ALBERT

Description: The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include, What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models. It is hoped that these early results will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world.

Description: The goal of this study was to determine, through modeling, the impact of aircraft emissions on regional air quality, especially in regard to fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) as well as ozone and other pollutants. For this, we focused on Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport which is the busiest airport in the world based on passenger traffic (AIC, 2003). Hartsfield-Jackson serves the metropolitan Atlanta area where air quality does not meet national standards. Emissions from mobile and industrial sources (including several large electric power generating utilities) are the major contributors to the area's air pollution. In this study, we assessed the impact of Hartsfield-Jackson Airport on air quality around Atlanta, Georgia, and compared it to the impacts of other emission sources in the area. The assessment was built upon other, related air quality studies involving both field and modeling components. To achieve the objectives, first a detailed inventory was developed for aircraft and other emissions at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. Then, air quality simulations were performed to relate these emissions to regional air quality around Atlanta. The Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) was used as the modeling platform. The period of August 11-20 2000 was selected as the episode to be modeled in this study. Prior modeling of this episode during the Fall Line Air Quality Study (FAQS) and availability of additional PM(2.5) measurements for evaluation played a major role in this selection. Meteorological data for this episode as well as emission data for sources other than aircrafts were already available from FAQS.

Description: The project goals are: Make data analysis faster and cheaper. Increase use of NASA data by removing barriers to data access. Cope with data heterogeneity. Support code reuse and rapid application development. Support multiple applications, users. Including fire and health domains. Improve QOS. Always provide an answer. Tell user how good it is, where it come from.

Description: .We interpret observations of trace-gases from three satellite platforms to provide top-down constraints on the production of NO by lightning. The space-based observations are tropospheric NO2 columns from SCIAMACHY, tropospheric O3 columns from OMI and MLS, and upper tropospheric HNO3 from ACE-FTS. A global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) is used to identify locations and time periods in which lightning would be expected to dominate the trace gas observations. The satellite observations are sampled at those locations and time periods. All three observations exhibit a maximum in the tropical Atlantic region and a minimum in the tropical Pacific. This wave-1 pattern is driven by injection of lightning NO into the upper troposphere over the tropical continents, followed by photochemical production of NO2, HNO3, and O3 during transport. Lightning produces a broad enhancement over the tropical Atlantic and Africa of 2-6 x 10(exp 14) molecules NO2/sq cm, 4 x 10(exp 17) molecules O3/sq cm (15 Dobson Units), and 125 pptv of upper tropospheric HNO3. The lightning background is 25-50% weaker over the tropical Pacific. A global source of 6+/-2 Tg N/yr from lightning in the model best represents the satellite observations of tropospheric NO2, O3, and HNO3.

Description: Many state and local air quality agencies use the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system to determine compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). Because emission reduction scenarios are tested using CMAQ with an aim of determining the most efficient and cost effective strategies for attaining the NAAQS, it is very important that trace gas concentrations derived by CMAQ are accurate. Overestimating concentrations can literally translate into billions of dollars lost by commercial and government industries forced to comply with the standards. Costly health, environmental and socioeconomic problems can result from concentration underestimates. Unfortunately, lightning modeling for CMAQ is highly oversimplified. This leads to very poor estimates of lightning-produced nitrogen oxides "NOx" (= NO + NO2) which directly reduces the accuracy of the concentrations of important CMAQ trace gases linked to NOx concentrations such as ozone and methane. Today it is known that lightning is the most important NOx source in the upper troposphere with a global production rate estimated to vary between 2-20 Tg(N)/yr. In addition, NOx indirectly influences our climate since it controls the concentration of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere. Ozone is an important greenhouse gas and OH controls the oxidation of various greenhouse gases. We describe a robust NASA lightning model, called the Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) that combines state-of-the-art lightning measurements, empirical results from field studies, and beneficial laboratory results to arrive at a realistic representation of lightning NOx production for CMAQ. NASA satellite lightning data is used in conjunction with ground-based lightning detection systems to assure that the best representation of lightning frequency, geographic location, channel length, channel altitude, strength (i.e., channel peak current), and number of strokes per flash are accounted for. LNOM combines all of these factors in a straightforward approach that is easily implemented into CMAQ. We anticipate that future applications of LNOM will produce significant and important changes in CMAQ trace gas concentrations for various regions and times. We also anticipate that these changes will have a direct impact on decision makers responsible for NAAQS attainment.

Description: To meet the goals of extreme weather event warning, this approach couples a modeling and visualization system that integrates existing NASA technologies and improves the modeling system's parallel scalability to take advantage of petascale supercomputers. It also streamlines the data flow for fast processing and 3D visualizations, and develops visualization modules to fuse NASA satellite data.

Description: A 3-D weather radar visualization software program was developed and implemented as part of an experimental Launch Pad 39 Hail Monitor System. 3DRadPlot, a radar plotting program, is one of several software modules that form building blocks of the hail data processing and analysis system (the complete software processing system under development). The spatial and temporal mapping algorithms were originally developed through research at the University of Central Florida, funded by NASA s Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), where the goal was to merge National Weather Service (NWS) Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) volume reflectivity data with drop size distribution data acquired from a cluster of raindrop disdrometers. In this current work, we adapted these algorithms to process data from a cluster of hail disdrometers positioned around Launch Pads 39A or 39B, along with the corresponding NWS radar data. Radar data from all NWS NEXRAD sites is archived at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). That data can be readily accessed at 〈http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov /nexradin/〉. 3DRadPlot plots Level III reflectivity data at four scan elevations (this software is available at Open Channel Software, 〈http://www.openchannelfoundation.org/projects/3DRadPlot〉). By using spatial and temporal interpolation/extrapolation based on hydrometeor fall dynamics, we can merge the hail disdrometer array data coupled with local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988, Doppler (WSR-88D) radial velocity and reflectivity data into a 4-D (3-D space and time) picture of hail size distributions. Hail flux maps can then be generated and used for damage prediction and assessment over specific surfaces corresponding to structures within the disdrometer array volume. Immediately following a hail storm, specific damage areas and degree of damage can be identified for inspection crews.

Description: We present validation studies of MLS version 2.2 upper tropospheric and stratospheric ozone profiles using ozonesonde and lidar data as well as climatological data. Ozone measurements from over 60 ozonesonde stations worldwide and three lidar stations are compared with coincident MLS data. The MLS ozone stratospheric data between 150 and 3 hPa agree well with ozonesonde measurements, within 8% for the global average. MLS values at 215 hPa are biased high compared to ozonesondes by approximately 20% at middle to high latitude, although there is a lot of variability in this altitude region.

Description: Multiyear estimates of sea ice drift in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait are derived for the first time from the 89 GHz channel of the AMSR-E instrument. Uncertainties in the drift estimates, assessed with Envisat ice motion, are approximately 2-3 km/day. A persistent atmospheric trough, between the coast of Greenland and Baffin Island, drives the prevailing southward drift pattern with average daily displacements in excess of 18-20 km during winter. Over the 5-year record, the ice export ranges between 360 and 675 x 10(exp 3) km(exp 2), with an average of 530 x 10(exp 3) km(exp 2). Sea ice area inflow from the Nares Strait, Lancaster Sound and Jones Sound potentially contribute up to a third of the net area outflow while ice production at the North Water Polynya contributes the balance. Rough estimates of annual volume export give approximately 500-800 km(exp 3). Comparatively, these are approximately 70% and approximately 30% of the annual area and Strait.

Description: Vertical profiles of stratospheric HOCl calculated with a diurnal steady-state photochemical model that uses currently recommended reaction rates and photolysis cross sections underestimate observed profiles of HOCl obtained by two balloon-borne instruments, FIRS-2 (a far-infrared emission spectrometer) and MkIV (a mid-infrared, solar absorption spectrometer). Considerable uncertainty (a factor of two) persists in laboratory measurements of the rate constant (k(sub 1)) for the reaction ClO + HO2 yields HOCl + O2. Agreement between modeled and measured HOCl can be attained using a value of k(sub 1) from Stimpfle et al. (1979) that is about a factor-of-two faster than the currently recommended rate constant. Comparison of modeled and measured HOCl suggests that models using the currently recommended value for k(sub 1) may underestimate the role of the HOCl catalytic cycle for ozone depletion, important in the midlatitude lower stratosphere.