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  • E62  (19)
  • Bucharest: Editura ASE  (18)
  • Wiley
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-03-07
    Description: This paper studies the wasteful effect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between opportunistic behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill. In particular, public officials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. A simple extraction technology in the government administration is introduced in a standard Real-Business-Cycle (RBC) setup augmented with detailed public sector. The model is calibrated to German data for the period 1970-2007. The main findings are: (i) the model performs well vis-a-vis the data; (ii) Due to the existence of a significant public sector wage premium and the high public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent in opportunistic activities, which in turn leads to significant losses in terms of output; (iii) The model-based loss measures obtained for the EU-12 countries are highly-correlated to indices of bureaucratic inefficiency.
    Description: in press
    Keywords: E62 ; J45 ; E69 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; rent-seeking ; opportunism ; public employment ; government wages
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Bucharest: Editura ASE
    Publication Date: 2017-09-27
    Description: The paper proposes an operational definition of safe public debt levels and discusses various concrete approaches to calculate them. A public debt level is considered safe if it is associated with a low probability of reaching levels likely to generate significant economic costs within a given time frame. Like debt sustainability assessments, implementing such a broad definition requires medium-term projections of the debt-to-GDP ratio. This implies that different sets of plausible assumptions can yield fairly different "safe2 debt levels for the same country. However, the proposed framework has the merit to force policymakers and analysts to be explicit about the assumptions underlying their calculations.
    Keywords: E62 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; public debt ; primary surplus ; uncertainty
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-09-27
    Description: The fiscal policy response to the consequences of the financial and economic crisis consisted either in adopting expansionary policies to stimulate the aggregate demand, or in promoting fiscal consolidation programs designed to restore the sustainability of the public finances. This paper examines the options of the Romanian authorities regarding the fiscal policy decisions in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, and subsequently as the fiscal consolidation program initiated in 2010 has advanced. The paper concludes that the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches cannot be analyzed without taking into account the short-term constraints and the solution adopted by the policymakers, namely to realize the fiscal adjustment was inevitable.
    Keywords: E62 ; H12 ; H60 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal consolidation ; economic growth ; crisis management
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-09-27
    Description: This paper studies the determinants of economic growth and the role of the public budget in European Union (EU) member states in Central and Eastern Europe, that joined the European Union in 2004, with a balanced data set from 1996 until 2012. A special focus is set on the relationship between growth and the public deficit and their behavior before and after the accession is studied. The outcome reveals a significant negative relationship between the deficit ratio and subsequent economic growth for the group of the eight selected countries. This effect indicates to be stronger after EU accession than before.
    Keywords: H62 ; E62 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; economic growth ; public debt ; new EU member states
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Bucharest: Editura ASE
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: Debt Overhang is a controversial issue in the eurozone countries and is considered as one of the factors which created the current economic crisis. How to deal with sovereign debt has been debated both at the theoretical and policy making level. This paper looks at the Greek debt and four options are discussed: (a) unilateral default (b) unilaterally imposed austerity measures (c) restructuring through negotiating and (d) a tax on wealth to pay for the debt. Optimal options depend on the borrowing rate, debt maturity and debt haircut.
    Keywords: H63 ; E62 ; H26 ; H21 ; ddc:330 ; eurozone ; debt ; Greece
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: This study examines the fiscal sustainability of SAARC and Asian Growth-Triangle countries using Fisher and IPS tests of panel unit root and Pedroni test of panel cointegration. The tests are applied to the relationships, in terms of GDP ratios, between, i) the debt and primary surplus, and ii) government expenditure and revenues. Both models show consistent results suggesting that fiscal policy for the low-income countries is sustainable whereas it may not be sustainable for the high-income countries. This also indicates that the fiscal policy can be sustainable (non-sustainable) even for the debt above (below) 60 percent of the GDP.
    Keywords: E62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; Debt ; Fiscal Policy ; Sustainability ; Panel Unit Root ; Panel Cointegration
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: The recent economic and financial crisis emphasized the vulnerabilities at international level and among them is the public debt. The aim of this paper is to analyse the debt Laffer curve for Romania's case to see if country suffer from debt overhang. Data on public debt for the period 2013 - 2014 showed that Romania is on the right side of the debt Laffer curve, far from the peak of debt beyond which we can talk about a shift on the wrong side of the curve.
    Keywords: H63 ; G15 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; Laffer curve ; public debt ; economic crisis ; fiscal policy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: This study examined the composition effect of government expenditure on private consumption and output growth in Nigeria using the framework of single equation error correction mechanism. The unit root and cointegration tests were conducted on the variables of interest while single equations Error Correction Models were estimated. The result suggests that government expenditures have long-run effect both on private consumption and output. The findings also revealed that government spending on education and health and social security have crowding-in effect on private consumption while other components such as government spending on administration, construction, agriculture, transport and communication have crowding-out effect on private consumption. The short-run behaviour of the model as captured by the ECM in the private consumption equation is that variables did not return to equilibrium after a short-run deviation. The finding also revealed that government spending on education and health, social security, agriculture and administration has positive effect on output while expenditure components such as government spending on construction, transport and communication have negative effect on output. The short-run behaviour of the model as captured by the ECM in the output equation is that variables did not return to equilibrium after a short-run deviation. The study also found that only two of the six components significantly influenced private consumption and output growth. The study therefore concluded that government spending on education and health, social security, agriculture and administration were growth-enhancing while government expenditure on construction, transport and communication were growth-retarding during the period under investigation.
    Keywords: C22 ; E62 ; 023 ; H5 ; ddc:330 ; Output growth ; government spending ; composition effect ; long-run effect ; cointegration
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between tax revenue and government spending in order to make some policy suggestions on how to achieve fiscal discipline in Turkey. We have used the cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) method along with the Granger causality test (1969). The empirical findings indicate that there is a uni-directional causality running from spending to tax revenue. In other words, our findings support the spend-and-tax hypothesis for fiscal discipline in Turkey over the period of 1975 - 2011. Since there is a uni-directional causality, running from government spending to tax revenue, spending restrictions are required to reduce budget deficits, and reducing government spending is a better solution than increasing tax revenue to obtain optimal fiscal discipline in Turkey.
    Keywords: E62 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal Discipline ; Fiscal Policy ; Government Revenue ; Government Expenditure ; Causality Test
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Indonesia for the period of 1999 - 2010. First, we propose the reaction function between monetary and fiscal policies. Second, we identify the main determinants of both interaction decisions, i.e. interest rate and primary balance surplus. The results of quarterly data estimation show that in the short term monetary policy reacts as expected to the fiscal policy - in the sense that governments have the ability to run a primary surplus. This action makes fiscal sustainability easier to achieve in the long run. On the other hand, fiscal policy marginally reacts to the monetary policy (interest rate) so that fiscal sustainability will be more difficult to attain given the opposite response of governments to public debt shocks. Furthermore, the interaction matrix indicates that monetary policy is more dominant in Indonesia. In these circumstances, the active fiscal policy should be made in order to reach economic growth sustainability in the long run.
    Keywords: E58 ; E62 ; E63 ; ddc:330 ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Interest Rates ; Primary Surplus
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: One of the most controversial issues in public finance and macroeconomics is the nature of the relationship between government spending and revenues. The debate between economists and politicians has been emphasised recently because of the increased budget deficits and defaults in many developed and developing countries. Many economists (Friedman, 1978; Payne, 1997; Darrat, 1998; Albatel, 2002) argued that it is very important to investigate whether the government spending determines the revenues and/or whether government revenue determines the government spending. We are applying an empirical analysis of the spend-tax or tax-spend hypothesis, in order to identify the direction of the causality between government spending and revenues in Greece for the period 1833-2009, a period of industrialisation, urbanisation, increased growth, increased government spending, and enormous budget deficits during the last decades and a serious problem with the public debt. In order to investigate the relationship between government revenues and spending we used the Dickey and Fuller (1979) and Phillips and Perron (1988) unit root tests, the Chow (1960) test and Zivot and Andrews (1992) unit root tests which allow structural changes, the Johansen (1988) cointegration approach and finally the Granger (1969) causality tests. We found strong evidence of long-run relationship between government spending and revenues. Additionally, we used the Granger-causality test which indicates that the causality runs from spending to revenues, thus support of the spend-tax hypothesis. The spend-tax hypothesis maintains that a political system somehow determines how much to spend and then makes the adjustments in tax policy and revenue sources in order to finance the government spending so limitations in spending will be effective for the economy of Greece, but no one could argue that limitations of taxation will be ineffective. It is very important for Greek government to identify the causal direction between government spending and tax revenues, because the direction of causality provides useful insights into how the country can manage their unsustainable budget deficits in the future.
    Keywords: C01 ; C12 ; C22 ; E61 ; E62 ; E63 ; H0 ; H61 ; ddc:330 ; Government Spending ; Government Revenues ; Applied Economics ; Greece ; Spend-Tax Hypothesis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: The aim of this paper is to investigate the vulnerability of fiscal policy in the case of 10 Central and Eastern European countries. We use a newly introduce indicator named Cumulative Excess of the Primary Balance (CEPB) which shows the deviations of current fiscal policy from a fiscal rule implying the stabilization of the public debt. Using annual data extracted for 1996-2010 period, we find no evidence of fiscal vulnerability in the case of Bulgaria and Estonia. For rest of the countries the results indicate more or less fiscal vulnerability depending how large CEPB is.
    Keywords: E62 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal policy ; Primary balance ; Public debt ; Fiscal sustainability
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: A recent amendment in Pakistan's federal constitution allows provinces to borrow domestically and abroad. There is a concern that it may generate unsustainable debt burden, considering the country's delinquent monetary policy and a historical deficit bias. The objective of this paper is to assess sustainability of public debt. First, we use Cecchetti, et al. (2010) methodology to regress public debt on indicators of fiscal stance i.e. primary deficit and structural deficit at federal level for the period 1976-2011. We conclude that fiscal stance remained opportunistically expansionary. Next, we look at debt sustainability and its implications for macroeconomic management at provincial level by separating the effects of growth and inflation on provincial public debt, interest payments, and primary balance by using the framework of Liu, et al. (2009). Our findings suggest declining debt sustainability at provincial level, which calls for a strong regulatory framework and coordination between federal and provincial debt strategies.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; E62 ; E63 ; H61 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; Subnational finance ; Fiscal responsibility ; Monetary policy ; Fiscal federalism ; Pakistan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Bucharest: Editura ASE
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: Social contributions have an important impact on payroll policy. Also, social contributions represent a significant budgetary revenue item which can be viewed at the edge between taxation and insurance. Social contributions in Romania experienced many changes which ended in 2008. Nowadays, they are within a long transaction period towards partial externalization of the insurance activity to privately managed funds. The aim of this paper is to analyse the homogeneity of Romanian social security public scheme using annual data extracted from 2002-2009.The main findings reveal that social contributions reached the pinnacle of diversification, being too many, some of them with a small contribution rates; fiscal reforms which reduced contribution rates advantaged employers, and state will be interested to externalize this activity as far private sector will be able to assume this responsibility and the budgetary effects are acceptable for the public finance.
    Keywords: E62 ; H24 ; ddc:330 ; Social contributions ; Fiscal policy ; Herfindahl&#x2013 ; Hirschman Index ; Romania
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: In the context of a society with limited resources, borrowing seems to be a desirable method that allows governments to finance the required expenditures. But government borrowing is accepted as long as it is consistent with a sound fiscal policy. Since 1923, when the concept of sound finance was brought into discussion for the first time, by J. M. Keynes, many economists have tried to investigate the issue of public debt sustainability. The hereby paper is designed to be an introductory guide in the theory and practice of fiscal sustainability. In this sense, I tried to make a compelling analysis of the evolution of the public debt among the advanced European economies. I have chosen these countries considering that European Union fiscal sustainability is still a much debated and controversial topic and that unsound fiscal policies of individual members could have adverse effects and harm other members' economies. For the purpose of this study I used annual data, spanned mostly on 1970-2012. The variables for each country have been analyzed through various methods of investigation: unit-root tests, cointegration tests and fiscal reaction function tests. The aim of this paper is therefore to investigate the evolution of the public debt and to establish how governments react to this evolution.
    Keywords: E62 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal policy ; public debt ; solvability ; intertemporal budgetary constraint ; non-Ponzi game condition ; fiscal rule
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: This paper will examine the sustainability of the central budget and its relation to the financial stability in the case of Indonesia. The standard model of fiscal sustainability is modified to cover some financial variables. The empirical estimates are done by employing several aspects of the time series econometric literature including unit roots, co-integration, and VAR (vector auto regression). Based on the fiscal reaction function estimates of quarterly data over the period of 1999-2009, the analysis present that the government's budget is unsustainable. This finding is supported by solvency test. The impulse response test indicates that financial variables innovation has large impact both on the debt and primary balance surplus dynamics and vise versa. Eventually, the debt and primary balance have a substantial impact on financial system. Thus, the fiscal sustainability (and, of course, solvency) is the key to achieve financial system stability.
    Keywords: E62 ; H62 ; H63 ; H68 ; ddc:330 ; debt ; primary Balance ; fiscal sustainability ; financial stability ; VAR
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Bucharest: Editura ASE
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: The present study broadly attempts to analyze the role of Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act in restoring fiscal balance in India. It analyses the need for fiscal rules and constraints in India. The study aims at finding out the major factor behind rising fiscal imbalance in India and to examine whether there is an electoral motive towards high fiscal deficit to GDP ratio or not. It also analyzes the effectiveness of various measures undertaken at the central and state level to inculcate fiscal discipline in the fiscal management. The study also makes an attempt to do a critical in depth reviews of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act and make an attempt at examining effectiveness and suitability of FRBM Act through a quantitative analysis. It also makes an attempt to suggest improvements in the fiscal monitoring mechanism in India. We employ Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to examine the impact of Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act on fiscal deficit in India using the data for the period 1980-81 to 2008-09. The regression results indicates that FRBM Act does not have a significant effect on the Gross Fiscal Deficit (GFD) to GDP ratio where as GDP (at factor cost) growth rate has a significant negative effect on the GFD to GDP ratio.
    Keywords: E62 ; H87 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal policy rules ; fiscal responsibility ; tax effort ; fiscal discipline ; fiscal deficit
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: This study determines the causal relationship between the expenditure and revenue of government in the case of Romania by using the autoregressive distributive lag approach to cointegration, variance decomposition and rolling regression method. The results indicate that bidirectional long run relationship exist between expenditure and revenue of government. The variance decomposition method suggests government revenue shock has more sharply impact on the government expenditure as compared to the shock in government expenditure and response of government revenue collection.
    Keywords: E62 ; C4 ; ddc:330 ; government revenue ; government expenditure ; cointegration
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: This paper tries to briefly analyze the characteristics of fiscal policy in the context of the actual crisis. We start from the ongoing discussion regarding the role of fiscal policy during the economic and financial crisis. We then focus on the case of CEE countries and on Romanian economy and analyze the way fiscal policy affects economies in the crisis context and its capacities to boost economy.
    Keywords: E32 ; E62 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal policy ; economic crisis ; monetary policy ; Euro area ; debt sustainability.
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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