ALBERT

Notizen: The purpose of this paper is to develop methods for the measurement of real capital input. These methods are based on perpetual inventory estimates of capital stock and corresponding estimates of capital service prices. Stocks and service prices are adjusted for relative utilization of capital. The resulting estimates represent a separation of income from capital into price and quantity components. Estimates of capital input in current and constant prices are constructed for corporate business, non-corporate business, and households and non-profit institutions in the United States for the period 1929–1967. These estimates are prepared in a form suitable for integration into the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.

Notizen: This paper attempts to measure the rate of change in the size distribution of wages over time in a rigorous, analytic way, and to relate that change to the business cycle. The basic problem for which this paper provides a solution is to relate changes in a size distribution to levels of and changes in single-dimensioned variables (unemployment, Gross National Product, and the consumers price index). Let F stand for the cumulative relative size distribution of wages, a function of wages. F takes on values zero through one. Let F̄ be a given value of F, e.g., F̄= 0.25. The proposed solution to the basic problem is to measure the rate of change in consecutive F's at F̄. The composite of such measurements at F̄ over time forms a vector, the length of which depends upon the number of time periods observed. The number of vectors thus derived depends upon the number of values of F̄ selected. The various vectors are then related to the general economic conditions and the respective values of F̄. The general economic conditions have a differential effect on the various vectors; e.g., those wage earners with relatively low wages are affected differently by a given turn of the business cycle than are those with high wages.The paper includes several supplementary investigations: (a) estimating each of the annual cumulative relative size distributions of wages for a specific analytic function, (b) relating analytically the size distribution construct to the Lorenz curve concept and the Gini coefficient, (c) predicting and simulating size distributions for various economic conditions, (d) formulating tax trade-offs, and (e) suggesting further uses and extensions.

Notizen: This paper reports on the results of the bilateral study of the comparison of levels of labor productivity in industry between Czechoslovakia and France in 28 branches of industry. Because of the importance of common studies of the questions of productivity of labor and its international comparison, the Economic Commission for Europe of the U.N. decided several years ago to introduce a concrete programme of work in this sphere. This study was made jointly by Czechoslovakia and France. The present paper reports on the first stage of the study, giving results based on physical unit methods. The second stage of the work includes comparisons for branches of industry not covered in this paper, on the basis of value indicator methods; detailed results will be published in respective U.N. series to the end of 1969 (Series Conf. Eur. Stats.).

Notizen: This paper presents the characteristics of the National Accounting System of Hungary and outlines its development in the last decades and the insufficiencies still existing. Hungary has joined with great interest in the work performed within the frame of the United Nations Statistical Commission concerning the development of the Systems of National Accounts, being interested in applying—as far as possible—the results of the revision of the SNA and MPS in its national practice. The paper first presents a conceptual matrix containing all the major items in the MPS system in order to explain the contents of the items and the interdependencies among them. In this connection a brief account is given of the major differences between the SNA and MPS. The following part of the paper presents the National Accounting System introduced in Hungary in 1968. It is put also within the framework of a matrix, which supplies the items of both the SNA and MPS by means of simple aggregation as well as satisfying the national requirements, so that it is possible to compare the structure and development of the Hungarian economy with those of any other countries. The major differences between the Hungarian system and the current MPS and the revised SNA are then presented.

Notizen: Book reviewed in this article:BRAWRS, W. K.—Input-Output Analyse en Internationale Economische Integratie, Preface by W. Leontief and with English Summary (Input-Output Analysis and International Economic Integration).

Notizen: Estimates of gross domestic product have been produced by various writers or agencies for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and for Wales there are estimates of expenditure also; but only a very tentative attempt has hitherto been made at estimates for the English regions, mainly because the data present difficulties. In the present investigation, in which the estimates in the Bluebook on National Income and Expenditure are partitioned between regions, item by item, a production method was first explored, but this was replaced by use of Inland Revenue data on employment and self-employment income, and production and miscellaneous sources on profits etc. Estimates of expenditure raise particular difficulties in regard to private capital formation and, for different reasons, some parts of public current expenditure.The estimates have been used to throw light on interregional variations in income produced per head and earnings per head, and their relation to activity rates and industrial structure. The flows of property income, and of public transfers of purchasing-power and benefits between regions are also explored, along with regional current balances and evidence bearing on differences in pressure of demand. Finally, the scope for the development of regional social accounting in the United Kingdom is discussed.

Notizen: Regional information designs are tools for decision makers at subnational levels; their principal purpose is to improve the dialogue between the decision maker and the analyst as a means of improving the quality of policy decisions. This paper first examines key characteristics of regional accounts and regional information systems of relevance primarily at the state or province level. Then the nature and scope of regional decisions are reviewed with a view of delineating the problems encountered in developing systematic regional information to help make those decisions. Both policy and program decisions are considered in terms of scanning the horizon for potential opportunities and problems and of identifying preferred solutions to the problems. Finally, one regional information design is sketched out which classifies in an orderly fashion the environmental and program information useful in regional decision making.

Notizen: This paper treats three subjects:(1) In Sections II and III there is given a general analysis of revisions in national income data, namely the sources of revisions are enumerated and the conclusions that might be drawn are discussed in some detail.(2) Section IV gives a description of the history of revisions in national income estimates for the FRG (Federal Republic of Germany) for the period 1949–1965. The general revisions are classified according to their causes.(3) Sections V to VII give a statistical analysis of the revisions described in Section IV. Revisions in the level and in the linear annual change are characterized by their mean and their mean absolute deviation. Theil's coefficient of inequality is computed and on the basis of its decomposition a kind of analysis of variance is carried out.

Notizen: This paper is concerned with an examination of growth trends of the Indian economy between 1860 and 1960. This examination commences with the numerous studies bearing on the more recent part of this period, from about 1900 to 1960. These studies are shown to vary greatly in coverage and comprehensiveness, and their differences and individual shortcomings are assessed. Nevertheless, these studies conclude, without exception, that the Indian economy remained virtually stationary in this period, especially in terms of negligible growth in per capita real income. In contrast to periods since 1900, the study of economic growth during the earlier period has suffered academic neglect. There are only two major studies which make an attempt to examine economic trends in this period. Both these studies are found wanting with respect to concepts and procedures. The period from 1860 to 1913 presents serious problems in any study since there is a paucity of statistics which are at all reliable and useful. The most promising approach for overcoming this deficiency is to develop better sectoral statistics rather than to rely on aggregative data even when available. In order to gain a better understanding of the growth trends of the Indian economy over this period, the author constructed indices of major economic activities. These indices demonstrate that relatively high rate of economic growth prevailed in India before 1890. Subsequent developments in the Indian economy seem to consist of minor changes in the magnitudes of economic variables rather than fundamental structural changes. Thus, the Indian economy is shown to have enjoyed relatively high rates of growth only in the initial three decades of the hundred-year period, 1860–1960.

Notizen: This paper reviews some of the ideas that have been expressed regarding the development of national financial accounts. It concludes that a consensus is emerging that a set of sector financing statements and balance sheets, based on a monetary survey and incorporating liquidity criteria, can contribute to the understanding of the operation of an economy.

Notizen: This paper is in part directed towards a partial examination of Canadian concepts and methods used in the deflation of constant price estimates of gross domestic product from both an expenditure and industry-of-origin point of view, and in part toward certain problems arising in the development of a conceptually balancing set of accounts in real terms. It also provides reference material to allow the reader to pursue the detailed methodology and data underlying the Canadian constant price accounts.

Notizen: The increased role of monetary and other financial variables has required the introduction of a quantitative framework for monetary policy planning. This has been found in a planning procedure based on flow-of-funds accounts. The very comprehensive structure of these accounts is relied upon to provide to policy makers with quantitative indications as to policy goals and measures for their implementation, and at the same time, to ensure a consistent incorporation of monetary planning in general economic planning.There are annual and monthly plans. Annual planning involves two stages. The first is projection of flow-of-funds accounts on the basis of appropriate relationships, historical trends, institutional changes, economic policy targets, etc. The final result of this stage of planning is a projection of the Monetary Sector transactions as residuals, including changes in money supply and in short-term credits as key projections. The second is decomposition of the Monetary Sector account into the Central Bank Sector and the Other Banks Sector, which makes possible a projection of measures for the implementation of projected changes in short-term credits and money supply.Monthly planning has two objects: first, to check annual projections and, if necessary, to adjust them to actual developments; and second, to introduce seasonal components. Seasonal adjustment is made only for the Monetary Sector, its two subsectors, and credit policy measures. Monthly projections are made every month for three months in advance.

Notizen: This paper describes the process of development of the Fifth French Plan, and the role of the national income accounts in this process. Part I discusses methodological considerations relating to medium-term projections. Part II outlines the methods actually used in projecting growth outlines in the Fifth Plan, and discusses the considerations that proved critical. Part III discusses the applications of the projections to the planning apparatus.

Notizen: The present system of national accounting (revised SNA and existing national systems) is a good framework for physical projections of goods and services produced by enterprises. It is less well suited to planning in value terms, because data on income are poor and the system is badly adapted to analysis at the level of decision-making centers of the relationships of production, prices, income, and investment; the picture which it gives of the non-market economy is inadequate; and it yields a static view of successive states of the economy, the last accented by the scarcity of structural information.The usefulness of the accounts for the formation of economic policy varies greatly according to the problems considered. Important for general aspects of economic policy in the relatively short term, they are limited in terms of fine decisions on public intervention in the market economy, and for the relatively detailed study of economic policy in the public sector itself. These shortcomings, although in part remediable, raise questions concerning the scope, object, flexibility, and spacial and temporal coverage of national accounting. Finally, the newly emerging needs of planning, especially those arising from the extension of the dialogue between social groups, the attempts at planning in value terms, and the increasing interest in the non-market economy, suggest a need for some deconsolidation of the system.To answer these demands, a more flexible system is needed. Such a system might comprise two stages. One, a statistical framework and presentation of data, would remain close to business and public accounting. The other, a more abstract and elaborate framework for macro-economic analysis, would correspond in large part to the present system. This system would include, around the central nucleus, a number of satellite accounts, consistent with the nucleus but articulated with it by very flexible and diverse rules. It could be extended to new fields where quantification without valuation is possible.

Notizen: This paper discusses the problems that arise in the regional allocation of public sector accounts. These problems arise mainly in connection with the regional allocation of government expenditures on a governing rather than a procurement basis, and in the derivation of a meaningful surplus or deficit. The latter in turn requires an examination of the real geographic incidence of government revenues—to avoid, for instance, the assignment of the whole tobacco tax to Virginia and North Carolina. The use of a procurement basis for government product and the real geographic distribution of direct tax incidence for government revenue would produce a more complete and meaningful regional surplus or deficit measure, and gross regional products will not be as subject to spurious inter-regional variation.

Notizen: The problem of national accounting “at constant prices” is in fact a problem of comparability of time series, as changes in the price structure preclude any direct comparison of economic flows. If such accounts are established they will make it possible directly to compare the same flow at two different times in the economy as a whole, and this without leaving the influence of other flows out of account. This makes it possible both to synthesize and to undertake analytical comparisons. The accounts could then be used for the study of time series, for projections or for structural studies (e.g. the mechanisms underlying the changing pattern of income distrubution).The first part of this report sets out to study the main problems of compiling accounts at constant prices and to examine what conventions should be adopted.The second part of the report considers how productivity gains can be explicitly shown in the national accounts. The proposed study plan restores the symmetry between price and productivity. As in the accounts at constant prices, gap variables are introduced to measure productivity gains. These variables can be interpreted in terms of surplus; the concept of surplus used here, however, is not the one adopted for the accounts in constant prices, but its dual. Setting up an accounting system “at constant productivity” therefore makes it possible to complete the information provided by an accounting system “at constant prices.”These two systems can of course be integrated: this leads to the introduction of the concept of an accounting system “at constant prices and constant productivity.” Such an accounting system makes it possible to show, in the same accounting framework, the respective contributions of price changes and improved productivity to the gains realised by the different economic agents. It therefore gives a complete picture of “transfers” between the agents. At the same time, the data on price and productivity can be integrated with each other.

Notizen: In the course of preparing the Fifth French Plan, it seemed necessary to study the problem of equilibrium in capital markets in the future. For this purpose, a projection was made of the financial needs and resources of the different economic agents. The method employed was not entirely new: some attempts at projection for the medium term had already been made in the preparation of the Fourth Plan, and each year short term projections are made in connection with the different national economic budgets. However, the work on the Fifth Plan departs somewhat from what has been done before. With respect to the Fourth Plan, the methods have been improved, and greater thought has been given to integrating financial problems into the framework of the national accounts. With respect to the short term projections, the problems which must be faced are somewhat different. But more important than the differences are the characteristics which this method shares with all projections based on national accounting which are used in France. It is a part, in the first place, of a very general effort looking toward the integration of all economic forecasts into the same description of the future, taking account of the interdependence of different kinds of phenomena. In the second place, as is the case generally for the different elements of the accounting sketches used in the preparation of the plan, the object of the work is to expose the probable difficulties which will be met in the future. What is sought is essentially methods tending to point out problems, rather than means of preparing unconditional forecasts.In the presentation which follows of the method of medium term projection of financial flows, three parts will be distinguished. The work in question is part of a large structure of projections, and makes use of a formal scheme which is itself a part of the system of national accounts. It will therefore be convenient to make clear the framework in which the projection of financial flows is situated. In a second section, the method of projection used will be explained in general outline, and the last section will characterize the results obtained and present some reflections on the scope of the method.

Notizen: Developments in economic theory have in many ways enhanced the opportunity for using financial accounts data in monetary analysis. This is true in such areas as the role of assets, the development of portfolio choice theory, the demand for money, and the behavior of intermediaries. At the same time, theory has increasingly emphasized behavioral relationships. These developments give rise to new data needs. An inquiry was addressed to some 25 specialists, whose responses illustrate these needs. Some of the desired data are “more of the same,” such as more sectoring, more detail on financial instruments, data on stocks as well as flows. Some data needs, reflecting behavioral theorizing, point beyond traditional financial accounts data and call for maturity distributions, interest rates, rates of return on equities and real assets, and the parameters of their frequency distributions. The degree of economic development and the degree of openness are found to be important determinants of the kind of data to be sought and employed in particular countries.Public policy is finding increasing use for financial accounts data in coordinating the flow of financial resources with the planning of physical investment. Nevertheless, many policy purposes call for more detailed data than can be provided by an integrated system. This has led to a selective use of data sources outside the financial accounts. Builders of financial models, likewise, have found it preferable to work with more flexible data selected ad hoc than with integrated financial accounts. Hope of applying the techniques of modern model building to financial accounts data, such as econometric estimation of a flow of funds table, or its conversion into an input-output matrix, seems tenuous for the time being. Thus, financial accountants, competing with financial model builders for the attention of theorists and policy makers, must broaden the scope of their data in the hope that there is room for the growth of both disciplines.

Notizen: Co-operatives in North America, developed to correct or off set real or imagined wrongs in the economic system within which agriculture over time became further involved, have remained largely rural. Where successful, co-operatives bridged the gap between a fundamentalist agricultural production industry that tended to look inwards to itself and a privately capitalised marketing industry that looked outwards towards metropolitan and overseas markets. In pioneer and pioneering environments where free enterprise agri-business became significantly involved in on-farm or on-ranch operations, co-operatives did not become im-portant as the services and attitudes of agri-business complemented rather than exploited the man on the land.In the more commercialised integrated agriculture of today, corporate agri-business has found an interest in greater involvement in farm operations: much of this comes from changes in technology that make off-farm purchases as important a component of the agricultural com-plex as off-farm sales of products. Thus, co-operatives have lost their unique “bridge” role, have problems themselves of identity and of their most desirable patterns of future development. But their competition-existing corporate agri-business and new entrants from the conglom-erate industrial giants-are not without their problems also. These are outlined as well as the issues co-operatives-and co-operative philosophers and promoters-must tackle if they are to remain successful market participants and have identifiable characteristics that reflect co- operative idealism. The unique member-client relationship the co-operative is based on should be exploited to maintain and expand these complementary and essential goals for continued farmers’business participation in the North American and world economies.

Notizen: Book Review in this ArticleGeorge Davidovic LIST OF PUBLICATIONS ON PUBLIC AND CO-OPERATIVE ECONOMY SUBJECTS ARTICLES LIST OF PUBLICATIONS ABSTRACTED

Notizen: This paper examines the relationship between the Chief Executive of a CO-operative retail society and his Board of Directors. It takes for its starting point three critical activities of the Chief Executive, i.e. the achievement of society objectives; the maintenance of the internal stability of the society and the adaptation of the society to the external environment.Two factors which influence the performance of these activities are the Chief Executive's orientation to society performance and his relationship with his Board.The Chief Executive will tend to be inward-outward in orientation. Factors affecting this will be his previous task experience and organisational experience of which two aspects are important (a) time—the length of service a t lower and middle management level and (b) structure—the degree of delegation. These will affect the Chief Executive Officer's ability to deal with uncertainty in the environment, A third influential factor will be the attitudes and expectations of his Board which will be structured by their perception of democratic control. Finally the nature of the environment will affect the Chief Executive's orientation and his flexibility.In dealing with the problems which face him the Chief Executive is influenced by his reference points, i.e. by the degree of internalisation of co-operative values, and by his beliefs about the rightness of previous decisions.His decision-making is influenced by the interaction of his beliefs and those of his Board and by the depth to which they are held. These beliefs may be seen in two parts, first, relating to the nature of co-operative enterprise and secondly, to the method by which the co-operative enterprise is controlled.Contributing to the depth of internalisation of co-operative beliefs would appear to be their social and political backgrounds. Additional factors for the Chief Executive Officer include length of service in the co-operative movement, non-co-operative experience and his commitment to :managerial values'.On the basis of the differing orientations of the persons concerned, it is possible to hypothesise the development of certain decision-making situations.