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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-02-21
    Description: We develop a new inversion approach to construct a 3-D structural and shear-wave velocity model of the crust based on teleseismic P-to-S converted waves. The proposed approach does not require local earthquakes such as body wave tomography, nor a large aperture seismic network such as ambient noise tomography, but a three-component station network with spacing similar to the expected crustal thickness. The main features of the new method are: (1) a novel model parametrization with 3-D mesh nodes that are fixed in the horizontal directions but can flexibly vary vertically; (2) the implementation of both sharp velocity changes across discontinuities and smooth gradients; (3) an accurate ray propagator that respects Snell’s law in 3-D at any interface geometry. Model parameters are inverted using a stochastic method composed of simulated annealing followed by a pattern search algorithm. The first application is carried out over the Central Alps, where long-standing permanent and the temporary AlpArray Seismic Network stations provide an ideal coverage. For this study we invert 4 independent parameters, which are the Moho discontinuity depth, the Conrad discontinuity depth, the P-velocity change at the Conrad and the average Vp/Vs of the crust. The 3-D inversion results clearly image the roots of the Alpine orogen, including the Ivrea Geophysical Body. The lower crust's thickness appears fairly constant. Average crustal Vp/Vs ratios are relatively higher beneath the orogen, and a low-Vp/Vs area in the northern foreland seems to correlate with lower crustal earthquakes, which can be related to mechanical differences in rock properties, probably inherited. Our results are in agreement with those found by 3-D ambient noise tomography, though our method inherently performs better at localizing discontinuities. Future developments of this technique can incorporate joint inversions, as well as more efficient parameter space exploration.
    Description: Published
    Description: 529 - 562
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Receiver functions  ; Inverse theory ; Crustal imaging ; Central Alps ; 05.01. Computational geophysics ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-09-06
    Description: A new probabilistic seismic hazard model, called Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2019 (MPS19), has been recently proposed for the Italian territory, as a result of the efforts of a large national scientific community. This model is based on 11 groups of earthquake rupture forecast inputs and, particularly, on 5 area-source seismogenic models, including the so-called MA4 model. Data-driven procedures were followed in MA4 to evaluate seismogenic parameters of each area source, such as upper and lower seismogenic depths, hypocentral-depth distributions, and nodal planes. In a few cases, expert judgement or ad hoc assumptions were necessary due to the scarcity of data. MA4 consists of 20 seismicity models that consider epistemic uncertainty in the estimations of the completeness periods of the earthquake catalogue, of maximum magnitude values and of seismicity rates. In particular, five approaches were adopted to calculate the rates, in the form of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distribution. The first approach estimated seismicity rates using earthquakes located in each area source, while the other approaches firstly calculated the seismicity rates for groups of areas considered tectonically homogeneous and successively partitioned in different ways the values to the area forming each group. The results obtained in terms of seismic hazard estimates highlight that the uncertainty explored by the 20 seismicity models of MA4 is at least of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty due to alternative ground motion models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2807–2827
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismogenic model, seismic hazard, Italy ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-06-09
    Description: In this paper we describe the macroseismic effects produced by the long and destructive seismic sequence that hit Central Italy from 24 August 2016 to January 2017. Starting from the procedure adopted in the complex field survey, we discuss the characteristics of the building stock and its classification in terms of EMS-98 as well as the issues associated with the intensity assessment due to the evolution of damage caused by multiple shocks. As a result, macroseismic intensity for about 300 localities has been determined; however, most of the intensities assessed for the earthquakes following the first strong shock on 24 August 2016, represent the cumulative effect of damage during the sequence. The earthquake parameters computed from the macroseismic datasets are compared with the instrumental determinations in order to highlight critical issues related to the assessment of macroseismic parameters of strong earthquakes during a seismic sequence. The results also provide indications on how location and magnitude computation can be strongly biased when dealing with historical seismic sequences.
    Description: Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri - Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC)
    Description: Published
    Description: 2407–2431
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Central Italy ; 2016–2017 Earthquake sequence ; Cumulative damage ; EMS-98 ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-24
    Description: Investigating relationships between macroseismic intensity and strong-motion data requires the existence of these two records for the same seismic event and site. In Italy, this comparison is feasible through the cross-matching of the Italian Macroseismic Database (DBMI) and the Italian Strong-Motion Database (ITACA) which are the most comprehensive sources of both data. However, the two databases lack a direct link which would allow performing joint analysis of macroseismic data points and strong-motion recordings, making the comparison a time consuming job for the researcher. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of cross-database identifiers, and presents their use in a webtool called Rosetta, an initial proof-of-concept that helped testing linking procedures among DBMI and ITACA, and user friendly visual solutions. The development allowed the working group to exchange expertise on their respective database structures and workflows, laying the groundwork for a consistent, low-maintenance, and durable solution that will be easily updatable each time a new version of DBMI or ITACA will be released.
    Description: Italian Department of Civil Protection to the project INGV-DPC S2-2014 “Constraining Observations into Seismic Hazard”
    Description: Published
    Description: 2429–2443
    Description: 3T. Storia Sismica
    Description: 4T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismology ; macroseismic intensity ; strong-motion ; stations ; historical earthquakes ; database ; identifiers ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.02. Data dissemination
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-05-24
    Description: In this study, we attempt to improve the standards in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) towards a time-dependent hazard assessment by using the most advanced methods and new databases for the Calabria region, Italy. In this perspective we improve the knowledge of the seismotectonic framework of the Calabrian region using geologic, tectonic, paleoseismological, and macroseismic information available in the literature. We built up a PSHA model based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults, together with the spatial distribution of historical earthquakes. We derive the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment (full-rupture) independently with a single event of maximum magnitude. We apply the floating rupture model to those earthquakes whose location is not known sufficiently constrained. We thus associate these events with longer fault systems, assuming that any such earthquake can rupture anywhere within the particular fault system (floating partial-rupture) with uniform probability. We use a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model characterized by mean recurrence, aperiodicity, or uncertainty in the recurrence distribution and elapsed time since the last characteristic earthquake. The purpose of this BPT model is to express the time-dependence of the seismic processes to predict the future ground motions in the region. Besides, we consider the influence on the probability of earthquake occurrence controlled by the change in static Coulomb stress (ΔCFF) due to fault interaction; to pursue this, we adopt a model built on the fusion of BPT model (BPT + ΔCFF). We present our results for both time-dependent (renewal) and time-independent (Poisson) models in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) maps for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The hazard may increase by more than 20% or decrease by as much as 50% depending on the different occurrence model. Seismic hazard in terms of PGA decreases about 20% in the Messina Strait, where a recent major earthquake took place, with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. PGA near the city of Cosenza reaches ~ 0.36 g for the time-independent model and 0.40 g for the case of the time-dependent one (i.e. a 15% increase). Both the time-dependent and time-independent models for the period of 2015–2065 demonstrate that the city of Cosenza and surrounding areas bear the highest seismic hazard in Calabria.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2497–2524
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Probabilistic seismic hazard maps ; Time-dependent hazard ; Fault-based model ; Fault interaction ; Seismogenic sources ; Calabria-Italy ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-05-24
    Description: The relation between macroseismic intensity and ground shaking makes it possible to transform instrumental Ground Motion Parameters (GMPs) in macroseismic intensity and vice versa, and is therefore useful for making comparisons between estimates of seismic hazard determined in terms of GMPs and macroseismic intensity, and for other engineering and seismological applications. Empirical relationships between macroseismic intensity and different recorded GMPs for the Italian territory are presented in this paper. The coefficients are calibrated using a dataset of horizontal geometrical mean GMPs, i.e. peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 s from the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (ITACA; Luzi et al. 2019), and macroseismic intensity at Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg (MCS) scale from the database DBMI15 (Locati et al. 2019). A dataset was obtained that corresponds to 240 pairs of macroseismic intensity-GMPs from 67 Italian earthquakes in the time window 1972-2016 with moment magnitude ranging from 4.2 to 6.8 and macroseismic intensity in the range [2, 10-11]. The final dataset is developed correlating strong motion stations and macroseismic intensity observations generally within 2 km from each other, but the associations is manually validated through the expert opinion. The adopted functional form is non-linear predicting macroseismic intensity as a function of LogGMPs and vice versa by performing separate regressions. The set of empirical conversion relationships GMP-I MCS -GMP and the associated standard deviations are compared with previous models. The results of an illustrative PSHA, obtained using a new seismogenic zonation (Santulin et al. 2017), proposed as one of the inputs of the new Italian seismic hazard model (Meletti et al. 2017), are used to analyse and compare seismic hazard assessment in terms of PGA and the related seismic hazard map in terms of macroseismic intensity (MCS) obtained using the empirical relationships here proposed for the PGA.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5143–5164
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: macroseismic ; intensity ; groundmotionparameters ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-03-16
    Description: In this work, we assess ground shaking in the wider Zagreb area by computing simulated seismograms at regional distances. For the purposes of the simulations, we assemble the 3D velocity and density model and test its performance. First, we compare the low-frequency simulations obtained using deterministic method for both new 3D model and a simple 1D model. We then continue the performance test by computing the full broadband seismo- grams. To do that, we apply the hybrid technique in which the low frequency (f〈1 Hz) and high frequency (f=1–10 Hz) seismograms are obtained separately using deterministic and stochastic method, respectively, and then reconciled into a single time series. We apply this method to the MW=5.3 event and four smaller (3.0〈MW〈5.0) events that occurred in the studied region. We compare simulated data with the recorded seismograms and vali- date our results by calculating the goodness of fit score for peak ground velocity and shak- ing duration. Next, to improve the understanding of the strong ground motion in this area, we simulate seismic shaking scenarios for the 1880, MW = 6.2 earthquake. From computed low-frequency waveforms, we generate shakemaps and compare the ground-motion fea- tures of the two possible sources of this event, Kašina fault and North Medvednica fault. We conduct a preliminary study to determine which fault is a more probable source of the 1880 historic event by comparing the peak ground velocities and Arias intensity with the observed intensities.
    Description: Croatian Science Foundation under the Project No. IP-2020-02-3960 European Commission, H2020 Excel- lence Science [ChEESE (Grant No. 823844)]
    Description: Published
    Description: 167–192
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Numerical simulation ; 3D ground motion ; Earthquake ; Central Croatia ; Zagreb ; Seismic wave propagation ; 3D crustal model ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-02-25
    Description: Physics-based broadband ground-motion simulations are generated for the strong mainshocks that occurred in the region of the Central Ionian Islands, on 26th January 2014 in Kefalonia (Mw6.1) and 17th November 2015 in Lefkas (Mw6.5). The study area is associated with frequent strong earthquakes both in the historical and instrumental eras. During the last decades, the network of strong-motion accelerographs in the area has been densified, and thus provided an adequate number of strong ground-motion records as a means to better examine the related ground-motion characteristics. In the present study, broadband ground motions for the two case studies are simulated both at selected sites and at a dense grid of points covering the affected areas. The low-frequency part of the synthetics is computed using a discrete wavenumber finite element method by convolving Green’s functions with a kinematic slip model in the frequency domain. A stochastic finite fault model approach based on a dynamic corner frequency is considered to calculate the ground motions for the higher frequencies. The broadband synthetic time series are generated after merging the results obtained from the two separate techniques, by performing a weighted summation at intermediate frequencies. The simulated values are validated by comparison with both recorded Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and PeakGround Velocity (PGV) values and the estimated ones by using widely accepted Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). Our results indicate that both the spatial distribution and the amplification pattern of the simulated ground motions, in the near-field, in terms of PGA and PGV are highly influenced by the slip heterogeneity and the maximum slip patches within the seismic source.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3505–3527
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; Strong ground motion ; near-source ground motion ; Ionian Islands ; stochastic finite-fault method ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: A new analysis of high-resolution multibeam and seismic reflection data, collected during several oceanographic expeditions starting from 1999, allowed us to compile an updated morphotectonic map of the North Anatolian Fault below the Sea of Marmara. We reconstructed kinematics and geometries of individual fault segments, active at the time scale of 10 ka, an interval which includes several earthquake cycles, taking as stratigraphic marker the base of the latest marine transgression. Given the high deformation rates relative to sediment supply, most active tectonic structures have a morphological expression at the seafloor, even in presence of composite fault geometries and/or overprinting due to mass-wasting or turbidite deposits. In the frame of the right-lateral strike-slip domain characterizing the North Anatolian fault system, three types of deformation are observed: almost pure strike-slip faults, oriented mainly E–W; NE/SW-aligned axes of transpressive structures; NW/SE-oriented trans-tensional depressions. Fault segmentation occurs at different scales, but main segments develop alongthree major right-lateral oversteps, which delimit main fault branches, from east to west: (i) the transtensive Cinarcik segment; (ii) the Central (East and West) segments; and (iii) the westernmost Tekirdag segment. A quantitative morphometric analysis of the shallow deformation patterns observed by seafloor morphology maps and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles along the entire basin allowed to determine nature and cumulative lengths of individual fault segments. These data were used as inputs for empirical relationships, to estimate maximum expected Moment Magnitudes, obtaining values in the range of 6.8–7.4 for the Central, and 6.9–7.1 for the Cinarcik and Tekirdag segments, respectively. We discuss these findings considering analyses of historical catalogues and available paleoseismological studies for the Sea of Marmara regionto formulate reliable seismic hazard scenarios.
    Description: Published
    Description: 29–44
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Keywords: North Anatolian fault · ; Sea of Marmara ; Earthquakes ; Active fault segments ; Marine geophysics ; Seismic hazard ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2021-12-15
    Description: We investigated the seismic fault structure and the rupture characteristics of the MW 6.6, 2 May 2020, Cretan Passage earthquake through tsunami data inverse modelling. Our results suggest a shallow crustal event with a reverse mechanism within the accretionary wedge rather than on the Hellenic Arc subduction interface. The study identifies two possible ruptures: a steeply sloping reverse splay fault and a back-thrust rupture dipping south, with a more prominent dip angle.
    Description: We present a source solution for the tsunami generated by the Mw 6.6 earthquake that occurred on 2 May 2020, about 80 km offshore south of Crete, in the Cretan Passage, on the shallow portion of the Hellenic Arc subduction zone (HASZ). The tide gauges recorded this local tsunami on the southern coast of Crete and Kasos island. We used Crete tsunami observations to constrain the geometry and orientation of the causative fault, the rupture mechanism, and the slip amount. We first modelled an ensemble of synthetic tsunami waveforms at the tide gauge locations, produced for a range of earthquake parameter values as constrained by some of the available moment tensor solutions. We allow for both a splay and a back-thrust fault, corresponding to the two nodal planes of the moment tensor solution. We then measured the misfit between the synthetic and the Ierapetra observed marigram for each source parameter set. Our results identify the shallow, steeply dipping back-thrust fault as the one producing the lowest misfit to the tsunami data. However, a rupture on a lower angle fault, possibly a splay fault, with a sinistral component due to the oblique convergence on this segment of the HASZ, cannot be completely ruled out. This earthquake reminds us that the uncertainty regarding potential earthquake mechanisms at a specific location remains quite significant. In this case, for example, it is not possible to anticipate if the next event will be one occurring on the subduction interface, on a splay fault, or on a back-thrust, which seems the most likely for the event under investigation. This circumstance bears important consequences because back-thrust and splay faults might enhance the tsunamigenic potential with respect to the subduction interface due to their steeper dip. Then, these results are relevant for tsunami forecasting in the framework of both the long-term hazard assessment and the early warning systems.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3713–3730
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Tsunami, Mediterranean, Early Warning ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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