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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology  (5)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
  • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia  (7)
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science
  • Public Library of Science
Collection
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Years
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of several statistical models, which are used to describe the occurrence process of earthquakes in forecasting the short-term earthquake probabilities during the L’Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy in 2009. These models include the Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) model and two versions of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We used the information gains corresponding to the Poisson and binomial scores to evaluate the performance of these models. It is shown that both ETAS models work better than the PPE model. However, in comparing the two types of ETAS models, the one with the same fixed exponent coefficient (alpha) = 2.3 for both the productivity function and the scaling factor in the spatial response function (ETAS I), performs better in forecasting the active aftershock sequence than the model with different exponent coefficients (ETAS II), when the Poisson score is adopted. ETAS II performs better when a lower magnitude threshold of 2.0 and the binomial score are used. The reason is found to be that the catalog does not have an event of similar magnitude to the L’Aquila mainshock (Mw 6.3) in the training period (April 16, 2005 to March 15, 2009), and the (alpha)-value is underestimated, thus the forecast seismicity is underestimated when the productivity function is extrapolated to high magnitudes. We also investigate the effect of the inclusion of small events in forecasting larger events. These results suggest that the training catalog used for estimating the model parameters should include earthquakes of magnitudes similar to the mainshock when forecasting seismicity during an aftershock sequence.
    Description: Published
    Description: S0649
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: L’Aquila earthquake ; ETAS model ; PPE model ; Probability forecast ; Point process ; Probability gain ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We have analyzed the recent seismicity of Mt. Vesuvius, with particular emphasis on the period 1999-2012. Since 1972 continuous observations with electromagnetic seismometers allowed the compilation of a detailed earthquake catalogue for the station OVO. Furthermore since 1999 another, more complete, catalogue for the station BKE, closer to the crater, is available. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes shows a temporal decrease of the b-value since 1985, with current values close to 1.0. The temporal pattern of the strain release shows a non-stationary behavior with periods of increased release rates (as in 1989-1990, 1995-1996 and 1999-2000). The spatial distribution of the seismicity consists in two main seismogenic volumes, one with hypocenters clustered below the Mt. Vesuvius crater at depths mostly between 1-6 km, and another with hypocenters clustered within the Gran Cono volcanic edifice, with depths above the sea level. We compare the statistical properties of the seismicity occurring within these two volumes and their spatial and temporal patterns. Moreover we analyze the statistical distribution of focal mechanisms for each volume. Our results point to gravity-induced stresses as the source of the shallow seismicity and of a combined effect of crustal heterogeneities, regional stress and hydrothermal dynamics for the deeper seismicity. Finally we discuss possible future developments of the seismic monitoring system in the light of the past and current seismicity.
    Description: Published
    Description: S0442
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mt. Vesuvius ; seismological monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The computing techniques currently available for the seismic monitoring allow advanced analysis. However, the correct event classification remains a critical aspect for the reliability of real time automatic analysis. Among the existing methods, neural networks may be considered efficient tools for detection and discrimination, and may be integrated into intelligent systems for the automatic classification of seismic events. In this work we apply an unsupervised technique for analysis and classification of seismic signals recorded in the Mt. Vesuvius area in order to improve the automatic event detection. The examined dataset contains about 1500 records divided into four typologies of events: earthquakes, landslides, artificial explosions, and “other” (any other signals not included in the previous classes). First, the Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) and a waveform parametrization have been applied to achieve a significant and compact data encoding. Then, the clustering is obtained using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) neural network which does not require an a-priori classification of the seismic signals, groups those with similar structures, providing a simple framework for understanding the relationships between them. The resulting SOM map is separated into different areas, each one containing the events of a defined type. This means that the SOM discriminates well the four classes of seismic signals. Moreover, the system will classify a new input pattern depending on its position on the SOM map. The proposed approach can be an efficient instrument for the real time automatic analysis of seismic data, especially in the case of possible volcanic unrest.
    Description: Published
    Description: S0446
    Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mt. Vesuvius ; Neural analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The typical earthquakes occurring at Mt. Vesuvius are Volcano-Tectonic. On July 20, 2003, an unusual earthquake with low and narrow frequency content was detected. The seismograms presented an emergent onset and a nearly monochromatic spectrum at all stations of the Osservatorio Vesuviano(Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) seismic network. The event was located at about 4 km b.s.l. close to the crater axis and an equivalent duration magnitude of 0.6 was estimated. The nature of this event was investigated by comparing its features with those of two typical Volcano-Tectonic earthquakes occurred inside the same source volume. We compared the spectral content calculating the spectrograms and the coda patterns using the Hilbert Transform. A Seismic Moment Tensor inversion was performed on the low frequency earthquake. The focal mechanisms for the two Volcano-Tectonic earthquakes were estimated with a classical technique and resulted compatible with the stress field acting on the volcano. Taking into account the clear differences with the typical Volcano-Tectonic events as well as the peculiarities retrieved from our analyses (monochromatic, low frequency spectral content, and sustained coda) and also some geochemical observations, we classify the unusual low frequency seismic event detected at Mt. Vesuvius as Long Period earthquake and propose that its origin could be linked to a pressure drop in the deep hydrothermal system.
    Description: Published
    Description: S0440
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcano monitoring ; Volcanic event classification ; Long Period earthquake ; Signal analysis ; Hydrothermal system ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: One of the main issues in seismic monitoring of active volcanic areas is the accurate location of earthquake hypocenters. Volcano-tectonic seismicity is often characterized by small magnitude swarms, recorded by few seismic stations with a high picking uncertainty. Sometimes events lacks clear S-wave arrivals, due to the nature of some volcanic sources. All these features, together with the complex crustal structure of volcanoes, makes the earthquake location problem critical in such areas. One of the most important effort for improving the quality of hypocenter location is the use of realistic 3D velocity models. In the last 10 years, several scientific papers proposed 2D and 3D velocity models for Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and the Gulf of Naples. They comes from both active seismic data (VESUVIO 94, TOMOVES 96, MAREVES 97 and SERAPIS 2001 experiments) and from local earthquake tomography. In this report we propose a global unified velocity model spanning from Ischia island to Appennine Mts. that allows us to locate earthquakes in the Neapolitan volcanic areas and in the Gulf of Naples. This model comes from a weighted averaging of 5 tomographic velocity models and a background regional model. Most of the model provides only P-wave velocities, only 2 models, obtained through local earthquake tomography at Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei also gives a S-wave velocity estimate. We show the difference between this new model and the previous 1D models adopted for routine locations at INGV-Osservatorio Vesuviano. We also relocate some events, using non-linear techniques showing differences in hypocenter position from previous locations and the improvement in final traveltime residuals and location uncertainties.
    Description: Published
    Description: 375-390
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcano-tectonic seismicity ; 3D velocity model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-12-09
    Description: We describe the setting up of the first earthquake forecasting experiment for Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). CSEP conducts rigorous and truly prospective forecast experiments for different tectonic environments in several forecast testing centers around the globe; forecasts are issued for a future period and also tested only against future observations to avoid any possible bias. As such, experiments need to be completely defined. This includes exact definitions of the testing area, of learning data for the forecast models, and of observation data against which forecasts will be tested to evaluate their performance. Here we present the rules, as taken from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment and extended or changed for the Italian experiment. We also present characterizations of learning and observational catalogs that describe the completeness of these catalogs and illuminate inhomogeneities of magnitudes between these catalogs. A particular focus lies on the stability of earthquake recordings of the observational network. These catalog investigations provide guidance for CSEP modelers for developing earthquakes forecasts for submission to the forecast experiment in Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-9
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: 5.1. TTC - Banche dati e metodi macrosismici
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Statistical analysis ; Earthquake interactions and probability ; Seismic risk ; Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Episodes of nonvolcanic tremor and accompanying slow slip recently have been observed in the subduction zones of Japan and Cascadia. In Cascadia, such episodes typically last a few weeks, and differ from “normal” earthquakes in their source location and momentduration scaling. The three most recent episodes in the Puget Sound/Southern Vancouver Island portion of the Cascadia subduction zone have been exceptionally well recorded. In each episode, we see clear pulsing of tremor activity with periods of 12.4 and 24-25 hours, the same as the principal lunar and lunisolar tides. This indicates that the small stresses associated with the solid-earth and ocean tides influence the genesis of tremor much more effectively than they do “normal” earthquakes. Because the lithostatic stresses are 105 times larger than those associated with the tides, we argue that tremor occurs on very weak faults.
    Description: Published
    Description: 186 -189
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Nonvolcanic ; tremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Published
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: open
    Keywords: rock physics, geomechanics, thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling, natural hazards ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.04. Mineral physics and properties of rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.05. Rheology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
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