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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: CO2 Capture & Storage (CCS) is presently one of the most promising technologies for reducing anthropogenic emissions of CO2 . Among the several potential geologi- cal CO2 storage sites, e.g. depleted oil and gas field, unexploitable coal beds, saline aquifers, the latter are estimated to have the highest potential capacity (350-1000 Gt CO2 ) and, being relatively common worldwide, a higher probability to be located close to major CO2 anthropogenic sources. In these sites CO2 can safely be retained at depth for long times, as follows: a) physical trapping into geologic structures; b) hy- drodynamic trapping where CO2(aq) slowly migrates in an aquifer, c) solubility trap- ping after the dissolution of CO2(aq) and d) mineral trapping as secondary carbon- ates precipitate. Despite the potential advantages of CO2 geo-sequestration, risks of CO2 leakage from the reservoir have to be carefully evaluated by both monitoring techniques and numerical modeling used in “CO2 analogues”, although seepage from saline aquifers is unlikely to be occurring. The fate of CO2 once injected into a saline aquifer can be predicted by means of numerical modelling procedures of geochemical processes, these theoretical calculations being one of the few approaches for inves- tigating the short-long-term consequences of CO2 storage. This study is focused on some Italian deep-seated (〉800 m) saline aquifers by assessing solubility and min- eral trapping potentiality as strategic need for some feasibility studies that are about to be started in Italy. Preliminary results obtained by numerical simulations of a geo- chemical modeling applied to an off-shore Italian carbonatic saline aquifer potential suitable to geological CO2 storage are here presented and discussed. Deep well data, still covered by industrial confidentiality, show that the saline aquifer, includes six Late Triassic-Early Jurassic carbonatic formations at the depth of 2500-3700 m b.s.l. These formations, belonging to Tuscan Nappe, consist of porous limestones (mainly calcite) and marly limestones sealed, on the top, by an effective and thick cap-rock (around 2500 m) of clay flysch belonging to the Liguride Units. The evaluation of the potential geochemical impact of CO2 storage and the quantification of water-gas-rock reactions (solubility and mineral trapping) of injection reservoir have been performed by the PRHEEQC (V2.11) Software Package via corrections to the code default ther- modynamic database to obtain a more realistic modelling. The main modifications to the Software Package are, as follows: i) addition of new solid phases, ii) variation of the CO2 supercritical fugacity and solubility under reservoir conditions, iii) addi- tion of kinetic rate equations of several minerals and iv) calculation of reaction sur- face area. Available site-specific data include only basic physical parameters such as temperature, pressure, and salinity of the formation waters. Rocks sampling of each considered formation in the contiguous in-shore zones was carried out. Mineralogy was determined by X-Ray diffraction analysis and Scanning Electronic Microscopy on thin sections. As chemical composition of the aquifer pore water is unknown, this has been inferred by batch modeling assuming thermodynamic equilibrium between minerals and a NaCl equivalent brine at reservoir conditions (up to 135 ̊C and 251 atm). Kinetic modelling was carried out for isothermal conditions (135 ̊C), under a CO2 injection constant pressure of 251 atm, between: a) bulk mineralogy of the six formations constituting the aquifer, and b) pre-CO2 injection water. The kinetic evolu- tion of the CO2 -rich brines interacting with the host-rock minerals performed over 100 years after injection suggests that solubility trapping is prevailing in this early stage of CO2 injection. Further and detailed multidisciplinary studies on rock properties, geochemical and micro seismic monitoring and 3D reservoir simulation are necessary to better characterize the potential storage site and asses the CO2 storage capacity.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna (Austria)
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: open
    Keywords: CO2 storage ; Geochemical modeling ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.06. Thermodynamics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.03. Groundwater processes ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.01. Geochemical exploration ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Abstract
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-04-17
    Description: We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60 S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved datacoverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10 %. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.
    Description: Published
    Description: 375–393
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Antarctic bedrock topography ; Antarctic mass balance ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.04. Ice ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.05. Ice dynamics ; 02. Cryosphere::02.02. Glaciers::02.02.06. Mass balance
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-11-23
    Description: Abrupt climate change in the past is thought to have disrupted societies by accelerating environmental degradation, potentially leading to cultural collapse. Linking climate change directly to societal disruption is challenging because socioeconomic factors also play a large role, with climate being secondary or sometimes inconsequential. Combining paleolimnologic, historical, and archaeological methods provides for a more secure basis for interpreting the past impacts of climate on society. We present pollen, nonpollen palynomorph, geochemical, paleomagnetic and sedimentary data from a high-resolution 2700 yr lake sediment core from central Italy and compare these data with local historical documents and archeological surveys to reconstruct a record of environmental change in relation to socioeconomic history and climatic fluctuations. Here we document cases in which environmental change is strongly linked to changes in local land management practices in the absence of clear climatic change, as well as examples when climate change appears to have been a strong catalyst that resulted in significant environmental change that impacted local communities. During the Imperial Roman period, despite a long period of stable, mild climate, and a large urban population in nearby Rome, our site shows only limited evidence for environmental degradation. Warm and mild climate during the Medieval Warm period, on the other hand, led to widespread deforestation and erosion. The ability of the Romans to utilize imported resources through an extensive trade network may have allowed for preservation of the environment near the Roman capital, whereas during medieval time, the need to rely on local resources led to environmental degradation. Cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age led to a breakdown in local land use practices, widespread land abandonment and rapid reforestation. Our results present a highresolution regional case study that explores the effect of climate change on society for an underdocumented region of Europe.
    Description: Published
    Description: 72 - 94
    Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo
    Description: 3A. Ambiente Marino
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Central Italy ; Mediterranean environments ; Society and climate ; Paleoenvironmental change ; Pollen ; Paleomagnetism ; Geochemistry ; Historical documents ; Late Holocene ; Roman Empire ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.03. Pollution ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.03. Climate Indicators ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.06. Paleoceanography and paleoclimatology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.06. Paleomagnetism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.07. Rock magnetism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-06-13
    Description: Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.
    Description: Published
    Description: 211-230
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: precipitation extremes ; La Plata Basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Patagonia Argentina is a key area for the study of sea level changes in the southern hemisphere, but the availability of reliable sea level markers in this area is still problematic. In fact the storm deposits (beach ridge) commonly used here to reconstruct past sea level oscillations introduce a wide error. Along the Puerto Deseado coast (Santa Cruz), morphometric analyses of 11 features were carried out using traditional measurement tools and a digital software-based method (tested on one selected feature) with the aim to investigate the possibility of their use as sea level markers. By undertaking accurate topographic profiles we identified the relationship between notches and current sea level. In detail, we identified two clusters of notch retreat point elevations, with a very low internal variability. The lower was located a little below the mean high tide level (mHT) and the upper located at least 0.5m above the maximum high tide level (MHT). Field observations of tidal levels and the position of notches suggest that the lower notches are active and the upper are inactive. This study on the abrasive notches attests their quality as sea level markers and opens up the use of fossil abrasive notches as palaeo sea level markers because the error linked to these features is substantially smaller than that introduced by beach ridges commonly used in the study area
    Description: Published
    Description: 1550 – 1558
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: notch; rocky coast; sea level marker; Patagonia; Argentina ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Stratigraphic, morphologic and radiocarbon data from Puerto Deseado coastal area (Santa Cruz Province, Argentina) indicate that the Holocene coastline formed in response to the discontinuous aggradation of coarse gravely beaches since c. 6300 cal. yr BP related to a progressive falling of relative sea level. Beach ridge crests crudely approximate to the sea level showing at least three steps of aggradation and relative sea-level lowering. Two inactive abrasive notches at c. 7.9 and 3.4 m a.s.l. have recorded this sea-level trend, suggesting two important phases when sea level was stationary. This allows the estimation of a rate of relative sea-level fall in the last c. 3500 years of c. 1.8 mm/yr. Moreover, notches and morphological data indicate that the crest of the beach ridges exceeded the sea-level height by c. 2 ± 0.5 m. This value provides a reasonable regional estimate to be applied to produce comparable relative sea-level curve for Atlantic Patagonia coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 307-317
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: abrasive notches, Argentina, beach ridges, middle to late Holocene, Patagonia, relative sea level ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-06-09
    Description: In this paper we have put forward a Bayesian framework for the analysis and testing of possible non-stationarities in extreme events. We use the extreme value theory to model temperature and precipitation data in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania. Temporal trends are modeled writing the location parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution in terms of deterministic functions of explanatory covariates. The analyses are performed using synthetic time series derived from a Regional Climate Model. The simulations, performed in an area around the Dar es Salaam city, Tanzania, take into account two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our main interest is to analyze extremes with high spatial and temporal resolution and to pursue this requirement we have adopted an individual grid box analysis approach. The approach presented in this paper is composed of the following key elements: (1) an advanced Bayesian method for the estimation of model parameters, (2) a rigorous procedure for model selection, and (3) uncertainty assessment and propagation. The results of our analyses are intended to be used for quantitative hazard and risk assessment and are presented in terms of hazard curves and probabilistic hazard maps. In the case study we found that for both the temperature and precipitation data, a linear trend in the location parameter was the only model performing better than the stationary one in the areas where evidence against the stationary model exists.
    Description: This research has been developed in the framework of the FP7 European project CLUVA (Climate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), Grant No. 265137. This research has been funded by the FP7 European project CLUVA (Climate change and Urban ulnerability in Africa).
    Description: Published
    Description: 289-320
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Non-stationary extreme events ; Climate change ; Multi-hazard ; Bayesian inference ; Extreme precipitation ; Extreme temperature ; Dar es Salaam ; Tanzania ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.05. Models and Forecasts ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.02. General circulation ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of obser- vations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal corre- lates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 775-785
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Decadal prediction 􏰁 Atlantic MOC 􏰁 Predictability 􏰁 Multi-model comparison ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-04
    Description: Aerosol optical properties have been measured on the island of Lampedusa (35.5°N, 12.6°E) with sevenband multifilter rotating shadowband radiometers (MFRSRs) and a CE 318 Cimel sunphotometer (part of the AERONET network) since 1999. Four different MFRSRs have operated since 1999. The Cimel sunphotometer has been operational for a short period in 2000 and in 2003–2006 and 2010–present. Simultaneous determinations of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the two instruments were compared over a period of almost 4 years at several wavelengths between 415 and 870 nm. This is the first longterm comparison at a site strongly influenced by desert dust and marine aerosols and characterized by frequent cases of elevated AOD. The datasets show a good agreement, with MFRSR underestimating the Cimel AOD in cases with low Ångström exponent; the underestimate decreases for increasing wavelength and increases with AOD. This underestimate is attributed to the effect of aerosol forward scattering on the relatively wide field of view of the MFRSR. An empirical correction of the MFRSR data was implemented. After correction, the mean bias (MB) between MFRSR and Cimel simultaneous AOD determinations is always smaller than 0.004, and the root mean square difference is ≤0.031 at all wavelengths. The MB between MFRSR and Cimel monthly averages (for months with at least 20 days with AOD determinations) is 0.0052. Thus, by combining the MFRSR and Cimel observations, an integrated long-term series is obtained, covering the period 1999–present, with almost continuous measurements since early 2002. The long-term data show a small (nonstatistically significant) decreasing trend over the period 2002–2013, in agreement with independent observations in the Mediterranean. The integrated Lampedusa dataset will be used for aerosol climatological studies and for verification of satellite observations and model analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2725-2737
    Description: 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: 5IT. Osservazioni satellitari
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: remote sensing, aerosol retrievals, sunphotometers, mfrsr, climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.01. Composition and Structure ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.08. Instruments and techniques
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-11-09
    Description: Ensembles of retrospective 2-month dynamical forecasts initiated on 1May are used to predict the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period 1989–2005. The subseasonal predictions (SSPs) are based on a coupled general circulation model and recently they have been upgraded by the realistic initialization of the atmosphere with initial conditions taken from reanalysis. Two objective large-scale methods based on dynamical circulation and hydrological indices are applied to detect the ISM onset. The SSPs show some skill in forecasting earlier-than-normal ISM onsets, while they have difficulty in predicting late onsets. It is shown that significant contribution to the skill in forecasting early ISM onsets comes from the newly developed initialization of the atmosphere from reanalysis. On one hand, atmospheric initialization produces a better representation of the atmospheric mean state in the initial conditions, leading to a systematically improved monsoon onset sequence. On the other hand, the initialization of the atmosphere allows some skill in forecasting the northward propagating intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. The northward propagating intraseasonal modes trigger the monsoon in some early-onset years. The realistic phase initialization of these modes improves the forecasts of the associated earlier-than-normal monsoon onsets. The prediction of late onsets is not noticeably improved by the initialization of the atmosphere. It is suggested that late onsets of the monsoon are too far away from the start date of the forecasts to conserve enough memory of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) anomalies and of the improved representation of the mean state in the initial conditions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 778-793
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: indian summer monsoon ; onset ; seasonal predictions ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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