ALBERT

Description: Vulcano is one of the 7 volcanic islands and 6 seamounts forming the Aeolian volcanic district (Italy). Vulcano has a long eruptive record, and its last eruption (1888–90 AD) originated the definition of the Vulcanian eruptive style. Like most volcanic islands, Vulcano generates many potentially interconnected hazards, determining a potentially high risk. Here, we review the state of knowledge on its geology, eruptive activity, historical accounts, structural setting, geophysical and geochemical surveillance, and available hazard assessment, in order to have an updated picture of the state knowledge on volcanic hazard. We follow a prototypal reviewing scheme, based on three standardized steps: i) review of the volcanic system; ii) review of available eruptive and noneruptive hazard quantifications; iii) development of a conceptual interpretative model. We find that, while a rather vast literature is dedicated to the volcanic system of Vulcano and the reconstruction of past events, few quantitative hazard assessments exist. In addition, the range of natural variability considered for each hazard is potentially underestimated (e.g. limited range of considered eruption magnitude and style and of vent position), as it is the potential effect of multi-hazard impact. The developed conceptual model for the feeding system provides a synthetic picture of the present knowledge about the system, as emerged from the review. In addition, it allows for the identification of potential paths-to-eruption and provides a first order link among the main hazards. This review provides an up-to-date snapshot of existing knowledge on volcanic hazard at Vulcano on which to build future hazard quantifications as well as to support present and future decision making.

Description: Published

Description: 103186

Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Dikes and sills are the moving building blocks of the plumbing system of volcanoes and play a fundamental role in the accretionary processes of the crust. They nucleate, propagate, halt, resume propagation, and sometimes change trajectory with drastic implications for the outcome of eruptions (Sigmundsson et al., 2010). Their dynamics is still poorly understood, in particular when different external influencing factors are interacting. Here we apply a boundary element model to study dike and sill formation, propagation and arrest in different scenarios. We model dikes as finite batches of compressible fluid magma, propagating quasi-statically in an elastic medium, and calculate their trajectories by maximising the energy release of the magma-rock system. We consider dike propagation in presence of density layering, of density plus rigidity layering, of a weakly welded interface between layers, under the action of an external stress field (of tectonic or topographic origin). Our simulations predict sill formation in several situations: i) when a horizontal weak interface is met by a propagating dike; ii) when a sufficiently high compressive tectonic environment is experienced by the ascending dike and iii) in case a dike, starting below a volcanic edifice, propagates away from the topographic load with a low dip angle. We find that dikes halt and stack when they become negatively buoyant and when they propagate with low overpressure at their upper tip toward a topographic load. Neutral buoyancy by itself cannot induce dikes to turn into sills, as previously suggested.

Description: Published

Description: 39-50

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Surface tension plays an important role in the nucleation of H2O gas bubbles in magmatic melts and in the time-dependent rheology of bubble-bearing magmas. Despite several experimental studies, a physics based model of the surface tension of magmatic melts in contact with H2O is lacking. This paper employs gradient theory to develop a thermodynamical model of equilibrium surface tension of silicate melts in contact with H2O gas at low to moderate pressures. In the last decades, this approach has been successfully applied in studies of industrial mixtures but never to magmatic systems. We calibrate and verify the model against literature experimental data, obtained by the pendant drop method, and by inverting bubble nucleation experiments using the Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT). Our model reproduces the systematic decrease in surface tension with increased H2O pressure observed in the experiments. On the other hand, the effect of temperature is confirmed by the experiments only at high pressure. At atmospheric pressure, the model shows a decrease of surface tension with temperature. This is in contrast with a number of experimental observations and could be related to microstructural effects that cannot be reproduced by our model. Finally, our analysis indicates that the surface tension measured inverting the CNT may be lower than the value measured by the pendant drop method, most likely because of changes in surface tension controlled by the supersaturation.

Description: Published

Description: 113-127

Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This paper reports the analysis of soil 222Rn data recorded over 7-years in the volcanic caldera of Campi Flegrei (Naples-Italy). The relationship between Radon activity concentration and several geophysical, geochemical and meteorological parameters, influencing the gas emissions, is estimated by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. The analysis goals are: the estimation (replication) of the Radon time series from influencing parameters, the forecasting of an unknown part of it, and the search for anomalies. Results prove: (i) the effectiveness of the ANN method; (ii) Radon follow the periods of agitation of the caldera, demonstrated by the comparison with previous works using different methods.

Description: Published

Description: 109239

Description: 6IT. Osservatori non satellitari

Description: JCR Journal

Description: In their comments Bonini et al. argue that our seismotectonic interpretation of the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence does not agree with observations, and follow three lines of arguments to support their statement. These concern the structural interpretation of seismic reflection profiles, the relationship between seismogenic sources and seismicity patterns, and the fit of inferred fault geometry to InSAR observations. These lines of arguments are mostly repeating what has been previously presented by the same authors, and none of them, as discussed in detail in our reply, presents a strong case against our structural interpretation, that, we are convinced, does not conflict with the available data. The two adjacent rupture surfaces outlined by accurately relocated aftershocks are an indication of the presence of two different active fault planes. Interpretation of seismic profiles supports seismological observation and indicates the occurrence of relevant along-strike changes in structural style. These pieces of information have been integrated to build a new seismotectonic interpretation for the area of the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence. Analysis of geodetic data from the area of the Emilia earthquakes has produced very different models of the fault planes; unlike what has been stated by Bonini et al., who see a difficult fit to InSAR data for the fault planes we have identified, the most recent results are consistent with our interpretation that see a steep fault in the upper 8–10 km under the Mirandola anticline. We point out that the geological structures in the subsurface of the Ferrara Arc do change along strike, and the attempt of Bonini et al. to explain both the May 20 and May 29 sequences using a single cross section is not appropriate.

Description: Published

Description: 157-162

Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Seismic microzonation represents a basic tool for prevention activity planning and land management. An extensive and detailed microzonation study was performed with reference to the territory of the Municipality of Cavezzo, damaged during the seismic sequence hitting Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, in 2012. In this paper, we discuss the work carried out to characterize the spatial variability of ground motion amplification due to local soil conditions in the municipality area. An inter- and multi-disciplinary approach is presented, involving geotechnical engineers, geophysicists, geologists and seismologists from different institutions, to thoroughly characterize the territory using complementary techniques with different level of resolution and confidence. A considerable amount of geomorphological, geological, hydrogeological, seismological, geotechnical and geophysical investigations was collected and processed for the purpose. A GIS-based (Geographic Information System) platform was initially setup to manage the gathered data, which now includes the results of about 1000 geotechnical and geophysical tests. Such an extended dataset was then used as a primary constraint for the creation of a comprehensive pseudo-3D geotechnical and seismo-stratigraphic model of the territory, consisting of a dense grid of one-dimensional vertical profiles to depict the variability of the soil properties over the area. The model was finally used as input for linear-equivalent ground response analysis. For the calculation of the amplification factors, special emphasis was given to the treatment and propagation of the uncertainties of the model parameters, whose different realizations have been accounted through a logic tree approach.

Description: Published

Description: 105722

Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The largest earthquake in the Zagros Mountains struck the city of Azgeleh on the Iran–Iraq border on 12 November 2017. This Mw 7.3 earthquake was followed by an intense seismic sequence. Implementing the double-difference earthquake location technique, we relocate 1069 events recorded by our local seismic network, deployed after the mainshock. The spatial distribution of the epicenters indicates linear alignments of the events nucleated along at least four notable clusters. The clusters are characterized by at least one significant earthquake, such as the Tazehabad earthquake of 25 August 2018 (Mw 5.9) along a dense, east–west trending cluster and the Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake of 25 November 2018 (Mw 6.3) along the cluster with a northeast–southwest trend. We use two-pass differential SAR interferometry (DInSAR) and Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) methods to study the coseismic permanent displacements of the Azgeleh, Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab events as well as the one-year postseismic deformation field of the 2017–2018 seismic sequence, respectively. We use non-linear and linear optimization algorithms to derive the source geometry and the slip distribution along the fault planes. The inversion is conducted by introducing also seismological constraints, leading to the definition of a listric geometry for the Azgeleh mainshock rupture that accommodates the slip area at depth of 10–16 km along a sub-horizontal plane (dipping ~3°) and a low-angle (~16°) ramp. The thrust and dextral movements along this NNW-striking (~345°) fault have triggered a tear fault responsible for the Tazehabad event ruptured an east–west trending (~267°), north-dipping (~78°) sinistral shear fault. We present the dextral slip distribution of the Sarpol-e Zahab event along a NE-striking (~34°) fault, as a synthetic Riedel structure for the southern segment of the Khanaqin fault, dipping 63° to the southeast. We find the postseismic deformation field associated with the seismic sequence is not confined only to the mainshock source (the Azgeleh fault), but also develops along the Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab faults. We additionally propose afterslip along a duplex, flat-ramp-flat structure down-dip and up-dip of the Azgeleh coseismic slip area. The up-dip afterslip develops onto the shallow detachment (~3°) at depth of ~8 km and the down-dip afterslip propagate onto the mid-crustal décollement level within the Pan-African basement. The Azgeleh, Tazehabad, Sarpol-e Zahab and Khanaqin faults mark the Lurestan Arc–Kirkuk Embayment sharp margin in the Northwest Zagros and play a key role in the lateral escape of the Lurestan Salient and vertical strain partitioning in the Zagros front.

Description: Published

Description: 112224

Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Reducing the impact of volcanic eruptions on society is a major challenge of volcanology. Although science is one basic component of risk reduction, the achievement of this goal requires competencies that go beyond natural sciences. Nowadays, the importance of non-scientific factors in reducing volcanic risks is often and dangerously overlooked, possibly leading to decision making that cannot be rationally justified. In this paper we explore the basic components of an ideal decision-making process, identifying the roles and responsibilities of the different partners/tasks that are involved. In particular, we advocate the use of the hazard/risk separation principle, which can help discern unambiguously the role of volcanology (and more in general of science) in the whole risk-reduction process. Although this distinction may be of low relevance in some real cases—for example, when the costs of mitigation actions are low and the likelihood of eruption is high—it becomes of paramount importance when dealing with high uncertainty on the eruption onset or size and expensive mitigation actions, such as the evacuation of a large city. Volcanologists can play different roles in the decision-making process, but they have to be aware that this demands competencies that go beyond being a good volcano scientist. The final intent of this paper is to encourage constructive cooperation between volcanologists and public-policy makers keeping separated their own tasks as defined by their roles and their competences, with the intent of establishing fully transparent decision-making protocols well before volcanic crises. These protocols can be very helpful to audit the decision-making process at any time, and they may be an excellent communication tool for the interested stakeholders, including society.

Description: Published

Description: 545-564

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio