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  • Articles  (6,442,883)
  • Elsevier  (5,798,406)
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science  (369,588)
  • Public Library of Science  (274,889)
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  • 1
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    Search for anomalies in Stromboli's pre-paroxysm activity through an automatic hybrid method of time series analysis (2024)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Stromboli (Italy) is an open-vent volcano with persistent explosive activity producing up to five hundred mild explosions per day. Fluctuations in explosion intensity, varying even by orders of magnitude in terms of emitted volume and their subsequent impact on the surrounding regions, sometimes occur abruptly. Consequently, identifying precursors of larger eruptive activities, particularly for more intense (paroxysmal) explosions, is challenging. In order to search for anomalies in the pre-paroxysm activity related to the summer 2019 eruption, we applied a hybrid method to the automatic analysis of geophysical and geochemical time series. This approach is based on the combination of two methods: 1. the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and 2. the Support Vector Regression (SVR). The aggregation of these two methods allowed us to identify anomalies in the patterns of the geophysical and geochemical parameters measured on Stromboli in a ten-month period including the July–August 2019 eruption. The results of this study are encouraging for an improvement of the monitoring systems and for volcano early warning applications.
    Description: This work has been supported by the INGV project Pianeta Dinamico 2023-2025 - ObseRvation, Measurement and modelling of Eruptive processes (ORME), and partially supported by the Progetto Strategico Dipartimentale INGV 2019 “Forecasting eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano: timing, eruptive style, size, intensity and duration” (FIRST, Delibera n. 144/2020; Scientific Responsibility: S.C.). Furthermore, this research has benefited from the support of Convenzione B2 DPC-INGV 2022-2024, Stromboli, Task 1.3 “Development of a unique activity index and estimation of the probability of the transition between ‘ordinary’ and ‘extraordinary’ eruptive activity”, and of the INGV project “Reti Multiparametriche”, Task A2 “Development of methods for the identification of precursors of Stromboli's paroxysms and major explosions based on multiparametric data analysis and study of possible early warning techniques”.
    Description: In press
    Description: 108131
    Description: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Stromboli volcano ; Volcanic monitoring ; Data analysis ; Multiparametric geophysics ; Paroxysmal explosions ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Spatial competition in a global disturbance minimum; the seabed under an Antarctic ice shelf (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3The Science of The Total Environment, Elsevier, 903, pp. 166157-166157, ISSN: 0048-9697
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: The marine habitat beneath Antarctica’s ice shelves spans ~1.6 million km2, and life in this vast and extreme environment is among Earth’s least accessible, least disturbed and least known, yet likely to be impacted by climate-forced warming and environmental change. Although competition among biota is a fundamental structuring force of ecological communities, hence ecosystem functions and services, nothing was known of competition for resources under ice shelves, until this study. Boreholes drilled through a ~ 200 m thick ice shelf enabled collections of novel sub-ice-shelf seabed sediment which contained fragments of biogenic substrata rich in encrusting (lithophilic) macrobenthos, principally bryozoans – a globally-ubiquitous phylum sensitive to environmental change. Analysis of sub-glacial biogenic substrata, by stereo microscopy, provided first evidence of spatial contest competition, enabling generation of a new range of competition measures for the sub-ice-shelf benthic space. Measures were compared with those of global open-water datasets traversing polar, temperate and tropical latitudes (and encompassing both hemispheres). Spatial competition in sub-ice-shelf samples was found to be higher in intensity and severity than all other global means. The likelihood of sub-ice-shelf competition being intraspecific was three times lower than for open-sea polar continental shelf areas, and competition complexity, in terms of the number of different types of competitor pairings, was two-fold higher. As posited foran enduring disturbance minimum, a specific bryozoan clade was especially competitively dominant in sub-ice shelf samples compared with both contemporary and fossil assemblage records. Overall, spatial competition under an Antarctic ice shelf, as characterised by bryozoan interactions, was strikingly different from that of open- sea polar continental shelf sites, and more closely resembled tropical and temperate latitudes. This study represents the first analysis of sub-ice-shelf macrobenthic spatial competition and provides a new ecological baseline for exploring, monitoring and comparing ecosystem response to environmental change in a warming world.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    Testate amoebae (Protozoa) in lakes of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Biodiversity, community structures, and protozoic biosilicification in relation to environmental properties and climate warming (2024)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3The Science of The Total Environment, Elsevier, 913, pp. 169661-169661, ISSN: 0048-9697
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is characterized by a vast number of frozen and unfrozen freshwater reservoirs, which is why it is also called “the third pole” of the Earth or “Asian Water Tower”. We analyzed testate amoeba (TA) biodiversity and corresponding protozoic biosilicification in lake sediments of the QTP in relation to environmental properties (freshwater conditions, elevation, and climate). As TA are known as excellent bio-indicators, our results allowed us to derive conclusions about the influence of climate warming on TA communities and microbial biogeochemical silicon (Si) cycling. We found a total of 113 TA taxa including some rare and one unknown species in the analyzed lake sediments of the QTP highlighting the potential of this remote region for TA biodiversity. 〉1/3 of the identified TA taxa were relatively small (〈30 μm) reflecting the relatively harsh environmental conditions in the examined lakes. TA communities were strongly affected by physico-chemical properties of the lakes, especially water temperature and pH, but also elevation and climate conditions (temperature, precipitation). Our study reveals climate-related changes in TA biodiversity with consequences for protozoic biosilicification. As the warming trend in the QTP is two to three times faster compared to the global average, our results provide not only deeper insights into the relations between TA biodiversity and environmental properties, but also predictions of future developments in other regions of the world. Moreover, our results provide fundamental data for paleolimnological reconstructions. Thus, examining the QTP is helpful to understand microbial biogeochemical Si cycling in the past, present, and future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, 478, pp. 110278-110278, ISSN: 0304-3800
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics. Exploring variable traits and trait adaptation through inheritance in an individual-based model can improve our understanding and help future projections. We updated the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator), used for forest predictions in Eastern Siberia, with trait value variation and incorporated inheritance of parental values to their offspring. Forcing the model with both past and future climate projections, we simulated two areas – the expanding northern treeline and a southerly area experiencing drought. While the specific trait of ‘seed weight’ regulates migration, the abstract ‘drought resistance’ protects stands. We show that trait variation with inheritance leads to an increase in migration rate (∼ 3% area increase until 2100). The drought resistance simulations show that, under increasing stress, including adaptive traits leads to larger surviving populations (17% of threatened under RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway)). We show that with the increase expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario vast areas (80% of the extrapolated area) of larch forest are threatened and could disappear due to drought as adaptation plays only a minor role under strong warming. We conclude that variable traits facilitate the availability of variants under environmental changes. Inheritance allows populations to adapt to environments and promote successful traits, which leads to populations that can spread faster and be more resilient, provided the changes are not too drastic in both time and magnitude. We show that trait variation and inheritance contribute to more accurate models that can improve our understanding of responses of boreal forests to global change.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    Precession and obliquity forcing of the South African monsoon revealed by sub-tropical fires (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Quaternary Science Reviews, Elsevier, 310, pp. 108128-108128, ISSN: 0277-3791
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: While the influence of precession on monsoon at low latitudes through insolation forcing is well-known, the role of obliquity is still debated since its influence on the distribution of incoming solar radiation is small in these regions. In southern Africa, long marine and terrestrial sedimentary records attest of a precessional influence on the South African monsoon at orbital time scale. The obliquity signal is occasionally observed in the geological records although modeling results suggest an influence of precession and obliquity on summer monsoon. Here, we present a record of microscopic charcoal from core MD96-2098 located off Namibia covering the past 184,000 years. Our record of fire activity reveals cyclic changes at frequencies of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 and lacks the obliquity signal at 41 kyr−1. Changes in fire over southern Africa are interpreted as shifts in large and intense fires spreading in open-grassland savanna as a result of orbitally-driven changes in rainfall intensity associated with the South African monsoon. We show that, despite the absence of a 41 kyr obliquity imprint, the presence of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 frequencies likely stems from a nonlinear response of fire to precipitation controlled by a combination of precession and obliquity frequencies, supporting the influence of obliquity on the South African monsoon.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 6
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    Strengthening global-change science by integrating aeDNA with paleoecoinformatics (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Elsevier, 38(10), pp. 946-960, ISSN: 0169-5347
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-20
    Description: Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) data are close to enabling insights into past global-scale biodiversity dynamics at unprecedented taxonomic extent and resolution. However, achieving this potential requires solutions that bridge bioinformatics and paleoecoinformatics. Essential needs include support for dynamic taxonomic inferences, dynamic age inferences, and precise stratigraphic depth. Moreover, aeDNA data are complex and heterogeneous, generated by dispersed researcher networks, with methods advancing rapidly. Hence, expert community governance and curation are essential to building high-value data resources. Immediate recommendations include uploading metabarcoding-based taxonomic inventories into paleoecoinformatic resources, building linkages among open bioinformatic and paleoecoinformatic data resources, harmonizing aeDNA processing workflows, and expanding community data governance. These advances will enable transformative insights into global-scale biodiversity dynamics during large environmental and anthropogenic changes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    Centennial-scale variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon during the middle to late Holocene and its links with ENSO activity (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, Elsevier, 612, pp. 111380-111380, ISSN: 0031-0182
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-20
    Description: Relatively little is known about the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the centennial timescale during the Holocene. We present a well-dated high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning record from a sediment core from Lake Qionghai on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, which reveals the impact of ENSO activity on ISM variability. The results indicate a gradual drying of the regional climate on the sub-orbital timescale, which is in broad agreement with ISM changes controlled by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Additionally, centennial-scale drought events occurred at around 6230–5740, 4620–4250, 3820–3540, 3210–2440, 2180–1320, and 1000–615 cal yr B.P. and are consistent with enhanced ENSO activity, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related drought events in the Holocene. Both ISM oscillations and ENSO variability show significant 350-yr, 500-yr, and 800-yr cyclicities, and there is a highly significant negative relationship between the ISM and ENSO at these cyclicities, indicating that a weak ISM was related to increased ENSO intensity, and vice versa. Our findings provide evidence for the modulation of ISM intensity by ENSO variability on the centennial timescale during the Holocene.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
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    Terrestrial vegetation and lake aquatic community diversity under climate change during the mid–late Holocene in the Altai Mountains (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, Elsevier, 623, pp. 111623-111623, ISSN: 0031-0182
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-18
    Description: Using pollen analysis and metabarcoding of plant sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNa), we infer the floristic diversity in the vicinity of Lake Balyktukel, Ulagan Plateau, the Altai Mountains, over the last 7 kyr. The SedaDNA method identified 200% more taxa than found by morphological pollen analysis. In particular, it revealed that the dominant tree for the last 7 kyr was Larix rather than Pinus, which was less frequent in the vicinity of Lake Balyktukel. About 7 ka, larch forest mixed with dwarf birch was widespread on the Ulagan Plateau. The period between 5.3 and 3.4 kyr BP was characterized by the maximal spread of larch forest with an understorey cover of Vaccinium vitis-idaea. Pollen-based annual precipitation reconstruction indicates the most humid phase was between 6.95 and 4.3 ka, and generally coincides with maximal phytodiversity. The most bioproductive period of the lake was from 7 to 6 ka. After that, the trophicity of the lake decreased until 4.5 ka. The appearance of Hippuris vulgaris and increase in Ranunculus subgen. Batrachium at about 5.3–5 ka may indicate the extension of shallow-water ecotopes. Between 3.7 and 3.5 ka, the cyanobacterium Anabaena – an indicator of increased organic matter and algal blooms – was widespread. A planktic thermophilic cladoceran Bosmina longirostris appeared after 1.8 ka and colonized the lake, suggesting an increase in lake trophicity. The last 100 years have been characterized by dramatic changes in the cladoceran community reflecting significant warming of climate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 9
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    Yedoma: Late Pleistocene ice-rich syngenetic permafrost of Beringia (2024)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Elsevier, 16 p., ISBN: 9780124095489
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-17
    Description: Yedoma is a permafrost deposit widely distributed across the Arctic and found exclusively within the unglaciated regions in northern Siberia, Alaska, and the Yukon, which are the core regions of Beringia. Yedoma deposits accumulated during the late Pleistocene Stage and are characterized by their predominantly fine-grained texture and association with syngenetic perma-frost formation. The very high ground ice content is most commonly present as pore ice and wedge ice that formed contemporaneously with sediment deposition. In the last decade, research has transitioned from debates about the origin of the Yedoma deposits towards increasing attention on the large carbon and nitrogen pools in Yedoma, their vulnerability to thaw, and increasing mobilization as the climate has warmed across the Arctic. In addition to classical cryolithological and sedimentological research, new methods such as stable isotope paleoclimate reconstruction and ancient sedimentary DNA studies have been more widely applied to better understand the characteristics of Yedoma deposits and helped emphasize their value as archives of Quaternary climate and paleoecological conditions during Ice Age Beringia.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 10
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    Simulated radiocarbon cycle revisited by considering the bipolar seesaw and benthic 14C data (2024)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Elsevier, 640, pp. 118801-118801, ISSN: 0012-821X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-17
    Description: Carbon cycle models used to calculate the marine reservoir age of the non-polar surface ocean (called Marine20) out of IntCal20, the compilation of atmospheric C, have so far neglected a key aspect of the millennial-scale variability connected with the thermal bipolar seesaw: changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) related to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events. Here we implement such AMOC changes in the carbon cycle box model BICYCLE-SE to investigate how model performance over the last 55 kyr is affected, in particular with respect to available 14C and CO2 data. Constraints from deep ocean 14C data suggest that the AMOC in the model during Heinrich stadial 1 needs to be highly reduced or even completely shutdown. Ocean circulation and sea ice coverage combined are the processes that almost completely explain the simulated changes in deep ocean 14C age, and these are also responsible for a glacial drawdown of ∼60 ppm of atmospheric CO2. We find that the implementation of abrupt reductions in AMOC during Greenland stadials in the model setup that was previously used for the calculation of Marine20 leads to differences of less than ±100 14C yrs. The representation of AMOC changes therefore appears to be of minor importance for deriving non-polar mean ocean radiocarbon calibration products such as Marine20, where atmospheric carbon cycle variables are forced by reconstructions. However, simulated atmospheric CO2 exhibits minima during AMOC reductions in Heinrich stadials, in disagreement with ice core data. This mismatch supports previous suggestions that millennial-scale changes in CO2 were probably not driven directly by the AMOC, but rather by biological and physical processes in the Southern Ocean and by contributions from variable land carbon storage.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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