ALBERT

Description: A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.

Description: We study the onset of a pure Marangoni convection in a liquid layer with two deformable interfaces in the no-gravity environment. Both oscillatory and stationary instabilities are considered for a wide range of parameters. It is shown that only stationary instability is possible when surface tension at the colder interface is lower than that at the hotter one. Oscillatory instability tends to disappear and to be replaced by the stationary instability with increase of the Prandtl number and decrease of surface tension at the colder interface.

Description: The U.S. upper Midwest was subjected to severe flooding during the summer of 1993. Heavy rainfall in the Mississippi River basin from April through July caused flooding on many Midwest rivers, including the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas Rivers. The flood crest of 15.1 m at St. Louis, Missouri, on 1 August 1993 was the highest ever measured, surpassing the previous record of 13.2 m set on 28 April 1973. Damage estimates include at least 47 flood-related deaths and a total damage cost of $12 billion. Remotely sensed imagery of severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest was obtained under cloud-free skies on 29 July 1993 by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Airborne Simulator (MAS). The MAS is a newly developed scanning spectrometer with 50 spectral bands in the wavelength range 0.55-14.3 micrometers. Estimation of the total flooded area in the MAS scene acquired near St. Louis was accomplished by comparing the MAS scene to a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) scene of the same area acquired on 14 April 1984 in nonflood conditions. For comparison, the MAS band centered at 0.94 micrometers and the TM band centered at 1.65 micrometers were selected because of the high contrast seen in these bands between land and water-covered surfaces. An estimate of the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes was obtained by developing land/water brightness thresholds from histograms of the MAS and TM digital image data. Afetr applying the thresholds, the difference between the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes, and hence the flooded area in the MAS scene, was found to be about 396 sq km, or about 153 square miles.

Description: Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Description: A consistent solution of the radiative transfer equation characterizing photon transport in a semi-infinite medium of refractive index greater than or equal to one is obtained following the method of Sobolev. Fresnel specular reflection, Snell's law and isotropic scattering are assumed. An algorithm is developed and its accuracy is demonstrated. A numerical Laplace transform inversion leads to an efficient evaluation for the interior flux and source function distributions.

Description: The lower stratospheric variability of equatorial water vapor, measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), follows an annual cycle modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation. At levels higher in the stratosphere, water vapor measurements exhibit a semi-annual oscillatory signal with the largest amplitudes at 2.2 and 1hPa. Zonal-mean cross sections of MLS water vapor are consistent with previous satellite measurements from the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) and the stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) instruments in that they show water vapor increasing upwards and the polewards from a well defined minimum in the tropics. The minimum values vary in height between the retrieved 46 and 22hPa pressure levels.

Description: The absolute rate constant for the reaction O((3)P) + HOBr has been measured between T = 233K and 423K using the discharge-flow kinetic technique coupled to mass spectrometric detection. The value of the rate coefficient at room temperature is (2.5 +/- 0.6) x 10(exp -11)cu cm/molecule/s and the derived Arrhenius expression is (1.4 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp -10) exp((-430 +/- 260)/T)cu cm/molecule/s. From these rate data the atmospheric lifetime of HOBr with respect to reaction with O((3)P) is about 0.6h at z = 25 km which is comparable to the photolysis lifetime based on recent measurements of the UV cross section for HOBr. Implications for HOBr loss in the stratosphere have been tested using a 1D photochemical box model. With the inclusion of the rate parameters and products for the O + HOBr reaction, calculated concentration profiles of BrO increase by up to 33% around z = 35 km. This result indicates that the inclusion of the O + HOBr reaction in global atmospheric chemistry models may have an impact on bromine partitioning in the middle atmosphere.

Description: Results are reported of the Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE) aboard USML-1 Spacelab. Steady and transient thermocapillary flows were investigated in a 10 cm dia. circular container filled with 10 Cs silicone oil. The velocity and temperature fields were studied in detail under various conditions. It is shown in this paper how the Marangoni number affects the velocity field. A numerical analysis of the flows was also conducted and its results were compared to the experimental data. Good agreement is shown.

Description: A diagnostic analysis of the VVP (volume velocity processing) retrieval method is presented, with emphasis on understanding the technique as a linear, multivariate regression. Similarities and differences to the velocity-azimuth display and extended velocity-azimuth display retrieval techniques are discussed, using this framework. Conventional regression diagnostics are then employed to quantitatively determine situations in which the VVP technique is likely to fail. An algorithm for preparation and analysis of a robust VVP retrieval is developed and applied to synthetic and actual datasets with high temporal and spatial resolution. A fundamental (but quantifiable) limitation to some forms of VVP analysis is inadequate sampling dispersion in the n space of the multivariate regression, manifest as a collinearity between the basis functions of some fitted parameters. Such collinearity may be present either in the definition of these basis functions or in their realization in a given sampling configuration. This nonorthogonality may cause numerical instability, variance inflation (decrease in robustness), and increased sensitivity to bias from neglected wind components. It is shown that these effects prevent the application of VVP to small azimuthal sectors of data. The behavior of the VVP regression is further diagnosed over a wide range of sampling constraints, and reasonable sector limits are established.

Description: Analysis of the version 16 Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) CH4 data shows that this long-lived trace gas is well correlated with potential vorticity (PV) computed from National Meteorological Center balanced winds. Analyzing late September and October 1992 data, we show that very low CH4 values are confined to the interior of a vortex edge defined by the maximum gradient in PV. The CH4 and HF time tendency is used to estimate the descent rate in the Antarctic vortex. After removing a component of the trend correlated with the HALOE sampling pattern, we compute the lower stratosphere vertical descent rates and net heaing rates in the spring Antarctic vortex. Our computations of the spring Antarctic vortex heating rates give -0.5 to -0.1 K/day. Over the winter season, the overall lower stratospheric descent rate averages about 1.8-1.5 km/month. These computations are in line with radiative transfer estimates of the heating and descent rate. The HALOE data thus appear to be consistent with the picture of an isolated lower stratospheric Antarctic vortex.

Description: Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Description: Global sets of surface radiation budget (SRB) have been obtained from satellite programs. These satellite-based estimates need validation with ground-truth observations. This study validates the estimates of monthly mean surface insolation contained in two satellite-based SRB datasets with the surface measurements made at worldwide radiation stations from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). One dataset was developed from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) using the algorithm of Li et al. (ERBE/SRB), and the other from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) using the algorithm of Pinker and Laszlo and that of Staylor (GEWEX/SRB). Since the ERBE/SRB data contain the surface net solar radiation only, the values of surface insolation were derived by making use of the surface albedo data contained GEWEX/SRB product. The resulting surface insolation has a bias error near zero and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) between 8 and 28 W/sq m. The RMSE is mainly associated with poor representation of surface observations within a grid cell. When the number of surface observations are sufficient, the random error is estimated to be about 5 W/sq m with present satellite-based estimates. In addition to demonstrating the strength of the retrieving method, the small random error demonstrates how well the ERBE derives from the monthly mean fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). A larger scatter is found for the comparison of transmissivity than for that of insolation. Month to month comparison of insolation reveals a weak seasonal trend in bias error with an amplitude of about 3 W/sq m. As for the insolation data from the GEWEX/SRB, larger bias errors of 5-10 W/sq m are evident with stronger seasonal trends and almost identical RMSEs.

Description: Participants in this workshop, which convened in Venice, Italy, 6-8 May 1993, met to consider the current state of climate monitoring programs and instrumentation for the purpose of climatological prediction on short-term (seasonal to interannual) timescales. Data quality and coverage requirements for definition of oceanographic heat and momentum fluxes, scales of inter- and intra-annual variability, and land-ocean-atmosphere exchange processes were examined. Advantages and disadvantages of earth-based and spaceborne monitoring systems were considered, as were the structures for future monitoring networks, research programs, and modeling studies.

Description: The work described here makes it possible to identify anomalous wind behavior such as the nighttime meridional wind abatements that occur at F-region heights. A new analysis technique uses a simple empirical wind model to simulate measurements of 'normal' winds (as measured by the Neutral Atmosphere and Temperature Experiment (NATE) that flew on the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E)) to highlight anomalous wind measurements made by the satellite while in circular orbits at 270-290 km altitude. Our approach is based on the recognition that the 'in orbit' wind variation must show the combined effects of the diurnal wind variation as seen from the ground with the latitude variation of the satellite orbit. For the data period 77250-78035 examined thus far, the wind abatement always occurred with a corresponding pressure or temperature maximum, and was detected on 12 out of the 36 nights with data. This study has revealed that the wind abatement occur only during or shortly after increases in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux, as indicated by daily radio flux measurements. In the past, nighttime wind reversals at mid-latitudes have been associated with increased geomagnetic activity. This study indicates that intensified solar EUV heating may be responsible for anomalous thermospheric nighttime winds at mid-latitudes.

Description: An automated scheme to characterize precipitation echoes within small windows in the radar field is presented and applied to previously subjectively classified tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia. The classification parameters are (a) E(sub e), effective efficiency, as determined by cloud-top and cloud-base water vapor saturation mixing ratios; (b) BBF, brightband fraction, as determined by the fraction of the radar echo area in which the maximal reflectivity occurs within +/- 1.5 km of the 0 C isotherm level; and (c) del(sub r) Z, radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km). These classification criteria were applied to tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia, and to winter convective rain cloud systems in Israel. Both sets of measurements were made with nearly identical networks of C-band radars and rain gauge networks. The results of the application of these objective classification criteria to several independently predetermined rain regimes in Darwin have shown that better organized rain systems have smaller del(sub r) Z and larger BBF. Similarly, smaller del(sub r)Z and larger BBF were also observed from maritime rain cloud systems, as compared to continental rain cloud systems with the same degree of organization. Continental rain cloud system, regardless of their degree of organization, have larger depths, as expressed by E(sub e). The rainfall analyses presented in this study are based exclusively on rain gauge measurements, while radar information was used only to classify the individual gauge measurements.

Description: Results of a simulation study on the effects of optically thick stratospheric sulfate aerosol layers on the backscattered ultraviolet radiation (buv) in the range 256-340 nm are presented. In general, the increased Mie scattering produced by the aerosols results in an enhancement of the buv radiation. The increase is approximately linear with optical depth and strongly depends on solar zenith angle and aerosol layer altitude in relation to the ozone maximum. The effect is greatest at those wavelenghts whose contribution functions peak in the vicinity of the densest part of the aerosol layer. The aerosol induced perturbation of the buv field affects the ozone profile retrieval from space measurements by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Experiment (SBUV) experiment. In the tropical stratosphere, the retrieved ozone between 25 and 45 km is underestimated as a result of increased Mie scattering. On the other hand, an algorithm related effect causes the retrieved ozone below 25 km to be overestimated by an amount similar to the stratospheric deficit.

Description: Application of the window probability matching method to radar and rain gauge data that have been objectively classified into different rain types resulted in distinctly different Z(sub e)-R relationships for the various classifications. These classification parameters, in addition to the range from the radar, are (a) the horizontal radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km); (b) the cloud depth, as scaled by the effective efficiency; (c) the brightband fraction within the radar field window; and (d) the height of the freezing level. Combining physical parameters to identify the type of precipitation and statistical relations most appropriate to the precipitation types results in considerable improvement of both point and areal rainfall measurements. A limiting factor in the assessment of the improved accuracy is the inherent variance between the true rain intensity at the radar measured volume and the rain intensity at the mouth of the rain guage. Therefore, a very dense rain gauge network is required to validate most of the suggested realized improvement. A rather small sample size is required to achieve a stable Z(sub e)-R relationship (standard deviation of 15% of R for a given Z(sub e)) -- about 200 mm of rainfall accumulated in all guages combined for each classification.

Description: Potential flows may be utilized to represent motions produced in pulsating bulbs. While the initial bulb shape may be arbitrary, sequential shapes are related by affine transformations. Two components appear in the distribution of pressure, one dependent on the instantaneous velocity and the other on the acceleration. For flows with stationary streamlines the inertial impedance is that of a simple mass, and is proportional to the first moment of the actual mass of fluid contained within the bulb. Examples treated are: (1) Expanding and collapsing circular cylinders, and (2) elliptical cylinders in which the perimeter is held constant. The thickness of the pulsatile laminar boundary layer is found to be approximately on millimeter for conditions in the vicinity of the heart. Conditions for separation and turbulence differ from those in steady flow.

Description: The results of a parametric study on the entrance flow region in a gas core nuclear reactor are presented. The physical system is modeled as laminar confined, coaxial flow with heat generation in the inner fluid. The governing equations include the boundary layer approximations and the assumptions of only radial radiative transport of energy represented as an energy diffusion term. The Von Mises transformation and a zeta transformation are used to transform the equations into nonlinear nonhomogeneous convective-diffusion equations. A unique combination of forward and backward difference equations which yields accurate results at moderate computational times, is used in the numerical method. Results show that the rapidly accelerating, heat generating inner stream actually shrinks in radius as it expands axially.

Description: A world wide system of 5 geostationary satellites is being established with a primary objective: the estimation of winds from cloud motions. A series of aircraft experiments were carried out to perform an in situ verification of the satellite cloud winds, under undisturbed to moderately disturbed oceanic weather regimes.

Description: The transient response of an elastic cylindrical shell immersed in an acoustic media that is engulfed by a plane wave is determined numerically. The method applies to the USA-STAGS code which utilizes the finite element method for the structural analysis and the doubly asymptotic approximation for the fluid-structure interaction. The calculations are compared to an exact analysis for two separate loading cases: a plane step wave and an exponentially decaying plane wave.

Description: The inherent tolerance for nuclear radiation makes fluidic devices candidates for nuclear rocket control systems. Also, they are being considered for supersonic jet engine inlet control because of their high temperature and vibration tolerance. Three new control components being considered for these applications are described. A fluidic circuit to control a pneumatic stepping motor for nuclear rocket control drum actuation is discussed. An all-fluidic sensor being developed for determining the position of the normal shock in the inlet of a supersonic jet engine is outlined. A new vortex valve configuration is developed to prevent supersonic jet engine inlet unstarts by regulating bypass flow.

Description: Calculation procedures for compressible turbulent boundary layers were based upon techniques, modeling constants, etc., developed originally for the low speed case. Significant differences and new or altered physics which occur in the compressible case were considered, as compared with the low speed situation. Possible pitfalls and sources of inaccuracy in the calculations were indicated.

Description: The statistical results of 8 monthly mean simulation experiments with the GISS general circulation model are summarized for the Northern Hemisphere in terms of the fields of sea-level pressure, 500-mb. height, and 850-mb. temperature.

Description: A study was conducted to identify problems related to sampling the Earth's radiant energy budget and to define a satellite system with sufficient sampling to satisfy science requirements on global, zonal, and regional scales.

Description: A general methodology for establishing and testing remote sensing inversion procedures has yielded a simple procedure for inverting BUV radiances.

Description: A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four-dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiometric measurements from polar-orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST-6 data from the NOAA-4 and Nimbus-6 satellites. Experiments are reported in which the state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data and in which different methods were used for their assimilation. Data from the NOAA-4 satellite only, from Nimbus-6 only, and from both satellites together were used; the methods tested include different variations of the statistical method as well as more traditional methods. The conclusions are that: (1) satellite-derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two-to-three day range; (2) this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available; and (3) the assimilation method plays a major role in the magnitude of the impact for the same data.

Description: Weighting functions were developed which express the water vapor information content of microwave radiometric measurements. Retrievals of water vapor profiles are performed using these weighting functions.

Description: The potential accuracy of an active multifrequency millimeter-wave technique for the remote measurement of atmospheric pressure at the Earth's surface was investigated by numerical simulation.

Description: Equivalent black body temperatures of clouds around tropical cyclones are used in a statistical technique to forecast changes in maximum winds for 24 hours in advance.

Description: A system of differential equations is integrated numerically in space and time over several different matrices in an effort to simulate the atmospheric wave structures which organize severe local storms. Preliminary results with case studies indicate that dynamical fields produced by the numerical simulations can be translated into very fine scale space and time zones where severe storm forecast indices can be developed. These fine scale indices are now available in real-time when run on Langley's STAR 100 computer system.

Description: Acoustic-gravity waves were detected by a ground-based ionospheric sounding array, and the location of the wave generation source was determined by a reverse group ray path computation. Computed sources of these waves were located near locations where tornadoes touched down from 2 to 4 hours later. It is suggested that the overshooting and ensuing collapse of convective turrets may be responsible for generating the acoustic-gravity waves observed.

Description: Digital infrared data from a geostationary satellite are used to study thunderstorm top growth rates and other parameters in relation to the occurrence of severe weather on the ground. Both the rate of upward growth of the thunderstorm top and the maximum height reached are shown to be useful parameters in the detection of severe thunderstorms.

Description: Several new climatological patterns become apparent from the analysis of satellite-derived global oceanic rainfall maps. Five interesting features are briefly discussed.

Description: Two model simulations were calculated with the GISS general circulation model corresponding to hypothetical maximum and minimum January sea ice conditions in the north and south polar regions. Results indicate that there were large differences in the Northern Hemisphere circulation between maximum and minimum ice conditions in zonally averaged temperature, vertically averaged eddy sensible heat flux, and mean 500 mb geopotential height. The calculated differences are found to be greater than the inherent variability of the model.

Description: Operation Aurorozone was a highly coordinated sequence of 33 rocket flights launched from Poker Flat, Alaska, in September 1976. The effects of aurorally produced X-rays on stratospheric neutral and electrical parameters was studied. The sun/weather coupling between upper and lower regions of the atmosphere is thought to be related to these middle atmospheric parameters. The results show a consistent depletion of ozone above 1 mb during three independent auroral events, with magnitudes in excess of those expected from the measured energy radiation sources. Simultaneously, enhanced conductivity changes were observed to occur in accord with the measured ionizing radiations.

Description: A new planetary boundary layer parameterization was developed. Tests included forecasting experiments.

Description: Numerical experiments show that use of a potential enstrophy conserving scheme drastically improves numerical simulation of flow near steep mountains.

Description: Limited information about the boundary layer stratification is obtained from remote infrared spectral measurements in the water vapor window region. A global map of the average strength of the water vapor spectral lines in the 9 micron window region derived from Nimbus 4 IRIS data is presented to indicate this boundary layer information. Presence of deep convective layer in the intertropical convergence zone and trade wind inversion over the subtropical oceanic high pressure systems are appropriately revealed in this map.

Description: Aircraft observed radiances were used to measure surface wind speed and aerosol thickness. Results show that the surface wind speed is related to the width of the glitter pattern.

Description: The ADAPT empirical analysis programs, based on finding an optimal representation of the data in the Karhunen-Loeve sense, were applied to 120 observations of twenty-nine 1973 and 1974 Pacific tropical cyclones. Each observation consists of NIMBUS-5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) radiation measurements at 267 grid points covering and surrounding the tropical cyclone plus nine other non-satellite derived descriptors. Analysis and forecast algorithms to estimate storm motion and intensity were developed for times ranging from the observation time up to 72 hours later. The 24 hr wind speed forecasts with an accuracy of 11.7 knots and position forecasts with accuracies 15% better than persistence were demonstrated using independent tests.

Description: Data from the Nimbus-5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) were used to calculate total storm latent heat release (LHR) and other precipitation parameters for over 100 satellite observations of Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones. The data are useful in determining the rainfall characteristics of these storms and appear to be potentially useful in monitoring them.

Description: A brief description is given of significant research accomplishments and of planned research on atmospheric variability and the interaction of severe storms with their environment using atmospheric variability experiments data. Use of the results for the assessment of satellite capabilities are described briefly.

Description: Weather services to severe storms, turbulence, icing, visibility, and lightning are discussed. Each weather phenomenon area was explored in terms of needs, problems related to providing services, and availability of timely and appropriate information.

Description: Aircraft models were designed to solve aircraft lightning, severe storms, turbulence, icing, and visibility problems. Analytical modeling, wind tunnel simulation tests, ground tests, and in-flight tests were conducted.

Description: Reduced visibility as a human factors problem was studied in terms of the number of lives lost and cost of aircraft accidents and incidents. Human factors in flight through turbulence in detection and avoidance techniques, pilot and crew procedures for handling workloads and distractions caused by turbulence, and aircraft handling techniques for safe flights through turbulence are investigated. Education and training were reviewed in icing problems on aircraft. Pilots failure to recognize and detect wind shear in severe storms is examined. The pilots avoidance of lightning is discussed from the human factors point of view.

Description: Severe storms and turbulence, icing, visibility, and lightning are discussed in new programs on aircraft operations. The education of pilots and ground service personnel are reviewed. More available information of weather programs and services are examined.

Description: Lightning protection technology as applied to aviation and identifying these technology needs are presented. The flight areas of technical needs include; (1) the need for In-Flight data on lightning electrical parameters; (2) technology base and guidelines for protection of advanced systems and structures; (3) improved laboratory test techniques; (4) analysis techniques for predicting induced effects; (5) lightning strike incident data from General Aviation; (6) lightning detection systems; (7) obtain pilot reports of lightning strikes; and (8) better training in lightning awareness. The nature of each problem, timeliness, impact of solutions, degree of effort required, and the roles of government and industry in achieving solutions are discussed.

Description: Icing parameters have created problems and the problem areas that still exist today are presented. The problem areas include; (1) instrumentation; (2) test facilities; (3) weather forecasting of icing conditions; (4) meteorological design criteria; and (5) meteorological data.

Description: The effects of atmospheric turbulence are discussed. Aircraft design and aircraft operations are reviewed. Turbulence in terms of intensity and scale in design considerations was examined. Turbulence models were used in the form of discrete gusts, spectral distributions, and probability distributions. Various aspects of the design and operations problems, simulation and training factors of pilots, and weather services and forecasts are reported.

Description: In the absence of gravity, stirring in a liquid is suppressed because of density differences caused by thermal or compositional gradients. However, other mechanisms resulting in natural convection in a microgravity environment exist. One of the most important mechanisms for liquid metals is surface tension driven convection, which becomes predominant in the low gravity environment. In this case, surface tension differences caused by compositional or temperature gradients have been demonstrated to cause stirring in liquids during experiments performed onboard Skylab. Compositional gradients were created by adding a soap solution to a large water globule, which caused vigorous fluid motion for some moments after the addition.

Description: Main features of solar activity are described in relation to solar and geophysical forecasting. Spectroheliograms, radio and X-ray data, white light coronal observations, particles data, photospheric images, and photospheric magnetic fields are among the types of data used to identify the active centers and flares of the Sun. Forecasting and identification of geomagnetic activity is also discussed. The forecasting technique is described along with the types of users.

Description: This numerical prediction summary indicates the wide variety of such procedures which are available. Most procedures have detailed user manuals, and in many cases the codes are available. Many of the special effects treated by various methods (such as nonequilibrium or equilibrium chemistry, transition, roughness etc.) are indicated.

Description: From comparisons of high speed data with low speed closure procedures using variable mean density, there does not appear to be any appreciable influence of compressibility upon turbulent shear stress modeling in compressible turbulent boundary layers, even for extreme cases such as Mach 14 to 20 with a change in density across the layer of up to a factor of 100. Other evidence of apparent lack of compressibility caused new physics which may alter the shear stress for the compressible boundary layer cases including: (1) fluctuation Mach number was generally less than 1; (2) the shear stress distribution through the boundary layer was not a function of Mach number for zero pressure gradient flows; (3) the Morkovin hypothesis was valid up to Mach 5 (based on fluctuation data); (4) profile N power was not a function of Mach number, at least up to Mach 10; and (5) the nondimensional burst period was approximately the same as that for low speed.

Description: Basic differential equations governing compressible turbulent boundary layer flow are reviewed, including conservation of mass and energy, momentum equations derived from Navier-Stokes equations, and equations of state. Closure procedures were broken down into: (1) simple or zeroth-order methods, (2) first-order or mean field closure methods, and (3) second-order or mean turbulence field methods.

Description: Method of relating wide field of view radiometer measurements from satellites to the Earth longwave flux field is simulated and is used to obtain zonal and global averages of longwave (LW) flux for ESSA 7.

Description: Monthly zonal albedo determinations made by Nimbus-6 ERB were used to form monthly zonal cloud fractions. The Fall-Winter-Spring seasons of 1975-76 are compared with the same seasons 1976-77.

Description: Statistics compiled from Nimbus-6 temperature retrievals processed during the 18 August-4 September 1975 DST-5, and the 1 February-4 March 1976 DST-6 are addressed. All statistics were compiled from samples of colocated satellite sounding and radiosonde measurements. The colocation window is 222 km in space and 6 hours in time.

Description: Convergence was determined from wind vectors derived from cloudtracking on 5 minute interval SMS-2 data using the AOIPS.

Description: Equations are presented for the growth or decay rates of moving and deforming vortex sheets (gust fronts) and shock waves. The equations exhibit a cross-coupling between these two types of surface discontinuity.

Description: Stereographic pairs of SMS/GOES images, generated simultaneously by the spin-scan cameras of each of two geostationary satellites (SMS 1 and SMS2), separated by 32 degrees of longitude on February 1, 1975, were analyzed photogrametrically to yield cloud heights with a two-sigma uncertainty of 500 meters. These cloud heights compare favorably with heights of the same clouds measured by radar and IR methods. The same SMS image pairs were used to measure mountaintop heights with a mean deviation of 0.24 km from cartographic values.

Description: One and two-dimensional spectral analyses were performed on the GISS general circulation model. The one-dimensional results imply that low eddy kinetic energy is caused by low conversions from the zonal mean kinetic energy. The two-dimensional results confirm that low wave number spectral coefficients approach the predictability limit slower than high wave number coefficients and suggest ways of estimating the rate of approach to the predictability limit.

Description: Simulation studies of the ERBSS scanner were performed to determine the sensitivity of the inferred flux at the top of the atmosphere to radiation directional model errors for candidate scan plane orientations.

Description: Two programs involving over 100 commercial aircraft were initiated to provide global high resolution in-situ windfield and temperature data during the FGGE. The concepts developed for these programs could have important implications for both meteorology and aviation in the near term.

Description: A series of Data Systems Tests conducted by NASA as a precursor to the First GARP Global Experiment is described. Included is a description of the global data sets acquired and the influence the tests had on the observing system, the data processing plans and research activities of the Global Experiment itself.

Description: An advanced Man-Interactive image and data processing system (AOIPS) was developed to extract basic meteorological parameters from satellite data and to perform further analyses. The errors in the satellite derived cloud wind fields for tropical cyclones are investigated. The propagation of these errors through the AOIPS system and their effects on the analysis of horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are evaluated.

Description: Diagnostic solutions are presented for the displacement velocity of a storm vortex and the velocity of the centroid of the storm's convection.

Description: Two complementary techniques, semi-empirical quantum mechanical calculations and empirical central field pair potential calculations were used in developing a model of the interaction of water with simple surfaces.

Description: Methods were developed for calculating radiative terms with relatively high accuracy but with sufficient speed, so that they can be used in numerical atmospheric models or in high volume processing of satellite measured radiances for remote sensing of atmospheric and surface parameters. Comparison with commonly used methods in both types of applications indicate improvements in calculating transmittances of factors between two and three, and in calculating radiances and cooling rates of factors between two and seven.

Description: The Mt. Agung volcanic eruption in 1963 is used as a test case to examine the climatic response to a global-scale radiative perturbation of the earth's atmosphere.

Description: Several feedback mechanisms between ocean and atmosphere are discussed, which seem to have a decisive influence on the interannual variability of the atmosphere, and on climatic fluctuations of a time scale of 10 to 50 years. Satellite requirements to monitor these feedback processes are outlined briefly.

Description: The Nimbus 6 ERB scanner data were conducted to support the development of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System project. The ERB data were processed in terms of Earth targets and angular bins and used to evaluate currently available directional radiation models for the longwave and shortwave spectral ranges. Results indicate that available longwave models are adequate for the most part while available shortwave models are inadequate. An effort was initiated to develop improved shortwave models for various cloud conditions and various surface types for cloud free conditions.

Description: Clear-column temperature profiles with a vertical resolution of 2 km in the troposphere and an accuracy of 1.5 K are obtained in the presence of multiple layers of broken clouds using narrow band-pass measurements carefully selected in the 4.18 and 15 micron regions of the CO2 bands.

Description: A two-layer, mesoscale boundary layer model is being developed and validated against San Francisco Bay Area observational data.

Description: A program was undertaken to obtain data on wind generated ocean waves in hurricanes by remote sensing techniques. The sensor, a synthetic aperture radar, has collected the first data ever on the directional wave climate throughout a hurricane. This information was found to have inconsistencies with present hurricane wave generation models.

Description: The moderating effects of Lake Apopka, Florida, on downwind surface temperatures were evaluated under cold air advective conditions. Point temperature measurements north and south of the lake and data obtained from the NOAA satellite and a thermal scanner flown at 1.6 km, indicate that, under conditions of moderate winds (approximately 4m/sec), surface temperatures directly downwind may be higher than surrounding surface temperatures by as much as 5 C. With surface wind speed less than 1m/sec, no substantial temperature effects were observed. Results of this study are being used in land use planning, lake level control and in agriculture for selecting planting sites.

Description: Comparison of cloud-top topography and rainfall rates at the surface revealed that the areas of heavy rain are located where there are depressions at the anvil top. It was also found that the Z-R relationships show a large scatter when vertical and/or horizontal air currents are strong. Results of this research led to Project NIMROD proposed to begin in May 1978.

Description: A systematic approach to the study of atmospheric turbulent motion is discussed in terms of weather modification. The background of cloud physics, and the mixing process are described. A zero-g study is proposed to enable the basic experimental data to be collected so that theory may be developed to generalize results for practical applications.

Description: Problems related to visibility and some possible solutions are expressed. Automatic weather stations, aircrew education and training, slant range visibility, twelve airports planning, and designs for new runway guidance are discussed in improving visibility.

Description: Smaller scale severe storms with the expectation that the larger storms associated weather-hazard-to-aircraft problems are discussed. Improvements in the detection capability for hail, turbulence, wind shear, and lightning are reported. Improvements in communications with limited surveillance capabilities are summarized. Education and training of pilots in severe storms are examined. Weather forecasts improvements by increasing accuracy in the short term are described. Aircraft operations, aircraft design, weather services, data acquisition and utilization are reviewed.

Description: A representative of the U.S. Army Research and Technology Laboratories was called upon to brief the workshop on results of flight test experiments with ice-phobic coatings applied to helicopter rotor blades. An overview of the Applied Technology Laboratory helicopter icing R and D program is presented.

Description: Various government agencies have put forth effort to enable the prediction of what lightning current will do to aircraft avionic systems. Ongoing and future efforts of predicting avionic voltages and currents caused by electromagnetic fields external to the aircraft are illustrated. The Intrasystem Analysis Program (IAP) was put to use to predict lightning-induced voltages on avionic systems. Presently funded programs are investigating the modification nonmetallic composite materials will cause to the metallic IAP program predictions. The various factors involved in designing prediction techniques are discussed.

Description: Lightning hazards and, more generally, aircraft static electricity are discussed by a representative for the Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory. An overview of these atmospheric electricity hazards to aircraft and their systems is presented with emphasis on electrical and electronic subsystems. The discussion includes reviewing some of the characteristics of lightning and static electrification, trends in weather and lightning-related mishaps, some specific threat mechanisms and susceptible aircraft subsystems and some of the present technology gaps. A roadmap (flow chart) is presented to show the direction needed to address these problems.

Description: An overview of the development of instrumental methods of making cloud height and visibility measurements is presented. The limitations of these measurements are discussed.

Description: A representative of the NASA Lewis Research Center presented a discussion which concentrated on the meteorology of icing and its measurements. Other areas addressed were: test facilities, ice protection systems, and the effects of ice on performance.

Description: An overview of severe storms given by a representative of the U.S. Department of Commerce/NOAA and how they affect aviation is presented. What is being done and the organizations responsible for the work in this area are briefly discussed. A partial list of the things that the representative feels need to be done is also presented.

Description: Flying qualities are defined as those airplane characteristics which govern the ease or precision with which the pilot can accomplish the mission. Some atmospheric disturbance modelling requirements for aircraft flying qualities applications are reviewed. It is concluded that some simplifications are justified in identifying the primary influence on aircraft response and pilot control. It is recommended that a universal environmental model be developed, which could form the reference for different applications. This model should include the latest information on winds, turbulence, gusts, visibility, icing and precipitation. A chosen model would be kept by a national agency and updated regularly by feedback from users. A user manual is believed to be an essential part of such a model.

Description: A representative of the Air Weather Service, USAF addressed the workshop and gave an assessment of the present state of aviation meteorology and a prognosis of the future. Three categories of meteorological support to aviation systems are considered and discussed; (1) terminal weather; (2) the winds for flight planning; and (3) en route flight hazards.

Description: Three demonstrations of scientific concepts concerning liquids were performed during the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project mission. Chemical foaming, spreading of liquids, and capillary wicking were the subjects of each demonstration photographed in space. The results clearly illustrated the basic principles, and films suitable for educational uses are now available from the first author.

Description: A brief outline about the theory of planetary waves is given and a review of space-time analysis, mainly at the 500 mbar pressure level, is presented. This analysis gives evidence that broad spectral bands of two types of waves exist within the troposphere: ultralong waves with zonal wave numbers M or approximately equal to 4 and periods tau or approximately equal to 5 days, propagating mainly to the west, and synoptic scale waves with M or approximately equal to 3 and tau or approximately equal to 10 days, propagating mainly to the east. These waves are generated by internal turbulent processes within the atmosphere and are quasi-persistent with lifetimes of several periods. It is shown that solar activity cannot generate planetary waves of significant amplitudes, and that the observed 'Sun-weather effects' can be interpreted within the framework of these internally generated planetary waves without any trigger mechanism from outside the atmosphere. It is suggested that a better knowledge of these persistent ultralong waves may help to improve long range weather forecasts.

Description: Physical mechanisms for coupling the energetics of solar activity to meteorological responses are reviewed. Although several hypotheses have been advanced, none can be said to be sufficiently complete to be applied to weather or climate prediction. Solar activity indicators potentially useful for forecasting are identified, including sunspots, solar flares, and magnetic sector boundary crossings. Additional experiments, studies, and analyses are required before Sun-weather concepts can be utilized for predicting meteorological responses.

Description: Solar variability influences upon terrestrial weather and climate are addressed. Both the positive and negative findings are included and specific predictions, areas of further study, and recommendations listed.

Description: The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

Description: An experimental and theoretical program was undertaken to assist in the design of geophysical fluid flow model experiments for Spacelab. Two new nonintrusive measurement techniques were developed. A theoretical calculation was carried out to guide the design of a proposed atmospheric general circulation model experiment.

Description: Results from two investigations in modeling cloud cover are presented. These are a univariate model and a multivariate model for cloud cover.

Description: The theory of deconvolution of wide field of view Earth radiation measurements is applied to Nimbus 6 ERB data. Results with a 15 deg resolution are presented.

Description: A large number of electrochemical concentration cell (EDD) ozonesondes were calibrated relative to ultraviolet photometric absorption (254 nm) to determine their precision and accuracy. The average agreement with UV photometry was found to be good, but with considerable variation from one ECC ozonesonde to another. Applying individual calibrations to vertical ozone profiles reduced the systematic differences between ECC ozonesonde total ozone values and Dobson spectrophotometric determinations of the same quantity, but did not improve random differences.

Description: A technique to remotely measure sea-surface temperature and salinity (for concentrations greater than 5 parts-per-thousand) with accuracies of 1 C and 1 part-per-thousand, respectively, was demonstrated with a two-frequency microwave radiometer system.