon and less sensitive to NO than in previous mechanisms. The global molar yield of glyoxal is 2 %, much lower than in previous mechanisms because of deposition and aerosol uptake of glyoxal precursors. Global production of isoprene SOA is about one-third from each of the following: isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX), organonitrates, and tetrafunctional compounds. We find a SOA yield from isoprene of 13 % per carbon, much higher than commonly assumed in models and likely offset by SOA chemical loss. We use the results of our simulations to further condense RCIM into a mini Caltech isoprene mechanism (Mini-CIM) for less expensive implementation in atmospheric models, with a total size (108 species, 345 reactions) comparable to currently used mechanisms.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2019-07-31
    Description: In order to predict the immunity to electromagnetic interference of vulnerable systems, not only the electronic system but also its enclosure has to be taken into consideration. In this work, the coupling behavior of electromagnetic pulses (EMP) and continuous wave (CW) signals into the shielded enclosure of a generic system is investigated by metrological and numerical methods. Since this enclosure forms an unwanted or parasitic cavity resonator, the enclosure`s resonance behavior as well as the characteristic quantities, i.e., the resonance frequencies and corresponding quality factors are of great interest, too. The usage of an optical field sensor reduces the influence of the measuring setup on the investigated system and thus, enables the analysis of the enclosure's resonance behavior, which delivers revealing information about the dependence of the quality factor on the aperture size of the enclosure.
    Print ISSN: 1684-9965
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9973
    Topics: Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: Although many studies have explored the effect of teleconnection indicators on flood, few investigations have focused on the assessment of the expected damages resulted by flood under the El-Niño or La-Niña condition. Therefore, this study’s aim was to determine the effect of El-Niño on the expected flood damage in the Kan River basin, Iran. To determine the flood damage costs, first, the precipitation enhancement during El-Niño condition was estimated then using a probabilistic approach the inundation area was determined under 5, 10 and 50 year return periods. The results showed that El-Niño increases the precipitation amount up to 8.2 % and 31 % with 60 % and 90 % confidence level, respectively. Flood damage assessment using damage-elevation curves showed that the expected increase percentile in flood damage for smaller return periods, which is more frequent, is much more than that for larger return periods. In general, for the return periods of 5- and 10-year, 31 % increase in the precipitation would result in 2416 % and 239 % damage increase, respectively. However, for the 50-year rainfall this increase amount will be about 74 %. These results indicate the importance of small flood events in flood management planning during El-Niño.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: Petermann Fjord is a deep (〉 1000 m) fjord that incises the coastline of northwest Greenland and was carved by an expanded Petermann Glacier, one of the six largest outlet glaciers draining the modern Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Between 5–70 m of unconsolidated glacigenic material infills in the fjord and adjacent Nares Strait, deposited as the Petermann and Nares Strait ice streams retreated through the area after the Last Glacial Maximum. We have investigated the deglacial deposits using seismic stratigraphic techniques and have correlated our results with high-resolution bathymetric data and core lithofacies. We identify six seismo-acoustic facies in more than 3500 line-km of sub-bottom and seismic-reflection profiles throughout the fjord, Hall Basin and Kennedy Channel. Seismo-acoustic facies relate to: bedrock or till surfaces (Facies I); subglacial deposition (Facies II); deposition from meltwater plumes and icebergs in quiescent glaciomarine conditions (Facies III, IV); deposition at grounded ice margins during stillstands in retreat (grounding-zone wedges; Facies V); and the redeposition of material down slopes (Facies IV). These sediment units represent the total volume of glacial sediment delivered to the mapped marine environment during retreat. We calculate a glacial sediment flux for the former Petermann Ice Stream as 1080–1420 m3 a−1 per meter of ice stream width and an average deglacial erosion rate for the basin of 0.29–0.34 mm a−1. Our deglacial erosion rates are consistent with results from Antarctic Peninsula fjord systems but are several times lower than values for other modern GrIS catchments. This difference is attributed to fact that large volumes of surface water do not access the bed in the Petermann system and we conclude that glacial erosion is limited to areas overridden by streaming ice in this large outlet glacier setting. Erosion rates are also presented for two phases of ice retreat and confirm that there is significant variation in these rates over a glacial-deglacial transition. Our new fluxes and erosion rates show that the Petermann Ice Stream was approximately as efficient as the palaeo-Jakobshavn Isbrae at eroding, transporting and delivering sediment to its margin during early deglaciation.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: This study introduces and evaluates a comprehensive, model-generated dataset of Northern Hemisphere permafrost conditions at 81 km2 resolution. Surface meteorological forcing fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis were used to drive an improved version of the land component of MERRA-2 in middle-to-high northern latitudes from 1980 to 2017. The resulting simulated permafrost distribution across the Northern Hemisphere mostly captures the observed extent of continuous and discontinuous permafrost but misses the ecosystem-protected permafrost zones in western Siberia. Noticeable discrepancies also appear along the southern edge of the permafrost regions where sporadic and isolated permafrost types dominate. The evaluation of the simulated active layer thickness (ALT) against remote sensing retrievals and in situ measurements demonstrates reasonable skill except in Mongolia. The RMSE (bias) of climatological ALT is 1.22 m (−0.48 m) across all sites and 0.33 m (−0.04 m) without the Mongolia sites. In northern Alaska, both ALT retrievals from airborne remote sensing for 2015 and the corresponding simulated ALT exhibit limited skill versus in situ measurements at the model scale. In addition, the simulated ALT has larger spatial variability than the remotely sensed ALT, although it agrees well with the retrievals when considering measurement uncertainty. Controls on the spatial variability of ALT are examined with idealized numerical experiments focusing on northern Alaska; meteorological forcing and soil types are found to have dominant impacts on the spatial variability of ALT, with vegetation also playing a role through its modulation of snow accumulation. A correlation analysis further reveals that accumulated above-freezing air temperature and maximum snow water equivalent explain most of the year-to-year variability of ALT nearly everywhere over the model-simulated permafrost regions.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: A detailed and accurate reconstruction of the past climate is essential in understanding the interactions between ecosystems and their environment through time. We know that climatic drivers have shaped the distribution and evolution of species, including our own, and their habitats. Yet, spatially-detailed climate reconstructions that continuously cover the Quaternary do not exist. This is mainly because no paleoclimate model can reconstruct regional-scale dynamics over geological time scales. Here we develop a statistical emulator, the Global Climate Model Emulator (GCMET), which reconstructs the climate of the last 800 000 years with unprecedented spatial detail. GCMET captures the temporal dynamics of glacial-interglacial climates as an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity would whilst resolving the local dynamics with the accuracy of a Global Climate Model. It provides a new, unique resource to explore the climate of the Quaternary, which we use to investigate the long-term stability of major habitat types. We identify a number of stable pockets of habitat that have remained unchanged over the last 800 thousand years, acting as potential long-term evolutionary refugia. Thus, the highly detailed, comprehensive overview of climatic changes through time delivered by GCMET provides the needed resolution to quantify the role of long term habitat change and fragmentation in an ecological and anthropological context.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9340
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9359
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: Data assimilation integrates information from observational measurements with numerical models. When used with coupled models of Earth system compartments, e.g. the atmosphere and the ocean, consistent joint states can be estimated. A common approach for data assimilation are ensemble-based methods which use an ensemble of state realizations to estimate the state and its uncertainty. These methods are far more costly to compute than a single coupled model because of the required integration of the ensemble. However, with uncoupled models, the methods also have been shown to exhibit a particularly good scaling behavior. This study discusses an approach to augment a coupled model with data assimilation functionality provided by the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). Using only minimal changes in the codes of the different compartment models, a particularly efficient data assimilation system is generated that utilizes parallelization and in-memory data transfers between the models and the data assimilation functions and hence avoids most of the filter reading and writing and also model restarts during the data assimilation process. The study explains the required modifications of the programs on the example of the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model AWI-CM. Using the case of the assimilation of oceanic observations shows that the data assimilation leads only small overheads in computing time of about 15 % compared to the model without data assimilation and a very good parallel scalability. The model-agnostic structure of the assimilation software ensures a separation of concerns in that the development of data assimilation methods and be separated from the model application.
    Print ISSN: 1991-9611
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-962X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Description: Rapid economic growth in China over the past 30 years has resulted in significant increases in the concentrations of small particulates (PM2.5) over the city of Beijing. In addition to health problems, high aerosol loading can impact visibility and thus reduce photolysis rates over the city, leading to potential implications for photochemistry. Photolysis rates are highly sensitive not only to the vertical distribution of aerosols but also to their composition, as this can impact how the incoming solar radiation is scattered or absorbed. This study, for the first time, uses aerosol composition measurements and lidar optical depth to drive the Fast-JX photolysis scheme and quantify the photochemical impacts of different aerosol species during the Air Pollution and Human Health (APHH) measurement campaigns in Beijing in November–December 2016 and May–June 2017. This work demonstrates that severe haze pollution events (PM2.5 〉 75 µg m−3) occur during both winter and summer, leading to reductions in O3 photolysis rates of 27 %–34 % (greatest in winter) and reductions in NO2 photolysis of 40 %–66 % (greatest in summer) at the surface. It also shows that in spite of much lower PM2.5 concentrations in the summer months, the absolute changes in photolysis rates are larger for both O3 and NO2. In the winter, absorbing species such as black carbon dominate the photolysis response to aerosols, leading to mean reductions in J[O1D] and J[NO2] in the lowest 1 km of 24 % and 23 %, respectively. In contrast, in the summer, scattering aerosol such as organic matter dominate the response, leading to mean decreases of 2 %–3 % at the surface and increases of 8 %–10 % at higher altitudes (3–4 km). During these haze events in both campaigns, the influence of aerosol on photolysis rates dominates over that from clouds. These large impacts on photochemistry can have significant implications for concentrations of important atmospheric oxidants such as the hydroxyl radical. Idealized photochemical box model studies show that such large impacts on photochemistry could lead to a 12 % reduction in surface O3 (3 % for OH) due to haze pollution. This highlights that PM2.5 mitigation strategies could have important implications for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere both at the surface and in the free troposphere.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2019-07-29
    Description: In the Eastern Alps no previous research focused on the impact of wildfires on the occurrence of rockfalls. The investigation of wildfires and post-wildfire rockfalls gains new importance with respect to changes in weather extremes and rapid social developments such as population growths and tourism. The present work describes a wildfire that occurred in August 2018 in a famous world-heritage site in Austria. Indicators of fire severity and rockfall occurrence during and after the fire are described.
    Electronic ISSN: 2195-9269
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union (EGU).