ALBERT

Description: In the last years, the concept of tipping points received increasing recognition in social science and rose on the political agenda. Identifying tipping points would allow researchers to identify the point in time in which a transition happens, and to understand the processes of overcoming lock-in mechanisms and trigger deliberate tipping an existing system into a qualitatively new state. Because tipping points bring about rapid systemic change, it is desirable to further understand how tipping points may be triggered to accelerate the transformation of social and economic systems. There is little doubt that tipping points exist in both social and socio-technical systems because we can observe that systems and societies are fundamentally different today than they were in the past. However, despite a growing body of literature, there remain many open questions how to conceptualise and ultimately operationalize social tipping points. This also stems from a lack of empirical studies and insights observing tipping points in social contexts. In the Tipping.Plus project we addressed this gap with a literature review and empirical case studies investigating tipping dynamics from a public policy and governance perspective. In the literature review we explored definitions, characteristics, and the application of the concept and notion of tipping points in political and governance theories and contexts. In the second step, we conducted an empirical study investigating the socio-economic transition processes of the two German neigbouring cities Essen and Duisburg, which have both phased out their coal industries, as part of the wider structural change in the Ruhr Region. We focused on (political) interventions and their effects on the cities’ development trajectories in the last 30+ years to identify differences in outcome as a function of policy interventions and/or contextual differences. Apart from identifying the key development drivers, we investigate whether either city crossed a tipping point in their transition process (yet), away from coal towards a low carbon but still prosperous future (Mey and Lilliestam 2022). In the following we synthesise the findings of this work and our observations and experiences in order to contribute to the overall Tipping.Plus Integration Framework and Social Theory on social tipping points in energy transitions.

Description: In this report, we identify the needs of the energy model users and the users of energy model results in policy, industry, civil society, and science, both in the present and future. Based on a comprehensive literature review, qualitative interviews in five European jurisdictions, a survey, and a workshop, we identify what different user groups need from energy models: What types of questions, input, and results are useful to them? We also identify user needs regarding the modeling platform of SENTINEL: How do we need to define such a platform to make it worthwhile for potential users?

Description: This report contributes to the modelling work in SENTINEL and beyond in two main ways. First, we provide three social storylines that are closely linked to different governance logics and build on observed social and political drivers and barriers in the European energy transition. This is different than most other storylines used for modelling, because ours are based on governance patterns and normative assumptions of a “good future”, and not on the more common geopolitical or techno-economic storyline assumptions. Second, we provide quantitative, empirical data for several important social/political parameters that can be used together with the storylines or as separate building blocks to answer specific research questions with energy models.

Description: The decarbonisation of the European energy system is a large-scale transformation, which demands not only for a techno-economic feasibility analysis, but also for an assessment of the social and political feasibility and environmental impacts. However, most energy models are not able to fully represent the social and political developments and dynamics of the energy transition, such as preferences, acceptance and behavioural changes of citizens and decision-makers. To address this shortcoming, we developed QTDIAN (Quantification of socio-Technological DIffusion and sociAl constraiNts) − a toolbox of qualitative and quantitative descriptions of socio-technical and political aspects of the energy transition. In this deliverable, we present and discuss the linking of QTDIAN with the energy demand models DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM, and the energy system model Euro-Calliope. The purpose of linking the models is to integrate the outputs from QTDIAN into the energy models to allow for an empirically based and thus more realistic analysis of energy system trajectories, with a higher relevance for informing pending policy decisions. The central question we address is: How can the social storylines and quantifications from QTDIAN be transferred into energy demand and systems models? We show several ways how QTDIAN’s quantified variables allow for a direct application of the storylines into the modelling process of Euro-Calliope, DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM. The qualitative storylines ensure that modellers do not create technically feasible energy systems that are outside the realms of social or political realities. In addition, the quantitative data can be used to improve the accuracy and especially the policy relevance of the modelling results by providing specific estimates for social and political variables and constraints. However, not all aspects of QTDIAN could be integrated because not all aspects of the storylines could be quantified, and the models to which QTDIAN links in this deliverable are not able to capitalise on all QTDIAN outputs. We identified further requirements for data, including different temporal and spatial scales. We conclude that the linking of QTDIAN with energy demand and energy systems models is a promising approach to better represent socio-political drivers and barriers for technology changes and climate change mitigation measures. We will run the models with the integrated linkage with QTDIAN to evaluate the outcomes and added value of the linking in the context of SENTINEL case studies (WP7).

Description: In this paper, we investigate the socio-economic transition processes of Essen and Duisburg as part of the wider structural change in the Ruhr Region. In the two case studies, we explore causes and effects of the cities’ development trajectories in the last 30+ years, seeking to identify differences in outcome as a function of the interventions and/or contextual differences. We analyse events, interventions and their impacts on the social and economic systems of the two cities across time. Apart from identifying the key development drivers, we investigate whether either city crossed a tipping point in their transition process (yet), away from coal towards a low-carbon but still prosperous future. Therefore, we specifically evaluate the cities’ development trajectories by seeking evidence for “no”, “incremental” or “radical” changes in a set of indicators. Here, we have taken a long temporal perspective, because trajectories of and trajectory changes in social systems are specifically visible in demographic dynamics, economic structures and political arrangements across time.

Description: This report contributes to the modelling work in SENTINEL and beyond in three main ways. First, we provide three social storylines that are closely linked to different governance logics and build on observed social and political drivers and barriers in the European energy transition. This is different than most other storylines used for modelling, because ours are based on governance patterns and normative assumptions of a “good future”, and not on the more commonly used geopolitical or techno-economic storyline assumptions. Second, we provide quantitative, empirical data for several important social/political parameters that can be used together with the storylines or as separate building blocks to answer specific research questions with energy models. Third, to test the usefulness of QTDIAN, we have soft-linked QTDIAN with the energy demand models DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM, the energy system design model Euro-Calliope, and indirectly with the economic model WEGDYN. Based on feedback from the modelling exercises, we have revised QTDIAN and publish now this updated report 2.0 to improve its usefulness for a more realistic analysis of potential future energy systems.

Description: Trematode prevalence and abundance in hosts are known to be affected by biotic drivers as well as by abiotic drivers. In this study, we used the unique salinity gradient found in the south-western Baltic Sea to: (i) investigate patterns of trematode infections in the first intermediate host, the periwinkle Littorina littorea and in the downstream host, the mussel Mytilus edulis, along a regional salinity gradient (from 13 to 22) and (ii) evaluate the effects of first intermediate host (periwinkle) density, host size and salinity on trematode infections in mussels. Two species dominated the trematode community, Renicola roscovita and Himasthla elongata. Salinity, mussel size and density of infected periwinkles were significantly correlated with R. roscovita, and salinity and density correlated with H. elongata abundance. These results suggest that salinity, first intermediate host density and host size play an important role in determining infection levels in mussels, with salinity being the main major driver. Under expected global change scenarios, the predicted freshening of the Baltic Sea might lead to reduced trematode transmission, which may be further enhanced by a potential decrease in periwinkle density and mussel size.

Description: The last 85,000 years were characterized by high climate and environmental variability on the Yucatán Peninsula. Heinrich stadials are examples of abrupt climate transitions that involved shifts in regional temperatures and moisture availability. Thus, they serve as natural experiments to evaluate the contrasting responses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We used ostracodes and pollen preserved in a 75.9-m-long sediment core (PI-6, ~85 ka) recovered from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala, to assess the magnitude and velocity of community responses. Ostracodes are sensitive to changes in water temperature and conductivity. Vegetation responds to shifts in temperature and the ratio of evaporation to precipitation. Ostracodes display larger and more rapid community changes than does vegetation. Heinrich Stadial 5-1 (HS5-1) was cold and dry and is associated with lower ostracode and vegetation species richness and diversity. In contrast, the slightly warmer and dry conditions during HS6 and HS5a are reflected in higher ostracode species richness and diversity. Our paleoecological study revealed the greatest ecological turnover for ostracodes occurred from 62.5 to 51.0 ka; for pollen, it was at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. Future studies should use various climate and environmental indicators from lake and marine sediment records to further explore late glacial paleoclimate causes and effects in the northern neotropics.

Description: Although it is generally known that a combination of abiotic and biotic drivers shapes the distribution and abundance of parasites, our understanding of the interplay of these factors remains to be assessed for most marine host species. The present field survey investigated spatial patterns of richness, prevalence and abundance of parasites in Mytilus galloprovincialis along the coast of the northern Adriatic Sea. Herein, the relationships between biotic (host size, density and local parasite richness of mussel population) and abiotic (eutrophication and salinity) drivers and parasite richness of mussel individuals, prevalence and abundance were analysed. Local parasite richness was the most relevant factor driving parasite species richness in mussel individuals. Prevalence was mainly driven by eutrophication levels in 3 out of 4 parasite species analysed. Similarly, abundance was driven mainly by eutrophication in two parasite species. Mussel size, density and salinity had only minor contributions to the best fitting models. This study highlights that the influence of abiotic and biotic drivers on parasite infections in mussels can be differentially conveyed, depending on the infection measure applied, i.e., parasite richness, prevalence or abundance. Furthermore, it stresses the importance of eutrophication as a major factor influencing parasite prevalence and abundance in mussels in the Adriatic Sea

Description: Spatially variable basal conditions are thought to govern how ice sheets behave at glacial time scales (〉1000 years) and responsible for changes in dynamics between the core and peripheral regions of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. Basal motion is accomplished via the deformation of unconsolidated sediments, or via sliding of the ice over an undeformable bed. We present an ice sheet sliding module for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) that takes into account changes in sediment cover and incorporates surface meltwater. This model routes meltwater, produced at the surface and base of the ice sheet, toward the margin of the ice sheet. Basal sliding is accomplished through the deformation of water saturated sediments, or sliding at the ice-bed interface. In areas with continuous, water saturated sediments, sliding is almost always accomplished through sediment deformation. In areas with incomplete cover, sliding has a stronger dependence on the supply of water. We find that the addition of surface meltwater to the base is a more important factor for ice sheet evolution than the style of sliding. In a glacial cycle simulation, our model causes a more rapid buildup of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.