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  • Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)  (16)
  • Spanish  (16)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-11-12
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-12
    Description: At present, carbon footprint labelling is at the heart of debates on the environmental impact of products, but there are other environmental criteria related to the sustainability of products that could also have an impact on developing countries' exports in the future. Furthermore, this issue has proved to be highly dynamic and subject to constant change over time; it is thus clear that its evolution needs to be closely monitored in view of the diverse consequences it might have on the Argentine export sector. The present study shows how relevant the European Union is for Argentina as a destination market for Argentine export products that could be potentially affected by carbon footprint standards or labelling. The actions taken in the United Kingdom and France, where special attention is paid to the carbon footprint of food products sold in large retail chains, and the European Commission's initiative on Environmental Footprint of Products are outstanding examples of initiatives aimed at measuring carbon footprint. It was also found that the basket of exports likely to be affected by carbon footprint measurement schemes accounts for around one-fourth of Argentine exports to each of the destinations included in this study: the United Kingdom, France, the European Union, the United States and Japan. In 2007-2010, average exports of these products to the European Union reached USD 2.82 billion, which totalled 29.1% of Argentine exports of the affected products to the world. In turn, the United States accounted for 11.1% of total exports of affected products, whereas the share of Japan only reached 2.1%. France and the United Kingdom accounted for only a small portion of this trade: 1.8% and 2.4% respectively. A more detailed analysis - at the level of heading - reveals that the main Argentine exports which in 2007-2010 were destined to the main markets implementing carbon footprint labelling schemes corresponded to bovine meat and its preparations, wines, crustaceans and fish, citrus fruit, apples and pears and other fruit, fruit juices and natural honey. According to 2003 data, an analysis of the degree of vulnerability of Argentine products destined to other markets shows that the most vulnerable productive sectors were honey, fruit juices, tea and apples and pears as well as bovine, swine and ovine meat and meat preparations, citrus fruit, fruit, vegetables and canned vegetables, and olive oil.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Umweltbelastung ; Export ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: The recent rise in commodity prices and the increase in price volatility have aroused certain concern and controversy among the leaders of the major world powers and international organisations over the possibility that a new food crisis could break out. This paper intends to delve into some aspects of the phenomenon known as commodity price volatility. First, we study the relationship between volatility and financial markets. We can infer from the literature that the empirical evidence as regards this relationship is not conclusive. Secondly, we present an econometric model to analyse the main factors that would determine the volatility of a group of agricultural commodities: corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, soybean, soybean oil and sunflower oil. Among the main factors that would determine volatility we found: US inflation volatility and US interest rate volatility; weather conditions related to Pacific Ocean currents, the growth of emerging countries and the level of inventories available. Lastly, we intend to determine whether the price volatility of the commodities under study affects Argentine exports of these products.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Rohstoffpreis ; Volatilität ; Finanzmarkt ; Agrarpreis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: This paper analyzes the relation between trade and climate change from a Developing country point of view regarding the next meeting of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December. Trade measures related to mitigation and adaptation to the climate change are reviewed; their effects and the arguments used to justify their application are analyzed; the possible links between these measures and WTO rules are presented; the way Developing countries could face the effects of those measures is discussed, and finally the present debate at the multilateral level is summed up. Some of these measures are included in the European Union legal framework and in an Act that has so far been approved by the United States House of Representatives. These measures are also being discussed in multilateral negotiations. In this sense, the new scheme to deal with climate change that is expected to be approved in Copenhagen for an effective, complete and sustained implementation of the Convention after 2012 could include compromises that drive to measures with impacts on international trade. Furthermore, in the private sector, requisites and standards are being developed, which although voluntary in nature, will impact on trade flows. That is why it is important that all these measures be in conformity with Convention and WTO principles and rules to avoid being used as a disguised trade restriction. Besides, with the aim of minimizing the negative impacts of mitigation measures on Developing countries and fulfilling the least costly adaptation of their economies, an effective technology and financial resource transference to Developing countries from Developed countries should be assured.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: This paper analyses different alternatives of commercial integration for Argentina using a general equilibrium computable model. The results support the idea that the best policy option for Argentina is to deepen its commercial relations with the ALADI members. To foster freer trade with Mexico and the Andean Community countries appears as a priority for Argentina in the case that the United States negotiates bilateral free trade agreements with other Latin American countries. Finally, Argentina and Brazil have common interests regarding the options of integration in the hemisphere.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Industriegüteraußenhandel ; Arbeitsintensität ; Außenhandelsliberalisierung ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 6
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    Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: This paper delves into the international integration of labour-intensive manufactures from two different standpoints. Firstly, by analysing the factors which explain these sector's exports over the past years, especially identifying those related to demand and to Argentine exporters' capabilities to compete abroad. Secondly, by estimating potential trade flow changes arising from the different trade liberalization scenarios, which take into account the elimination of tariffs with our main trade partners as well as at the multilateral level.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Industriegüteraußenhandel ; Arbeitsintensität ; Außenhandelsliberalisierung ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 7
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    Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: In an integration process, the quality of the agreement reached depends on the affinity observed in the domestic strategies and policies. Insofar as they are compatible, the agreement will be successful. Therefore, the harmonization of policies in regional integration agreements is justified. Within the broad spectrum of public policies, fiscal policy is essential and is a powerful element that, if not properly managed, may cause serious problems in the development of regional integration agreements. In a framework of fiscal interdependence, both domestic and external variables have an influence. Internally, the level and distribution of a country’s spending have significant influence on the partner, in the same way as taxes do. The symmetry observed with respect to expenditure and taxes is shown, for instance, by the fact that a subsidy to an enterprise may be granted directly (expense) or by reducing its costs (tax exemption). Although both sides of the fiscal sphere have the same effect, tax reduction does not seem to be so frowned upon by academic circles as direct subsidies. The closest case (in geographical and temporal terms) is that of the fiscal benefits granted by Brazil, which meant the relocation of investments from Argentina. As regards external variables, although capital flows are not exclusively a part of fiscal policy, to a great extent, they are the other face of it. When faced with the structural existence of fiscal deficits (in which expenditures and taxes are primary determinants) or current account deficits (tax policy being a central element of competitiveness), the economy becomes highly dependent on external saving. This study focuses on domestic variables and their effects are evaluated both from a theoretical as well as empirical perspective.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Steuerharmonisierung ; MERCOSUR-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 8
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    Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: In May 2004 ten new members are incorporated to the European Union (EU) which, considered on the whole, represent a GDP which is four times greater than the Argentine GDP. With this expansion, the EU population will increase by 24%, its surface will increase by 28%, and the GDP will increase by only 5%. From the trade viewpoint, the expansion of the EU means a potential opportunity for the Argentine Republic as well as a tangible threat: having tariff preferences in a wider market once the Mercosur - European Union free trade agreement is entered into, and the possibility that the Argentine Republic is replaced as a supplier of the current EU (15 countries) by the new partners. In this analysis, it must be taken into account that the potential impact on trade will not be abrupt, since the expansion process of the EU took place gradually, and the new partners have had tariff preferences in the EU-15 for a long time. In fact, the European Agreements, signed at the beginning of the nineties, provided an institutional framework for the bilateral relationships between the countries of Central and Western Europe, and the EU which resulted in the free trade of industrial products, while, for the agricultural products, instead, the parties agreed upon a gradual liberalization.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Erweiterung ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Argentinien ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 9
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    Buenos Aires: Centro de Economía Internacional (CEI)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: The South-South trade offers a wide spectrum of opportunities for developing countries, given the complementary feature existing and the underexploitation of trade among the economies in the hemisphere. For the purpose of taking advantage of those opportunities, in June 2004, the third round of negotiations of the Global System of Trade Preferences (Sistema Global de Preferencias Comerciales - GSTP) among Developing Countries, a mechanism created by the G-77 in 1982 to promote the South-South trade, was launched in Sao Paulo (UNCTAD XI – United Nations Conference on Trade and Development). In this paper, the impact that a broadening of the GSTP agreement may have on the Argentine trade is estimated by using different approaches: i) quantification of the trade that is currently performed under the generalized system of trade preferences (GSTP) among developing countries (PEDs); ii) general equilibrium estimation of the impact of a liberalization of trade among developing countries; iii) analysis of the trade complementarity among the GSTP countries; and iv) partial equilibrium estimation of the impact of a liberalization of trade among developing countries in such key sectors as agriculture, textile, among others.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Süd-Süd-Beziehungen ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Handelsabkommen ; Freihandelszone ; Regionalökonomik ; MERCOSUR-Staaten ; Amerika ; EU-Staaten ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: Trade relations with the European Union are of critical importance to our country. Historically, and aside from economic cycles and trade agreements that may have geographically redirected trade flows, the Old World is one of Argentina’s main trade partners, both in terms of the origin of our imports as well as in terms of the destination of our sales, which points to the high degree of complementarity existing between the production structures of both regions. To this should be added other political factors -such as the importance of the European bloc in the international scenario- and economic factors -such as the possible effect on other negotiation forum, such as FTAA or WTO- , which enhance even more the importance of a free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The concessions granted in a free trade agreement between two blocs may modify exchanges between the partners. On the one hand, obtaining tariff preferences tends to lead to an increase in exports towards the new partner; on the other hand, this may involve the loss of preferential access exclusivity for the older partners (in this case Mercosur partners), which means that sales to that destination face new competition which may partially or totally displace exports. This is what creates opportunities and threats for foreign trade, through changes in exports and imports, which in theoretical terms causes trade creation and trade diversion effects.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Argentinien ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: A region which harbors 30% of the world population - 1,700 million inhabitants - and produces 14% of the global economy, and that, in addition, shows the biggest commercial growth rates of the last two decades appears to be the inexorable fate for a country which needs to increase substantially its placement in the exporting world. In that case, East Asia offers a promising market for the Argentine products, both due to the size and dynamism of its economy and the match between its demand for imports and our potential for exports. Although this region is fully integrated to the international trade (it generates 24% of the world exports and 21% of the world imports), Argentina’s commercial exchange with East Asia is clearly underexploited since it is hardly represented in 10.2% of our foreign sales and in 10.4% of our purchases. However, there are numerous commercial opportunities for our products in the region. Argentine products that have greater opportunity of increasing its sales in these countries have been identified, which can be divided into those products which are already sold there and those which have not yet entered, i.e. the unexploited opportunities. Among the first group, the Asian countries have made imports in the amount of 107 thousand million dollars, and Argentina has sold only 1,992 million out of these. The greatest opportunities occur in those items where there is a match between the Argentine export structure and the Asian countries’ import structure: the food sector (oleaginous foodstuff, such as seeds, oil or flour, cereals, fish, and fruit), fuels, chemicals, metal manufactures (steel and aluminium), and leather. Out of these, those having the greater insertion are the oleaginous sector products, while a medium and low insertion can be found among leather and steel manufactures.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Ostasien ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; MERCOSUR-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: Trade between the countries of the Andean Community (AC) and Mercosur showed a positive trend throughout the nineties, although it slowed down in the second half of the decade and beginning of this decade. It can also be seen that if trade flows between the AC and Mercosur are adjusted according to the share of their respective countries in world trade, the trade exchange level between both blocks has not shown any significant changes during the last ten years. This means that integration did not go beyond the change in the share of these countries in the world’s economy. Recent history shows that Argentina stands out in the trade relationship between Mercosur and CAN as the only Mercosur member shifting away from the Andean countries, which throughout the nineties lost their share both in Argentine exports as well as imports. In the other Mercosur countries the opposite is found to be the case. As a section of the Harmonized System, Mercosur exports to the AC show much higher diversification than AC sales to Mercosur, which even show greater concentration than is found in its sales to the rest of the world, as is the case with mineral fuels. Although the AC accounts for 7% of Argentine exports outside Mercosur, the Andean countries are an important destination for several product groups. As far as Argentina is concerned, the AC accounts for 14-17% of Argentina’s extra-Mercosur sales of Chemicals, Plastics and rubber, Machinery and Equipment and Base metals and their manufactures. A similar development is found in Brazil for the first three as well as in Textiles and their manufactures. Since the tariff liberalization process in both blocs is far from being complete (except in the case of Bolivia, which signed a broad liberalization agreement with the countries of Mercosur), the question arises as to how the elimination of tariffs between the two large blocs of South America could lead to deeper trade integration.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Handelsabkommen ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; MERCOSUR-Staaten ; Andenpakt-Staaten ; Argentinien ; Brasilien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Description: Argentina has an ambitious trade negotiations agenda for the coming years, both at the multilateral level (WTO) and the regional level (FTAA, MERCOSUR-EU, etc.). In this paper an initial assessment is made of the economic impact of the concessions (on the part of Argentina and of the future partners) involved in such agreements. For this purpose, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used, which reflects the interrelations between all economic sectors and identifies the winners and losers after trade liberalization. The model used was developed at the Foreign Ministry’s International Economy Centre (CEI), based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. In the CEI version, the model adds nonstandard features, such as growing returns to scale in the manufacturing sectors, capital accumulation in the medium term and a positive relationship between trade openness and the productivity of the factors involved. In order to make the model operational (calibration), the latest GTAP database version is used. With a deliberate focus on the negotiations agenda of Argentina, five trade integration scenarios were simulated: (i) Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), (ii) A free trade agreement between the countries of MERCOSUR and the European Union, iii) A combination of (i) and (ii) above, (iv) A free trade agreement between the countries of MERCOSUR and the United States (4 + 1) and v) Free world trade. In general terms, these agreements are simulated by setting bilateral tariff rates at zero. Accordingly, the simulated scenarios are the upper limit of the results that could be obtained from the simulated trade liberalization agreements. The simulations use a GTAP data base aggregation of sixteen sectors and ten regions. This enables the detection of the main aggregate, sectorial effects and the trade patterns of the trade integration scenarios.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Handelsabkommen ; Argentinien ; Makroökonomischer Einfluss
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2015-04-20
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Freihandelszone ; Amerika ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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