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  • Cambridge University Press  (14,475)
  • Society of Economic Geologists (SEG)
  • Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
  • 1990-1994  (12,769)
  • 1950-1954  (1,904)
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  • 1
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 95-128, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: "Polarforschung" , peerRev
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  • 2
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 63(1), pp. 1-3, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 77-82, ISSN: 0032-2490
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 147-150, ISSN: 0032-2490
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 63(1), pp. 9-32, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 129-144, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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  • 7
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 91-94, ISSN: 0032-2490
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 145-146, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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  • 9
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 63(1), pp. 5-8, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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  • 10
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 63(1), pp. 57-62, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 63(1), pp. 33-56, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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    Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research
    In:  EPIC3Polarforschung, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research & German Society of Polar Research, 62(2/3), pp. 71-76, ISSN: 0032-2490
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
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  • 13
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 14
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-4 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 15
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 19-30 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Consider how your consumption would change if you were stranded on a deserted island. Isolation would eliminate all social influences on your consumption decisions, even for the same choice set. You might decide not to consume cosmetics, curtains, or neckties, and pay less attention to the style or color of your clothes, car, or furniture. These choices might not matter as much to you anymore, for you would not have to consider the reactions of other individuals to your consumption. Similarly, isolation would also eliminate social influences on your speech. Absent an audience, your choice of words would not be subject to the judgments of others.
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  • 16
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 1-17 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: This essay argues in favor of retaining the positive/normative distinction in economics, in spite of developments in methodology and epistemology that have cast doubt on the possibility of a “value-free” economics. The central claim is that it is worthwhile to distinguish between positive economic analysis and normative judgments, even if economics is viewed as being permeated with ethical values. This argument is presented without trying either to demonstrate that there is (or is not) a profound epistemological difference between science and ethics or to show that positive science can (or cannot) afford us access to objective reality.
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  • 17
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 59-72 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: The concept of fairness as mutual advantage has been developed in the tradition of social contract theory. In this framework society is seen as an enterprise that coordinates the activities of its members in order to advance their interests. All acceptable social rules are in the interest of each member of society. Rules are agreed unanimously – no rules can be enforced against the interest of someone. It is assumed that individuals are basically self-interested and rational. Radical libertarianism claims that individuals do not have to accept any a priori constraints on their behavior. “Libertarianism focuses on negative freedom” (Schokkaert, 1992, p. 89).
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  • 18
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 31-58 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Postmodernism is often characterized, among other things, as the belief in the unattainability of objective truth and as a rejection of teleological and reductionist, or essentialist, forms of thought. For instance, in his provocative book The Rhetoric of Economics (1985), Donald McCloskey sketches the implications for economic methodology of Richard Rorty's (1979) rejection of the modernist quest for Truth, as represented by various rationalist and empiricist epistemologies. McCloskey describes modernist methodology as displaying a desire to predict and control, a search for objective–;which often means measurable–;knowledge, and an attempt to develop a value-free inquiry, among other characteristics (McCloskey, 1985, pp. 7-8). This “methodological correctness,” McCloske suggests, is discredited by the postmodern dissatisfaction with traditional epistemology. Thus, in place of the modernist belief in a rule-guided path to truth, he advocates a “free market” approach to knowledge, in which participants in the variety of theoretical conversations agree to be earnest and listen politely to one another.
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  • 19
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 73-89 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: I carved a massive cake of beeswax into bits and rolled them in my hands until they softened ... Going forward I carried wax along the line, and laid it thick on their ears. They tied me up, then, plumb amidships, back to the mast, lashed to the mast, and took themselves again to rowing. Soon, as we came smartly within hailing distance, the two Sirens, noting our fast ship off their point, made ready, and they sang ... The lovely voices in ardor appealing over the water made me crave to listen, and I tried to say ‘Untie me!’ to the crew, jerking my brows; but they bent steady to the oars. (Homer, c. –900, pp. 227–28)
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  • 20
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 115-117 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 21
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 107-113 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 22
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 91-106 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: At lunch one day a colleague and I had a friendly argument over occupational licensing. I attacked it for being anticompetitive, arguing that licensing boards raise occupational incomes by restricting entry, advertising, and commercialization. My colleague, while acknowledging anticompetitive aspects, affirmed the need for licensing on the grounds of protecting the consumer from frauds and quacks. In many areas of infrequent and specialized dealing, consumers are not able, ex ante or even ex post, to evaluate competence. I countered by suggesting voluntary means by which reputational problems might be handled and by returning to the offensive. I said that in fact the impetus for licensing usually comes from the practitioners, not their customers, and that licensing boards seldom devote their time to ferreting out incompetence but rather simply to prosecuting unlicensed practitioners. I mentioned cross-sectional findings, such as those on state licensure, prices, and occupational incomes. Overall, I characterized the professional establishment as a group of dastardly operators, who set the standards, write the codes, and enforce behavior to enhance their own material wellbeing - in brief, as venal rent-seekers.
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  • 23
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 119-122 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 24
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 123-126 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 25
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 127-133 
    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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  • 26
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 133-138 
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  • 27
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 138-145 
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  • 28
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 145-148 
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  • 29
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 10 (1994), S. 149-150 
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  • 30
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 31
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 514-551 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is specified with equation system parameters, which directly reflect the possible cointegrating nature of the analyzed time series. By using a flat/diffuse prior, we show that the marginal posteriors of the parameters of interest (multipliers of the cointegrating vectors) may be nonintegrable and favor difference stationary models in an undesired way. To choose between stationary, cointegrated, and difference stationary models in a meaningful way, the Jeffreys prior principle is used. We investigate the sensitivity of the posterior results with respect to the construction of the Jeffreys prior. In this context, we also analyze the effect of fixed and stochastic initial values. The theoretical results are illustrated by using a VAR model for shortand long–term interest rates in the United States.
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  • 32
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 439-440 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 33
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-442 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 34
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-442 
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  • 35
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 450-450 
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  • 36
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 1-2 
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  • 37
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 53-69 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: By appropriately partitioning the joint hypothesis of weak exogeneity and the maintained overidentifying restrictions in the linear dynamic simultaneous equations model and showing that the component subhypotheses are separable, asymptotically optimal tests for the weak exogeneity hypothesis may be constructed using limited information statistics. A necessary and sufficient condition for the separability of parametric hypotheses of the mixed implicit function and constraint equation type is derived which generalizes conditions previously obtained in the literature. Consequently, limited and full information procedures for testing the weak exogeneity hypothesis are asymptotically equivalent. The impact of these results for testing strong exogeneity in the linear dynamic simultaneous equations model is also explored.
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  • 38
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 116-129 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: When values of regressors are symmetrically disposed, many M-estimators in a wide class of models have a reflection property, namely, that as the signs of the coefficients on regressors are reversed, their estimators' sampling distribution is reflected about the origin. When the coefficients are zero, sign reversal can have no effect. So in this case, the sampling distribution of regression coefficient estimators is symmetric about zero, the estimators are median unbiased and, when moments exist, the estimators are exactly uncorrelated with estimators of other parameters. The result is unusual in that it does not require response variates to have symmetric conditional distributions. It demonstrates the potential importance of covariate design in determining the distributions of estimators, and it is useful in designing and interpreting Monte Carlo experiments. The result is illustrated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which maximum likelihood and symmetrically censored least-squares estimators are calculated for small samples from a censored normal linear regression, Tobit, model.
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  • 39
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 774-808 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The Kalman filter is used to derive updating equations for the Bayesian data density in discrete time linear regression models with stochastic regressors. The implied “Bayes model” has time varying parameters and conditionally heterogeneous error variances. A σ-finite Bayes model measure is given and used to produce a new-model-selection criterion (PIC) and objective posterior odds tests for sharp null hypotheses like the presence of a unit root. This extends earlier work by Phillips and Ploberger [18]. Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models are considered, and a general test of trend-stationarity versus difference stationarity is developed in ARMA models that allow for automatic order selection of the stochastic regressors and the degree of the deterministic trend. The tests are completely consistent in that both type I and type II errors tend to zero as the sample size tends to infinity. Simulation results and an empirical application are reported. The simulations show that the PIC works very well and is generally superior to the Schwarz BIC criterion, even in stationary systems. Empirical application of our methods to the Nelson-Plosser [11] series show that three series (unemployment, industrial production, and the money stock) are level- or trend-stationary. The other eleven series are found to be stochastically nonstationary.
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  • 40
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    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 1-1 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 41
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 443-448 
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  • 42
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 29-52 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper investigates the sampling behavior of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the Gaussian GARCH(1,1) model. The rescaled variable (the ratio of the disturbance to the conditional standard deviation) is not required to be Gaussian nor independent over time, in contrast to the current literature. The GARCH process may be integrated (α + β = 1), or even mildly explosive (α + β 〉 1). A bounded conditional fourth moment of the rescaled variable is sufficient for the results. Consistent estimation and asymptotic normality are demonstrated, as well as consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix.
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  • 43
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 91-115 
    ISSN: 0266-4666
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper proposes a residual-based test of the null of cointegration using a structural single equation model. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the test statistic for cointegration can be made free of nuisance parameters when the cointegrating relation is efficiently estimated. The limiting distributions are given in terms of a mixture of a Brownian bridge and vector Brownian motion. It is also shown that this test is consistent. Critical values are given for standard, demeaned, and detrended cases. Combining results from our test for cointegration with results from the Phillips-Ouliaris test for no cointegration, we find that there is evidence of cointegration between real consumption and real disposable income over the postwar period.
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  • 44
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 130-139 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In this paper, we derive an instrumental variables estimator for the generalized Hausman and Taylor [4] model with a two-way error component. We also extend the work of Breusch, Mizon, and Schmidt [2] to this model and derive two additional instrumental variables estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator is demonstrated, allowing both the number of time periods as well as the number of individuals to increase, their ratio bounded. Consistent estimates of the variance components are discussed.
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  • 45
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 221-222 
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    Topics: Economics
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  • 46
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    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 0026-749X
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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  • 47
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-11 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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  • 48
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 833-874 
    ISSN: 0026-749X
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The vital importance of the Indian Army as the guardian of the imperial order in India was never more evident than during the interwar years. The period from 1919 to the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939 was a testing time for the Raj; state authority was being challenged by a mounting nationalist movement, and public order was frequently disrupted by civil disobedience campaigns, as well as recurrent outbreaks of communal violence. In maintaining public order the colonial state had always been prepared to rely on that ultimate guarantee of its authority and power–the Indian Army. However, in frequent discussions of the deployment of the military in 'aid of civil power', the continued loyalty of the bulk of the army the Indian soldiers and officers, was never questioned, and seemed to be taken for granted.2 Yet, both the Government of India and the to be taken for granted.2 Yet, both the Government of India and the Army Headquarters were well awar that the 'loyalty' of the Army could never be guaranteed, and that it was conditional upon a stable and pacified recruiting base; if that base were to be 'subverted', then the Indian Army, or portions of it, would not only cease to be of use as an instrument of state power, but could ultimately pose a threat to the Raj itself
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-11 
    ISSN: 0026-749X
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 475-502 
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    Notes: In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Sino-Soviet conflict intensified and at the same time the Sino-American rapprochement was well under way. When the Americans began to search for an answer to the question of ‘Why Vietnam’, some US foreign relation documents in the later 1940s were released, which indicated that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had made certain friendly overtures toward the United States. Since then, it has become a widely-accepted interpretation among scholars that Washington ‘lost a chance’ to win over the CCP from Moscow in the late 1940s. The fundamental premise of this interpretation is that the CCP earnestly bid for American friendship and support as a counterweight to pressure from the Soviet Union. It is argued that the CCP sincerely sought the US recognition right up to the middle of and that it was only after their bids for American support were rejected by Washington that the Communists had to choose the ‘lean-to-one-side’ policy. In short, Washington's shortsighted policy in 1949 ‘forced Beijing into Moscow's embrace’, and therefore set in motion a train of disastrous events: the Korean War and the Vietnam War. A promising postwar Asian balance in favour of the US was ruined.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 615-647 
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    Notes: A puzzling feature of interwar Anglo-Indian economic relations is the contrast between Whitehall's relatively hands-off attitude to Indian tariff policies, and its insistent hands-on approach to monetary policy issues in the colony. Both sets of issues were, at various times, equally contentious. But while Britain's strategic objectives in India paved the way for the Fiscal Autonomy Convention, the road towards a similar monetary ‘convention’ was never taken. Rather, thanks to Britain's external financial problems, the interwar decades saw initially a tightening, and later a refinement, of London's control over Indian monetary policies. This paper hopes to set out the processes at work more clearly than has been attempted before, and to account for them. The interpretation offered here is consistent with the ‘gentlemanly capitalism’ explanation of British imperialism during the interwar years, and of the postwar de-colonization process.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 673-737 
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    Notes: Some write because they travel, and some travel because they write. A large number of progessional writers, not just travel-writers, have derived inspiration from travel: equally, a large number of travellers, who are not professional writers, have nevertheless often felt compelled to encapsulate their experience in literary form. It is the aim of this paper to survey such British travel literature relating to Southeast Asia during the period of massive transformation dating approximately from the ‘20S to the ’ 50S of this century. It is not intended to be comprehensive, but representative of the major landmarks of that literature along with some lesser-known works of particular interest.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 875-889 
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    Notes: Most studies have concentrated on the Muslim League's political activities and objectives. It is generally believed that it lacked a distinctive economic programme and unequivocally favoured private enterprise. The radical economic ideas produced by its Punjab and Bengal branches are attributed to a handful of activists who received short shrift from the High Command. The League's stance is thus contrasted with the Congress which addressed economic issues from a largely Socialist perpective.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 533-556 
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    Notes: Writing to John Morley, the Secretary of State for India, a few days after the first terrorist bomb was thrown by a Bengali, the Viceroy Lord Minto declared that the conspirators aimed ‘at the furtherance of murderous methods hitherto unknown in India which have been imported from the West, and which the imitative Bengali has childishly accepted’.This notion later was taken up and developed by Times correspondent Valentine Chirol, who wrote that Bengalis had ‘of all Indians been the most slavish imitators of the West, as represented, at any rate, by the Irish Fenian and the Russian anarchist’. Chirol went on to say that ‘European works on various periods of revolutionary history figure almost invariably amongst seizures of a far more compromising character whenever the Indian police raids some centre of Nationalist activity.’ This indicated that Bengali revolutionary terrorism was simply a takeoff on the European variety. The only indigenous element in it was the dangerous infusion of Hindu religious fanaticism.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 216-217 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 589-614 
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    Notes: Few books are exemplars of real hard work sustained over a lengthy period of time as is John Smith's The Epic of Pabuji(1991). Starting his investigation of the scroll of cloth painting in 1973, a huge structure measuring fifteen feet by four, locally termed par, before which this epic is sung by a special caste of people, lower in hierarchy, called Naik Bhopa, Smith in a span of eighteen years has accomplished a work of lasting stay in the ethnographic tradition of south Asia as well as the discipline of folklore in general. Before this book was published, he had also contributed some important papers (in 1986 and 1989) on Pabu-ji. As far as I know, it is rare that Sanskritists, which Smith is at Cambridge, pay attention to ‘popular (or “non-Sanskritic”) traditions’ of people, and if at all they do, introducing the anthropological method of fieldwork in their study, their works are still laden with Indological references and scholarship where the actual voice of people is lost in oblivion or relegated to the back seat. But it does not happen with Smith; he is not only committed to listening to people's voice in its own right and place, but also provides a fair, up to date, and scholarly account of Pabu-ji's story and its role and niche in the local culture of Rajasthan. Therefore, his work is also of considerable interest to anthropologists, especially those working on the sociology of cult, popular religion, and non- literate traditions and their meanings.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 439-447 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 461-482 
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    Notes: Various approaches to the development of a noninformative prior for the AR(1) model are considered and compared. Particular attention is given to the reference prior approach, which seems to work well for the stationary case but encounters difficulties in the explosive case. A symmetrized (proper) version of the stationary reference prior is ultimately recommended for the problem. Bayesian testing of the unit root, stationary, and explosive hypotheses is considered also. Bounds on the Bayes factors are developed and shown to yield answers that appear to conflict with classical tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 579-595 
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    Notes: Two issues have come up in the specification of a prior in the Bayesian analysis of time series with possible unit roots. The first issue deals with the singularity that is due to the local identification problem of the unconditional mean of an AR(1) process in the limit of a random walk. This singularity problem is related to the difference between a structural parameterization and the linear reduced form in a standard regression model with fixed regressors. The second is related to the time series nature of the regressor in an AR(1) model. In this paper we will concentrate on the parameterization issue. First, it is shown that the posterior of the autoregressive parameter can be very sensitive to the degree of prior dependence between the unconditional mean and the autocorrelation parameter. Second, the time series nature of the problem suggests a particular form of this dependence.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 483-513 
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    Notes: A model is suggested to forecast economic time series. This model incorporates some innovative ideas of Harrison and Stevens [20] for building into the forecasting process important external shocks to the systems. Thus the occurrence of possibly significant real-world events may cause a fundamental change in the time series in question. The Jeffreys-Savage (JS) Bayesian theory of hypothesis testing is used to test the hypothesis that a particular event has been such as to free the series from its immediate past behavior. When the event frees the series in this way, then we model the sequence of observations following such an event (until the next such event) as an exchangeable sequence. In the simplest case of 0–1 valued data, such as in recording the ups and downs of the value of a particular commodity or stock, our alternative hypothesis is a Pólya process, and the null hypothesis is a simple random walk (unit roots model) with p = .50. Any exchangeable sequence is strictly stationary, and the observations in the Polya process are positively correlated, which can give rise to “explosive” behavior of the series at isolated time points. We then use the JS theory to predict future observations by taking a weighted average of the optimal predictions for each model, with weights given by the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses. Results of simulation studies are presented which compare the predictive performance of the fully Bayesian method based upon the JS theory with those based upon the “p-value” or pre-test method. The de Finetti method for scoring predictions is used to assess their empirical performance. A theoretical methodology, which extends the “evaluation game” of Hill [28,37], is developed for comparing predictors.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 917-936 
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    Notes: This paper considers the unit root tests in models with structural change. Particular attention is given to their dependency on the limiting ratios of the subsample sizes between breaks. The dependency is analyzed in detail, and the invariant testing procedure based on a transformed model is developed. The required transformation is essentially identical to the generalized least-squares correction for heteroskedasticity. The limiting distributions of the new tests do not depend on the relative sizes of the subsamples and are shown to be simple mixtures of the limiting distributions of the corresponding tests from the independent unit root models without structural change.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 968-969 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 969-969 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 971-976 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 286-315 
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    Notes: This paper proposes a new approach to modeling heteroskedastidty which enables the modeler to utilize information conveyed by data plots in making informed decisions on the form and structure of heteroskedasticity. It extends the well-known normal/linear/homoskedastic models to a family of non-normal/linear/heteroskedastic models. The non-normality is kept within the bounds of the elliptically symmetric family of multivariate distributions (and in particular the Student's t distribution) that lead to several forms of heteroskedasticity, including quadratic and exponential functions of the conditioning variables. The choice of the latter family is motivated by the fact that it enables us to model some of the main sources of heteroskedasticity: “thicktails,” individual heterogeneity, and nonlinear dependence. A common feature of the proposed class of regression models is that the weak exogeneity assumption is inappropriate. The estimation of these models, without the weak exogeneity assumption, is discussed, and the results are illustrated by using cross-section data on charitable contributions.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 316-356 
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    Notes: Let F denote a distribution function defined on the probability space (Ω,[...],P), which is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure in Rd with probability density function f. Let f0(·,β) be a parametric density function that depends on an unknown p × 1 vector β. In this paper, we consider tests of the goodness-of-fit of f0(·,β) for f(·) for some β based on (i) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the quasimaximum likelihood estimate of f0(·,β) denoted by In and (ii) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the corresponding kernel smoothed estimate of f0(·, β) denoted by Jn. It is shown in this paper that the amount of smoothing applied to the data in constructing the kernel estimate of f(·) determines the form of the test statistic based on In. For each test developed, we also examine its asymptotic properties including consistency and the local power property. In particular, we show that tests developed in this paper, except the first one, are more powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of local alternatives introduced in Rosenblatt [12], although they are less powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of Pitman alternatives. A small simulation study is carried out to examine the finite sample performance of one of these tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 409-418 
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    Notes: In this comment on Gurmu and Trivedi's “Variable Augmentation Specification Tests in the Linear Exponential Family,” I show how their generalized linear model (GLM) approach relates to other work in econometrics on specification testing in the linear exponential family. In addition to shedding light on the relationship between the statistics and econometrics literatures on testing in quasi-likelihood frameworks, this comparison reveals some important limitations of GLM as a general framework for devising specification tests.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 439-439 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 609-632 
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    Notes: This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but nonconjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is introduced, indexed by a single parameter that can be readily elicited. The main technical contribution is the construction of posterior moments, densities, and odd ratios by using a six-step Gibbs sampler. Mappings from the index parameter of the family of prior distribution to posterior moments, densities, and odds ratios are developed for several of the Nelson–Plosser time series. These mappings show that the posterior distribution is not even approximately Gaussian, and they indicate the sensitivity of the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity to the choice of the prior distribution.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 672-700 
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    Notes: The distribution of statistics testing restrictions on the coefficients in time series regressions can depend on the order of integration of the regressors. In practice, the order of integration is rarely known. We examine two conventional approaches to this problem — simply to ignore unit root problems or to use unit root pretests to determine the critical values for second-stage inference—and show that both exhibit substantial size distortions in empirically plausible situations. We then propose an alternative approach in which the second-stage critical values depend continuously on a first-stage statistic that is informative about the order of integration of the regressor. This procedure has the correct size asymptotically and good local asymptotic power.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 720-746 
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    Notes: This paper proposes residual-based tests for the null of level- and trend-stationarity, which are analogs of the LM test for an MA unit root. Asymptotic distributions of the tests are nonstandard, but they are expressed in a unified manner by expressing stochastic integrals. In addition, the tests are shown to be consistent. By expressing the distributions expressed as a function of a chi-square variable with one degree of freedom, the exact limiting probability density and cumulative distribution functions are obtained, and the exact limiting cumulative distribution functions are tabulated. Finite sample performance of the proposed tests is studied by simulation. The tests display stable size when the lag truncation number for the long-run variance estimation is chosen appropriately. But the power of the tests is generally not high at selected sample sizes. The test for the null of trend-stationarity is applied to the U.S. macroeconomic time series along with the Phillips-Perron Z(⋯) test. For some monthly and annual series, the two tests provide consistent inferential results. But for most series, the two contradictory nulls of trend-stationarity and a unit root cannot be rejected at the conventional significance levels.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 372-395 
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    Notes: We prove [...]-consistency and asymptotic normality of a generalized semiparametric regression estimator that includes as special cases Ichimura's semiparametric least-squares estimator for single index models, and the estimator of Klein and Spady for the binary choice regression model. Two function expansions reveal a type of U-process structure in the criterion function; then new U-process maximal inequalities are applied to establish the requisite stochastic equicontinuity condition. This method of proof avoids much of the technical detail required by more traditional methods of analysis. The general framework suggests other [...]-consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 435-438 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 440-440 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 442-443 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 223-224 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 224-225 
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 172-197 
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    Notes: This paper explores the robustness of minimum distance (GMM) estimators focusing particularly on the effect of intermediate covariance matrix estimation on final estimator performance. Asymptotic expansions to order Op(n−3/2) are employed to construct O(n−2) expansions for the variance of estimators constructed from preliminary least-squares and general M-estimators. In the former case, there is a rather curious robustifying effect due to estimation of the Eicker-White covariance matrix for error distributions with sufficiently large kurtosis.
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    Econometric theory 10 (1994), S. 441-442 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-2 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 1-49 
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    Notes: Sabah (previously known as British North Borneo) occupies the whole of the northern portion of the island of Borneo, covering an area of 76, 115 square kilometres. Its immediate neighbours are Brunei, Sarawak and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo). From 1882 to 1942, Sabah was administered by the British North Borneo (Chartered) Company. The territory possessed three main attractions: its timber, its reputed minerals and its land. Timber has now grown to be amajor export commodity, second only to petroleum. With the exception of deposits of coal and some gold, economic resources of other sought-after minerals were not proven during the period. The land proved to be the most valuable asset. Many crops were experimented with: tobacco, sugar cane, coffee, coconuts and rubber and they laid the basis for the economic development of the territory. The expansion of these crops was largely assisted by the introduction of a modern transport system which supplemented the original means of communication, the rivers. The railway in particular provided the impetus for the rubber boom on the west coast. In turn, this resulted in the emergence of an export-oriented economy, specializing in rubber, timber, copra and tobacco. From 1942, Sabah was occupied by the Japanese until its liberation in 1945. After a brief period under military administration, it became a British Colony in 1946. Under colonial rule from 1946 to 1963 the previous pattern of economic exploitation continued.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 225-250 
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    Notes: One of the most innovative aspects of forest policy in colonial Burma was the employment of shifting cultivators in order to create teak plantations. As developed in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, this system of plantation forestry represented an far-sighted attempt to establish teak production on a long-term basis. Indeed, its adaptation of what many colonial officials viewed as a destructive and primitive form of agriculture to more ‘useful’ end, guaranteed its popularity in a broader imperial context. Even today, the use of shifting cultivators for commercial tree planting remains an acknowledged agroforestry technique, and is promoted as a cure for various social and ecological problems.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 317-337 
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    Notes: Attempts to examine Hong Kong as an issue in British postwar colonial policy often emphasize the unique nature of the colony, and therefore a special case in British decolonization. Hong Kong has been regarded as an unconventional colonial entity, an anachronism in the modern world. But others argue that the word colony is not an appropriate term to describe it, except in the most severely technical legal sense, because of its spectacular industrial and economic development since the end of the Second World War. Nonetheless, Hong Kong has existed as a British crown colony since 1842, and its colonial political structures have remained more or less the same until the early 1980s. Hong Kong's special relations with China is an important factor making it an oddity in post-war British decolonization. Instead of becoming independent like most other British colonialterritories, Hong Kong's political future is linked to China. This situation of ‘decolonization without independence’ has been an important theme of academic analysis on the colony's political development.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 431-438 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 77-98 
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    Notes: Comparatively little of a scholarly nature has been written about Indonesian trade unions, particularly on the two decades from 1945 to 1965 when, like the political parties to which so many of them were affiliated, the unions had their heyday. This paper focuses on the development of trade unions in one specific industry: refined sugar production. The period to be examined—1945 to 1949—runs from the proclamation of Indonesian independence by Sukarno and Hatta, through the revolution fought against the returning Dutch, to December 1949 when the Netherlands finally acknowledged Indonesian independence. It was during this period that the major post-war sugar industry unions were established. The circumstances surrounding the establishment of these unions will be examined, along with their leaders and members, ideological leanings and political and industrial objectives.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 129-164 
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    Notes: Although it would now seem established beyond question that agriculture in most parts of India had been exposed to commercial influences from medieval times, there can be little doubt that a variety of developments from the second half of the nineteenth century greatly strengthened those influences. Railways and road transport made possible a huge expansion in cash cropping, for national and international markets, and production regimes across the subcontinent were placed in a new context of opportunity—and of pressure. While so much would scarcely be disputed among historians, what has become—and remained—more controversial, however, is an understanding of the implications of this extended commercial logic for agrarian economy and society. Since colonial times, opinions would seem to have been divided between ‘optimists’, for whom commercialization marked progress and a growing prosperity for all; ‘pessimists’, for whom it marked regress into deepening class stratification and mass pauperization; and ‘sceptics’ who held that it made very little difference and that its impact was largely absorbed by preexisting structures of wealth accumulation and power on the land.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 223-224 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 739-791 
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    Notes: The role of legal tradition in the reformist rhetoric of Benthamite Utilitarianism presents us with a contradiction. On the one hand, there is the common observation that Utilitarian jurisprudence was necessarily ahistorical and rejected the past as a source of concepts for reworking the criminal justice system existing in Britain during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. For philosophic reformers such as Bentham, contemporary British criminal justice was to be replaced by a scientific jurisprudence, abstract, universal, and secular in outlook, and antipathetic to the more conservative insistence that the foundations of the penal law continue to be tradition-based. ‘If society was to see any improvement, its law must be reformed; if its law was to be reformed it must be burned to the ground and rebuilt according to a new and rational pattern.’ On the other hand, we find that the very same Utilitarian thinkers, in works describing the state of the law in British India, were concerned with local rather than universal conceptions of criminality. In his 1782 Essay on the Influence of Time and Place in Matters of Legislation, Bentham, for instance, urged the philosophic reformer to temper change in India by fitting Utilitarian judgments about the law to the frames of local society.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 891-893 
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 449-474 
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    Notes: According to the view current among most Japanese today, the samurai lost their last hope of surviving as a distinct social or political group when Saigō Takamori died in the autumn of 1877. In fact, the fate of the samurai class had been sealed as early as 1866, when Satsuma and Chōshū joined forces to destroy the only institutional order in which the samurai had any functional meaning. Their disappearance from the Japanese stage was brought about by forces that Saigō helped to set in motion, but over which neither he nor any other individual could possibly have exerted much control. In the end he had no significant effect on the fate of the samurai.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 557-588 
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    Notes: In the West it is commonplace to regard sport as either an extracurricular form of leisure, or else as a business enterprise. Games and contests of all kinds are a form of distraction; and for some a very lucrative form at that (Smith 1978). Almost by definition sports direct our attention away from ‘real life’ to some form of fantasy world where there is high drama but little by way of the material or ideological substance of productive, pragmatic and ‘rational’ labor (cf. Rojek 1985; Simon 1985). Hand in hand with such a notion of marginal utility goes a folk attitude that sport is meaningless by virtue of its being purely and simply fun, as though pleasure and purpose are somehow antithetical.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 649-671 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper is an attempt to understand one case of ‘ethnic’ conflict in India—Assam. By looking closely at this one case I hope we will understand better the phenomenon of India's persistent dilemma of micro-nationalist politics that from time to time seems to be fundamentally at odds with India's macro-nationalist project. To be sure, despite the seriousness of some of these conflicts—say Punjab and Kashmir at present, or Assam until recently—the incidence of micro-nationalist dissent should be kept in perspective. The Indian state can claim quite a bit of success in its project of ‘nation building’-it has been able to incorporate micro-nationalist dissent of a number of peoples by using persuasive and coercive means at its disposal. Moreover, cven conflicts that appear stubborn at one time turn out to be surprisingly amenable to negotiated settlement. Irrespective of the Indian state's ability to manage micro-nationalist dissent, the assumption that nationalisms have a telos that inevitably leads to a demand for separation relies on a rather sloppy and lazy naturalist theory of the nature and origins of nations and nation states. What the Indian experience forces us to confront is the fate of nationalism and the nation state as they spread worldwide as a modal form. In the Indian subcontinent these new forms that privilege 'formal boundedness over substantive interelationships," come face to face with a civilisation that represents a particularly complex way of ordering diversity.2 In a subcontinent where the historical legacy of state formation is marked by an intermittent tension between the imperial state and regional kingdoms, nationalisms and the nation state may have proved to be rather unfortunate modern transplants.3
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 279-315 
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    Notes: The Philippines in the immediate post-war years may be described as a nation in search of an identity. This preoccupation with what one journalist has dubbed ‘the question of identity’ spurred a sudden interest in the research and discussion of things Filipino: Filipino dance, theater, literature, language, music, art and cultural traditions. After four hundred and fifty years of colonial rule the Filipino intelligentsia began to wonder if indeed the western legacy of colonial rule was the annihilation of the very essence of Filipino culture. Under the aegis of American rule Filipinos were adamant about proving to their colonizers that they had been good pupils in western democratic ideals and were fit to govern themselves. From the 1920s to the early 1940s, the Filipino had become a sajonista (pro-American). The Japanese colonizers who replaced the Americans in the second world war were appalled not only at the pro-Americanism of the Filipino but at the magnitude of American influence absorbed by Filipino culture. In fact it was the Japanese who promoted the use of Tagalog and the ‘revival’ and appreciation of Filipino cultural traditions as part of the policy of ‘Asia for the Asians’. Once independence was achieved at last in 1946, the focus shifted. The nagging question was no longer ‘Are we western enough to govern ourselves?’ but its opposite—‘Have we become too westernized to the point of losing ourselves?’.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 381-408 
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    Notes: The literature on the new international division of labour (NIDL) highlights the rapid growth of the electronics industry in East and Southeast Asia. By contrast, the Indian electronics industry has received less attention because of its traditional emphasis upon import substitution and relatively weak articulation with the prevailing global division of labour. Moreover, the application of the microchip technology in India is still in its early stages, though government interest and support for it suggest a promising future. Nevertheless, in computer software India is emerging as a competitive location for software development and exports.
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 51-76 
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    Topics: Ethnic Sciences , History , Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The issue of who constituted the workforce employed in the Java sugar industry during the late colonial era remains a controversial one. Almost thirty years ago one leading Indonesian scholar made the eminently plausible suggestion that ‘on the whole, those who sought work in the sugar industry... were those who had no land. They were for the greater part recruited from the landless... who were eager to sell their labour to anyone prepared to pay wages’ [Selosoemardjan 1962: 271]. Since that time, however, the waters of debate have become a great deal murkier. In particular, the legend that the industry's workers remained ‘peasants’ is one which dies hard [e.g. Knight 1989]. Indeed, if there can be said to be a single image illustrative of the prevailing orthodoxy concerning the relations between labour and capital in late colonial Java, it is that of the peasant-worker who ‘persisted as a community-oriented household farmer at the same time that he became an industrial wage labourer’ and who ‘had one foot in the rice terrace and the other in the [sugar] mill’ [Geertz 1963: 89]
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    Modern Asian studies 28 (1994), S. 215-216 
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