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  • American Geophysical Union (AGU)  (109,002)
  • 1
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print: 1(1).1978 – 2(2).1983 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, s. Katalog)
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0162-0118
    Topics: Geosciences
    Parallel titles: Earthquake Research in China
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  • 2
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1(1).1998 – 8(1).2008
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 1524-4423
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.2009 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU 〈Washington, DC〉
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Keywords: Umweltmodellierung ; Meteorologie ; Klimatologie
    Acronym: JAMES
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  • 4
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 110(1).2005 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-8953
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-8961
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 102(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9380
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9402
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 12(1).1997 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0883-8305
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9186 , 2572-4525
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 7
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 35(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0034-6853 , 0096-1043 , 8755-1209
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9208
    Topics: Physics
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  • 8
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1(1).2003 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 1539-4964
    Electronic ISSN: 2325-4432
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.2003 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 1542-7390
    Electronic ISSN: 1542-7390
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU) | Wiley-Blackwell
    Online: 1(1).2014 –
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU) , Wiley-Blackwell
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU 〈Washington, DC〉
    Electronic ISSN: 2333-5084
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Keywords: Geophysik ; Planetologie ; Astronomie
    Acronym: ESS
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  • 11
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 24(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 12
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.2000 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU , Geochemical Society
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-2027
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Physics
    Keywords: Geochemie ; geochemistry ; Geophysik ; geophysics ; United States of America ; USA
    Acronym: G-cubed
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  • 13
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1(1).2000 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-2027
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 14
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 11(1).1997 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0886-6236
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9224
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 15
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1896 – 82.1977
    Print: 54.1949 – 82.1977 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 37/5 - 38/5)
    Print: 56.1951 – 86.1981 (Location: A62, MOP)
    Formerly as: Terrestrial Magnetism ; Terrestrial Magnetism and Atmospheric Electricity  (1899–1948)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) publishes original scientific research on the physical, chemical, and biological processes that contribute to the understanding of the Earth, Sun, and solar system and all of their environments and components. JGR is currently organized into seven disciplinary sections (Atmospheres, Biogeosciences, Earth Surface, Oceans, Planets, Solid Earth, Space Physics). Sections may be added or combined in response to changes in the science.
    Print ISSN: 0022-1406 , 0096-8013 , 0148-0227 , 0272-7528
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202
    Topics: Geosciences
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res
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  • 16
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 102(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 17
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 83.1978 –
    Print: 83.1978 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 39/4 - 40/4)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / B  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Solid Earth serves as the premier publication for the breadth of solid Earth geophysics including (in alphabetical order): electromagnetic methods; exploration geophysics; geodesy and gravity; geodynamics, rheology, and plate kinematics; geomagnetism and paleomagnetism; hydrogeophysics; Instruments, techniques, and models; solid Earth interactions with the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and climate; marine geology and geophysics; natural and anthropogenic hazards; near surface geophysics; petrology, geochemistry, and mineralogy; planet Earth physics and chemistry; rock mechanics and deformation; seismology; tectonophysics; and volcanology.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Parallel titles: JGR Solid Earth
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res B
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  • 18
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 102(1).1997 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-897X
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-8996
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 19
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 89.1984 –
    Print: 89.1984 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 41/2 - 42/1)
    Print: 94.1989 – 107.2002 (Location: A43, Büro Bibliothek)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / D  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Atmospheres publishes articles that advance and improve understanding of atmospheric properties and processes, including the interaction of the atmosphere with other components of the Earth system, as well as their roles in climate variability and change.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-897X
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-8996
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Parallel titles: JGR Atmospheres
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res D
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  • 20
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1963 –
    Print: 3.1965 – 43.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 62/3-5)
    Formerly as: Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics  (1970–1984)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Print ISSN: 0034-6853 , 0096-1043 , 8755-1209
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9208
    Topics: Geosciences
    Acronym: RG
    Abbreviation: Rev Geophys
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  • 21
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 16(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0278-7407
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9194
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 22
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1982 –
    Print: 4.1985 – 24.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 67/3-5)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU 〈Washington, DC〉 , European Geosciences Union, EGU
    Description: Tectonics contains original scientific contributions in analytical, synthetic, and integrative tectonics. Papers are restricted to the structure and evolution of the terrestrial lithosphere with dominant emphasis on the continents.
    Print ISSN: 0278-7407
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9194
    Topics: Geosciences
    Keywords: Seismologie ; Tektonik ; Plattentektonik ; Lithosphäre ; Kontinente ; seismology ; tectonics; plate tectonics ; lithosphere ; continents
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  • 23
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1(1).2013 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 24
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 96.2015 –
    Formerly as: Eos: Transactions  (1920–2014)
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Print ISSN: 0096-3941
    Electronic ISSN: 2324-9250
    Topics: Geosciences
    Keywords: Geophysik ; Meteorologie ; Ozeanographie
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  • 25
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1974 –
    Print: 1.1974 – 32.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 30/5 - 31/1)
    Print: 16.1989 – 29.2002 (Location: A43, LZ 9 Mitte)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU (Washington, DC)
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Acronym: GRL
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  • 26
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1987 –
    Print: 7.1993 – 19.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 32/3)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Print ISSN: 0886-6236
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9224
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Acronym: GBC
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  • 27
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 108(1).2003 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9003
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9011
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 28
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 108.2003 –
    Print: 108.2003 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 42/2)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / F  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Earth Surface focuses on the physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect the form and function of the surface of the solid Earth over all temporal and spatial scales, including fluvial, eolian, and coastal sediment transport; hillslope mass movements; glacial and periglacial activity; weathering and pedogenesis; and surface manifestations of volcanism and tectonism.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9003
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9011
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Parallel titles: JGR Earth Surface
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res F
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  • 29
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 110.2005 –
    Print: 110.2005 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 42/2)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / G  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Biogeosciences focuses on biogeosciences of the Earth system in the past, present, and future and the extension of this research to planetary studies. The emerging field of biogeosciences spans the intellectual interface between biology and the geosciences and attempts to understand the functions of the Earth system across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Studies in biogeosciences may use multiple lines of evidence drawn from diverse fields to gain a holistic understanding of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems and extreme environments. Specific topics within the scope of the section include process-based theoretical, experimental, and field studies of biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, atmosphere-, land-, and ocean-ecosystem interactions, biomineralization, life in extreme environments, astrobiology, microbial processes, geomicrobiology, and evolutionary geobiology.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-8953
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-8961
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Parallel titles: JGR Biogeosciences
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res G
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  • 30
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 83.1978 –
    Print: 83.1978 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 38/5 - 39/4)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / A  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Space Physics is dedicated to the publication of new and original research in the broad field of space science. This embraces aeronomy, magnetospheric physics, planetary atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres, solar and interplanetary physics, cosmic rays, and heliospheric physics. Science that links interactions between space science and other components of the Sun-Earth system are encouraged, as are multidisciplinary and system-level science papers.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9380
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9402
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Parallel titles: JGR Space Physics
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res A
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  • 31
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 102(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9097
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9100
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 32
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU) | European Geosciences Union (EGU) | Copernicus
    Online: 1.1994 –
    Print: 1.1994 – 17.2010 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 54/1)
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU) , European Geosciences Union (EGU) , Copernicus
    Corporation: European Geosciences Union, EGU
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7946
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Keywords: Geophysik, Meteorologie, Ozeanographie
    Acronym: NPG
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  • 33
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1(1).1986 –
    Formerly as: Paleoceanography  (1986–2017)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Print ISSN: 0883-8305
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9186 , 2572-4525
    Topics: Geosciences
    Keywords: Paläontologie ; Ozeanographie ; Klimatologie
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  • 34
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1(1).2003 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 1542-7390
    Electronic ISSN: 1542-7390
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 35
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1965 –
    Print: 31.1995 – 41.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 70/2-4)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Acronym: WRR
    Abbreviation: Water Resour Res
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  • 36
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 35(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
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  • 37
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU) | Association of American Geographers (AAG) | American Meteorological Society | Allen Press
    Online: 1(1).1997 –
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU) , Association of American Geographers (AAG) , American Meteorological Society , Allen Press
    Electronic ISSN: 1087-3562
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 38
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 78(1).1997 – 95(51).2014
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0096-3941
    Electronic ISSN: 2324-9250
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 39
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1920 – 95.2014
    Print: 10.1925 – 92.2011 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 22/1-5)
    Print: 61.1980 – 92.2011 (Location: A43, ZS-Auslage)
    Formerly as: Transactions  (1920–1968)
    Continued as: Eos: Earth & Space Science News  (1915–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Print ISSN: 0096-3941
    Electronic ISSN: 2324-9250
    Topics: Geosciences
    Acronym: Eos
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  • 40
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 96.1991 –
    Print: 96.1991 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 42/1-2)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / E  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Planets is dedicated to the publication of new and original research in the broad field of planetary science. Manuscripts concerning planetary geology, geophysics, geochemistry, atmospheres, and dynamics are appropriate for the journal when they increase knowledge about the processes that affect Solar System objects. Manuscripts concerning other planetary systems, exoplanets or Earth are welcome when presented in a comparative planetology perspective. Studies in the field of astrobiology will be considered when they have immediate consequences for the interpretation of planetary data. JGR: Planets does not publish manuscripts that deal with future missions and instrumentation, nor those that are primarily of an engineering interest. Instrument, calibration, or data processing papers may be appropriate for the journal, but only when accompanied by scientific analysis and interpretation that increases understanding of the studied object. A manuscript that describes a new method or technique would be acceptable for JGR: Planets if it contained new and relevant scientific results obtained using the method.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9097
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9100
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Parallel titles: JGR Planets
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res E
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  • 41
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 102(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9275
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9291
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  • 42
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 83.1978 –
    Print: 83.1978 – 110.2005 (Location: A17, Kompaktmagazin, 40/4 - 41/1)
    Print: 98.1993 – 107.2002 (Location: A43, Büro Bibliothek)
    Formerly as: Journal of Geophysical Research / C  (–)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Description: JGR: Oceans embraces the application of physics, chemistry, biology, and geology to the study of the oceans and their interaction with other components of the Earth system. Deepening the integrated knowledge of the sea utilizes new observational, analytical, computational and modeling capabilities to build upon established approaches in all areas of marine science.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227 , 2169-9275
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202 , 2169-9291
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Parallel titles: JGR Oceans
    Acronym: JGR
    Abbreviation: J Geophys Res C
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  • 43
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    Wiley-Blackwell - STM | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 1.1966 –
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell - STM , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Corporation: American Geophysical Union, AGU
    Print ISSN: 0048-6604
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-799X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 44
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    Wiley-Blackwell | American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Online: 32(1).1997 – (older than 24 months)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell , American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Print ISSN: 0048-6604
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-799X
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2015-05-20
    Description: The multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm-temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold-temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2015-05-20
    Description: We explore potential changes in Greenland ice sheet form and flow associated with increasing ice temperatures and relaxing effective ice viscosities. We define "thermal-viscous collapse" as a transition from the polythermal ice sheet temperature distribution characteristic of the Holocene to temperate ice at the pressure-melting-point and associated lower viscosities. The conceptual model of thermal-viscous collapse we present is dependent on: (i) sufficient energy available in future meltwater runoff, (ii) routing of meltwater to the bed of the ice sheet interior, and (iii) efficient energy transfer from meltwater to the ice. While we do not attempt to constrain the probability of thermal-viscous collapse, it appears thermodynamically plausible to warm the deepest 15 % of the ice sheet, where the majority of deformational shear occurs, to the pressure-melting-point within five centuries. First-order numerical modelling of an end-member scenario, in which prescribed ice temperatures are warmed at an imposed rate of 0.05 K/a, infers a decrease in ice sheet volume of 5 ± 2 % within five centuries of initiating collapse. This is equivalent to a cumulative sea level rise contribution of 33 ± 18 cm. The vast majority of the sea level rise contribution associated with thermal-viscous collapse, however, would likely be realized over subsequent millennia.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 47
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-28
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2015-11-14
    Description: This article is a review of the science goals and the activities initiated within the framework of the P ollution and its I mpacts on the S outh A merican C ryosphere ( PISAC ) initiative. Air pollution associated with biomass burning and urban emissions affects extensive areas of South America. We focus on black carbon (BC) aerosol and its impacts on air quality, water availability, and climate, with an emphasis on the Andean cryosphere. BC is one of the key short-lived climate pollutants, which is a topic of growing interest for near-term mitigation of these issues. Limited scientific evidence indicates that the Andean cryosphere has already responded to climate change with receding glaciers and snow cover, which directly affect water resources, agriculture and energy production in the Andean region of South America. Despite the paucity of systematic observations along the Andes, a few studies have detected BC on snow and glaciers in the Andes. These, in addition to existing and projected emissions and weather patterns, suggest a possible contribution of BC to the observed retreat of the Andean cryosphere. Here we provide an overview of the current understanding of these issues from scientific and policy perspectives, and propose strategic expansions to the relevant measurement infrastructure in the region.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2015-12-23
    Description: Key Points Liberal values in rich democracies are threatened by population growth in poor countries. The most likely repressive policy response will be barriers to immigration. Fertility reduction in high-fertility countries requires increased access to contraception.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 50
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015-11-27
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 51
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: Words are integral to thinking and communicating. Words also carry old baggage. The Anthropocene necessitates new thinking and communication at the human-nature interface. Words like progress, natural, and thresholds are pervasive in both scientific and policy discourse, but carry baggage that will likely slow understanding of the Anthropocene and appropriate adaptation. The dynamic systems thinking with emergent properties of ecology needs to replace the efficiency and growth framework of economics. Diversity and resilience are productive and less historically burdened words.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 52
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015-10-30
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2015-10-16
    Description: Despite advances in our understanding of the processes driving contemporary sea level rise, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains uncertain due to the influence of strong ice-climate feedbacks. Disentangling these feedbacks is key to reducing uncertainty. Here we present a series of climate system model simulations that explore the potential effects of increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) meltwater flux on Southern Ocean dynamics. We project future changes driven by sectors of the WAIS, delivering spatially and temporally variable meltwater flux into the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell embayments over future centuries. Focusing on the Amundsen Sea sector of the WAIS over the next 200 years, we demonstrate that the enhanced meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, resulting in a significant decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. This triggers rapid pervasive ocean warming (〉1°C) at depth due to advection from the original site(s) of meltwater input. The greatest warming predicted along sectors of the ice sheet that are highly sensitized to ocean forcing, creating a feedback loop that could enhance basal ice shelf melting and grounding line retreat. Given that we do not include the effects of rising CO 2 - predicted to further reduce AABW formation - our experiments highlight the urgent need to develop a new generation of fully-coupled ice sheet climate models, that include feedback mechanisms such as this, to reduce uncertainty in climate and sea level projections.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2015-10-25
    Description: Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to inter-model variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21 st -century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011–2035) and mid-century (2036–2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2014-07-17
    Description: . Recent studies identified the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras as a “hotspot” for accelerated sea level rise (SLR), and the analysis presented here show that the area is also a “hotspot for accelerated flooding”. The duration of minor tidal flooding (defined as 0.3 m above MHHW) has accelerated in recent years for most coastal locations from the Gulf of Maine to Florida. The average increase in annual minor flooding duration was ~20 hours from the period until 1970 to 1971–1990, and ~50 hours from 1971–1990 to 1991–2013; spatial variations in acceleration of flooding resembles the spatial variations of acceleration in sea level. The increase in minor flooding can be predicted from SLR and tidal range, but the frequency of extreme storm-surge flooding events (0.9 m above MHHW) is less predictable, and affected by the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO). The number of extreme storm surge events since 1960 oscillates with a period of ~15-year and interannual variations in the number of storms is anti-correlated with the NAO index. With higher seas, there are also more flooding events that are unrelated to storm surges. For example, it is demonstrated that week-long flooding events in Norfolk, VA, are often related to periods of decrease in the Florida Current transport. The results indicate that previously reported connections between decadal variations in the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level may also apply to short-term variations, so flood predictions may be improved if the Gulf Stream influence is considered.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2014-08-21
    Description: This paper outlines the contributions of social science to the study of interactions between urbanization patterns and processes and the carbon cycle, and identifies gaps in knowledge and priority areas for future social scientific research contributions. While previously studied as a uni-dimensional process, we conceptualize urbanization as a multi-dimensional, social and biophysical process driven by continuous changes across space and time in various sub-systems including biophysical, built environment and socio-institutional (e.g. economic, political, demographic, behavioral and sociological). We review research trends and findings focused on the socio-institutional subsystem of the urbanization process, and particularly the dynamics, relationships and predictions relevant to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Our findings suggest that a multi-dimensional perspective of urbanization facilitates a wider spectrum of research relevant to carbon cycle dynamics, even within the socio-institutional sub-system. However, there is little consensus around the details and mechanisms underlying the relationship between urban socio-institutional subsystems and the carbon cycle. We argue that progress in understanding the relationship between urbanization and the carbon cycle may be achieved if social scientists work collaboratively with each other as well as with scientists from other disciplines. From this review we identify research priorities where collaborative social scientific efforts are necessary in conjunction with other disciplinary approaches to generate a more complete understanding of urbanization as a process and its relationship to the carbon cycle.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2014-07-27
    Description: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2 "∘ C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2 "∘ C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO 2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO 2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2014-06-14
    Description: Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially-variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of ‘1-in-10’ and ‘1-in-100’ year events. Summary Local sea-level rise generally differs from global sea-level rise, with differences arising from local uplift or subsidence, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level response to shrinking land ice. Uncertain Antarctic ice sheet mass loss is the largest source of uncertainty in late-century projections globally and at most sites, although ocean dynamics is the major source in some locations. Sea-level rise greatly amplifies flood risk, pointing to the need for including sea-level rise allowances in flood risk assessments.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2014-08-13
    Description: Public perception and regulation of environmental hazards are important factors in the development and configuration of cities. Throughout California, probabilistic seismic hazard mapping and geologic investigations of active faults have spatially quantified earthquake hazard. In Los Angeles, these analyses have informed earthquake engineering, public awareness, the insurance industry, and the government regulation of developments near faults. Understanding the impact of natural hazards regulation on the social and built geography of cities is vital for informing future science and policy directions. We constructed a relative social vulnerability index classification for Los Angeles to examine the social condition within regions of significant seismic hazard; including areas regulated as Alquist-Priolo (AP) Act earthquake fault zones. Despite hazard disclosures, social vulnerability is lowest within AP regulatory zones and vulnerability increases with distance from them. Because the AP Act requires building setbacks from active faults, newer developments in these zones are bisected by parks. Parcel-level analysis demonstrates that homes adjacent to these fault zone parks are the most valuable in their neighborhoods. At a broad scale, a Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index shows that greenness near AP zones is greater than the rest of the metropolitan area. In the parks-poor city of Los Angeles, fault zone regulation has contributed to the construction of park space within areas of earthquake hazard, thus transforming zones of natural hazard into amenities, attracting populations of relatively high social status, and demonstrating that the distribution of social vulnerability is sometimes more strongly tied to amenities than hazards.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2014-08-13
    Description: The recent intensification of international trade has led to a globalization of food commodities and to an increased disconnection between human populations and the land and water resources that support them through crop and livestock production. Several countries are not self-sufficient and depend on imports from other regions. Despite the recognized importance of the role of trade in global and regional food security, the societal reliance on domestic production and international trade remains poorly quantified. Here we investigate the global patterns of food trade and evaluate the dependency of food security on imports. We investigate the relationship existing between the trade of food calories and the virtual transfer of water used for their production. We show how the amount of food calories traded in the international market has more than doubled between 1986 and 2009, while the number of links in the trade network has increased by more than 50%. Likewise, global food production has increased by more than 50% in the same period, providing an amount of food that is overall sufficient to support the global population at a rate of 2700-3000 kcal per person per day. About 23% of the food produced for human consumption is traded internationally. The Water Use Efficiency of food trade (i.e., food calories produced per unit volume of water used) has declined in the last few decades. The water use efficiency of food production overall increases with the countries’ affluence; this trend is likely due to the use of more advanced technology.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2017-09-06
    Description: ABSTRACT Risk perception research has played an influential role in supporting risk management and risk communication policy. Risk perception studies are popular across a range of disciplines in the social and natural sciences for a wide range of hazard types. Their results have helped to articulate the complex individual, relational, structural, and environmental factors influencing people's behavior. Connections between individual and collective behaviors and norms impacting global climate change, and consequently, local disaster risk, however, are infrequently included in disaster risk management. This paper presents results from two diverse and complementary European risk perception studies examining both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Research gaps and recommendations for developing more comprehensive risk management strategies are presented.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2017-09-13
    Description: Land surface albedo is a key parameter controlling the local energy budget, and altering the albedo of built surfaces has been proposed as a tool to mitigate high near-surface temperatures in the Urban Heat Island. However, most research on albedo in urban landscapes has used coarse-resolution data, and few studies have attempted to relate albedo to other urban land cover characteristics. This study provides an empirical description of urban summertime albedo using 30 m remote sensing measurements in the metropolitan area around Boston, Massachusetts, relating albedo to metrics of impervious cover fraction, tree canopy coverage, population density, and land surface temperature (LST). At 30 m spatial resolution, median albedo over the study area (excluding open water) was 0.152 (0.112–0.187). Trends of lower albedo with increasing urbanization metrics and temperature emerged only after aggregating data to 500 m or the boundaries of individual towns, at which scale a −0.01 change in albedo was associated with a 29 (25–35)% decrease in canopy cover, a 27 (24–30)% increase in impervious cover, and an increase in population from 11–386 km −2 . The most intensively urbanized towns in the region showed albedo up to 0.035 lower than the least urbanized towns, and mean mid-morning LST 12.6 °C higher. Trends in albedo derived from 500 m MODIS measurements were comparable, but indicated a strong contribution of open water at this coarser resolution. These results reveal linkages between albedo and urban land cover character, and offer empirical context for climate resilient planning and future landscape functional changes with urbanization.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2017-09-21
    Description: Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, Louisiana. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2017-09-21
    Description: Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of “event attribution” compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual, climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual, climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2017-09-21
    Description: Solving the problems of global warming, air pollution, and energy security requires a massive effort by individuals, communities, businesses, nonprofits, and policy makers around the world. The first step in that process is to have a plan. To that end, roadmaps to transition 139 countries of the world to 100% clean, renewable wind, water, and solar power for all energy purposes (electricity, transportation, heating, cooling, industry, agriculture, forestry, and fishing) by 2050, with 80% by 2030, have been developed. The evolution, characteristics, and impacts to date of these plans are briefly described.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2017-10-17
    Description: Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research, however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirically-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, USA, for the period 2001–2100. Land-use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km 2  yr −1 ; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%, however the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2014-12-05
    Description: VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE’s main approach to validation is user focussed: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2014-05-21
    Description: When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. [2002], suggest that the decline in Arctic sea ice volume (3.4% per decade), will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al . [2013] have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2014-05-29
    Description: We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydro-climate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are seen in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2014-06-17
    Description: We used the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) global two-dimensional (2D) atmospheric model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a proposed geoengineering activity wherein a reduced top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar irradiance is imposed to help counteract a quadrupled CO 2 atmosphere. This study is similar to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Experiment G1. Three primary simulations were completed with the GSFC 2D model to examine this possibility: A) a pre-industrial atmosphere with a boundary condition of 285 ppmv CO 2 ( piControl ); B) a base future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 ( abrupt4xCO2 ); and C) a perturbed future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 and a 4% reduction in the TOA total solar irradiance ( G1 ). We found huge ozone enhancements throughout most of the stratosphere (up to 40%) as a result of a large computed temperature decrease (up to 18K) when CO 2 was quadrupled (compare simulation abrupt4xCO2 to piControl ). Further, we found that ozone will additionally increase (up to 5%) throughout most of the stratosphere with total ozone increases of 1-2.5% as a result of a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance (compare simulation G1 to abrupt4xCO2 ). Decreases of atomic oxygen and temperature are the main drivers of this computed ozone enhancement from a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2014-11-18
    Description: Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by A. Otto and others ( Nature Geosci ., 2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO 2 given in AR5, 1.5 to 4.5 K/(3.7 W m -2 ) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2 to 2.9 K/(3.7 W m −2 ), where 3.7 W m −2 denotes the forcing for doubled CO 2 . Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects. Summary: Recent assessments of Earth's climate sensitivity and forcings over the industrial period, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature and rate of increase of planetary heat content, exhibit differences and apparent inconsistencies.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2015-03-10
    Description: Urbanization, climate, and ecosystem change represent major challenges for managing water resources. Although water systems are complex, a need exists for a generalized representation of these systems to identify important components and linkages to guide scientific inquiry and aid water management. We developed an integrated Structure-Actor-Water framework (iSAW) to facilitate the understanding of and transitions to sustainable water systems. Our goal was to produce an interdisciplinary framework for water resources research that could address management challenges across scales (e.g., plot to region) and domains (e.g., water supply and quality, transitioning and urban landscapes). The framework was designed to be generalizable across all human-environment systems, yet with sufficient detail and flexibility to be customized to specific cases. iSAW includes three major components: structure (natural, built, and social), actors (individual and organizational), and water (quality and quantity). Key linkages among these components include: 1) ecological/hydrologic processes, 2) ecosystem/geomorphic feedbacks, 3) planning, design, and policy, 4) perceptions, information, and experience, 5) resource access and risk, and 6) operational water use and management. We illustrate the flexibility and utility of the iSAW framework by applying it to two research and management problems: understanding urban water supply and demand in a changing climate, and expanding use of green stormwater infrastructure in an arid environment. The applications demonstrate that a generalized conceptual model can identify important components and linkages in complex and diverse water systems and facilitate communication about those systems among researchers from diverse disciplines.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2014-12-19
    Description: Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half-century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5-year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Kopp et al. (2014) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local-median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2015-01-06
    Description: A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could decrease global surface temperature by 1 to 2°C for 5 to 10 years, and have major impacts on precipitation and solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Using a crop simulation model forced by three global climate model simulations, we investigate the impacts on agricultural production in China, the largest grain producer in the world. In the first year after the regional nuclear war, a cooler, drier, and darker environment would reduce annual rice production by 30 Mt (29%), maize production by 36 Mt (20%), and wheat production by 23 Mt (53%). With different agriculture managements – no irrigation, auto irrigation, 200 kg/ha nitrogen fertilizer and 10 days delayed planting date, simulated national crop productions reduce 16-26% for rice, 9-20% for maize and 32-43% for wheat during five years after the nuclear war event. This reduction of food availability would continue, with gradually decreasing amplitude, for more than a decade. Assuming these impacts are indicative of those in other major grain producers, a nuclear war using much less than 1% of the current global arsenal could produce a global food crisis and put a billion people at risk of famine.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 75
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    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-11
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2016-11-05
    Description: The Earth's future depends on how we manage the manifold risks of climate change. It is state-of-the-art to assume that risk reduction requires participatory management involving a broad range of stakeholders and scientists. However, there is still little knowledge about the optimal design of participatory climate change risk management processes (PRMPs), in particular with respect to considering the multitude of substantial uncertainties that are relevant for PRMPs. To support the many local to regional PRMPs that are necessary for a successful global-scale reduction of climate change risks, we present a roadmap for designing such transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes. The roadmap suggests ways in which uncertainties can be comprehensively addressed within a PRMP. We discuss the concept of climate change risks and their management and propose an uncertainty framework that distinguishes epistemic, ontological and linguistic uncertainty as well as ambiguity. Uncertainties relevant for climate change risk management are identified. Communicative and modeling methods that support social learning as well as the development of risk management strategies are proposed for each of six phases of a PRMP. Finally, we recommend how to evaluate PRMPs as such evaluations and their publication are paramount for achieving a reduction of climate change risks.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277