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  • Springer Nature  (101,637)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2010-2014  (112,234)
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  • 1
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    Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global Scale Forcings (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changesin heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by ourunderstanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature(SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns ofcomposite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally).
    Description: Published
    Description: 4622–4641
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; rainfall ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
    Description: Published
    Description: 997–1017
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; hurricanes ; climate change ; CLIVAR ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Climate warming during Antarctic ice sheet expansion at the Middle Miocene transition (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  EPIC3Nature Geoscience, Nature Publishing Group, 7(5), pp. 376-381, ISSN: 1752-0894
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-14
    Description: During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    A shift of thermokarst lakes from carbon sources to sinks during the Holocene epoch (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  EPIC3Nature, Nature Publishing Group, ISSN: 0028-0836
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-17
    Description: Thermokarst lakes formed across vast regions of Siberia and Alaska during the last deglaciation and are thought to be a net source of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide during the Holocene epoch1, 2, 3, 4. However, the same thermokarst lakes can also sequester carbon5, and it remains uncertain whether carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes can offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we use field observations of Siberian permafrost exposures, radiocarbon dating and spatial analyses to quantify Holocene carbon stocks and fluxes in lake sediments overlying thawed Pleistocene-aged permafrost. We find that carbon accumulation in deep thermokarst-lake sediments since the last deglaciation is about 1.6 times larger than the mass of Pleistocene-aged permafrost carbon released as greenhouse gases when the lakes first formed. Although methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming, carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial timescales. We assess thermokarst-lake carbon feedbacks to climate with an atmospheric perturbation model and find that thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5,000 years ago. High rates of Holocene carbon accumulation in 20 lake sediments (47 ± 10 grams of carbon per square metre per year; mean ± standard error) were driven by thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, by nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms. When lakes eventually drained, permafrost formation rapidly sequestered sediment carbon. Our estimate of about 160 petagrams of Holocene organic carbon in deep lake basins of Siberia and Alaska increases the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by over 50 per cent (ref. 6). The carbon in perennially frozen drained lake sediments may become vulnerable to mineralization as permafrost disappears7, 8, 9, potentially negating the climate stabilization provided by thermokarst lakes during the late Holocene.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
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    Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  EPIC3Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 512(7514), pp. 290-294, ISSN: 0028-0836
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-04
    Description: During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events1. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record2, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike3. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model16, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence1, 3, 17. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    An Energy Compartment Model for Propagation, Nonlinear Interaction, and Dissipation of Internal Gravity Waves (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 44(8), pp. 2093-2106, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Description: The recently proposed Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX) model, describing the propagation and dissipation of internal gravity waves in the ocean, is extended. Compartments describing the energy contained in the internal tides and the near-inertial waves at low, vertical wavenumber are added to a compartment of the wave continuum at higher wavenumbers. Conservation equations for each compartment are derived based on integrated versions of the radiative transfer equation of weakly interacting waves. The compartments interact with each other by the scattering of tidal energy to the wave continuum by triad wave– wave interactions, which are strongly enhanced equatorward of 288 due to parametric subharmonic instability of the tide and by scattering to the continuum of both tidal and near-inertial wave energy over rough topography and at continental margins. Global numerical simulations of the resulting model using observed stratification, forcing functions, and bottom topography yield good agreement with available observations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 27(10), pp. 3784-3801, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-05-15
    Description: Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
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    Pan genome of the phytoplankton Emiliania underpins its global distribution (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  EPIC3Nature, Nature Publishing Group, ISSN: 0028-0836
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-03-08
    Description: Coccolithophores have influenced the global climate for over 200 million years1. These marine phytoplankton can account for 20 per cent of total carbon fixation in some systems2. They form blooms that can occupy hundreds of thousands of square kilometres and are distinguished by their elegantly sculpted calcium carbonate exoskeletons (coccoliths), rendering themvisible fromspace3.Although coccolithophores export carbon in the form of organic matter and calcite to the sea floor, they also release CO2 in the calcification process. Hence, they have a complex influence on the carbon cycle, driving either CO2 production or uptake, sequestration and export to the deep ocean4. Here we report the first haptophyte reference genome, from the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi strain CCMP1516, and sequences from 13 additional isolates. Our analyses reveal a pan genome (core genes plus genes distributed variably between strains) probably supported by an atypical complement of repetitive sequence in the genome. Comparisons across strains demonstrate thatE. huxleyi, which has long been considered a single species, harbours extensive genome variability reflected in different metabolic repertoires. Genome variability within this species complex seems to underpin its capacity both to thrive in habitats ranging from the equator to the subarctic and to form large-scale episodic blooms under a wide variety of environmental conditions.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 9
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    The INGV-CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: improved ocean initial conditions (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: The development of the INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)-CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial conditions estimation includes a Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991-2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e.: without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), we showed that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific SSTs in our system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the El Ni˜no 1997-1998, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. Our results indicate a better prediction of global scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably due to the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, in both tropics and extra tropics, we show significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above normal and below normal temperature anomalies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2930-2952
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: ocean modelling ; global climate models ; seasonal forecast ; coupled models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Limited overlap between the seismic gap and coseismic slip of the great 2010 Chile earthquake (2011)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The MW 8.8 mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami that occurred on February 27, 2010, offshore Maule region, Chile, was not unexpected. A clearly identified seismic gap existed in an area where tectonic loading has been accumulating since the great 1835 earthquake experienced and described by Darwin during the voyage of the Beagle. Here we jointly invert tsunami and geodetic data (InSAR, GPS, land-level changes), to derive a robust model for the co-seismic slip distribution and induced co-seismic stress changes, and compare them to past earthquakes and the pre-seismic locking distribution. We aim to assess if the Maule earthquake has filled the Darwin gap, decreasing the probability of a future shock . We find that the main slip patch is located to the north of the gap, overlapping the rupture zone of the MW 8.0 1928 earthquake, and that a secondary concentration of slip occurred to the south; the Darwin gap was only partially filled and a zone of high pre-seismic locking remains unbroken. This observation is not consistent with the assumption that distributions of seismic rupture might be correlated with pre-seismic locking, potentially allowing the anticipation of slip distributions in seismic gaps. Moreover, increased stress on this unbroken patch might have increased the probability of another major to great earthquake there in the near future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 173-177
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Source process ; Chile ; Tsunami ; Joint Inversion ; Seismic Gap ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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