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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 5-35 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: Ambiguity ; expected utility ; insurance ; risk ; subjective probability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a series of experiments, economically sophisticated subjects, including professional actuaries, priced insurance both as consumers and as firms under conditions of ambiguity. Findings support implications of the Einhorn-Hogarth ambiguity model: (1) For low probability-of-loss events, prices of both consumers and firms indicated aversion to ambiguity; (2) As probabilities of losses increased, aversion to ambiguity decreased, with consumers exhibiting ambiguity preference for high probability-of-loss events; and (3) Firms showed greater aversion to ambiguity than consumers. The results are shown to be incompatible with traditional economic analysis of insurance markets and are discussed with respect to the effects of ambiguity on the supply and demand for insurance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 235-263 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: risk ; expected utility ; irrationality ; prospect theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article develops a variant of the expected utility model termed prospective reference theory. Although the standard model occurs as a limiting case, the general approach is that individuals treat stated experimental probabilities as imperfect information. This model is applied to a wide variety of aberrant phenomena, including the Allais paradox, the overweighting of low-probability events, the existence of premiums for certain elimination of risks, and the representativeness heuristic. The prospective reference theory model predicts most of the observed behavioral patterns rather than being potentially reconcilable with such phenomena.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Computational economics 2 (1989), S. 197-219 
    ISSN: 1572-9974
    Keywords: Market equilibrium ; spatial price ; algorithm ; progressive equilibration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Computer Science , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we consider the solution of large-scale market equilibrium problems with linear transaction costs which can be formulated as strictly convex quadratic programming problems, subject to supply and demand constraints. In particular, we introduce two new classes of progressive equilibration algorithms, which retain the simplicity of the original cyclic ones in that at each step either the supply or demand market equilibrium subproblem can be solved explicitly in closed form. However, rather than equilibrating the markets in cyclic manner, the next market to be equilibrated is selected in a more strategic fashion. We then provide qualitative results for the entire family of progressive equilibration algorithms, i.e., the rate of convergence and computational complexity. We discuss implementation issues and give computational results for large-scale examples in order to illustrate and give insights into the theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we show that one of the new classes of algorithms, the ‘good-enough’ one, is computationally the most efficient. Theoretical results are important in that the relative efficiency of different algorithms need no longer be language, machine, or programmer dependent. Instead, the theory can guide both practitioners and researchers in ensuring that their implementation of these algorithms is, indeed, good. Since an equivalent quadratic programming problem arises in a certain class of constrained matrix problems, our results can be applied there, as well. Finally, since more general asymmetric multicommodity market equilibrium problems can be solved as series of the type of problems considered here, the result$ are also applicable to such equilibrium problems.
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 263-293 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: utility ; risk ; value ; game theory ; consequences ; Bayesian
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, a problem for utility theory - that it would have an agent who was compelled to play “Russian Roulette’ with one revolver or another, to pay as much to have a six-shooter with four bullets relieved of one bullet before playing with it, as he would be willing to pay to have a six-shooter with two bullets emptied - is reviewed. A less demanding Bayesian theory is described, that would have an agent maximize expected values of possible total consequence of his actions. And utility theory is located within that theory as valid for agents who satisfy certain formal conditions, that is, for agents who are, in terms of that more general theory, indifferent to certain dimensions of ‘risk’. Raiffa- and Savage-style arguments for its more general validity are then resisted. Addenda are concerned with implications for game theory, and relations between ‘utilities’ and ‘values’.
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theory and decision 24 (1988), S. 169-200 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision theory ; risk ; expected utility ; security level ; risk aversion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The particular attention paid by decision makers to the security level ensured by each decision under risk, which is responsible for the certainty effect, can be taken into account by weakening the independence and continuity axioms of expected utility theory. In the resulting model, preferences depend on: (i) the security level, (ii) the expected utility, offered by each decision. Choices are partially determined by security level comparison and completed by the maximization of a function, which express the existing tradeoffs between expected utility and security level, and is, at a given security level, an affine function of the expected utility. In the model, risk neutrality at a given security level implies risk aversion.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 6 (1986), S. 147-160 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Public sector ; locational equity ; tree network ; algorithm
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Classical location theories and models were initially developed for the private sector, so that the related operational research literature has emphasized performance measures of efficiency and effectiveness. For public sector applications, measures of equity become important, yet such measures have received little formal treatment. This paper suggests a locational equity measure, the variance measure, and investigates its properties for tree networks. A fast algorithm (O(M)) to locate the minimum variance point on a tree network is developed, and some numerical results illustrate the variance optimal location.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 6 (1986), S. 291-310 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Capacitated location-routing ; integer programming ; algorithm ; least cost
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In location-routing problems, the objective is to locate one or many depots within a set of sites (representing customer locations or cities) and to construct delivery routes from the selected depot or depots to the remaining sites at least system cost. The objective function is the sum of depot operating costs, vehicle acquisition costs and routing costs. This paper considers one such problem in which a weight is assigned to each site and where sites are to be visited by vehicles having a given capacity. The solution must be such that the sum of the weights of sites visited on any given route does not exceed the capacity of the visiting vehicle. The formulation of an integer linear program for this problem involves degree constraints, generalized subtour elimination constraints, and chain barring constraints. An exact algorithm, using initial relaxation of most of the problem constraints, is presented which is capable of solving problems with up to twenty sites within a reasonable number of iterations.
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 4 (1985), S. 103-121 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Minimax ; games ; strategy ; matrix ; chess ; algorithm
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Computer game-playing programs repeatedly calculate minimax elements μ = min i max j M ij of large pay off matricesM ij . A straightforwardrow-by-row calculation of μ scans rows ofM ij one at a time, skipping to a new row whenever an element is encountered that exceeds a current minimax. Anoptimal calculation, derived here, scans the matrix more erratically but finds μ after testing the fewest possible matrix elements. Minimizing the number of elements tested is reasonable when elements must be computed as needed by evaluating future game positions. This paper obtains the expected number of tests required when the elements are independent, identically distributed, random variables. For matrices 50 by 50 or smaller, the expected number of tests required by the row-by-row calculation can be at most 42% greater than the number for the optimal calculation. When the numbersR, C of rows and columns are very large, both calculations require an expected number of tests nearRC/InR.
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