ALBERT

Description: Regional and local patterns in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties of bogs and their laggs in coastal British Columbia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3421-3435, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Howie and H. J. van Meerveld In restoration planning for damaged raised bogs, the lagg at the bog margin is often not given considerable weight and is sometimes disregarded entirely. However, the lagg is critical for the proper functioning of the bog, as it supports the water mound in the bog. In order to include the lagg in a restoration plan for a raised bog, it is necessary to understand the hydrological characteristics and functions of this rarely studied transition zone. We studied 13 coastal British Columbia (BC) bogs and identified two different gradients in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties: (1) a local bog expanse–bog margin gradient, and (2) a regional gradient related to climate and proximity to the ocean. Depth to water table generally increased across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin. In the bog expanse, pH was above 4.2 in the Pacific Oceanic wetland region (cooler and wetter climate) and below 4.3 in the Pacific Temperate wetland region (warmer and drier climate). Both pH and pH-corrected electrical conductivity increased significantly across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin, though not in all cases. Na + and Mg 2+ concentrations were generally highest in exposed, oceanic bogs and lower in inland bogs. Ash content in peat samples increased across the bog expanse–bog margin transition, and appears to be a useful abiotic indicator of the location of the bog margin. The observed variation in the hydrological and hydrochemical gradients across the bog expanse–bog margin transition highlights both local and regional diversity of bogs and their associated laggs.

Description: Imperfect scaling in distributions of radar-derived rainfall fields Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11385-11422, 2013 Author(s): M. J. van den Berg, L. Delobbe, and N. E. C. Verhoest Fine scale rainfall observations for modeling exercises are often not available, but rather coarser data derived from a variety of sources are used. Effectively using these data sources in models often requires the probability distribution of the data at the applicable scale. Although numerous models for scaling distributions exist, these are often based on theoretical developments, rather than on data. In this study, we develop a model based on the α-stable distribution of rainfall fields, and tested on 5 min radar data from a Belgian weather radar. We use these data to estimate functions that describe parameters of the distribution over various scales. Moreover, we study how the mean of the distribution and the intermittency change with scale, and validate and design functions to describe the shape parameter of the distribution. This information was combined into an effective model of the distribution. Finally, the model was fitted to data from numerous storms, and the resulting parameters were compared to investigate the change in scaling behavior through time.

Description: Spatially resolved information on karst conduit flow from in-cave dye-tracing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11311-11335, 2013 Author(s): U. Lauber, W. Ufrecht, and N. Goldscheider Artificial tracers are powerful tools to investigate karst systems. Tracers are commonly injected into sinking streams or dolines, while springs serve as monitoring sites. The obtained flow and transport parameters represent mixed information from the vadose, epiphreatic and phreatic zones, i.e., the aquifer remains a black box. Accessible active caves constitute valuable but underexploited natural laboratories to gain detailed insights into the hydrologic functioning of the aquifer. Two multi-tracer tests in the catchment of a major karst spring (Blautopf, Germany) with injections and monitoring in two associated water caves aimed at obtaining spatially and temporally resolved information on groundwater flow in different compartments of the system. Two tracers were injected in the caves to characterize the hydraulic connections between them and with the spring. Two injections at the land surface, far from the spring, aimed at resolving the aquifer's internal drainage structure. Tracer breakthrough curves were monitored by field fluorimeters in caves and at the spring. Results demonstrate the dendritic drainage structure of the aquifer. It was possible to obtain relevant flow and transport parameters for different sections of this system. The highest mean flow velocities (275 m h −1 ) were observed in the near-spring epiphreatic section (open-channel flow), while velocities in the phreatic zone (pressurized flow) were one order of magnitude lower. Determined conduit water volumes confirm results of water balances and hydrograph analyses. In conclusion, experiments and monitoring in caves can deliver spatially resolved information on karst aquifer heterogeneity and dynamics that cannot be obtained by traditional investigative methods.

Description: On the lack of robustness of hydrologic models regarding water balance simulation – a diagnostic approach on 20 mountainous catchments using three models of increasing complexity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11337-11383, 2013 Author(s): L. Coron, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, M. Bourqui, and F. Hendrickx This paper investigates the robustness of rainfall–runoff models when their parameters are transferred in time. More specifically, we studied their ability to simulate water balance on periods with different hydroclimatic characteristics. The testing procedure consisted in a series of parameter transfers between 10-yr periods and the systematic analysis of mean-volume errors. This procedure was applied to three conceptual models of different structural complexity over 20 mountainous catchments in southern France. The results showed that robustness problems are common. Errors on 10-yr-mean flows were significant for all three models and calibration periods, even when the entire record was used for calibration. Various graphical and numerical tools were used to show strong similarities between the shapes of mean flow biases calculated on a 10-yr-long sliding window when various parameter sets are used. Unexpected behavioural similarities were observed between the three models tested, considering their large differences in structural complexity. While the actual causes for robustness problems in these models remain unclear, this work stresses the limited transferability in time of the water balance adjustments made through parameter optimization. Although absolute differences between simulations obtained with different calibrated parameter sets were sometimes substantial, relative differences in simulated mean flows between time periods remained similar regardless of the calibrated parameter sets.

Description: Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3397-3419, 2013 Author(s): C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, and C. Carmona Moreno Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, improved access to water supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables. Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the relationships between human development, external support, governance aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access. According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and (2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children. Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP (human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the economic conditions with higher household incomes. Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often is set back compared to urban areas 1 . External financial support, called Official Development Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models. An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries, and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2) country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom. These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation in recipient countries. Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5 (primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities. Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first priority as previously indicated. 1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/ , last access: 22 July 2013.

Description: Technical Note: A comparison of model and empirical measures of catchment-scale effective energy and mass transfer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3389-3395, 2013 Author(s): C. Rasmussen and E. L. Gallo Recent work suggests that a coupled effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) term, which includes the energy associated with effective precipitation and primary production, may serve as a robust prediction parameter of critical zone structure and function. However, the models used to estimate EEMT have been solely based on long-term climatological data with little validation using direct empirical measures of energy, water, and carbon balances. Here we compare catchment-scale EEMT estimates generated using two distinct approaches: (1) EEMT modeled using the established methodology based on estimates of monthly effective precipitation and net primary production derived from climatological data, and (2) empirical catchment-scale EEMT estimated using data from 86 catchments of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and MOD17A3 annual net primary production (NPP) product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Results indicated positive and significant linear correspondence ( R 2 = 0.75; P 〈 0.001) between model and empirical measures with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.86 MJ m −2 yr −1 . Modeled EEMT values were consistently greater than empirical measures of EEMT. Empirical catchment estimates of the energy associated with effective precipitation ( E PPT ) were calculated using a mass balance approach that accounts for water losses to quick surface runoff not accounted for in the climatologically modeled E PPT . Similarly, local controls on primary production such as solar radiation and nutrient limitation were not explicitly included in the climatologically based estimates of energy associated with primary production ( E BIO ), whereas these were captured in the remotely sensed MODIS NPP data. These differences likely explain the greater estimate of modeled EEMT relative to the empirical measures. There was significant positive correlation between catchment aridity and the fraction of EEMT partitioned into E BIO ( F BIO ), with an increase in F BIO as a fraction of the total as aridity increases and percentage of catchment woody plant cover decreases. In summary, the data indicated strong correspondence between model and empirical measures of EEMT with limited bias that agree well with other empirical measures of catchment energy and water partitioning and plant cover.

Description: Analysis of projected changes in the occurrence of heat waves in Hungary Advances in Geosciences, 35, 115-122, 2013 Author(s): R. Pongrácz, J. Bartholy, and E. B. Bartha Heat wave events are important temperature-related hazards due to their impacts on human health. In 2004, a Heat Health Warning System including three levels of heat wave warning was developed on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data in Hungary to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. Projected changes in the frequency of different heat wave warning levels are analysed for the 21st century. For this purpose, outputs of regional climate model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) are used taking into account three different global emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, B2). The results clearly show an increase in occurrence and length of heat waves with respect to the underlying emissions scenarios and regional climate model used. Moreover, the potential season of heat wave occurrences is projected to be lengthened by two months in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.

Description: Review Article: On the relation between the seismic activity and the Hurst exponent of the geomagnetic field at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2189-2194, 2013 Author(s): F. Masci and J. N. Thomas Many papers document the observation of earthquake-related precursory signatures in geomagnetic field data. However, the significance of these findings is ambiguous because the authors did not adequately take into account that these signals could have been generated by other sources, and the seismogenic origin of these signals have not been validated by comparison with independent datasets. Thus, they are not reliable examples of magnetic disturbances induced by the seismic activity. Hayakawa et al. (2004) claim that at the time of the 2000 Izu swarm the Hurst exponent of the Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) band of the geomagnetic field varied in accord with the energy released by the seismicity. The present paper demonstrates that the behaviour of the Hurst exponent was insufficiently investigated and also misinterpreted by the authors. We clearly show that during the Izu swarm the changes of the Hurst exponent were strongly related to the level of global geomagnetic activity and not to the increase of the local seismic activity.

Description: Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2157-2167, 2013 Author(s): C. Schunk, C. Wastl, M. Leuchner, C. Schuster, and A. Menzel Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

Description: The Mediterranean Sea system: a review and an introduction to the special issue Ocean Science, 9, 789-803, 2013 Author(s): T. Tanhua, D. Hainbucher, K. Schroeder, V. Cardin, M. Álvarez, and G. Civitarese The Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by high salinities, temperatures and densities. The net evaporation exceeds the precipitation, driving an anti-estuarine circulation through the Strait of Gibraltar, contributing to very low nutrient concentrations. The Mediterranean Sea has an active overturning circulation, one shallow cell that communicates directly with the Atlantic Ocean, and two deep overturning cells, one in each of the two main basins. It is surrounded by populated areas and is thus sensitive to anthropogenic forcing. Several dramatic changes in the oceanographic and biogeochemical conditions have been observed during the past several decades, emphasizing the need to better monitor and understand the changing conditions and their drivers. During 2011 three oceanographic cruises were conducted in a coordinated fashion in order to produce baseline data of important physical and biogeochemical parameters that can be compared to historic data and be used as reference for future observational campaigns. In this article we provide information on the Mediterranean Sea oceanographic situation, and present a short review that will serve as background information for the special issue in Ocean Science on "Physical, chemical and biological oceanography of the Mediterranean Sea". An important contribution of this article is the set of figures showing the large-scale distributions of physical and chemical properties along the full length of the Mediterranean Sea.

Description: Corrigendum to "NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland configuration" published in Ocean Sci., 9, 745–771, 2013 Ocean Science, 9, 787-787, 2013 Author(s): C. Maraldi, J. Chanut, B. Levier, N. Ayoub, P. De Mey, G. Reffray, F. Lyard, S. Cailleau, M. Drévillon, E. A. Fanjul, M. G. Sotillo, P. Marsaleix, and the Mercator Research and Development Team No abstract available.

Description: Preface "Landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2169-2171, 2013 Author(s): P. Reichenbach, A. Günther, and T. Glade

Description: The Chemistry CATT-BRAMS model (CCATT-BRAMS 4.5): a regional atmospheric model system for integrated air quality and weather forecasting and research Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1389-1405, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, M. Pirre, V. Marécal, L. F. Rodrigues, J. Panetta, M. F. Alonso, N. E. Rosário, D. S. Moreira, M. S. Gácita, J. Arteta, R. Fonseca, R. Stockler, D. M. Katsurayama, A. Fazenda, and M. Bela Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS, version 4.5) is an on-line regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from the surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT-BRAMS model takes advantage of BRAMS-specific development for the tropics/subtropics as well as the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations down to the meter. This on-line coupling of meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedback between the two. The entire system is made of three preprocessing software tools for user-defined chemical mechanisms, aerosol and trace gas emissions fields and the interpolation of initial and boundary conditions for meteorology and chemistry. In this paper, the model description is provided along with the evaluations performed by using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation accounts for model applications at different scales from megacities and the Amazon Basin up to the intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.

Description: Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 4563-4601, 2013 Author(s): F. Cossu and K. Hocke This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically-induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for mid-latitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m −2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m −2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

Description: The sensitivity of global climate to the episodicity of fire aerosol emissions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 23691-23717, 2013 Author(s): S. K. Clark, D. S. Ward, and N. M. Mahowald One of the major ways in which forest and grass fires have an impact on global climate is through the release of aerosols. Most studies focusing on calculating the radiative forcing and other climate impacts of fire aerosols use monthly mean emissions derived from the Global Fire Emissions Database that captures only the seasonal cycle of fire aerosol emissions. Here we present the results of a sensitivity study that investigates the climate response to the episodicity of the fires, based on the standard approach which releases emissions every day, and contrasts that to the response when fires are represented as intense pulses of emissions that occur only over 1–2 days on a monthly, yearly, or five-yearly basis. Overall we find that in the modified cases with increased levels of episodicity, the all sky direct effect radiative forcing increases, the clear sky direct effect radiative forcing remains relatively constant, and the magnitude of the indirect effect radiative forcing decreases by about 1 W m −2 (from −1.6 to −0.6 W m −2 ). In the long term, we find that an increase in aerosol emission episodicity leads to an asymmetric change in indirect radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere contributes to a slight shift in the annual average position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This shift is found to have a mixed effect on the overall performance of the model at predicting precipitation rates in the tropics. Given these results we conclude that future studies that look to assess the present day global climate impacts of fire aerosols should consider the need to accurately represent fire episodicity.

Description: Not all calcite ballast is created equal: differing effects of foraminiferan and coccolith calcite on the formation and sinking of aggregates Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 14861-14885, 2013 Author(s): K. Schmidt, C. L. De La Rocha, M. Gallinari, and G. Cortese Correlation between particulate organic carbon (POC) and calcium carbonate sinking through the deep ocean has led to the idea that ballast provided by calcium carbonate is important for the export of POC from the surface ocean. While this idea is certainly to some extent true, it is worth considering in more nuance, for example, examining the different effects on the aggregation and sinking of POC of small, non-sinking calcite particles like coccoliths and large, rapidly sinking calcite like planktonic foraminiferan tests. We have done that here in a simple experiment carried out in roller tanks that allow particles to sink continuously without being impeded by container walls. Coccoliths were efficiently incorporated into aggregates that formed during the experiment, increasing their sinking speed compared to similarly sized aggregates lacking added calcite ballast. The foraminiferan tests, which sank as fast as 700 m d −1 , became associated with only very minor amounts of POC. In addition, when they collided with other, larger, foraminferan-less aggregates, they fragmented them into two smaller, more slowly sinking aggregates. While these effects were certainly exaggerated within the confines of the roller tanks, they clearly demonstrate that calcium carbonate ballast is not just calcium carbonate ballast- different forms of calcium carbonate ballast have notably different effects on POC aggregation, sinking, and export.

Description: Laboratory studies of immersion and deposition mode ice nucleation of ozone aged mineral dust particles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9097-9118, 2013 Author(s): Z. A. Kanji, A. Welti, C. Chou, O. Stetzer, and U. Lohmann Ice nucleation in the atmosphere is central to the understanding the microphysical properties of mixed-phase and cirrus clouds. Ambient conditions such as temperature ( T ) and relative humidity (RH), as well as aerosol properties such as chemical composition and mixing state play an important role in predicting ice formation in the troposphere. Previous field studies have reported the absence of sulfate and organic compounds on mineral dust ice crystal residuals sampled at mountain top stations or aircraft based measurements despite the long-range transport mineral dust is subjected to. We present laboratory studies of ice nucleation for immersion and deposition mode on ozone aged mineral dust particles for 233 〈 T 〈 263 K. Heterogeneous ice nucleation of untreated kaolinite (Ka) and Arizona Test Dust (ATD) particles is compared to corresponding aged particles that are subjected to ozone concentrations of 0.4–4.3 ppmv in a stainless steel aerosol tank. The portable ice nucleation counter (PINC) and immersion chamber combined with the Zurich ice nucleation chamber (IMCA-ZINC) are used to conduct deposition and immersion mode measurements, respectively. Ice active fractions as well as ice active surface site densities ( n s ) are reported and observed to increase as a function of decreasing temperature. We present first results that demonstrate enhancement of the ice nucleation ability of aged mineral dust particles in both the deposition and immersion mode due to ageing. We also present the first results to show a suppression of heterogeneous ice nucleation activity without the condensation of a coating of (in)organic material. In immersion mode, low ozone exposed Ka particles showed enhanced ice activity requiring a median freezing temperature of 1.5 K warmer than that of untreated Ka, whereas high ozone exposed ATD particles showed suppressed ice nucleation requiring a median freezing temperature of 3 K colder than that of untreated ATD. In deposition mode, low exposure Ka had ice active fractions of an order of magnitude higher than untreated Ka, whereas high ozone exposed ATD had ice active fractions up to a factor of 4 lower than untreated ATD. From our results, we derive and present parameterizations in terms of n s ( T ) that can be used in models to predict ice nuclei concentrations based on available aerosol surface area.

Description: Antecedent flow conditions and nitrate concentrations in the Mississippi River Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11451-11484, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Murphy, R. M. Hirsch, and L. A. Sprague The influence of antecedent flow conditions on nitrate concentrations was explored at eight sites in the Mississippi River Basin, USA. Antecedent moisture conditions have been shown to influence nutrient export from small, relatively homogenous basins, but this influence has not been observed at a regional or continental scale. Antecedent flow conditions were quantified as the ratio between the mean daily flow of the previous year and the mean daily flow from the period of record ( Q ratio), and the Q ratio was statistically related to nitrate anomalies (the unexplained variability in nitrate concentration after filtering out season, long-term trend, and contemporaneous flow effects) at each site. Nitrate anomaly and Q ratio were negatively related at three of the four major tributary sites and upstream in the Mississippi River, indicating that when the previous year was drier than average, at these sites, nitrate concentrations were higher than expected. The strength of these relationships increased when data were subdivided by contemporaneous flow conditions. Five of the eight sites had significant negative relationships ( p ≤ 0.05) at high or moderately high contemporaneous flows, suggesting nitrate that accumulates in these basins during a drought is flushed during subsequent storm events. At half of the sites, when flow during the previous year was 50% drier than average, nitrate concentration can be from 9 and 27% higher than nitrate concentrations that follow a year with average daily flow. Conversely, nitrate concentration can be from 8 and 21% lower than expected when the previous year was 50% wetter than average. These relationships between nitrate concentration and Q ratio serve as the basis for future studies that can better define specific hydrologic processes occurring during and after a drought, which influence nitrate concentration, such as the duration or magnitude of low flows, and the timing of low and high flows.

Description: Tidally induced velocity variations of the Beardmore Glacier, Antarctica, and their representation in satellite measurements of ice velocity The Cryosphere, 7, 1375-1384, 2013 Author(s): O. J. Marsh, W. Rack, D. Floricioiu, N. R. Golledge, and W. Lawson Ocean tides close to the grounding line of outlet glaciers around Antarctica have been shown to directly influence ice velocity, both linearly and non-linearly. These fluctuations can be significant and have the potential to affect satellite measurements of ice discharge, which assume displacement between satellite passes to be consistent and representative of annual means. Satellite observations of horizontal velocity variation in the grounding zone are also contaminated by vertical tidal effects, the importance of which is highlighted here in speckle tracking measurements. Eight TerraSAR-X scenes from the grounding zone of the Beardmore Glacier are analysed in conjunction with GPS measurements to determine short-term and decadal trends in ice velocity. Diurnal tides produce horizontal velocity fluctuations of 〉50% on the ice shelf, recorded in the GPS data 4 km downstream of the grounding line. This variability decreases rapidly to 〈5% only 15 km upstream of the grounding line. Daily fluctuations are smoothed to 〈1% in the 11-day repeat pass TerraSAR-X imagery, but fortnightly variations over this period are still visible and show that satellite-velocity measurements can be affected by tides over longer periods. The measured tidal displacement observed in radar look direction over floating ice also allows the grounding line to be identified, using differential speckle tracking where phase information cannot be easily unwrapped.

Description: A new data set of soil mineralogy for dust-cycle modeling Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 23943-23993, 2013 Author(s): E. Journet, Y. Balkanski, and S. P. Harrison The mineralogy of airborne dust affects the impact of dust particles on direct and indirect radiative forcing, on atmospheric chemistry and on biogeochemical cycling. It is determined partly by the mineralogy of the dust-source regions and partly by size-dependent fractionation during erosion and transport. Here we present a data set that characterizes the clay and silt sized fractions of global soil units in terms of the abundance of 12 minerals that are important for dust-climate interactions: quartz, feldspars, illite, smectite, kaolinite, chlorite, vermiculite, mica, calcite, gypsum, hematite and goethite. The basic mineralogical information is derived from the literature, and is then expanded following explicit rules, in order to characterize as many soil units as possible. We present three alternative realisations of the mineralogical maps that account for the uncertainties in the mineralogical data. We examine the implications of the new database for calculations of the single scattering albedo of airborne dust and thus for dust radiative forcing.

Description: Calibration of the passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe for airborne determination of the size distribution Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2349-2358, 2013 Author(s): Y. Cai, J. R. Snider, and P. Wechsler This work describes calibration methods for the particle sizing and particle concentration systems of the passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP). Laboratory calibrations conducted over six years, in support of the deployment of a PCASP on a cloud physics research aircraft, are analyzed. Instead of using the many calibration sizes recommended by the PCASP manufacturer, a relationship between particle diameter and scattered light intensity is established using three sizes of mobility-selected polystyrene latex particles, one for each amplifier gain stage. In addition, studies of two factors influencing the PCASP's determination of the particle size distribution – amplifier baseline and particle shape – are conducted. It is shown that the PCASP-derived size distribution is sensitive to adjustments of the sizing system's baseline voltage, and that for aggregates of spheres, a PCASP-derived particle size and a sphere-equivalent particle size agree within uncertainty dictated by the PCASP's sizing resolution. Robust determinations of aerosol concentration, and size distribution, also require calibration of the PCASP's aerosol flowrate sensor. Sensor calibrations, calibration drift, and the sensor's non-linear response are documented.

Description: Contribution of snow and glacier melt to discharge for highly glacierised catchments in Norway Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11485-11517, 2013 Author(s): M. Engelhardt, T. V. Schuler, and L. M. Andreassen Glacierised catchments significantly alter the streamflow regime due to snow and glacier meltwater contribution to discharge. In this study, we modelled the mass balance and discharge rates for three highly glacierised catchments (〉50% glacier cover) in western Norway over the period 1961–2012. The spatial pattern of the catchments follows a gradient in climate continentality from west to east. The model uses gridded temperature and precipitation values from seNorge ( http://senorge.no ) as input which are available at a daily resolution. It accounts for accumulation of snow, transformation of snow to firn and ice, evaporation and melt. The model was calibrated for each catchment based on measurements of seasonal glacier mass-balances and daily discharge rates. For validation, daily melt rates were compared with measurements from sonic rangers located in the ablation zones of two of the glaciers and an uncertainty analysis was performed for the third catchment. The discharge contributions from snowmelt, glacier melt and rain were analysed with respect to spatial variations and temporal evolution. The model simulations reveal an increase of the relative contribution from glacier melt for the three catchments from less than 10% in the early 1990s to 15–30% in the late 2000s. The decline in precipitation by 10–20% in the same period was therefore overcompensated resulting in an increase of the annual discharge by 5–20%. Annual discharge sums and annual glacier melt are strongest correlated with annual and winter precipitation at the most maritime glacier and, with increased climate continentality, variations in both glacier melt contribution and annual discharge are becoming stronger correlated with variations in summer temperatures.

Description: Beyond multifractional Brownian motion: new stochastic models for geophysical modelling Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 643-655, 2013 Author(s): J. Lévy Véhel Multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) has proved to be a useful tool in various areas of geophysical modelling. Although a versatile model, mBm is of course not always an adequate one. We present in this work several other stochastic processes which could potentially be useful in geophysics. The first alternative type is that of self-regulating processes : these are models where the local regularity is a function of the amplitude, in contrast to mBm where it is tuned exogenously. We demonstrate the relevance of such models for digital elevation maps and for temperature records. We also briefly describe two other types of alternative processes, which are the counterparts of mBm and of self-regulating processes when the intensity of local jumps is considered in lieu of local regularity: multistable processes allow one to prescribe the local intensity of jumps in space/time, while this intensity is governed by the amplitude for self-stabilizing processes .

Description: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4585-4632, 2013 Author(s): H. Goosse and V. Zunz The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight in the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a strong positive ice-ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice and thus of freshwater that stabilizes the water column. Another stabilizing mechanism at interannual time scales that appears more widespread in our simulation is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter when ice is formed and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintain a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to ice-ocean feedback. Initial conditions have also an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

Description: Growth of sulphuric acid nanoparticles under wet and dry conditions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 24087-24125, 2013 Author(s): L. Škrabalová, D. Brus, T. Anttila, V. Ždímal, and H. Lihavainen New particle formation, which greatly influences the number concentrations and size distributions of an atmospheric aerosol, is often followed by a rapid growth of freshly formed particles. The initial growth of a newly formed aerosol is the crucial process determining the fraction of nucleated particles growing into cloud condensation nuclei sizes, which have a significant influence on climate. In this study, we report the laboratory observations of the growth of nanoparticles produced by nucleation of H 2 SO 4 and water in a laminar flow tube at temperatures of 283, 293 and 303 K, under dry (a relative humidity of 1%) and wet conditions (relative humidity of 30%) and residence times of 30, 45, 60 and 90 s. The initial H 2 SO 4 concentration spans the range from 2 × 10 8 to 1.4 × 10 10 molecule cm −3 and the calculated wall losses of H 2 SO 4 were assumed to be diffusion limited. The detected particle number concentrations, measured by the Ultrafine Condensation Particle Counter (UCPC) and Differential Mobility Particle Sizer (DMPS), were found to depend strongly on the residence time. Hygroscopic particle growth, presented by growth factors, was found to be in good agreement with the previously reported studies. The experimental growth rates ranged from 20 nm h −1 to 890 nm h −1 at RH 1% and from 7 nm h −1 to 980 nm h −1 at RH 30% and were found to increase significantly with the increasing concentration of H 2 SO 4 . Increases in the nucleation temperature had a slight enhancing effect on the growth rates under dry conditions. The influence of relative humidity on growth was not consistent – at lower H 2 SO 4 concentrations, the growth rates were higher under dry conditions while at H 2 SO 4 concentrations greater than 1×10 9 molecule cm −3 the growth rates were higher under wet conditions. The growth rates show only a weak dependence on the residence time. The experimental observations were compared with predictions made using a numerical model, which investigates the growth of particles with three different extents of neutralization by the ammonia NH 3 : (1) pure H 2 SO 4 – H 2 O particles (2) particles formed by ammonium bisulphate, (NH 4 )HSO 4 (3) particles formed by ammonium sulphate, (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 . The highest growth rates were found for ammonium sulphate particles. Since the model accounting for the initial H 2 SO 4 concentration predicted the experimental growth rates correctly, our results suggest that the commonly presumed diffusional wall losses of H 2 SO 4 are not so significant. We therefore assume that there are not only losses of H 2 SO 4 on the wall but also a flux of H 2 SO 4 molecules from the wall into the flow tube, the effect being more profound under dry conditions and at higher temperatures of the tube wall. Based on a comparison with the atmospheric observations, our results indicate that sulphuric acid alone can not explain the growth rates of particles formed in the atmosphere.

Description: Experimental quantification of contact freezing in an electrodynamic balance Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2373-2382, 2013 Author(s): N. Hoffmann, A. Kiselev, D. Rzesanke, D. Duft, and T. Leisner Heterogeneous nucleation of ice in a supercooled water droplet induced by external contact with a dry aerosol particle has long been known to be more effective than freezing induced by the same nucleus immersed in the droplet. However, the experimental quantification of contact freezing is challenging. Here we report an experimental method to determine the temperature-dependent ice nucleation probability of size-selected aerosol particles. The method is based on the suspension of supercooled charged water droplets in a laminar flow of air containing aerosol particles as contact freezing nuclei. The rate of droplet–particle collisions is calculated numerically with account for Coulomb attraction, drag force and induced dipole interaction between charged droplet and aerosol particles. The calculation is verified by direct counting of aerosol particles collected by a levitated droplet. By repeating the experiment on individual droplets for a sufficient number of times, we are able to reproduce the statistical freezing behavior of a large ensemble of supercooled droplets and measure the average rate of freezing events. The freezing rate is equal to the product of the droplet–particle collision rate and the probability of freezing on a single contact, the latter being a function of temperature, size and composition of the contact ice nuclei. Based on these observations, we show that for the types of particles investigated so far, contact freezing is the dominating freezing mechanism on the timescale of our experiment.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1481-1491, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche A new 18 O stable water isotope scheme is developed for three components of the i LOVECLIM coupled climate model: atmospheric, oceanic and land surface. The equations required to reproduce the fractionation of stable water isotopes in the simplified atmospheric model ECBilt are developed consistently with the moisture scheme. Simplifications in the processes are made to account for the simplified vertical structure including only one moist layer. Implementation of these equations together with a passive tracer scheme for the ocean and a equilibrium fractionation scheme for the land surface leads to the closure of the (isotopic-) water budget in our climate system. Following the implementation, verification of the existence of usual δ 18 O to climatic relationships are performed for the Rayleigh distillation, the Dansgaard relationship and the δ 18 O –salinity relationship. Advantages and caveats of the approach taken are outlined. The isotopic fields simulated are shown to reproduce most expected oxygen-18–climate relationships with the notable exception of the isotopic composition in Antarctica.

Description: Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3473-3483, 2013 Author(s): Y. Seo, N.-J. Choi, and A. R. Schmidt This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A palaeo-perspective based on present-day data–model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1505-1516, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley and D. M. Roche Oxygen stable isotopes (δ 18 O) are among the most useful tools in palaeoclimatology/palaeoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM, allowing fully coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present-day climate against the global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite-δ 18 O signal of speleothems for a global quantitative data–model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite-δ 18 O signal in i LOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with the late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil-δ 18 O signal recorded in foraminifer shells when all species are grouped together. Depth habitat, seasonality and other ecological effects play a more significant role when individual species are considered. We argue that a data–model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ 18 O in past climates, such as the Last Glacial Maximum (≈ 21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.

Description: Phenology as a strategy for carbon optimality: a global model Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15107-15152, 2013 Author(s): S. Caldararu, D. W. Purves, and P. I. Palmer Phenology is essential to our understanding of biogeochemical cycles and the climate system. We develop a global mechanistic model of leaf phenology based on the hypothesis that phenology is a strategy for optimal carbon gain at the canopy level so that trees adjust leaf gains and losses in response to environmental factors such as light, temperature and soil moisture, to achieve maximum carbon assimilation. We fit this model to five years of satellite observations of leaf area index (LAI) using a Bayesian fitting algorithm. We show that our model is able to reproduce phenological patterns for all vegetation types and use it to explore variations in growing season length and the climate factors that limit leaf growth for different biomes. Phenology in wet tropical areas is limited by leaf age physiological constraints while at higher latitude leaf seasonality is limited by low temperature and light availability. Leaf growth in grassland regions is limited by water availability but often in combination with other factors. This model will advance the current understanding of phenology for ecosystem carbon models and our ability to predict future phenological behaviour.

Description: Bias correction can modify climate model-simulated precipitation changes without adverse affect on the ensemble mean Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11585-11611, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer and D. W. Pierce When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated trends. This has important implications when the precipitation will be used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. We use daily precipitation output from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) over the conterminous United States interpolated to a common 1° grid, and gridded observations aggregated to the same scale, to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between different 30-yr historical periods is compared to examine (1) the consensus among GCMs as to whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish their simulated precipitation trends, and (2) whether the modification of the change in precipitation tends to improve or degrade the correspondence to observed changes in precipitation for the same periods. In some cases, for a particular GCM, the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among GCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. In specific locations and seasons the trend modification by quantile mapping improves correspondence with observed trends, and in others it degrades it. In the majority of the domain the ensemble median is for little effect on the correspondence of simulated precipitation trends with observed. This highlights the need to use an ensemble of GCMs rather than relying on a small number of models to estimate impacts.

Description: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2253-2270, 2013 Author(s): C. de Jong The assessment of the societal impact of hydrological extremes is particularly important in mountain regions, since mountains can be considered both as the generators and victims of extreme events. ICT can provide a powerful tool for transmitting hydro-meteorological information to predict, prepare and adapt to such events. However, in remote regions, such as mountains, the poles, deserts and islands, preventive and adaptive measures are often restricted by data availability and lack and/or incoherence of data networks. This paper distinguishes between early warning of floods and droughts, emphasising the latter in particular in mountains and explores the possibilities of enhancing the role of society in data collection, the identification, activation and application of stakeholder knowledge and transferral of data from gauged to ungauged catchments.

Description: A plume-in-grid approach to characterize air quality impacts of aircraft emissions at the Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9285-9302, 2013 Author(s): J. Rissman, S. Arunachalam, M. Woody, J. J. West, T. BenDor, and F. S. Binkowski This study examined the impacts of aircraft emissions during the landing and takeoff cycle on PM 2.5 concentrations during the months of June and July 2002 at the Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport. Primary and secondary pollutants were modeled using the Advanced Modeling System for Transport, Emissions, Reactions, and Deposition of Atmospheric Matter (AMSTERDAM). AMSTERDAM is a modified version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that incorporates a plume-in-grid process to simulate emissions sources of interest at a finer scale than can be achieved using CMAQ's model grid. Three fundamental issues were investigated: the effects of aircraft on PM 2.5 concentrations throughout northern Georgia, the differences resulting from use of AMSTERDAM's plume-in-grid process rather than a traditional CMAQ simulation, and the concentrations observed in aircraft plumes at subgrid scales. Comparison of model results with an air quality monitor located in the vicinity of the airport found that normalized mean bias ranges from −77.5% to 6.2% and normalized mean error ranges from 40.4% to 77.5%, varying by species. Aircraft influence average PM 2.5 concentrations by up to 0.232 μg m −3 near the airport and by 0.001–0.007 μg m −3 throughout the Atlanta metro area. The plume-in-grid process increases concentrations of secondary PM pollutants by 0.005–0.020 μg m −3 (compared to the traditional grid-based treatment) but reduces the concentration of non-reactive primary PM pollutants by up to 0.010 μg m −3 , with changes concentrated near the airport. Examination of subgrid-scale results indicates that median aircraft contribution to grid cells is higher than median puff concentration in the airport's grid cell and outside of a 20 km × 20 km square area centered on the airport, while in a 12 km × 12 km square ring centered on the airport, puffs have median concentrations over an order of magnitude higher than aircraft contribution to the grid cells. Maximum puff impacts are seen within the 12 km × 12 km ring, not in the airport's own grid cell, while maximum grid cell impacts occur within the airport's grid cell. Twenty-one (21)% of all aircraft-related puffs from the Atlanta airport have at least 0.1 μg m −3 PM 2.5 concentrations. Near the airport, median daily puff concentrations vary between 0.017 and 0.134 μg m −3 (0.05 and 0.35 μg m −3 at ground level), while maximum daily puff concentrations vary between 6.1 and 42.1 μg m −3 (7.5 and 42.1 μg m −3 at ground level) during the 2-month period. In contrast, median daily aircraft contribution to grid concentrations varies between 0.015 and 0.091 μg m −3 (0.09 and 0.40 μg m −3 at ground level), while the maximum varies between 0.75 and 2.55 μg m −3 (0.75 and 2.0 μg m −3 at ground level). Future researchers may consider using a plume-in-grid process, such as the one used here, to understand the impacts of aircraft emissions at other airports, for proposed future airports, for airport expansion projects under various future scenarios, and for other national-scale studies specifically when the maximum impacts at fine scales are of interest.

Description: Corrigendum to "Atmospheric column-averaged mole fractions of carbon dioxide at 53 aircraft measurement sites" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 5265–5275, 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9213-9216, 2013 Author(s): Y. Miyamoto, M. Inoue, I. Morino, O. Uchino, T. Yokota, T. Machida, Y. Sawa, H. Matsueda, C. Sweeney, P. P. Tans, A. E. Andrews, S. C. Biraud, and P. K. Patra No abstract available.

Description: Timing of sea ice retreat can alter phytoplankton community structure in the western Arctic Ocean Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15153-15180, 2013 Author(s): given_name prefix surname suffix, A. Fujiwara, T. Hirawake, K. Suzuki, I. Imai, and S.-I. Saitoh This study assesses the response of phytoplankton assemblages to recent climate change, especially with regard to the shrinking of sea ice in the northern Chukchi Sea of the western Arctic Ocean. Distribution patterns of phytoplankton groups in the late summers of 2008–2010 were analyzed based on HPLC pigment signatures and, the following four major algal groups were inferred via multiple regression and cluster analyses: prasinophytes, diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates. A remarkable interannual difference in the distribution pattern of the groups was found in the northern basin area. Haptophytes dominated and dispersed widely in warm surface waters in 2008, whereas prasinophytes dominated in cold water in 2009 and 2010. A difference in the onset date of sea ice retreat was evident among years – the sea ice retreat in 2008 was 1–2 months earlier than in 2009 and 2010. The spatial distribution of early sea ice retreat matched the areas in which a shift in algal community composition was observed. Steel-Dwass's multiple comparison tests were used to assess the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the four clusters. We found a statistically significant difference in temperature between the haptophyte-dominated cluster and the other clusters, suggesting that the change in the phytoplankton communities was related to the earlier sea ice retreat in 2008 and the corollary increase in sea surface temperatures. Longer periods of open water during the summer, which are expected in the future, may affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles in the western Arctic due to shifts in phytoplankton community structure.

Description: Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model? Climate of the Past, 9, 2173-2193, 2013 Author(s): C. Risi, A. Landais, R. Winkler, and F. Vimeux Combined measurements of the H 2 18 O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H 2 18 O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H 2 17 O have led to another second-order parameter: 17 O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17 O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17 O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM) LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD) and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The simulation of D-excess and 17 O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity), Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17 O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17 O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17 O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17 O-excess by LMDZ suggest that general circulation models are not yet the perfect tool to quantify with confidence all processes controlling 17 O-excess.

Description: Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5299-5346, 2013 Author(s): K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60–55% (in the linear case) to 53–42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity contributes less, particularly for the adapted Gaussian-kernel based estimators and the event synchronization function. The introduced link strength concept summarizes the hypothesis test results and balances the individual strengths of the estimators: while gXCF is particularly suitable for short and irregular time series, gMI and the ESF can identify nonlinear dependencies. ESF could, in particular, be suitable to study extreme event dynamics in paleoclimate records. Programs to analyze paleoclimatic time series for significant dependencies are included in a freely available software toolbox.

Description: Assimilating water column and satellite data for marine export production estimation Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1575-1590, 2013 Author(s): X. Yao and R. Schlitzer Recent advances in satellite retrieval methodology now allow for estimation of particular organic carbon (POC) concentration in ocean surface waters directly from satellite-based optical data. Because of the good coverage, these data reveal small-scale spatial and temporal concentration gradients and document the evolution of surface water POC as well as the underlying driving biogeochemical processes throughout the seasons. Water column nutrient data also reveal biogeochemical activity. However, because of the scarcity of data, the deduction of temporal changes of particle production and export is not possible in most parts of the ocean. Here we present first results from a new study combining both data streams, thereby exploiting the high spatio-temporal resolution of surface POC concentrations from satellite optical sensors with water column nutrient data having sparser coverage but providing information throughout the entire water column. We use a medium-resolution global model with steady-state 3-D circulation that has been optimized by fitting to a large number of hydrographic parameters and tracers, including CFCs and natural radiocarbon. Production and export of POC is allowed to vary monthly, and the magnitudes of the monthly export fluxes are determined by fitting the model to satellite POC data as well as water column nutrient data using the adjoint method. Two cases have been investigated: (1) the production rate of POC is set to be proportional to export production (EP) and the seasonal changes are assumed sinusoidal (meridionally varying amplitude and phase), and (2) the POC production rate is linked to primary production rates (literature). Both cases were run with the same initial state and model settings, and show total cost function decreases of 12 and 95%, respectively. The POC misfit term alone decreased by 75 and 99.8%. The integrated annual global POC exports of the two cases are 9.9 and 12.3 Gt C yr −1 , respectively. Overall, the remaining POC and phosphate misfits of both solutions are considered too large, and the difference fields still exhibit significant systematic geographical patterns. This indicates that the present model runs are too simplistic and do not fully explain the data. Further, more refined model setups are needed.

Description: Simplified PRBMs of spatial compliant multi-beam modules for planar motion Mechanical Sciences, 4, 311-318, 2013 Author(s): G. Hao PRBMs (pseudo-rigid-body models) have been becoming important engineering technologies/methods in the field of compliant mechanisms to simplify the design and analysis through the use of the knowledge body of rigid-body mechanisms coupling with springs. This article addresses the PRBMs of spatial multi-beam modules for planar motion, which are composed of three or more symmetrical wire/slender beams parallel to each other where the planar twisting DOF (degree of freedom) is assumed to be very small for specific applications/loading conditions. Simplified PRBMs are firstly proposed through replacing each beam in spatial multi-beam module with a rigid-body link plus two identical spherical joints at its two ends. The characteristics factor, bending stiffness and twisting stiffness for the spherical joint are determined. Load-displacement equations are then derived for a class of spatial multi-beam modules and general spatial multi-beam modules using the virtual work principle and kinematic relationships. Finally, nonlinear FEA (finite element analysis) is employed with comparisons with the PRBMs. The present PRBMs have shown the ability to predict the primary nonlinear constraint characteristics such as load-stiffening effect, cross-axis coupling in the two primary translational directions and buckling load.

Description: Regional CO 2 flux estimates for 2009–2010 based on GOSAT and ground-based CO 2 observations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9351-9373, 2013 Author(s): S. Maksyutov, H. Takagi, V. K. Valsala, M. Saito, T. Oda, T. Saeki, D. A. Belikov, R. Saito, A. Ito, Y. Yoshida, I. Morino, O. Uchino, R. J. Andres, and T. Yokota We present the application of a global carbon cycle modeling system to the estimation of monthly regional CO 2 fluxes from the column-averaged mole fractions of CO 2 ( X CO 2 ) retrieved from spectral observations made by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The regional flux estimates are to be publicly disseminated as the GOSAT Level 4 data product. The forward modeling components of the system include an atmospheric tracer transport model, an anthropogenic emissions inventory, a terrestrial biosphere exchange model, and an oceanic flux model. The atmospheric tracer transport was simulated using isentropic coordinates in the stratosphere and was tuned to reproduce the age of air. We used a fossil fuel emission inventory based on large point source data and observations of nighttime lights. The terrestrial biospheric model was optimized by fitting model parameters to observed atmospheric CO 2 seasonal cycle, net primary production data, and a biomass distribution map. The oceanic surface p CO 2 distribution was estimated with a 4-D variational data assimilation system based on reanalyzed ocean currents. Monthly CO 2 fluxes of 64 sub-continental regions, between June 2009 and May 2010, were estimated from GOSAT FTS SWIR Level 2 X CO 2 retrievals (ver. 02.00) gridded to 5° × 5° cells and averaged on a monthly basis and monthly-mean GLOBALVIEW-CO 2 data. Our result indicated that adding the GOSAT X CO 2 retrievals to the GLOBALVIEW data in the flux estimation brings changes to fluxes of tropics and other remote regions where the surface-based data are sparse. The uncertainties of these remote fluxes were reduced by as much as 60% through such addition. Optimized fluxes estimated for many of these regions, were brought closer to the prior fluxes by the addition of the GOSAT retrievals. In most of the regions and seasons considered here, the estimated fluxes fell within the range of natural flux variabilities estimated with the component models.

Description: Global ozone–CO correlations from OMI and AIRS: constraints on tropospheric ozone sources Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9321-9335, 2013 Author(s): P. S. Kim, D. J. Jacob, X. Liu, J. X. Warner, K. Yang, K. Chance, V. Thouret, and P. Nedelec We present a global data set of free tropospheric ozone–CO correlations with 2° × 2.5° spatial resolution from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite instruments for each season of 2008. OMI and AIRS have near-daily global coverage of ozone and CO respectively and observe coincident scenes with similar vertical sensitivities. The resulting ozone–CO correlations are highly statistically significant (positive or negative) in most regions of the world, and are less noisy than previous satellite-based studies that used sparser data. Comparison with ozone–CO correlations and regression slopes ( d O 3 / d CO) from MOZAIC (Measurements of OZone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by in-service AIrbus airCraft) aircraft profiles shows good general agreement. We interpret the observed ozone–CO correlations with the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System)-Chem chemical transport model to infer constraints on ozone sources. Driving GEOS-Chem with different meteorological fields generally shows consistent ozone–CO correlation patterns, except in some tropical regions where the correlations are strongly sensitive to model transport error associated with deep convection. GEOS-Chem reproduces the general structure of the observed ozone–CO correlations and regression slopes, although there are some large regional discrepancies. We examine the model sensitivity of d O 3 / d CO to different ozone sources (combustion, biosphere, stratosphere, and lightning NO x ) by correlating the ozone change from that source to CO from the standard simulation. The model reproduces the observed positive d O 3 / d CO in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere in spring–summer, driven by combustion sources. Stratospheric influence there is also associated with a positive d O 3 / d CO because of the interweaving of stratospheric downwelling with continental outflow. The well-known ozone maximum over the tropical South Atlantic is associated with negative d O 3 / d CO in the observations; this feature is reproduced in GEOS-Chem and supports a dominant contribution from lightning to the ozone maximum. A major model discrepancy is found over the northeastern Pacific in summer–fall where d O 3 / d CO is positive in the observations but negative in the model, for all ozone sources. We suggest that this reflects a model overestimate of lightning at northern midlatitudes combined with an underestimate of the East Asian CO source.

Description: Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4 Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5391-5438, 2013 Author(s): M.-N. Woillez, G. Levavasseur, A.-L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, and M.-F. Sánchez-Goñi The relationships between climate, vegetation and fires are a major subject of investigation in the context of climate change. In southern Africa, fire is known to play a crucial role in the existence of grasslands and Mediterranean-like biomes. Microcharcoal-based reconstructions of past fire activity in that region have shown a tight correlation between grass-fueled fires and the precessional cycle, with maximum fire activity during maxima of the climatic precession index. These changes have been interpreted as the result of changes in fuel load in response to precipitation changes in eastern southern Africa. Here we use the general circulation model IPSL_CM5A and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ-LMfire to investigate the response of climate, vegetation and fire activity to precession changes in southern Africa during Marine Isotopic Stage 4. We perform two climatic simulations, for a maximum and minimum of the precession index, and use a statistical downscaling method to increase the spatial resolution of the IPSL_CM5A outputs over southern Africa and perform high-resolution simulations of the vegetation and fire activity. Our results show an anti-correlation between the North and South African monsoons in response to precession changes. A decrease of the precession climatic index leads to a precipitation decrease in the summer rainfall area of southern Africa. The drying of climate leads to a decrease of vegetation cover and fire activity. Our results are in qualitative agreement with data and confirm that fire activity in southern Africa is strongly dependent on the vegetation type.

Description: Snow on the Ross Ice Shelf: comparison of reanalyses and observations from automatic weather stations The Cryosphere, 7, 1399-1410, 2013 Author(s): L. Cohen and S. Dean Snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWS) around the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica, are used to provide a new set of ground-based observations which are compared to precipitation from the ECMWF ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-2 datasets. The high temporal resolution of the AWS snow accumulation measurements allow for an event-based comparison of reanalyses precipitation to the in situ observations. Snow accumulation records from nine AWS provide multiple years of accumulation data between 2008 and 2012 over a relatively large, homogeneous region of Antarctica, and also provide the basis for a statistical evaluation of accumulation and precipitation events. The complex effects of wind on snow accumulation (which can both limit and enhance accumulation) complicate the use of the accumulation measurements, but this analysis shows that they can provide a valuable source of ground-based observations for comparisons to modelled precipitation on synoptic timescales. The analysis shows that ERA-Interim reproduces more precipitation events than NCEP-2, and these events correspond to an average 8.2% more precipitation. Significant correlations between reanalyses and AWS event sizes are seen at several stations and show that ERA-Interim consistently produces larger precipitation events than NCEP-2.

Description: The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos Aires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. Kucienska On 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close the two international airports. The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash, but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure. Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult, suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume. Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei (CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the average background values by more than one standard deviation during the events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO 2 , while the anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm. Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present.

Description: Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013 Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. Archambeau Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

Description: Uptake of phytodetritus by benthic foraminifera under oxygen depletion at the Indian Margin (Arabian Sea) Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15305-15335, 2013 Author(s): A. J. Enge, U. Witte, M. Kucera, and P. Heinz Benthic foraminifera in sediments on the Indian margin of the Arabian Sea where the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) impinges on the continental slope are exposed to particularly severe levels of oxygen depletion. Food supply for the benthic community is high but delivered in distinct pulses during upwelling and water mixing events associated with summer and winter monsoon periods. In order to investigate the response by benthic foraminifera to such pulsed food delivery under oxygen concentrations of less than 0.1 mL L −1 (4.5 μmol L −1 ), an in situ isotope labeling experiment ( 13 C, 15 N) was performed at the western continental slope of India at 540 m water depth (OMZ core region). The assemblage of living foraminifera (〉125 μm) in the uppermost centimeter at this depth is characterized by an unexpectedly high population density of 3982 ind. 10 cm −2 and a strong dominance by few calcareous species. For the experiment, we concentrated on the nine most abundant taxa, which constitute 93% of the entire foraminifera population at 0–1 cm sediment depth. Increased concentrations of 13 C and 15 N in the cytoplasm indicate that all investigated taxa took up the labeled phytodetritus during the 4 day experimental phase. In total, these nine species had assimilated 113.8 mg C m −2 (17.5% of the total added carbon). The uptake of nitrogen by the three most abundant taxa ( Bolivina aff. B. dilatata , Cassidulina sp., Bulimina gibba ) was 2.7 mg N m −2 (2% of the total added nitrogen) and showed the successful application of 15 N as tracer in foraminiferal studies. The short-term response to the offered phytodetritus varied largely among foraminiferal species with Uvigerina schwageri being by far the most important species in short-term processing whereas the most abundant taxa Bolivina aff. B. dilatata and Cassidulina sp. showed comparably low uptake of the offered food. We suggest that the observed species-specific differences are related to individual biomass of species and to specific feeding preferences. The high numbers of living foraminifera and their rapid response to deposited fresh phytodetritus demonstrate the importance of foraminifera in short-term carbon cycling under oxygen-depleted conditions. We propose that foraminifera at the studied site benefit from unique adaptations in their metabolisms to nearly anoxic conditions as well as from the exclusion of macrofauna and the resulting relaxation of competition for food and low predation pressure.

Description: Validation and empirical correction of MODIS AOT and AE over ocean Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2455-2475, 2013 Author(s): N. A. J. Schutgens, M. Nakata, and T. Nakajima We present a validation study of Collection 5 MODIS level 2 Aqua and Terra AOT (aerosol optical thickness) and AE (Ångström exponent) over ocean by comparison to coastal and island AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) sites for the years 2003–2009. We show that MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) AOT exhibits significant biases due to wind speed and cloudiness of the observed scene, while MODIS AE, although overall unbiased, exhibits less spatial contrast on global scales than the AERONET observations. The same behaviour can be seen when MODIS AOT is compared against Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data, suggesting that the spatial coverage of our datasets does not preclude global conclusions. Thus, we develop empirical correction formulae for MODIS AOT and AE that significantly improve agreement of MODIS and AERONET observations. We show these correction formulae to be robust. Finally, we study random errors in the corrected MODIS AOT and AE and show that they mainly depend on AOT itself, although small contributions are present due to wind speed and cloud fraction in AOT random errors and due to AE and cloud fraction in AE random errors. Our analysis yields significantly higher random AOT errors than the official MODIS error estimate (0.03 + 0.05 τ), while random AE errors are smaller than might be expected. This new dataset of bias-corrected MODIS AOT and AE over ocean is intended for aerosol model validation and assimilation studies, but also has consequences as a stand-alone observational product. For instance, the corrected dataset suggests that much less fine mode aerosol is transported across the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

Description: Emission ratio and isotopic signatures of molecular hydrogen emissions from tropical biomass burning Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9401-9413, 2013 Author(s): F. A. Haumann, A. M. Batenburg, G. Pieterse, C. Gerbig, M. C. Krol, and T. Röckmann In this study, we identify a biomass-burning signal in molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) over the Amazonian tropical rainforest. To quantify this signal, we measure the mixing ratios of H 2 and several other species as well as the H 2 isotopic composition in air samples that were collected in the BARCA (Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia) aircraft campaign during the dry season. We derive a relative H 2 emission ratio with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) of 0.31 ± 0.04 ppb ppb −1 and an isotopic source signature of −280 ± 41‰ in the air masses influenced by tropical biomass burning. In order to retrieve a clear source signal that is not influenced by the soil uptake of H 2 , we exclude samples from the atmospheric boundary layer. This procedure is supported by data from a global chemistry transport model. The ΔH 2 / ΔCO emission ratio is significantly lower than some earlier estimates for the tropical rainforest. In addition, our results confirm the lower values of the previously conflicting estimates of the H 2 isotopic source signature from biomass burning. These values for the emission ratio and isotopic source signatures of H 2 from tropical biomass burning can be used in future bottom-up and top-down approaches aiming to constrain the strength of the biomass-burning source for H 2 . Hitherto, these two quantities relied only on combustion experiments or on statistical relations, since no direct signal had been obtained from in-situ observations.

Description: Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea ice in late summer Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9379-9399, 2013 Author(s): M. D. Shupe, P. O. G. Persson, I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, J. Sedlar, T. Mauritsen, S. Sjogren, and C. Leck Observations from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), in the central Arctic sea-ice pack in late summer 2008, provide a detailed view of cloud–atmosphere–surface interactions and vertical mixing processes over the sea-ice environment. Measurements from a suite of ground-based remote sensors, near-surface meteorological and aerosol instruments, and profiles from radiosondes and a helicopter are combined to characterize a week-long period dominated by low-level, mixed-phase, stratocumulus clouds. Detailed case studies and statistical analyses are used to develop a conceptual model for the cloud and atmosphere structure and their interactions in this environment. Clouds were persistent during the period of study, having qualities that suggest they were sustained through a combination of advective influences and in-cloud processes, with little contribution from the surface. Radiative cooling near cloud top produced buoyancy-driven, turbulent eddies that contributed to cloud formation and created a cloud-driven mixed layer. The depth of this mixed layer was related to the amount of turbulence and condensed cloud water. Coupling of this cloud-driven mixed layer to the surface boundary layer was primarily determined by proximity. For 75% of the period of study, the primary stratocumulus cloud-driven mixed layer was decoupled from the surface and typically at a warmer potential temperature. Since the near-surface temperature was constrained by the ocean–ice mixture, warm temperatures aloft suggest that these air masses had not significantly interacted with the sea-ice surface. Instead, back-trajectory analyses suggest that these warm air masses advected into the central Arctic Basin from lower latitudes. Moisture and aerosol particles likely accompanied these air masses, providing necessary support for cloud formation. On the occasions when cloud–surface coupling did occur, back trajectories indicated that these air masses advected at low levels, while mixing processes kept the mixed layer in equilibrium with the near-surface environment. Rather than contributing buoyancy forcing for the mixed-layer dynamics, the surface instead simply appeared to respond to the mixed-layer processes aloft. Clouds in these cases often contained slightly higher condensed water amounts, potentially due to additional moisture sources from below.

Description: Permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia with 0.5-degree spatial resolution for model evaluation Earth System Science Data, 5, 305-310, 2013 Author(s): C. Beer, A. N. Fedorov, and Y. Torgovkin Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991), rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5-degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001-degree spatial resolution. The gridded datasets can be accessed at the PANGAEA repository ( doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.808240 ). Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the sporadic permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.

Description: A general treatment of snow microstructure exemplified by an improved relation for thermal conductivity The Cryosphere, 7, 1473-1480, 2013 Author(s): H. Löwe, F. Riche, and M. Schneebeli Finding relevant microstructural parameters beyond density is a longstanding problem which hinders the formulation of accurate parameterizations of physical properties of snow. Towards a remedy, we address the effective thermal conductivity tensor of snow via anisotropic, second-order bounds. The bound provides an explicit expression for the thermal conductivity and predicts the relevance of a microstructural anisotropy parameter Q , which is given by an integral over the two-point correlation function and unambiguously defined for arbitrary snow structures. For validation we compiled a comprehensive data set of 167 snow samples. The set comprises individual samples of various snow types and entire time series of metamorphism experiments under isothermal and temperature gradient conditions. All samples were digitally reconstructed by micro-computed tomography to perform microstructure-based simulations of heat transport. The incorporation of anisotropy via Q considerably reduces the root mean square error over the usual density-based parameterization. The systematic quantification of anisotropy via the two-point correlation function suggests a generalizable route to incorporate microstructure into snowpack models. We indicate the inter-relation of the conductivity to other properties and outline a potential impact of Q on dielectric constant, permeability and adsorption rate of diffusing species in the pore space.

Description: Impacts of different plant functional types on ambient ozone predictions in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas (SMA), Korea Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 24925-24973, 2013 Author(s): H.-K. Kim, J.-H. Woo, R. S. Park, C. H. Song, J.-H. Kim, S.-J. Ban, and J.-H. Park Plant functional type (PFT) distributions affect the results of biogenic emission modeling as well as O 3 and PM simulations using chemistry-transport models (CTMs). This paper analyzes the variations of both surface biogenic VOC emissions and O 3 concentrations due to changes in the PFT distributions in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas, Korea. Also, this paper attempts to provide important implications for biogenic emissions modeling studies for CTM simulations. MM5-MEGAN-SMOKE-CMAQ model simulations were implemented over the Seoul Metropolitan Areas in Korea to predict surface O 3 concentrations for the period of 1 May to 31 June 2008. Starting from MEGAN biogenic emissions analysis with three different sources of PFT input data, US EPA CMAQ O 3 simulation results were evaluated by surface O 3 monitoring datasets and further considered on the basis of geospatial and statistical analyses. The three PFT datasets considered were "(1)KORPFT", developed with a region specific vegetation database; (2) CDP, adopted from US NCAR; and (3) MODIS, reclassified from the NASA Terra and Aqua combined land cover products. Comparisons of MEGAN biogenic emission results with the three different PFT data showed that broadleaf trees (BT) are the most significant contributor, followed by needleleaf trees (NT), shrub (SB), and herbaceous plants (HB) to the total biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). In addition, isoprene from BT and terpene from NT were recognized as significant primary and secondary BVOC species in terms of BVOC emissions distributions and O 3 -forming potentials in the study domain. Multiple regression analyses with the different PFT data (δO 3 vs. δPFTs) suggest that KORPFT can provide reasonable information to the framework of MEGAN biogenic emissions modeling and CTM O 3 predictions. Analyses of the CMAQ performance statistics suggest that deviations of BT areas can significantly affect CMAQ isoprene and O 3 predictions. From further evaluations of the isoprene and O 3 prediction results, we explored the PFT area-loss artifact that occurs due to geographical disparity between the PFT and leaf area index distributions, and can cause increased bias in CMAQ O 3 . Thus, the PFT-loss artifact must be a source of limitation in the MEGAN biogenic emission modeling and the CTM O 3 simulation results. Time changes of CMAQ O 3 distributions with the different PFT scenarios suggest that hourly and local impacts from the different PFT distributions on occasional inter-deviations of O 3 are quite noticeable, reaching up to 10 ppb. Exponentially diverging hourly BVOC emissions and O 3 concentrations with increasing ambient temperature suggest that the use of representative PFT distributions becomes more critical for O 3 air quality modeling (or forecasting) in support of air quality decision-making and human health studies.

Description: Multiannual changes of CO 2 emissions in China: indirect estimates derived from satellite measurements of tropospheric NO 2 columns Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9415-9438, 2013 Author(s): E. V. Berezin, I. B. Konovalov, P. Ciais, A. Richter, S. Tao, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Beekmann, and E.-D. Schulze Multiannual satellite measurements of tropospheric NO 2 columns are used for evaluation of CO 2 emission changes in China in the period from 1996 to 2008. Indirect top-down annual estimates of CO 2 emissions are derived from the satellite NO 2 column measurements by means of a simple inverse modeling procedure involving simulations performed with the CHIMERE mesoscale chemistry–transport model and the CO 2 -to-NO x emission ratios from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) global anthropogenic emission inventory and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS). Exponential trends in the normalized time series of annual emissions are evaluated separately for the periods from 1996 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2008. The results indicate that the both periods manifest strong positive trends in the CO 2 emissions, and that the trend in the second period was significantly larger than the trend in the first period. Specifically, the trends in the first and second periods are best estimated to be in the range from 3.7 to 8.3 and from 11.0 to 13.2% per year, respectively, taking into account statistical uncertainties and differences between the CO 2 -to-NO x emission ratios from the EDGAR and REAS inventories. Comparison of our indirect top-down estimates of the CO 2 emission changes with the corresponding bottom-up estimates provided by the EDGAR (version 4.2) and Global Carbon Project (GCP) glomal emission inventories reveals that while acceleration of the CO 2 emission growth in the considered period is a common feature of both kinds of estimates, nonlinearity in the CO 2 emission changes may be strongly exaggerated in the global emission inventories. Specifically, the atmospheric NO 2 observations do not confirm the existence of a sharp bend in the emission inventory data time series in the period from 2000 to 2002. A significant quantitative difference is revealed between the bottom-up and indirect top-down estimates of the CO 2 emission trend in the period from 1996 to 2001 (specifically, the trend was not positive according to the global emission inventories, but is strongly positive in our estimates). These results confirm the findings of earlier studies that indicated probable large uncertainties in the energy production and other activity data for China from international energy statistics used as the input information in the global emission inventories. For the period from 2001 to 2008, some quantitative differences between the different kinds of estimates are found to be in the range of possible systematic uncertainties associated with our estimation method. In general, satellite measurements of tropospheric NO 2 are shown to be a useful source of information on CO 2 sources collocated with sources of nitrogen oxides; the corresponding potential of these measurements should be exploited further in future studies.

Description: Incidence of rough and irregular atmospheric ice particles from Small Ice Detector 3 measurements Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 24975-25012, 2013 Author(s): Z. Ulanowski, P. H. Kaye, E. Hirst, R. S. Greenaway, R. J. Cotton, E. Hesse, and C. T. Collier The knowledge of properties of ice crystals such as size, shape, concavity and roughness is critical in the context of radiative properties of ice and mixed phase clouds. Limitations of current cloud probes to measure these properties can be circumvented by acquiring two-dimensional light scattering patterns instead of particle images. Such patterns were obtained in situ for the first time using the Small Ice Detector 3 (SID-3) probe during several flights in a variety of mid-latitude mixed phase and cirrus clouds. The patterns are analyzed using several measures of pattern texture, selected to reveal the magnitude of particle roughness or complexity. The retrieved roughness is compared to values obtained from a range of well-characterized test particles in the laboratory. It is found that typical in situ roughness corresponds to that found in the rougher subset of the test particles, and sometimes even extends beyond the most extreme values found in the laboratory. In this study we do not differentiate between small-scale, fine surface roughness and large-scale crystal complexity. Instead, we argue that both can have similar manifestations in terms of light scattering properties and also similar causes. Overall, the in situ data is consistent with ice particles with highly irregular or rough surfaces being dominant. Similar magnitudes of roughness were found in growth and sublimation zones of cirrus. The roughness was found to be negatively correlated with the halo ratio, but not with other thermodynamic or microphysical properties found in situ. Slightly higher roughness was observed in cirrus forming in clean oceanic airmasses than in a continental, polluted one. Overall, the roughness and complexity is expected to lead to increased shortwave cloud reflectivity, in comparison with cirrus composed of more regular, smooth ice crystal shapes. These findings put into question suggestions that climate could be modified through aerosol seeding to reduce cirrus cover and optical depth, as the seeding may result in decreased shortwave reflectivity.

Description: Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8509-8541, 2013 Author(s): A. Määttä, M. Laine, J. Tamminen, and J. P. Veefkind We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Description: Summertime canopy albedo is sensitive to forest thinning Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15373-15414, 2013 Author(s): J. Otto, D. Berveiller, F.-M. Bréon, N. Delpierre, G. Geppert, A. Granier, W. Jans, A. Knohl, A. Kuusk, B. Longdoz, E. Moors, M. Mund, B. Pinty, M.-J. Schelhaas, and S. Luyssaert Despite an emerging body of literature linking canopy albedo to forest management, understanding of the process is still fragmented. We combined a stand-level forest gap model with a canopy radiation transfer model and satellite-derived model parameters to quantify the effects of forest thinning, that is removing trees at a certain time during the forest rotation, on summertime canopy albedo. The effects of different forest species (pine, beech, oak) and four thinning strategies (light to intense thinning regimes) were examined. During stand establishment, summertime canopy albedo is driven by tree species. In the later stages of stand development, the effect of tree species on summertime canopy albedo decreases in favour of an increasing influence of forest thinning on summertime canopy albedo. These trends continue until the end of the rotation where thinning explains up to 50% of the variance in near-infrared canopy albedo and up to 70% of the variance in visible canopy albedo. More intense thinning lowers the summertime shortwave albedo in the canopy by as much as 0.02 compared to unthinned forest. The structural changes associated with forest thinning can be described by the change in LAI in combination with crown volume. However, forests with identical canopy structure can have different summertime albedo values due to their location: the further north a forest is situated, the more the solar zenith angle increases and thus the higher is the summertime canopy albedo, independent of the wavelength. Despite the increase of absolute summertime canopy albedo values with latitude, the difference in canopy albedo between managed and unmanaged forest decreases with increasing latitude. Forest management thus strongly altered summertime forest albedo.

Description: Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains The Cryosphere, 7, 1527-1541, 2013 Author(s): S. Adhikari and S. J. Marshall Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging from simple shear deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed) result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year). Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. Although similar studies on other glaciers are essential to generalize such findings, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modeling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low and where mass balance changes dominate over ice dynamics in determining glacier geometry.

Description: Meteorological drivers of ablation processes on a cold glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile The Cryosphere, 7, 1513-1526, 2013 Author(s): S. MacDonell, C. Kinnard, T. Mölg, L. Nicholson, and J. Abermann Meteorological and surface change measurements collected during a 2.5 yr period are used to calculate surface mass and energy balances at 5324 m a.s.l. on Guanaco Glacier, a cold-based glacier in the semi-arid Andes of Chile. Meteorological conditions are marked by extremely low vapour pressures (annual mean of 1.1 hPa), strong winds (annual mean of 10 m s −1 ), shortwave radiation receipt persistently close to the theoretical site maximum during cloud-free days (mean annual 295 W m −2 ; summer hourly maximum 1354 W m −2 ) and low precipitation rates (mean annual 45 mm w.e.). Snowfall occurs sporadically throughout the year and is related to frontal events in the winter and convective storms during the summer months. Net shortwave radiation provides the greatest source of energy to the glacier surface, and net longwave radiation dominates energy losses. The turbulent latent heat flux is always negative, which means that the surface is always losing mass via sublimation, which is the main form of ablation at the site. Sublimation rates are most strongly correlated with net shortwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, albedo and vapour pressure. Low glacier surface temperatures restrict melting for much of the period, however episodic melting occurs during the austral summer, when warm, humid, calm and high pressure conditions restrict sublimation and make more energy available for melting. Low accumulation (131 mm w.e. over the period) and relatively high ablation (1435 mm w.e.) means that mass change over the period was negative (−1304 mm w.e.), which continued the negative trend recorded in the region over the last few decades.

Description: Antarctic ice-mass balance 2003 to 2012: regional reanalysis of GRACE satellite gravimetry measurements with improved estimate of glacial-isostatic adjustment based on GPS uplift rates The Cryosphere, 7, 1499-1512, 2013 Author(s): I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann We present regional-scale mass balances for 25 drainage basins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) from satellite observations of the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for time period January 2003 to September 2012. Satellite gravimetry estimates of the AIS mass balance are strongly influenced by mass movement in the Earth interior caused by ice advance and retreat during the last glacial cycle. Here, we develop an improved glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) estimate for Antarctica using newly available GPS uplift rates, allowing us to more accurately separate GIA-induced trends in the GRACE gravity fields from those caused by current imbalances of the AIS. Our revised GIA estimate is considerably lower than previous predictions, yielding an estimate of apparent mass change of 53 ± 18 Gt yr −1 . Therefore, our AIS mass balance of −114 ± 23 Gt yr −1 is less negative than previous GRACE estimates. The northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea sector exhibit the largest mass loss (−26 ± 3 Gt yr −1 and −127 ± 7 Gt yr −1 , respectively). In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits a slightly positive mass balance (26 ± 13 Gt yr −1 ), which is, however, mostly the consequence of compensating mass anomalies in Dronning Maud and Enderby Land (positive) and Wilkes and George V Land (negative) due to interannual accumulation variations. In total, 6% of the area constitutes about half the AIS imbalance, contributing 151 ± 7 Gt yr −1 (ca. 0.4 mm yr −1 ) to global mean sea-level change. Most of this imbalance is caused by ice-dynamic speed-up expected to prevail in the near future.

Description: The effect of training image and secondary data integration with multiple-point geostatistics in groundwater modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11829-11860, 2013 Author(s): X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, and K. H. Jensen Multiple-point geostatistic simulation (MPS) has recently become popular in stochastic hydrogeology, primarily because of its capability to derive multivariate distributions from the training image (TI). However, its application in three dimensional simulations has been constrained by the difficulty of constructing 3-D TI. The object-based TiGenerator may be a useful tool in this regard; yet the sensitivity of model predictions to the training image has not been documented. Another issue in MPS is the integration of multiple geophysical data. The best way to retrieve and incorporate information from high resolution geophysical data is still under discussion. This work shows that TI from TiGenerator delivers acceptable results when used for groundwater modeling, although the TI directly converted from high resolution geophysical data leads to better simulation. The model results also indicate that soft conditioning in MPS is a convenient and efficient way of integrating secondary data such as 3-D airborne electromagnetic data, but over conditioning has to be avoided.

Description: Multi-decadal river flows variations in France Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11861-11900, 2013 Author(s): J. Boé and F. Habets In this article, multi-decadal variations in French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations on the historical period, especially in spring. Differences of means between two 21 yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40% are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flows variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the East Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of decadal variability in the North Atlantic/Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff to precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flows variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Description: Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivity Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013 Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di Maio Soil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced landslides occur periodically.

Description: Enhancing the representation of subgrid land surface characteristics in land surface models Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1609-1622, 2013 Author(s): Y. Ke, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, and H. Li Land surface heterogeneity has long been recognized as important to represent in the land surface models. In most existing land surface models, the spatial variability of surface cover is represented as subgrid composition of multiple surface cover types, although subgrid topography also has major controls on surface processes. In this study, we developed a new subgrid classification method (SGC) that accounts for variability of both topography and vegetation cover. Each model grid cell was represented with a variable number of elevation classes and each elevation class was further described by a variable number of vegetation types optimized for each model grid given a predetermined total number of land response units (LRUs). The subgrid structure of the Community Land Model (CLM) was used to illustrate the newly developed method in this study. Although the new method increases the computational burden in the model simulation compared to the CLM subgrid vegetation representation, it greatly reduced the variations of elevation within each subgrid class and is able to explain at least 80% of the total subgrid plant functional types (PFTs). The new method was also evaluated against two other subgrid methods (SGC1 and SGC2) that assigned fixed numbers of elevation and vegetation classes for each model grid (SGC1: M elevation bands– N PFTs method; SGC2: N PFTs– M elevation bands method). Implemented at five model resolutions (0.1°, 0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0°and 2.0°) with three maximum-allowed total number of LRUs (i.e., N LRU of 24, 18 and 12) over North America (NA), the new method yielded more computationally efficient subgrid representation compared to SGC1 and SGC2, particularly at coarser model resolutions and moderate computational intensity ( N LRU = 18). It also explained the most PFTs and elevation variability that is more homogeneously distributed spatially. The SGC method will be implemented in CLM over the NA continent to assess its impacts on simulating land surface processes.

Description: Non-extensivity and long-range correlations in the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift (Greece) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20, 713-724, 2013 Author(s): G. Michas, F. Vallianatos, and P. Sammonds In the present work the statistical properties of the earthquake activity in a highly seismic region, the West Corinth rift (Central Greece), are being studied by means of generalized statistical physics. By using a dataset that covers the period 2001–2008, we investigate the earthquake energy distribution and the distribution of the time intervals (interevent times) between the successive events. As has been reported previously, these distributions exhibit complex statistical properties and fractality. By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), a well-established method for detection of long-range correlations in non-stationary signals, it is shown that long-range correlations are also present in the earthquake activity. The existence of these properties motivates us to use non-extensive statistical physics (NESP) to investigate the statistical properties of the frequency-magnitude and the interevent time distributions, along with other well-known relations in seismology, such as the gamma distribution for interevent times. The results of the analysis indicate that the statistical properties of the earthquake activity can be successfully reproduced by means of NESP and that the earthquake activity at the West Corinth rift is correlated at all-time scales.

Description: Air quality over Europe: modelling gaseous and particulate pollutants Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9661-9673, 2013 Author(s): E. Tagaris, R. E. P. Sotiropoulou, N. Gounaris, S. Andronopoulos, and D. Vlachogiannis Air quality over Europe using Models-3 (i.e., CMAQ, MM5, SMOKE) modelling system is performed for winter (i.e., January 2006) and summer (i.e., July 2006) months with the 2006 TNO gridded anthropogenic emissions database. Higher ozone mixing ratios are predicted in southern Europe while higher NO 2 levels are simulated over western Europe. Elevated SO 2 values are simulated over eastern Europe and higher PM 2.5 concentrations over eastern and western Europe. Regional average results suggest that NO 2 and PM 2.5 are underpredicted, SO 2 is overpredicted, while Max8hrO 3 is overpredicted for low mixing ratios and is underpredicted for the higher mixing ratios. However, in a number of countries observed and predicted values are in good agreement for the pollutants examined here. Speciated PM 2.5 components suggest that NO 3 is dominant during winter over western Europe and in a few eastern countries due to the high NO 2 mixing ratios. During summer NO 3 is dominant only in regions with elevated NH 3 emissions. For the rest of the domain SO 4 is dominant. Low OC concentrations are simulated mainly due to the uncertain representation of SOA formation.

Description: On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9641-9660, 2013 Author(s): B. M. Monge-Sanz, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Untch, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Rap, and A. J. Simmons This study evaluates effects and applications of a new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane and water vapour. The new scheme (CoMeCAT) is derived from a 3-D full-chemistry-transport model (CTM). It is suitable for any global model, and is shown here to produce realistic profiles in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D CTM and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) general circulation model (GCM). Results from the new scheme are in good agreement with the full-chemistry CTM CH 4 field and with observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). The scheme is also used to derive stratospheric water increments, which in the CTM produce vertical and latitudinal H 2 O variations in fair agreement with satellite observations. Stratospheric H 2 O distributions in the ECMWF GCM show realistic overall features, although concentrations are smaller than in the CTM run (up to 0.5 ppmv smaller above 10 hPa). The potential of the new CoMeCAT tracer for evaluating stratospheric transport is exploited to assess the impacts of nudging the free-running GCM to ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The nudged GCM shows similar transport patterns to the offline CTM forced by the corresponding reanalysis data. The new scheme also impacts radiation and temperature in the model. Compared to the default CH 4 climatology and H 2 O used by the ECMWF radiation scheme, the main effect on ECMWF temperatures when considering both CH 4 and H 2 O from CoMeCAT is a decrease of up to 1.0 K over the tropical mid/low stratosphere. The effect of using the CoMeCAT scheme for radiative forcing (RF) calculations is investigated using the offline Edwards–Slingo radiative transfer model. Compared to the default model option of a tropospheric global 3-D CH 4 value, the CoMeCAT distribution produces an overall change in the annual mean net RF of up to −30 mW m −2 .

Description: A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9623-9639, 2013 Author(s): S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, S. Flückiger, A. M. Fischer, R. Bleisch, G. Bodeker, B. Hassler, E. Rozanov, and M. Schraner We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Description: Factors controlling pollutant plume length downwind of major roadways in nocturnal surface inversions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 25253-25290, 2013 Author(s): W. Choi, A. M. Winer, and S. E. Paulson A curve fit method using a Gaussian dispersion model solution was successfully applied to obtain both dispersion coefficients and a particle number emission factor (PNEF) directly from ultrafine particle (UFP) concentration profiles observed downwind of major roadways in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). The Briggs' formulation for the vertical dispersion parameter σ z was adopted in this study due to its better performance in describing the observed profiles compared to other formulations examined. The two dispersion coefficients in Briggs' formulation, α and β, ranged from 0.02 to 0.07 and from −0.5 × 10 −3 to 2.8 × 10 −3 , respectively, for the four freeway transects studied and are significantly different for freeways passing over vs. under the street on which measurements of the freeway plume were made. These ranges are wider than literature values for α and β under stable conditions. The dispersion coefficients derived from observations showed strong correlations with both surface meteorology (wind speed/direction, temperature, and air stability) and differences in concentrations between the background and plume peak. The relationships were applied to predict freeway plume transport using a multivariate regression, and produced excellent agreement with observed UFP concentration profiles. The mean PNEF for a mixed vehicle fleet on the four freeways was estimated as 1.2 × 10 14 particles mi −1 vehicle −1 , which is about 15% of the value estimated in 2001 for the I-405 freeway, implying significant reductions in UFP emissions over the past decade in the SoCAB.

Description: Summer Sea Ice Albedo in the Arctic in CMIP5 models Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 25219-25251, 2013 Author(s): T. Koenigk, A. Devasthale, and K.-G. Karlsson Spatial and temporal variations of summer sea ice albedo over the Arctic are analyzed using an ensemble of historical CMIP5 model simulations. The results are compared to the CLARA-SAL product that is based on long-term satellite observations. The summer sea ice albedo varies substantially among CMIP5 models and many models show large biases compared to the CLARA-SAL product. Single summer months show an extreme spread of ice albedo among models; July-values vary between 0.3 and 0.7 for individual models. The CMIP5 ensemble mean, however, agrees relatively well in the Central Arctic but shows too high ice albedo near the ice edges and coasts. In most models, the ice albedo is spatially too uniformly distributed. The summer to summer variations seem to be underestimated in many global models and almost no model is able to fully reproduce the temporal evolution of ice albedo throughout the summer. While the satellite observations indicate the lowest ice albedos during August, the models show minimum values in July and substantially higher values in August. Instead, the June values are often lower in the models than in the satellite observations. This is probably due to too high surface temperatures in June, leading to an early start of the melt season and too cold temperatures in August causing an earlier refreezing in the models. The summer sea ice albedo in the CMIP5 models is strongly governed by surface temperature and snow conditions, particularly during the period of melt onset in early summer and refreezing in late summer. The summer surface net solar radiation of the ice covered Arctic areas is highly related to the ice albedo in the CMIP5 models. However, the impact of the ice albedo on the sea ice conditions in the CMIP5 models is not clearly visible. This indicates the importance of other Arctic and large scale processes for the sea ice conditions.

Description: Oxygen minimum zone of the open Arabian Sea: variability of oxygen and nitrite from daily to decadal time scales Biogeosciences Discussions, 10, 15455-15517, 2013 Author(s): K. Banse, S. W. A. Naqvi, P. V. Narvekar, J. R. Postel, and D. A. Jayakumar The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the Arabian Sea is the thickest of the three oceanic OMZs, which is of global biogeochemical significance because of denitrification in the upper part leading to N 2 and N 2 O production. The residence time of the OMZ water is believed to be less than a decade. The upper few hundred meters of this zone are nearly anoxic but non-sulfidic and still support animal (metazoan) pelagic life, possibly as a result of episodic injections of O 2 by physical processes. The very low O 2 values obtained with the new STOX sensor in the eastern tropical South Pacific probably also characterize the Arabian Sea OMZ, but there is no apparent reason as to why the temporal trends of the historic data should not hold. We report on discrete measurements of dissolved O 2 and NO 2 - , besides temperature and salinity, made between 1959 and 2004 well below the tops of the sharp pycno- and oxyclines near 150, 200, 300, 400, and 500 m depth. We assemble nearly all O 2 determinations (originally, 849 values, 695 in the OMZ) by the visual endpoint detection of the iodometric Winkler procedure, which in our data base yields about 0.04 mL L −1 (∼2 μM) O 2 above the endpoint from modern automated titration methods. We find 632 values acceptable (480 from 150 stations in the OMZ). The data are grouped in zonally-paired boxes of 1° lat. and 2° long. centered at 8°, 10°, 12°, 15°, 18°, 20°, and 21° N along 65° E and 67° E. The latitudes of 8–12° N, outside the OMZ, are only treated in passing. The principal results are as follows: (1) an O 2 climatology for the upper OMZ reveals a marked seasonality at 200 to 500 m depth with O 2 levels during the northeast monsoon and spring intermonsoon season elevated over those during the southwest monsoon season (median difference, 0.08 mL L −1 [3.5 μM]). The medians of the slopes of the seasonal regressions of O 2 on year for the NE and SW monsoon seasons are −0.0043 and −0.0019 mL L −1 a −1 , respectively (−0.19 and −0.08 μM a −1 ; n = 10 and 12, differing at p = 0.01); (2) four decades of statistically significant decreases of O 2 between 15° and 20° N but a trend to a similar increase near 21° N are observed. The balance of the mechanisms that more or less annually maintain the O 2 levels are still uncertain. At least between 300 and 500 m the annual reconstitution of the decrease is inferred to be due to lateral, isopycnal re-supply of O 2 , while at 200 (250?) m it is diapycnal, most likely by eddies. Similarly, recent models show large vertical advection of O 2 well below the pycno- cum -oxycline. The spatial (within drift stations) and temporal (daily) variability in hydrography and chemistry is large also below the principal pycnocline. The seasonal change of hydrography is considerable even at 500 m. There is no trend in the redox environment for a quarter of a century at a GEOSECS station near 20° N. In the entire OMZ the slopes on year within seasons for the quite variable NO 2 - (taken as an indicator of active denitrification) do not show a clear pattern. Also, future O 2 or nutrient budgets for the OMZ should not be based on single cruises or sections obtained during one season only. Steady state cannot be assumed any longer for the intermediate layers of the central Arabian Sea.

Description: Intercontinental transport and deposition patterns of atmospheric mercury from anthropogenic emissions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 25185-25218, 2013 Author(s): L. Chen, H.-H. Wang, J.-F. Liu, W. Zhang, D. Hu, C. Chen, and X.-J. Wang Global policies that regulate anthropogenic mercury emissions to the environment require quantitative and comprehensive source–receptor relationships for mercury emissions, transport and deposition among major continental regions. In this study, we use the GEOS-Chem model to establish source–receptor relationships among eleven major continental regions worldwide. Source–receptor relationships for surface mercury concentrations (SMC) show that some regions (e.g. East Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Europe) should be responsible for their local surface Hg(II) and Hg(P) concentrations because of near-field transport and deposition contributions from their local anthropogenic emissions (up to 64% and 71% for Hg(II) and Hg(P), respectively, over East Asia). We define region of primary influence (RPI) and region of secondary influence (RSI) to establish intercontinental influence patterns. Results indicate that East Asia is SMC RPI for almost all other regions, while Europe, Russia and the Indian subcontinent also make some contributions to SMC over some receptor regions because they are dominant RSI source regions. Source–receptor relationships for mercury deposition show that approximately 16% and 17% of dry and wet deposition, respectively, over North America originate from East Asia, indicating that trans-pacific transport of East Asian emissions is the major foreign source of mercury deposition in North America. Europe, Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent are also important mercury deposition sources for some receptor regions because they are dominant RSI. We also quantify seasonal variation on mercury deposition contributions over other regions from East Asia. Results show that mercury deposition (including dry and wet) contributions from East Asia over the Northern Hemisphere receptor regions (e.g. North America, Europe, Russia, Middle East and Middle Asia) vary seasonally, with the maximum values in summer and minimum values in winter. The opposite seasonal pattern occurs on mercury dry deposition contributions over Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

Description: A data set of world-wide glacier length fluctuations The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4775-4811, 2013 Author(s): P. W. Leclercq, J. Oerlemans, H. J. Basagic, I. Bushueva, A. J. Cook, and R. Le Bris Glacier fluctuations contribute to variations in sea level and historical glacier length fluctuations are natural indicators of climate change. To study these subjects, long-term information of glacier change is needed. In this paper we present a~data set of global long-term glacier length fluctuations. The data set is a compilation of available information on changes in glacier length world-wide, including both measured and reconstructed glacier length fluctuations. All 471 length series start before 1950 and cover at least four decades. The longest record starts in 1534, but the majority of time series start after 1850. The number of available records decreases again after 1962. The data set has global coverage including records from all continents. However, the Canadian Arctic is not represented in the data set. The glacier length series show relatively small fluctuations until the mid-19th century followed by a global retreat that was strongest in the first half of the 20th century, although large variability in the length change of the different glaciers is observed. During the 20th century, calving glaciers retreated more than land terminating glaciers, but their relative length change was approximately equal. Besides calving, the glacier slope is the most important glacier property determining length change: steep glaciers have retreated less than glaciers with a gentle slope.

Description: An original interpretation of the wet edge of the surface temperature–albedo space to estimate crop evapotranspiration (SEB-1S), and its validation over an irrigated area in northwestern Mexico Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3623-3637, 2013 Author(s): O. Merlin The space defined by the pair surface temperature ( T ) and surface albedo (α), and the space defined by the pair T and fractional green vegetation cover ( f vg ) have been extensively used to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) from solar/thermal remote sensing data. In both space-based approaches, evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated as remotely sensed EF times the available energy. For a given data point in the T -α space or in the T - f vg space, EF is derived as the ratio of the distance separating the point from the line identified as the dry edge to the distance separating the dry edge and the line identified as the wet edge. The dry and wet edges are classically defined as the upper and lower limit of the spaces, respectively. When investigating side by side the T -α and the T - f vg spaces, one observes that the range covered by T values on the (classically determined) wet edge is different for both spaces. In addition, when extending the wet and dry lines of the T -α space, both lines cross at α ≈ 0.4 although the wet and dry edges of the T - f vg space never cross for 0 ≤ f vg 〈 1. In this paper, a new ET (EF) model (SEB-1S) is derived by revisiting the classical physical interpretation of the T -α space to make its wet edge consistent with that of the T - f vg space. SEB-1S is tested over a 16 km by 10 km irrigated area in northwestern Mexico during the 2007–2008 agricultural season. The classical T -α space-based model is implemented as benchmark to evaluate the performance of SEB-1S. Input data are composed of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer) thermal infrared, Formosat-2 shortwave, and station-based meteorological data. The fluxes simulated by SEB-1S and the classical T -α space-based model are compared on seven ASTER overpass dates with the in situ measurements collected at six locations within the study domain. The ET simulated by SEB-1S is significantly more accurate and robust than that predicted by the classical T -α space-based model. The correlation coefficient and slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET is improved from 0.82 to 0.93, and from 0.63 to 0.90, respectively. Moreover, constraining the wet edge using air temperature data improves the slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET.

Description: Teleconnection analysis of runoff and soil moisture over the Pearl River basin in South China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11943-11982, 2013 Author(s): J. Niu, J. Chen, and B. Sivakumar This study explores the teleconnection of two climatic patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with hydrological processes over the Pearl River basin in South China. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is used to simulate the daily hydrological processes over the basin for the study period 1952–2000, and then, using the simulation results, the time series of the monthly runoff and soil moisture anomalies for its ten sub-basins are aggregated. Wavelet analysis is performed to explore the variability properties of these time series at 49 timescales ranging from 2 months to 9 yr. Use of wavelet coherence and rank correlation method reveals that the dominant variabilities of the time series of runoff and soil moisture are basically correlated with IOD. The influences of ENSO on the terrestrial hydrological processes are mainly found in the eastern sub-basins. The teleconnections between climatic patterns and hydrological variability also serve as a reference basis for inferences on the occurrence of extreme hydrological events (e.g. floods and droughts).

Description: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3605-3622, 2013 Author(s): N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities and predictors (withdrawals vs. consumptive demands, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow) for configuring operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is with combined priorities rules (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) set up with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The options of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, of assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, are discussed.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3639-3659, 2013 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is which suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall–runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet transform tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall–runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass-filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of a data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the probability distributed model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15, 30, 45, 60, 90 and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications of the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the future is that higher sampling rates will become more widespread, and there is an urgent need for hydrologists both in academia and in the field to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting systems are explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3707-3720, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the individual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr −1 (1.35 mm d −1 ) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr −1 (34 406 km 3 yr −1 ) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.

Description: Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3695-3706, 2013 Author(s): T. R. H. Holmes, W. T. Crow, and C. Hain This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way.

Description: Designing hybrid flexure systems and elements using Freedom and Constraint Topologies Mechanical Sciences, 4, 319-331, 2013 Author(s): J. B. Hopkins In this paper we introduce the principles necessary to synthesize hybrid flexure systems and elements. Flexure systems consist of rigid bodies that are joined together by flexure elements that elastically deform to guide the system's rigid bodies with desired degrees of freedom (DOFs). The principles introduced here for synthesizing hybrid flexure systems and elements are extensions of the Freedom and Constraint Topologies (FACT) synthesis approach. FACT utilizes a comprehensive library of geometric shapes from which designers can rapidly consider and compare a multiplicity of flexure concepts that achieve any desired set of DOFs. Prior to this paper, designers primarily used these shapes to synthesize parallel and serial flexure systems and elements. With this paper, designers may now use these same shapes to synthesize more general flexures that consist of various combinations of parallel and serial systems and elements (i.e., hybrid configurations). As such, designers can access a larger body of flexure solutions that satisfy demanding design requirements. Instructions for helping designers utilize or avoid the advantages and challenges of over-, under-, and exact-constraint are also provided. Hybrid systems and elements are analysed and designed as case studies.

Description: Naphthalene SOA: redox activity and naphthoquinone gas–particle partitioning Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9731-9744, 2013 Author(s): R. D. McWhinney, S. Zhou, and J. P. D. Abbatt Chamber secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from low-NO x photooxidation of naphthalene by hydroxyl radical was examined with respect to its redox cycling behaviour using the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Naphthalene SOA was highly redox-active, consuming DTT at an average rate of 118 ± 14 pmol per minute per μg of SOA material. Measured particle-phase masses of the major previously identified redox active products, 1,2- and 1,4-naphthoquinone, accounted for only 21 ± 3% of the observed redox cycling activity. The redox-active 5-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone was identified as a new minor product of naphthalene oxidation, and including this species in redox activity predictions increased the predicted DTT reactivity to 30 ± 5% of observations. These results suggest that there are substantial unidentified redox-active SOA constituents beyond the small quinones that may be important toxic components of these particles. A gas-to-SOA particle partitioning coefficient was calculated to be (7.0 ± 2.5) × 10 −4 m 3 μg −1 for 1,4-naphthoquinone at 25 °C. This value suggests that under typical warm conditions, 1,4-naphthoquinone is unlikely to contribute strongly to redox behaviour of ambient particles, although further work is needed to determine the potential impact under conditions such as low temperatures where partitioning to the particle is more favourable. Also, higher order oxidation products that likely account for a substantial fraction of the redox cycling capability of the naphthalene SOA are likely to partition much more strongly to the particle phase.

Description: The Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI): comparative validation of GHG-CCI SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and TANSO-FTS/GOSAT CO 2 and CH 4 retrieval algorithm products with measurements from the TCCON network Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8679-8741, 2013 Author(s): B. Dils, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, O. Schneising, H. Boesch, R. Parker, S. Guerlet, I. Aben, T. Blumenstock, J. P. Burrows, A. Butz, N. M. Deutscher, C. Frankenberg, F. Hase, O. P. Hasekamp, J. Heymann, M. De Mazière, J. Notholt, R. Sussmann, T. Warneke, D. Griffith, V. Sherlock, and D. Wunch Column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and methane have been retrieved from spectra acquired by the TANSO-FTS and SCIAMACHY instruments on board GOSAT and ENVISAT using a range of European retrieval algorithms. These retrievals have been compared with data from ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The participating algorithms are the Weighting Function Modified Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) algorithm (WFMD, University of Bremen), the Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS algorithm (BESD, University of Bremen), the Iterative Maximum A Posteriori DOAS (IMAP, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Netherlands Institute for Space Research algorithm (SRON)), the proxy and full-physics versions of SRON's RemoTeC algorithm (SRPR and SRFP respectively) and the proxy and full-physics versions of the University of Leicester's adaptation of the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) algorithm (OCPR and OCFP respectively). The goal of this algorithm inter-comparison was to identify strengths and weaknesses of the various so-called Round Robin data sets generated with the various algorithms so as to determine which of the competing algorithms would proceed to the next round of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI) project, which is the generation of the so-called Climate Research Data Package (CRDP), which is the first version of the Essential Climate Variable (ECV) "Greenhouse Gases" (GHG). For CO 2 , all algorithms reach the precision requirements for inverse modelling ( 〈 8 ppb), with only WFMD having a lower precision (4.7 ppm) than the other algorithm products (2.4–2.5 ppm). When looking at the seasonal relative accuracy (SRA, variability of the bias in space and time), none of the algorithms have reached the demanding 〈 0.5 ppm threshold. For CH 4 , the precision for both SCIAMACHY products (50.2 ppb for IMAP and 76.4 ppb for WFMD) fail to meet the 〈 34 ppb threshold, but note that this work focusses on the period after the 2005 SCIAMACHY detector degradation. The GOSAT X CH 4 precision ranges between 18.1 and 14.0 ppb. Looking at the SRA, all GOSAT algorithm products reach the 〈 10 ppm threshold (values ranging between 5.4 and 6.2 ppb). For SCIAMACHY, IMAP and WFMD have a SRA of 17.2 ppb and 10.5 ppb respectively.

Description: Satellite observation of lowermost tropospheric ozone by multispectral synergism of IASI thermal infrared and GOME-2 ultraviolet measurements over Europe Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9675-9693, 2013 Author(s): J. Cuesta, M. Eremenko, X. Liu, G. Dufour, Z. Cai, M. Höpfner, T. von Clarmann, P. Sellitto, G. Foret, B. Gaubert, M. Beekmann, J. Orphal, K. Chance, R. Spurr, and J.-M. Flaud We present a new multispectral approach for observing lowermost tropospheric ozone from space by synergism of atmospheric radiances in the thermal infrared (TIR) observed by IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) and earth reflectances in the ultraviolet (UV) measured by GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2). Both instruments are onboard the series of MetOp satellites (in orbit since 2006 and expected until 2022) and their scanning capabilities offer global coverage every day, with a relatively fine ground pixel resolution (12 km-diameter pixels spaced by 25 km for IASI at nadir). Our technique uses altitude-dependent Tikhonov–Phillips-type constraints, which optimize sensitivity to lower tropospheric ozone. It integrates the VLIDORT (Vector Linearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer) and KOPRA (Karlsruhe Optimized and Precise Radiative transfer Algorithm) radiative transfer codes for simulating UV reflectance and TIR radiance, respectively. We have used our method to analyse real observations over Europe during an ozone pollution episode in the summer of 2009. The results show that the multispectral synergism of IASI (TIR) and GOME-2 (UV) enables the observation of the spatial distribution of ozone plumes in the lowermost troposphere (LMT, from the surface up to 3 km a.s.l., above sea level), in good agreement with the CHIMERE regional chemistry-transport model. In this case study, when high ozone concentrations extend vertically above 3 km a.s.l., they are similarly observed over land by both the multispectral and IASI retrievals. On the other hand, ozone plumes located below 3 km a.s.l. are only clearly depicted by the multispectral retrieval (both over land and over ocean). This is achieved by a clear enhancement of sensitivity to ozone in the lowest atmospheric layers. The multispectral sensitivity in the LMT peaks at 2 to 2.5 km a.s.l. over land, while sensitivity for IASI or GOME-2 only peaks at 3 to 4 km a.s.l. at lowest (above the LMT). The degrees of freedom for the multispectral retrieval increase by 0.1 (40% in relative terms) with respect to IASI only retrievals for the LMT. Validations with ozonesondes (over Europe during summer 2009) show that our synergetic approach for combining IASI (TIR) and GOME-2 (UV) measurements retrieves lowermost tropospheric ozone with a mean bias of 1% and a precision of 16%, when smoothing by the retrieval vertical sensitivity (1% mean bias and 21% precision for direct comparisons).

Description: Balloon-borne match measurements of mid-latitude cirrus clouds Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 25417-25479, 2013 Author(s): A. Cirisan, B. P. Luo, I. Engel, F. G. Wienhold, U. K. Krieger, U. Weers, G. Romanens, G. Levrat, P. Jeannet, D. Ruffieux, R. Philipona, B. Calpini, P. Spichtinger, and T. Peter Observations of persistent high supersaturations with respect to ice inside cirrus clouds are challenging our understanding of cloud microphysics and of climate feedback processes in the upper troposphere. Single measurements of a cloudy air mass provide only a snapshot from which the persistence of ice supersaturation cannot be judged. We introduce here the "cirrus match technique" to obtain information of the evolution of clouds and their saturation ratio. The aim of these coordinated balloon soundings is to analyze the same air mass twice. To this end the standard radiosonde equipment is complemented by a frost point hygrometer "SnowWhite" and a particle backscatter detector "COBALD" (Compact Optical Backscatter Aerosol Detector). Extensive trajectory calculations based on regional weather model COSMO forecasts are performed for flight planning and COSMO analyses are used as basis for comprehensive microphysical box modeling (with grid scale 2 km and 7 km, respectively). Here we present the results of matching a cirrus cloud to within 2–15 km, realized on 8 June 2010 over Payerne, Switzerland, and a location 120 km downstream close to Zurich. A thick cirrus was detected over both measurement sites. We show that in order to quantitatively reproduce the measured particle backscatter ratios, the small-scale temperature fluctuations not resolved by COSMO must be superimposed on the trajectories. The stochastic nature of the fluctuations is captured by ensemble calculations. Possibilities for further improvements in the agreement with the measured backscatter data are investigated by assuming a very slow mass accommodation of water on ice, the presence of heterogeneous ice nuclei, or a wide span of (spheroidal) particle shapes. However, the resulting improvements from microphysical refinements are moderate and comparable in magnitude with changes caused by assuming different regimes of temperature fluctuations for clear sky or cloudy sky conditions, highlighting the importance of a proper treatment of subscale fluctuations. The model yields good agreement with the measured backscatter over both sites and reproduces the measured saturation ratios with respect to ice over Payerne. Conversely, the 30% in-cloud supersaturation measured in a massive, 4-km thick cloud layer over Zurich cannot be reproduced, irrespective of the choice of meteorological or microphysical model parameters. The measured supersaturation can only be explained by either resorting to an unknown physical process, which prevents the ice particles from consuming the excess humidity, or – much more likely – by a measurement error, such as a contamination of the sensor housing of the SnowWhite hygrometer by a precipitation drop from a mixed phase cloud just below the cirrus layer or from some very slight rain in the boundary layer. This uncertainty calls for in-flight checks or calibrations of hygrometers under the extreme humidity conditions in the upper troposphere.

Description: Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3759-3778, 2013 Author(s): H. Qin, G. Cao, M. Kristensen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. O. Rasmussen, X. He, J. Liu, Y. Shu, and C. Zheng Groundwater overdraft has caused fast water level decline in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1980s. Although many hydrological models have been developed for the NCP in the past few decades, most of them deal only with the groundwater component or only at local scales. In the present study, a coupled surface water–groundwater model using the MIKE SHE code has been developed for the entire alluvial plain of the NCP. All the major processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle are considered in the integrated modeling approach. The most important parameters of the model are first identified by a sensitivity analysis process and then calibrated for the period 2000–2005. The calibrated model is validated for the period 2006–2008 against daily observations of groundwater heads. The simulation results compare well with the observations where acceptable values of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient ( R ) (0.36–0.97) are obtained. The simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is then compared with the remote sensing (RS)-based ET data to further validate the model simulation. The comparison result with a R 2 value of 0.93 between the monthly averaged values of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET) and RS AET for the entire NCP shows a good performance of the model. The water balance results indicate that more than 70% of water leaving the flow system is attributed to the ET component, of which about 0.25% is taken from the saturated zone (SZ); about 29% comes from pumping, including irrigation pumping and non-irrigation pumping (net pumping). Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results obtained from the integrated model. An effective approach to improve water use efficiency in the NCP is by reducing the actual ET, e.g. by introducing water-saving technologies and changes in cropping.

Description: An explicit study of aerosol mass conversion and its parameterization in warm rain formation of cumulus clouds Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 25481-25536, 2013 Author(s): J. Sun, J. Fen, and R. K. Ungar The life time of atmospheric aerosols is highly affected by in-cloud scavenging processes. Aerosol mass conversion from aerosols embedded in cloud droplets into aerosols embedded in raindrops is a pivotal pathway for wet removal of aerosols in clouds. The aerosol mass conversion rate in the bulk microphysics parameterizations is always assumed to be linearly related to the precipitation production rate, which includes the cloud water autoconversion rate and the cloud water accretion rate. The ratio of the aerosol mass concentration conversion rate to the cloud aerosol mass concentration has typically been considered to be the same as the ratio of the precipitation production rate to the cloud droplet mass concentration. However, the mass of an aerosol embedded in a cloud droplet is not linearly proportional to the mass of the cloud droplet. A simple linear relationship cannot be drawn between the precipitation production rate and the aerosol mass concentration conversion rate. In this paper, we studied the evolution of aerosol mass concentration conversion rates in a warm rain formation process with a 1.5-dimensional non-hydrostatic convective cloud and aerosol interaction model in the bin microphysics. We found that the ratio of the aerosol mass conversion rate to the cloud aerosol mass concentration can be statistically expressed by the ratio of the precipitation production rate to the cloud droplet mass concentration with an exponential function. We further gave some regression equations to determine aerosol conversions in the warm rain formation under different threshold radii of raindrops and different aerosol size distributions.

Description: Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3741-3758, 2013 Author(s): S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

Description: Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013 Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. Primulyana Indonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO 2 contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties. Existing SO 2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO 2 flux measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO 2 emission rates of 1.4 t d −1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than 22–32 t d −1 of SO 2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions.

Description: Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785 Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5157-5182, 2013 Author(s): P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the three months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely have analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yields circulation analogues in 2009/2010. Our analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the Laki eruption was responsible for the cold winter of 1783/1784, of the relatively short memory of the atmospheric circulation.

Description: Seasonal changes in glacial polynya activity inferred from Weddell Sea varves Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5123-5156, 2013 Author(s): D. Sprenk, M. E. Weber, G. Kuhn, V. Wennrich, T. Hartmann, and K. Seelos The Weddell Sea and the associated Filchner-Rønne Ice Shelf constitute key regions for global bottom-water production today. However, little is known about bottom-water production under different climate and ice-sheet conditions. Therefore, we studied core PS1795, which consists primarily of fine-grained siliciclastic varves that were deposited on contourite ridges in the southeastern Weddell Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We conducted high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis and grain-size measurements with the RADIUS tool (Seelos and Sirocko, 2005) using thin sections to characterize the two seasonal components of the varves at sub-mm resolution to distinguish the seasonal components of the varves. Bright layers contain coarser grains that can mainly be identified as quartz in the medium to coarse silt grain size. They also contain higher amounts of Si, Zr, Ca, and Sr, as well as more ice-rafted debris (IRD). Dark layers, on the other hand, contain finer particles such as mica and clay minerals from the chlorite and illite groups. In addition, chemical elements, Fe, Ti, Rb, and K are elevated as well. Based on these findings as well as on previous analyses on neighbouring cores, we propose a model of glacially enhanced thermohaline convection in front of a grounded ice sheet that is supported by seasonally variable coastal polynya activity. Accordingly, katabatic (i.e. offshore blowing) winds removed sea ice from the ice edge, leading to coastal polynya formation. We suggest that glacial processes were similar to today with stronger katabatic winds and enhanced coastal polynya activity during the winter season. If this is correct, silty layers are likely glacial winter deposits, when brine rejection was increased, leading to enhanced bottom water formation and increased sediment transport. Vice versa, finer-grained clayey layers were then deposited during summer, when coastal polynya activity was likely reduced.

Description: Investigating the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater and surface water interactions: a multi-technique approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3437-3453, 2013 Author(s): N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann The interaction between groundwater and surface water along the Tambo and Nicholson rivers, southeast Australia, was investigated using 222 Rn, Cl, differential flow gauging, head gradients, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature profiles. Head gradients, temperature profiles, Cl concentrations and 222 Rn activities all indicate higher groundwater fluxes to the Tambo River in areas of increased topographic variation where the potential to form large groundwater–surface water gradients is greater. Groundwater discharge to the Tambo River calculated by Cl mass balance was significantly lower (1.48 × 10 4 to 1.41 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) than discharge estimated by 222 Rn mass balance (5.35 × 10 5 to 9.56 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) and differential flow gauging (5.41 × 10 5 to 6.30 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) due to bank return waters. While groundwater sampling from the bank of the Tambo River was intended to account for changes in groundwater chemistry associated with bank infiltration, variations in bank infiltration between sample sites remain unaccounted for, limiting the use of Cl as an effective tracer. Groundwater discharge to both the Tambo and Nicholson rivers was the highest under high-flow conditions in the days to weeks following significant rainfall, indicating that the rivers are well connected to a groundwater system that is responsive to rainfall. Groundwater constituted the lowest proportion of river discharge during times of increased rainfall that followed dry periods, while groundwater constituted the highest proportion of river discharge under baseflow conditions (21.4% of the Tambo in April 2010 and 18.9% of the Nicholson in September 2010).

Description: Hydrological functions of sinkholes and characteristics of point recharge in groundwater basins Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 10, 11423-11449, 2013 Author(s): N. Somaratne, K. Smettem, J. Lawson, K. Nguyen, and J. Frizenschaf Karstic limestone aquifers are hydrologically and hydrochemically extremely heterogeneous and point source recharge via sinkholes and fissures is a common feature. We studied three groundwater systems in karstic settings dominated by point source recharge in order to assess the relative contributions to total recharge from point sources using chloride and δ 18 O relations. Preferential groundwater flows were observed through an inter-connected network of highly conductive zones with groundwater mixing along flow paths. Measurements of salinity and chloride indicated that fresh water pockets exist at point recharge locations. A measurable fresh water plume develops only when a large quantity of surface water enters the aquifer as a point recharge source. The difference in chloride concentrations in diffuse and point recharge zones decreases as aquifer saturated thickness increases and the plumes become diluted through mixing. The chloride concentration in point recharge fluxes crossing the watertable plane can remain at or near surface runoff chloride concentrations, rather than in equilibrium with groundwater chloride. In such circumstances the conventional chloride mass balance method that assumes equilibrium of recharge water chloride with groundwater requires modification to include both point and diffuse recharge mechanisms.

Description: Implementation and evaluation of prognostic representations of the optical diameter of snow in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4443-4500, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Carmagnola, S. Morin, M. Lafaysse, F. Domine, B. Lesaffre, Y. Lejeune, G. Picard, and L. Arnaud In the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus multi-layer snowpack model, the snow microstructure was up to now characterized by the grain size and by semi-empirical shape variables which cannot be measured easily in the field or linked to other relevant snow properties. In this work we introduce a new formulation of snow metamorphism directly based on equations describing the rate of change of the optical diameter ( d opt ). This variable is considered here to be equal to the equivalent sphere optical diameter, which is inversely proportional to the specific surface area (SSA). d opt thus represents quantitatively some of the geometric characteristics of a porous medium. Different prognostic rate equations of d opt , including a re-formulation of the original Crocus scheme and the parametrizations from Taillandier et al. (2007) and Flanner and Zender (2006), were evaluated by comparing their predictions to field measurements carried out at Summit Camp (Greenland) in May and June 2011 and at Col de Porte (French Alps) during the 2009/10 and 2011/12 winter seasons. We focused especially on results in terms of SSA. In addition, we tested the impact of the different formulations on the simulated density profile, the total snow height, the snow water equivalent (SWE) and the surface albedo. Results indicate that all formulations perform well, with median values of the RMSD between measured and simulated SSA lower than 10 m 2 kg −1 . Incorporating the optical diameter as a fully-fledged prognostic variable is an important step forward in the quantitative description of the snow microstructure within snowpack models, because it opens the way to data assimilation of various electromagnetic observations.

Description: Interviewing insights regarding the fatalities inflicted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2173-2187, 2013 Author(s): M. Ando, M. Ishida, Y. Hayashi, C. Mizuki, Y. Nishikawa, and Y. Tu One hundred fifty survivors of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Tohoku-oki earthquake) ( M w = 9.0) were interviewed to study the causes of deaths from the associated tsunami in coastal areas of Tohoku. The first official tsunami warning underestimated the height of the tsunami and 40% of the interviewees did not obtain this warning due to immediate blackouts and a lack of communication after the earthquake. Many chose to remain in dangerous locations based on the underestimated warning and their experiences with previous smaller tsunamis and/or due to misunderstanding the mitigating effects of nearby breakwaters in blocking incoming tsunamis. Some delayed their evacuation to perform family safety checks, and in many situations, the people affected misunderstood the risks involved in tsunamis. In this area, three large tsunamis have struck in the 115 yr preceding the 2011 tsunami. These tsunamis remained in the collective memory of communities, and numerous measures against future tsunami damage, such as breakwaters and tsunami evacuation drills, had been implemented. Despite these preparedness efforts, approximately 18 500 deaths and cases of missing persons occurred. The death rate with the age of 65 and above was particularly high, four times higher than that with other age groups. These interviews indicate that deaths resulted from a variety of reasons, but if residents had taken immediate action after the major ground motion stopped, most residents might have been saved. Education about the science behind earthquakes and tsunamis could help save more lives in the future.

Description: A neural network algorithm for cloud fraction estimation using NASA-Aura OMI VIS radiance measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 6, 2301-2309, 2013 Author(s): G. Saponaro, P. Kolmonen, J. Karhunen, J. Tamminen, and G. de Leeuw The discrimination of cloudy from cloud-free pixels is required in almost any estimate of a parameter retrieved from satellite data in the ultraviolet (UV), visible (VIS) or infrared (IR) parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. In this paper we report on the development of a neural network (NN) algorithm to estimate cloud fractions using radiances measured at the top of the atmosphere with the NASA-Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We present and discuss the results obtained from the application of two different types of neural networks, i.e., extreme learning machine (ELM) and back propagation (BP). The NNs were trained with an OMI data sets existing of six orbits, tested with three other orbits and validated with another two orbits. The results were evaluated by comparison with cloud fractions available from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) flying on Aqua in the same constellation as OMI, i.e., with minimal time difference between the OMI and MODIS observations. The results from the ELM and BP NNs are compared. They both deliver cloud fraction estimates in a fast and automated way, and they both performs generally well in the validation. However, over highly reflective surfaces, such as desert, or in the presence of dust layers in the atmosphere, the cloud fractions are not well predicted by the neural network. Over ocean the two NNs work equally well, but over land ELM performs better.

Description: Global and regional impacts of HONO on the chemical composition of clouds and aerosols Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 23599-23638, 2013 Author(s): Y. F. Elshorban, P. J. Crutzen, B. Steil, A. Pozzer, H. Tost, and J. Lelieveld Nitrous acid (HONO) photolysis can significantly increase HO x (OH+HO 2 ) radical formation, enhancing organic and inorganic oxidation products in polluted regions, especially during winter. It has been reported that chemistry-transport models underestimate sulphate concentrations, mostly during winter. Here we show that HONO can significantly enhance aerosol sulphate (S(VI)), mainly due to the increased formation of H 2 SO 4 . Even though in-cloud aqueous phase oxidation of dissolved SO 2 (S(IV)) is the main source of S(VI), it appears that HONO related enhancement of H 2 O 2 does not significantly affect sulphate because of the predominantly S(IV) limited conditions, except over eastern Asia. Nitrate is also increased via enhanced gaseous HNO 3 formation and N 2 O 5 hydrolysis on aerosol particles. Ammonium nitrate is enhanced in ammonia-rich regions but not under ammonia-limited conditions. Furthermore, particle number concentrations are also higher, accompanied by the transfer from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol modes. This implies a significant impact on the particle lifetime and cloud nucleating properties. The HONO induced enhancements of all species studied are relatively strong in winter though negligible in summer. Simulating realistic HONO levels is found to improve the model-measurement agreement of sulphate aerosols, most apparent over the US. Our results underscore the importance of HONO for the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and the central role of cloud chemical processing in aerosol formation.

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model using ensemble Kalman filter state updates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3455-3472, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we first compare two methods (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) and the Simultaneous parameter Optimization and Data Assimilation algorithm (SODA)) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated measurements. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil–bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. For these idealized circumstances, SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We then expand on the SODA result by performing yet another calibration, in which we investigate whether SODA's state updating patterns are still capable of providing insight into model structure deficiencies when there are fewer measurements, which are moreover subject to measurement noise. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Tethered balloon-borne aerosol measurements: seasonal and vertical variations of aerosol constituents over Syowa Station, Antarctica Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9119-9139, 2013 Author(s): K. Hara, K. Osada, and T. Yamanouchi Tethered balloon-borne aerosol measurements were conducted at Syowa Station, Antarctica, during the 46th Japanese Antarctic expedition (2005–2006). Direct aerosol sampling was operated from near the surface to the lower free troposphere (approximately 2500 m) using a balloon-borne aerosol impactor. Individual aerosol particles were analyzed using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer. Seasonal and vertical features of aerosol constituents and their mixing states were investigated. Results show that sulfate particles were predominant in the boundary layer and lower free troposphere in summer, whereas sea-salt particles were predominant during winter through spring. Minerals, MgSO 4 , and sulfate containing K were identified as minor aerosol constituents in both boundary layer and free troposphere over Syowa Station. Although sea-salt particles were predominant during winter through spring, the relative abundance of sulfate particles increased in the boundary layer when air masses fell from the free troposphere over the Antarctic coast and continent. Sea-salt particles were modified considerably through heterogeneous reactions with SO 4 2− CH 3 SO 3 − and their precursors during summer, and were modified slightly through heterogeneous reactions with NO 3 − and its precursors. During winter through spring, sea-salt modification was insignificant, particularly in the cases of high relative abundance of sea-salt particles and higher number concentrations. In August, NO 3 − and its precursors contributed greatly to sea-salt modification over Syowa Station. Because of the occurrence of sea-salt fractionation on sea ice, Mg-rich sea-salt particles were identified during the months of April through November. In contrast, Mg-free sea-salt particles and slightly Mg-rich sea-salt particles coexisted in the lower troposphere during summer. Thereby, Mg separation can proceed by sea-salt fractionation during summer in Antarctic regions.

Description: Regional inversion of CO 2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements: reliability of the uncertainty estimates Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9039-9056, 2013 Author(s): G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, F.-M. Bréon, N. Kadygrov, M. Alemanno, F. Apadula, S. Hammer, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, J. A. Morguí, J. Necki, S. Piacentino, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, R. L. Thompson, A. T. Vermeulen, C. Yver, and P. Ciais The Bayesian framework of CO 2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO 2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5° resolution are applied for the western European domain where ~ 50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002–2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO 2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38%. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO 2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than represented by the prior ecosystem model.

Description: Injection heights of springtime biomass burning plumes over the Peninsular Southeast Asia and their impacts on pollutant long-range transport Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 13, 23781-23816, 2013 Author(s): Y. Jian and T.-M. Fu We analyzed observations from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to determine the injection heights of biomass burning smoke plumes over the Peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA) in spring, with the goal of evaluating the impacts on pollutant long-range transport. We retrieved the heights of twenty-two thousand MISR smoke pixels from 607 smoke plumes over the PSEA during February to April of the years 2001–2010. Forty-five percent of the analyzed smoke pixels were above the local mean boundary layer (1 km) at MISR overpass time (10:30 a.m. local time). We used the GEOS-Chem model to simulate the transport of PSEA biomass burning pollutants in March 2001. We found that the direct injection of 40% of the PSEA biomass burning emissions had little impact on the long-range transport of CO to downwind regions, compared to a control simulation where all biomass burning emissions were released in the boundary layer. This was because CO at the surface over the PSEA was efficiently lifted into the free troposphere by deep convection associated with synoptic-scale weather systems. For pollutants with lifetimes shorter than the synoptic timescale, such as black carbon aerosol (BC), their long-range transport was much more sensitive to the initial plume injection height. The direct injection of NO x from PSEA biomass burning into the free troposphere drove increased formation and transport of PAN, which in turn led to significant increases of ozone over downwind southern China and northwestern Pacific. The Pacific subtropical high transported PSEA biomass burning pollutants to the marine boundary layer over the tropical northwestern Pacific. We compared our model results to aircraft measurements over the northwestern Pacific during the TRACE-P campaign (March 2001). The direct injection of 40% of the PSEA biomass burning pollutants in the free troposphere in the model led to a more pronounced BC peak at 3 km over the northwestern Pacific, which was in better agreement with the aircraft observations compared to the control simulation. Our analyses highlighted the point that the injection heights of smoke plumes pose large uncertainty to the interpretation of BC measurements downwind of biomass burning regions.

Description: Distribution and recent variations of supraglacial lakes on dendritic-type glaciers in the Khan Tengri-Tomur Mountains, Central Asia The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4545-4584, 2013 Author(s): Q. Liu, C. Mayer, and S. Liu Supraglacial lakes are widely distributed on glaciers in the Tomur-Khan Tengri Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. The existence and development of supraglacial lakes play an important role in the ice melting processes and also in the storage and release of glacial melt water. Here we mapped the supraglacial lakes of eight typical debris-covered dendritic-type glaciers around the Tomur-Khan Tengri peaks based on 9 Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in the summers of 1990 until 2011. With a lower area limit of 3600 m 2 for a conservative identification of glacial lakes, we mapped 775 supraglacial lakes and 38 marginal glacial lakes in total. Our results indicate that supraglacial lakes (area 〉 3600 m 2 ) in the study region never develop beyond an elevation of about 3850 m a.s.l., 800 m lower than the maximum upper boundary of debris cover (4650 m a.s.l.). The area-elevation distribution shows that lakes are predominantly occured close to the altitude of 3250 m a.s.l., where the clean ice simultaneously disappears. The majority of the supraglacial lakes are found on the Tomur Glacier and the South Inylchek Glacier, two strongly debris-covered dendritic-type glaciers in the region. As for the multi-year variation of lake area, the summer total and mean areas of supraglacial lakes show some variability from 1990 and 2005 but increased noticeably between 2005 and 2011. The mean area of the mapped lakes reached a maximum in 2010. We found that the area of supraglacial lakes is positively correlated to the total precipitation in summer (July to September) but negatively correlated to the mean spring air temperature (April to June). Pre-summer air temperature fluctuations likely have a stronger impact on the different evolution processes of glacial drainage, evolving from unconnected to connected systems, which may lead to the drainage of larger supraglacial lakes and results in shrinkage of the total and mean lake area during the summer.