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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (14)
  • 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
  • Acoustic signals
  • Multiple Sclerosis
  • Springer Berlin Heidelberg  (11)
  • Copernicus Publications  (3)
  • Digilabs Pub., Bari, Italy  (3)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • MDPI Publishing
  • Public Library of Science
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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2020-11-26
    Beschreibung: We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located 〈20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabi- listic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra load- ing during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley repre- sents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 771
    Beschreibung: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): BET_VH ; TITAN2D ; TEPHRA2 ; Probabilistic volcanic hazard ; Multi-hazard assessment ; El Misti Arequipa ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-25
    Beschreibung: Uncertainties in modelling volcanic hazards are often amplified in geographically large systems and in volcanoes which have a diverse eruption history that comprises variable eruption compositions and styles from different vent locations. The large ~ 700 km2 Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is a large silicic caldera complex in a geodynamic region of New Zealand which has displayed a range of eruption styles and compositions over its current phase of activity (26 ka - present), including one basaltic maar-forming eruption, one basaltic Plinian eruption, and nine rhyolitic Plinian eruptions. All three of these eruption styles have occurred within the past 3.5 ky, and any of these styles could occur in the event of a future eruption. The location of a future eruption is also unknown. Future vents could potentially open in one of three different possible areas of the OVC: the Tarawera linear vent zone (LVZ) (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), the Haroharo LVZ (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), or outside of these LVZs (1 eruption over the past 26 ky). A future rhyolitic or basaltic Plinian eruption from the OVC is likely to generate widespread tephra fall in loads that will cause significant disruption and socio- economic impacts throughout the surrounding region. Past OVC tephra studies have focused on evaluating hazard from a rhyolitic Plinian eruption at select vent locations in the OVC's Tarawera LVZ. Here, we expand upon these past studies by evaluating tephra hazard for all possible OVC eruption vent areas and for both rhyolitic and basaltic Plinian eruption styles, and exploring how these parameters influence tephra hazard forecasts. Probabilistic volcanic hazard model BET_VH and advection-diffusion tephra hazard model TEPHRA2 were used to assess the hazard of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra from both basaltic Plinian and rhyolitic Plinian eruption styles, occurring from within the Tarawera LVZ, the Haroharo LVZ, and other potential vent areas within the caldera. We present the results of these analyses as a first-order tephra hazard assessment for the entire OVC. Our results highlight the importance of considering all the potential vent locations of a volcanic system, in order to capture the full eruption catalogue in analyses (e.g., 11 eruptions over 26 ky for the OVC, versus only 5 eruptions over 26 ky for the Tarawera LVZ), as well as the full potential distribution of tephra hazard. Although the Tarawera LVZ has been prominently discussed in studies of OVC hazard because of is recent activity (1886 and ~1315 AD), we find that, in the event of future eruption, the likelihood of a vent opening within the Haroharo LVZ (last eruption 5.6 ka) is equivalent (〈 1% difference) to that for the Tarawera LVZ (31.8% compared to 32.5%). We also find that an eruption from within the Haroharo LVZ presents a relatively higher hazard to several localities, such as the town of Kawerau, where the average absolute probability of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra is 1.3 times greater than for an eruption from within the Tarawera LVZ. While the absolute probabilities of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra in the next one year from a basaltic Plinian eruption are on average 7.2 times lower than for a rhyolitic Plinian eruption throughout the surrounding region, our results suggest that the hazard posed by a basaltic Plinian eruption does contribute to the overall OVC tephra hazard, raising absolute probabilities for the entire OVC by an order of 0.14, which may have implications when considering sensitive decision-making thresholds.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 38
    Beschreibung: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): PVHA ; Okataina Volcanic Centre ; BET_VH ; TEPHRA2 ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-06-25
    Beschreibung: By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1km x 1km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current Contingency Plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 705-723
    Beschreibung: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): Auckland Volcanic Field ; Base surge ; Bayesian event tree ; Volcanic hazard ; Cost benefit analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-05-17
    Beschreibung: Stochastic Quantization (SQ) is a method for the approximation of a continuous probability distribution with a discrete one. The proposal made in this paper is to apply this technique to reduce the number of numerical simulations for systems with uncertain inputs, when estimates of the output distribution are needed. This question is relevant in volcanology, where realistic simulations are very expensive and uncertainty is always present. We show the results of a benchmark test based on a one-dimensional steady model of magma flow in a volcanic conduit.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 49-59
    Beschreibung: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Beschreibung: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Beschreibung: N/A or not JCR
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): volcano physics ; conduit dynamics ; probabilities ; mixed deterministic-probabilistic approach ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: The Florina basin, being the main commercial source of CO2 in Greece, represents a good natural analogue for the study of the impact of geologic carbon storage. It is part of a NNW-SSE trending graben filled with ~600 m Plio-Pleistocene fluvial and lacustrine deposits. The area is characterized by the upflow of great quantities of geogenic CO2 probably associated to presently extinct Quaternary volcanic activity. The gas originates mainly from crustal sources but has also a minor (~10%) mantle contribution. This strong upflow of nearly pure CO2 can be recognized in industrially exploitable gas reservoirs, high pCO2 shallow groundwaters and surface gas manifestations. But the increased CO2 content has a deleterious impact on groundwater quality. Due to the increased aggressiveness of the low-pH CO2-rich waters with respect to the aquifer rocks, EU drinking water limits are exceed for many parameters (e.g. Electric conductivity, pH, Na+, SO42-, F-, Al, B, Ba, Fe, Mn and Ni). Considering the additional impact of widespread agricultural activities, which is recognizable in sometimes elevated NO3- contents, only few of the sampled waters (4 out of 40) could be used for potable purposes. Aquifer waters are also characterized by high REE contents with ΣREE up to ~12 µg/l. Shale-normalized profiles show positive La and Y anomalies and Ce negative anomalies probably indicating a main derivation from iron oxyhydroxide dissolution. The positive Eu anomaly evidences also carbonate dissolution while the enrichment in HREE is probably due to the abundant presence of HCO3-, which increases HREE solubility through complexation. Future developments of carbon capture and storage programs in the nearby sedimentary basin of Ptolemais and Servia have to carefully take in account the possible deterioration of their groundwater resources due to CO2 leaks from the storage reservoirs.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: Bari, Italy
    Beschreibung: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): Trace elements ; REE ; CCS natural analogues ; Florina ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.06. Water resources ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: Poster session
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.
    Beschreibung: This study was performed with the financial support from the V3-LAVA project (DPC-INGV 2007–2009 contract).
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 2083–2094
    Beschreibung: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Beschreibung: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Beschreibung: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Flank eruption ; Dike ; Volcano structure ; Susceptibility map ; Spatial clustering ; Back analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unbekannt
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strat- egy requires a scientific assessment of the future evo- lution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic pre- dictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all avail- able information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to pri- oritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time–space–magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1777-1805
    Beschreibung: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): eruption forecasting ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: To better understand the mechanisms leading to different radon background levels in volcanic settings, we have performed two long-term deformation experiments of 16 days using a real-time setup that enables us to monitor any variation of radon activity concentration during rock compression. Our measurements demonstrate that, in the case of highly porous volcanic rocks, the emanating power of the substrate changes as a function of the volcanic stress conditions. Constant magmatic pressures, such as those observed during dike intrusions and hydrothermal fluid injections, can result in pervasive pore collapse that is mirrored by a significant radon decrease until a constant emanation is achieved. Conversely, repeated cycles of stress due to, for example, volcano inflation/deflation cycles, cause a progressive radon increase a few days (but even weeks and months) before rupture. After rock failure, however, the formation of new emanation surfaces leads to a substantial increase of the radon signal. Our results suggest that surface deformation in tectonic and volcanic settings, such as inflation/ deflation or constant magmatic pressures, have important repercussions on the emanating power of volcanic substrates.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 751
    Beschreibung: 2R. Laboratori sperimentali e analitici
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: restricted
    Schlagwort(e): Radon monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Volcanic and geothermal areas are one of the major natural sources of sulphur gases to the atmosphere. Hydrogen sulphide (H2S) is a toxic gas mainly associated to geothermal systems while sulphur dioxide (SO2) is released in huge quantities from volcanoes characterized by open conduit activity. Apart from being one of the most impressive geodynamic expressions, volcanoes are also an important tourist attraction. During the summer season the number of tourists visiting the crateric areas each day is on average many tens at Stromboli, hundreds at Vulcano, Santorini and Nisyros and thousands at Etna. Touristic exploitation of active volcanic areas cannot exempt from warranting a reasonable security to the visiting persons. But while many risks in these areas have been since long time considered, gas hazard, a very subtle risk, is often disregarded. The atmospheric concentrations and dispersion pattern of naturally emitted SO2 were measured at three volcanoes of southern Italy (Etna, Vulcano and Stromboli) while that of H2S at four volcanic/geothermal areas of Greece (Sousaki, Milos, Santorini and Nisyros). Measurements were made with a network of passive samplers positioned at about 1.5 m above the ground, which gave time-integrated values for periods from few days to 1 month. Samplers were placed in zones of the volcanoes with high tourist frequentation. Measured concentrations and dispersion pattern depend on the strength of the source (craters, fumaroles), meteorological conditions and geomorphology of the area. At Etna, Vulcano, Stromboli and Nisyros measured concentrations reach values that are absolutely dangerous to people affected by bronchial asthma or lung diseases. But considering that these are average values over periods from few days up to one month, concentrations could have reached much higher peak values dangerous also to healthy people. The present study evidences a peculiar volcanic risk connected to the touristic exploitation of volcanic areas. Such risk is particularly enhanced at Etna where elderly and not perfectly healthy people can easily reach, with cableway and off-road vehicles, areas with dangerous SO2 concentrations.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: Bari, Italy
    Beschreibung: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): sulphur gases ; passive samplers ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: Oral presentation
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Biomonitoring may be defined as the use of organisms and biomaterials (biomonitors) to obtain informations on certain characteristics of a particular medium (atmosphere, hydrosphere etc.). In particular, mosses accumulate large amounts of trace metals, making them good bioaccumulators to estimate atmospheric pollution. The moss-bags technique, introduced in the early 1970’, has become very popular. Such active biomonitoring technique is particularly useful in highly polluted areas and has been extensively used in industrial and/or urban areas to examine deposition patterns and to recognize point sources of pollution. The main objective of this study, which represents the first application of the moss-bags technique in an active volcanic area, was to test its efficacy in such environment. Complementary objectives were: to determine the different behaviour and the areal dispersion of volcanogenic elements emitted from Mt. Etna; to characterize the morphology and mineralogy of particles transported in the plume-system, basing on microscopy investigation. A mixture of Sphagnum species was picked in a clean area, treated in laboratory (rinsed, dried and packed) and exposed in field for 1 month. Sites were chosen considering the prevailing wind at Mt. Etna’s summit. Milled samples were analyses for major and trace elements concentrations, after microwave digestion (HNO3 + H2O2), by ICP-MS and ICP-OES techniques. Morphology and mineralogy of volcanic particulate were investigated by using a SEM with EDS. Analyses clearly showed the efficacy of the moss-bags technique also in this peculiar environment. Several elements were strongly enriched in the mosses exposed to the volcanic emissions. The highest enrichment was measured close to the summit crater, but evidences of metals bioaccumulation were also found in down wind sites, at several km from the volcanic source. The accumulation factor (exposed/unexposed moss) allowed us to distinguish a group of elements (Tl, Bi, Se, Cu, As, Cd, S), which are highly mobile in the high temperature volcanic environment. Also alkali metals showed a significant increase in their concentrations, probably because of their affinity for the halide species carried by the volcanic plume. Microscopic observations evidenced sulphate and halide crystals on particles trapped by the mosses. Mosses exposed at sites directly fumigated by the volcanic plume showed crystal growth also directly on the moss surface.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: Bari, Italy
    Beschreibung: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Beschreibung: open
    Schlagwort(e): biomonitoring ; moss-bags ; trace elements ; Etna ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: Poster session
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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