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  • Articles  (17)
  • simulation  (8)
  • risk  (5)
  • Approximation  (4)
  • 1985-1989  (17)
  • 1970-1974
  • 1950-1954
  • 1945-1949
  • Economics  (17)
  • Sociology  (3)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Risk, ambiguity, and insurance (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 5-35 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: Ambiguity ; expected utility ; insurance ; risk ; subjective probability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a series of experiments, economically sophisticated subjects, including professional actuaries, priced insurance both as consumers and as firms under conditions of ambiguity. Findings support implications of the Einhorn-Hogarth ambiguity model: (1) For low probability-of-loss events, prices of both consumers and firms indicated aversion to ambiguity; (2) As probabilities of losses increased, aversion to ambiguity decreased, with consumers exhibiting ambiguity preference for high probability-of-loss events; and (3) Firms showed greater aversion to ambiguity than consumers. The results are shown to be incompatible with traditional economic analysis of insurance markets and are discussed with respect to the effects of ambiguity on the supply and demand for insurance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00055709
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Prospective reference theory: Toward an explanation of the paradoxes (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 235-263 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: risk ; expected utility ; irrationality ; prospect theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article develops a variant of the expected utility model termed prospective reference theory. Although the standard model occurs as a limiting case, the general approach is that individuals treat stated experimental probabilities as imperfect information. This model is applied to a wide variety of aberrant phenomena, including the Allais paradox, the overweighting of low-probability events, the existence of premiums for certain elimination of risks, and the representativeness heuristic. The prospective reference theory model predicts most of the observed behavioral patterns rather than being potentially reconcilable with such phenomena.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00209389
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Cognition and uncertainty (1989)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00133989
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Utility theory and the Bayesian paradigm (1989)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 263-293 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: utility ; risk ; value ; game theory ; consequences ; Bayesian
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, a problem for utility theory - that it would have an agent who was compelled to play “Russian Roulette’ with one revolver or another, to pay as much to have a six-shooter with four bullets relieved of one bullet before playing with it, as he would be willing to pay to have a six-shooter with two bullets emptied - is reviewed. A less demanding Bayesian theory is described, that would have an agent maximize expected values of possible total consequence of his actions. And utility theory is located within that theory as valid for agents who satisfy certain formal conditions, that is, for agents who are, in terms of that more general theory, indifferent to certain dimensions of ‘risk’. Raiffa- and Savage-style arguments for its more general validity are then resisted. Addenda are concerned with implications for game theory, and relations between ‘utilities’ and ‘values’.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00134109
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Algorithms for flows with parametric capacities (1989)
    Springer
    Mathematical methods of operations research 33 (1989), S. 21-37 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: Network Flows ; Parametric Optimization ; Approximation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir betrachten maximale Flußprobleme, in denen die Kapazitäten lineare Funktionen eines Parameterst ∈ [0,T] sind. Da dieses Problem ein Spezialfall eines parametrischen linearen Programms ist, kann man den klassischen horizontalen Ansatz anwenden, mit dem optimale Lösungen sukzessive auf Teilintervallen von [0,T] bestimmt werden. Wir stellen einen alternativen Algorithmus vor, der in jeder Iteration die optimale Lösung für allet ∈ [0,T] approximiert. Dieser vertikalen Ansatz ist eine Art Markierungsalgorithmus, wobei die Flußvariablen stückweise lineare Funktionen sind. Flußvergrößerungen werden aufbedingten flußvergrößernden Wegen durchgeführt, die mittels modifizierter kürzester Wege Algorithmen gefunden werden können. Der vertikale Algorithmus kann sowohl zur Berechnung des optimalen parametrischen Flusses als auch zur Berechnung einer guten Approximation für allet benutzt werden, falls sich herausstellt, daß die Berechnung der optimalen Lösung zu zeitaufwendig ist.
    Notes: Abstract We consider the problem of finding maximal flows with respect to capacities which are linear functions of a parametert ∈ [0,T]. Since this problem is a special case of a parametric linear program the classichorizontal approach can be applied in which optimal solutions are computed for successive subintervals of [0,T]. We discuss an alternative algorithm which approximates in each iteration the optimal solution for allt ∈ [0,T]. Thisvertical algorithm is a labeling type algorithm where the flow variables are piecewise linear functions. Flow augmentations are done alongconditional flow augmenting paths which can be found by modified path algorithms. The vertical algorithm can be used to solve the parametric flow problem optimally as well as to compute a good approximation for allt if the computation of the optimal solution turns out to be too time consuming.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01415514
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Approximating the departure process from aG/G/1 loss system (1989)
    Springer
    Mathematical methods of operations research 33 (1989), S. 109-129 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: Loss Systems ; Output Processes ; Simulation ; Approximation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Für das BedienungsmodellG/G/1 ohne Warteraum wird eine Approximation des Abgangsprozesses im stationären Zustand angegeben, wobei allgemein verteilte Zwischenankunfts- und Bedienungszeiten angenommen sind. Ferner werden für den Fall, daß mehrere solche Bediener in Reihen geschaltet sind, approximative Resultate angegeben und mit Simulationen überprüft.
    Notes: Abstract The departure process from aG/G/1 loss system with generally distributed interarrival time, generally distributed service time, a single server, and no waiting room is approximated in steady state. Furthermore, the tandem behavior of the system is approximated, approximation results are provided, and are compared against those from a simulation study.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01415166
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Integrated production scheduling in large-scale flexible electronic parts manufacturing (1988)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 15 (1988), S. 269-287 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Production scheduling ; integer programming ; simulation ; flexible manufacturing ; hierarchical modelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This study reports the development of a production scheduling system for the integrated management of production in large-scale, high-volume electronic assembly lines. The development of the system incorporates control and planning considerations by addressing the interaction of various subsystems. Stochastic and deterministic aspects of the problem environment are appropriately handled via relevant simulation and analytic models. By effecting a hierarchical breakdown of the problem environment, the system produces information used in practical decision making for production planning and scheduling. Procedures used encompass and address considerations for management of work-in-process, optimization of the various subsystems' performance, minimization of setup time effect, and inventory carrying costs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02186799
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
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    Machine utilizations achieved using balanced FMS production ratios in a simulated setting (1988)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 15 (1988), S. 227-267 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: FMS ; production ratios ; mathematical programming ; levels of detail in modeling ; balanced machine workloads ; machine utilizations ; dispatching rules ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Stecke [21] has developed mathematical programming approaches for determining, from a set of part type requirements, the production ratios (part types to be produced next, and their proportions) which maximize overall machine utilizations by balancing machine workloads in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS). These mathematical programming (MP) approaches are aggregate in the sense that they do not take into account such things as contention for transportation resources, travel time for work-in-process, contention for machines, finite buffer space, and dispatching rules. In the current study, the sensitivity of machine utilizations to these aggregations is investigated through simulation modeling. For the situation examined, it is found that achieved machine utilizations are a strong function of some of the factors ignored in the MP methodology, ranging from 9.1% to 22.9% less than those theoretically attainable under the mathematical programming assumptions. The 9.1% degradation results from modeling with nonzero work-in-process travel times (i.e. 2 minutes per transfer) and using only central work-in-process buffers. Resource levels (e.g. the number of automated guided vehicles; the amount of work-in-process; the number of slack buffers) needed to limit the degradation to 9.1% correspond to FMS operating conditions which are feasible in practice.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02186798
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Choice under risk and the security factor: An axiomatic model (1988)
    Springer
    Theory and decision 24 (1988), S. 169-200 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision theory ; risk ; expected utility ; security level ; risk aversion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The particular attention paid by decision makers to the security level ensured by each decision under risk, which is responsible for the certainty effect, can be taken into account by weakening the independence and continuity axioms of expected utility theory. In the resulting model, preferences depend on: (i) the security level, (ii) the expected utility, offered by each decision. Choices are partially determined by security level comparison and completed by the maximization of a function, which express the existing tradeoffs between expected utility and security level, and is, at a given security level, an affine function of the expected utility. In the model, risk neutrality at a given security level implies risk aversion.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00132460
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
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    An empirical extension of the M/G/1 heavy traffic approximation (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 93-101 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Approximation ; empirical studies ; heavy traffic results ; moment approximations ; queueing approximations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Numerical evaluation of waiting time distributions for M/G/1 systems is somewhat difficult. This paper examines a simple variation of the heavy traffic formula which may be useful at modest levels of traffic intensity. One can justify the heavy traffic approximation by expressing the Laplace transform of the service time distribution as a Maclaurin series and then truncating to three terms. The spectrum factorization and inversion leads in a straightforward fashion to the heavy traffic approximation. If one carries two additional terms from the Maclaurin series, the characteristic equation is a cubic with exactly one real negative root. This root provides an easy way to extend the heavy traffic formula to cases where the traffic is not so heavy. This paper studies the quality of this approximation and includes some numerical evaluation based on data actually encountered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187084
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 363-381 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Probability ; simulation ; petroleum ; resources ; appraisal
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187102
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Monte carlo estimation of the sampling distribution of nonlinear model parameter estimators (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 243-256 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Control variates ; Monte Carlo ; nonlinear estimation ; simulation ; variance reduction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The sampling distribution of parameter estimators can be summarized by moments, fractiles or quantiles. For nonlinear models, these quantities are often approximated by power series, approximated by transformed systems, or estimated by Monte Carlo sampling. A control variate approach based on a linear approximation of the nonlinear model is introduced here to reduce the Monte Carlo sampling necessary to achieve a given accuracy. The particular linear approximation chosen has several advantages: its moments and other properties are known, it is easy to implement, and there is a correspondence to asymptotic results that permits assessment of control variate effectiveness prior to sampling via measures of nonlinearity. Empirical results for several nonlinear problems are presented.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187095
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  • 13
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    Response surface methodology as a means for efficient data storage and retrieval (1987)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 351-362 
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    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Response surface methodology ; simulation ; optimization
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Managing the volume of experimental and/or simulation data required for large-scale design studies can be a significant problem. This paper describes a method for dealing with this problem, using response surface methodology. The method involves (1) determining a summary parameterization of the response of the underlying process mechanism generating the data, in order to characterize this response in terms of a manageable set of performance measures, and (2) deriving a model of the data, in order to summarize the dependence of the performance measures on selected predictor or design variables. The method is illustrated by its application to a problem in vehicle collision research.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187101
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  • 14
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    Bounds for the approximation of dynamic programs (1986)
    Springer
    Mathematical methods of operations research 30 (1986), S. A65 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: Dynamic Programming ; Approximation ; Bounds ; Inventory model ; (s, S)-policies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein allgemeines dynamisches Optimierungsmodell mit endlichem Horizont betrachtet. Für verschiedene Näherungsverfahren für die minimalen erwarteten Gesamtkosten und die optimale Politik werden Schranken angegeben. Die Theorie wird sodann auf ein Lagerhaltungsmodell angewandt, um Schranken für „gute“ Bestellpolitiken zu erhalten.
    Notes: Summary We consider a general finite stage dynamic programming model. Bounds are derived for the approximation of the minimum expected total cost and of the optimal policy. The theory is applied to an inventory model to give bounds for “good” order policies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01918632
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
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    Experimental investigation of real-time scheduling in flexible manufacturing systems (1985)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 3 (1985), S. 355-377 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems ; scheduling ; manufacturing systems ; simulation ; computer integrated manufacturing
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a new two-phase (TP) approximate method for real-time scheduling in a flexible manufacturing system (FMS). This method combines a reduced enumeration schedule generation algorithm with a 0–1 optimization algorithm. In order to make the combined algorithm practicable, heuristic rules are introduced for the selection of jobs to be scheduled. The relative performance of the TP method vis-a-vis conventional heuristic dispatching rules such as SPT, LPT, FCFS, MWKR, and LWKR is investigated using combined process-interaction/discrete-event simulation models. An efficient experimental procedure is designed and implemented using these models, and the statistical analysis of the results is presented. For the particular case investigated, the conclusions are very encouraging. In terms of mean flow time, the TP method performs significantly better than any other tested heuristic dispatching rules. Also, the experimental results show that using global information significantly improves the FMS performance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02023749
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  • 16
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    An overview of evaluative models for flexible manufacturing systems (1985)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 3 (1985), S. 13-21 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems ; queueing models ; simulation ; performance evaluation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs) are a class of automated systems which can be used to improve productivity in discrete parts manufacturing. Due to the complexity of these systems, it is useful to have models that can aid in the design and operation of FMSs. We specifically differentiate here betweengenerative (or prescriptive) models, whichfind candidate decisions, andevaluative (or descriptive) models, whichevaluate a given set of decisions. We briefly cover, in a practical context, the pros and cons of these two classes of models. Then we focus on the latter class of models. Evaluative models for FMSs fall into five main classes, based on the technique used, namely: static allocation, queueing network theory, simulation, perturbation analysis, and Petri nets. Each of these approaches is briefly described, advantages and disadvantages mentioned, and references given to more detailed papers.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02023766
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
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    A technique for on-line sensitivity analysis of flexible manufacturing systems (1985)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 3 (1985), S. 379-391 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Flexible manufacturing systems ; discrete event systems ; real-time systems ; monitoring ; simulation ; performance evaluation ; perturbation analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The recent perturbation analysis approach to discrete event systems is applied to flexible manufacturing systems (FMS). While analytic (queueing) models are useful in preliminary design of such systems, they are not accurate enough at the detailed design/operation stage. Thus, experimentation on detailed simulations or on the actual system has been the way to optimize system performance. Perturbation analysis allows us to derive the sensitivity of system performance, with respect to several design/operating parameters, by observing a single experiment (and without having to actually alter the parameters — often a costly operation). Thus, observation of one experiment can give accurate directions for the improvement of several parameter values. Here we give a simulation example illustrating how perturbation analysis could be used on-line on an FMS to improve its performance, including reducing its operating cost. Experimental results are also presented validating the estimates obtained from this technique.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02023776
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