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  • Bonn: Bundestag  (2)
  • AGU (American Geological Union)  (1)
  • Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)  (1)
  • Rheinischen Friedrich–Wilhelms–Universität
  • NSF
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  • 1
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.
    Description: In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.
    Keywords: C12 ; C44 ; C63 ; D71 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; mathematical theory of democracy ; statistical test ; parties ; coalitions ; representativeness ; Bernoulli matrices ; sums of random vectors ; Demokratie ; Politische Partei ; Öffentliche Meinung ; Wahlverhalten ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geological Union) | Wiley
    In:  Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34 (5). pp. 866-885.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Key Points: - Rapid subsurface oceanographic change in the tropical W Atlantic reflect shifting Subtropical Gyre - Subsurface warming responds to deglacial AMOC perturbations (Heinrich Stadials 2, 1, and the Younger Dryas) - Southward propagation of Salinity Maximum Water during Northern Hemisphere cold spells shift the mixing zone of tropical and subtropical waters During times of deglacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) perturbations, the tropical Atlantic experienced considerable warming at subsurface levels. Coupled ocean‐atmosphere simulations corroborate the tight teleconnection between the tropical Atlantic and climate change at high northern latitudes, but still underestimate the relevance of the subsurface N Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (STG) for heat and salt storage and its sensitivity to rapid climatic change. We here reconstruct vertical and lateral temperature and salinity gradients in the tropical W Atlantic and the Caribbean over the last 30 kyrs, based on planktic deep and shallow dwelling foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O‐records. The rapid and large amplitude subsurface changes illustrate a dynamic STG associated with abrupt shifts of North Atlantic hydrographic and atmospheric regimes. During full glacial conditions, the STG has been shifted southward while intensified Ekman‐downwelling associated to strengthened trade winds fostered the formation of warm and saline Salinity Maximum Water (SMW). The southward propagation of SMW was facilitated by the glacially eastward deflected North Brazil Current. During periods of significant AMOC perturbations (Heinrich Stadials 1, and the Younger Dryas), extreme subsurface warming by ~6°C led to diminished lateral subsurface temperature gradients. Coevally, a deep thermocline suggests that SMW fully occupied the subsurface tropical W Atlantic and that the STG reached its southernmost position. During the Holocene, modern‐like conditions gradually developed with the northward retreat of SMW and the development of a strong thermocline ridge between the Subtropical Gyre and the tropical W Atlantic.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: PANGAEA Documentation , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    Bonn: Bundestag
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Wirtschaftslage ; Wirtschaftspolitische Beratung ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 5
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    Bonn: Bundestag
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 6
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    Rheinischen Friedrich–Wilhelms–Universität
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: PANGAEA Documentation , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: application/pdf
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