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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Stochastic analysis of estuarine hydraulics (1989)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 71-84 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydraulics ; quasilinearization ; simulation ; stochastic ; estuarine system ; Monte Carlo methods ; random differential equations ; parameter uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A new methodology is presented for the solution of the stochastic hydraulic equations characterizing steady, one-dimensional estuarine flow. The methodology is predicated on quasi-linearization, perturbation methods, and the finite difference approximation of the stochastic differential operators. Assuming Manning's roughness coefficient is the principal source of uncertainty in the model, stochastic equations are presented for the water depths and flow rates in the estuarine system. Moment equations are developed for the mean and variance of the water depths. The moment equations are compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The results confirm that for any spatial location in the estuary that (1) as the uncertainty in the channel roughness increases, the uncertainty in mean depth increases, and (2) the predicted mean depth will decrease with increasing uncertainty in Manning'sn. The quasi-analytical approach requires significantly less computer time than Monte Carlo simulations and provides explicit
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544073
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Real-time application of an oil spill movement prediction system (1989)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 31-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Oil spill ; pollution ; simulation ; Canada ; emergency
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the prediction, in real time, of the motion of experimental oil slicks. The experiments were conducted during September 1983 offshore near Halifax on the east coast of Canada. The objectives of the experiments were (i) to determine the suitability of oil spill dispersants as countermeasures and (ii) the testing and verification of oil spill trajectory models and systems. The Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) participated in the experiments to test the capability of its oil spill motion prediction system in providing real-time trajectory forecasts. The experiment consisted of three sets of spills. Each set had a control slick and a test slick. Sixteen barrels of crude oil were used in each spill. The test slicks were used to test the effectiveness of various dispersants, the control slicks were used to verify trajectory forecasts. The spill trajectories and oil weathering information obtained from the system during the experiments demonstrated the relative ease with which the system could handle the required input and provide timely forecasts. The accuracy of these forecast trajectories was confirmed by observations, and their utility was demonstrated by their application in the operational decision-making process.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00124756
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulation of the time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over USA (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 281-294 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: precipitation field ; stochastic time-space evolution ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over U S A is simulated in a stochastic setting as outlined in Kavvas et al. (1988). The birth of a cyclonic storm is characterized by the simultaneous birth of a cyclone center and births of subsynoptic precipitation areas (SPA) at preferred locations around the cyclone center. The precipitation cores and cells which are used as the fundamental building blocks of the SPAs are approximated by circular precipitation areas (CPA) of different sizes. The time space evolution of the precipitation field after the birth is governed by (1) the movement of the synoptic cyclone described by the cyclone center trajectory, (2) independent nonidentically distributed random velocities of the individual CPAs relative to the cyclone center, (3) the births of new CPAs in time and space relative to the cyclone center, (4) the independent evolution in time of the individual spatially uniform intensities of the existing CPAs, (5) the expansion and shrinkage of the existing CPAs in the course of movement and (6) the dissipation (death) of a random number of existing CPAs within the cyclonic system. The computer simulation, the results of which are presented in this paper, successfully reproduced the general mesoscale and synoptic scale features of the radar detected cyclonic rain fields as observed by Austin and Houze (1972), Houze et al. (1976), Hobbs (1978), Hobbs and Locatelli (1978), Houze (1981), Houze and Hobbs (1982) and others.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544041
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Integrated production scheduling in large-scale flexible electronic parts manufacturing (1988)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 15 (1988), S. 269-287 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Production scheduling ; integer programming ; simulation ; flexible manufacturing ; hierarchical modelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This study reports the development of a production scheduling system for the integrated management of production in large-scale, high-volume electronic assembly lines. The development of the system incorporates control and planning considerations by addressing the interaction of various subsystems. Stochastic and deterministic aspects of the problem environment are appropriately handled via relevant simulation and analytic models. By effecting a hierarchical breakdown of the problem environment, the system produces information used in practical decision making for production planning and scheduling. Procedures used encompass and address considerations for management of work-in-process, optimization of the various subsystems' performance, minimization of setup time effect, and inventory carrying costs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02186799
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Machine utilizations achieved using balanced FMS production ratios in a simulated setting (1988)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 15 (1988), S. 227-267 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: FMS ; production ratios ; mathematical programming ; levels of detail in modeling ; balanced machine workloads ; machine utilizations ; dispatching rules ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Stecke [21] has developed mathematical programming approaches for determining, from a set of part type requirements, the production ratios (part types to be produced next, and their proportions) which maximize overall machine utilizations by balancing machine workloads in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS). These mathematical programming (MP) approaches are aggregate in the sense that they do not take into account such things as contention for transportation resources, travel time for work-in-process, contention for machines, finite buffer space, and dispatching rules. In the current study, the sensitivity of machine utilizations to these aggregations is investigated through simulation modeling. For the situation examined, it is found that achieved machine utilizations are a strong function of some of the factors ignored in the MP methodology, ranging from 9.1% to 22.9% less than those theoretically attainable under the mathematical programming assumptions. The 9.1% degradation results from modeling with nonzero work-in-process travel times (i.e. 2 minutes per transfer) and using only central work-in-process buffers. Resource levels (e.g. the number of automated guided vehicles; the amount of work-in-process; the number of slack buffers) needed to limit the degradation to 9.1% correspond to FMS operating conditions which are feasible in practice.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02186798
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulation of the movement and dispersion of oil slicks in the Arabian Gulf (1988)
    Springer
    Natural hazards 1 (1988), S. 197-219 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Arabian Gulf ; oil ; oil ; simulation ; meteorology ; tides ; residual currents
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The extensive oil drilling and transportation activities in the Arabian Gulf increased the possibility of oil spills and the consequent threat of oil pollution to the regional ecology. The available literature concerning the main aspects of the physical oceanographic characteristics affecting the movement and spreading of oil spill in the Gulf are reviewed. It is concluded that evaporation, wind-driven currents, and sandfall are important as weathering processes, while tidal currents cause lateral spreading of the slick. Oil spill modelling has shown some usefulness in estimating the trajectories of few major spills illustrated by reference to three models developed for the Gulf. The performance of these models, their capabilities and limitations are reviewed. Recommendations are made to gather more data on the behavior of oil spills in this particular environment.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00126615
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On a stochastic description of the time-space behaviour of extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields (1987)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 37-52 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Cyclonic precipitation ; mathematical modeling ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A stochastic description is developed for extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields at synoptic and meso scales as they are typically observed by radars over the Earth. This description attempts to account I) for the synoptic scale behavior of a cyclonic storm (its birth, its synoptic scale motion trajectory, and its dissipation) II) for the synoptic-scale organizational structure of subsynoptic precipitation areas (rainbands, precipitation cores and raincells) within a cyclonic storm; and III) for the behavior of subsynoptic precipitation areas, in terms of their births, their spatial configuration evolutions, their motions, and their deaths (dissipation). The precipitation cores and the raincells are taken as the building blocks of the subsynoptic precipitation, areas within a cyclonic rainfield.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543908
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 363-381 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Probability ; simulation ; petroleum ; resources ; appraisal
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187102
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Monte carlo estimation of the sampling distribution of nonlinear model parameter estimators (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 243-256 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Control variates ; Monte Carlo ; nonlinear estimation ; simulation ; variance reduction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The sampling distribution of parameter estimators can be summarized by moments, fractiles or quantiles. For nonlinear models, these quantities are often approximated by power series, approximated by transformed systems, or estimated by Monte Carlo sampling. A control variate approach based on a linear approximation of the nonlinear model is introduced here to reduce the Monte Carlo sampling necessary to achieve a given accuracy. The particular linear approximation chosen has several advantages: its moments and other properties are known, it is easy to implement, and there is a correspondence to asymptotic results that permits assessment of control variate effectiveness prior to sampling via measures of nonlinearity. Empirical results for several nonlinear problems are presented.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187095
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Response surface methodology as a means for efficient data storage and retrieval (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 351-362 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Response surface methodology ; simulation ; optimization
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Managing the volume of experimental and/or simulation data required for large-scale design studies can be a significant problem. This paper describes a method for dealing with this problem, using response surface methodology. The method involves (1) determining a summary parameterization of the response of the underlying process mechanism generating the data, in order to characterize this response in terms of a manageable set of performance measures, and (2) deriving a model of the data, in order to summarize the dependence of the performance measures on selected predictor or design variables. The method is illustrated by its application to a problem in vehicle collision research.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187101
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Development and testing of soil water regime simulation models (1987)
    Springer
    Water resources management 1 (1987), S. 293-303 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Soil water regime ; modelling ; simulation ; evapotranspiration ; drainage ; soil water resources ; irrigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Four soil water balance simulation models corresponding to specific soil-crop relations were developed for application to irrigation planning and management. The forms of the models were inferred from 18 months of weekly and bi-weekly soil water data and daily meteorological data. Soil water change is computed by budgeting of the water inputs and outputs, namely precipitation, evapotranspiration, drainage, and runoff. Actual evapotranspiration was found to be dependent on both potential evapotranspiration and soil water content. Empirical drainage functions were developed, but semi-empirical ones inferred from theoretical knowledge of soil hydraulic properties performed at least as well. Runoff functions were required to explain only exceptional conditions of very heavy rainfall. A quantitative assessment of each model's prediction accuracy was performed. The uncertainty that can be expected for any predicted value with a cumulative probability of 0.95 is in all cases within an interval of 1% of the soil water content in average conditions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00421881
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Experimental investigation of real-time scheduling in flexible manufacturing systems (1985)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 3 (1985), S. 355-377 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems ; scheduling ; manufacturing systems ; simulation ; computer integrated manufacturing
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a new two-phase (TP) approximate method for real-time scheduling in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS). This method combines a reduced enumeration schedule generation algorithm with a 0–1 optimization algorithm. In order to make the combined algorithm practicable, heuristic rules are introduced for the selection of jobs to be scheduled. The relative performance of the TP method vis-a-vis conventional heuristic dispatching rules such as SPT, LPT, FCFS, MWKR, and LWKR is investigated using combined process-interaction/discrete-event simulation models. An efficient experimental procedure is designed and implemented using these models, and the statistical analysis of the results is presented. For the particular case investigated, the conclusions are very encouraging. In terms of mean flow time, the TP method performs significantly better than any other tested heuristic dispatching rules. Also, the experimental results show that using global information significantly improves the FMS performance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02023749
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An overview of evaluative models for flexible manufacturing systems (1985)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 3 (1985), S. 13-21 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems ; queueing models ; simulation ; performance evaluation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs) are a class of automated systems which can be used to improve productivity in discrete parts manufacturing. Due to the complexity of these systems, it is useful to have models that can aid in the design and operation of FMSs. We specifically differentiate here betweengenerative (or prescriptive) models, whichfind candidate decisions, andevaluative (or descriptive) models, whichevaluate a given set of decisions. We briefly cover, in a practical context, the pros and cons of these two classes of models. Then we focus on the latter class of models. Evaluative models for FMSs fall into five main classes, based on the technique used, namely: static allocation, queueing network theory, simulation, perturbation analysis, and Petri nets. Each of these approaches is briefly described, advantages and disadvantages mentioned, and references given to more detailed papers.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02023766
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A technique for on-line sensitivity analysis of flexible manufacturing systems (1985)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 3 (1985), S. 379-391 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems ; discrete event systems ; real-time systems ; monitoring ; simulation ; performance evaluation ; perturbation analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The recent perturbation analysis approach to discrete event systems is applied to flexible manufacturing systems (FMS). While analytic (queueing) models are useful in preliminary design of such systems, they are not accurate enough at the detailed design/operation stage. Thus, experimentation on detailed simulations or on the actual system has been the way to optimize system performance. Perturbation analysis allows us to derive the sensitivity of system performance, with respect to several design/operating parameters, by observing a single experiment (and without having to actually alter the parameters — often a costly operation). Thus, observation of one experiment can give accurate directions for the improvement of several parameter values. Here we give a simulation example illustrating how perturbation analysis could be used on-line on an FMS to improve its performance, including reducing its operating cost. Experimental results are also presented validating the estimates obtained from this technique.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02023776
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