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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 16 (1988), S. 33-52 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Artificial intelligence ; collective learning systems theory ; machine learning ; massively parallel architectures ; parallel distributed processing ; data flow architectures
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The classical approach to the acquisition of knowledge in artificial intelligence has been to program the intelligence into the machine in the form of specific rules for the application of the knowledge: expert systems. Unfortunately, the amount of time and resources required to program an expert system with sufficient knowledge for non-trivial problem-solving is prohibitively large. An alternative approach is to allow the machine tolearn the rules based upon trial-and-error interaction with the environment, much as humans do. This will require endowing the machine with a sophisticated set of sensors for the perception of the external world, the ability to generate trial actions based upon this perceived information, and a dynamic evaluation policy to allow it to measure the effectiveness of its trial actions and modify its repertoire accordingly. The principles underlying this paradigm, known ascollective learning systems theory, have already been applied to sophisticated gaming problems, demonstrating robust learning and dynamic adaptivity. The fundamental building block of a collective learning system is thelearning cell, which may be embedded in a massively parallel, hierarchical data communications network. Such a network comprising 100 million learning cells will approach the intelligence capacity of the human cortex. In the not-too-distant future, it may be possible to build a race of robotic slaves to perform a wide variety of tasks in our culture. This goal, while irresistibly attractive, is most certainly fraught with severe social, political, moral, and economic difficulties.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 12 (1988), S. 85-108 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Artificial intelligence ; knowledge-based systems ; opportunistic search ; scheduling ; planning
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a search for more efficient yet effective ways of solving combinatorially complex problems such as jobshop scheduling, we move towards opportunistic approaches that attempt to exploit the structure of a given problem. Rather than adhere to a single problem-solving plan, such approaches are characterized by almost continual surveillance of the current problem-solving state to possibly modify plans so that activity is consistently directed toward those actions that currently seem most promising. Opportunistic behavior may occur in problem decomposition down to selective application of scheduling heuristics. We developed and performed limited testing of a scheduling system, called OPIS 0, that exhibits such behavior to some extent. The results are encouraging when compared to ISIS and a dispatching system. It is believed that such opportunistic views of scheduling would lead to systems that allow more flexibility in terms of designing scheduling procedures and supporting the scheduling function.
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 15 (1988), S. 353-376 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Artificial intelligence ; FMS scheduling ; heuristic search ; pattern-directed inference
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Scheduling in flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) must take into account the shorter lead time, the multiprocessing environment, and the dynamically changing states. In this paper, a pattern-directed approach is presented which incorporates a nonlinear planning method developed in the artificial intelligence field. The scheduling system described here is knowledge-based and utilizes both forward-and backward-chaining for generating schedules (treated as state-space plans). The pattern-directed approach is dynamically adjustable and thus can handle scheduling requirements unique to the FMS environment, such as dynamic scheduling, failure-recovery scheduling, or prioritized scheduling for meeting deadlines.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 5-35 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: Ambiguity ; expected utility ; insurance ; risk ; subjective probability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a series of experiments, economically sophisticated subjects, including professional actuaries, priced insurance both as consumers and as firms under conditions of ambiguity. Findings support implications of the Einhorn-Hogarth ambiguity model: (1) For low probability-of-loss events, prices of both consumers and firms indicated aversion to ambiguity; (2) As probabilities of losses increased, aversion to ambiguity decreased, with consumers exhibiting ambiguity preference for high probability-of-loss events; and (3) Firms showed greater aversion to ambiguity than consumers. The results are shown to be incompatible with traditional economic analysis of insurance markets and are discussed with respect to the effects of ambiguity on the supply and demand for insurance.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 235-263 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: risk ; expected utility ; irrationality ; prospect theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article develops a variant of the expected utility model termed prospective reference theory. Although the standard model occurs as a limiting case, the general approach is that individuals treat stated experimental probabilities as imperfect information. This model is applied to a wide variety of aberrant phenomena, including the Allais paradox, the overweighting of low-probability events, the existence of premiums for certain elimination of risks, and the representativeness heuristic. The prospective reference theory model predicts most of the observed behavioral patterns rather than being potentially reconcilable with such phenomena.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Computational economics 2 (1989), S. 37-48 
    ISSN: 1572-9974
    Keywords: Artificial intelligence ; class prefabrication ; environments ; knowledge management ; objectoriented framework ; software integration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Computer Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Various techniques for computer-based knowledge representation and processing are widely used in management and economics. Other techniques such as rules and demons have arisen in the artificial intelligence field. These too can be useful in managerial and economics settings. A major issue is how to effectively employ multiple traditional and artificial intelligence techniques when working on a problem. In this paper, we examine the various knowledge management techniques with respect to their applicability to handling distinct types of knowledge. An object-oriented framework is presented as a basis for the unified and coordinated treatment of multiple knowledge management techniques in a single environment. Using this framework, two approaches are identified for delivering these techniques to a knowledge worker: skeletal environments and furnished environments.
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 24 (1988), S. 169-200 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision theory ; risk ; expected utility ; security level ; risk aversion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The particular attention paid by decision makers to the security level ensured by each decision under risk, which is responsible for the certainty effect, can be taken into account by weakening the independence and continuity axioms of expected utility theory. In the resulting model, preferences depend on: (i) the security level, (ii) the expected utility, offered by each decision. Choices are partially determined by security level comparison and completed by the maximization of a function, which express the existing tradeoffs between expected utility and security level, and is, at a given security level, an affine function of the expected utility. In the model, risk neutrality at a given security level implies risk aversion.
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 263-293 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: utility ; risk ; value ; game theory ; consequences ; Bayesian
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, a problem for utility theory - that it would have an agent who was compelled to play “Russian Roulette’ with one revolver or another, to pay as much to have a six-shooter with four bullets relieved of one bullet before playing with it, as he would be willing to pay to have a six-shooter with two bullets emptied - is reviewed. A less demanding Bayesian theory is described, that would have an agent maximize expected values of possible total consequence of his actions. And utility theory is located within that theory as valid for agents who satisfy certain formal conditions, that is, for agents who are, in terms of that more general theory, indifferent to certain dimensions of ‘risk’. Raiffa- and Savage-style arguments for its more general validity are then resisted. Addenda are concerned with implications for game theory, and relations between ‘utilities’ and ‘values’.
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