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  • ddc:551.6  (6)
  • Volcano seismology  (4)
  • Springer Netherlands  (7)
  • Wiley  (3)
  • 1
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    Measurements meet human observations: integrating distinctive ways of knowing in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan to assess local climate change (2021)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-15
    Description: In mountain environments dimensions of climate change are unclear because of limited availability of meteorological stations. However, there is a necessity to assess the scope of local climate change, as the livelihood and food systems of subsistence-based communities are already getting impacted. To provide more clarity about local climate trends in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, this study integrates measured climate data with community observations in the villages of Savnob and Roshorv. Taking a transdisciplinary approach, both knowledge systems were considered as equally pertinent and mutually informed the research process. Statistical trends of temperature and snow cover were retrieved using downscaled ERA5 temperature data and the snow cover product MOD10A1. Local knowledge was gathered through community workshops and structured interviews and analysed using a consensus index. Results showed, that local communities perceived increasing temperatures in autumn and winter and decreasing amounts of snow and rain. Instrumental data records indicated an increase in summer temperatures and a shortening of the snow season in Savnob. As both knowledge systems entail their own strengths and limitations, an integrative assessment can broaden the understanding of local climate trends by (i) reducing existing uncertainties, (ii) providing new information, and (iii) introducing unforeseen perspectives. The presented study represents a time-efficient and global applicable approach for assessing local dimensions of climate change in data-deficient regions.
    Description: Projekt DEAL
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Climate change ; Pamir Mountains ; Local knowledge ; Perception ; Climate data ; Statistical downscaling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
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    Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal (2021)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-12
    Description: Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.
    Description: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn (1040)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Climate extremes ; ET-SCI ; Climate change impacts ; ClimPACT2 ; Karnali ; Nepal
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano’s miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity (2021)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-12
    Description: Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of “water miracles” in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the “Fall of the Roman Empire”. Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it.
    Description: Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Lucca
    Description: European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Precipitation ; Roman Empire ; Miracles ; Social feedbacks ; Cultural change
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman (2020)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: For centuries, traditional high-altitude oases in Oman have depended on the cultivation of deciduous fruit trees. This study explores the effects of climate change on winter chill (estimated as Chilling Hours—CH and Chill Portions—CP), a prerequisite to overcoming dormancy and initiating flowering, in three Omani oases. The results are compared with findings from an earlier study which reported a decrease in the numbers of CH in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2–9.5 CH year−1 between 1983 and 2008. Location-specific weather data were obtained by merging 15 years of in situ recordings with 28 years of observations from an official weather station near the top of the investigated watershed. Between 1991 and 2018, scenarios of the past few decades show chill reductions by 75, 35 and 18% when estimated in CP at the oases of Masayrat ar Ruwajah (1030 m a.s.l.), Qasha’ (1640 m a.s.l.), and Al ‘Ayn (1900 m a.s.l.), respectively. Over the course of the twenty-first century, the lowest-elevation oasis at Masayrat ar Ruwajah is projected to lose virtually all winter chill, whereas, despite significant chill losses, conditions are expected to remain viable for some of the currently grown species in the higher-elevation oases. These projected changes will compromise the cultivation of temperate fruit trees in the near future, affecting the sustainability of Omani oases. Our methods support results from earlier work performed at these locations and provide an updated procedure for assessing climate change effects on temperature-dependent systems.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Arabia ; Arid environments, ; Chill requirements ; Fruit production ; Global warming ; Warm winters
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Risk of extreme high fatalities due to weather and climate hazards and its connection to large-scale climate variability (2020)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: Weather and climate hazards cause too many fatalities each year. These weather and climate hazards are projected to increase in frequency and intensity due to global warming. Here, we use a disaster database to investigate continentally aggregated fatality data for trends. We also examine whether modes of climate variability affect the propensity of fatalities. Furthermore, we quantify fatality risk by computing effective return periods which depend on modes of climate variability. We find statistically significant increasing trends for heat waves and floods for worldwide aggregated data. Significant trends occur in the number of fatalities in Asia where fatalities due to heat waves and floods are increasing, while storm-related fatalities are decreasing. However, when normalized by population size, the trends are no longer significant. Furthermore, the number of fatalities can be well described probabilistically by an extreme value distribution, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Based on the GPD, we evaluate covariates which affect the number of fatalities aggregated over all hazard types. For this purpose, we evaluate combinations of modes of climate variability and socio-economic indicators as covariates. We find no evidence for a significant direct impact from socio-economic indicators; however, we find significant evidence for the impact from modes of climate variability on the number of fatalities. The important modes of climate variability affecting the number of fatalities are tropical cyclone activity, modes of sea surface temperature and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. This offers the potential of predictability of the number of fatalities given that most of these climate modes are predictable on seasonal to inter-annual time scales.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DE)
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Weather ; Disaster ; Global warming ; Extreme events
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future? (2020)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for 〉 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCM used, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions.
    Description: African Union Commission
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; THI ; Climate change ; Dairy cattle ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    A reappraisal of shear wave splitting parameters from Italian active volcanic areas through a semiautomatic algorithm (2008)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-17
    Description: Shear wave splitting parameters represent a useful tool to detail the stress changes occurring in volcanic environments before impending eruptions. In the present paper, we display the parameter estimates obtained through implementation of a semiautomatic algorithm applied to all useful datasets of the following Italian active volcanic areas:Mt. Vesuvius,Campi Flegrei, and Mt. Etna. Most of these datasets have been the object of several studies (Bianco et al., Annali di Geofisica, XXXXIX 2:429–443, 1996, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 82:199–218, 1998a, Geophys Res Lett 25(10):1545–1548, 1998b, Phys Chem Earth 24:977–983, 1999, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 133:229–246, 2004, Geophys J Int 167(2):959–967, 2006; Del Pezzo et al., Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(2):439–452, 2004). Applying the semiautomatic algorithm, we confirmed the results obtained in previous studies, so we do not discuss in much detail each of our findings but give a general overview of the anisotropic features of the investigated Italian volcanoes. In order to make a comparison among the different volcanic areas, we present our results in terms of the main direction of the fast polarization (ϕ) and percentage of shear wave anisotropy (ξ )
    Description: Published
    Description: 253–266
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Shear wave splitting parameters ; Temporal variations ; Volcano seismology ; Semiautomatic techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Temporal changes in seismic wave propagation towards the end of the 2002 Mt Etna eruption (2010)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Stress can undergo rapid temporal changes in volcanic environments, and this is particularly true during eruptions. We use two independent methods, coda wave interferometry (CWI) and shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis to track stress related wave propagation effects during the waning phase of the 2002 NE fissure eruption at Mt Etna. CWI is used to estimate temporal changes in seismic wave velocity, while SWS is employed to monitor changes in elastic anisotropy. We analyse seismic doublets, detecting temporal changes both in wave velocities and anisotropy, consistent with observed eruptive activity. In particular, syn-eruptive wave propagation changes indicate a depressurization of the system, heralding the termination of the eruption, which occurs three days later.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1779-1788
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Interferometry ; Seismic anisotropy ; Volcano seismology ; Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Time reverse location of seismic long-period events recorded on Mt Etna (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present the first application of a time reverse location method in a volcanic setting, for a family of long-period (LP) events recorded on Mt Etna. Results are compared with locations determined using a full moment tensor grid search inversion and cross-correlation method. From 2008 June 18 to July 3, 50 broad-band seismic stations were deployed on Mt Etna, Italy, in close proximity to the summit. Two families of LP events were detected with dominant spectral peaks around 0.9 Hz. The large number of stations close to the summit allowed us to locate all events in both families using a time reversal location method. The method involves taking the seismic signal, reversing it in time, and using it as a seismic source in a numerical seismic wave simulator where the reversed signals propagate through the numerical model, interfere constructively and destructively, and focus on the original source location. The source location is the computational cell with the largest displacement magnitude at the time of maximum energy current density inside the grid. Before we located the two LP families we first applied the method to two synthetic data sets and found a good fit between the time reverse location and true synthetic location for a known velocity model. The time reverse location results of the two families show a shallow seismic region close to the summit in agreement with the locations using a moment tensor full waveform inversion method and a cross-correlation location method.
    Description: Published
    Description: 452-462
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano seismology ; Computational seismology ; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Time reverse location of seismic long-period events recorded on Mt Etna (2011)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present the first application of a time reverse location method in a volcanic setting, for a family of long-period (LP) events recorded on Mt Etna. Results are compared with locations determined using a full moment tensor grid search inversion and cross-correlation method. From 2008 June 18 to July 3, 50 broad-band seismic stations were deployed on Mt Etna, Italy, in close proximity to the summit. Two families of LP events were detected with dominant spectral peaks around 0.9 Hz. The large number of stations close to the summit allowed us to locate all events in both families using a time reversal location method. The method involves taking the seismic signal, reversing it in time, and using it as a seismic source in a numerical seismic wave simulator where the reversed signals propagate through the numerical model, interfere constructively and destructively, and focus on the original source location. The source location is the computational cell with the largest displacement magnitude at the time of maximum energy current density inside the grid. Before we located the two LP families we first applied the method to two synthetic data sets and found a good fit between the time reverse location and true synthetic location for a known velocity model. The time reverse location results of the two families show a shallow seismic region close to the summit in agreement with the locations using a moment tensor full waveform inversion method and a cross-correlation location method.
    Description: In press
    Description: (11)
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano seismology ; Computational seismology ; Wave propagation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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