ALBERT

Notes: FH Bormann, based on personal experience, recalls 55 years of association with the field of ecology, including the forces that led him into the field, research, development of the Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study, and clashes between ecology, policy, and politics. He concludes with thoughts on humankind's search for the quality of life and sustainability.

Notes: An analysis of the forces that have shaped energy and energy-related environmental policies is presented through the eyes of an active participant in their evolution over the past 53 years. The problem of self-interest in taking energy and environmental policy positions is addressed candidly. The "energy crisis" is cited as an example. Its credibility depended on excessive demand projections, coupled with erroneous assessments of US and global hydrocarbon resources and of prospects for making these resources economically recoverable through technology advances. Many energy crisis proponents benefited from the misguided government response and from the large investments in uneconomic synthetic fuel technologies. Today, proponents of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change, again claiming scientific consensus, threaten to create even greater energy market distortions at large social and economic costs. The author traces his conversion to energy contrarian to the general failure of consensus and to his own misjudgments in these critical policy areas.

Notes: Abstract The term industrial ecology was conceived to suggest that industrial activity can be thought of and approached in much the same way as a biological ecosystem and that in its ideal form it would strive toward integration of activities and cyclization of resources, as do natural ecosystems. Beyond this attractive but fuzzy notion, little has been done to explore the usefulness of the analogy. This paper examines the structural framework of biological ecology and the tools used for its study, and it demonstrates that many aspects of biological organisms and ecosystems (for example, food webs, engineering activities, community development) do have parallels in industrial organisms and ecosystems. Some of the tools of biological ecology appear to be applicable to industrial ecology, and vice versa. In a world in which no biological ecosystem is free of human influence and no industrial ecosystem is free of biological influence, it is appropriate to abandon the artificial division between the two frameworks and develop a new synthesis-Earth system ecology-as the logical construct for all of Earth's ecosystems.

Notes: Abstract This review explores the potential energy, soil, and water constraints on highly productive agricultural systems. It focuses on the process of agricultural intensification during the past 50 years, and it shows that multiple constraints-as opposed to a single constraint, such as energy-are needed to assess the future sustainability of intensive agricultural production. Recent studies documenting changes in total factor productivity based on long-term experimental trials and field surveys are discussed in detail. The results of these studies are worrisome; they indicate that degradation in soil quality and in the overall natural resource base may threaten the long-run viability of several of the world's most intensive agricultural systems. Other studies are reviewed that support a more optimistic view of resource availability and the ability of improved technology and management to overcome these physical constraints. However, the combined evidence suggests that the increase in agricultural prices required to induce the necessary changes in technology could be devastating to low-income households. Most of the world's poor consume more agricultural output than they produce, and they spend up to 80% of their incomes on food.

Notes: Abstract Although the loss of good health is inherently unpredictable, human behavior at the individual and societal levels profoundly influences the incidence and evolution of disease. In this review, we define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of biophysical aspects of global change-changes in the size, mobility, and geographic distribution of the human population; land conversion; agricultural intensification; and climate change-is then examined. Human vulnerability to disease is strongly and deleteriously influenced by many of these ongoing, intensifying alterations. We then examine threats to human defenses against disease, including immune suppression, loss of biodiversity and indigenous knowledge, and the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Effective responses will require greatly enhanced attention by and collaboration among experts in diverse academic disciplines, in the private sector, and in government worldwide.

Notes: Abstract The field of restoration ecology represents an emerging synthesis of ecological theory and concern about human impact on the natural world. Restoration ecology can be viewed as the study of how to repair anthropogenic damage to the integrity of ecological systems. However, attempts to repair ecological damage should not diminish protection of existing healthy ecosystems. Restoration ecology allows for the testing of ecological theories; however, restoration ecology is not limited to, nor is it a subdiscipline of, the field of ecology. Restoration ecology requires approaches that integrate ecology and environmental sciences, economics, sociology, and politics. This review illustrates these points by providing a conceptual map of the origin, present practices, and future directions of the field.

Notes: Abstract Increases in greenhouse gas emissions and concerns about potential global climate change are stimulating worldwide interest in the feasibility of capture, disposal, and utilization of CO2 from large energy systems. Technology to capture CO2 from power plant flue gas, while energy intensive and expensive, is commercially available. Capture from advanced combustion systems offers a further opportunity to significantly reduce cost and energy requirements of CO2 capture compared to that from today's pulverized coal power plants. No viable disposal options exist today for large quantities of captured CO2. Ocean disposal of CO2 and geological storage, especially in depleted oil and gas wells, are leading candidates. Although some niche utilization may occur, utilization seems unlikely to become a major sequestration option. Since CO2 capture and sequestration is a relatively expensive mitigation option, it can be regarded as an insurance policy. However, since CO2 mitigation options are few in number, continued research to reduce the costs of CO2 capture and to develop feasible sequestration options is important.

Notes: Abstract This paper reviews and analyzes the major recent North American studies that have compared on an environmental basis the major options used to manage the materials that comprise municipal solid waste (MSW). The reviewed studies provide quantitative comparative information on one or more of the following environmental parameters: solid waste output, energy use, and releases of pollutants to the air and water. The review finds that all of the studies support the following conclusions: Systems based on recycled production plus recycling offer substantial system-wide or "life-cycle" environmental advantages over systems based on virgin production plus either incineration or landfilling, across all four parameters examined. Only when the material recovery or waste management activities are analyzed in isolation-which does not account for the system-wide consequences of choosing one system option over another-do the virgin material-based systems appear to offer advantages over recycled production plus recycling.

Notes: Abstract Growing urban transport congestion is a major cause of environmental problems, as well as delays. One may argue that this is a classic problem of externalities and can be readily corrected by means of the price mechanism. However, although interest is increasing in pricing as an element in any solution, the answer is not so easy. Despite the falling cost of microelectronics, urban road pricing remains complex, expensive to administer, and politically controversial. Nevertheless, modeling exercises and limited practical experience suggest that most, if not all, of these problems can now be overcome and that road pricing may now be successfully implemented. But the continued opposition to road pricing makes consideration of the alternatives necessary. Indeed, both for political and economic reasons, road pricing appears much more likely to be successfully implemented as part of a package of measures than in isolation.

Notes: Abstract Global mobilization and dispersal of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) have been significantly increased by human activities. They are projected to increase even more in the future owing to growth in population and per-capita consumption of food and energy in the developing world, primarily Asia. Increased mobilization and distribution result in changes in precipitation acidity, ecosystem alkalinity and nutrient status, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations, and energy balance of the troposphere. Although increases in S and N mobilization cause increased environmental impacts, a leveling or decrease in mobilization does not result in a lessening of environmental impacts because of the accumulation of reactive S and N in environmental reservoirs. As S and N accumulate, ecosystems become saturated and S and N dispersal increases. Environmental impacts will only begin to lessen if mobilization rates decrease and as accumulated reactive S and N are converted to nonreactive forms or stored in long-term reservoirs.

Notes: Abstract The CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has increased by almost 30% since 1800. This increase is due largely to two factors: the combustion of fossil fuel and deforestation to create croplands and pastures. Deforestation results in a net flux of carbon to the atmosphere because forests contain 20-50 times more carbon per unit area than agricultural lands. In recent decades, the tropics have been the primary region of deforestation. The annual rate of CO2 released due to tropical deforestation during the early 1990s has been estimated at between 1.2 and 2.3 gigatons C. The range represents uncertainties about both the rates of deforestation and the amounts of carbon stored in different types of tropical forests at the time of cutting. An evaluation of the role of tropical regions in the global carbon budget must include both the carbon flux to the atmosphere due to deforestation and carbon accumulation, if any, in intact forests. In the early 1990s, the release of CO2 from tropical deforestation appears to have been mostly offset by CO2 uptake occurring elsewhere in the tropics, according to an analysis of recent trends in the atmospheric concentrations of O2 and N2. Interannual variations in climate and/or CO2 fertilization may have been responsible for the CO2 uptake in intact forests. These mechanisms are consistent with site-specific measurements of net carbon fluxes between tropical forests and the atmosphere, and with regional and global simulations using process-based biogeochemistry models.

Notes: Abstract This article discusses briefly the status of energy storage technologies and explores opportunities for their application in the rapidly changing US energy marketplace. Traditionally, electric utility energy storage has been used to store low-priced purchased or generated electric energy for later sale or use when energy cost would otherwise be much higher. But deregulation and restructuring in the electric industry, coupled with an expanding portfolio of storage alternatives, may lead to many new opportunities for energy storage, especially within the energy distribution infrastructure, and for maintaining or providing power quality at large customer sites. Small, modular, robust energy storage technologies could be used to solve a range of energy supply and infrastructure-related needs. This article provides quantitative evidence of utility-related energy storage status, benefits, and opportunities.

Notes: Abstract Attaining the ambient standard for tropospheric ozone has been difficult in many metropolitan areas, despite efforts to reduce anthropogenic sources of the ozone precursors, including the nitrogen oxides (NOx). Until recently, NOx emissions from biogenic sources in soils were not considered in simulations of air quality and emissions reductions scenarios, yet they may be significant, especially in agricultural regions where nitrogen fertilizers are applied. Soil NOx is produced primarily by microbial processes; production and emissions from soils are controlled by a suite of environmental variables, including inorganic nitrogen availability, water-filled pore space, and soil temperature. Agricultural management practices such as fertilization and irrigation affect these environmental variables and thus have the potential to dramatically alter soil NOx emissions. Although current models incorporate some of these variables, accurate regional estimation of soil NOx emissions requires modeling approaches that explicitly incorporate the spatial and temporal patterns of management practices, especially fertilization, as well as other environmental controlling variables such as water-filled pore space and soil temperature.

Notes: Abstract The distributed utility concept provides an alternate approach to guide electric utility expansion. The fundamental idea within the distributed utility concept is that particular local load increases can be satisfied at least cost by avoiding or delaying the more traditional investments in central generation capacity, bulk transmission expansion, and local transmission and distribution upgrades. Instead of these investments, the distributed utility concept suggests that investments in local generation, local storage, and local demand-side management technologies can be designed to satisfy increasing local demand at lower total cost. Critical to installation of distributed assets is knowledge of a utility system's area- and time-specific costs. This review introduces the distributed utility concept, describes an application of ATS costs to investment planning, discusses the various motivations for further study of the concept, and reviews relevant literature. Future research directions are discussed.

Notes: Abstract Assessments of global coal, oil, and natural gas occurrences usually focus on conventional hydrocarbon reserves, i.e. those occurrences that can be exploited with current technology and present market conditions. The focus on reserves seriously underestimates long-term global hydrocarbon availability. Greenhouse gas emissions based on these estimates may convey the message that the world is running out of fossil fuels, and as a result, emissions would be reduced automatically. If the vast unconventional hydrocarbon occurrences are included in the resource estimates and historically observed rates of technology change are applied to their mobilization, the potential accessibility of fossil sources increases dramatically with long-term production costs that are not significantly higher than present market prices. Although the geographical hydrocarbon resource distribution varies significantly, a regional breakdown for 11 world regions indicates that neither hydrocarbon resource availability nor costs are likely to become forces that automatically would help wean the global energy system from the use of fossil fuel during the next century.

Notes: Abstract The costs and performance of renewable energy technologies have reached the stage where the number of economical applications in developing countries is increasing, particularly in the grid and off-grid markets for electricity. The paper provides a review of policies. The conclusions are as follows. (a) Investments in renewable energy should be helped by competition and regulatory reform in the energy industry, in the electricity industry in particular, since such reforms should reduce the subsidies, which historically have permeated the countries' industries, for electricity production from fossil and hydro resources. (b) The scope for further cost reductions is appreciable in all key technologies. There are positive externalities to investment, in the sense that each generation of investments is acting to reduce the costs of future generations; such benefits ideally need to be recognized in tax and regulatory policies and in budgetary allocations for research and development (R&D) and education and training. (c) The environmental advantages of renewable energy will become more apparent as developing countries begin to introduce their environmental policies on fossil fuels. The paper also evaluates the economists' recommendations for carbon taxes, which would favor renewable energy investments. The case for such taxes has been widely ignored by policy makers. The paper suggests that (d ) a more workable and focused policy would be to accelerate the development of the "renewable energy option"; this would be economically beneficial in itself and at the same time would reduce the uncertainties and costs of responding to the challenges posed by climate change.

Notes: Abstract The quality of electric power depends on the power network topology, the amount of harmonic pollution injected in the network by nonlinear loads, and the severity of switching transients. Many of the loads encountered in modern power electronics, such as arc and induction furnaces, welders, motor drives, and many types of converters, cause a significant level of harmonic pollution and/or recurrent voltage transients. This paper describes the major sources of disturbances that affect electric service quality and explains the indices that help quantify the severity of disturbances. The loads that are most sensitive to power quality are discussed, and techniques intended to avoid or mitigate power quality problems are detailed. Finally, a brief survey of the cost of harmonic pollution and consumer outages is presented.

Notes: Abstract Geothermal energy technology is reviewed in terms of its current impact and future potential as an energy source. In general, the geothermal energy resource base is large and well distributed globally. Geothermal systems have a number of positive social characteristics (they are simple, safe, and adaptable systems with modular 1-50 MW [thermal (t) or electric (e)] plants capable of providing continuous baseload, load following, or peaking capacity) and benign environmental attributes (negligible emissions of CO2, SOx, NOx, and particulates, and modest land and water use). Because these features are compatible with sustainable growth of global energy supplies in both developed and developing countries, geothermal energy is an attractive option to replace fossil and fissile fuels. In 1997, about 7,000 MWe of base-load generating capacity and over 15,000 MWt of heating capacity from high-grade geothermal resources are in commercial use worldwide. A key question is whether these levels can grow to a point where geothermal energy is more universally available and thus have a significant impact on global energy supplies in the twenty-first century. Such an achievement will require the economic development of low-grade resources. The current status of commercial and emerging technologies for electric power production and direct heat use is reviewed for the major geothermal resources including hydrothermal, geopressured, hot dry rock, and magma. Typically, high-temperature resources (〉150oC) provide base-load generating capacity while lower-temperature resources provide energy for geothermally assisted heat pumps and for direct use in domestic, agricultural, and aquacultural heating applications. Critical development issues relating to resource quality and distribution, drilling costs, and reservoir productivity are discussed in the context of their economic impact on production costs. Advanced drilling and improved heat mining methods are suggested as approaches to increase the worldwide use of geothermal energy by reducing field development costs. With these improvements, lower-grade resources can compete in growing global energy markets that are currently controlled by abundant and low-cost fossil fuels.

Notes: Abstract The environmental agenda for mitigating climate change through international transfers of technology is linked with a diverse literature, reviewed here within a framework that combines technological, agent/agenda, and market/transaction perspectives. Literature that bears on international technology transfer for climate change mitigation is similar in many w ays for Russia and China: opportunities for energy efficiency and renewable energy, economic reform and restructuring, the difficulties enterprises face in responding to market conditions, international assistance policies, international joint ventures, market intermediation, and capacity building for market development. In both countries, capacity building means enhancing market-oriented capabilities in addition to technological capabilities. For Russia, institutional development is critical, such as new commercial legal codes and housing-sector changes beyond privatization. For China, technology policies and modernization programs significantly influence technology transfers.

Notes: Abstract Effective approaches to the management of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)-the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons-are fundamental to controlling nuclear proliferation and providing the basis for deep, transparent, and irreversible reductions in nuclear weapons stockpiles. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the ongoing dismantlement of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons are creating unprecedented stresses on the systems for managing these materials, as well as unprecedented opportunities for cooperation to improve these systems. In this article, we summarize the technical background to this situation, and the current and prospective security challenges posed by military stockpiles of these materials in the United States and Russia. We then review the programs in place to address these challenges, the progress of these programs to date, and the work remaining to be done, in five areas: (a) preventing theft and smuggling of nuclear warheads and fissile materials; (b) building a regime of monitored reductions in nuclear warhead and fissile material stockpiles; (c) ending further production of excess fissile materials; (d ) reducing stockpiles of excess fissile materials; and (e) avoiding economic collapse in the nuclear cities where substantial fractions of these materials and their guardians reside.

Notes: Abstract Codes of environmental management practice emerged as a tool of environmental policy in the late 1980s. Industry and other groups have developed codes for two purposes: to change the environmental behavior of participating firms and to increase public confidence in industry's commitment to environmental protection. This review examines five codes of environmental management practice: Responsible Care, the International Chamber of Commerce's Business Charter for Sustainable Development, ISO 14000, the CERES Principles, and The Natural Step. The first three codes have been drafted and promoted primarily by industry; the others have been developed by non-industry groups. These codes have spurred participating firms to introduce new practices, including the institution of environmental management systems, public environmental reporting, and community advisory panels. The extent to which codes are introducing a process of cultural change is considered in terms of four dimensions: new consciousness, norms, organization, and tools.

Notes: Abstract Yucca Mountain, NV, is being characterized for disposal of U.S. high-level nuclear waste, which consists predominantly of spent fuel from nuclear reactors and radioactive waste from reprocessing. In this paper, the program is presented in the context of global and U.S. nuclear energy systems and of international plans for high-level waste disposal. The potential impact of the proposed repository is discussed in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy's Total System Performance Assessment-Viability Assessment, the primary tool for assessing how the repository might operate.

Notes: Abstract In this paper, we estimate the value of energy technology research and development (R&D) as an insurance investment to reduce four risks to the United States. These four risks are (a) the costs of climate stabilization, (b) oil price shocks and cartel pricing, (c) urban air pollution, and (d) other energy disruptions. The total value is estimated conservatively to be 〉$12 billion/year. However, only about half of this total may be warranted because some R&D is applicable to more than one risk. Nevertheless, the total Department of Energy investment in energy technology R&D [~$1.5 billion/year in fiscal year 1999 (FY99)] seems easily justified by its insurance value alone. In fact, a larger investment might be justified, particularly in the areas related to climate change, oil price shock, and urban air pollution. This conclusion appears robust even if the private sector is assumed to be investing a comparable amount relevant to these risks. No additional benefit is credited for the value to the economy and to the competitiveness of the U.S. from better energy technologies that may result from the R&D; only the insurance value for reducing the potential cost of these four risks to society was estimated.

Notes: Abstract Climate policy is often discussed as a lever with which to bring about climate-friendly technical innovation and diffusion. However, quantitative policy assessments routinely treat technological change as a factor that is independent of policy. Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 cannot be achieved through marginal changes in the way we supply and use energy. The only path to stabilization of climate over the next century that is consistent with widely accepted population and economic-growth scenarios involves substantial decoupling of energy services from carbon emissions. The required rate of structural and technical change for such a goal has been experienced only in the wake of economic and resource crises and for periods of a decade or less. Historic rates of structural and technical change averaged over a century are far from adequate for stabilizing climate. In this paper, we review technical changes in the energy system and a few instances in which energy economic models have begun to include technical change as an endogenous feature of their assessments. Finally, we consider the implications of considering endogenous technical change for critical climate policy questions, such as the cost of control and the appropriate timing of the emissions mitigation effort.

Notes: Abstract Technology largely determines economic development and its impact on the environment; yet technological change is one of the least developed parts of existing global change models. This paper reviews two approaches developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, both of which use the concept of technological learning and aid modeling of technological change. The first approach is a micromodel ("bottom-up") of three electricity generation technologies that rigorously endogenizes technological change by incorporating both uncertainty (stochasticity) and learning into the model's decision rules. This model, with its endogenous technological change, allows radical innovations to penetrate the energy market and generates S-shaped patterns of technological diffusion that are observed in the real world. The second approach is a macro ("top-down") model that consists of coupled economic- and technological-system models. Although more stylistic in its representation of endogenous technological change, the macro model can be applied on a worldwide scale and can generate long-term scenarios that are critical for policy analysis. Both the micro- and macro models generate radical departures from currently dominant technological systems ("surprises"), including long-term scenarios with low carbon and sulfur emissions. Our focus is modeling, but for policy, the work underscores the need for huge investments before environmentally superior technologies can compete in the market.

Notes: Abstract A total of 176 countries have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, thereby agreeing to limit emissions of greenhouse gases that threaten to interfere with the Earth's climate. While compliance procedures are being developed, the best indicators of implementation of the Convention are the emissions inventories of greenhouse gases that member countries must submit to the Convention as part of their national communications. We review some of the first emissions inventories from non-Annex I (developing) countries. We focus on land-use change and forestry because these activities are responsible for the major emissions of carbon in many non-Annex I parties, and because they are the only activities with the potential to remove carbon from the atmosphere and sequester it on land. The review shows first, that some developing countries have already begun to reduce emissions and second, that there are significant discrepancies between the data used in the emissions inventories and the data available in international surveys. Conceptual uncertainties also exist, such as distinguishing anthropogenic from nonanthropogenic sinks of carbon, and these will require political rather than scientific resolution. We discuss several options for counting terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon in light of the Kyoto Protocol.

Notes: Abstract Although global warming is generally linked to increasing levels of carbon dioxide, there are many other gases produced from industrial, agricultural, and energy-generating sources that can also cause the Earth's temperature to rise. Individually these gases are not likely to make a significant contribution, but, taken together, it is believed that they can rival the effects of carbon dioxide. This paper reviews the current trends of the most abundant or the most effective of these non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Methane, nitrous oxide, and the major chlorofluorocarbons (F-11 and F-12) have been the most notable greenhouse gases other than CO2. Although these gases will continue to play a role in global warming, new compounds are likely to become increasingly important. These include the fluorocarbon replacement compounds in the hydrofluorocarbon and the hydrochlorofluorocarbon groups and gases that are nearly inert in the atmosphere, persisting for thousands of years, such as the perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride.

Notes: Abstract The US-Mexico border region illustrates the challenges of binational environmental management in the context of a harsh physical environment, rapid growth, and economic integration. Transboundary and shared resources and conflicts include limited surface water supplies, depletion of groundwater, air and water pollution, hazardous waste, and conservation of important natural ecosystems. Public policy responses to environmental problems on the border include binational institutions such as the IBWC, BECC and CEC, the latter two established in response to environmental concerns about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Environmental social movements and nongovernmental organizations have also become important agents in the region. These new institutions and social movements are especially interesting on the Mexican side of the border where political and economic conditions have often limited environmental enforcement and conservation, and where recent policy changes also include changes in land and water law, political democratization, and government decentralization.

Notes: Abstract The commercial status of the principal solar electric technologies-photovoltaic and solar thermal-is reviewed. Current and near-term market niches are identified, and projected longer-term markets are explored along with the key strategies for achieving them, including technological breakthroughs, manufacturing developments, economies of scale and mass production, and market creation. Market barriers and public policy impacts on commercialization are discussed.

Notes: Abstract The problem of security of huge stocks of weapons-usable highly enriched uranium and plutonium in Russia against theft or diversion remains a serious nonproliferation concern. During the Cold War, the security of Soviet nuclear materials was based on centralization and discipline, protection by the military, and intrusive political oversight of the people. The recent fundamental societal changes have rendered these arrangements inadequate, and the security of nuclear materials has decreased. Safeguarding nuclear materials in Russia is particularly difficult because of their very large inventories and the size and complexity of the nation's nuclear infrastructure. Russia needs a reliable and more objective technology-based system of nuclear safeguards designed to control nuclear materials. The Russian government and the international community are working towards this goal.

Notes: Ruth Patrick's scientific career has been devoted to the study of freshwater organisms in water. It started with studies of diatoms. She found one could interpret the condition of water by studying diatoms. This study of the ecology of diatoms expanded into ecological studies of communities of organisms that live in streams. By shifts in the structure of communities she was able to show the effects of various types of pollution on the aquatic ecosystem. This was the first time an organized team of biologists had been used to study the effects of pollution in streams. Through this research she showed that freshwater ecosystems were characterized by large numbers of species with very different environmental requirements operating in each stage of nutrient and energy transfer in the food web. These species belonged to many different phylogenetic groups. This redundancy gives stability to the system.

Notes: Abstract The energy problems of the developing world are both serious and widespread. Lack of access to sufficient and sustainable supplies of energy affects as much as 90% of the population of many developing countries. Some 2 billion people are without electricity; a similar number remain dependent on fuels such as animal dung, crop residues, wood, and charcoal to cook their daily meals. Without efficient, clean energy, people are undermined in their efforts to engage effectively in productive activities or to improve their quality of life. Developing countries are facing two crucial-and related-problems in the energy sector. The first is the widespread inefficient production and use of traditional energy sources, such as fuelwood and agricultural residues, which pose economic, environmental, and health threats. The second is the highly uneven distribution and use of modern energy sources, such as electricity, petroleum products, and liquefied or compressed natural gas, which pose important issues of economics, equity, and quality of life. To address these problems, this paper evaluates some successful programs and recommends that governments support market-oriented approaches that make the energy market equally accessible and attractive to local investors, communities, and consumers. Such approaches ideally improve access to energy for rural and poor people by revising energy pricing and by making the first costs of the transition to modern and more sustainable uses of energy more affordable.

Notes: Abstract Ethanol is a high performance fuel in internal combustion engines. It is a liquid, which is advantageous in terms of storage, delivery, and infrastructural compatability. Ethanol burns relatively cleanly, especially as the amount of gasoline with which it is blended decreases. Evaporative and toxicity-weighted air toxics emissions are consistently lower for ethanol than for gasoline. It is likely that vehicles can be configured so that exhaust emissions of priority pollutants are very low for ethanol-burning engines, although the same can probably be said for most other fuels under consideration. Recent work suggests that ethanol may be more compatible with fuel cell-powered vehicles than has generally been assumed. Research and development-driven advances have clear potential to lower the price of cellulosic ethanol to a level competitive with bulk fuels. Process areas with particular potential for large cost reductions include biological processing (with consolidated bioprocessing particularly notable in this context), pretreatment, and incorporation of an advanced power cycle for cogeneration of electricity from process residues. The cellulosic ethanol fuel cycle has a high thermodynamic efficiency (useful energy/high heating value = from 50% to over 65% on a first law basis, depending on the configuration), and a decidedly positive net energy balance (ratio of useful energy output to energy input). Cellulosic ethanol is one of the most promising technogical options available to reduce transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. It may well be possible to develop biomass-based energy on a very large scale in the United States with acceptable and in some cases positive environmental impacts. To do so will however require responsible management and increased understanding of relevant technological and natural systems. The potential biomass resource is large, but so is demand for transportation fuels as well as other uses. The following hypotheses are offered as tentative hypotheses pertaining to biomass supply and demand in the United States: There will probably not be enough suitable land available to meet transportation demand if total vehicle miles traveled increase relative to current levels, and vehicle efficiency and animal protein utilization are unchanged. There probably is enough suitable land to meet transportation demand, even given some increase in vehicle miles traveled, given large but probably possible increases in vehicle efficiency, or large but probably possible decreases in reliance on animal protein, or a combination of less aggressive changes in both of these factors. The policy debate concerning fuel ethanol has tended to ignore cellulosic ethanol. It is suggested that an appropriate policy objective is to foster a transition to cellulosic feedstocks at a pace such that opportunities for ethanol producers and the farmers that supply them are expanded rather than contracted.

Notes: The crude oil and natural gas markets have a long colorful history. To understand them, one needs some economic theory. The dominant view, of a fixed mineral stock, implies that a unit produced today means one less in the future. As mankind approaches the limit, it must exert ever more effort per unit recovered. This concept is false, whether stated as common sense or as elegant theory. Under competition, the price results from endless struggle between depletion and increasing knowledge. But sellers may try to control the market in order to offer less and charge more. The political results may feed back upon market behavior. These factors-depletion, knowledge, monopoly, and politics-must be analyzed separately before being put together to capture a slice of a changing history.

Notes: Abstract Projections of the effect of climate change on future water availability are examined by reviewing the formulations used to calculate moisture transport between the ground and the atmosphere. General circulation models and climate change impact models have substantially different formulations for evapotranspiration, so their projections of future water availability often disagree, even though they use the same temperature and precipitation forecasts. General circulation models forecast little change in tropical and subtropical water availability, while impact models show severe water and agricultural shortages. A comparison of observations and modeling techniques shows that the parameterizations in general circulation models likely lead to an underestimate of the impacts of global warming on soil moisture and vegetation. Such errors would crucially affect the temperature and precipitation forecasts used in impact models. Some impact model evaporation formulations are probably more appropriate than those in general circulation models, but important questions remain. More observations are needed, especially in the vicinity of forests, to determine appropriate parameterizations.

Notes: Abstract Anthropogenic greenhouse gases are expected to induce changes in global climate that can alter ecosystems in ways that, in turn, may further affect climate. Such climate-ecosystem interactions can generate either positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system, thereby either enhancing or diminishing the magnitude of global climate change. Important terrestrial feedback mechanisms include CO2 fertilization (negative feedbacks), carbon storage in vegetation and soils (positive and negative feedbacks), vegetation albedo (positive feedbacks), and peatland methane emissions (positive and negative feedbacks). While the processes involved are complex, not readily quantifiable, and demonstrate both positive and negative feedback potential, we conclude that the combined effect of the feedback mechanisms reviewed here will likely amplify climate change relative to current projections that have not yet adequately incorporated these mechanisms.

Notes: Abstract The US electric-utility industry is in the midst of major changes. These changes include deintegration of the industry and substantial increases in competition. A major consequence of these changes is the exposure of transition costs. These costs, which amount to $100-$200 billion nationwide, reflect the differences between regulated prices for electricity generation and the prices that might occur in fully competitive power markets. The large financial stakes, equivalent to nearly the total value of US electric-utility common stock, guarantee controversy. Debates occur over transition-cost amounts; analytical and market methods to estimate these costs; the assets and liabilities to include in such calculations; the assumptions used in developing these estimates; approaches that can be used to offset some of these costs; the allocation of the remaining costs among utility shareholders, different classes of retail customers, independent power producers and other wholesale suppliers, and taxpayers; and appropriate cost-recovery mechanisms.

Notes: Abstract Society uses metals derived from primary and secondary sources. Secondary sources include all metals that have entered the economy but no longer serve their initial purpose. The environmental benefits of increasing reliance on secondary metal production include conserving energy, landscapes, and natural resources, and reducing toxic and nontoxic waste streams. A variety of technologies are used to recover and process metals from waste streams and their use for metal production influences the amount of secondary metal that reenters the system. Environmental regulation also affects secondary metal production through laws that control emissions and govern the classification and treatment of metal-loaded wastes. Industry must develop better technology to isolate and recover maximum value from metals in waste streams, and governments must institute policies that remove barriers to their economically and environmentally sound recovery. Only through a concerted effort can society recover a maximum amount of metal from the industrial/social system to benefit the environment.

Notes: This review presents a personal view of the development of plant physiological ecology, the science of studying biological diversity, and the functioning of the Earth as a system. The need for interaction among these disciplines is becoming increasingly urgent as we are faced with the challenge of "managing" the Earth system that is increasingly impacted by the activities of humans.

Notes: Abstract The environment has emerged as an important determinant of the performance of the modern chemical industry. This paper reviews approaches for incorporating environmental issues into the design of new processes and manufacturing facilities. The organizational framework is the design process itself, which includes framing the problem and generating, analyzing, and evaluating alternatives. A historical perspective on the chemical process synthesis problem illustrates how both performance objectives and the context of the design have evolved to the point where environmental issues must be considered throughout the production chain. In particular, the review illustrates the need to view environmental issues as part of the design objectives rather than as constraints on operations. A concluding section identifies gaps in the literature and opportunities for additional research.

Notes: Abstract The worldwide future of nuclear energy is a highly disputed subject; one side is certain that nuclear energy will have to expand in the next century to meet energy demand, whereas the other side is equally certain that this energy form is too dangerous and uneconomical to be of longer-term use. By looking at the way such beliefs are formed, the history of nuclear power, and the energy scene in the next century, this paper tests both points of view and concludes that both are flawed, but there is a strong case for keeping the option for nuclear expansion open. Yet, there has to be doubt whether today's technology is adequate for such expansion. There are alternative technologies under development that may make nuclear power more acceptable; however, although there is the time to develop such new processes, the question has to be asked whether such work can be funded, unless public opposition to nuclear power can be reduced and international collaboration improved. The long-term future of nuclear power depends more on successful research and development than on achieving early orders for more nuclear plants.

Notes: Abstract Ethanol made from lignocellulosic biomass sources, such as agricultural and forestry residues and herbaceous and woody crops, provides unique environmental, economic, and strategic benefits. Through sustained research funding, primarily by the U.S. Department of Energy, the estimated cost of biomass ethanol production has dropped from ~$4.63/gallon in 1980 to ~$1.22/gallon today, and it is now potentially competitive for blending with gasoline. Advances in pretreatment by acid-catalyzed hemicellulose hydrolysis and enzymes for cellulose breakdown coupled with recent development of genetically engineered bacteria that ferment all five sugars in biomass to ethanol at high yields have been the key to reducing costs. However, through continued advances in accessing the cellulose and hemicellulose fractions, the cost of biomass ethanol can be reduced to the point at which it is competitive as a pure fuel without subsidies. A major challenge to realizing the great benefits of biomass ethanol remains to substantially reduce the risk of commercializing first-of-a-kind technology, and greater emphasis on developing a fundamental understanding of the technology for biomass conversion to ethanol would reduce application costs and accelerate commercialization. Teaming of experts to cooperatively research key processing steps would be a particularly powerful and effective approach to meeting these needs.

Notes: Abstract This chapter on fuel cells covers the following topics: (a) fundamental electrochemical aspects and performance analysis; (b) technology research and development and demonstrations of fuel cell power sources for power generation, transportation, portable power, and space applications; (c) the role of fuel cells vs competing technologies, and (d) prospects for the applications and commercialization of fuel cell technologies in the twenty-first century. Although the fuel cell was invented in the nineteenth century, the twentieth century has been the period for technology development rather than widespread use. The fuel cell faces a great deal of competition in the proposed applications of power generation, transportation, and portable power. Significant work is still necessary, but intensified research and development activities could lead to the dawn of fuel cell commercialization and widespread use in the early part of the twenty-first century.

Notes: Abstract About two-thirds of primary energy today is used directly as transportation and heating fuels. Any discussion of energy-related issues, such as air pollution, global climate change, and energy supply security, raises the issue of future use of alternative fuels. Hydrogen offers large potential benefits in terms of reduced emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases and diversified primary energy supply. Like electricity, hydrogen is a premium-quality energy carrier, which can be used with high efficiency and zero emissions. Hydrogen can be made from a variety of feedstocks, including natural gas, coal, biomass, wastes, solar sources, wind, or nuclear sources. Hydrogen vehicles, heating, and power systems have been technically demonstrated. Key hydrogen end-use technologies such as fuel cells are making rapid progress toward commercialization. If hydrogen were made from renewable or decarbonized fossil sources, it would be possible to have a large-scale energy system with essentially no emissions of pollutants or greenhouse gases. Despite these potential benefits, the development of a large-scale hydrogen energy infrastructure is often seen as an insurmountable technical and economic barrier. Here we review the current status of technologies for hydrogen production, storage, transmission, and distribution; describe likely areas for technological progress; and discuss the implications for developing hydrogen as an energy carrier.

Notes: Abstract This paper reviews the empirical evidence for the following five hypotheses from the economic growth-liberalization-pollution debate: (a) economic growth will lead to a worsening pollution problem; (b) tighter environmental regulation will reduce economic growth; (c) trade liberalization will exacerbate environmental degradation, especially in developing countries with weak environmental protection; (d) tighter environmental protection in the developed countries will lead to a loss of competitiveness compared with that of countries with lower standards, especially in polluting industries; and (e) tighter environmental protection in the developed countries will lead to relocation of investment to developing countries with lax regulation, especially in polluting industries (the pollution haven hypothesis). Overall, the evidence for these hypotheses is found to be ambiguous and weak. It is further suggested that the growth-liberalization-environment empirical literature has neglected three important elements: (a) environmental innovation, (b) the international diffusion of environmental technologies, and (c) the economic benefits of a cleaner environment. Future research should integrate these elements into the debate. Analyses of endogenous environmental innovation in response to environmental policy, the tradable nature of environmental technologies, the role of trade and foreign direct investment as channels of environmental-technology transfer to developing countries, the effects of local environmental policies in encouraging the adoption of such technologies in developing countries, and the economic benefits of a cleaner environment would contribute to the development of sound, well-coordinated economic and environmental policies.

Notes: Abstract Of the thousands of species of microalgae that form the base of the marine food chain, only a small number are toxic or harmful. However, when these toxic species proliferate, they can cause massive kills of fish and shellfish, mortality among marine mammals and seabirds, substantive alterations of marine habitats, and human illness and death. Currently, six distinct human clinical syndromes associated with harmful algal blooms are recognized: ciguatera fish poisoning, paralytic shellfish poisoning, neurotoxic shellfish poisoning, diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, amnesic shellfish poisoning, and Pfiesteria-associated syndrome. Human illnesses are caused by toxins produced by these microorganisms, acquired either by passage through the food chain or direct skin or respiratory contact. Syndromes frequently include debilitating neurologic manifestations and, in some instances, may progress to death. There is a perception among investigators that the number of harmful algal blooms is increasing, as is the range of toxic species. It has been postulated that this increase is caused by human-related phenomena such as disruption of ecosystems, nutrient enrichment of waterways, and climatic change. In environmental studies, attention has traditionally focused on direct human health effects of pollutants. Harmful algal blooms are an example of an alternative paradigm, in which human-induced stress on complex ecologic systems leads to the emergence of new, potentially harmful microorganisms (or the reemergence of "old" pathogens from previously restricted environmental niches), which, in turn, cause human disease. Although data are lacking to fully substantiate this latter model, it provides a useful conceptual framework to assess data needs and consider public health interventions.

Notes: Abstract Six methods for attributing ambient pollutants to emission sources are reviewed: emissions analysis, trend analysis, tracer studies, trajectory analysis, receptor modeling, and dispersion modeling. The ranges of applicability, types of information provided, limitations, performance capabilities, and areas of active research of the different methods are compared. For primary, nonreactive pollutants whose effects of concern occur on a global scale, an accounting of emissions rates by source type and location largely characterizes source contributions. For other pollutants or smaller spatial scales, accurate estimates of emissions are needed for identifying the emissions reduction potentials of possible control measures and as inputs to dispersion models. Emission levels are frequently known with factor-of-two accuracy or worse, and improved estimates are needed for dispersion modeling. The analysis of regional or urban-scale trends in emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations can provide qualitative information on source contributions, but quantitative results are limited by the confounding influence of variations in meteorology and uncertainties in the areas over which emissions affect concentrations. Tracer studies are useful for quantifying dispersion characteristics of plumes, qualitatively characterizing transport directions, and providing empirical data for evaluating trajectory and dispersion models. Data are usually temporally limited to a short study period, typically do not provide information on vertical pollutant distributions, and are most applicable to the transport of primary, nonreactive pollutants. Trajectory analyses are routinely used to estimate atmospheric transport directions. Trajectory errors of about 20% of travel distance are considered typical of the better models and data sets. Receptor models use measurements of ambient pollutant concentrations to quantify the contributions of different source types to primary particulate matter or volatile organic compounds, or to characterize source-region contributions to a single pollutant. Accuracy rates of ~30% are often achieved when quantifying the contributions from different types of emission sources. Dispersion models are well-suited for estimating quantitative source-receptor relationships, as the effects of individual emission sources or source regions can be studied. Lagrangian and Gaussian dispersion models are computationally efficient and can simulate the transport of nonreactive primary or linear secondary species. Eulerian models are computationally intensive but lend themselves to the simulation of nonlinear chemistry. Careful evaluation of modeling accuracy is needed for a model application to fulfill its potential for source attribution. Accuracy can be evaluated through a combination of performance evaluation, sensitivity analysis, diagnostic evaluation, and corroborating analyses.

Notes: Abstract This paper focuses on the desirability, from an economic perspective, of setting fixed and relatively short-term targets and timetables, such as those contained in the Kyoto Protocol, as a means of achieving longer-term climate change mitigation goals. The paper argues that whatever long-term policy goals are adopted, greater flexibility lowers implementation costs. Lower implementation costs, in turn, increases the likelihood that the policies will actually be followed and the goals achieved. Importantly, the Kyoto Protocol incorporates key elements of both "what" and "where" flexibility. That is, the "Kyoto basket" includes all six of the major greenhouse gases plus sinks, and the Protocol incorporates several mechanisms that allow emission reductions to take place at the least-cost geographic location, regardless of nation-state boundaries. The Protocol also provides substantial "how" flexibility in the sense that countries can use a variety of means to achieve domestic policy goals. However, the Protocol does not allow emission reductions to take place at a point in time when they can be achieved at lowest cost as long as they are consistent with the long-term environmental goals ("when" flexibility). Additionally, it does not allow the use of efficient price-based policy instruments to define targets and, thereby, balance environmental goals and compliance costs (which could be thought of as a broader version of "when" flexibility). Instead, the Protocol relies exclusively on strict, short term quantity targets. The relative inflexibility of the Protocol with respect to the timing of reductions and definitions of the targets may derive, in part, from a misplaced analogy between the global warming issue and the highly successful effort to phase out CFCs under the Montreal Protocol. The lack of when flexibility may be a key barrier to achieving the broader goals of the Kyoto Protocol, particularly if where flexibility is constrained in the implementation process.