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  • Articles  (14)
  • expected utility  (9)
  • risk  (5)
  • Approximation  (4)
  • 1985-1989  (14)
  • 1970-1974
  • 1950-1954
  • 1945-1949
  • Economics  (14)
  • Sociology  (4)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 5-35 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: Ambiguity ; expected utility ; insurance ; risk ; subjective probability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a series of experiments, economically sophisticated subjects, including professional actuaries, priced insurance both as consumers and as firms under conditions of ambiguity. Findings support implications of the Einhorn-Hogarth ambiguity model: (1) For low probability-of-loss events, prices of both consumers and firms indicated aversion to ambiguity; (2) As probabilities of losses increased, aversion to ambiguity decreased, with consumers exhibiting ambiguity preference for high probability-of-loss events; and (3) Firms showed greater aversion to ambiguity than consumers. The results are shown to be incompatible with traditional economic analysis of insurance markets and are discussed with respect to the effects of ambiguity on the supply and demand for insurance.
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  • 2
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    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 235-263 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: risk ; expected utility ; irrationality ; prospect theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article develops a variant of the expected utility model termed prospective reference theory. Although the standard model occurs as a limiting case, the general approach is that individuals treat stated experimental probabilities as imperfect information. This model is applied to a wide variety of aberrant phenomena, including the Allais paradox, the overweighting of low-probability events, the existence of premiums for certain elimination of risks, and the representativeness heuristic. The prospective reference theory model predicts most of the observed behavioral patterns rather than being potentially reconcilable with such phenomena.
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  • 3
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    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 385-403 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: social preferences ; expected utility ; optimum insurance ; inclusive welfare ; state-consistent preferences
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article extends Bergsonian welfare analysis to an environment of uncertainty where preferences are not expected utility and may even be state-inconsistent. Given state-inconsistent preferences, the familiar notion of ex ante efficiency is also state-inconsistent. Other efficiency and welfare concepts achieve state consistency by ignoring entirely the prospective preferences of consumers. The framework developed in this article allows welfare judgments to be state-consistent while respecting prospective and conditional preferences. The theory is called inclusive welfare. An application to optimum insurance subsidies illustrates the practical use of the concept.
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  • 4
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    Journal of risk and uncertainty 2 (1989), S. 61-104 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: expected utility ; generalized utility ; nonexpected utility ; risky choice ; Allais paradox
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract There is much evidence that people willingly violate expected utility theory when making choices. Several axiomatic theories have been proposed to explain some of this evidence, but there are few data that discriminate between the theories. To gather such data, an experiment was conducted using pairs of gambles with three levels of outcomes and many combinations of probabilities. Most typical findings were replicated, including the common consequence effect and different risk attitudes for gains and losses. There is evidence of both fanning out and fanning in of indifference curves, and both quasiconcavity and quasiconvexity of preferences. No theory can explain all the data, but prospect theory and the hypothesis that indifference curves fan out can explain most of them.
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  • 5
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    Theory and decision 27 (1989), S. 93-106 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: cognition ; decision ; graphs ; artificial intelligence ; risk ; uncertainty ; expert systems ; expected utility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision. In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity. The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis. To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.
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  • 6
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    Theory and decision 26 (1989), S. 263-293 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: utility ; risk ; value ; game theory ; consequences ; Bayesian
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, a problem for utility theory - that it would have an agent who was compelled to play “Russian Roulette’ with one revolver or another, to pay as much to have a six-shooter with four bullets relieved of one bullet before playing with it, as he would be willing to pay to have a six-shooter with two bullets emptied - is reviewed. A less demanding Bayesian theory is described, that would have an agent maximize expected values of possible total consequence of his actions. And utility theory is located within that theory as valid for agents who satisfy certain formal conditions, that is, for agents who are, in terms of that more general theory, indifferent to certain dimensions of ‘risk’. Raiffa- and Savage-style arguments for its more general validity are then resisted. Addenda are concerned with implications for game theory, and relations between ‘utilities’ and ‘values’.
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  • 7
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    Mathematical methods of operations research 33 (1989), S. 21-37 
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: Network Flows ; Parametric Optimization ; Approximation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir betrachten maximale Flußprobleme, in denen die Kapazitäten lineare Funktionen eines Parameterst ∈ [0,T] sind. Da dieses Problem ein Spezialfall eines parametrischen linearen Programms ist, kann man den klassischen horizontalen Ansatz anwenden, mit dem optimale Lösungen sukzessive auf Teilintervallen von [0,T] bestimmt werden. Wir stellen einen alternativen Algorithmus vor, der in jeder Iteration die optimale Lösung für allet ∈ [0,T] approximiert. Dieser vertikalen Ansatz ist eine Art Markierungsalgorithmus, wobei die Flußvariablen stückweise lineare Funktionen sind. Flußvergrößerungen werden aufbedingten flußvergrößernden Wegen durchgeführt, die mittels modifizierter kürzester Wege Algorithmen gefunden werden können. Der vertikale Algorithmus kann sowohl zur Berechnung des optimalen parametrischen Flusses als auch zur Berechnung einer guten Approximation für allet benutzt werden, falls sich herausstellt, daß die Berechnung der optimalen Lösung zu zeitaufwendig ist.
    Notes: Abstract We consider the problem of finding maximal flows with respect to capacities which are linear functions of a parametert ∈ [0,T]. Since this problem is a special case of a parametric linear program the classichorizontal approach can be applied in which optimal solutions are computed for successive subintervals of [0,T]. We discuss an alternative algorithm which approximates in each iteration the optimal solution for allt ∈ [0,T]. Thisvertical algorithm is a labeling type algorithm where the flow variables are piecewise linear functions. Flow augmentations are done alongconditional flow augmenting paths which can be found by modified path algorithms. The vertical algorithm can be used to solve the parametric flow problem optimally as well as to compute a good approximation for allt if the computation of the optimal solution turns out to be too time consuming.
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  • 8
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    Mathematical methods of operations research 33 (1989), S. 109-129 
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: Loss Systems ; Output Processes ; Simulation ; Approximation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Für das BedienungsmodellG/G/1 ohne Warteraum wird eine Approximation des Abgangsprozesses im stationären Zustand angegeben, wobei allgemein verteilte Zwischenankunfts- und Bedienungszeiten angenommen sind. Ferner werden für den Fall, daß mehrere solche Bediener in Reihen geschaltet sind, approximative Resultate angegeben und mit Simulationen überprüft.
    Notes: Abstract The departure process from aG/G/1 loss system with generally distributed interarrival time, generally distributed service time, a single server, and no waiting room is approximated in steady state. Furthermore, the tandem behavior of the system is approximated, approximation results are provided, and are compared against those from a simulation study.
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  • 9
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    Journal of risk and uncertainty 1 (1988), S. 267-283 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: Risk ; uncertainty ; expected utility ; nonlinear preference
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract During the past generation, expected utility theory has been widely accepted as the normative standard for decision making under risk and under uncertainty. However, it is now known that reasonable people often violate its assumptions, and a number of generalizations of the theory have been developed to accommodate some of the more common violations. This essay recalls the origins of expected utility in the early 1700s, notes its axiomatizations on the basis of preference comparisons in the mid-1900s, describes violations of those axioms uncovered since then, outlines new theories stimulated by the violations, and suggests where the field might be headed in the next few decades.
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  • 10
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    Journal of risk and uncertainty 1 (1988), S. 389-393 
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: expected utility ; internal consistecy ; book against self
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract If I am “coherent”, in the sense that I can always replace any subset of outcomes by their certainty equivalent (occurring with the sum of their probabilities), then I must act according to the dogma of maximizing an Exp {U}, ruling out Machina [1982], Allais [1952], and Ysidro [1950] functionals.
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  • 11
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    Theory and decision 24 (1988), S. 169-200 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: decision theory ; risk ; expected utility ; security level ; risk aversion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The particular attention paid by decision makers to the security level ensured by each decision under risk, which is responsible for the certainty effect, can be taken into account by weakening the independence and continuity axioms of expected utility theory. In the resulting model, preferences depend on: (i) the security level, (ii) the expected utility, offered by each decision. Choices are partially determined by security level comparison and completed by the maximization of a function, which express the existing tradeoffs between expected utility and security level, and is, at a given security level, an affine function of the expected utility. In the model, risk neutrality at a given security level implies risk aversion.
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  • 12
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    Theory and decision 25 (1988), S. 219-223 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: St. Petersburg Paradox ; expected utility ; bounded utility ; cardinal utility ; Becker's theory of time
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The assumption of bounded utility function resolves the St. Petersburg paradox. The justification for such a bound is provided by Brito, who argues that limited time will bound the utility function. However, a reformulated St. Petersburg game, which is played for both money and time, effectively circumvents Brito's justification for a bound. Hence, no convincing justification for bounding the utility function yet exists.
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  • 13
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    Annals of operations research 8 (1987), S. 93-101 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Approximation ; empirical studies ; heavy traffic results ; moment approximations ; queueing approximations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Numerical evaluation of waiting time distributions for M/G/1 systems is somewhat difficult. This paper examines a simple variation of the heavy traffic formula which may be useful at modest levels of traffic intensity. One can justify the heavy traffic approximation by expressing the Laplace transform of the service time distribution as a Maclaurin series and then truncating to three terms. The spectrum factorization and inversion leads in a straightforward fashion to the heavy traffic approximation. If one carries two additional terms from the Maclaurin series, the characteristic equation is a cubic with exactly one real negative root. This root provides an easy way to extend the heavy traffic formula to cases where the traffic is not so heavy. This paper studies the quality of this approximation and includes some numerical evaluation based on data actually encountered.
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  • 14
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    Mathematical methods of operations research 30 (1986), S. A65 
    ISSN: 1432-5217
    Keywords: Dynamic Programming ; Approximation ; Bounds ; Inventory model ; (s, S)-policies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein allgemeines dynamisches Optimierungsmodell mit endlichem Horizont betrachtet. Für verschiedene Näherungsverfahren für die minimalen erwarteten Gesamtkosten und die optimale Politik werden Schranken angegeben. Die Theorie wird sodann auf ein Lagerhaltungsmodell angewandt, um Schranken für „gute“ Bestellpolitiken zu erhalten.
    Notes: Summary We consider a general finite stage dynamic programming model. Bounds are derived for the approximation of the minimum expected total cost and of the optimal policy. The theory is applied to an inventory model to give bounds for “good” order policies.
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