ALBERT

Description: Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Description: We determined the infrared optical constants of nitric acid trihydrate, nitric acid dihydrate, nitric acid monohydrate, and solid amorphous nitric acid solutions which crystallize to form these hydrates. We have also found the infrared optical constants of H2O ice. We measured the transmission of infrared light throught thin films of varying thickness over the frequency range from about 7000 to 500/cm at temperatures below 200 K. We developed a theory for the transmission of light through a substrate that has thin films on both sides. We used an iterative Kramers-Kronig technique to determine the optical constants which gave the best match between measured transmission spectra and those calculated for a variety of films of different thickness. These optical constants should be useful for calculations of the infrared spectrum of polar stratospheric clouds.

Description: Meteorological conditions, extremely conducive to fire development and spread in the spring of 1987, resulted in forest fires burning over extremely large areas in the boreal forest zone in northeastern China and the southeastern region of Siberia. The great China fire, one of the largest and most destructive forest fires in recent history, occurred during this period in the Heilongjiang Province of China. Satellite imagery is used to examine the development and areal distribution of 1987 forest fires in this region. Overall trace gas emissions to the atmosphere from these fires are determined using a satellite-derived estimate of area burned in combination with fuel consumption figures and carbon emission ratios for boreal forest fires.

Description: In November to December 1991, a substantial number of remote sensors and in situ instruments were operated together in Coffeyville, Kansas, during the climate experiment First ISCCP Regional Experiment Phase 2 (FIRE 2). Includede in the suite of instruments were (1) the NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL) three-channel microwave radiometer, (2) the NASA GSFC Raman lidar, (3) ETL radio acoustic sounding system (RASS), and (4) frequent, research-quality radiosondes. The Raman lidar operated only at night and the focus of this portion of the experiment concentrated on clear conditions. The lidar data, together with frequent radiosondes and measurements of temperature profiles (every 15 min) by RASS allowed profiles of temperature and absolute humidity to be estimated every minute. We compared 20 min measurements of brightness temperature (T(sub b) with calculations of T(sub b) that were based on the Liebe and Layton (1987) and Liebe et al. (1993) microwave propagation models, as well as the Waters (1976) model. The comparisons showed the best agreement at 20.6 GHz with the Waters model, with the Liebe et al. (1993) model being best at 31.65 GHz. The results at 90 GHz gave about equal success with the Liebe and Layton (1987) and Liebe et al. (1993) models. Comparisons of precipitable water vapor derived independently from the two instruments also showed excellent agreement, even for averages as short as 2 min. The rms difference between Raman and radiometric determinations of precipitable water vapor was 0.03 cm which is roughly 2%. The experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of simultaneous operation of radiometers and Raman lidars for fundamental physical studies of water vapor.

Description: This paper describes the validation of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology project (ISCCP)cloud detections by verifying the accuracy of the infrared clear-sky radiances. Comparison of retrieved surface temperatures to other measurements shows that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 2 K for sea surface (monthly means at 280-km scales) and that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 4 K for land surfaces (3 hourly at 280-km scales). Bias errors over a few persistently cloudy locations are sometimes -(2-4) K and over winter sea ice may be about +2 K. Surface reflectances are confirmed to be within 3% of other measurements and models for ocean, except for sun glint geometries, and to be within 3%-5% for land surfaces. Sufficiently accurate validation data are not avilable for visible reflectances of sea ice and snow-covered land, but some tests of specific cases suggest that errors are approximately 10%. These errors in clear-sky radiances suggest uncertainties in the ISCCP cloud detections of about 10% with a small (3%-6%) negative bias over land. Some specific regions exhibit both larger rms uncertainties and somewhat larger biases in cloud amount approaching 10%. ISCCP cloud detections are more in error over the polar regions than anywhere else. Based on comparisons with an anlysis of radiances measured at other wavelengths, the ISCCP analysis appears to miss 15%-25% of the clouds in summer but only 5%-10% of the winter clouds.

Description: Water vapor concentrations obtained by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) and collocated temperatures provided by the National Meteorological Center (NMC) from 1986 to 1990 are used to deduce seasonally and zonally averaged acidity, density, and refractive index of stratospheric aerosols. It is found that the weight percentage of sulfuric acid in the aerosols increases from about 60 just above the tropopause to about 86 at 35 km. The density increases from about 1.55 to 1.85 g/cu cm between the same altitude limits. Some seasonal variations of composition and density are evident at high latitudes. The refractive indices at 1.02, 0.694, and 0.532 micrometers increase, respectively, from about 1.425, 1.430, and 1.435 just above the tropopause to about 1.445, 1.455, and 1.458 at altitudes above 27 km, depending on the season and latitude. The aerosol properties presented can be used in models to study the effectiveness of heterogeneous chemistry, the mass loading of stratospheric aerosols, and the extinction and backscatter of aerosols at different wavelengths. Computed aerosol surface areas, rate coefficients for the heterogeneous reaction ClONO2 + H2O yields HOCl + HNO3 and aerosol mass concentrations before and after the Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 are shown as sample applications.

Description: The global distribution of ozone during the October 31, 1978, to May 6, 1993, observing lifetime of the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) is described, with emphasis on the low ozone amounts observed during 1992 and 1993. Ozone amount time series are extended beyong May 6, 1993, to the end of July 1993 using preliminary Meteor 3 TOMS data. Time series for zonally averaged ozone amounts show that there has not been a significant shift in the seasonal patterns of ozone maxima and minima caused by the Mount Pinatubo eruption or by the onset of very low ozone values during 1992 and 1993. There has been a relatively slow, nearly linear decrease in the amount of ozone over the entire globe from 1979 to the end of 1991, with rates ranging from no change at the equator to a 4 - 6% decrease per decade at midlatitudes and a 10 - 12% decrease per decade at higher latitudes. After the eruption of Mount Pinatubo during June 1991, the ozone amount decreased in the equatorial latitudes (10 deg S to 10 deg N) for about 6 months (-10 Dobson units (DU) between 0 deg and 10 deg S and -3 DU between 0 deg and 10 deg N). During 1992 and continuing into 1993, the rate of ozone decrease deviated from the previously linear trend with the onset of changes that were large in comparison with the historical range of ozone values from 1979 to 1991. The first of the large decreases in ozone amount occurred earlier, in February 1990 to May 1990, at 50 deg - 70 deg N. At high northern latitudes, the 1993 decreased ozone amounts were about 12.5% below the envelope of historical values; at midlatitudes they were about 7% lower; and at low latitudes they were about 4% lower. Area-weighted averages in the northern and southern hemispheres show that most of the 1992 - 1993 ozone losses have occurred in the northern hemisphere. The 1993 global average (70 deg S to 70 deg N) ozone amount is 3% below the 1979 to 1991 minimum, 5% below the historical envelope in the northern hemisphere, and near the lower boundary of the historical envelope in the southern hemisphere. In the 70 deg - 60 deg S latitude band, the ozone losses between 1979 and 1993 have reduced the annual minimum amount to values below those seen in the equatorial regions.

Description: A new 8-year global cloud climatology has been produced by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) that provides information every 3 h at 280-km spatial resolution covering the period from July 1983 through June 1991. If cloud detection errors and differences in area sampling are neglected, individual ISCCP cloud amounts agree with individual surface observations to within 15% rms with biases of only a few percent. When measurements of small-scale, broken clouds are isolated in the comparison, the rms differences between satellite and surface cloud amounts are about 25%, similar to the rms difference between ISCCP and Landsat determinations of cloud amount. For broken clouds, the average ISCCP cloud amounts are about 5% smaller than estimated by surface observers (difference between earth cover and sky cover), but about 5% larger than estimated from very high spatial resolution satellite observations (overestimate due to low spatial resolution offset by underestimate due to finite radiance thresholds). Detection errors caused by errors in the ISCCP clear-sky radiances or incorrect radiance threshold magnitudes, are the dominant source of error in monthly average cloud amounts. The ISCCP cloud amounts appear to be too low over land by about 10%, somewhat less in summer and somewhat more in winter, and about right (maybe slightly low) over oceans. In polar regions, ISCCP cloud amounts are probably too low by about 15%-25% in summer and 5%-10% in winter. Comparison of the ISCCP climatology to three other cloud climatologies shows excellent agreement in the geographic distribution and seasonal variation of cloud amounts; there is little agreement about day/night contrasts in cloud amount. Notable results from ISCCP are that the gobal annual mean cloud amount is about 63%, being about 23% higher over oceans than over land, that it varies by less than 1% rms from month to month, and that it has varied by about 4% on a time scale approximately equal to 2-4 years. The magnitude of interannual variations of local (280-km scale) monthly mean cloud amounts is about 7%-9%. Longitudinal contrasts in cloud amount are just as large as latitudinal contrasts. The largest seasonal variation of cloud amount occurs in the tropics, being larger in summer than in winter; the seasonal variation in the middle latitudes has the opposite phase. Polar regions may have little seasonable variability in cloud amount. The ISCCP results show slightly more nightime than daytime cloud amount over oceans and more daytime than nightime cloud amount over land.

Description: This paper, the first of three, describes the cloud detection part of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) analysis. Key features of the cloud detection alogrithm are (1) use of space and time radiance variation tests over several different space and time domains to account for the global variety of cloudy and clear characteristics, (2) estimation of clear radiance values for every time and place, and, (3) use of radiance thresholds that vary with the type of surface and climate regime. Design of the detection algorithm was supported by global, multiyear surveys of the statistical behavior of satellite-measured infrared and visible radiances to determine those characteristics that differentiate cloudy and clear scenes and how these characteristics vary among climate regimes. A summary of these statistical results is presented to illustrate how the cloud detection method works in a variety of circumstances. The sensitivity of the results to changing test parameter values is determined to provide a first estimate of the uncertainty of ISCCP cloud amounts. These test results (which exclude polar regions) suggest detection uncertainties of about 10% with possible negative biases of 5% (especially at night).

Description: The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Description: Clear-sky albedos and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) determined from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanners on board the earth radiation budget satellite and NOAA-9 spacecraft were analyzed for three target sites for the months February 1985-January 1987. The targets were oceans, deserts, and a multiscene site covering half the earth's surface. Year-to-year ratios of the monthly albedos and OLR were within the 0.98-1.02 range with a standard error of about 1%. The data indicate that ERBE scanner measurements were stable to within a few tenths of a percent for the two-year periods.

Description: A set of system simulations has been performed to evaluate candidate scanner designs for an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) for the Earth Observing System (EOS) of the late 1990s. Five different instruments are considered: (1) the Active Cavity Array (ACA), (2) the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System-Instrument (CERES-I), (3) the Conically Scanning Radiometer (CSR), (4) the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Cross-Track Scanner (ERBE), and (5) the Nimbus-7 Biaxial Scanner (N7). Errors in instantaneous, top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) satellite flux estimates are assumed to arise from two measurement problems: the sampling of space over a given geographic domain, and sampling in angle about a given spatial location. When angular sampling errors vanish due to the application of correct angular dependence models (ADMs) during inversion, the accuracy of each scanner design is determined by the instrument's ability to map the TOA radiance field in a uniform manner. In this regard, the instruments containing a cross-track scanning component (CERES-I and ERBE) do best. As errors in ADMs are encountered, cross-track instruments incur angular sampling errors more rapidly than biaxial instruments (N7, ACA, and CSR) and eventually overtake the biaxial designs in their total error amounts. A latitude bias (north-south error gradient) in the ADM error of cross-track instruments also exists. This would be objectionable when ADM errors are systematic over large areas of the globe. For instantaneous errors, however, cross-track scanners outperform biaxial or conical scanners for 2.5 deg latitude x 2.5 deg longitude target areas, providing that the ADM error is less than or equal to 30%. A key issue is the amount of systematic ADM error (departures from the mean models) that is present at the 2.5 deg resolution of the ERBE target areas. If this error is less than 30%, then the CERES-I, ERBE, and CSR, in order of increasing error, provide the most accurate instantaneous flux estimates, within 2-3 W/sq m of each other in reflected shortwave flux. The magnitude of this error is near the 10 W/sq m accuracy requirement of the user community. Longwave flux errors have been found to have the same space and time characteristics as errors in shortwave radiation, but only about 25% as large.

Description: This paper briefly reviews several single-frequency rain profiling methods for an airborne or spaceborne radar. The authors describe the different methods from a unified point of view starting from the basic differential equation. This facilitates the comparisons between the methods and also provides a better understanding of the physical and mathematical basis of the methods. The application of several methods to airborne radar data taken during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment is shown. Finally, the authors consider a hybrid method that provides a smooth transition between the Hitschfeld-Bordan method, which performs well at low attenuations, and the surface reference method, for which the relative error decreases with increasing path attenuation.

Description: An analysis of a spontaneous sudden stratospheric warming that occurred during a 2-year integration of the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Atmospheric Simulation Model is presented. The simulated warming resembles observed 'wave 1' warmings in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and provides an opportunity to investigate the radiative and dynamical processes occurring during the warming event. Isentropic analysis of potential vorticity sources and sinks indicates that dynamically induced departures from radiative equilibrium play an important role in the warming event. Enhanced radiative cooling associated with a series of upper stratospheric warm pools leads to radiative dampening within the polar vortex. Within the 'surf zone' large-scale radiative cooling leads to diabatic advection of high potential vorticity air from aloft. Lagrangian area diagnostics of the simulated warming agree well with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) analyses. Dynamical mixing is shown to account for the majority of the decrease in the size of the polar vortex during the simulated warming. An investigation of the nonlinear deformation of material lines that are initially coincident with diagnosed potential vorticity isopleths is conducted to clarify the relationship between the Lagrangian area diagnostics and potential vorticity advection during wave breaking events.

Description: Calculations of the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) signal in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II O3 and NO2 data between 1984 and 1991 are presented and have been investigated by using a two-dimensional model. The isentropic 2D model is a fully interactive radiative-dynamical-chemical model in which the eddy fluxes of chemical species are calculated in a consistent manner. The QBO in the model has been forced by relaxing the equatorial zonal wind toward the observations at Singapore allowing the comparison of the model with observations from specific years. The model reproduces the observed vertical structure of the equatorial ozone anomaly with the well-known transition from dynamical to photochemical control at around 28km. The model also reproduces the observed vertical structure of the SAGE II observed NO2 anomaly. The model studies have shown that it is the QBO modulation of NO2 which the main cause of QBO signal in O3 above 30 km. The model also reproduces the observed latitudinal structure of the QBO signals in O3 and NO2. Due to the differing horizontal distribution of O3 and NO(y) the ozone signal shows a distinct phase change in the subtropics whereas the NO2 anomaly gives a broader signal.

Description: A generalized form of the second-order van Leer transport scheme is derived. Several constraints to the implied subgrid linear distribution are discussed. A very simple positive-definite scheme can be derived directly from the generalized form. A monotonic version of the scheme is applied to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) for the moisture transport calculations, replacing the original fourth-order center-differencing scheme. Comparisons with the original scheme are made in idealized tests as well as in a summer climate simulation using the full GLA GCM. A distinct advantage of the monotonic transport scheme is its ability to transport sharp gradients without producing spurious oscillations and unphysical negative mixing ratio. Within the context of low-resolution climate simulations, the aforementioned characteristics are demonstrated to be very beneficial in regions where cumulus convection is active. The model-produced precipitation pattern using the new transport scheme is more coherently organized both in time and in space, and correlates better with observations. The side effect of the filling algorithm used in conjunction with the original scheme is also discussed, in the context of idealized tests. The major weakness of the proposed transport scheme with a local monotonic constraint is its substantial implicit diffusion at low resolution. Alternative constraints are discussed to counter this problem.

Description: A model is presented to compute the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation length scale l(sub epsilon) in a stably stratified shear flow. The expression for l(sub epsilon) is derived from solving the spectral balance equation for the turbulent kinetic energy. The buoyancy spectrum entering such equation is constructed using a Lagrangian timescale with modifications due to stratification. The final result for l(sub epsilon) is given in algebraic form as a function of the Froude number Fr and the flux Richardson number R(sub f), l(sub epsilon) = l(sub epsilon)(Fr, R(sub f). The model predicts that for R(sub f) less than R(sub fc), l(sub epsilon) decreases with stratification. An attractive feature of the present model is that it encompasses, as special cases, some seemingly different models for l(sub epsilon) that have been proposed in the past by Deardorff, Hunt et al., Weinstock, and Canuto and Minotti. An alternative form for the dissipation rate epsilon is also discussed that may be useful when one uses a prognostic equation for the heat flux. The present model is applicable to subgrid-scale models, which are needed in large eddy simulations (LES), as well as to ensemble average models. The model is applied to predict the variation of l(sub epsilon) with height z in the planetary boundary layer. The resulting l(sub epsilon) versus z profile reproduces very closely the nonmonotonic profile of l(sub epsilon) exhibited by many LES calculations, beginning with the one by Deardorff in 1974.

Description: Two stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993 are described using United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) analyses, calculated potential vorticity (PV) and diabetic heating, and N2O observed by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The first warming affected temperatures over a larger region, while the second produced a larger region of reversed zonal winds. Tilted baroclinic zones formed in the temperature field, and the polar vortex tilted westward with height. Narrow tongues of high PV and low N2O were drawn off the polar vortex, and irreversibly mixed. Tongues of material were drawn from low latitudes into the region between the polar vortex and the anticyclone; diabatic descent was also strongest in this region. Increased N2O over a broad region near the edge of the polar vortex indicates the importance of horizontal transport. N2O decreased in the vortex, consistent with enhanced diabatic descent during the warmings.

Description: In this paper, preliminary results in using orthogonal and continuous wavelet transform (WT) to identify period doubling and time-frequency localization in both synthetic and real data are presented. First, the Haar WT is applied to synthetic time series derived from a simple nonlinear dynamical system- a first-order quadratic difference equation. Second, the complex Morlet WT is used to study the time-frequency localization of tropical convection based on a high-resolution Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite infrared (IR) radiance dataset. The Haar WT of the synthetic time series indicates the presence and distinct separation of multiple frequencies in a period-doubling sequence. The period-doubling process generates a multiplicity of intermediate frequencies, which are manifested in the nonuniformity in time with respect to the phase of oscillations in the lower frequencies. Wavelet transform also enables the detection of extremely weak signals in high-order subharmonics resulting from the period-doubling bifurcations. These signals are either undetected or considered statistically insignificant by traditional Fourier analysis. The Morlet WT of the IR radiance dataset indicates the presence of multiple timescales, which are localized in both frequency and time. There are two regimes in the variation of IR radiance, corresponding to the wet and dry periods. Multiple timescales, ranging from semidiurnal, diurnal, synoptic, to intraseasonal with embedding structures, are active in the wet regime. In particular, synoptic variability is more prominent during the wet phase of an intensive intraseasonal cycle. These are not only consistent with, but also show more details than, previous findings by using other techniques. The phase-locking relationships among the oscillations with different time-scales suggest that both synoptic and intraseasonal variations may be mixed oscillations due to the interaction of self-excited oscillations in the tropical atmosphere and external forcings such as annual and diurnal solar radiation variations. Both examples show that WT is a powerful tool for analysis of phenomena involving multiscale interactions that exhibit localization in both frequency and time. A discussion on the caveats in the use of WT in geophysical data analysis is also presented.

Description: Observations of upper tropospheric relative humidity obtained from Raman lidar and Cross-chain Loran Atmospheric Sounding System (CLASS) sonde instruments obtained during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus-II field program are compared with satellite measurements from the GOES 6.7-micron channel. The 6.7-micron channel is sensitive to water vapor integrated over a broad layer in the upper troposphere (roughly 500-200 mbar). Instantaneous measurements of the upper tropospheric relative humidity from GOES are shown to agree to within roughly 6% of the nearest lidar observations and 9% of the nearest CLASS observations. The CLASS data exhibit a slight yet systematic dry bias in upper tropospheric humidity, a result which is consistent with previous radiosonde intercomparisons. Temporal stratification of the CLASS data indicates that the magnitude of the bias is dependent upon the time of day, suggesting a solar heating effect in the radiosonde sensor. Using CLASS profiles, the impact of vertical variability in relative humidity upon the GOES upper tropospheric humidity measurements is also examined. The upper tropospheric humidity inferred from the GOES 6.7-micron channel is demonstrated to agree to within roughly 5% of the relative humidity vertically averaged over the depth of atmosphere to which the 6.7-micron channel is sensitive. The results of this study encourage the use of satellite measurements in the 6.7-micron channel to quantitatively describe the distribution and temporal evolution of the upper tropospheric humidity field.

Description: Published estimates of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from satellite-measured microwave radiation show little agreement, even about the relative magnitudes of LWP in the tropics and midlatitudes. To understand these differences and to obtain more reliable estimate, optical and microwave LWP retrieval methods are compared using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) data. Errors in microwave LWP retrieval associated with uncertainties in surface, atmosphere, and cloud properties are assessed. Sea surface temperature may not produce great LWP errors, if accurate contemporaneous measurements are used in the retrieval. An uncertainty of estimated near-surface wind speed as high as 2 m/s produces uncertainty in LWP of about 5 mg/sq cm. Cloud liquid water temperature has only a small effect on LWP retrievals (rms errors less than 2 mg/sq cm), if errors in the temperature are less than 5 C; however, such errors can produce spurious variations of LWP with latitude and season. Errors in atmospheric column water vapor (CWV) are strongly coupled with errors in LWP (for some retrieval methods) causing errors as large as 30 mg/sq cm. Because microwave radiation is much less sensitive to clouds with small LWP (less than 7 mg/sq cm) than visible wavelength radiation, the microwave results are very sensitive to the process used to separate clear and cloudy conditions. Different cloud detection sensitivities in different microwave retrieval methods bias estimated LWP values. Comparing ISCCP and SSM/I LWPs, we find that the two estimated values are consistent in global, zonal, and regional means for warm, nonprecipitating clouds, which have average LWP values of about 5 mg/sq cm and occur much more frequently than precipitating clouds. Ice water path (IWP) can be roughly estimated from the differences between ISCCP total water path and SSM/I LWP for cold, nonprecipitating clouds. IWP in the winter hemisphere is about 3 times the LWP but only half the LWP in the summer hemisphere. Precipitating clouds contribute significantly to monthly, zonal mean LWP values determined from microwave, especially in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), because they have almost 10 times the liquid water (cloud plus precipitation) of nonprecipitating clouds on average. There are significant differences among microwave LWP estimates associated with the treatment of precipitating clouds.

Description: Cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is the radiative impact of clouds on the Earth's radiation budget. This study examines the diurnal variations of CRF using the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) monthly hourly flux data and the flux data derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model radiation code. The results for the months of April, July, and October 1985 and January 1986 are analyzed. We found that, in general, two data sets agreed. For longwave (LW) CRF the diurnal range over land is generally greater than that observed over oceans. For the 4-month averages the ERBE values are 15.8 W/sq m and 6.8 W/sq m for land and ocean, respectively, compared with the ISCCP calculated values of 18.4 W/sq m and 8.0 W/sq m, respectively. The land/ocean contrast is largely associated with changes in cloud amount and the temperature difference between surface and cloud top. It would be more important to note that the clear-sky flux (i.e., surface temperature) variabilities are shown to be a major contributor to the large variabilities over land. The maximum diurnal range is found to be in the summer hemisphere, and the minimum values in the winter hemisphere. It is also shown that the daytime maximum and the nighttime minimum are seen over large portions of land, whereas they occur at any local hour over most oceans. For shortwave (SW) CRF the daytime maximum values are about twice as large as monthly averages, and their highest frequency occurs at local noon, indicating that solar insolation is a primary factor for the diurnal variation of SW CRF. However, the comparison of the ERBE data with the ISCCP results demonstrated that the largest differences in the diurnal range and monthly mean of LW CRF were associated with tropical convergence zones, where clear-sky fluxes could be easily biased by persistent cloudiness and the inadequate treatment of the atmospheric water vapor.

Description: Temperature variations in the stratosphere from 1979 to 1992 are investigated using 365-day running mean of the National Meteorological Center gridded analysis temperature data. Significant variations are seen at all levels between 70 and 1 mbar. The middle stratosphere shows temperature peaks during 1982 and 1983. The upper stratosphere has significant temperature declines between 1 and 10 mbar from 1981 to 1984. Temperatures at all levels recover to near their prior values after 1984, with the 5-mbar temperatures requiring the greatest time to fully recover. The temperature declines at 1 mbar occur in both hemispheres, over all longitudes, and in every month of the year. The decreases are largest in the middle latitudes and the polar regions and during the fall and the winter months. Such temperature variations, which appear to be of natural origin, must be taken into consideration when searching for temperature trends caused by the increase of CO2 or other greenhouse gases which affect the radiative balance of the Earth-atmosphere system or stratospheric ozone.

Description: This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as clearly correlated with well-known features of the large-scale circulation.

Description: In this paper we describe fundamental properties of an 'off-line' three-dimensional transport model, that is, a model which uses prescribed rather than predicted winds. The model is currently used primarily for studying problems of the middle atmosphere because we have not (yet) incorporated a formulation for the convective transport of trace species, a prerequisite for many tropospheric problems. The off-line model is simpler and less expensive than a model which predicts the wind and mass evolution (an 'on-line' model), but it is more complex than the two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged transport models often used in the study of chemistry and transport in the middle atmosphere. It thus serves as a model of intermediate complexity and can fill a useful niche for the study of transport and chemistry. We compare simulations of four tracers, released in the lower stratosphere, in both the on- and off-line models to document the difference resulting from differences in modeling the same problem with this intermediate model. These differences identify the price to be paid in going to a cheaper and simpler calculation. The off-line model transports a tracer in three dimensions. For this reason, it requires fewer approximations than 2-D transport model, which must parameterize the effects of mixing by transient and zonally asymmetric wind features. We compare simulations of the off-line model with simulations of a 2-D model for two problems. First, we compare 2-D and three-dimensional (3-D) models by simulating the emission of an NO(x)-like tracer by a fleet of high-speed aircraft. The off-line model is then used to simulate the transport of C-14 and to contrast its simulation properties to that of the host of 2-D models which participated in an identical simulation in a recent NASA model intercomparison. The off-line model is shown to be somewhat sensitive to the sampling strategy for off-line winds. Simulations with daily averaged winds are in very good qualitative agreement but are less diffusive than when driven with instantaneous winds sampled at half-hour intervals. Simulations with the off-line and 2-D models are quite similar in the middle and upper stratosphere but behave quite differently in the lower stratosphere, where the 3-D model has a substantially more vigorous circulation. The off-line model is quite realistic in its simulation of C-14. While there are still systematic differences between the 3-D calculation and the observations, the differences seem to be substantially reduced when compared with the body of 2-D simulations documented in the above mentioned NASA intercomparison, particularly at 31 deg N.

Description: SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) echoes from the sea have previously been shown to be the result of rain and winds produced by convective stroms; rain damps the surface waves and causes ech-free holes, while the diverging winds associated with downdraft generate waves and associated echoes surrounding the holes. Gust fronts are also evident. Such a snapshot from 8 July 1978 has been examined in conjunction with ground-based radar. This leads to the conclusion that the SAR storm footprints resulted from storm processes that occurred up to an hour or more prior to the snapshot. A sequence of events is discerned from the SAR imagery in which new cell growth is triggered in between the converging outflows of two preexisting cells. In turn, the new cell generates a mini-squall line along its expanding gust front. While such phenomena are well known over land, the spaceborne SAR now allows important inferences to be made about the nature and frequency of convective storms over the oceans. The storm effects on the sea have significant implications for spaceborne wind scatterometry and rainfall measurements. Some of the findings herein remain speculative because of the great distance to the Miami weather radar-the only source of corroborative data.

Description: Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: Climatologies of convective precipitation were derived from passive microwave observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager using a scattering-based algorithm of Adler et al. Data were aggregated over periods of 3-5 months using data from 4 to 5 years. Data were also stratified by satellite overpass times (primarily 06 00 and 18 00 local time). Four regions (Mexico, Amazonia, western Africa, and the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (TOGA COARE area) were chosen for their meteorological interest and relative paucity of conventional observations. The strong diurnal variation over Mexico and the southern United States was the most striking aspect of the climatologies. Pronounced morning maxima occured offshore, often in concativities in the coastline, the result of the increased convergence caused by the coastline shape. The major feature of the evening rain field was a linear-shaped maximum along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Topography exerted a strong control on the rainfall in other areas, particularly near the Nicaragua/Honduras border and in Guatemala, where maxima in excess of 700 mm/month were located adjacent to local maxima in terrain. The correlation between the estimates and monthly gage data over the southern United States was low (0.45), due mainly to poor temporal sampling in any month and an inadequate sampling of the diurnal cycle. Over the Amazon Basin the differences in morning versus evening rainfall were complex, with an alternating series of morning/evening maxima aligned southwest to northeast from the Andes to the northeast Brazilian coast. A real extent of rainfall in Amazonia was slightly higher in the evening, but a maximum in morning precipitation was found on the Amazon River just east of Manaus. Precipitation over the water in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of Brazil was more pronounced in the morning, and a pronounced land-/sea-breeze circulation was found along the northeast coast of Brazil. Inter-comparison of four years revealed 1992 to be the driest over Amazonia, with about a 23% decrease in mean rate compared to the 4-year mean estimated rain rate.

Description: Ample evidence supports the significance of the high-latitude ionospheric contribution to magnetospheric plasma. Assuming flux conservation along a flux tube, the upward field-aligned ion flows observed in the magnetosphere require high-latitude ionospheric field-aligned ion upflows of the order of 10(exp 8) to 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s. Since radar and satellite observations of high-latitude F region flows at times exceed this flux requirement by an order of magnitude, the thermal ionospheric upflows are not simply the ionospheric response to a magnetospheric flux requirement. Several ionospheric ion upflow mechanisms have been proposed, but simulations based on fluid theory do not reproduce all the observed features of ionospheric ion upflows. Certain asymmetries in the statistical morphology of high-latitude F region ion upflows suggest that the ion upflows may be generated by ion-neutral frictional heating. We developed a single-component (O(+)), time-dependent gyro-kinetic model of the high-latitude F region response to frictional heating in which the neutral exobase is a discontinuous boundary between fully collisional and collisionless plasmas. The concept of a discontinuous neutreal exobase and the assumption of a constant and uniform polarization electric field reduce the ion velocity distribution function, from which we can compute the ion density, parallel velocity, parallel and perpendicular temperature, and parallel flux. Using our model, we simulated the response of a convecting flux tube between 500 km and 2500 km to various frictional heating inputs; the results were both qualitatively and quantitatively different from fluid model results, which may indicate an inadequacy of the fluid theory approach. The gyro-kinetic frictional heating model responses to the various simulations were qualitatively similar: (1) initial perturbations of all the modeled parameters propagated rapidly up the flux tube, (2) transient values of the ion parallel velocity, temperature, and flux exceeded 3 km/s, 2 x 10(exp 4) K, and 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s, respectively, (3) a second transient regime developed wherein the parallel temperature drops to very low values (a few hundred Kelvins), and (4) well after heating ceased, large parallel temperatures and large downward parallel velocities and fluxes developed as the flux tube slowly returned to diffusive equilibrium. The ion velocity distributions during the simulation are often non-Maxwellian and are sometimes composed of two distinct ion populations.

Description: The meteorological satellite program began in the United States as the result of the actions taken by a very small but dedicated group of people from the late 1940s to 1960. This paper provides firsthand accounts by two of these dedicated individuals. Their remarks provide an insight into the trials and tribulations they and the program encountered during these very early years. Those now active in the program, many of whom do not recall this time, might appreciate the effort of these pioneers and the legacy they left for us.

Description: The Experimental Cloud Lidar Pilot Study (ECLIPS) was initiated to obtain statistics on cloud-base height, extinction, optical depth, cloud brokenness, and surface fluxes. Two observational phases have taken place, in October-December 1989 and April-July 1991, with intensive 30-day periods being selected within the two time intervals. Data are being archived at NASA Langley Research Center and, once there, are readily available to the international scientific community. This article describes the scale of the study in terms of its international involvement and in the range of data being recorded. Lidar observations of cloud height and backscatter coefficient have been taken from a number of ground-based stations spread around the globe. Solar shortwave and infrared longwave fluxes and infrared beam radiance have been measured at the surface wherever possible. The observations have been tailored to occur around the overpass times of the NOAA weather satellites. This article describes in some detail the various retrieval methods used to obtain results on cloud-base height, extinction coefficient, and infrared emittance, paying particular attention to the uncertainties involved.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the relative importance of local vs remote control on cloud radiative forcing using a cumulus ensemble model. It is found that cloud and surface radiation forcings are much more sensitive to the mean vertical motion assoicated with large scale tropical circulation than to the local SST (sea surface temperature). When the local SST is increased with the mean vertical motion held constant, increased surface latent and sensible heat flux associated with enhanced moisture recycling is found to be the primary mechanism for cooling the ocean surface. Large changes in surface shortwave fluxes are related to changes in cloudiness induced by changes in the large scale circulation. These results are consistent with a number of earlier empirical studies, which raised concerns regarding the validity of the cirrus-thermostat hypothesis (Ramanathan and Collins, 1991). It is argued that for a better understanding of cloud feedback, both local and remote controls need to be considered and that a cumulus ensemble model is a powerful tool that should be explored for such purpose.

Description: The probability of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) occurrence in the Antarctic and Arctic has been estimated using Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II aerosol extinction data from 1978 to 1989. Antarctic PSCs are typically observed by SAM II from mid-May to early November, with a maximum zonal average probability of about 0.6 at 18-20 km in August. The typical Arctic PSC season extends only from late November to early March, with a peak zonal average probability of about 0.1 in early February at 20-22 km. There is considerable year-to-year variability in Arctic PSC sightings because of changes in the dynamics of the northern polar vortex. Year-to-year variability in Antarctic sightings is most prominent in the number of late season clouds. Maximum PSC sighting probabilities in both polar regions occur in the region from 90 deg W through the Greenwich meridian to 90 deg E, where temperatures are coldest on average. Arctic sighting probabilities approach zero outside this region, but clouds have been sighted in the Antarctic at all longitudes during most months. Inferred PSC formation temperatures remain constant throughout the Arctic winter and are similar to those in early Antarctic winter. PSC formation temperatures in the Antarctic drop markedly in the 15 to 20-km region by September, a pattern consistent with the irreversible loss of HNO3 and H2O vapor in sedimenting PSC particles.

Description: A one-speed Boltzmann transport theory, with diffusion approximations, is applied to study the radiative transfer properties of lightning in optically thick thunderclouds. Near-infrared (lambda = 0.7774 micrometers) photons associated with a prominent oxygen emission triplet in the lightning spectrum are considered. Transient and spatially complex lightning radiation sources are placed inside a rectangular parallelepiped thundercloud geometry and the effects of multiple scattering are studied. The cloud is assumed to be composed of a homogeneous collection of identical spherical water droplets, each droplet a nearly conservative, anisotropic scatterer. Conceptually, we treat the thundercloud like a nuclear reactor, with photons replaced by neutrons, and utilize standard one-speed neutron diffusion techniques common in nuclear reactor analyses. Valid analytic results for the intensity distribution (expanded in spherical harmonics) are obtained for regions sufficiently far from sources. Model estimates of the arrival-time delay and pulse width broadening of lightning signals radiated from within the cloud are determined and the results are in good agreement with both experimental data and previous Monte Carlo estimates. Additional model studies of this kind will be used to study the general information content of cloud top lightning radiation signatures.

Description: Five years of meteorological and hydrological data from a typical New England watershed where winter snow cover is significant were used to drive and validate two off-line land surface schemes suitable for use in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM): a baseline scheme that does not model the physics of a snowpack and therefore, neglects the insulating properties of snow cover; and a modified scheme in which a three-layer snowpack is modeled. Comparing baseline model results with validation data reveals several model deficiencies. Surface radiation temperatures could not adequately be modeled and the ground froze to unreasonable depths. Furthermore, because of ground cooling resulting from large surface heat fluxes to the atmosphere from the uninsulated surface, deeper model layers did not unfreeze until midsummer. As such, the normal hydrologic processes of runoff, ground water infiltration, and movement, etc., are compromised for a good part of the year. With the inclusion of a simple three-layer snow model into the baseline model, not only are the ground and surface radiation temperatures adequately modeled but all the features of snowpack ripening that characterize pack growth/ablation are simulated.

Description: A three-year climatology of satellite-estimated rainfall for the warm season for the southwest United States and Mexico has been derived from data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The microwave data have been stratified by month (June, July, August), year (1988, 1989, 1990), and time of day (morning and evening orbits). A rain algorithm was employed that relates 86-GHz brightness temperatures to rain rate using a coupled cloud-radiative transfer model. Results identify an early evening maximum in rainfall along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental during all three months. A prominent morning rainfall maximum was found off the western Mexican coast near Mazatlan in July and August. Substantial differences between morning and evening estimates were noted. To the extent that three years constitute a climatology, results of interannual variability are presented. Results are compared and contrasted to high-resolution (8 km, hourly) infrared cloud climatologies, which consist of the frequency of occurrence of cloud colder than -38 C and -58 C. This comparison has broad implications for the estimation of rainfall by simple (cloud threshold) techniques. By sampling the infrared data to approximate the time and space resolution of the microwave, we produce ratios (or adjustment factors) by which we can adjust the infrared rain estimation schemes. This produces a combined microwave/infrared rain algorithm for monthly rainfall. Using a limited set of raingage data as ground truth, an improvement (lower bias and root-mean-square error) was demonstrated by this combined technique when compared to either method alone. The diurnal variability of convection during July 1990 was examined using hourly rain estimates from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index and the convective stratiform technique, revealing a maximum in estimated rainfall from 1800 to 2100 local time. It is in this time period when the SSM/I evening orbit occurs. A high-resolution topographic database was available to aid in interpreting the influence of topography on the rainfall patterns.

Description: An advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) has been developed and flown in the NASA ER-2-high-altitude aircraft for imaging various atmospheric and surface processes, primarily the internal structure of rain clouds. The AMPR is a scanning four-frequency total power microwave radiometer that is externally calibrated with high-emissivity warm and cold loads. Separate antenna systems allow the sampling of the 10.7- and 19.35-GHz channels at the same spatial resolution, while the 37.1- and 85.5-GHz channels utilize the same multifrequency feedhorn as the 19.35-GHz channel. Spatial resolutions from an aircraft altitude of 20-km range from 0.6 km at 85.5 GHz to 2.8 km at 19.35 and 10.7 GHz. All channels are sampled every 0.6 km in both along-track and cross-track directions, leading to a contiguous sampling pattern of the 85.5-GHz 3-dB beamwidth footprints, 2.3X oversampling of the 37.1-GHz data, and 4.4X oversampling of the 19.35- and 10.7-GHz data. Radiometer temperature sensitivities range from 0.2 to 0.5 C. Details of the system are described, including two different calibration systems and their effect on the data collected. Examples of oceanic rain systems are presented from Florida and the tropical west Pacific that illustrate the wide variety of cloud water, rainwater, and precipitation-size ice combinations that are observable from aircraft altitudes.

Description: A general circulation model (GCM) is used to model global lightning distributions and frequencies. Both total and cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies are modeled using parameterizations that relate the depth of convective clouds to lightning frequencies. The model's simulations of lightning distributions in time and space show good agreement with available observations. The model's annual mean climatology shows a global lightning frequency of 77 flashes per second, with cloud-to-ground lightning making up 25% of the total. The maximum lightning activity in the GCM occurs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with approximately 91% of all lightning occurring over continental and coastal regions.

Description: This work is directed toward approximating the evolution of forecast error covariances for data assimilation. The performance of different algorithms based on simplification of the standard Kalman filter (KF) is studied. These are suboptimal schemes (SOSs) when compared to the KF, which is optimal for linear problems with known statistics. The SOSs considered here are several versions of optimal interpolation (OI), a scheme for height error variance advection, and a simplified KF in which the full height error covariance is advected. To employ a methodology for exact comparison among these schemes, a linear environment is maintained, in which a beta-plane shallow-water model linearized about a constant zonal flow is chosen for the test-bed dynamics. The results show that constructing dynamically balanced forecast error covariances rather than using conventional geostrophically balanced ones is essential for successful performance of any SOS. A posteriori initialization of SOSs to compensate for model - data imbalance sometimes results in poor performance. Instead, properly constructed dynamically balanced forecast error covariances eliminate the need for initialization. When the SOSs studied here make use of dynamically balanced forecast error covariances, the difference among their performances progresses naturally from conventional OI to the KF. In fact, the results suggest that even modest enhancements of OI, such as including an approximate dynamical equation for height error variances while leaving height error correlation structure homogeneous, go a long way toward achieving the performance of the KF, provided that dynamically balanced cross-covariances are constructed and that model errors are accounted for properly. The results indicate that such enhancements are necessary if unconventional data are to have a positive impact.

Description: A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Description: Radar or satellite observations of an area generate sequences of rain-rate maps. From a gridded map a histogram of rain rates can be obtained representing the relative areas occupied by rain rates of various strengths. The histograms vary with time as precipitating systems in the area evolve and decay and amounts of convective and stratiform rain in the area change. A method of decomposing the histograms into linear combinations of a few empirical distributions with time-dependent coefficients is developed, using principal component analysis as a starting point. When applied to a tropical Atlantic dataset (GATE), two distributions emerge naturally from the analysis, resembling stratiform and convective rain-rate distributions in that they peak at low and high rain rates, respectively. The two 'modes' have different timescales and only the high-rain-rate mode has a statistically significant diurnal cycle. The ability of just two modes to describe rain variabiltiy over an area can explain why methods of estimating area-averaged rain rate from the area covered by rain rates above a certain threshold are so successful.

Description: Carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) were measured in the 0.15- to 6-km portion of the troposphere over subarctic and boreal landscapes of midcontinent and eastern Canada during July - August 1990. In the mid-continent region, Arctic air entering the region was characterized by relatively uniform CO concentrations (86-108 parts per billion by volume (ppbv)) and CH4 concentrations (1729-1764 ppbv). Local biomass burning and long-range transport of CO into the area from industrial/urban sources and distant fires did frequently produce enhanced and variable concentrations. Emissions of CH4 from the Hudson Bay lowlands was the primary source for enhanced and variable concentrations, especially at altitudes of 0.15-1 km. In eastern Canada, most of the observed variability in CO and CH4 was similar in origin to the phenomena described for the midcontinent region. However, unexpectedly low concentrations of CO (51 ppbv) and CH4 (1688 ppbv) were measured in the midtroposphere on several flights. Combined meteorological and chemical data indicated that the low CO-CH4 events were the result of long-range transport of tropical Pacific marine air to subarctic latitudes.

Description: We report features of acidic gases in the troposphere from 9 to 5000 m altitude above ground over the Canadian taiga in the summer of 1990. The measurements were conducted at a 30-m meteorological tower and from the NASA Wallops Electra aircraft as part of the joint U.S.-Canadian Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B Northern Wetland Studies (NOWES). We sampled air for acidic gases using the mist chamber collector coupled with subsequent analysis using ion chromatography. At the tower we collected samples at two heights during a 13-day period, including diurnal studies. Using eddy flux and profile data, we estimated the biosphere/troposphere fluxes of nitric, formic, and acetic acids and sulfur dioxide. For the organic acids, emissions from the taiga in the afternoon hours and deposition during the predawn morning hours were observed. The flux intensities alone were however not high enough to explain the observed changes in mixing ratios. The measured deposition fluxes of nitric acid were high enough to have a significant influence on its mixing ratio in the boundary layer. On three days we measured vertical profiles of nitric, formic, and acetic acids through the lower to midtroposphere. We found that the chemical composition of the troposphere was extremely heterogenous. Pronounced layers of polluted air were readily apparent from our measurements. Local photochemical production and episodic long-range transport of trace components, originating from biomass burning and possibly industrial emissions, appear to have a strong influence on the composition of the troposphere and biosphere/troposphere fluxes of acidic gases at this site.

Description: In this study we perform an error analysis for cloud-top pressure retrieval using the High-Resolution Infrared Radiometric Sounder (HIRS/2) 15-microns CO2 channels for the two-layer case of transmissive cirrus overlying an overcast, opaque stratiform cloud. This analysis includes standard deviation and bias error due to instrument noise and the presence of two cloud layers, the lower of which is opaque. Instantaneous cloud pressure retrieval errors are determined for a range of cloud amounts (0.1-1.0) and cloud-top pressures (850-250 mb). Large cloud-top pressure retrieval errors are found to occur when a lower opaque layer is present underneath an upper transmissive cloud layer in the satellite field of view (FOV). Errors tend to increase with decreasing upper-cloud effective cloud amount and with decreasing cloud height (increasing pressure). Errors in retrieved upper-cloud pressure result in corresponding errors in derived effective cloud amount. For the case in which a HIRS FOV has two distinct cloud layers, the difference between the retrieved and actual cloud-top pressure is positive in all cases, meaning that the retrieved upper-cloud height is lower than the actual upper-cloud height. In addition, errors in retrieved cloud pressure are found to depend upon the lapse rate between the low-level cloud top and the surface. We examined which sounder channel combinations would minimize the total errors in derived cirrus cloud height caused by instrument noise and by the presence of a lower-level cloud. We find that while the sounding channels that peak between 700 and 1000 mb minimize random errors, the sounding channels that peak at 300-500 mb minimize bias errors. For a cloud climatology, the bias errors are most critical.

Description: We examine the influence of aggregation errors on developing estimates of regional soil-CO2 flux from temperate forests. We find daily soil-CO2 fluxes to be more sensitive to changes in soil temperatures (Q(sub 10) = 3.08) than air temperatures (Q(sub 10) = 1.99). The direct use of mean monthly air temperatures with a daily flux model underestimates regional fluxes by approximately 4%. Temporal aggregation error varies with spatial resolution. Overall, our calibrated modeling approach reduces spatial aggregation error by 9.3% and temporal aggregation error by 15.5%. After minimizing spatial and temporal aggregation errors, mature temperate forest soils are estimated to contribute 12.9 Pg C/yr to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Georeferenced model estimates agree well with annual soil-CO2 fluxes measured during chamber studies in mature temperate forest stands around the globe.

Description: This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Description: Winds derived from a stratospheric and tropospheric data assimilation system (STRATAN) are compared with balance winds derived from National Meteorological Center/Climate Analysis Center (NMC/CAC) heights. At middle latitudes in the lower stratosphere, the results show that STRATAN winds are comparable to the balance winds. In addition STRATAN winds provide useful horizontal divergence analyses, and hence, vertical velocity fields. More generally, the STRATAN winds are useful in a more extended domain than the balanced winds. In particular, they are useful in the Tropics and the upper stratosphere where the balanced winds fail. The assimilation also captures the quasi-biennial oscillation, but does not do a good job of representing tropical waves.

Description: The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Description: A new framework for interpreting the origin of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO), which avoids the speed and scale selection problems in the previous theories, is proposed in this study. In this interpretation TISO is viewed as an oscillation driven by an eastward moving convective region. This convective region consists of one or more super cloud clusters originating in the Indian Ocean and terminating in mid-Pacific, and is then followed by another convective region arising in the Indian Ocean in a period of 40-50 days. Additionally, a formal analogy is pointed out between super cloud clusters and the middle-latitude baroclinic wave packets. This study includes a simulation of TISO in a 2D model to support our interpretation. Experiments were conducted with four different convection schemes. The authors advocate that the successful simulation of TISO depends on the successful simulation of super clouds cluster, which in turn depends on the successful simulation of the life cycle of cloud clusters, which further in turn depends on the choice of cumulus convection scheme. What makes a cumulus convection scheme successful in simulating TISO is discussed.

Description: GEMPAK is a general meteorological software package developed at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. It includes programs to analyze and display surface, upper-air, and gridded data, including model output. There are very general programs to list, edit, and plot data on maps, to display profiles and time series, to draw and fill contours, to draw streamlines, to plot symbols for clouds, sky cover, and pressure tendency, and draw cross sections in the case of gridded data and sounding data. In addition, there are Barnes objective analysis programs to grid surface and upper-air data. The programs include the capabilities to derive meteorological parameters from those found in the dataset, to perform vertical interpolations of sounding data to different coordinate systems, and to compute an extensive set of gridded diagnostic quantities by specifying various nested combinations of scalars and vector arithmetic, algebraic, and differential operators. The GEMPAK 5.1 graphics/transformation subsystem, GEMPLT, provides device-independent graphics. GEMPLT also has the capability to display output in a variety of map projections or overlaid on satellite imagery. GEMPAK 5.1 is written in FORTRAN 77 and C-language and has been implemented on VAX computers under VMS and on computers running the UNIX operating system. During installation and normal use, this package occupies approximately 100Mb of hard disk space. The UNIX version of GEMPAK includes drivers for several graphic output systems including MIT's X Window System (X11,R4), Sun GKS, PostScript (color and monochrome), Silicon Graphics, and others. The VMS version of GEMPAK also includes drivers for several graphic output systems including PostScript (color and monochrome). The VMS version is delivered with the object code for the Transportable Applications Environment (TAE) program, version 4.1 which serves as a user interface. A color monitor is recommended for displaying maps on video display devices. Data for rendering regional maps is included with this package. The standard distribution medium for the UNIX version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a 6250 BPI 9-track magnetic tape in DEC VAX BACKUP format. The VMS version is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in DEC VAX BACKUP format. This program was developed in 1985. The current version, GEMPAK 5.1, was released in 1992. The package is delivered with source code. An extensive collection of subroutine libraries allows users to format data for use by GEMPAK, to develop new programs, and to enhance existing ones.

Description: GEMPAK is a general meteorological software package developed at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. It includes programs to analyze and display surface, upper-air, and gridded data, including model output. There are very general programs to list, edit, and plot data on maps, to display profiles and time series, to draw and fill contours, to draw streamlines, to plot symbols for clouds, sky cover, and pressure tendency, and draw cross sections in the case of gridded data and sounding data. In addition, there are Barnes objective analysis programs to grid surface and upper-air data. The programs include the capabilities to derive meteorological parameters from those found in the dataset, to perform vertical interpolations of sounding data to different coordinate systems, and to compute an extensive set of gridded diagnostic quantities by specifying various nested combinations of scalars and vector arithmetic, algebraic, and differential operators. The GEMPAK 5.1 graphics/transformation subsystem, GEMPLT, provides device-independent graphics. GEMPLT also has the capability to display output in a variety of map projections or overlaid on satellite imagery. GEMPAK 5.1 is written in FORTRAN 77 and C-language and has been implemented on VAX computers under VMS and on computers running the UNIX operating system. During installation and normal use, this package occupies approximately 100Mb of hard disk space. The UNIX version of GEMPAK includes drivers for several graphic output systems including MIT's X Window System (X11,R4), Sun GKS, PostScript (color and monochrome), Silicon Graphics, and others. The VMS version of GEMPAK also includes drivers for several graphic output systems including PostScript (color and monochrome). The VMS version is delivered with the object code for the Transportable Applications Environment (TAE) program, version 4.1 which serves as a user interface. A color monitor is recommended for displaying maps on video display devices. Data for rendering regional maps is included with this package. The standard distribution medium for the UNIX version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of GEMPAK 5.1 is a 6250 BPI 9-track magnetic tape in DEC VAX BACKUP format. The VMS version is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in DEC VAX BACKUP format. This program was developed in 1985. The current version, GEMPAK 5.1, was released in 1992. The package is delivered with source code. An extensive collection of subroutine libraries allows users to format data for use by GEMPAK, to develop new programs, and to enhance existing ones.

Description: A meteorological overview of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight series is presented. Synoptic analyses of mid-tropospheric circulation patterns are combined with isentropic back trajectory calculations to describe the long-range (400-3000 km) atmospheric transport mechanisms and pathways of air masses to the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of North America during July and August 1988. Siberia and the northern Pacific Ocean were found to be the two most likely source areas for 3-day transport to the study areas in Alaska. Transport to the Barrow region was frequently influenced by polar vortices and associated short-wave troughs over the Arctic Ocean, while the Bethel area was most often affected by lows migrating across the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, as well as ridges of high pressure which built into interior Alaska. July 1988 was warmer and dryer than normal over much of Alaska. As a result, the 1988 Alaska fire season was one of the most active of the past decade. Airborne lidar measurements verified the presence of biomass burning plumes on many flights, often trapped in thin subsidence layer temperature inversions. Several cases of stratosphere/troposphere exchange were noted, based upon potential vorticity analyses and aircraft lidar data, especially in the Barrow region and during transit flights to and from Alaska.

Description: The aerosol optical depth over the Konza Prairie, near Manhattan, Kansas, was recorded at various locations by five separate teams. These measurements were made in support of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) and used to correct imagery from a variety of satellite and aircraft sensors for the effects of atmospheric scattering and absorption. The results from one instrument are reported here for 26 days in 1987 and for 7 in 1989. Daily averages span a range of 0.05 to 0.28 in the midvisible wavelengths. In addition, diurnal variations are noted in which the afternoon optical depths are greater than those of the morning by as much as 0.07. A comparison between instruments and processing techniques used to determine these aerosol optical depths is provided. The first comparisons are made using summer 1987 data. Differences of as much as 0.05 (midvisible) are observed. Although these data allow reasonable surface reflectance retrievals, they do not agree to within the performance limits typically associated with these types of instruments. With an accuracy goal of 0.02 a preseason calibration/comparison experiment was conducted at a mountain site prior to the final field campaign in 1989. Good calibration data were obtained, and good agreement (0.01, midvisible) was observed in the retrieved optical depth acquired over the Konza. By comparing data from the surface instruments at different locations, spatial inhomogeneities are determined. Then, data from the airborne tracking sunphotometer allow one to determine variations as a function of altitude. Finally, a technique is proposed for using the in situ data to establish an instrument calibration.

Description: The underlying mean and variance properties of surface net radiation, sensible-latent heat fluxes and soil heat flux are studied over the densely instrumented grassland region encompassing FIFE. Flux variability is discussed together with the problem of scaling up to area-averaged fluxes. Results are compared and contrasted for cloudy and clear situations and examined for the influence of surface-induced biophysical controls (burn and grazing treatments) and topographic controls (aspect ratios and slope factors).

Description: Airborne measurements of flux densities of carbon dioxide CO2, sensible heat, and latent heat (H2O) obtained over the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) site during three intensive field campaigns in 1987 and one in 1989 are examined to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of CO2 and energy transfer processes. These data were collected by the National Research Council Twin Otter using low-level flight patterns, all flown at constant pressure altitude during relatively clear days. The spatial variations are larger in 1989 than in 1987 and a higher correlation is observed between the fluxes and the surface features. The temporal patterns are easier to characterize with the relatively homogeneous situation of 1987. Functional relationships obtained between fluxes of CO2 and latent heat, CO2 fluxes and greenness index, latent heat fluxes and greenness index, and between sensible heat fluxes and surface air temperature differences are presented for one day in 1987 and one in 1989 as an example of the kind of information that can be obtained from grid flights at constant pressure altitude.

Description: Radiometric measurements at 90 GHz and three sideband frequencies near the peak water vapor absorption line of 183.3 GHz were made with Advanced Microwave Moisture Sounder (AMMS) aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Global Aerosol Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) mission over the Pacific Ocean in November 1989. Some of the measurements over the high-latitude regions (greater than 50 deg N or 50 deg S) were analyzed for the retrieval of total precipitable water less than 0.5 g/sq cm both over land and ocean surfaces. The results show that total precipitable water from a relatively dry atmosphere could be estimated with high sensitivity from these radiometric measurements. The retrieved values over ocean surface show a decrease toward the polar region as expected. The retrieved total precipitable water over land correlates positively with the aircraft radar altitude. This positive correlation is expected because the aircraft radar altitude provides a measure of atmospheric water vapor burden above the surface. Retrieved high reflectivities over land surface at 90 GHz and 183 GHz are presumably related to snow cover on the ground. This suggests that radiometric measurements at these frequencies could be used to map snow at high-latitude regions.

Description: This study is based on the NCAR King Air aircraft and radiosonde observations on 31 October 1986 during the FIRE in Wisconsin over Oshkosh. Aircraft step-up and spiral descent flights are used to obtain kinematic and thermodynamic data. In the step-up maneuver, six different penetrations were made between 1528 and 1616 UTC. Each penetration was about 30 km long separated in the vertical by about 300 m. The time difference between the two spiral soundings was about 43 min. The aircraft descended at a rate of 1.5 m/s during these spiral soundings. Kinematic, cloud physical, and radiometric observations from various instruments are used to estimate the different terms in the moisture- and heat-budget equations. The results show that the advection terms, estimated using the mean longitudinal wind and vertical velocities, and radiative fluxes are important in forming budgets for the cirrus layers. Ice-crystal growth is significant in the upper layers. The maintenance of cirrus can be attributed to relatively warm and moist air advection, radiative cooling at upper levels, and moisture advection in the vertical. Turbulent heat and moisture fluxes are found to be significant in the low levels of cirrus.

Description: The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Description: The vicinity of KSC, where the primary ground truth site of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) program is located, was the focal point of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment in July and Aug. 1991. In addition to several specialized radars, local coverage was provided by the C-band (5 cm) radar at Patrick AFB. Point measurements of rain rate were provided by tipping bucket rain gage networks. Besides these ground-based activities, airborne radar measurements with X- and Ka-band nadir-looking radars on board an aircraft were also recorded. A unique combination data set of airborne radar observations with ground-based observations was obtained in the summer convective rain regime of central Florida. We present a comparison of these data intending a preliminary validation. A convective rain event was observed simultaneously by all three instrument types on the evening of 27 July 1991. The high resolution aircraft radar was flown over convective cells with tops exceeding 10 km and observed reflectivities of 40 to 50 dBZ at 4 to 5 km altitude, while the low resolution surface radar observed 35 to 55 dBZ echoes and a rain gage indicated maximum surface rain rates exceeding 100 mm/hr. The height profile of reflectivity measured with the airborne radar show an attenuation of 6.5 dB/km (two way) for X-band, corresponding to a rainfall rate of 95 mm/hr.

Description: The Space Shuttle provides a unique perspective for cloud observation. From it, an observer can simulataneously view the grand scale and individual microscale components. An observer can differentiate between the exceptional and the routine and rapidly identify the phenomenon of interest. The capabilities include multiple aspect viewing, vision enhancement, instant data transmission, and the intelligence and decision-making ability required for meaningful selective observations. When these observations are used with other information, an improved understanding of the processes follows. Examples of these data and their application with other information sources are given along with suggestions for research.

Description: Flash rates measured from the Space Shuttle range from 27.8 flashes per minute to 77 flashes per minute. The cloud is an optically thick medium which effectively scatters the energy from a lightning discharge and thereby broadens the risetime and duration of each lightning pulse. Because of the small size, spacecraft sensors with resolutions of 1 km or more are unlikely to detect the individual lightning channels. Instead, the energy from the lightning channel is scattered within the cloud, thereby broadening the apparent area. All of these measurements of lightning flash area and flash rate have involved manual manipulation and analysis of the video or film data. Only a small percentage of the Space Shuttle lightning video has been analyzed. An attempt is made to combine the use of real-time digital disk system and an automated analysis routine in order to overcome this limitation and make processing of a sequence of video frames a much less labor-intensive task.

Description: A millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is described. The MIR is a nine-channel total power radiometer developed for atmospheric research. Three dual-pass band channels are centered about the strongly opaque 183-GHz water vapor absorption line; the frequencies are 183 +/- 1, +/- 3, and +/- 7 GHz. Another channel is located on the wing of this band at 150 GHz. These four channels have varying degrees of opacity from which the water vapor profile can be inferred. The design and salient characteristics of this instrument are discussed, together with its expected benefits.

Description: A new generation of automatic sunphotometers is used to systematically monitor clear sky total column aerosol concentration and optical properties, precipitable water and total column ozone diurnally and annually in West Africa and South America. The instruments are designed to measure direct beam sun, solar aureole and sky radiances in nine narrow spectral bands from the UV to the near infrared on an hourly basis. The instrumentation and the algorithms required to reduce the data for subsequent analysis are described.

Description: During the tropical experiment of NASA's Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Program (STEP), in situ radon and other trace constituent measurements were made aboard a NASA ER-2 high-altitude research aircraft to investigate the mechanisms of irreversible transfers from the troposphere into the tropical stratosphere. Observations made in and downwind of the cirrus shields of three large tropical cyclones and downwind of the cirrus anvil of a large cumulonimbus cloud cluster showed several clear instances of elevated radon activity occurring simultaneously with low total water mixing ratios. These observations are unambiguous evidence of an effective dehydration process, capable of reducing total water vapor mixing ratios to less than 2.5 ppmv, occurring in conjunction with troposphere-to-stratosphere transport and indicate that rapid localized convection, rather than slow regional mean motions, was responsible for the observed transports and associated with the accompanying dehydration. Radon activities measured in regions of active or recent troposphere-to-stratosphere transport were consistent with the 17 pCi/scm mean value needed to support the observed abundance of stratospheric 210 Pb.

Description: Measurements of stratospheric and upper tropospheric cloud water plus water vapor (total water) and water vapor were made with two Lyman alpha hygrometers as part of the STEP tropical experiment. The in situ measurements were made in the Darwin, Australia, area in January and February of 1987 on an ER-2 aircraft. Average stratospheric water vapor at a potential temperature of 375 K (the average value of Theta at the tropopause) was 2.4 parts per million by volume (ppmv). This water mixing ratio is below the 3.0 to 4.0 ppmv necessary to be consistent with the observed upper stratospheric dryness. Saturation with respect to ice and the potential for dehydration was observed up to Theta = 402 K.

Description: The STEP tropical objectives were successfully met during the flight experiments conducted from Darwin, Australia, January 16 to February 16, 1987. Necessary and sufficient measurements were made in, above, and downwind from very cold cirrus clouds, produced by three convective cloud types, to demonstrate irreversible mass transports into and dehydration in the lower tropical stratosphere. The three types are defined and described in terms of the physical processes that produce them and illustrated by examples derived from in situ and remote measurements. Intense solar heating is shown to produce, in addition to the usual vertical, sea breeze circulations normal to the coastline, an unusual pair of continental spanning, horizontal circulations. An upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric anticyclonic circulation, inclined upward toward the tropics, contributes to the dehydration of dissipating cirrus anvils and intensifies the upper level, tropical easterlies. The lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation with tropical westerlies and extratropical easterlies is in direct conflict with the normal tropical easterlies and extratropical westerlies. Impulsive switches between these two opposing lower-level wind systems create conditions favorable for each of these cloud types and explain the summer season's aperiodic variability.

Description: Overflights of a tropical cyclone during the Australian winter monsoon field experiment of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) show the presence of two mesoscale phenomena: a vertically propagating gravity wave with a horizontal wavelength of about 110 km and a feature with a horizontal scale comparable to that of the cyclone's entire cloud shield. The larger feature is fairly steady, though its physical interpretation is ambiguous. The 110-km gravity wave is transient, having maximum amplitude early in the flight and decreasing in amplitude thereafter. Its scale is comparable to that of 100-to 150-km-diameter cells of low satellite brightness temperatures within the overall cyclone cloud shield; these cells have lifetimes of 4.5 to 6 hrs. These cells correspond to regions of enhanced convection, higher cloud altitude, and upwardly displaced potential temperature surfaces. The temporal and spatial distribution of meteorological variables associated with the 110-km gravity wave can be simulated by a slowly moving transient forcing at the anvil top having an amplitude of 400-600 m, a lifetime of 4.5-6 hrs, and a size comparable to the cells of low brightness temperature.

Description: An overview is presented of the tropical component of STEP. The STEP cooperative experiments are described and summaries are presented of the STEP tropical ER-2 aircraft flights. STEP tropical results on dehydration and transfer and the mechanisms of upward transfer are summarized. Illustrations show flight paths for each sortie on satellite images and on 100 hPa synoptic flow charts, as well as the timing of flights with respect to overall cloudiness in the Australian region.

Description: The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Description: The study presents a methodology developed to apply a parameterization of radiative transfer calculations to satellite analyses of cirrus clouds. Cloud heights and optical depths are derived from visible and IR window measurements taken during FIRE when cirrus clouds were present. Geostationary satellite retrievals are compared to lidar-derived cloud heights and retrievals from a polar-orbiting satellite taken at different angles to determine which theoretical models of scattering phase function and single-scattering albedo best represent actual cirrus clouds. Models using small scattering phase function and single-scattering albedo best represent actual cirrus clouds. It is concluded that interpretation of cirrus reflectance with water-droplet models leads to biased results. The cloud-height and optical depth biases can be minimized with the aid of the C20 or cirrostratus models.

Description: Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from Nimbus-7 ERB wide field-of-view instruments are compared with results from the ERBE instruments aboard the NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 satellites. Over most regions of the globe, the agreement between the two sets of OLR results is generally to within 8 W/sq m. There are larger differences at higher latitudes and regions concentrated over land and desert. Results of daytime and nighttime differences suggest that the shortwave channels may be at fault due to their different design for Nimbus-7 and NOAA-9. Some of the differences may also be related to different viewing geometry of the two satellites.

Description: Two simple techniques (Continuum Interpolated Band Ratio, CIBR, and Narrow/Wide ratio, N/W) to retrieve path precipitable water from AVIRIS high spectral resolution radiance data using the 940 nm water absorption band are compared. A sensitivity analysis was performed using the radiative transfer code LOWTRAN 7 to determine which one of these two approaches will provide a better estimate over land and water areas. The CIBR proved to be the technique less sensitive to perturbing effects, except for errors in visibility estimate. Both techniques were applied to AVIRIS radiance data acquired over Salton Sea, California. Resulting images confirmed that the use of a constant gray reflectance in the model led to a higher overestimation of the amount of water retrieved for N/W over vegetated areas. Validation was performed through comparison between an independent estimate of water vapor from concurrent Reagan sunphotometer measurements and AVIRIS estimates. Amounts retrieved using the N/W approach match more closely in situ measurements, even after adjusting model parameters for background reflectance, viewing geometry, and type of aerosol at the site.

Description: The viscous interfacial-sublayer model of Liu et al. (1979) is used to derive four bulk schemes (LKB, FG, D, and DB), with the flux-profile relationships of Lie et al., Francey and Garratt (1981), Dyer (1974), and Dyer and Bradley (1982). These schemes, with stability-dependent transfer coefficients, are tested against the eddy-correlation fluxes measured at the 50-m flight level above the western Atlantic Ocean during cold-air outbreaks. The bulk fluxes of momentum (tau), sensible heat (H), and latent heat (E) are found to increase with various von Karman constants. The dependence of transfer coefficients on wind speeds and roughness lengths is discussed. The transfer coefficients for tau and E agree excellently between LKB and FG. The ratio of the coefficent for H of LKB to that of FG, increasing with decreasing stability, is very sensitive to stability at low winds, but approaches the neutral value of 1.25 at high winds.

Description: The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

Description: A method to estimate raindrop size distribution (DSD) parameters from a combined Zm profile and path-integrated attenuation is shown, and a test result of the method using the data from an aircraft experiment is presented. The 'semi' dual-parameter (SDP) measurement is employed to estimate DSD parameters using the data obtained from an aircraft experiment conducted by Communications Research Laboratory, Tokyo, in conjunction with NASA. The validity of estimated DSD parameters is examined using measured Ka-band radar reflectivities. The estimated path-averaged N(0) is consistent with the Ka/X Ze ratio, and the use of estimated DSD shows excellent agreement between the rain rates estimated from the X-band and K-band Zes. The feasibility of estimating DSD parameters from space is confirmed.

Description: Passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were used to estimate the amount of rainfall in the June-August season for the regions of the southwest U.S. and Mexico, and the results are compared to rain-gauge observations and to IR climatologies of Maddox et al. (1992), using both the hourly IR data and IR data sampled at the time of the overpass of the SSM/I. A comparison of the microwave climatology with monthly rainfall measured by the climatological gage network over several states of western Mexico resulted in a 0.63 correlation and a large (482 mm) bias, due to sampling and the incongruity of rain gages and satellite estimates. A comparison between the IR and microwave data showed that the IR tended toward higher percentages along the coast compared to the microwave.

Description: The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

Description: A 2D time-dependent and nonhydrostatic numerical cloud model is presently used to estimate the heating, moisture, and water budgets in the convective and stratiform regions for both a tropical and a midlatitude squall line. The model encompasses a parameterized, three-class ice phase microphysical scheme and longwave radiative transfer process. It is noted that the convective region plays an important role in the generation of stratiform rainfall for both cases. While a midlevel minimum in the moisture profile for the tropical case is due to vertical eddy transport in the convective region, the contribution to the heating budget by the cloud-scale fluxes is minor; by contrast, the vertical eddy heat-flux is relatively important for the midlatitude case due to the stronger vertical velocities present in the convective cells.

Description: The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II has one channel at 940 nm related to water vapor. Two inversion procedures were developed independently in order to obtain the water vapor profile: the Chahine method by the Langley Research Center, and the Mill method by the Laboratoire d'Optique Atmospherique. Comparisons were made between these two algorithms and some results are presented at midlatitudes (about 45 deg N) and tropical latitudes (12-25 deg S). They are compared with in situ frost point hygrometer data provided by balloon experiments from the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique. At +/- 0.5 ppmv, agreement between the inversion results and the experimental results was obtained in the altitude range from 18-19 to 26-27 km. Below 18-19 km and above 26-27 km the error is larger (sometimes 1 ppmv and more).

Description: Data collected by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II are presented, showing annual variations of water vapor in the stratosphere and the upper troposphere. The altitude-time cross sections of water vapor were found to exhibit annually repeatable patterns in both hemispheres, with a yearly minimum in water vapor appearing in both hemispheres at about the same time, supporting the concept of a common source for stratospheric dry air. A linear regression analysis was applied to the three-year data set to elucidate global values and variations of water vapor ratio.

Description: The annual mean and the annual amplitude of ozone have been derived from ozone measurements from the SBUV and SBUV/2 spectrometers on board the Nimbus-7 and NOAA-11 satellites. These values differ significantly from values calculated using a two-dimensional model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics with standard chemistry. We have found that the differences between the calculated and data-derived values are considerably improved by changing the partitioning in the Cly family to create a larger reservoir of HCl and reducing ClO. This is accomplished by including a channel for the products HCl + O2 from the reaction ClO + OH in addition to the products Cl + HO2. This partitioning also improves the agreement between the calculated and measured values of ClO/HCl ratio.

Description: Errors have been analyzed for monthly-average downward and net longwave surface fluxes derived on a 5-deg equal-area grid over the globe, using a satellite technique. Meteorological data used in this technique are available from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) system flown aboard NOAA's operational sun-synchronous satellites. The data used are for February 1982 from NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 satellites. The errors in the parametrized equations were estimated by comparing their results with those from a detailed radiative transfer model. The errors in the TOVS-derived surface temperature, water vapor burden, and cloud cover were estimated by comparing these meteorological parameters with independent measurements obtained from other satellite sources. Analysis of the overall errors shows that the present technique could lead to underestimation of downward fluxes by 5 to 15 W/sq m and net fluxes by 4 to 12 W/sq m.

Description: Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Description: Fast and accurate parameterizations have been developed for the transmission functions of the CO2 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands, as well as the CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-22 bands located in the 8-12-micron region. The parameterizations are based on line-by-line calculations of transmission functions for the CO2 bands and on high spectral resolution laboratory measurements of the absorption coefficients for the CFC bands. Also developed are the parameterizations for the H2O transmission functions for the corresponding spectral bands. Compared to the high-resolution calculations, fluxes at the tropopause computed with the parameterizations are accurate to within 10 percent when overlapping of gas absorptions within a band is taken into account. For individual gas absorption, the accuracy is of order 0-2 percent. The climatic effects of these trace gases have been studied using a zonally averaged multilayer energy balance model, which includes seasonal cycles and a simplified deep ocean. With the trace gas abundances taken to follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Low Emissions 'B' scenario, the transient response of the surface temperature is simulated for the period 1900-2060.

Description: From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Description: The relation between the distribution of equivalent reflectivity, Z(sub e), measured by an airborne C-band radar and that for rain rate, R, measured concurrently by a disdrometer on the same aircraft in the eyewall and outer bands of Hurricane Anita (1977) was investigated using the probability-matching method (PMM). It was found that the pdf of R is much narrower in the outer rainbands of Hurricane Anita than in the eyewall, and that the mean rain rates are also much smaller. It is shown that the use of PMM provides more realistic relations than the conventional power-law Z-R regression relations based upon scatter-plots of disdrometer measurements, showing higher eyewall reflectivities for the same rain rates at rates in excess of 6.3 mm/h.

Description: Procedures are described for normalizing the radiometric calibration of image radiances obtained from geostationary weather satellites that contributed data to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The key step is comparison of coincident and collocated measurements made by each satellite and the concurrent AVHRR on the 'afternoon' NOAA polar-orbiting weather satellite at the same viewing geometry. The results of this comparison allow transfer of the AVHRR absolute calibration, which has been established over the whole series, to the radiometers on the geostationary satellites. Results are given for Meteosat-2, 3, and 4, for GOES-5, 6, and 7, for GMS-2, 3, and 4 and for Insat-1B. The relative stability of the calibrations of these radiance data is estimated to be within +/- 3 percent; the uncertainty of the absolute calibrations is estimated to be less than 10 percent. The remaining uncertainties are at least two times smaller than for the original radiance data.

Description: Surface areas, bulk densities, and porosities of ices formed at 85 or 200 K are measured to study the morphology of the vapor-deposited ices that have been used to simulate ice clouds in the laboratory. Surface areas are measured from the Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller (BET) analysis of absorption isotherms obtained at 72.2 K. Bulk densities and porosities are determined photogrammetrically. Results show that water ice and HNO3-H2O ice films deposited from the vapor at temperatures below 200 K exhibit large BET surface areas and are highly porous. For the ices annealed at temperatures above 200 K, external surface areas calculated from the observed particle sizes agree reasonably well with the BET areas, which indicates that the annealed ices are composed of nonporous particles and that the porosity of these ices is due to interstices among the particles.

Description: In order to investigate the role of the drop size distribution (DSD) from a dual-wavelength airborne radar and to recover profiled rain rates, a procedure is described for the purpose of estimating the DSD. The method differs from previous approaches in that it provides 2n + 1 parameters of the profiled DSD (where n is the number of range gates) and it uses a recursive procedure beginning at the range gate near the surface progressing backwards toward the storm top. The method is argued to be useful both as a diagnostic tool and as a means by which more detailed information on the vertical structure of the precipitation can be obtained.

Description: Meteorological approaches to verification of space measurements of rainfall are examined; validation of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations is expected to depend significantly on ground-based radars. Two methods of comparison are initially contemplated. TRMM rainfall data over time periods of a month for large areas (500 x 500 km) are averaged and compared with similarly averaged ground truth measurements. Both the rainfall and height distribution data from TRMM are compared with the instantaneous values observed at one or more 'ground truth' stations and from airborne radar and radiometers as available.

Description: The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Description: A 3D cloud model is used to simulate the storm structure, and the results are linked to microwave and infrared radiative transfer models for simulation of aircraft observations. Spaceborne radar data are also simulated along the aircraft flight track. The cloud and radiative model simulations are studied and compared with aircraft observations. The initial results indicate that the 3D cloud model is capable of simulating the major features of observed storm systems when given a representative atmospheric sounding to initialize the convective systems. The simulations of infrared and microwave radiances provide reasonably good comparisons with the observations.

Description: The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from ERBE wide-field-of-view (WFOV) and scanning sensor are compared with Nimbus-7 WFOV results. Monthly averaged OLR data from the ERBE WFOV instruments aboard the NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 polar orbiting satellites during the 3-year overlap period with Nimbus-7 are deconvolved using spherical harmonics. Results of a comparison of the data sets are presented on regional, zonal, and global scales in the spatial domain and on a monthly scale in the time domain.

Description: An effort is made to determine, on the basis of satellite imagery associated with a thunderstorm event: (1) the extent to which time-compositing would increase areal coverage and potential temperature and moisture profile measurements, as a function of time, and (2) the number of times that a given clear area could be sampled during a measurement sequence. This information would be of great value in more effectively using current data from the operational GOES satellites, and will assist in the planning of future operational and research geosynchronous missions.

Description: The NOAA has been preprocessing the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) IR and microwave channels to correct for cloud amount, spot size, and viewing angle. An examination is now being conducted of the 6-7 micron water vapor band; a preliminary evaluation is here presented of the regional and global features of this large data base on daily, monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. The TOVS archives allow large-scale climatological features to be established.

Description: The region of the IR spectrum that is ideally suited for detecting optically thin cirrus clouds is in the window between 10 and 13 microns. Here relatively weak absorption due to the water vapor lines and continuum is present and hence the extinction characteristic of the cloud particles is readily discernible. In order to demonstrate these properties, two IR spectra are presented, one with clear skies and one with an optically thin cirrus. As a result of the cloud particle extinction, an appreciable increase in the brightness temperature from 10 to 13 microns is observed. This decrease is found to be nearly linear in the case of the tropical thin cirrus, which is also geometrically thin. On the basis of radiative transfer simulations, it is inferred that the cloud particle size that can produce this spectral character has an effective diameter of about 12 microns, which is comparable to the wavelength of the radiation.

Description: The effect of smoke aerosol particles on the properties of low cumulus and stratocumulus clouds is studied on the basis of NOAA AVHRR images taken over the Brazilian Amazon Basin during the biomass burning season of 1987. The reflectance at a wavelength of 0.64 micron and the drop size, derived from the cloud reflectance at 3.75 microns, is studied for tens of thousands of clouds. It is shown that the presence of dense smoke can reduce the remotely sensed drop size of continental cloud drops from 15 to 9 microns. Due to both the high initial reflectance of clouds in the visible part of the spectrum and the presence of graphitic carbon, the average cloud reflectance at 0.6 micron is reduced from 0.71 to 0.68 for an increase in smoke optical thickness from 0.1 to 2.0. High concentration of aerosol particles is shown to cause a decrease in the cloud-drop size, and smoke is found to darken the bright Amazonian clouds.

Description: A global, 7-year satellite-based record of ocean surface solar irradiance (SSI) is used to assess the realism of ocean SSI simulated by the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) General Circulation Model (GCM). January and July climatologies of net SSI produced by the model are compared with corresponding satellite climatologies for the world oceans between 54 deg N and 54 deg S. This comparison of climatologies indicates areas of strengths and weaknesses in the GCM treatment of cloud-radiation interactions, the major source of model uncertainty. Realism of ocean SSI is also important for applications such as incorporating the GLA GCM into a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. The results show that the GLA GCM simulates too much SSI in the extratropics and too little in the tropics, especially in the summer hemisphere. These discrepancies reach magnitudes of 60 W/sq m and more. The discrepancies are particularly large in the July case off the western coast of North America. Positive and negative discrepancies in SSI are shown to be consistent with discrepancies in planetary albedo.

Description: Recent analyses of wind speed measurements by the Geosat altimeter showed that the radar cross section is affected by oceanographic factors, particularly by the degree of sea development, which are not directly accounted for in the geophysical model functions (GMF). In the present work, two new GMFs which account for the effects of the actual degree of sea development are proposed. Along with the radar cross section, these models use significant wave height information. One particular version is recommended for applications in oceanographic and climate studies where wind speed (or wind stress) data have to be binned (i.e., averaged over time and/or space intervals). The accuracy of this GMF (overall bias of 0.1 m/s and rms error of about 1.6 m/s) is higher than the accuracy of commonly employed GMFs, while the wave-age-related trend is reduced to a geophysically insignificant level. Finally, the wind speed histograms for the collocated data set are derived and compared with the ground truth data as well as with the histograms yielded by presently known GMFs. It is also shown that the accuracy of altimeter measurements could be increased even further if some additional information on the wave field were available from independent sources (e.g., the dominant wavelength from synthetic aperture radar images).