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  • Artikel  (6)
  • uncertainty  (6)
  • 1985-1989  (6)
  • 1970-1974
  • 1950-1954
  • 1945-1949
  • Wirtschaftswissenschaften  (6)
  • Sociologie  (3)
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  • Artikel  (6)
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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 189-212 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Schlagwort(e): Risk ; choice ; perception ; control ; adjustment ; uncertainty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Experienced executives frequently try to modify the risky situations they face in order to make them more favorable rather than simply choosing from among available decision options. This article investigates several types of risk adjustments such as trying to influence the situation through bargaining and spending resources, gathering information, developing new options, and consulting one's superiors. A theoretical framework is presented that characterizes different types of adjustments and relates them to variables such as perceived risk, perceived control, perceived responsibility, decisiveness, and risky choice. The framework is tested using experienced decision makers who respond to four simulated risky business decisions.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Schlagwort(e): cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Sociologie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Schlagwort(e): research and development ; resource allocation ; project selection ; uncertainty ; data improvement ; control strategy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Sociologie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper deals with the problem of optimal control of R&D. The fundamental aspects of this problem are viewed as: uncertainty about economic parameters of new technology (or new activity, e.g. a search for new oil fields) explored by a group of parallel projects attempting to make advances in this technology as well as improve economic data; allocation of investments among rival projects under a given total budget; timing of the ultimate selection of new technology (activity) according to the most successful project. The process of data improvement (PDI) is described as a (random) process of reducing the intervals of uncertainty, the rate of data improvement being controlled, in effect, by the investment policy. A stationary dynamic model with infinite horizon of planning and with the criterion of total discounted costs is developed. The model is carefully investigated from the economic point of view, and some new effects are discovered. It is demonstrated that uncertainty may be the source of additional gain; the bigger the initial uncertainty, the bigger the gain may be under optimal control. This effect is based on PDI, the economic background of which is presented as multiplication of the expected gain over time, which is typical for the classical macromodels of economics. Optimal continuous control is constructed at every time moment, and answers to two main questions are given: (1) either to prolong R & D or to make ultimate selection of one project, (2) how to allocate resources among the rival projects in the case of R&D prolongation. The last question is answered on the basis of profitability indices that relate efficiencies of PDI for particular projects to the costs of information.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 99-105 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Schlagwort(e): decision theory ; uncertainty ; betting system ; Dutch book ; belief function
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Sociologie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract By considering situations of partially resolving uncertainty, a one-to-one correspondence between belief functions and coherent betting systems à la de Finetti is shown to exist.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 1 (1988), S. 267-283 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Schlagwort(e): Risk ; uncertainty ; expected utility ; nonlinear preference
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract During the past generation, expected utility theory has been widely accepted as the normative standard for decision making under risk and under uncertainty. However, it is now known that reasonable people often violate its assumptions, and a number of generalizations of the theory have been developed to accommodate some of the more common violations. This essay recalls the origins of expected utility in the early 1700s, notes its axiomatizations on the basis of preference comparisons in the mid-1900s, describes violations of those axioms uncovered since then, outlines new theories stimulated by the violations, and suggests where the field might be headed in the next few decades.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 9 (1987), S. 615-628 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Schlagwort(e): Bayesian paradigm ; Bayes ; statistical inference ; applied probability ; uncertainty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Mathematik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper is based on an invited lecture given by the author at the ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Group on Applied Probability Conference onStatistical and Computational Problems in Probability Modeling, held at Williamsburg, Virginia, January 7–9, 1985. The theme of this paper is twofold. First, that members of the above group should be seriously concerned with issues of statistical inference — they should not stop short upon proposing a probability model. Second, that inference be undertaken via a strict adherence to the rules of probability — the Bayesian paradigm. To underscore a need for emphasizing the first theme, it may be pertinent to note that an overwhelming majority of the papers dealing with statistical and inferential issues that were presented at this conference were authored by members who did not claim to belong to the ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Group on Applied Probability. The lecture was followed by a panel discussion, with Drs. Lyle Broemeling and Edward Wegman of the Office of Naval Research as discussants. Dr. Robert Launer of the Army Research Office served as a moderator. Discussions from the floor included comments by Professors D. Harrington of Harvard University, E. Parzen of Texas A & M University, and R. Smith of Imperial College, London, England. This paper, and the comments of the panelists, are published in this volume of theAnnals of Operations Research, which is going to serve as a Proceedings of the Conference.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
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