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  • Articles  (8,316)
  • Springer  (6,394)
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  • 1980-1984  (7,631)
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  • Economics  (6,623)
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  • Articles  (8,316)
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  • 201
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 39-58 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Normatives ; objectives ; multiples ; approximations ; models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper discusses the rationale for the use of additive models involving multiple objectives as approximations to normative analyses. Experience has shown us that organizations often evaluate important decisions with multiple objective models rather than reducing all aspects of the problem to a single criterion, dollars, as many normative economic models prescribe. We justify this practice on two grounds: managers often prefer to think about a problem in terms of several dimensions and a multiple objective model may provide an excellent approximation to the more complex normative model. We argue that a useful analysis based on a multiple objective model will fulfill both conditions—it will provide insights for the decision maker as well as a good approximation to the normative model. We report several real-world examples of managers using multiple objective models to approximate such normative models as the risk-adjusted net present value and the value of information models. The agreement between the approximate models and the normative models is shown to be quite good. Next, we cite a portion of the behavioral decision theory literature which establishes that linear models of multiple attributes provide quite robust approximations to individual decision-making processes. We then present more general theoretical and empirical results which support our contention that linear multiple attribute models can provide good approximations to more complex models.
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  • 202
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 157-182 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A stochastic investiment is analyzed to show the consequences of an unwillingness by the entrepreneur to accept any positive risk of the firm's failure. The entrepreneur does not invest in additional capacity, even in the face of continuing positive expected profits, if that investment would infringe on the firm's ability to survive. Survival of the firm conditions all investment decisions, which are functions (via the physical and financial capital accounts) of the random outcomes observed at the time of decision. This conditioning shows how worse than expected outcomes will affect the firm's net asset position and its ability to survive. Managerially, the entrepreneur has principles by which to explicitly consider unpleasant surprises in planning for the continued growth of the firm. In contrast, knowledge of the random outcomes is shown to be of no consequence in an alternative model where maximization of expected profits is the sole criterion of the entrepreneur. In that model, the optimal investiment decisions can be made at the beginning of the firm's life, because those decisions are not functions of the future yields. Reduction of the survival model to a linear programming (LP) problem highlights the additional complexity of the survival problem. This reduction means that the maximum value of the objective function for the primal (expected profits) equals the minimum value of the objective function for the dual (resource costs), which economists interpret as zero profits. The zero profit consequence is in accordance with Knight's long-standing economic conjecture: If all risks are measureable, total risk aversion will result in no profits. Also, LP methods provide a way in application to analyze a wide range of risk possibilities from acceptance of no risk of failure to acceptance of some risk of failure.
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  • 203
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 229-238 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Trends ; efficiency ; technology ; energy ; productivity ; alternatives
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper discusses long-term trends in relationships between energy use and the overall productive efficiency of the American economy. While total energy consumption grew strongly during the twentieth century, the intensity of energy use (i.e. the energy/GNP ratio) fell persistently much of the time. Thus, there were simultaneous long-term improvements in labor productivity, total factor productivity,and energy productivity. The historical record appears to be at odds with conventional beliefs that gains in productive efficiency depend upon the rising intensity of energy use in production processes. A key role in bringing about these counter-intuitive results is assigned to what is referred to as the energy-technology-productivity nexus, in which the quality of particular energy forms such as electricity and liquid fuels (along with closely linked changes in energy-using technologies) played a critical part in leveraging the overall efficiency of production. As a result of these energy form-dependent improvements in productive efficiency, outputs grew more rapidly than all inputs, including the inputs of energy. The more recent past stands in sharp contrast to the long-term record. While energy efficiency (as measured by energy/GNP) showed strong gains during the late 1970's and early 1980's, the growth in overall productive efficiency was severely retarded. Implications for the future of suggested linkages between the quality of particular energy forms and technological progress are considered.
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  • 204
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 329-334 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: nation ; technology ; economics ; environment ; tradeoff's ; policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Analysis of pending national policy takes on greater importance each day to supply policy makers with much needed data on the overall economic effect such policies will have on total employment, income, output, tax revenues, and the general price level throughout the economy. This short paper examines the potential for integration of existing modeling technology into a meaningful national planning model to provide a sound set of economic indices leading to enhanced market efficiency and resource use. Initial efforts at integrated modeling and analysis are described, together with indications of their levels of success in replicating the existing economic environment. Emphasis is placed on determination of shadow prices in a growing economy and their incorporation into the systematic development of a national planning model.
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  • 205
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 291-303 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Towers of Hanoi ; error-correcting algorithm ; probabilistic analysis ; discrete density function ; recurrence equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Any sequence of legal moves leads the Towers of Hanoi puzzle to an arrangement from which the final configuration must be built up. A recursive algorithm which finishes off the puzzle is considered and, assuming a uniform distribution on the possible unfinished situations, the density function of the number of moves it takes is derived.
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  • 206
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 255-271 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Probabilistic analysis ; set covering ; heuristics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A probabilistic analysis of the minimum cardinality set covering problem (SCP) is developed, considering a stochastic model of the (SCP), withn variables andm constraints, in which the entries of the corresponding (m, n) incidence matrix are independent Bernoulli distributed random variables, each with constant probabilityp of success. The behaviour of the optimal solution of the (SCP) is then investigated as bothm andn grow asymptotically large, assuming either an incremental model for the evolution of the matrix (for each size, the matrixA is obtained bordering a matrix of smaller size by new columns and rows) or an independent one (for each size, an entirely new set of entries forA are considered). Two functions ofm are identified, which represent a lower and an upper bound onn in order the (SCP) to be a.e. feasible and not trivial. Then, forn lying within these bounds, an asymptotic formula for the optimum value of the (SCP) is derived and shown to hold a.e. The performance of two simple randomized algorithms is then analyzed. It is shown that one of them produces a solution value whose ratio to the optimum value asymptotically approaches 1 a.e. in the incremental model, but not in the independent one, in which case the ratio is proved to be tightly bounded by 2 a.e. Thus, in order to improve the above result, a second randomized algorithm is proposed, for which it is proved that the ratio between the approximate solution value and the optimum approaches 1 a.e. also in the independent model.
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  • 207
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 111-128 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Global optimization ; Bayesian nonparametric inference ; random distributions ; cluster analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A crucial step in global optimization algorithms based on random sampling in the search domain is decision about the achievement of a prescribed accuracy. In order to overcome the difficulties related to such a decision, the Bayesian Nonparametric Approach has been introduced. The aim of this paper is to show the effectiveness of the approach when an ad hoc clustering technique is used for obtaining promising starting points for a local search algorithm. Several test problems are considered.
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  • 208
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 135-149 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Optimisation ; parallel computation ; DAP ; SIMD ; MIMD ; speed-up
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we will consider the effect of introducing parallel computers to solve optimisation problems. We briefly highlight four situations where most improvements are likely. We consider the possible interaction of the four classifications with the currently available parallel processing machines. A brief description of one of the parallel systems, ICL DAP, is outlined. We have implemented two parallel (SIMD) algorithms, one for local optimisation and the other for global optimisation, on the ICL DAP. Numerical results, together with the processing times, are reported.
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  • 209
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 183-200 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Random graphs ; colouring ; probabilistic analysis of algorithms ; greedy heuristics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We discuss some results concerned with the behaviour of colouring algorithms on large random graphs.
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  • 210
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 215-238 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Geometric location problems ; probabilistic analysis ; heuristics ; k center ; k median
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We analyze the behaviour of thek center and median problems forn points randomly distributed in an arbitrary regionA ofR d . Under a mild assumption on the regionA, we show that fork≦k(n)=o(n/logn), the objective function values of the discrete and continuous versions of these problems are equal to each otheralmost surely. For the two-dimensional case, both these problems can be solved by placing the centers or medians in an especially simple regular hexagonal pattern (the ‘honeycomb heuristic’ of Papadimitriou). This yields the exact asymptotic values for thek center and median problem, namely, α(|A|/k)1/2 and β(|A|/k)1/2, where |A| denotes the volume ofA, α and β are known constants, and the objective of the median problem is given in terms of the average, rather than the usual total, distance. For the 3- and 4-dimensional case, similar results can be obtained for the center problem to within an accuracy of roughly one percent. As a by-product, we also get asymptotically optimal algorithms for the 2-dimensionalp-normk median problem and for the twin problems of minimizing the maximum number of vertices served by any center and similarly for maximizing the minimum.
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  • 211
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 305-329 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Sequencing ; job shop ; flow shop ; exponential distribution ; stochastic dominance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper a survey is presented of some of the recent results in stochastic open shop, flow shop and job shop scheduling. The distributions of the processing times of the jobs are known in advance, but the actual processing times are not known in advance. The jobs may have due dates. Optimal preemptive and nonpreemptive policies are determined for the minimization of various objective functions, such as the expected makespan, the expected flow time and the expected number of late jobs. The effect of various degrees of dependence between the processing times of any given job on the various machines is investigated. Under given conditions bounds are obtained for the expected makespan in the different models.
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  • 212
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 201-211 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Industry ; decisions ; plans ; technology ; fuel ; tradeoffs ; executives
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper describes the present status of new product evaluation and decision making in large and small companies. It discusses the need to draw from a wide range of sources for societal as well as financial and technical information. While deficiencies and the need for improved analytical capabilities are identified, the emphasis is on what can be done, and near term problems using as an example the decision to produce a new type of vehicle engine.
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  • 213
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 271-284 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Search ; uncertainty ; economics ; exploration ; minerals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A sequential method of modeling the increase in precision of expected net revenues for a proposed exploration and exploitation program has been developed. Embedded within a computer simulation model of the exploration process, which incorporates a method of learning about deposit characteristics, is a multi-stage stochastic optimization process model to determine the optimal exploitation pattern of the deposit. This approach stresses the interdependence of the planning of the exploration and exploitation processes. The model can be used to determine the amount of exploration which should be undertaken in an area by more precisely predicting the long-range profitability associated with the amount of exploration. Thus, decision makers are provided a capability which reduces the uncertainty in profitability outcomes over future production periods.
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  • 214
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 139-156 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
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  • 215
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 335-345 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
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  • 216
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 201-214 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Probabilistic analysis ; location problems ; heuristics ; NP-hard problems ; approximation algorithm ; asymptotic optimality
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We discuss in this paper several location problems for which it is an NP-hard problem to find an approximate solution. Given certain assumptions on the input distributions, we present polynomial algorithms that deliver a solution asymptotically close to the optimum with probability that is asymptotically one (the exact nature of this asymptotic convergence is described in the paper). In that sense the subproblems defined on the specified family of inputs are in fact easy.
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  • 217
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 183-200 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Tradeoffs ; decisions ; objectives ; games ; policies ; environment ; acid rain
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Many contemporary political and economic problems have attributes of social dilemmas. These dilemmas are simply characterized as settings in which individuals have a dominant strategy to not cooperate in collective action. However, this choice results in a Pareto-inferior outcome. Likewise, a dominated strategy exists that results in a Pareto-superior outcome. Where cooperation is absent, this problem has been described as ann-person prisoner's dilemma. This paper discusses the environmental problem of acid rain as such a social dilemma. Relying on a series of laboratory experimental settings, the argument is that many social dilemmas can be resolved through the construction of institutional mechanisms allowing for the coordination of the participant's joint strategies. Policy analysts in particular can profit from focusing on institutional solutions to social dilemmas.
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  • 218
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 213-227 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Strategic planning ; research and development planning ; normative analysis ; the planning process ; organizational arrangements for strategic planning
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Strategic planning, by nature, is concerned with the organization's interaction with its environment and is normative because it deals with organizational motives and self image. The salient problem confronting strategic planning is to reflect the abstract and implicit value system held by management within a disciplined and informed analytical methodology. The Gas Research Institute has developed a strategic planning process, centered upon the annual development of a projection of the U.S. energy/economic situation. The process, which requires collaboration of top management and analytical staff, brings current environmental data and sophisticated methodology to bear on the outlook for the gas industry and gas-related technologies, but it ensures that analytical judgements will be influenced and, if necessary, overriden by current management values. Contradictions between managament perceptions and objective analysis are raised and resolved in an explicit process.
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  • 219
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 87-110 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Global optimization ; statistical optimization ; Bayesian statistics ; random search
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Several different approaches have been suggested for the numerical solution of the global optimization problem: space covering methods, trajectory methods, random sampling, random search and methods based on a stochastic model of the objective function are considered in this paper and their relative computational effectiveness is discussed. A closer analysis is performed of random sampling methods along with cluster analysis of sampled data and of Bayesian nonparametric stopping rules.
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  • 220
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 11-21 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Normatives ; commons ; dilemmas ; tragedies ; policies ; decisions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Humans are constantly making evaluations about the direction of movement in time of systems perceived as relevant, in terms of whether things are moving to the better or to the worse. The relevant system may be very small or as large as the whole planet earth; evaluations seldom go beyond the solar system. We evaluate things like health, wealth, security, justice, etc. and we have a strange capacity for putting many diverse variables together into a single rough evaluation. Accountants evaluate the state of a balance sheet or position statement quantitatively in terms of dollars; economists evaluate aggregates like the GNP. But almost everyone goes beyond quantification into rough, qualitative evaluations of the total state of a system. The evaluation of overall systems runs into the difficulty that different persons evaluate the same perceived change differently. Nevertheless, there are many processes in society by which differing evaluations are coordinated, even if they are not reconciled. The market is one, politics is another, and the moral order is a third. In large systems we are unlikely to come out with a single answer to even the question of whether things are getting better or worse. But we can identify certain instances where there is wide agreement that a movement is for the worse: the ‘cliffs’-disasters, premature deaths, losses of liberty, etc. We can furthermore specify certain dynamic systems likely to produce these dramatic worsenings, and perhaps do something about them.
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  • 221
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  • 222
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    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 113-138 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
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  • 223
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    Annals of operations research 1 (1984), S. 151-164 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Unconstrained optimization ; parallel algorithms ; MIMD systems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes an implementation on the Neptune system at Loughborough University of Sutti's parallel (MIMD) algorithm [1–3] and an analysis of its performance. Parallel asynchronous versions of Powell's method [6] and Price's algorithm [7] are proposed, designed for efficient implementation on MIMD systems.
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  • 224
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    Decisions in economics and finance 3 (1980), S. 60-60 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
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  • 225
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    Decisions in economics and finance 3 (1980), S. 61-72 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
    Keywords: Cubic Programming ; Convex Simplex Method ; Directions ; Convergence ; Computation Time
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Si presenta un adattamento del metodo «Convex Simplex» per risolvere problemi la cui funzione obiettivo è cubica. L'algoritmo analizza le derivate parziali della funzione obiettivo e indica la direzione e la variazione ottimali per procedere poi in analogia all'algoritmo di Beale. Vengono infine analizzate l'efficenza e la convergenza del metodo e considerati vari esempi pratici di applicazione della programmazione cubica.
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a specialization of the Convex Simplex method to cubic objective functions. The algorithm selects a direction of improvement by looking at the partial derivative. An optimal step is chosen by maximizing the objective function in that direction. This involves considering quadratic derivatives and selecting the appropriate step size. The pivoting is done by either a simple Simplex pivoting or by addition of a constraint as in Beale's algorithm. The convergence and the computational efficiency of the algorithm are presented in the last section of the paper, with several examples of application of cubic programming.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 29-38 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract This paper deals with the set of adverse to risk decision-makers. For this set a method to check stochastic dominance is proposed. The method works when utility function value is known only on a finite set of points.
    Notes: Abstract In questo lavoro si considera la classe dei decisori avversi al rischio e per questa classe viene proposto un metodo per verificare la dominanza stocastica tra due possibilità in alternativa quando la funzione d'utilità sia nota soltanto in un numero finito di punti.
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  • 227
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 97-98 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
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    Decisions in economics and finance 3 (1980), S. 101-108 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract Here we propose two different methods to overcome the pratical difficulties present in the application of two-attribute utility functions in decision problems under uncertainty. The first method consists in deriving them through modified preference axioms, whereas the second deals with their numerical approximations without violating the fundamental properties of preference ordering.
    Notes: Abstract Nella prima parte di questo lavoro, definita l'indipendenza tra gli attributi di una funzione di utilità di due variabiliu(x, y) si determinano forme multilineari del tipou(x, y) = α 1 u 1 (x) + α 2 u 2 (y) + α 12 u 1 (x)u 2 (y) e se ne studiano le proprietà. Successivamente si propongono alcune approssimazioni diu(x, y) e si verifica quali proprietà fondamentali degli ordinamenti di preferenza esse conservano. In entrambi i casi si ottengono delle forme la cui utilità acquista rilevanza nella semplificazione operativa nei problemi di decisione in condizioni di incertezza.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 3 (1980), S. 109-125 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract In this paper (first part of a wider work; the second part will appear in the next issue of this journal) we support the idea that the major objective of inductive reasoning is the distribution for outcomes of any sample not jet observed (predictive distribution) Parameters are a secondary device that can ultimately be justified and can lend some simplification. According to this point of view, we study a notion of prediction sufficiency introduced by F. Spizzichino (1978). Many of the results true for classical sufficient statistics apply to our predictive sufficient statistics as we demonstrate in Section 3. In the second part we analyse sequences of predictive sufficient statistics and their relations with classical sufficient statistics for the parameters which are limits of these sequences. The examples of Section 2 represent a first limited approach to this problem.
    Notes: Abstract Si studia una nozione di riassunto esaustivo, che diremo a fini predittivi e che è già stata oggetto d'indagine da parte di F. Spizzichino sotto diversa denominazione. Si pone in evidenza la naturalezza di questa nuova definizione che, senza alcuna restrizione, può essere applicata in ogni tipo di ragionamento induttivo. Nella prima parte della ricerca, dopo alcune esemplificazioni sull'applicazione in alcuni tipici problemi inferenziali con particolare riguardo alla costruzione di modelli ipotetici a partire da considerazioni squisitamente predittive del concentto di riassunto esaustivo a fini predittivi, se ne studiano le principali proprietà. Nella seconda parte (che apparirà in un prossimo numero di questa Rivista) se ne analizzeranno i rapporti con le più abituali nozioni di riassunto esaustivo.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 151-158 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract We consider the problem of determining the «optimal policy» for a firm having to sink a debt in the form ofN bonds of face valueC, issue priceC′, redemption priceC k , and ratei k , by means of redemption ofN k bonds at the end of each year $$(0〈 m_k〈 N_k〈 M_k〈 N,k = 1,2, \ldots ,n,\sum\limits_{k - 1}^n {m_k〈 N,} \sum\limits_{k - 1}^n {M_k〈 N} ).$$ The firm estimates that in the period (k,n)−k=0,1,2,...,n−1−the yield rate will assume one of the following values $$j_{k1} ,j_{k2} , \ldots j_{ks_k }$$ with probabilities $$p_{k1} ,p_{k2} , \ldots p_{ks_k } \left( {\sum\limits_{t - 1}^{s_k } {p_{kt} = 1} } \right).$$ Therefore the average compound amount per unit in (k, n) will be $$\sum\limits_{t - 1}^{s_k } {(1 + j_{kt} )^{n - k} p_{kt} = \lambda _k .}$$ Assuming the firm to be in a position to reinvest the profits obtained each year, the numbers of bonds retired each year is determined so that the total average profit will be a maximum. The problem is solved with methods of linear programming.
    Notes: Abstract Viene considerato il problema della determinazione della «politica ottima» di un'impresa che deve ammortizzare un prestito diviso in obbligazioni, noti i tassi di interesse del prestito, la redditività del capitale disponibile e prefissati vincoli sul numero massimo di obbligazioni da rimborsare nei singoli anni. Il problema viene risolto coi metodi della programmazione lineare.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 3-17 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract This paper concerns the discrete minimax problem of the loaded dice. Two local minimax conditions are applied to the problem. The first is necessary and substantially already known, the second is sufficient, new and contained in a previous work by the Author. Ifn consecutive sums have the same maximal probability, the necessity condition for a local minimax is satisfied. Under two additional hypothesis, that often occur, the sufficient condition is satisfied too. Therefore we obtain an already known result by Clemens.
    Notes: Abstract Nell'articolo si applicano al problema di minimax discreto dei dadi truccati due condizioni di minimax locale, una necessaria, sostanzialmente già nota, e l'altra sufficiente, originale, contenute in un precedente lavoro dell'autore. Si dimostra che una distribuzione di probabilità per la qualen somme consecutive sono equiprobabili e di probabilità massima verifica la condizione necessaria e che sotto due ulteriori ipotesi, che in pratica appaiono spesso verificate, tale distribuzione verifica altresì la condizione sufficiente di minimax locale. Si deduce quindi un risultato di Clemens.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 3 (1980), S. 128-128 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 3-11 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract Suppose that a sequence of predictive sufficient statistics (p.s.s.) is given. In this paper (the second of a wider work; the first appeared in the last issue of this journal) we deal with these problems: a) given a predictive distribution for which a sequence of p.s.s. exist is it possible to draw an hypothetical model consistent with the given predictive distribution? b) in the affirmative, what is the relationship between the concept of p.s.s. and the classical concepts of sufficency? The answer to the first problem is affirmative; and the answer to the second is in the sense of the equivalence between the concept of p.s.s. and that of adequate statistic (M. Skibinsky (1967)).
    Notes: Abstract Proseguendo nella ricerca, la cui prima parte è stata pubblicata nel precedente numero di questa Rivista, trattiamo delle successioni di riassunti esaustivi a fini preditivi (r.e.f.p.) ed affrontiamo i seguenti problemi: a) assegnata una distribuzione predittiva per cui esiste un r.e.f.p. è possibile individuare un modello ipotetico con essa compatibile? b) in caso affermativo, qual è il collegamento tra tale r.e.f.p. e gli eventuali r.e. in senso classico relativi al modello ipotetico individuato? Infine analizzeremo, in modo piuttosto informale e perciò ulteriormente sviluppabile, il problema dell'espressione analitica di un r.e.f.p.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 39-45 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Il problema della rovina in un gioco (equo o non) tra due giocatori è classico. Alcuni risultati sono noti per un gioco equo di rovina tra più di due giocatori. In questa nota un gioco non equo di rovina tra più di due giocatori è preso in considerazione, ricavando per esso una nuova formula.
    Notes: Abstract The «gambler's ruin» problem both in the fair game and in the unfair game with two players is a classical one. Some results are known also for a fair ruin game among more than two players. In this note an unfair ruin game among more than two players is tackled and a new formula is derived.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 106-106 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 57-65 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract The activity of a company operating on a non-life insurance market is defined and studied. The return from any insurance contract is assumed to be a submartingale. Under the assumption that the return on the portfolio is “adjustable”, useful upper bounds are obtained for the probability of ultimate ruin and for the probability of ruin in a finite time interval. The results are discussed for a market of independent risks which is stratified in risk classes; the case of risks of Poisson type and the assumption of correlation inside the risk classes are mentioned.
    Notes: Abstract Viene formalizzata e studiata l'attività di una compagnia che opera in un mercato assicurativo non vita. Si ipotizza che il guadagno realizzato sulla generica polizza sia una submartingala. Si danno disuguaglianze significative per la probabilità di rovina all'infinito ed entro l'n-mo periodo nel caso in cui il rendimento di portafoglio della compagnia sia “aggiustabile”. I risultati vengono discussi nel caso in cui il mercato sia stratificato in classi di rischio nell'ipotesi di indipendenza; si accenna al caso particolare di rischi poissoniani e all'ipotesi di correlazione interna alle classi di rischio.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 5-13 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 75-86 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract LetX andY be two random numbers with the same distribution function; in this paper we consider the problem of finding a random numberX+Y having mode with minimal probability. In particular we have considered only the case ofX andY assuming the firstn integer values, so thatp (dimensionn) is the common distribution andq (dimension 2n–1) is the distribution ofX+Y; then the problem is to minimizem=maxq 1. In the known literature it appears that theoretical results and numerical experience have brought to various conjectures not confermed. In this paper the problem is considered from the mathematical programming point of view. Several theoretical results are obtained even if the full solution of the problem is not reached. Anyway, such results, limiting the search range of a solution, suggested extended numerical testing, also for rather large values ofn, so that non trivial conclusions can be derived.
    Notes: Abstract In questo lavoro si studia il problema di ricerca della distribuzione di probabilità comune da assegnare a due numeri aleatori discreti che assumano i primin valori interi naturali in modo che la loro somma abbia moda di minima probabilità. Il problema è affrontato sia dal punto di vista teorico tramite gli strumenti della programmazione matematica, sia dal punto di vista numerico.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 67-72 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 97-113 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract In this paper discrete minimax problems are considered. Some first order optimality conditions for minimax problems in hypothesis of different kind about the set of constraints are proved. We don't suppose that the set is convex, as treated by V. F. Dem'yanov and V. M. Malozemov. For the proofs it has often been used the alternative Motzkin's theorem.
    Notes: Abstract Si dimostrano delle condizioni del primo ordine, alcune necessarie e altre sufficienti per problemi di minimax di tipo discreto, utilizzando prevalentemente il teorema dell'alternativa di Motzkin.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 19-30 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract In this paper a modification of the method of multipliers is presented. Numerical results obtained are included too.
    Notes: Abstract In questo lavoro viene presentata una modifica del metodo dei moltiplicatori. I risultati numerici ottenuti sono poi considerati.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 123-141 
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    Keywords: Bayes and maximum probability estimators ; bivariate family ; consistency ; expected number of observations ; loss of efficiency ; ridge ; spacings
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Si propongono alcuni stimatori di θ che caratterizza la dislocazione del punto di discontinuità per la densità di probabilità: $$f(x,\theta ) = \frac{1}{{2\Gamma (\alpha )}}\exp ( - |x - \theta |) \cdot |x - \theta |^{\alpha - 1} $$ con $$0〈 \alpha〈 1, - \infty〈 x〈 + \infty , - \infty〈 \theta〈 + \infty .$$ Gli stimatori proposti sono basati sulla spaziatura delle osservazioni. Si mostra anche che una famiglia di densità-bivariate, dipendenti dal parametro θ possiede caratteristiche simili a quella di densità univariata.
    Notes: Abstract Here we propose a few estimators of θ, in addition to those studied in Goria (1978), the point of discontinuity of the probability density $$f(x,\theta ) = \frac{1}{{2\Gamma (\alpha )}}e^{ - |x - \theta |} |x - \theta |^{\alpha - 1} ,$$ for $$0〈 \alpha〈 1, - \infty〈 x〈 \infty , - \infty〈 \theta〈 \infty .$$ We establish the consistency and the optimality of the Bayes and the maximum probability estimators. Despite their nice properties, these estimators are not easy to compute in this case and their effective computation depends on the knowledge of the exponent α. Hence, we propose another class of estimators, dependent upon the spacings of the observations, computable without actual knowledge of the value of α as long as it is known that α 〈 α0 〈 1: we show that these estimators converge at the best possible rate. We further demonstrate, using a modified version of the maximum probability estimator's technique, that the tails of the density do not substantially effect their efficiency. Finally a bivariate family of densities, having a ridge dependent on the parameter θ, is considered and it is shown that this family exhibits features similar to the univariate case, and thus, the necessary modifications of the arguments of the univariate case are utilized for the estimation of θ in this bivariate example.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 39-49 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto In grandi imprese o in sistemi economici nazionali la pianificazione riguarda un numero elevato di attività interrelate che fanno uso delle stesse risorse. Nonostante le ipotesi di base piuttosto restrittive, il modelloinput-output di Leontief è ancora uno degli strumenti più efficaci per lo studio dei flussi fisici e finanziari tra attività o settori economici. In questo lavoro viene presentato un semplice algoritmo per individuare la soluzione d'un problema di pianificazione quando sono limitati gli ammontari delle risorse. Sono dimonstrate alcune proprietà di questo algoritmo, che fu impiegato su un modello di relazioni interindustriali costruito in Venezuela e sono fornite alcune applicazioni esemplificatrici.
    Notes: Abstract In a large corporation or at the national level, planning involves a large number of inter-related activities competing for the same resources. In spite of its rather restrictive assumptions, Leontief's Input-Output model is still one of the best tool for the study of physical and financial flows between activities or economic sectors. A simple algorithm to find its solution when the available resources are limited is presented in this paper. The properties of that algorithm that was incorporated in an inter-industrial model built in Venezuela are proven and are followed by examples of application.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 67-78 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract The extension of the classical assignment problem tok-dimension is discussed, and solved in the casek=3. The problem is solved using an algorithm that mixes the ≪hungarian method≫ and the ≪branch and bound≫ technique.
    Notes: Abstract In questa nota si studia il problema di assegnazione 3-dimensionale con una estensionek-dimensionale, e si propone un algoritmo risolutivo misto derivato dall'algoritmo Ungherese e dalle tecniche «branch and bound».
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 108-108 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 39-44 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Si mostra che la convergenza in probabilità è condizione sufficiente perché una misura forte della concordanza converga a uno, e che la convergenza a uno di una misura forte della concordanza, insieme con la convergenza in legge, è condizione sufficiente per la convergenza in probabilità.
    Notes: Abstract It is shown that convergence in probability is sufficient for a strong measure of concordance to converge to one, and that convergence to one of a strong measure of concordance, along with convergence in law, is sufficient for convergence in probability.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 3 (1980), S. 128-128 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 13-28 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Résumé On étudie d'un point de vue purement formel (en se plaçant dans un cadre abstrait très général) les relations entre la notion de résumé exhaustif «au sens classique» et celle de résumé exhaustif «au sens bayesien». On analyse notamment, pour chacune de ces deux notions, les conditions de validité de la factorisation de Neyman.
    Notes: Abstract Si studiano dal punto di vista formale (ponendosi in un quadro astratto molto generale) le relazioni tra la nozione di riassunto esaustivo «in senso classico» e quella di riassunto esaustivo «in senso bayesiano». In particolare si analizzano, per ciascuna di queste nozioni, le condizioni di validità della fattorizzazione di Neyman.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 48-48 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 49-58 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract The randomized response technique of sampling was proposed for the first time by S. L. Warner for the estimation of proportions and then applied, by Warner himself and other authors, to the estimation of quantities. This technique has been recently the object of an approach by D. Olivieri who suggests an easy randomization method and obtains an unbiased estimate of the population mean. In this paper the approach of D. Olivieri is implemented, reaching an unbiased estimate of the second moment of the population; moreover, an other estimate of the mean and of the variance of the population, obtained by an easier-to apply method of randomization, is proposed.
    Notes: Abstract Il campionamento con risposta casualizzata, introdotto da S. L. Warner per la stima di proporzioni ed in seguito applicato dallo stesso autore e da altri alla stima di quantità, è stato oggetto di un recente studio di D. Olivieri che, proposto un semplice metodo di casualizzazione, perviene ad una stima non distorta della media della popolazione oggetto d'indagine. Nel presente lavoro si sviluppa lo studio di Olivieri fornendo una stima non distorta del secondo momento della popolazione e si propone un'altra stima della media e della varianza della popolazione ottenuta tramite un metodo di casualizzazione di più semplice applicazione.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 83-87 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract Some types of finitely additive probabilities (conglomerative, disintegrable, balanced, weakly balanced) are examined, and their relationship with σ-additivity is studied.
    Notes: Abstract Si studiano le mutue relazioni fra alcune classi di probabilità finitamente additive che si incontrano in certe applicazioni statistiche, e cioè le probabilità conglomerative, disintegrabili, bilanciate, debolmente bilanciate, esaminandone anche i legami con la σ-additività.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 109-119 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 51-55 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Si affronta il problema di individuazione d'una politica tariffaria da parte di un istituto assicuratore pubblico in condizioni di monopolio che rispetti la razionalità individuale e spinga l'assicurato a rivelare il suo tasso di sinistrosità.
    Notes: Résumé L'objectif visé par la présente étude consiste en l'apport d'une réponse que nous jugeons positive à la question suivante: un organisme étatique, placé en situation de monopole, peut-il concevoir à l'usage de sa clientèle, supposée hétérogène et soumise au régime de l'assurance obligatoire, une tarification à la fois incitatrice et respectueuse de la rationalité individuelle?
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 31-38 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract This paper deals with some stochastic dominance conditions of the first, second and third order for decision problems in conditions of uncertainty. The case we consider is characterized by an assigned finite set of point of the graph of the utility function and by more than one intersection points between the distribution functions of the random gains.
    Notes: Abstract Questo lavoro fornisce condizioni di dominanza stocastica di 1°, 2° e 3° ordine per problemi di decisione in condizioni d'incertezza, quando sia nota la funzione d'utilità solo in un numero finito di punti e quando le funzioni di ripartizione dei guadagni aleatori s'intersecano più d'una volta.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 101-107 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 6 (1983), S. 111-125 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 15-28 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Nel presente lavoro si propone una definizione di dominanza (dominanza in senso stretto) più debole della dominanza stocastica del prim'ordine, precisamente dicendo che la v.a.Y dominaX (X≠Y) se Pr(Y≧X)=1. Si confronta poi tale dominanza in senso stretto con le dominanze stocastiche del primo e del secondo ordine e con la dominanza tra decisioni di uno stesso problema di decisione sintetizzato in una tabella dei risultati giungendo ad alcune precisazioni generali sui problemi di decisione e di scelta tra v.a. Si danno anche indicazioni su come sia possibile ottenere limitazioni per la Pr(Y≧X).
    Notes: Abstract The present work proposes a definition of dominance (dominance in the strict sense), which is weaker than first order stochastic dominance, stating precisely that the r.v.Y dominatesX (X≠Y) if Pr(Y≧X)=1. Such a dominance in the strict sense is then compared with first and second order stochastic dominance and with dominance between descisions of the same decision problem summarised in a table of results, arriving at certain general remarks about decision problems and the choice between r.v.'s. Indications are also given about how it is possible to obtain simple and useful bounds for Pr(Y≧X).
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 67-77 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Si risolve il problema della sostituzione ottimale perdue en componenti con un singolo pezzo di «unloaded standby». La soluzione è determinata dai costi relativi del guasto per ogni componente ed è indipendente dal tempo specifico in cui il guasto è avvenuto, salvo che sia assunta l'immediata sostituzione. Si derivano condizioni per l'esistenza di una politica basata su un solo numero critico e si studia la politica generale.
    Notes: Abstract The problem of optimal replacement for two andn components with a single unloaded standby is solved. The solution is determined by the relative costs of failure for each component and is independent of the actual failure time, other than immediate replacement being specified. Conditions for the existence of a single critical number policy are derived and the general policy is described.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 95-96 
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 59-64 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto In questo lavoro si considera l'estensione, al caso din paesi concorrenti, del modello concorrenziale dell'attività peschereccia proposto da Levhari e Mirman. Viene derivata la configurazione di equilibrio di Cournot-Nash e si calcola il suo valore stazionario per analizzare l'effetto d'entrata (o d'uscita) di un agente nella attività concorrenziale. Viene infine fatto un confronto tra la conduzione individuale della pesca in ogni singolo paese e la conduzione congiunta di tutti i paesi considerati.
    Notes: Abstract A dynamic Cournot-Nash equilibrium of the fish war between two countries has been derived and its steady-state behavior studied by Levhari and Mirman on the basis of a discrete dynamic programming method. In this paper we shall consider an n-country extension of Levhari-Mirman fish war model. We shall derive the Cournot-Nash equilibrium and its steady-state value to analyze the effects of entry (or exit) in fish war. A comparison is made between in dividual management of fishery by each country and joint management by all countries.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 4 (1981), S. 89-102 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract J. Aitchison and I. R. Dunsmore (1975) have stressed the importance of the predictive distribution for the solution of classical statistical problems. Following this approach we show initially how a modified version of the model of partial exchangeability can be usefully applied to derive the so called diagnostic distribution. Subsequently a nonparametric model of discriminatory analysis is derived, wherein a crucial role is played by a particular process named «mixture of products of Dirichlet processes» introduced by D. M. Cifarelli and E. Regazzini (1978) following a paper by C. E. Antoniak (1974) which in turn generalized the well known “Dirichlet process” developed by T. S. Ferguson (1973). Finally a numerical application to a medical problem is provided.
    Notes: Abstract Seguendo l'impostazione predittiva delineata da J. Aitchison e I. R. Dunsmore (1975) viene proposto un modello non-parametrico di analisi discriminatoria dal punto di vista bayesiano. Si ricorre a tal fine ad una versione modificata dello schema di scambiabilità parziale e si utilizza il processo «mistura di prodotti di processi di Dirichlet» introdotto da D. M. Cifarelli ed. E. Regazzini (1978). Si presenta infine un'applicazione del modello ad un tipico problema di diagnosi medica.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 15-23 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract In this paper, a methodology for modeling group decision-making problem is presented and links between group and individual multivariate risk aversion are studied. After a decision, a group will recive a payoff which must be devided among the members of the group itself: properties of the group utility functions and the sharing rule are investigated in connection with individual and collective risk aversion, under different assumptions concerning the form of the group utility function.
    Notes: Abstract In questo lavoro si studia l'impatto che l'avversione al rischio multivariata ha in un problema di decisione di gruppo, note le misure di avversione al rischio relative alle funzioni di utilità dei singoli individui. Supponendo che tali funzioni siano aggregate in accordo al principio di Pareto e che ad ogni decisione di gruppo sia associato un profitto che deve essere suddiviso tra gli individui del gruppo stesso, si analizzazo i legami tra l'avversione al rischio degli individui e quella del gruppo, soprattutto nei casi in cui le funzioni di utilità sono additive e multilineari.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 31-39 
    ISSN: 1129-6569
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Questo lavoro presenta il problema teorico dell'approssimazione di Kmenta alla funzione di produzione CES attraverso la ricerca degli insiemi in cui l'approssimazione è per eccesso e di quelli in cui l'approssimazione è per difetto e la valutazione dell'errore di approssimazione dal punto di vista dell'analisi numerica.
    Notes: Abstract The paper presents the theoretical problem of Kmenta's approximation to CES production function and studies it from the point of view of numerical analysis. Intervals of overestimation, of underestimation and limitations for the approximation error are obtained.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 5 (1982), S. 25-30 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Riassunto Questo lavoro presenta un'interpretazione statistica in termini di medie di potenza dell'indice di disuguaglianza di Atkinson e fornisce una scomposizione di detto indice in una quota che misura la disuguaglianza tra gruppi ed una quota che misura quella all'interno dei gruppi. Si dimostrano alcuni teoremi relativi alla misura decomposta nelle sue due componenti sopraindicate.
    Notes: Abstract The paper contains a statistical interpretation and an interesting decomposition of the inequality index due to Atkinson.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 45-52 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract The optimal risk fraction to be assumed by an individual acting following the expected utility principle is studied. Special attention is devoted to the case of exponential utility function.
    Notes: Abstract Si studia il problema della quota ottima di rischio che un individuo ha convenienza ad assumere, o ad assicurare, in relazione alla propria funzione di utilità; con particolare riguardo al caso in cui tale utilità sia rappresentata da una funzione esponenziale.
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    Decisions in economics and finance 7 (1984), S. 79-93 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract If a functionf is used to probe the distribution ofX+Y for independent random variablesX andY, it is convenient to determine the expectation off(X+Y) from expectations off(X) andf(Y) separately. Formally, it is necessary to consider those functionsf for which there exists a functionT such that: (1) $$E(f(X + Y)) = T(E(f(X)),E(f(Y)))$$ for all independent random variablesX andY defined onA⊑R. This work purports to study the functions ψ(X, Y) for which equation (1) is satisfied. Therefore we determine the functionsf continuous and strictly monotonic and ψ for which there exists a convenient functionT such that: (2) $$E(f(\psi (X,Y))) = T(E(f(X)),E(f(Y)))$$ for all independent random variablesX andY defined onA⊑R. Equation (2) has solutions if and only if the operations ψ(x, y) admit the representation $$\psi (x,y) = h_0 ^{ - 1} (h_0 (x) + h_0 (y))\forall x,y \in A \subseteq R$$ whereh 0 (x) is a continuous and strictly monotonic function defined onA, closed in range with respect to the addition operation. The solution of the problem is given by the following functions (under some suitable conditions) $$\begin{array}{*{20}c} {f(x) = ch_0 (x) + T_{00} withT_{00} arbitraryconstant} \\ {f(x) = a + b\exp (ch_0 (x))withb \ne 0} \\ \end{array}$$ For eachf solving equation (2),T is respectively: $$\begin{array}{*{20}c} {T(x,y) = x + y + T_{00} } \\ {T(x,y) = a + (x - a)(y - a)/bwitha = - T_{10} /T_{11} ,b = 1/T_{11} } \\ \end{array}$$ The functional equation (2) is used to determine the kernel of some integral transforms and to characterize exponential, Pareto and Weibull distributions
    Notes: Abstract In questa nota si studia una equazione funzionale che ha interessanti applicazioni al Calcolo delle Probabilità. Si illustrano due possibilità applicative: (i) la scelta del nucleo delle trasformate integrali; (ii) la caratterizzazione di opportune classi di variabili casuali.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 302-320 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Der Argumentationszusammenhang der im Titel genannten Schrift von König, welche Erziehungswissenschaft als praktische Disziplin von Grund auf revidieren und neu aufbauen soll, wird dargestellt, das Gesamtwerk dann aber einer eingehenden Kritik unterzogen. Dabei wird nachgewiesen, daß die Begründung oberster Normen bei König zirkelhaft ist. Außerdem wird auf eine Reihe von Unklarheiten und Verwechslungen begrifflicher Art, sowie auf Unkorrektheiten formaler Art hingewiesen. Vor allem aber wird deutlich gemacht, daß König sich viele Schwierigkeiten und Unklarheiten durch die kritiklose Übernahme der Lehren der Erlanger Schule eingehandelt hat.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 321-331 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung Verfasser behandelt die Frage, ob die Naturwissenschaften ihre gegenwärtige Hauptfunktion, die Lieferung technikrelevanter Erkenntnisse, wirksamer als bisher erfüllen könnten, wenn sie sich nicht nur während revolutionärer Perioden, sondern ununterbrochen theoretisch pluralistisch entwickeln würden. Zuerst wird gezeigt, warum die Naturwissenschaften unter der Forderung nach maximaler Effektivität stehen, anschließend, daß diese Forderung durch einander abwechselnde pluralistische und nichtpluralistische Entwicklungsphasen in höherem Grade erfüllt wird als durch eine permanent pluralistische Entwicklung. Daraus wird geschlossen, daß eine Ersetzung der bisherigen Entwicklungsdynamik in den Naturwissenschaften durch eine permanent pluralistische wenig Realisierungschancen hat. Mit Hilfe der Effektivitätsforderung wird ferner erklärt, warum auch während evolutionärer Perioden in einem gewissen Ausmaß theoretischer Pluralismus besteht, insbesondere, warum in der Praxis neue Theorien bei Mißerfolgen nicht strikt eliminiert werden, sondern Bewährungsfristen erhalten.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 332-346 
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    Notes: Summary A. Vagueness is not definable in terms of behaviour (Section 4). B. Variations in the application of a term T is neither sufficient nor necessary conditions for T to be vague. Nor are such variations an indication — a loose criterion — for vagueness (Section 3). C. That Black's and Hempel's theories contain negations of A and B as central theses. They are therefore irredeemably false.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 354-356 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es wird begründet, daß die Konstruktion des Kartenparadoxons von Kerridge auf einer fehlerhaften Betrachtungsweise beruht. Eine genauere Analyse zeigt, daß das Kerridge-Argument mit dem Hackingschen Likelihood-Stützungsargument im Einklang steht.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 12 (1981), S. 353-363 
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    Notes: Summary The complex of ‚lysenkoism‘ cannot satisfyingly be explained as a pure and internal marxist tradition and reception. A necessary external addition has to consider the social history of the Soviet Union, her political economy, and the development of her scientific history. Hence, a more adequate connection to the ‚stalinist‘ epoch can be drawn.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 12 (1981), S. 364-400 
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    Notes: Summary My concern in what follows is to give a comparative report on some important lectures held at the Hegel-Kongreß 1981 in Stuttgart. In discussing the views of Quine, Hacking, Davidson, Putnam and Habermas I want to confront them with some details of Rorty's recent critique of our philosophical tradition. At last I try to give a tentative answer whether there is an end or a turning-point for current analytical philosophy.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 12 (1981), S. 401-412 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 13 (1982), S. 70-83 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung Der Geschichte des Begriffs des Naturgesetzes, besonders den Umständen seiner Durchsetzung, wird der systematische Hinweis entnommen, daß die generellen Sätze der Physik methodisch primär von Apparaten gelten. Daraus ergeben sich Gesichtspunkte für eine Hierarchisierung physikalischer Sätze. Eine technik-orientierte Deutung der Physik läßt dann auch die ökologische Dimension physikalischer Forschung in einem kritischeren Licht erscheinen.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 13 (1982), S. 48-69 
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    Notes: Summary The paper's aim is to contribute to a better understanding of Weber's methodology by clarifying the difference of Weber's concept ofVerstehen from Dilthey's concept ofVerstehen, and by answering the question of how Weber's claim to objectivity of hisVerstehende Soziologie is compatible with his claim that the specific method of hisVerstehende Soziologie, the idealtypical construction, is empirically irrefutable. My thesis is that there are three classes of ideal types in Weber: concepts of ‚historical individuals‘, concepts of ‚objective possibilities‘ and idealtypical classifying concepts. Common to them is the end to grasp the individual character of a social phenomenon. Their different functions in realizing this end justify to describe Weber'sVerstehende Soziologie as a system, in which social phenomena are presented as if they were the result of conscious human decisions.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 13 (1982), S. 166-173 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 13 (1982), S. 234-279 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die Wissenschaftstheorie hat sich in der Vergangenheit hauptsächlich mit dem Aufbau und der Analyse wissenschaftlicher Theorien und den logischen Problemen in ihrem eigenen Gebiet beschäftigt, während Probleme der Wissenschaftspraxis, hier vor allem die theoretischen Grundlagen des Messens, nur am Rande oder gar nicht behandelt wurden. Dies ist insofern bemerkenswert, weil die Messung das wichtigste erfahrungswissenschaftliche Hilfsmittel zur Gewinnung von Erkenntnis darstellt. Beim Messen erfolgt der wichtige Übergang vom Empirischen zum Formalen, indem die empirisch vorliegende Intensität einer Meßgröße durch eine mathematische Größe beschrieben und damit überhaupt erst die Voraussetzung für eine erfahrungswissenschaftliche Theorie geschaffen wird. Die vorliegende Meßtheorie ist in Meßprozeßtheorie, Metrisierungstheorie und Fehlertheorie gegliedert. Die Meßprozeßtheorie behandelt die Vorgänge zwischen Meßobjekt und Meßgerät, die Metrisierungstheorie die Darstellung der empirischen Größe als formale und die Fehlertheorie die Schätzung des gesuchten wahren Wertes aus mehreren fehlerbehafteten gleichwertigen Meßwerten. Der Schätzwert ist das Endergebnis einer Messung. Ziel der Arbeit ist es, die Meßtheorie aus dem engen Kreis der Metrisierungs- bzw. Skalentheorie herauszulösen und auf die häufig übersehenen notwendigen Bedingungen einer Messung aufmerksam zu machen.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 14 (1983), S. 15-23 
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    Notes: Summary Imagination can be seen 1) as a mental faculty common to all people to some degree and 2) as an important principle in literary theory. We must think of imagination not as a simple power but a complex series of processes, involving the impression-idea-relationship and memory. The data derived thus are still bound to their epistemological context, and only imagination provides the possibility to transcend the space-time-determination and the cause-effect-relationship, so that it allows a freer display of the sense-data. This structural and functional analysis of imagination tries to show its immense importance in everyday-life as well as in literary production and reception.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 14 (1983), S. 24-45 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es werden die Veränderungen der Wissenschaftssprache der Physik untersucht, die durch den Übergang von der klassisch-relativistischen Physik zur Quantenphysik erfolgt sind. Die neuen und prinzipiellen Beschränkungen der Möglichkeiten der Überprüfung wissenschaftlicher Aussagen führen zu Reduktionen der hypothetischen Annahmen, die der Sprache der klassischen Physik zu Grunde liegen. Diese Reduktionen haben ihrerseits Abschwächungen der syntaktischen Strukturen zur Folge, die besonders in der formalen Logik und der Modallogik deutlich werden. Diese auf (gegenüber der klassisch-physikalischen Sprache) schwächeren Prämissen basierenden Strukturen sind die Quanten-Logik und die Quanten-Modallogik, die damit auch einen weiteren Geltungsbereich besitzen als die entsprechenden klassischen formalen Systeme.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 161-169 
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    Notes: Summary Reporting on the 7th International Congress of Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science, first the main topics and some organisational aspects of the congress are presented; the main part of the report focuses on recent developments in Philosophical Logic (Section 5), in particular the theory of so-called generalized quantifiers as presented at the congress. In addition, some background information on logical language analysis, its possible applications and consequences is provided.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 188-196 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 170-187 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 196-198 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 199-199 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 278-298 
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    Notes: Summary The purpose of this paper is to inquire whether the paradigma-approach, developed by Thomas S. Kuhn, is able to serve as a useful instrument for the analysis of the dynamics of economic theory. The first part contains a discussion of the rational reconstruction of Kuhns idea, which was formulated by Sneed and Stegmüller. This discussion centers around the question, whether rationality alone can be the only criterion for scientific work. In order to introduce the specific conditions under which economic science takes place, the paradigma-approach has to be extended. This extension has to take account of the non-scientific determination of scientific work. In this connection normal science and scientific revolutions have a concrete function in a process in the course of which non-scientific claims are transformed into scientific norms.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 164-193 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung In den letzten anderthalb Jahrhunderten ist die bedeutende Entfaltung der Geistewissenschaften in den deutschsprechenden Ländern maßgeblich durch jene Universitätsreform ermöglicht worden, die mit dem Namen Humboldts verknüpft wird. Seit den sechziger Jahren nimmt man auch in der Bundesrepublik von dieser Universität Abschied; die jetzige Hochschulgesetzgebung setzt auch eine äußerliche Zäsur. Zugleich setzt sich auch im Bereich geisteswissenschaftlicher Arbeit bei Basisaufgaben wie der Materialsammlung und der Edition die „Forschung“ durch, das heißt die langfristig organisierte und institutionell abgesicherte wissenschaftliche Tätigkeit. Im politischen wie im kirchlichen Bereich wird die unmittelbare Weitergabe und Darstellung von Tradition immer stärker entmächtigt, und so können wissenschaftlich distanzierte, kompensatorische Hinweise auf Tradition — etwa in den großen kulturhistorischen Ausstellungen — Bedeutung bekommen. Eine Forschungspolitik wird auch gegenüber den Geisteswissenschaften nötig, die ihre Grenzen kennt und die geisteswissenschaftliche Arbeit, die in ihrem Kern Individualforschung war und bleiben muß, nicht durch Übertragung unangemessener forschungspolitischer Direktiven aus anderen wissenschaftlichen Bereichen stört.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 254-275 
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    Notes: Summary In this article three dramas, quite subjectively picked out of the extensive literature, in which scientists play an important part and science constitutes a main subject, are analysed to find out, what are the underlying and implicit epistemological ideas.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 213-237 
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    Notes: Summary The present paper constitutes an elaboration of a previous work by one of us which, among other things, proposed some modifications of Popper's tetradic schema. Here, in the first part, we consider critically and develop further these modifications and elaborate on methods which prove more satisfactory for the mapping of the problem solving processes in Physics. We also find the opportunity to make some comments on Physics and on its relation to Mathematics. In the second part, there is an attempt to test the above ideas on the genesis and development of the Special Relativity Theory. In doing this, we concentrate mainly on Einstein's 1905 paper and try to explicitate its relation with the situation Physics found itself in that period as well as to clarify the epistemological status of Einstein's two postulates.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 276-291 
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    Notes: Summary The paper presents a technical analysis of the notion of analogy by means of the notion of conceptual similarity (the inverse of distance). The main idea is to elucidate the analogy (similarity) between predicates (properties) in terms of the higher-order predicates they share or fail to share. The notions of predicate-similarity and theory-similarity (defined as the inverse of theory-distance) are then combined to give an analysis of the analogy between conceptual systems.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 238-253 
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    Notes: Summary In establishing what he called the “metaphysics of science”, the French naturalist Buffon was confronted with the problem of situating the place occupied by man in the natural world, a problem which ultimately depended on discerning his true nature. The paradox of Descartes' dualism offered various solutions — the extremes being, either to condemn man's material nature as corrupted in order to exalt his spiritual nature as a moral being, as Pascal had done, or to reduce man's pretended spiritual nature to nothing more than a manifestation of his material organization, the solution of La Mettrie. Buffon could accept neither, proves man's duality, and proceeds to establish his gnoseological principle on his critique of these two radical solutions.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 11 (1980), S. 385-418 
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 12 (1981), S. 303-321 
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    Notes: Zusammenfassung Gegen den Vorwurf, die sprachanalytische Philosophie sei einzelsprachlich relativ oder provinziell, haben sich die sprachanalytischen Philosophen mit mindestens vier Argumenten erfolgreich gewehrt: (I) Den Vertretern derphilosophischen Grammatik geht es zwar um die einzelsprachliche Grammatik bestimmter Ausdrücke; aber um eben diese Grammatik muß es ihnen auch gehen, da philosophische Probleme aus dem Getäuschtsein durch die Grammatik entstehen. Nicht nur die Problemlösung, sondern auch die Problemstellung ist provinziell. (II) Den Vertretern derlinguistischen Phänomenologie geht es um die Unterscheidung und Ordnung von Phänomenen. Weil sie dabei die Sprache und ihre Distinktionen bloß als heuristisches Mittel gebrauchen, haben ihre Aussagen die gleiche Reichweite wie die Ergebnisse einer mundan-phänomenologischen Analyse. (III) Den Vertretern derinformalen Logik geht es um die Logik bestimmter Begriffe und Propositionen. Die Explikation der Logik dieser Begriffe und Propositionen hat Gültigkeit für den gesamten Bereich, in dem eben diese Begriffe und Propositionen ‘verbalisierbar’ sind. (IV) Den Vertretern derSprechakttheorie schließlich geht es um die Regeln, denen Sprechakte gehorchen. Die Analyse dieser Regeln gilt für alle diejenigen Sprachen bzw. Gesellschaften, in denen es die Institution des betreffenden Sprechakts gibt.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 14 (1983), S. 185-212 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 14 (1983), S. 234-272 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Summary As a logical consequence of recent developments in the philosophy of science the concept of rationality has lost much of its impact. It seems that the rationality of methodological decisions in science can be defined no longer in an absolute sense but only in relation to a given context and in hindsight. This failure of methodology in assessing once and for all the rights and wrongs of scientific decisions is taken as a clue for reanalyzing the strategical intervention-points of methodological norms. It is shown that relativism and irrationalism are to be avoided by not cutting the process of scientific investigation into intrinsically different portions: context of justification and context of discovery. This dichotomy opens a logical and psychological gap between different stages of scientific evolution that the idea of comparing factual contents or degrees of justification is no longer able to bridge. In two case studies, the development of modern science in the 16th and 17th centuries and the development of special and general realtivity it is shown that the dichotomy is inherently implausibel. But if it is possible to analyze the context of justification (criticism) and the context of discovery in same terms, the logical (and psychological) chain of reasoning is closed. This problem-shift defies both irrationalism and relativism and leads to a different view of scientific progress as an increase of information-processing capacity that can be measured by a certain set of indicators radically different from the received one.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 14 (1983), S. 292-319 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Zusammenfassung In Sachen Funktionalanalyse befaßte man sich in der allgemeinen Wissenschaftstheorie anfänglich überwiegend mit der Logik funktionaler Erklärungen. Diese bedarf einer Ergänzung durch eine Semantik der Funktionalanalyse. Nach einer einleitenden Erörterung einiger Schwachpunkte und Grenzen der klassischen Literatur zur Logik der Funktionalanalyse wird eine Wortfeldanalyse von ‘Funktion’ und ‘System’ sowie eine phänomenologische Beschreibung der Wirkungsweise von Motiven angeboten. Im Unterschied zu Zielen, die man nur Entitäten zuschreibt, die als selbständig angesehen werden, spricht man (in nichtmetaphorischer Weise) Funktionen nur Entitäten zu, die als nichtselbständig angesehen werden, die jedoch mit ihrer Funktion bezogen sind auf eine solche zielorientierte selbständige Entität.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 14 (1983), S. 320-337 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Summary Attempts to justify statements or norms lead into the well-known trilemma infinite regress, circular reasoning, dogmatism. Apel's transformed transcendental philosophy is to avoid this problem. A recent version of it is examined. It admits fallibilism to be valid with empirical hypotheses but claims it to be contradictory if applied to philosophical theses on conditions of the possibility of knowledge and argumentation. This claim is refuted. The proposed “final justification” is to start not with what is certain but with doubt. Reflection on the conditions of the possibility of meaningful doubting is to show a borderline beyond which undoubtable certainties are to be found. Such certainties are the rules of argumentation. Whoever utters “The rules of argumentation are not valid in my case” is said to make a necessarily false statement. This line of argument is even carried over to the justification of absolutely binding metanorms of a normative ethics of communication. The whole procedure of “final justification” is shown to be faulty.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 1-21 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Summary The philosophical implications associated with the choice of a particular geometry required for the formulation of a dynamics at subnuclear distances are discussed. A dualism between geometry and matter — the former identified with a fiber bundle of Cartan type raised over space-time, the latter represented by a generalized quantum mechanical wave function — is presented as a possible framework for the dynamics of strongly interacting particles at distances of 10−13 cm.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 34-71 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Summary The idea of man imitating by his own inventions capacities, considered genuinely human, like talking, making music or thinking, has fascinated man's phantasy at all times. The present article analyzes in the light of philosophy of science some of the attempts to tackle this idea in fields as dissimilar as philosophy, mechanics (cybernetics included), and literature, and it tries to lay bare connexions existing and to describe the history of the influence of this idea. The investigation begins with the 17th century mechanistic materialism and it extends to recent research in „artifical intelligence“.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 72-91 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Summary Influenced by the account of K. Popper and, moreover, of C. G. Hempel and P. Oppenheim, it is generally assumed, that a prediction can be logically deduced from hypotheses, i. e. lawlike propositions, and initial conditions. It is not clear, in which respect a prediction can correctly be supposed to be a proposition which is either true or false. From a logical point of view, serious difficulties arise in assuming that the deductive-nomological model consists of a valid argument. Further objections to this account are developed with regard to lawlike propositions. Since a lawlike proposition is — by definition — not true or definitely true, but only supposed to be true, it cannot function as a true premise among other true premises for the purpose of deduction. Special difficulties arise with regard to predictions: A predictive argument does not give any reason for the truth of the predictionK, but only — if at all — for the prediction of the truth ofK. In the latter case, the “conclusion”K clearly does not consist of a proposition (which could be either true or false) but rather of a predicting proposition.
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    Journal for general philosophy of science 15 (1984), S. 92-121 
    ISSN: 1572-8587
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Philosophy , Nature of Science, Research, Systems of Higher Education, Museum Science
    Notes: Summary In the first part of this contribution, the three probably most influential conceptions of evolutionary epistemology are surveyed, as they were put forward by Konrad Lorenz, Gerhard Vollmer, and Rupert Riedl, respectively. It is demonstrated that, as far as the essentials are concerned, these conceptions largely correspond with each other as well as with a further conception advanced by Karl Popper from the point of view of Critical Rationalism. It can be clearly shown, moreover, that fundamentals of the latter conception can be traced back to Popper's earliest publications (e. g., to hisLogik der Forschung [The Logic of Scientific Discovery]). By means of an examination of the language used by these authors, it is tried to elucidate the fact that, for the reasons of lacking consideration of the lingual/non-lingual distinction and of faults and inadequacies in consequence of this lack alone, the proposed conceptions can be rejected as being at least highly defective.
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