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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 135-146 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: expert systems ; knowledge base systems ; cognitive modelling ; economic modelling ; very short term economic diagnostic
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Currently, the mechanization of economic forecasting relies on econometric models with obvious limitations. Artificial Intelligence holds out several new possibilities. Will these innovations limit themselves to correcting existing defects, thereby improving the performance of established models, or will they bring about new approaches in modelling and in economic theory itself? Although this paper in no way pretends to answer this question, it will touch upon it as several avenues of research are outlined.
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 16 (1988), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Planning systems ; expert systems ; knowledge representation ; inspection plans ; construction plans
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Traditional O.R. systems are compared with problem solving in Artificial Intelligence via Expert Systems. The discussion centers on explicit knowledge representation. The general aspects are illustrated by two planning systems: · LESP 2: A learning system for inspection plan generation · IDA: A system for finding functions and solutions in construction
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 12 (1988), S. 297-314 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Fuzzy sets ; certainty factors ; expert systems ; linguistic values ; approximate reasoning ; imprecise probabilities
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We first review Zadeh's theory for representing and reasoning with quantified statements of the formQ A's are B. We then suggest an equivalent representation in terms ofQ X's are (A → B). We briefly look at some implications of this new representation.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 16 (1988), S. 185-197 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: risk management ; decision analysis ; expert systems ; artificial intelligence ; operations research
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes and evaluates three different approaches to building decision support systems: the Operations Research/Management Science approach, the Decision Analysis/Multiattribute Utility approach, and the Artificial Intelligence/Expert Systems approach. It evaluates the usefulness of the three approaches for risk management. In particular, it defines evaluation objectives of risk analysts, risk managers, and laypeople and provides a subjective assessment how the three approaches stack up against their objectives. The paper concludes that for most risk management applications a combination of the three approaches would be most desirable.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 25 (1988), S. 225-257 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision support ; negotiation ; negotiation support systems ; expert systems ; rule-based formalism ; knowledge representation ; logic, meta-rules
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The objective of this paper is to introduce a flexible approach to the structuring of negotiations. The process of negotiations with its intricacies is discussed, and drawbacks of quantitative methods are analyzed. The decomposition of the negotiation process into a certain hierarchical structure is presented. This structure is represented with ‘and/or’ trees used for knowledge representation in artificial intelligence. The definitions of flexibility and reactions to the opponent's moves are introduced with the help of a rule-based formalism. The implications of these definitions for the analysis of the negotiation process are presented. The approach is illustrated with a set of hypothetical examples.
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Mathematical methods of operations research 32 (1988), S. 251-269 
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: expert systems ; diagnosis ; deep models ; knowledge acquisition ; learning ; temporal representation ; mechanical engineering
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Im gleichen Maße, wie diagnostische Expertensysteme in immer umfangreichere und komplexere Aufgabenstellungen vordringen, zeigt sich, daß ausschließlich regelbasierte, assoziative Ansätze keine angemessene Lösung mehr darstellen. Ein typisches Beispiel für eine solche Situation ist die Diagnose von CNC-Bearbeitungszentren, deren komplexe innere Struktur und die spezifische Vorgehensweise des Experten explizit in der Wissensbasis repräsentiert werden müssen. In diesem Artikel beschreiben wir drei Richtungen, in denen die“konventionelle” Expertensystemarchitektur erweitert werden kann, um den gestiegenen Anforderungen zu entsprechen. Unser System stützt sich auf ein Struktur- und Funktionsmodell des Bearbeitungszentrums, das das in Regelform gespeicherte Wissen ergänzt. Die Verwendung des Modells stellt neuartige Anforderungen an die Wissensakquisition, die durch eine enge Verzahnung mit dem Lernmechanismus des Expertensystems unterstützt wird. Schließlich gehen wir auf die zeitlichen Aspekte der Diagnosesituation ein, die eine spezielle Behandlung der dynamischen Maschinenprozesse und der sich darin entwickelnden Fehler erfordern.
    Notes: Abstract As the domains of diagnostic expert systems become larger and more complex, purely associative approaches are no longer adequate solutions. A good example for such a situation is the diagnosis of a CNC machining center where the diagnostic process has a rich inner structure that has to be reflected in the system. In this article we describe three ways of extending the conventional expert system architecture. Firstly, our system uses a structural model of the machining center in addition to production rules. Secondly, we pay special attention to knowledge acquisition which is intimately related to the learning process. Finally, several temporal aspects of the diagnostic situation are addressed explicitly.
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