Publikationsdatum:
2017-04-04
Beschreibung:
We produce a spatial probability map of vent
opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical
analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last
2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano
structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer
deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis
on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future
vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions,
we converted the geological and structural data in distinct
and weighted probability density functions, which were
included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain
the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive
vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing
through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on
the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow
the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the
latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible
areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions
of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault
and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased
susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava
flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision
makers.
Beschreibung:
This study was performed with the financial
support from the V3-LAVA project (DPC-INGV 2007–2009 contract).
Beschreibung:
Published
Beschreibung:
2083–2094
Beschreibung:
1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
Beschreibung:
3.2. Tettonica attiva
Beschreibung:
3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
Beschreibung:
3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
Beschreibung:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Beschreibung:
JCR Journal
Beschreibung:
restricted
Schlagwort(e):
Flank eruption
;
Dike
;
Volcano structure
;
Susceptibility map
;
Spatial clustering
;
Back analysis
;
04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
;
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
;
05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository-Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Materialart:
article
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