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  • Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía  (50)
  • La Habana  (22)
  • Barcelona: Elsevier España  (17)
  • Spanish  (89)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: The national statistical institutes face permanently the need to reform and update the statistical criteria and instruments for labor market analysis, as well as to adapt international recommendations for measurement. These processes pose important challenges regarding the comparability of information, necessary to analyze the labor market dynamics. This study presents a consistent methodological approach for the splicing of labor market aggregates based on microeconomic information from household surveys. We analyze the case of the national unemployment rate for Ecuador; assess the potential alternatives for simulation and define a consistent selection criterion for the prognosis and splicing of the series.
    Keywords: C25 ; J21 ; J24 ; J64 ; ddc:330 ; Unemployment ; splicing of labor indicators ; labor market ; labor surveys
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the innovation promotion programs carried by the National Research and Innovation Agency (ANII). A combination of non-experimental methods was used to quantify the effects of public support to innovation in three dimensions of the firms' behavior: innova - tion investment, innovation results and economic performance. The results show evidence of crowding-in of public support to innovation. Also, beneficiaries of the programs show larger probability of successfully introducing new products and processes. We do not find impact in the economic performance indicators of the firms.
    Keywords: D22 ; O38 ; C21 ; H43 ; H54 ; ddc:330 ; Impact evaluation ; innovation ; ANII ; Uruguay
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: In this paper, we discuss the management of monetary policy of the Latin American central banks that have fully established inflation targeting. An optimal monetary rule is estimated for these economies using the Generalized Method of Moments. This analysis allows us to conclude that these central banks have taken into account the economic growth, in addition to price stability. However, only Chile has taken into account the evolution of the exchange rate. Furthermore, Chile, Brazil and Peru have followed an asymmetric behavior, while Colombia and Mexico have adopted a linear monetary policy rule.
    Keywords: E52 ; E43 ; E51 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; Central Bank ; inflation ; monetary rules ; asymmetries
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 4
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: We analyze the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations, as well as episodes of financial instability and inflation, on inequality indicators in Chile for the period 1960-2014. The relationship between episodes of crisis and fluctuations on levels of inequality are estimated from an event study, finding that they are related to fluctuations in inequality. In addition, we perform econometric estimates where inequality indicators relate to different macroeconomic variables and educational performance. The main conclusions are that banking and inflation crises, as well as periods of severe cyclical contractions, tend to increase the levels of inequality in Chile.
    Keywords: E30 ; I30 ; D31 ; ddc:330 ; Economic crisis ; inequality ; income distribution
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 5
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: This paper looks for empirical evidence to show if a very interventionist government stimulates or not private investment in Latin America. Using the same model as Caballero-Urdiales y López-Gallardo (2012), we extend their analysis from five Latin-American countries to all Latin America. The results from our estimated elasticities show evidence in support of three hypothesis: (1) that tax burden (taxes on income and consumption) has significant effects on privateinvestment; (2) that public investment has a crowding out effect with private investment; (3) and that in order to stimulate private investment, the government should have very little intervention.
    Keywords: F21 ; H24 ; H25 ; H54 ; ddc:330 ; Private investment ; gross domestic produc ; public investment ; income tax ; value added tax
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 6
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: This paper develops a methodology using business intelligence (data warehouse) and OLAP tools (Online Analytical Processing) to match individuals from a household survey data to a census one. In order to geo-reference the household data, the method takes advantage of the geographical information of the census. Using the 2003 Household Survey and the 2002 Chilean Census of Population and Housing, the average household income is projected to intra-municipality levels and the results are compared to Elbers et al. (2003) methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology allows for taking into account and display the impact of intra-municipality heterogeneity and the spatial interaction among the spatial units.
    Keywords: C5, C63, C81 ; ddc:330 ; Spatial Matching ; Small Areas Estimation ; Household Surveys ; Household Income ; Business Intelligence
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 7
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: Taking as a reference a simple oligopoly model with differentiated products, in which there are three firms, the purpose of this paper is to complement the existing literature on mergers by proving that the traditional merger paradox can be avoided by assuming that, after the merger, the merging firms increase the existing bilateral product differentiation. In this context, it is proved that a merger could be welfare enhancing by increasing both consumers surplus and merging and non merging firms profits.
    Keywords: L00 ; L13 ; L20 ; ddc:330 ; Horizontal mergers ; product differentiation ; welfare
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: La calibración del modelo Nelson-Siegel para ajustarse a curvas de rendimientos soberanas se ha encontrado problemática, pues presenta correlación entre sus factores y genera funciones objetivas con múltiples óptimos locales. Estos problemas no han sido profundizados en el contexto colombiano, dándole poca importancia al proceso de calibración. En el presente trabajo se evalúan dos métodos diferentes del gradiente para resolver el problema de ajuste por mínimos cuadrados no lineales: el metaheurístico de evolución diferencial y el método de búsquedas incrementales sobre los parámetros no lineales. Se realizan comparaciones entre los resultados en términos del ajuste logrado, consistencia en los resultados (para el metaheurístico) y formas obtenidas para la curva. El mismo procedimiento es realizado para el modelo Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, evaluando la pertinencia de su uso dentro del mercado local.
    Description: Calibration of the Nelson-Siegel (NS) model to adjust to sovereign yield curves has been found to be problematic since the model exhibits a correlation between its factors, and generates objective functions with local multiple optima. These problems are often disregarded in the Colombian market, enough importance is not being given to the calibration process. This study aims to evaluate two non-gradient based methods for solving the non-linear least squares problem: the differential evolution metaheuristic and an incremental search procedure on the non-linear parameters. Comparisons of the results are made in terms of the achieved fit, consistency (for the metaheuristic) and the shapes obtained for the curves. The same procedure is carried out on the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson (NSS) model, evaluating the advisability of its use in the local market.
    Keywords: G12 ; G17 ; ddc:330 ; Búsqueda incremental ; Calibración ; Curva de rendimientos soberanos ; Evolución diferencial ; Metaheurístico ; Nelson-Siegel-Svensson ; Incremental search ; Calibration ; Sovereign yield curve ; Differential evolution ; Metaheuristic ; Nelson-Siegel-Svensson
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: El trabajo introduce la tasa interna de rendimiento promedio (TIRP) dentro del marco de la matemática borrosa (fuzzy) como método alternativo para estimar rendimientos en situaciones de ambigüedad. En la primera parte se desarrolla la TIRP y su versión borrosa como alternativa para determinar rendimientos bajo situaciones de ambigüedad. Seguidamente, con un caso hipotético, se ilustra la consistencia con el valor actual (VA) en el ordenamiento de proyectos frente a situaciones conflictivas. En caso de incertidumbre se demuestra la equivalencia de la TIRP calculada sobre los flujos de fondos esperados o como TIRP esperada. Finalmente, y como medida para estimar rendimientos promedios en situaciones difusas, se plantea la TIRP borrosa, comparando resultados con los métodos VA y TIR borrosa.
    Description: The paper introduces the average internal rate of return (AIRR) into the mathematic fuzzy's frame, like alternative method for estimating returns in ambiguity situations. In the first part it is developed the AIRR and its fuzzy version like an alternative of return determination under ambiguity situations. Next, with a hypothetical case, the consistency with the present value (PV) in the projects ranking at conflictive situations is illustrated. In case of uncertainty, the equality between the AIRR estimated over the expected cash flows or as expected AIRR is showed. Finally, and like a measurement for estimating average returns in vague situations, it is set out the fuzzy AIRR, comparing results with the fuzzy PV and IRR methods.
    Keywords: G30 ; G31 ; ddc:330 ; Tasa interna de rendimiento promedio ; Matemática borrosa ; Tasa interna de rendimiento promedio borrosa ; Average internal rate of return ; Fuzzy mathematics ; Fuzzy average internal rate of return
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal desarrollar un análisis de toma de decisiones bajo incertidumbre a través de la aplicación de opciones reales en la evaluación de inversiones en proyectos mineros. Asimismo, se propone estudiar el comportamiento de los precios del oro, para el caso específico de Perú, utilizando precios históricos y en base a procesos de precios de commodities. Para ello se ha utilizado el modelo Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. El principal resultado es que evaluar proyectos mediante el enfoque de opciones reales permite valorizar —en su real magnitud— los beneficios económicos asociados a un proyecto de inversión, debido a que se tiene en cuenta el trinomio rentabilidad-riesgo-flexibilidad. La metodología de valorización a través de opciones reales posibilita estructurar el pensamiento estratégico.
    Description: This study has as its main objective to develop an analysis of decision making under uncertainty using the real options application in the evaluation of investments in mining projects. It is also proposed to study the behaviour of gold prices, for the specific case of Peru, using historic prices and based on the commodity prices process. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model has been used for this. The main result is that to evaluate projects using the real options approach allows to evaluate –in their real magnitude– the financial benefits associated with an investment project, as it takes into account the trinomial of profitability-risk-flexibility. The assessment method using real options makes it possible to structure strategic thinking.
    Keywords: C63 ; G13 ; G31 ; ddc:330 ; Ornstein-Uhlenbeck ; Movimiento browniano ; Reversión a la media ; Opciones reales ; Oro ; Ornstein-Uhlenbeck ; Brownian movement ; Mean reversion ; Real options ; Gold
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Analizar los factores que influyen en la sostenibilidad es clave para llegar a alcanzarla. En base a la Teoría de los Recursos y las Capacidades (Grant, 1991), desarrollamos un modelo de gestión que determina los factores explicativos de la sostenibilidad de las instituciones microfinancieras (IMF). El modelo empírico se desarrolla aplicando análisis de componentes principales y regresión logística, sobre una muestra de 313 IMF, con 31 variables financieras agrupadas en seis componentes/factores que están teóricamente relacionadas con su autosuficiencia. Nuestros resultados muestran una relación significativa y positiva entre el tamaño y la eficiencia-productividad de las IMF con su sostenibilidad, presentando el factor riesgo de crédito una relación inversa con respecto a dicha sostenibilidad. Por tanto, sugerimos que las IMF que quieran continuar desarrollando su actividad bajo un enfoque de autosuficiencia, deben fomentar una estrategia de gestión orientada hacia: (1) el aumento de la eficiencia-productividad, (2) el control exhaustivo del riesgo de crédito y (3) el incremento del tamaño para la consecución de economías de escala. La capacidad predictiva del modelo es alta, con un área bajo la curva ROC (AUC) del 89.7%.
    Description: The analysis of the factors that influence sustainability is the key to achieving it. Based on the Theory of Resources and Capabilities (Grant, 1991), a management model that determines the explanatory factors of the sustainability of microfinance institutions (MFI) is developed. The empirical model is constructed by applying a principal component and logistic regression analysis using a sample of 313 MFI, with 31 finance variables, grouped into 6 components/factors that are theoretically associated with self-sufficiency. The results obtained showed a significant and positive relationship between size and the efficiency-productivity of the MFI and their sustainability, with the credit risk factor having an inverse relationship as regards that sustainability. Thus, it may be suggested that the MFI that wish to continue developing their activity using a self-sufficiency approach must promote a management strategy oriented towards: (1) an increase in efficiency-productivity, (2) the exhaustive control of credit risk and, (3) the increase in size in order to achieve economies of scale. The predictive capacity of the model is high, with an area under the ROC curve of 89.7%.
    Keywords: G21 ; ddc:330 ; Microfinanzas ; Sostenibilidad operativa ; Teoría del cambio organizacional ; Autosuficiencia ; Microfinance ; Operational sustainability ; Theory of organisational change ; Self-sufficiency
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 12
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: In the present article we develop a discrete-time methodology to compare frontend load and balance fees in the accumulation phase of a defined-contribution pension fund under the system of individual accounts. Additionally, using various methods, we study the effect of considering risk and density of contributions in the performance and suitability of the aforementioned types of fees. Finally, we perform a practical application of the methodology to the Peruvian Private Pension System.
    Keywords: G23 ; ddc:330 ; pension funds ; individual account ; front-end load fee ; balance fee
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 13
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper analyses the Spanish residential demand of a bundle of goods conforming the basic services of the households (i.e. electricity, natural gas and drinking water) in 2012. The analysis is made using a QUAIDS model modified in order to consider the censoring in the consumption of natural gas following the approach of Tauchmann (2010), one of the latest advances in this field. The results show that the demand for electricity and drinking water is less sensitive to the variations in prices and household's income than that of natural gas.
    Keywords: C3 ; Q2 ; Q3 ; Q4 ; ddc:330 ; electricity ; natural gas ; drinking water ; censored QUAIDS model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2019-03-22
    Description: This paper offers a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of eight popular forecasting methods: univariate, linear, discriminate and logit regression; recursive partitioning, rough sets, artificial neural networks, and DEA. Our goals are: clarify the complexity-effectiveness balance of each methodology; identify a reduced set of independent variables that are significant predictors whatever the methodology is; and discuss and relate these findings to the financial theory, to help consolidate the foundations of a theory of financial failure. Our results indicate that, whatever the methodology is, reliable predictions can be made using four variables; these ratios convey information about profitability, financial structure, rotation, and operating cash flows.
    Keywords: G33 ; C19 ; M4 ; ddc:330 ; Financial failure forecast ; multivariate methods ; artificial intelligence ; machine learning
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This research analyzes the potential effects that a redistributive fishing quota policy could have on the profits and employment of the artisanal fisher organizations. We use a multi-objective programming model and apply it to the common sardine and anchovies fisheries in the Biobío Region for year 2011. The results indicate the presence of trade-offs between the equity -profits and equity- employment objectives. Moreover, the results suggest the existence of widespread inefficiencies in the effort allocation within the organizations, independently of the weight given to the different objectives.
    Keywords: Q22 ; Q28 ; C61 ; ddc:330 ; collective rights ; trade-off ; multi-objective ; distribution ; artisanal fisheries
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 16
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: The role of the agricultural sector during the ISI period and the debate about the agricultural wage and the living conditions of the farm workers have a long historiography. But until today there is little information about workers' income in the long run. In this paper we want to reflect about the wage level reached during this period and for that we will present a new wage series for 1934-1973. We seek to analyze their behavior considering the sector labour productivity, its relation with industrial wages and the institutional frame in this period.
    Keywords: N36 ; N46 ; ddc:330 ; agricultural real wages ; agricultural workers ; ISI ; institutions ; payment in kind
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Si bien es amplia la literatura que se ha dedicado a estudiar los hechos estilizados en las series de los rendimientos, para el caso colombiano solamente existe un trabajo que documenta estos hechos. Alonso y Arcos (2006) documentaron la presencia de cuatro hechos estilizados en la serie de los rendimientos de la tasa de cambio y del principal índice accionario colombiano, empleando una muestra de rendimientos diarios para el período comprendido entre el 21 de enero de 1999 y el 31 de abril de 2005. Este documento tiene como objetivo continuar el estudio de la existencia de hechos estilizados en el comportamiento de los rendimientos del índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC). El estudio demuestra la existencia de cinco hechos estilizados en el comportamiento de esa serie en sus primeros 10 años. Para lograr este fin, se emplea una batería amplia de pruebas estadísticas que permiten brindar evidencia de la existencia de los siguientes hechos estilizados: I) No se presenta eficiencia suave del mercado; II) colas pesadas de la distribución de los rendimientos; III) normalidad agregada de la distribución de los rendimientos, IV) volatilidad no constante y agrupada de los rendimientos y V) efecto Taylor. Para el estudio se emplea una muestra del IGBC diario para los primeros años de transacciones; es decir, el período comprendido entre el 3 de julio de 2001 y el 5 de julio de 2011.
    Description: There are many studies published in the literature on stylized facts in financial time series. However, for the Colombian case there is only one work that documents the stylized facts of the returns. Alonso and Arcos (2006) documented the presence of four stylized facts in the exchange rate series and the principal Colombian Stock Exchange Index (IGBC), using a daily sample for the period from January 21, 1999 to April 31, 2005. The aim of this document is to present five stylized facts on the behavior of the IGBC returns in its first 10 years. Furthermore, a wider range of statistical test is used to support the existence of those stylized facts. Evidence is provided for the following stylized facts: I) no efficiency of the market; II) heavy tails of the distribution; III) aggregational Gaussianity; IV) volatility clustering and V) Taylor effect. In our case, the sample of the daily IGBC will be used for the period between July 3, 2001 and July 5, 2011.
    Keywords: A00 ; ddc:330 ; IGBC ; Colas pesadas ; Normalidad agregada ; Volatilidad no constante y agrupada ; Efecto Taylor ; IGBC ; Heavy tail ; Aggregational Gaussianity ; Volatility clustering ; Taylor effect
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: En este documento se propone un modelo binomial para valorar empresas, proyectando y condicionando escenarios de continuidad o liquidación de la firma. El modelo se basa en la Teoría de Opciones Reales para estimar el valor de la firma, que resulta de un balance explícito de las ventajas y riesgos de tomar deuda. El trabajo se estructura de la siguiente manera: Primeramente, la introducción y desarrollo del modelo teórico; luego se ilustra mediante un caso de aplicación, comparando los resultados obtenidos con el modelo de descuento de flujos de fondos. Se sensibilizan variables como: endeudamiento, tasa de impuesto y volatilidad para analizar el impacto en el valor de la empresa. Finalmente, se describen las ventajas del modelo propuesto.
    Description: This paper proposes a binomial model for company valuation, projecting scenarios of continuity or insolvency of the company, and comparing it with the discounted cash flow model. The Real Option Theory is used for estimating the value of the company, which results in an explicit trade-off between the advantages and the risk of taking on debts. The work is organized as follows: the model is introduced and developed, and then it is illustrated with the application of a case, comparing the results obtained with the discounted cash flow model. Variables like: leverage, tax rate and volatility are sensitive when analyzing the impact on the value of the company. Finally, the document describes the advantages of the proposed model.
    Keywords: A00 ; ddc:330 ; Opciones reales ; Binomial ; Deuda ; Valuación ; Real options ; Binomial ; Debt ; Valuation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: En el presente estudio se analiza si la actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones (M&A, por su sigla en inglés) transnacionales está influenciada por los estándares de gobierno corporativo de los países. Para lograrlo, se recurre al modelo gravitacional. Se toma la actividad proveniente de países de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OECD, por su sigla en inglés) y dirigida hacia seis países latinoamericanos y, como medida de gobierno corporativo, se usan los indicadores de Kaufmann, entre otros. Se encontró que el modelo gravitacional es explicativo del fenómeno y que a mejores estándares de gobierno corporativo en el país de origen y en el país de destino, mayor es la actividad de M&A.
    Description: In this study, and by making use of a gravity model, an analysis is made on whether transnational mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are influenced by the corporate governance standards of a country. The study only focuses on the M&A flows from the OECD countries towards Latinamerican economies, as well as using the Kaufmann indicators for measuring, among others, the corporate governance of a country. Evidence is found that the gravity model is explicative of the M&A flows, and that the better the level of corporate governance at both origin and destination countries, the greater is the M&As activity.
    Keywords: C23 ; F36 ; G34 ; ddc:330 ; Fusiones y adquisiciones ; Gobierno corporativo ; Modelo gravitacional ; Mergers and acquisitions ; Corporate governance ; Gravity model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: El subempleo o informalidad se muestra como una verdad acuciante en las naciones en desarrollo, y el Ecuador no es una excepción, menos aún la ciudad de Guayaquil. Este estudio descriptivo pretende indagar sobre la informalidad, su realidad y sus características, y especialmente su aporte al crecimiento económico y su potencialidad en el desarrollo futuro de la urbe, al verificar las variables que influyen en la no formalización de sus actividades. Los resultados sustentan que la informalidad puede verse como un mecanismo de emprendimiento o un fenómeno relacionado. Las actividades que los individuos llevan a cabo de manera informal repercuten, no en la medida esperada, en la producción y crecimiento de una ciudad o región.
    Description: Under-employment or informality is a compelling truth in developing countries, and Ecuador is no exception, least of all the city Guayaquil. This descriptive study attempts to investigate informality, its reality and characteristics, and especially the contribution to economic growth and its potential in future urban development, by determining the variables that influence the non-formalization of its activities. The results support that informality may be seen as an enterprise mechanism or associated phenomenon. The activities carried out by individuals in an informal way have an impact, not to the extent expected, on the production and growth of a city or region.
    Keywords: L26 ; ddc:330 ; Informalidad ; Emprendimiento ; Recaudación impositiva ; Crecimiento económico ; Informality ; Entrepreneurship ; Tax collection ; Economic growth
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper offers an exhaustive analysis of the effectiveness of several models and methodologies that are commonly used to forecast financial failure: Linear, MDA, Logit, and artificial neural network. Our main aim is to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses, in terms of technical reliability and error cost; to do so, models are estimated and validated, and then used to perform an artificial simulation to evaluate which of them causes the lower cost of errors. Reliability is examined in four forecast horizons, to collect evidences about temporal (in) stability. We also check the relative advantages of financial ratios-based models, versus audit-based forecast models. Our results suggest that all models attain a high performance rate; however, artificial neural networks' forecasts seem to be more stable, both in temporal and cross-sectional perspectives.
    Keywords: G33 ; C45 ; C89 ; ddc:330 ; financial failure ; financial difficulties ; forecast insolvency ; audit report
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 22
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: In this paper we analyze the mediating role of governance quality in the relationship between fiscal decentralization and regional disparities. Previous work has argued that fiscal decentralization has the potential to reduce income differences across regions but that this potential may not be realized because of governance problems associated with sub-national authorities. Our empirical evidence based on a sample of departments (regions) of Uruguay over the period 1990 - 2010 lends support to this idea. The empirical results show that fiscal decentralization promotes regional convergence, and this effect is boosted in high governance quality settings.
    Keywords: D73 ; H71 ; H73 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal decentralization ; regional disparities ; governance quality ; panel data ; Uruguay
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper focuses on the effect of educational and skill mismatches of workers on overall job satisfaction, and on certain job domains such as salary, number of working hours, promotion opportunities and type of activity performed. An ordered probit model is estimated by using a data set from the Survey of Quality of Working Life (ECVT). In addition to the variables related to these mismatches, other variables related to the characteristics of both the individual and the type of work are included. The results show that overeducated individuals show higher levels of dissatisfaction than those in which the fit is adequate. However, it also shows how individuals with a lower level of education than what would be required for the post do not reflect significant dissatisfaction levels. It is also evidence observed that individuals with less than the required skills are more dissatisfied than those with a proper matching. The results support the need to study both educational and skill mismatches separately.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; satisfaction ; educational match ; skill match
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: El sistema previsional en Chile es gestionado por entidades privadas, denominadas AFP, a las cuales cada trabajador debe cotizar un 10% de su renta en planes individuales de ahorro obligatorio para jubilación más una comisión variable a beneficio directo de la AFP. Por otro lado, el empleador cotiza un porcentaje de la remuneración del trabajador para financiar el seguro de invalidez y sobrevivencia por intermedio de la propia AFP. El afiliado puede libremente elegir el fondo en que integrará su cotización individual, según sea el nivel de riesgo a asumir y la rentabilidad esperada, entre los cinco fondos disponibles. Se espera que la AFP con la comisión cobrada por su gestión logre la mayor rentabilidad posible para sus afiliados, pero de acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos no se encuentra evidencia para afirmar irrefutablemente que las comisiones influyan en el comportamiento de las rentas de los distintos fondos.
    Description: The pension system in Chile is operated by private entities, called AFP, to which every worker must contribute 10% of their income on mandatory individual savings plans for retirement plus a variable fee to the direct benefit of the AFP. On the other hand, the employer quotes a percentage of worker's compensation insurance to fund disability and survivors through the AFP itself. The affiliate can freely choose the fund that will integrate its individual contribution, as the level of risk to take and the expected return to be obtained, among the five available funds. It is expected that the AFP achieves the highest possible return to their members with the commission charged by your management, but according to the results obtained, there is no evidence found to say conclusively that the commissions influence the behavior of the income of the various funds.
    Keywords: G23 ; ddc:330 ; Administradoras de fondos de pensiones ; Comisión de las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones ; Fondo de pensiones ; Afiliado ; Rentabilidad del fondo ; Pension fund managers ; Pension fund ; Affiliate ; Fund return
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Teniendo en cuenta el nuevo esquema de multifondos en Colombia, perteneciente al Régimen de Ahorro Individual, se realizó un análisis mediante la aplicación de herramientas estocásticas y actuariales, con el fin de determinar el momento en el cual un agente (de acuerdo con sus características sociales: género, expectativa salarial, momento en el que empieza a cotizar y probabilidad de cotización) debe realizar el traslado de su cuenta de pensiones entre los diferentes portafolios ofrecidos. Considerando la rentabilidad y el riesgo que desean asumir los agentes como elementos clave, en general se observa que los individuos deben permanecer un gran porcentaje de su vida laboral en el Fondo de Mayor Riesgo para alcanzar una mayor acumulación de capital financiero y aumentar la probabilidad de obtener una tasa de reemplazo razonable.
    Description: Taking into account the new Colombian multi-funds scheme of the Individual Benefits Plan, an analysis was made through the application of stochastic and actuarial tools with the purpose of determining the moment in which agents (according to their social characteristics: sex, income expectation, moment they begin to pay contributions, contribution probability) must transfer their retirement account into the different offered portfolios. Considering the profitability and the risk the agents want to assume, as key elements, it is generally observable that they must remain a great percentage of their working lives in the high-risk investment fund to achieve a greater financial capital accumulation and a greater probability to attain a reasonable replacement rate.
    Keywords: C15 ; G23 ; H55 ; ddc:330 ; Multifondos ; Tasa de reemplazo ; Fondos del ciclo de vida ; Valor en riesgo ; Trayectoria óptima ; Multi-funds ; Replacement rate ; Lifecycle funds ; Value at risk ; Optimal trajectory
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: En el presente artículo se analiza la rentabilidad histórica de las empresas que cotizan en la bolsa de valores de Colombia, desde enero de 2004 hasta junio de 2012, con el fin de determinar la posible presencia de una prima de riesgo en las empresas de menor tamaño con relación a las de mayor tamaño. Dicha prima se conoce como Efecto Tamaño y se ha encontrado que sigue siendo significativa después de ajustar los datos al riesgo por el modelo de valoración de activos (Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM). Los resultados obtenidos en el presente trabajo para el mercado de valores de Colombia no muestran la presencia de una prima de riesgo adicional debida al tamaño de las empresas, rechazando tanto el efecto tamaño como el efecto invertido.
    Description: In this paper we analyze the historical returns of the companies listed on the Colombian stock exchange, from January 2004 until June 2012, in order to determine the possible presence of a risk premium in smaller companies relative to larger ones. This premium is known as Size Effect and it has been found that it is significant after adjusting of risk by Capital Asset Pricing Model. The results obtained in this work for the stock market in Colombia do not show the presence of an additional risk premium due to the size of enterprises, rejecting both size effect and reverse size effect.
    Keywords: G14 ; ddc:330 ; Efecto tamaño ; Modelo de valoración de activos ; Anomalía del mercado financiero ; Size Effect ; Capital Asset Pricing Model ; Capital Market Anomaly
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Durante la crisis económica actual en el conjunto de países desarrollados se ha visto un alejamiento de flujos de la inversión extranjera directa (IED), mientras que en el conjunto de países en desarrollo y en transición, se ha registrado un aumento. En este escenario y a lo largo de los últimos cuatro años, varias empresas multinacionales (EMN) mexicanas han consolidado su presencia internacional, la cual se inició hace más de dos décadas. En este artículo mostramos, que la vinculación entre dos factores —el sector económico y la localización geográfica de la IED de las EMN mexicanas— explica las diferencias en sus resultados de operación corporativos durante los años de crisis. Estos han sido positivos, cuando las regiones de inversión están localizadas en Latinoamérica y Asia y en general negativas, cuando se trata de inversiones en sectores ligados a la construcción, localizados en Estados Unidos y/o Europa. Esta constatación con respecto a flujos de IED y los resultados de las EMN mexicanas tiene además consecuencias sobre la forma en que se abordan teóricamente los determinantes de localización de la IED. Se trabajó con una muestra de las 20 mayores EMN mexicanas y con datos directos obtenidos de la información financiera de las empresas y en encuestas aplicadas durante los últimos cuatro años.
    Description: During the global crisis, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has withdrawn from developed economies and has substantially increased in emerging and transitional economies. In this scenario, Mexican MNEs have been spreading during the last four years, after starting their internationalization two decades ago. In this paper, we show that the relationship between two factors— economic sector and geographical location of FDI — explains the difference in outcome of corporate operations during the crisis. While positive results have been found regarding investments in Latin America and Asia, less favorable results are registered in investments in Europe and the United States. These findings modify the theoretical approach on the “location determinants” of FDI. Our sources are enterprise's websites and direct surveys applied during the last four years for a sample of 20 of the largest MNEs in Mexico.
    Keywords: F21 ; F23 ; F61 ; M21 ; N16 ; P48 ; ddc:330 ; Inversión extranjera directa ; Empresas multinacionales ; Crisis global ; México ; Foreign Direct Investment ; Multinationals ; Global crisis ; Mexico
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Actualmente casi todos los envíos internacionales necesitan emplear más de un tipo de transporte desde su punto de origen hasta su destino final. Cada uno de los tipos mundiales de transporte de carga y pasajeros ha desempeñado un papel esencial en la facilitación de la diversificación geográfica del comercio. En este trabajo se evalúa, a través del método de Análisis de Componentes Principales, la competitividad del transporte internacional considerando, a su vez, las variables más importantes que inciden en este sector y el desempeño de las economías respecto de dichas variables. Se analiza la estructura del sistema de transporte internacional para veintinueve países, entre ellos siete de América Latina. Los resultados mostrados en el índice de competitividad del transporte internacional señalan que los países más competitivos en materia de transporte internacional son, en orden descendente, Hong Kong, Estados Unidos, Singapur, China, Suecia, España, Japón, Bélgica, Dinamarca y Canadá. El estudio destaca también que los países de América Latina con mayores puntuaciones en este rubro son Brasil, seguido de Panamá, Chile y Costa Rica.
    Description: Currently most of international shipments need to use more than one type of transportation from its point of origin to final destination. Each one of the types of global transport has played an essential role in facilitating geographic diversification. In this paper we evaluate, through Principal Component Analysis methodology, the international transport competitiveness considering the most important variables that affect this sector and the economic performance of these variables on transportation, analyzing the structure of the international transport system of twenty-nine countries, including seven Latin American countries. The results shown in the competitiveness index of international transportation indicate that the most competitive countries in this field are: USA, Hong Kong, Singapore, China, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Belgium, Denmark and Canada. Highlighting that, the countries of Latin America with the highest scores in this category are Brazil, followed by Panama, Chile and Costa Rica.
    Keywords: F02 ; F12 ; F16 ; F40 ; M16 ; ddc:330 ; Transporte internacional ; Competitividad ; Comercio exterior ; Análisis de Componentes Principales ; International transport ; Competitiveness ; Trade ; Principal Component Analysis
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Las empresas deciden hacerse públicas por diversas razones, entre ellas podemos mencionar temas de liquidez, obtención de financiamiento y la disminución del costo de capital. Una vez que fue valuada la empresa y que el intermediario financiero fijó un precio para las acciones, las compañías salen al mercado a un precio de oferta determinado. Al finalizar el primer día de cotización, la compañía presenta un precio de cierre. En el marco internacional, la tendencia para las ofertas públicas iniciales (IPO, por sus siglas en inglés) es tener un precio de cierre mayor al de oferta. Lo anterior es conocido bajo el término underpricing. El grado de underpricing varía en los mercados. En estudios realizados en Estados Unidos, se han encontrado rendimientos del 36%, mientras que en China se ha tenido un underpricing del 298% y en Alemania del 46%. En esta investigación se analizarán las IPO emitidas en México en el período del 2000 a Mayo de 2012, buscando determinar si en el mercado mexicano existe una situación de underpricing en las IPO.
    Description: Companies decide to go public for several reasons, among them we can mention liquidity issues, obtaining financing, and lower capital cost. Once the company was valued and the financial intermediary sets a price for the shares, the companies come to the market to a particular offer price. At the end of the first day of trading, the company presents a closing price. In the international context, the tendency for the initial public offering (IPO) is having a closing price greater than the issued. This is known under the term underpricing. The degree of underpricing varies across markets. Studies in the United States, found 36% yields, while China has had an underpricing of 298% and 46% in Germany. This research will analyze the IPO's issued in Mexico in the period from 2000 to May 2012, seeking to determine if a situation of underpricing in IPO's exists in the Mexican market.
    Keywords: G00 ; G30 ; ddc:330 ; Oferta pública inicial ; Acciones ; Initial public offering ; Shares ; Underpricing
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: El documento busca llamar la atención sobre la necesidad de discutir –teórica y prácticamente– los desafíos que deben ser asumidos por la gestión pública en el manejo de la elaboración presupuestal por resultados y la rendición de cuentas, especialmente considerándolas herramientas útiles en el proceso de asegurar un «buen gobierno». Para ello, se ha realizado un análisis conceptual de ambas herramientas. Primero, se presenta el enfoque de gestión por resultados y los retos que implica este nuevo marco para la gestión pública en relación a la optimización del uso de recursos públicos, la garantía de un proceso transparente y equitativo y la mejora en el desempeño de las entidades públicas, convirtiéndose en la base para una mejor rendición de cuentas –segundo aspecto analizado en el documento–. La rendición de cuentas se convierte en un desafío al constituirse como medio efectivo de vigilancia y sanción entre la sociedad y el gobierno, a través del cual los funcionarios públicos deben responder, explicar y justificar sus actos, sujetos a un orden jurídico ético y al cumplimiento de objetivos. Es aquí donde la participación directa de la sociedad civil es fundamental para la evaluación de los resultados. El documento analiza estos conceptos en un momento en el que nuestro país tiene como prioridad nacional la mejora de la calidad del gasto público. Por eso, el enfoque de resultados en la elaboración presupuestal se ha considerado, por los responsables de la política económica, como un mecanismo clave para su consecución, y a su vez la rendición de cuentas se vincula –particularmente– con el impulso que se pretende dar a la política social, como un elemento de importancia en la gestión para el manejo de fondos públicos, que puede ayudar a garantizar la eficacia y transparencia de estos procesos.
    Description: Document searches draw attention to the need to discuss, theoretically and practically, the challenges that must be faced by public administration in the management of preparing a budget by results and accountability, particularly when taking into account the useful tools in the process of ensuring “good government”. To do this, a conceptual analysis of both tools was performed. Firstly, the management by results approach is presented, along with the challenges that this new framework involves for the public administration in relation to the optimisation of the use of public resources, to ensure a transparent and equitable process and to improve the performance of public bodies, becoming the basis for better accountability (the second aspect analysed in the document). Accountability becomes a challenge, on being an effective means of monitoring and sanctions between society and government, through which the public servants have to respond, explain and justify their actions, subjected to an ethical and juridical order, to the completing of objectives. It is here where the direct participation by the civil society is fundamental for the evaluation of the results. The document analyses these concepts at a time when our country has the improvement in the quality of public spending as a national priority. Thus, the results approach in the budget preparation has to be considered, by those responsible for economic policy, such as a key mechanism to achieve this, and in turn accountability is particularly linked, to the push that it attempt to give to social policy, as an important element in the administration for the management of public funds, which can help to ensure the effectiveness and transparency of these processes.
    Keywords: H53 ; ddc:330 ; Nueva gestión pública ; Presupuesto participativo ; Presupuesto por resultados ; Rendición de Cuentas ; New public administration ; Participatory budget ; Budget by results ; Accountability
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: The present paper estimates the effect over participation outcomes of the new reform to the pension system made in Chile in 2008, using a difference in difference matching estimation. The main results found that the treated group shows a higher withdrawal from the labor market and that they worked an average of 8 percentage points (pp) fewer months than the control group in 2009. The treated group also contributed 18 pp fewer months than the control group, and they have, on average, 6 pp more months in inactive status. Looking at the difference in per capita income, the treated group has an average of US$34 more per month than the control group in 2009.
    Keywords: J38 ; I21 ; C21 ; ddc:330 ; scholarships ; upper secondary education ; propensity score matching ; Differential impacts ; EU-SILC-06
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  • 32
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper evaluates the impact caused by attaching a personalized pension projection (PPP), to the annually report of pension savings. This PPP shows the revenues obtained by the workers when postponing their retirement three years after the legal age for retirement in the Chilean pension system. The method to correct the endogenous treatment which was used it was a quasi-experimental method using instruments such as geographical and demographical information and the number of post offices by Region. The results show that the PPP's reception once has not significant effect on the retirement decision. However, when the treatment is intensified it begins to be taken into consideration. The PPP's reception during two consecutive years, 2005 and 2006, significantly reduced the probability of retirement decision during the year 2011. Finally, the results show that the treatment has much more effects in individuals with higher pension savings.
    Keywords: J14 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; personal pension projection ; retirement decision ; unobserved heterogenety ; treatments parameters
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  • 33
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: The importance of Long Distance Commuting (LDC) has increased as a result of the continuous reduction of transport costs. This paper formalizes the relationship between LDC and wage through a job search model where a commuting time variable is included. The paper proposes that LDC be compensated in wage and be increasing in distance, and that the regions which receive more commuters pay a higher premium wage. The results suggest an average premium of 19% for LDC. However, the applicable rate depends on the workplace location of each commuter, and thus it might be as high as 40%.
    Keywords: J61 ; R23 ; ddc:330 ; long distance commuting ; Coarsened Exact Matching ; spatial wage differentials
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: We study the effect of a household subsidy to induce the adoption of more efficient and less polluting wood combustion technologies. We compare, through numerical simulations, several subsidy designs with respect to the impact on aggregate emissions, costs, and cost-effectiveness indicators. Two variables that turn out to be important for the performance of a subsidy program are the remaining time that an existing equipment can be used and the access of the households to credit to fund the co-payment of the equipment. We observe that for different regulatory designs and/or different cost analysis, the performance of a subsidy program based on the cost-effectiveness analysis differs.
    Keywords: Q48 ; H23 ; Q53 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; environmental policy ; cost-effectiveness ; economic incentives ; urban pollution
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Estimating the specific effects of a complete reform of the public transit system of a large city is a difficult task due to the confounding effects that will usually mask the impact of interest. In this study we estimate the impact of the complete reform of the public transport system in Santiago, Chile, named Transantiago, on a specific aspect of interest: particulate matter air pollution levels in the city. Using a regression model with daily panel data from air quality monitoring stations, we conclude that Transantiago reduced the daily average MP10 concentration levels in at least 3.9 μg/m3. This generates health benefits estimated to be close to US$ 200 million a year in our medium scenario, 12% of which correspond to lower public sector health expenditure. If the data for the first year of operation of the system (when it was not yet in steady-state) are excluded the estimated reduction in MP10 levels is even higher. Other effects of Transantiago, positive as well as negative, would need to be estimated in order to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of the reform.
    Keywords: H51 ; L92 ; Q53 ; R41 ; R48 ; ddc:330 ; atmospheric pollution ; public transportation ; public health ; Chile
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Es objeto de discusión si la política de incentivos destinada al sector minero es o no conveniente. Los partidarios defienden que gracias a esta los municipios tienen mayores oportunidades para desarrollarse, mientras que los detractores argumentan que no tiene sentido orientar recursos hacia un sector sin futuro. En este trabajo nos hemos planteado hacer una evaluación del impacto que generaron las ayudas concedidas en el seno del Plan del Carbón 1998–2005, el Plan Nacional de Reserva Estratégica de Carbón 2006–2012 y los Fondos Estructurales de la Unión Europea 2000–2006 en doce variables socioeconómicas seleccionadas en los 105 municipios mineros de Castilla y León entre 1998 y 2010.
    Description: It is discussed whether the policy of incentives to the mining sector is or is not appropriate. Proponents argue that thanks to this the municipalities have greater opportunities to develop, while detractors argue that it makes no sense to channel resources into an industry without a future. In this paper we have proposed to evaluate the impact of the aid generated within the Coal Plan 1998–2005, the National Strategic Coal Reserve Plan 2006–2012, and the Structural Funds of the European Union 2000–2006 in twelve selected socioeconomic variables in the 105 municipalities of Castilla y León between 1998 and 2010.
    Keywords: C38 ; R11 ; R12 ; R58 ; ddc:330 ; Política de incentivos ; Sector minero ; Castilla y León ; Incentive policy ; Mining ; Castilla y León
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2018-08-23
    Description: Se evalúa el rendimiento ex-dividendo en acciones colombianas entre 1999 y 2007, periodo que incluye la conformación en julio de 2001 de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, resultado de la integración de tres bolsas previamente existentes. Contrario a la hipótesis de eficiencia de mercado, se encontraron rendimientos exdividendo positivos y estadísticamente significativos, similares a los evidenciados en diversos mercados internacionales. Se comprueba que los rendimientos ex-dividendo no son explicados en su totalidad por costos de transacción ni por efectos impositivos. Una estrategia limitada de captura de dividendos, substrayendo dichos costos, habría entregado rendimientos positivos y económicamente importantes entre 2006 y 2007 en las acciones más liquidas del mercado. Sin embargo, estos rendimientos tienden a disminuir en el período de estudio, consistentes con un avance hacia una mayor eficiencia en el mercado accionario colombiano después de la integración. Este estudio pone de relieve la importancia de considerar las fricciones en estudios académicos de eficiencia y de evaluación de estrategias especulativas.
    Description: We study the ex-dividend return in the Colombian stock market between 1999 and 2007, period that includes the merger of the former three Colombian stock exchanges in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia in July 2001. Contrary to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we found positive and statistically significant ex-dividend returns in the sampled period, only in part explained by transaction cost and tax effects. Moreover, even subtracting transaction costs and tax effects, a dividend capture strategy would have gotten positive and economically sizable returns between 2006 and 2007 in the most liquid stocks. The decrease of those ex-dividend returns is also reported along the studied period, providing evidence of increasing informational efficiency after the merger of the three stock exchanges. Methodologically, this study highlights the importance of accounting for frictions in both academic efficiency studies and in testing speculative strategies by practitioners.
    Keywords: G11 ; G14 ; ddc:330 ; Mercados financieros ; Eficiencia de mercado ; Rendimiento ex-dividendo ; Costos de transacción ; Estrategias especulativas ; Efectos impositivos ; Microestructura de mercados ; Financial markets ; Market efficiency ; Ex-dividend return ; Transaction costs ; Speculative strategies ; Tax effects on returns ; Market microstructure
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper presents a model of political competition to explore the effect that the ideological distance between two political parties has over the provision of public goods. The main result argues that the ideological distance between parties and citizens has a negative relationship with the provision of public goods. In contrast with other models, the result is explained, neither by cooperation problems nor conflict between polarized groups, but because of the political profitability of clientelistic employment.
    Keywords: D72 ; D73 ; H11 ; H41 ; ddc:330 ; polarization ; political competition ; government efficiency ; government employment ; clientelism
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  • 39
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Taking as a reference a model in which there are a public firm, a national private firm and a foreign private one, it is analyzed both mergers sustainability and their relative effects on welfare. It is proved that the merger between the public firm and either the national or the international private firm is preferred, from a welfare point of view, to the merger between the two private firms if the degree of privatization is relatively low and the foreign ownership of the merged firm is relatively high.
    Keywords: L00 ; L13 ; L33 ; ddc:330 ; mixed oligopoly ; mergers ; Oligopol ; Multinationales Unternehmen ; Fusion
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: In this paper we study the presence of calendar anomalies in the main Latin- American stock markets, for the 1993 to 2007 period. The literature has shown that the detection of those effects may depend on error distribution assumptions (Baker et al., 2008), and that their existence could be due to a problem of data snooping (Sullivan et al., 2001). In response to these problems, Cho et al. (2007) introduced a robust non-parametric test, which was adopted in this paper. Results show that calendar anomalies: Monday and Weekend Effects are present in the main Latin-American stock markets, and they are statistically significant.
    Keywords: F3 ; F4 ; G1 ; ddc:330 ; Day of the Week Effect ; stochastic dominance ; emerging markets ; Aktienmarkt ; Kalendereffekt ; Schwellenländer ; Lateinamerika
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 41
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This study measures the impact of changes in the income determinants on inequality in the 1990 to 2003 period, in order to answer the question of why income distribution as a whole has not changed. The methodology utilized are micro-simulations of income distribution, which is the most appropriate technique for analyzing the relationship between changes in determinant factors and changes in income inequality. It is analyzed the role of returns, participation rates, occupational choices, schooling endowments, subsidies, pensions and household size. The inertia shown by inequality reflects the interplay of factors that cancel each other out, others that operate slowly over time, and the emergence of new developments that affect distribution. Furthermore, there are no clear indications that this situation will change over the next few years. Progress in this area will require a more active public policy than in the past.
    Keywords: D3 ; J2 ; J3 ; ddc:330 ; microsimulation ; income distribution ; inequality ; pensions ; labor participation ; returns to schooling ; Einkommensverteilung ; Chile
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 42
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Using a gravity model, this article presents an analysis of aggregate trade flows aimed at identifying China's impact on Latin America's trade. The results obtained indicate that: i) China's growth in the last years implied a growing supply of exports to this market from most countries in the World, including that of Latin American countries; ii) at the aggregate level, there was no indication that Chinese exports to third markets were crowding out LAC exports to those countries; and iii) a positive relationship between imports from China and exports to third markets was only found for the Southern Cone countries.
    Keywords: F10 ; F12 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; bilateral trade ; gravity model ; poisson regression ; China ; Latin America ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Gravitationsmodell ; China ; Lateinamerika
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Within the area of Behavioral game theory, we focus on a specific context, namely, on a game we called the Alternative traveler's dilemma. In this context, we observe that participants tend to choose strictly dominated strategies. In order to explain similar tendencies in other games, researchers in the area have postulated either cognitive biases or motivational factors. We postulate a psychological factor called 'goal accessibility bias' to explain the tendencies at stake. This factor involves both cognitive and motivational aspects. We survey a series of experimental results that favor such an explanation over more frugal alternatives.
    Keywords: C7 ; C91 ; ddc:330 ; game theory ; experiments ; maximization ; alternative traveler's dilemma ; goals ; Spieltheorie ; Verhaltensökonomik ; Urlaubsverhalten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: In the Latin American context, Chile has the highest level of per capita income and the human development index, though the distribution of income is quite unequal. Unlike Uruguay, Chile has one of the more unequal income distributions of the region. In 2003, Chile had Gini Coefficient of 8.5 points higher than Uruguay. Using micro/simulations, the analysis shows that most of the difference regarding income distribution comes from the wealthier households, particularly those that belong to the top 2%. Those households get the greatest proportion of resources coming from non-labor income. At the same time, the difference in returns to higher education explains another 20% of the income differences between Chile and Uruguay. Social conditions such as social security benefits and the participation of women in the labor market are not significant to explain the differences between these countries. Finally, this paper shows that national account adjustment to income information in Chilean households´ survey explains a third of the Gini coefficient gap between Chile and Uruguay, without the national account adjustment, the income distribution gap among both countries would diminish in three points from earlier estimation. Even though this significative reduction the reasons to explain the gap would remain identical than previous analysis.
    Keywords: D3 ; J2 ; J3 ; ddc:330 ; microsimulation ; income distribution , inequality ; pensions ; labor participation ; returns to schooling ; Einkommensverteilung ; Disparitätsmaß ; Regionale Einkommensverteilung ; Mikrosimulation ; Chile ; Uruguay
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 45
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: In this article we develop a microeconomic framework to study the relationships among privatization, competition for deposits and performance in banking. Particularly, we analyze banking privatization when competitive strategies of the Cournot and Stackelberg types are allowed. Our findings show that some conditions are necessary to justify it under the following criteria: (i) efficiency, (ii) market power/financial stability and (iii) consumption availability for depositors. They also show that privatizations are relatively easy to justify when leader-follower relationships are allowed in the banking system. Even government revenues, due to privatization, are higher when these relationships exist.
    Keywords: G21 ; D43 ; D92 ; ddc:330 ; banking ; privatization ; competition ; performance ; deposits
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 46
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This article characterizes the properties of the compensation scheme of delegated portfolio management that would lead to the selection of high risk-high return portfolios. In particular, it provides conditions under which a non-monotone payment structure emerges as an optimal contract, which rewards extreme results and punishes moderate ones.
    Keywords: D86 ; G11 ; G20 ; G30 ; J33 ; M52 ; ddc:330 ; executive compensation ; delegated portfolio management ; nonmonotone incentive schemes ; non-monotone likelihood ratio property
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 47
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This paper analyzes entry deterrence strategies at sequential multi-unit Englishtype repeated auctions, motivated by entry deterrence observed at a series of yearly auctions of fishing rights occurring since the early 1990s in the Chilean Sea Bass industrial fishery. It analyzes parametric configurations under which incumbent firms may have followed non-cooperative entry deterrence strategies or else may have colluded for that purpose. A two-stage competition model is developed. In the first stage there occurs sequential auctioning of multiple fishing rights; in the second stage, production rights are used to compete in a homogeneous-good Cournot market. The analysis focuses on the relationship between the number of incumbents, sources of competitive advantage for them (relative to potential entrants) and the number and productive size of the multiple production rights in sale. The core of the analysis lies in answering how does the divisibility of the object(s) in sale affect the possibilities of incumbent firms for deterring the entry of new rivals.
    Keywords: D2 ; D4 ; Q2 ; ddc:330 ; collusion ; entry deterrence ; repeated auctions ; free riding.
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 48
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This paper is about a model of Bertrand competition in a homogeneous-good market with free entry of identical firms and variable returns to scale. If the optimum number of active firms in the market is two or more, and the number of active firms is equal to that optimum number, then Bertrand equilibrium exists for that optimum number, and it does not exist if the number of active firms is less than the optimum. The model, however, does not rule out the existence of Bertrand equilibria with more active firms than the optimum number. Finally, when the optimum number of active firms in the market is one, Bertrand equilibrium does not exist.
    Keywords: D43 ; L13 ; ddc:330 ; Bertrand equilibrium ; variable returns to scale ; free entry ; number of firms
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 49
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This paper makes a quantitative assessment of possible reforms to the Chilean tax system. The simulations are based on a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that is calibrated with the input-output matrix 2003. For each scenario is considered a cut effective rate of value added tax and an increase in the richest quintile's effective rate of income tax by 20% or 40% respectively. The results of the model are transferred to micro data to analyze the effects disaggregated. Finally, I conclude that cutting the VAT and raising income tax only would generate bounded improvements in poverty and income distribution.
    Keywords: D63 ; E62 ; H22 ; H24 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; tax reform ; income inequality ; CGE ; microsimulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: We study the cost-effectiveness of a transferable emissions permit system (TEPS) vis a vis a system of emissions standards. Our analysis includes along with abatement costs, the costs of enforcing the system to induce compliance. Further, the analysis considers complete and incomplete information. The numerical simulations are performed for the case of fixed sources operating under the Emissions Compensation Program (ECP) in Santiago, Chile. The results suggest that a TEPS is not able to induce compliance at minimum enforcement costs, but this regulatory system allow the regulator to achieve the environmental target with minimum aggregate compliance costs.
    Keywords: L51 ; Q28 ; K42 ; K32 ; ddc:330 ; environmental policy ; cost-effectiveness ; enforcement costs incomplete information ; Umweltpolitik ; Emissionshandel ; Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse ; Unvollkommene Information ; Santiago (Chile)
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 51
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: Monthly wage series with quarterly periodicity between December 1994 and December 2004 for thirteen regions in Chile are presented in this paper. These series are based on the information recollected by the Superintendencia de Fondos de Pensiones (Pensions Fund Superintendence), but are corrected for truncation and censoring bias. The comparative analysis of corrected and non-corrected series indicates that the series show a statistically diferentiated behavior. The non-corrected wage series are not good predictors of the corrected series. Thus, to develop regional wage analysis, based on this information source, it is preferable to use the corrected series presented in this paper.
    Keywords: J31 ; R11 ; R23 ; ddc:330 ; regional wages ; estimation ; truncation ; censored ; Regionale Lohnstruktur ; Chile
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 52
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: In this work we extend a De Jure measure of capital account restrictions, previously assembled by Miniane (2004) for 34 economies, to a set of 181 countries for the period 1996-2005. Additionally, having in mind the pitfalls of this indicator, we propose two new measures. The first excludes prudential regulation and the second weights the indicator by a proxy of enforcement. This group of indicators allows academics and policymakers to evaluate and analyze the restrictions to capital account transactions for a large group of economies.
    Keywords: G15 ; Q30 ; ddc:330 ; international financial integration ; capital controls ; Kapitalbilanz ; Welt ; Chile
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 53
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: In the period 2000 - 2006, municipal or public schools reduced its enrollment in 186,000 students (13%) in Chile. Meanwhile, privately subsidized schools, receiving the same type of funding, increased their enrollment in 386,000 students (38%). In this paper we distinguish demand factors, associated with parents' decisions, and supply factors, those associated with owners' decisions, to explain the change in the education structure en Chile. We found evidence that the asymmetry in the institutional constraints explain only part of the evolution. Other factors, associated with municipal decisions, which in turn are explained by the asymmetric financing of different schools, explain the main part of the change.
    Keywords: I21 ; I28 ; ddc:330 ; public education ; descentralization
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 54
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2015-09-10
    Description: We analyze the effect of introducing a minimum mandatory health insurance plan in a segmented market in which high risks are affiliated to the public insurer and low risks to the private ones (market segmentation is endogenously obtained in our model). We assume both types of insurers must provide the basic plan, insurance is compulsory, and there is a minimum premium regulation. When we compare the equilibriums pre and post introduction of the basic health insurance plan, we find that an implicit subsidy mechanism operates that gives some solidarity to the system, even though no explicit risk compensation mechanism is introduced. For this implicit subsidy mechanism to operate, it is fundamental that not only the price of the basic plan is regulated but also the quality of the services included in such plan, and that the regulator is able to guarantee private insurers do offer the minimum plan to all risks.
    Keywords: I11 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; health insurance ; minimum basket of services ; managed competition
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This research aims to find the determinants of participation on social organizations in Chile through a social capital approach, as well as to evaluate the existence of a positive effect between participation and household welfare. In the case of economic and local organizations several regressions for participation and income were run. Due to the existence of endogenity of income in participation equation, it was estimated a simultaneous model for recreational organizations. The proposed model includes Two Stage Probit Least Squares estimates suitable to correct for simultaneity bias when one of the variables is continuous and the other is dichotomous. Econometric results point out that age, schooling, house ownership, place of residence and individual perception of both social intercourse and safety in their neighborhoods have a meaningful effect on participation. The study also reported on the positive effect between participation in economic organizations and household welfare.
    Keywords: D6 ; N3 ; O1 ; Z0 ; ddc:330 ; social capital ; social organizations ; welfare effects
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This research tries to assess the dependents and Long Term Care costs for next years in Spain. To do this, it has been taken account data from the Survey on Disabilities, Impairments and Health Status and population forecasts estimated by INE, the legal rules passed between 2006 and 2008, and some former studies about individual costs of long term care. The key point in this study is the concept of cost per point of scale. Once calculated, forecasts till 2050 have been estimated. Finally, the results have been compared with those included in the Long Term Care Act.
    Keywords: H53 ; J11 ; J14 ; ddc:330 ; long term care ; cost ; forecasts
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 57
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: Chile's recent success in reducing p