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  • Articles  (1,283)
  • 2010-2014  (1,283)
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  • Articles  (1,283)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: A blended model for atmospheric flow simulations is introduced that enables seamless transition from fully compressible to pseudo-incompressible dynamics. The model equations are written in nonperturbation form and integrated using a well-balanced second-order finite-volume discretization. The semi-implicit scheme combines an explicit predictor for advection with elliptic corrections for the pressure field. Compressibility is implemented in the elliptic equations through a diagonal term. The compressible/pseudo-incompressible transition is realized by suitably weighting the term and provides a mechanism for removing unwanted acoustic imbalances in compressible runs. As the gradient of the pressure is used instead of the Exner pressure in the momentum equation, the influence of perturbation pressure on buoyancy must be included to ensure thermodynamic consistency. With this effect included, the thermodynamically consistent model is equivalent to Durran’s original pseudo-incompressible model, which uses the Exner pressure. Numerical experiments demonstrate quadratic convergence and competitive solution quality for several benchmarks. With the inclusion of an additional buoyancy term required for thermodynamic consistency, the “p–ρ formulation” of the pseudo-incompressible model closely reproduces the compressible results. The proposed unified approach offers a framework for models that are largely free of the biases that can arise when different discretizations are used. With data assimilation applications in mind, the seamless compressible/pseudo-incompressible transition mechanism is also shown to enable the flattening of acoustic imbalances in initial data for which balanced pressure distributions are unknown.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: A new method is presented for cloud detection and the retrieval of three-dimensional cloud fraction from satellite infrared radiances. This method, called multivariate minimum residual (MMR), is inspired by the minimum residual technique by Eyre and Menzel and is especially suitable for exploiting the large number of channels from hyperspectral infrared sounders. Its accuracy is studied in a theoretical framework where the observations and the numerical model are supposed perfect. Of particular interest is the number of independent information that can be found on the cloud according to the number of channels used. The technical implementation of the method is also briefly discussed. The MMR scheme is validated with the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument using simulated observations. This new method is compared with the cloud-detection scheme from McNally and Watts that is operational at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and considered to be the state of the art in cloud detection for hyperspectral infrared sounders.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: Steep orography can cause noisy solutions and instability in models of the atmosphere. A new technique for modeling flow over orography is introduced that guarantees curl-free gradients on arbitrary grids, implying that the pressure gradient term is not a spurious source of vorticity. This mimetic property leads to better hydrostatic balance and better energy conservation on test cases using terrain-following grids. Curl-free gradients are achieved by using the covariant components of velocity over orography rather than the usual horizontal and vertical components. In addition, gravity and acoustic waves are treated implicitly without the need for mean and perturbation variables or a hydrostatic reference profile. This enables a straightforward description of the implicit treatment of gravity waves. Results are presented of a resting atmosphere over orography and the curl-free pressure gradient formulation is advantageous. Results of gravity waves over orography are insensitive to the placement of terrain-following layers. The model with implicit gravity waves is stable in strongly stratified conditions, with NΔt up to at least 10 (where N is the Brunt–Väisälä frequency). A warm bubble rising over orography is simulated and the curl-free pressure gradient formulation gives much more accurate results for this test case than a model without this mimetic property.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: The authors evaluated the effects of assimilating three-dimensional Doppler wind lidar (DWL) data on the forecast of the heavy rainfall event of 5 July 2010 in Japan, produced by an isolated mesoscale convective system (MCS) at a meso-gamma scale in a system consisting of only warm rain clouds. Several impact experiments using the nonhydrostatic four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (NHM-4DVAR) and the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model with a 2-km horizontal grid spacing were conducted in which 1) no observations were assimilated (NODA), 2) radar reflectivity and radial velocity determined by Doppler radar and precipitable water vapor determined by GPS satellite observations were assimilated (CTL), and 3) radial velocity determined by DWL were added to the CTL experiment (LDR) and five data denial and two observational error sensitivity experiments. Although both NODA and CTL simulated an MCS, only LDR captured the intensity, location, and horizontal scale of the observed MCS. Assimilating DWL data improved the wind direction and speed of low-level airflows, thus improving the accuracy of the simulated water vapor flux. The examination of the impacts of specific assimilations and assigned observation errors showed that assimilation of all data types is important for forecasting intense MCSs. The investigation of the MCS structure showed that large amounts of water vapor were supplied to the rainfall event by southerly flow. A midlevel inversion layer led to the production of exclusively liquid water particles in the MCS, and in combination with the humid airflow into the MCS, this inversion layer may be another important factor in its development.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: Output from idealized numerical simulations is used to investigate the storm-scale processes responsible for squall-line evolution following a merger with an isolated supercell. A simulation including a squall line–supercell merger is compared to one using the same initial squall line and background environment without the merger. These simulations reveal that while bow echo formation is favored by the strongly sheared background environment, the merger produces a more compact bowing structure owing to a locally enhanced rear-inflow jet. The merger also represents a favored location for severe weather production relative to other portions of the squall line, with surface winds, vertical vorticity, and rainfall all being maximized in the vicinity of the merger. An analysis of storm-scale processes reveals that the premerger squall line weakens as it encounters outflow from the preline supercell, and the supercell becomes the leading edge of the merged system. Subsequent localized strengthening of the cold pool and rear-inflow jet produce a compact, intense bow echo local to the merger, with a descending rear-inflow jet creating a broad swath of damaging surface winds. These features, common to severe bow echoes, are shown to be a direct result of the merger in the present simulations, and are diminished or absent in the no-merger simulation. Sensitivity tests reveal that mergers in a weaker vertical wind shear environment do not produce an enhanced bow echo structure, and only produce a localized region of marginally enhanced surface winds. Additional tests demonstrate that the details of postmerger evolution vary with merger location along the line.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: In this paper, large-scale aspects for the onset of the extreme cold European weather event in January–February 2012 are investigated. It is shown that the outbreak of this extreme cold weather event may be attributed to the transition from a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) event to a long-lasting blocking event over the eastern Atlantic and western Europe (hereafter ENAO−). A persistent decline of the surface air temperature (SAT) is seen over all of Europe during the long-lived ENAO− event, while the main region of enhanced precipitation is located over southern Europe and part of central Europe, in association with the presence of a persistent double storm track: one over the Norwegian and Barents Seas and the other over southern Europe. The NAO+ to NAO− transition events are divided into NAO+ to ENAO− and NAO+ to WNAO− transition events [ENAO− (WNAO−) events correspond to eastward- (westward-) displaced NAO− events whose positive center is defined to be located to the east (west) of 10°W], and a statistical analysis of the NAO+ to ENAO− transition events during 1978–2012 is performed. It is found that there has been a marked increase in the frequency of the NAO+ to ENAO− transition events during the period 2005–12. Composites of SAT anomalies indicate that the marked decline of the SAT observed over much of Europe is primarily associated with NAO+ to ENAO− transition events. Thus, NAO+ to ENAO− transition events may be more favorable for the extreme cold events over Europe observed in recent winters than other types of NAO− events.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: Characteristics of low pressure systems (LPSs) responsible for submonthly-scale (7–25 days) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in rainfall over Bangladesh and their impact on the amplitude of active peaks are investigated for 29 summer monsoon seasons. Extreme and moderate active peaks are obtained based on the amplitude of 7–25-day-filtered rainfall series. By detecting the LPSs that formed over the Indian monsoon region, it was found that about 59% (62%) of extreme (moderate) active peaks of rainfall are related to LPSs. These LPSs have horizontal scale of about 600 km and vertical scale of about 9 km. For the extreme active peak, the locations of the LPS centers are clustered significantly over and around Bangladesh, accompanied by the maximum convergence in the southeast sector of the LPSs. After their formation, they tend to remain almost stationary over and around Bangladesh. In contrast, for the moderate active peak, the LPS centers are located over the Ganges Plain around 85°E, and the maximum convergence of the LPSs occurs around their centers. This difference in the convergence fields is closely associated with the geographical features to the north and east of Bangladesh and the horizontal scale of the LPSs. These features suggest that the amplitude of the active peaks in the submonthly-scale ISO is modulated by small differences in the locations of the LPS centers. These findings suggest that improved predictions of both genesis location and the tracks of the LPSs are crucial to forecasting seasonal rainfall over Bangladesh.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: This study considers the data assimilation problem in coupled systems, which consists of two components (subsystems) interacting with each other through certain coupling terms. A straightforward way to tackle the assimilation problem in such systems is to concatenate the states of the subsystems into one augmented state vector, so that a standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) can be directly applied. This work presents a divided state-space estimation strategy, in which data assimilation is carried out with respect to each individual subsystem, involving quantities from the subsystem itself and correlated quantities from other coupled subsystems. On top of the divided state-space estimation strategy, the authors also consider the possibility of running the subsystems separately. Combining these two ideas, a few variants of the EnKF are derived. The introduction of these variants is mainly inspired by the current status and challenges in coupled data assimilation problems and thus might be of interest from a practical point of view. Numerical experiments with a multiscale Lorenz 96 model are conducted to evaluate the performance of these variants against that of the conventional EnKF. In addition, specific for coupled data assimilation problems, two prototypes of extensions of the presented methods are also developed in order to achieve a trade-off between efficiency and accuracy.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Description: This study presents an integrated analysis of dual-Doppler, cloud photogrammetry, surface mobile mesonet, and sounding data to examine wall cloud formation in two supercells observed during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment II (VORTEX2). One of the wall clouds contained significant rotation and spawned an (enhanced Fujita) EF2 tornado, while the other was clearly displaced horizontally from the mesocyclone and exhibited little rotation at the time of data collection. Backward parcel trajectories show that the majority of the air entering the wall cloud base originates in the forward-flank region. A small fraction of the parcels enter the wall cloud base from the inflow. Some rear-flank downdraft parcels descend into the strongly rotating wall cloud. For both wall clouds, much of the observed wall cloud lowering is attributed to evaporatively cooled parcels in the forward-flank region being ingested into the low-level updraft. Additional wall cloud-base lowering is observed near the circulation center of the strongly rotating wall cloud. This localized lowering is created by the pressure deficit and associated cooling. The observational results presented herein are compared to long-standing wall cloud formation conceptual models published in the refereed literature.
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