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  • Articles  (13)
  • simulation  (6)
  • TERESA project  (4)
  • reliability  (3)
  • 1985-1989  (13)
  • 1950-1954
  • Geography  (13)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Stochastic analysis of estuarine hydraulics (1989)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 71-84 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydraulics ; quasilinearization ; simulation ; stochastic ; estuarine system ; Monte Carlo methods ; random differential equations ; parameter uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A new methodology is presented for the solution of the stochastic hydraulic equations characterizing steady, one-dimensional estuarine flow. The methodology is predicated on quasi-linearization, perturbation methods, and the finite difference approximation of the stochastic differential operators. Assuming Manning's roughness coefficient is the principal source of uncertainty in the model, stochastic equations are presented for the water depths and flow rates in the estuarine system. Moment equations are developed for the mean and variance of the water depths. The moment equations are compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The results confirm that for any spatial location in the estuary that (1) as the uncertainty in the channel roughness increases, the uncertainty in mean depth increases, and (2) the predicted mean depth will decrease with increasing uncertainty in Manning'sn. The quasi-analytical approach requires significantly less computer time than Monte Carlo simulations and provides explicit
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544073
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Analysis of input data and seismic hazard assessment for the low seismicity area ‘Belgium, The Netherlands and NW Germany’ (1989)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 349-362 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: TERESA project ; seismic hazard assessment ; Belgium ; The Netherlands ; NW Germany ; catalogue analysis ; seismotectonic zones ; zone parameters ; uncertainties
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract From the earthquake catalogue of the region of interest 2–8°E, 49–52°N, only events with intensity 〉 3 are considered. The fore/aftershocks and the induced seismicity are removed. The completeness and other properties of the remaining data set are investigated. The seismic data, as well as the geological, tectonic, and other geophysical data of the area are used for the determination of the seismotectonic zones. For each zone, the cumulative intensity-frequency relation (taking into account the completeness of the catalogue), the attenuation depending on the direction, the upper bound of intensity and the average depth are calculated. When the seismic activity is changing within a zone, this zone is divided into subzones with an almost constant activity and a b value equal to the value of the whole zone. When necessary for each subzone, a different attenuation coefficient can be used, to take into account more regional effects. Then the seismic hazard is assessed with the modified McGuire program. Annual probability versus intensity for several sites and hazard intensity and probability maps are calculated. Finally, an error discussion of the whole procedure for one test site is given.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00127321
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Real-time application of an oil spill movement prediction system (1989)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 31-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Oil spill ; pollution ; simulation ; Canada ; emergency
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the prediction, in real time, of the motion of experimental oil slicks. The experiments were conducted during September 1983 offshore near Halifax on the east coast of Canada. The objectives of the experiments were (i) to determine the suitability of oil spill dispersants as countermeasures and (ii) the testing and verification of oil spill trajectory models and systems. The Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) participated in the experiments to test the capability of its oil spill motion prediction system in providing real-time trajectory forecasts. The experiment consisted of three sets of spills. Each set had a control slick and a test slick. Sixteen barrels of crude oil were used in each spill. The test slicks were used to test the effectiveness of various dispersants, the control slicks were used to verify trajectory forecasts. The spill trajectories and oil weathering information obtained from the system during the experiments demonstrated the relative ease with which the system could handle the required input and provide timely forecasts. The accuracy of these forecast trajectories was confirmed by observations, and their utility was demonstrated by their application in the operational decision-making process.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00124756
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Seismic hazard computations for regions with low earthquake activity — A case study for the Belgium, The Netherlands and NW Germany area (1989)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 229-236 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: TERESA project ; seismic hazard ; comparison of algorithms ; low earthquake activity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The algorithms to evaluate seismic hazard, used and/or developed by five teams participating in the TERESA project, applied to the low seismicity area ‘Belgium, The Netherlands and NW Germany’ are compared. The main differences in the results can be explained by the majority criterion of Egozcue et al. (1989), the differences in the upper bound and zonification and, in some cases, by a higher attenuation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00127314
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Assessment of seismic hazard for the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy — A summary (1989)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 217-228 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; Sannio-Matese ; TERESA project ; European Seismological Commission
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The working group on ‘Test Regions for Evaluation of Methods for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe (TERESA)’, consisted of 15 members from 10 different European countries. Methods and experience gathered in these countries have been compared and discussed for two test areas in Europe: the Sannio-Matese region, Southern Italy, with high seismic activity, and the border region between Belgium, The Netherlands, and Federal Republic of Germany, with low activity. This paper summarizes the results for one of the test areas, Sannio-Matese. Most of the participants used statistical procedures to assess earthquake hazard, receiving results in terms of probability of occurrence for intensity as the ground-motion parameter. It was found that careful preparation of input data and parameters is the major influencing factor, therefore most of the efforts of the working group was devoted to this task. The scatter of the obtained results of the group is considerable, mainly because of the uncertainties in the data and the subjectiveness involved in the procedures. For better control of both factors, more objective methods have to be developed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00127313
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique (1989)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 249-265 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Bayesian method ; seismic hazard uncertainty ; Sannio-Matese ; northern Rhine region ; TERESA project
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models. The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals. It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00127316
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulation of the time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over USA (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 281-294 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: precipitation field ; stochastic time-space evolution ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over U S A is simulated in a stochastic setting as outlined in Kavvas et al. (1988). The birth of a cyclonic storm is characterized by the simultaneous birth of a cyclone center and births of subsynoptic precipitation areas (SPA) at preferred locations around the cyclone center. The precipitation cores and cells which are used as the fundamental building blocks of the SPAs are approximated by circular precipitation areas (CPA) of different sizes. The time space evolution of the precipitation field after the birth is governed by (1) the movement of the synoptic cyclone described by the cyclone center trajectory, (2) independent nonidentically distributed random velocities of the individual CPAs relative to the cyclone center, (3) the births of new CPAs in time and space relative to the cyclone center, (4) the independent evolution in time of the individual spatially uniform intensities of the existing CPAs, (5) the expansion and shrinkage of the existing CPAs in the course of movement and (6) the dissipation (death) of a random number of existing CPAs within the cyclonic system. The computer simulation, the results of which are presented in this paper, successfully reproduced the general mesoscale and synoptic scale features of the radar detected cyclonic rain fields as observed by Austin and Houze (1972), Houze et al. (1976), Hobbs (1978), Hobbs and Locatelli (1978), Houze (1981), Houze and Hobbs (1982) and others.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544041
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulation of the movement and dispersion of oil slicks in the Arabian Gulf (1988)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 1 (1988), S. 197-219 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Arabian Gulf ; oil ; oil ; simulation ; meteorology ; tides ; residual currents
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The extensive oil drilling and transportation activities in the Arabian Gulf increased the possibility of oil spills and the consequent threat of oil pollution to the regional ecology. The available literature concerning the main aspects of the physical oceanographic characteristics affecting the movement and spreading of oil spill in the Gulf are reviewed. It is concluded that evaporation, wind-driven currents, and sandfall are important as weathering processes, while tidal currents cause lateral spreading of the slick. Oil spill modelling has shown some usefulness in estimating the trajectories of few major spills illustrated by reference to three models developed for the Gulf. The performance of these models, their capabilities and limitations are reviewed. Recommendations are made to gather more data on the behavior of oil spills in this particular environment.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00126615
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A realistic linear decision rule for reservoir management (1988)
    Springer
    Water resources management 2 (1988), S. 21-34 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Stochastic programming ; linear programming ; objective function ; synthetic streamflow ; reliability ; skewed ; random variable ; spill ; release ; storage ; free board
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract A generalized linear decision rule is presented which takes into account the aspect of spill in a multi-lag LDR model. The proposed rule incorporates past inflow experience to determine the optimum release rules based on a stochastic (linear) programming optimization model. It also prescribes a procedure of determining spill, should it occur, and the method of adjusting the release policy, accordingly, for the subsequent periods, which are directly affected by the spill of the current period. The use of the rule also makes it possible to produce a specification for a reservoir with a smaller capacity by taking liberal constraints on the reservoir freeboard during the monsoon months. The problem is solved, for the purpose of illustration, using the historical data of a river located in central India. Two synthetic streamflow series of a duration of 50 years each are generated under lognormal flow assumption. The prescribed release rules are applied to a hypothetical reservoir with the optimum capacity determined by the linear programming method, and the generated series as the inflow. The results and findings are quite satisfactory.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00421928
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Irrigated agricultural expansion planning in developing countries: Performance vs. resilience vs. reliability (1988)
    Springer
    Water resources management 2 (1988), S. 87-102 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Performance ; resilience ; reliability ; developing countries ; agricultural planning ; investment scheduling ; income redistribution ; trade-off
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The conflict between performance measured in terms of economic and income redistribution objectives, resilience and reliability of irrigated agricultural expansions in developing countries is investigated via a planning framework consisting of three sequential optimization models. The first model determines the most economic planning alternatives. The second model examines, in terms of an income redistribution criterion, the social attractiveness of each plan. The third model determines resilience and operating rules of the various alternatives. The planning framework is appled for a hypothetical agricultural expansion on the order of 30 000 hectares based on data from the Nile Delta in Egypt. The trade-off between system performance, reliability and resilience is derived.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00577062
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On a stochastic description of the time-space behaviour of extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields (1987)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 37-52 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Cyclonic precipitation ; mathematical modeling ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A stochastic description is developed for extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields at synoptic and meso scales as they are typically observed by radars over the Earth. This description attempts to account I) for the synoptic scale behavior of a cyclonic storm (its birth, its synoptic scale motion trajectory, and its dissipation) II) for the synoptic-scale organizational structure of subsynoptic precipitation areas (rainbands, precipitation cores and raincells) within a cyclonic storm; and III) for the behavior of subsynoptic precipitation areas, in terms of their births, their spatial configuration evolutions, their motions, and their deaths (dissipation). The precipitation cores and the raincells are taken as the building blocks of the subsynoptic precipitation, areas within a cyclonic rainfield.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543908
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Development and testing of soil water regime simulation models (1987)
    Springer
    Water resources management 1 (1987), S. 293-303 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Soil water regime ; modelling ; simulation ; evapotranspiration ; drainage ; soil water resources ; irrigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Four soil water balance simulation models corresponding to specific soil-crop relations were developed for application to irrigation planning and management. The forms of the models were inferred from 18 months of weekly and bi-weekly soil water data and daily meteorological data. Soil water change is computed by budgeting of the water inputs and outputs, namely precipitation, evapotranspiration, drainage, and runoff. Actual evapotranspiration was found to be dependent on both potential evapotranspiration and soil water content. Empirical drainage functions were developed, but semi-empirical ones inferred from theoretical knowledge of soil hydraulic properties performed at least as well. Runoff functions were required to explain only exceptional conditions of very heavy rainfall. A quantitative assessment of each model's prediction accuracy was performed. The uncertainty that can be expected for any predicted value with a cumulative probability of 0.95 is in all cases within an interval of 1% of the soil water content in average conditions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00421881
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Multi-objective stochastic groundwater management of nonuniform, homogeneous aquifers (1987)
    Springer
    Water resources management 1 (1987), S. 241-254 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Groundwater management ; optimization ; uncertainty analysis ; reliability ; multiple-objective analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Like any other resources planning and management, groundwater management is performed in a stochastic environment in which the system itself involves a number of random elements. Consequences as a result of decisions made based on analyses are not certain. This paper presents a management model using the chance-constrained framework which explicitly considers the random nature of aquifer properties. The model enables the derivation of an optimal groundwater management policy that would satisfy required operation performance reliability. Furthermore, the chance-constrained model is extended to the multi-objective optimization framework in which a tradeoff between total water supply pumpage and system performance reliability is explicitly considered. The models are applied to a hypothetical example of a steady, nonuniform, homogeneous confined aquifer.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00421878
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