ALBERT

Description: To avoid an explicit simulation of the overflows across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, many models of the large-scale ocean circulation seek to include the net effect of the inflowing dense water masses by restoring temperature and salinity near the ridge to observed conditions. In this paper the authors examine the effect of different datasets for the northern restoring condition in two versions, eddy resolving and non-eddy resolving, of the model of the North and equatorial Atlantic that has been developed in recent years as a Community Modeling Effort for WOCE. It is shown that the use of smoothed climatological fields of temperature and salinity south of the Denmark Strait leads to strong deficiencies in the simulation of the deep flow field in the basin. A switch to actual hydrographic data from the Denmark Strait ignites a rapid dynamic response throughout the North Atlantic, affecting the transport and vertical structure of the deep western boundary current and, by virtue of the JEBAR efffect, the transport of the horizontal gyres. Meridional overturning and northward heat transport too weak in the cases with climatological boundary conditions, increase to more realistic levels in the subtropical North Atlantic. The initial response to switches in the high-latitude thermohaline forcing is mediated by fast waves along the westurn boundary, leading to changes in the deep western boundary current in low latitudes after about two years in the non-eddy-resolving cast. The initial timescale depends on the horizontal grid spacing of the model; in the high-resolution case, the first signal reaches the equator in a few months. The adjustment to a new, dynamic quasi equilibrium involves Kelvin waves along the equator and Rossby wave in the interior and is attained in less than two decades throughout the North Atlantic. It is suggested that these fast dynamic adjustment processes could play an important role in possible fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation, or transitions between different equilibrium states of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, and may have determined the timescale of the observed climatic transitions before and during the last deglaciation.

Description: A high-resolution model of the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation in the North and equatorial Atlantic Ocean is used to study the structure and variability of the boundary current system at 26°N, including the Florida Current, the Antilles Current, and the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The model was developed by Bryan and Holland as a Community Modeling Effort of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Subsequent experiments have been performed at IfM Kiel, with different friction coefficients, and different climatologies of monthly mean wind stress: Hellerman–Rosenstein (HR) and Isemer–Hasse (IH). The southward volume transports in the upper 1000 m of the interior Atlantic, at 26°N, are 25.0 Sv (Sv ≡ 106m3s−1) for HR, and 34.9 Sv for IH forcing, in good agreement with the transport from the integrated Sverdrup balance at this latitude (23.9 Sv for HR, 35.6 Sv for IH). The return flow of this wind-driven transport, plus the southward transport of the DWBC (6–8 Sv), is partitioned between the Florida Current and Antilles Current. With HR forcing, the transport through the Straits of Florida is 23.2 Sv; this increases to 29.1 Sv when the wind stresses of IH are used. The annual variation of the simulated Florida Current is very similar to previous, coarse-resolution models when using the same wind-stress climatology (HR); the annual range (3.4 Sv) obtained with HR forcing is strongly enhanced (6.3 Sv) with IH forcing. The meridional heat transport at 26°N, zonally integrated across the basin, is in phase with the Florida Current; its annual range increases from 0.44 PW (HR) to 0.80 PW (IH). The annual signal east of the Bahamas is masked by strong transport fluctuations on a time scale of O(100 days), caused by an instability of the Antilles Current. By averaging over several model years, an annual cycle is extracted, which is in phase with the wind stress curl over the western part of the basin.

Description: Characteristic of the mesoscale variability in the Atlantic Ocean are investigated by analyzing the Geosat altimeter signal between 60°S and 60°N. The rms sea-surface variability for various frequency bands is studied, including the high-frequency eddy-containing band with periods 〈150 days. Wavenumber spectra and spatial eddy characteristics are analyzed over 10° by 10° boxes covering both hemispheres of the Atlantic Ocean. A comparison, with solutions of a high-resolution numerical experiment, developed as the Community Modeling Effort of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, aids interpretation of the Geosat results in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic and provides a test of the model fluctuating eddy field. Results from Geosat altimetry show a wavenumber dependence close to k1−5 (k1 being the alongtrack wave-number) over almost the entire Atlantic Ocean except for areas in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic where the rms variability in the eddy-containing band is less than 5 cm, that is, not significantly different from the altimeter noise level. Characteristic eddy length scales inferred from Geosat data are linearly related with the deformation radius of the first baroclinic mode over the whole Atlantic Ocean, except for the equatorial regime (10°S to 10°N). The data-model comparison indicates that the high-resolution model with horizontal grid size of ⅓° and ° in latitude and longitude is quite capable of simulating observed eddy characteristics in the tropics and subtropics. In mid- and high latitudes, however, the model fails to simulate the pronounced poleward decrease in eddy scales. This leads to systematic discrepancies between the model and Geosat observation, with model scales being up to 50% larger than deduced from altimetry.

Description: The space-time structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and the other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO-related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle involving slow propagation in the equatorial oceanic beat content and the surface wind field. The existence of this cycle implies the ability of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions.

Description: A hybrid coupled model (HCM) of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system is described. The ocean component is a fully nonlinear ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The atmospheric element is a statistical model that specifies wind stress from ocean-model sea surface temperatures (SST). The coupled model demonstrates a chaotic behavior during extended integration that is related to slow changes in the background mean state of the ocean. The HCM also reproduces many of the observed variations in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. The physical processes operative in the model together describe a natural mode of climate variability in the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere system. The mode is composed of (i) westward-propagating Rossby waves and (ii) an equatorially confined air–sea element that propagates eastward. Additional results showed that the seasonal dependence of the anomalous ocean–atmosphere coupling was vital to the model's ability to both replicate and forecast key features of the tropical Pacific climate system. A series of hindcast and forecast experiments was conducted with the model. It showed real skill in forecasting fall/winter tropical Pacific SST at a lead time of up to 18 months. This skill was largely confined to the central equatorial Pacific, just the region that is most prominent in teleconnections with the Northern Hemisphere during winter. This result suggests the model forecasts of winter SST at leads times of at least 6 months are good enough to be used with atmospheric models (statistical or OGCM) to attempt long-range winter forecasts for the North American continent. This suggestion is confirmed in Part II of this paper.

Description: We have investigated the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation and the Indian summer monsoon simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26- year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, overall, the coupled GCM simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian summer monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation, which is partly related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface beat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in monsoon rainfall, simulated by the coupled GCM, is only about half as strong as observed. The reason for this is that the simulated interannual variability in the Indian monsoon appears to be related to internal processes within the atmosphere only. In contrast, an investigation based on observations shows a clear lead-lag relationship between interannual variations in the monsoon rainfall and tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Furthermore, the atmospheric GCM also fails to reproduce this lead-lag relationship between monsoon rainfall and tropical Pacific SST when run in a stand-alone integration with observed SSTs prescribed during the period 1970–1988. These results indicate that important physical processes relating tropical Pacific SST to Indian monsoon rainfall are not adequately modeled in our atmospheric GCM. Monsoon rainfall predictions appear therefore premature.

Description: The ECMWF-T21 atmospheric GCM is forced by observed near-global SST from January 1970 to December 1985. Its response in low level winds and surface wind stress over the Pacific Ocean is compared with various observations. The time dependent SST clearly induces a Southern Oscillation (SO) in the model run which is apparent in the time series of all variables considered. The phase of the GCM SO is as observed, but its low frequency variance is too weak and is mainly confined to the western Pacific. Because of the GCM's use as the atmospheric component in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of an equatorial oceanic primitive equation model to both the modeled and observed wind stress is examined. The ocean model responds to the full observed wind stress forcing in a manner almost identical to that when it is forced by the first two low frequency EOFs of the observations only. These first two EOFs describe a regular eastward propagation of the SO signal from the western Pacific to the central Pacific within about a year. The ocean model's response to the modeled wind stress is too weak and similar to the response when the observed forcing is truncated to the first EOF only. In other words, the observed SO appears as a sequence of propagating patterns but the simulated SO as a standing oscillation. The nature of the deviation of the simulated wind stress from observations is analyzed by means of Model Output Statistics (MOS). It is shown that a MOS-corrected simulated wind stress, if used to force an ocean GCM, leads to a significant enhancement of low frequency SST variance, which is most pronounced in the western Pacific.

Description: Two extended integrations of general circulation models (GCMs) are examined to determine the physical processes operating during an ENSO cycle. The first integration is from the Hamburg version of the ECMWF T21 atmospheric model forced with observed global sea surface temperatures (SST) over the period 1970–85. The second integration is from a Max Planck Institut model of the tropical Pacific forced by observed wind stress for the same period. Both integrations produce key observed features of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system during the 1970–85 period. The atmospheric model results show an eastward propagation of information from the western to eastern Pacific along the equator, although this signal is somewhat weaker than observed. The Laplacian of SST largely drives the surface wind field convergence and hence determines the position of large scale precipitation-condensation heating. This statement is valid only in the near-equatorial zone. Air-sea heat exchange is important in the planetary boundary layer in forcing the wind field convergence but not so important to the main troposphere, which is heated largely by condensation heating. The monopole response seen in the atmosphere above about 500 mb is due to a combination of factors, the most important being adiabatic heating associated with subsidence and tropic-wide variations in precipitation. The models show the role of air-sea heat exchange in the ocean heat balance in the wave guide is one of dissipation/damping. Total air-sea heat exchange is well represented by a simple Newtonian cooling parameterization in the near-equatorial region. In the wave guide, advection dominates the oceanic heat balance with meridional advection being numerically the most important in all regions except right on the equator. The meridional term is largely explained by local Ekman dynamics that generally overwhelm other processes in the regions of significant wind stress. The principal element in this advection term is the anomalous meridional current acting on the climatological mean meridional SST gradient. The eastward motion of the anomalies seen in both models is driven primarily by the ocean. The wind stress associated with the SST anomalies forces an equatorial convergence of heat and mass in the ocean. Outside the region of significant wind forcing, the mass source leads to a convergent geostrophic flow, which drives the meridional heat flux and causes warming to the east of the main wind anomaly. West of the main anomaly the wind and geostrophic divergence cause advective cooling. The result is that the main SST anomaly appears to move eastward. Since the direct SST forcing drives the anomalous wind, surface wind convergence, and associated precipitation, these fields are seen also to move eastward.

Description: The time history of upper-ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific has been used as a predictor in a statistical prediction scheme to forecast SST anomalies in this region. The temperature variations were taken from the output of an oceanic general circulation model that was forced by observed winds for the period 1961 to 1985. Since such model data are presently used as initial conditions in prediction experiments with coupled ocean–atmosphere models, it is of particular interest to investigate up to what lead time tropical Pacific SST is predictable without the coupling of an atmosphere model to the ocean model. We compared our results with those obtained by the persistence forecast and with those obtained by using the wind stresses themselves as predictors in a statistical forecast model. It is shown that using the upper ocean temperatures from the ocean model forced by observed winds gives significantly better skills at lead times of 6 to 12 months compared to persistence and to the pure wind-stress model. Off-equatorial heat content anomalies at 5°N are shown to contribute significantly to the predictability at these lead times, while those at 12°N do not.