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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 15 (2005): 1036–1052, doi:10.1890/04-0434.
    Description: Boltonia decurrens is an endangered plant restricted to the Illinois River Valley. Its complex life cycle has evolved in response to the dynamics of the historic flood regime, which has changed dramatically in the last century due to the construction of navigation dams and agricultural levees. To explore the effects of these changes, we developed deterministic and stochastic matrix population models of the demography of Boltonia. We used periodic matrix models to incorporate intra-annual seasonal variation. We estimated parameters as a function of the timing of spring flood recession (early or late) and of growing season precipitation (high or low). Late floods and/or low precipitation reduce population growth (λ). Early floods and high precipitation lead to explosive population growth. Elasticity analysis shows that changes in floods and precipitation alter the life history pathways responsible for population growth, from annual to biennial and eventually clonal pathways. We constructed and analyzed a stochastic model in which flood timing and precipitation vary independently, and we computed the stochastic growth rate (log λs) and the variance growth rate (σ2) as functions of the frequency of late floods and low precipitation. Using historical data on floods and rainfall over the last 100 years, we found that log λs has declined as a result of hydrological changes accompanying the regulation of the river. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that over that time the contribution of annual life history pathways to log λs has declined as the contributions of biennial and clonal pathways have increased. Over the same time period, σ2 has increased, in agreement with observations of large fluctuations in local B. decurrens populations. Undoubtedly, many plant and animal species evolved in concert with dynamic habitats and are now threatened by anthropogenic changes in those dynamics. The data and analyses used in this study can be applied to management and development strategies to preserve other dynamic systems.
    Description: This work was supported by grants to M. Smith from NSF (DEB 9509763, DED 9321517), USACE, Illinois Groundwater Consortium and USFWS, and an EPA STAR grant (U- 91578101-2) to P. Mettler. H. Caswell also received support from NSF grant OCE-9983976 and EPA grant R-82908901, and a Maclaurin Fellowship from the New Zealand Institute of Mathematics and its Applications.
    Keywords: Boltonia decurrens ; Conservation ; Elasticity ; Floodplain ; Flood regime ; LTRE ; Matrix population model ; Periodic matrix model ; Stochastic elasticity ; Stochastic environment ; Stochastic matrix model ; Threatened species
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2005. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 15 (2005): 2097–2108, doi:10.1890/04-1762.
    Description: We investigated the effects of fire on population growth rate and invasive spread of the perennial tussock grass Molinia caerulea. During the last decades, this species has invaded heathland communities in Western Europe, replacing typical heathland species such as Calluna vulgaris and Erica tetralix. M. caerulea is considered a major threat to heathland conservation. In 1996, a large and unintended fire destroyed almost one-third of the Kalmthoutse Heide, a large heathland area in northern Belgium. To study the impact of this fire on the population dynamics and invasive spread of M. caerulea, permanent monitoring plots were established both in burned and unburned heathland. The fate of each M. caerulea individual in these plots was monitored over four years (1997–2000). Patterns of seed dispersal were inferred from a seed germination experiment using soil cores sampled one month after seed rain at different distances from seed-producing plants. Based on these measures, we calculated projected rates of spread for M. caerulea in burned and unburned heathland. Elasticity and sensitivity analyses were used to determine vital rates that contributed most to population growth rate, and invasion speed. Invasion speed was, on average, three times larger in burned compared to unburned plots. Dispersal distances on the other hand, were not significantly different between burned and unburned plots indicating that differences in invasive spread were mainly due to differences in demography. Elasticities for fecundity and growth of seedlings and juveniles were higher for burned than for unburned plots, whereas elasticities for survival were higher in unburned plots. Finally, a life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis revealed that the effect of fire was mainly contributed by increases in sexual reproduction (seed production and germination) and growth of seedlings and juveniles. Our results clearly showed increased invasive spread of M. caerulea after fire, and call for active management guidelines to prevent further encroachment of the species and to reduce the probability of large, accidental fires in the future. Mowing of resprouted plants before flowering is the obvious management tactic to halt massive invasive spread of the species after fire.
    Description: This work was supported by the Flemish Fund for Scientific Research (FWO) to HJ, the U.S. National Science foundation (DEB-0235692, OCE-0083976), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (R-8290891) to MGN.
    Keywords: Disturbance ; Elasticity ; Fire ; Integrodifference equations ; Invasive spread ; LTRE ; Matrix population model ; Molinia caerulea ; Sensitivity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    Institute of Physics
    In:  Bristol, Institute of Physics, vol. 8, no. Publ. No. 12, pp. 95-104, (ISBN 0-865-42078-5)
    Publication Date: 1986
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Fracture ; Boundary Element Method ; Elasticity ; Dynamic
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