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  • Articles  (715)
  • Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)  (715)
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  • Economics  (715)
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Forum for health economics & policy 3 (2000), S. 3 
    ISSN: 1558-9544
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Medicine , Economics
    Notes: We evaluate the costs and benefits of increased medical spending for low-birthweight infants. Lifetime spending on low-birthweight babies increased by roughly $40,000 per birth between 1950 and 1990. The health improvements resulting from this have been substantial. Infant mortality rates fell by 72 percent over this time period, largely due to improved care for premature births. Considering both length and quality of life, we estimate the rate of return for care of low-birthweight infants at over 500 percent. Although prenatal care and influenza shots are more cost-effective than neonatal care, it is significantly more cost-effective than other recent innovations, such as coronary artery bypass surgery, treatment of severe hypertension, or routine Pap smears for women aged 20 to 74. We conclude that the answer to the question posed in this paper is a resounding yes.
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Forum for health economics & policy 3 (2000), S. 6 
    ISSN: 1558-9544
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Medicine , Economics
    Notes: This article introduces a new approach for evaluating the quality of healthcare providers, including an integrated solution to several problems that limit the usefulness of available methods. Our approach combines information from all the quality indicators available for a provider (e.g., from other years, other patients, or other indicators for the same patients) to estimate more accurately the provider's previous or expected quality. The approach also provides an empirical basis for comparing and combining alternative quality indicators, thereby enabling policy makers to choose among potential indicators, explore the potential bias in alternative measures, and increase the value of quality measures for assessing and improving care. Using hospital care for elderly heart attack patients as an example, we demonstrate that these methods can be used to create reliable, precise predictions about provider quality. Comparing quality of care across providers may be far more feasible than many now believe.
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  • 3
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    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Forum for health economics & policy 4 (2001), S. 5 
    ISSN: 1558-9544
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Medicine , Economics
    Notes: Despite widely publicized changes in attitudes toward the care of the dying and rapid growth in hospice care and other services targeted toward the dying, a remarkably stable 30 percent of total Medicare expenditures is spent on the 5 percent of Medicare bene
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  • 4
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    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Forum for health economics & policy 3 (2000), S. 4 
    ISSN: 1558-9544
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Medicine , Economics
    Notes: Medicare expenditures per capita vary widely across different parts of the country. Average fee-for-service per capita expenditures in 1995/96 were $3,420 in Eugene, Oregon, $3,663 in Minneapolis, $7,847 in Miami, and $8,861 in McAllen, Texas. These measures are adjusted for differences across regions in the age, sex, and racial composition of the population, as well as differences in the underlying cost of healthcare. In this paper, we focus on these geographical variations in the Medicare program and argue that they are central to any proposed reform of the Medicare system. The first question that must be addressed is, are these expenditures higher in high-cost areas because the elderly population there is sicker? The answer is, largely no. Many of the areas with the highest levels of spending have similar underlying disease burdens to regions with low levels of spending. Nor does quality of care or patient satisfaction appear to be better in the high-expenditure areas. These disparities bring up a number of issues related to equity across regions, efficiency of Medicare spending, and the potential for funding Medicare reform. Reducing the intensity of care in high-expenditure regions can fund prescription drug benefits for the entire Medicare population, or extend the solvency of the Medicare trust funds by ten years, without obvious adverse implications for the health or satisfaction of the elderly population.
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  • 5
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Forum for health economics & policy 4 (2001), S. 1 
    ISSN: 1558-9544
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Medicine , Economics
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  • 6
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 2.2000, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 7
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 4.2002, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The most intractable and protracted transatlantic trade conflict of the last decade was over bananas, which grow neither on the European nor on the North American continent. Our explanation of the conflict emphasizes the determining role of the domestic politics of the EU and the United States. It was driven not only by the extreme divergence of preferences of Brussels' and Washington's domestic constituencies, rooted in the competitive position of competing banana industries, but also, and critically, by the institutional configuration of (agricultural) trade policymaking on either side of the Atlantic. The EU agricultural trade policy process is characterized by a division of labor that favors agricultural over wider trading interests, sectoral segmentation, and sector-specific issue-linkage. The U.S. trade policy process is characterized by the Congress's growing reassertion of its trade policy prerogatives, the growing institutionalization of firms' access to the trade policy bureaucracy, and the growing volume and role of corporate campaign donations. The combined effect of these different policy process traits has been to facilitate the capture of banana trade policy by highly organized, particularistic, and predominantly trading interests. Although neither the WTO nor the transatlantic trading relationship ultimately "slipped" over bananas, the conflict provides scant reason for optimism concerning the future of this relationship or indeed of the multilateral international trading system, at least in as far as the latter depends on good EU-U.S. relations.
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  • 8
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 4.2002, 1, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Administrative agencies in the United States have developed highly formalized and complex processes for public participation in rulemaking, especially in areas of social regulation such as the environment and workplace safety and health. This case study considers the significance of participation in formal rulemaking processes by connecting the quality of participation to the strategic possibilities in litigation between private interests and regulatory agencies. Specifically, the strategic possibilities of the leading interest groups engaged in the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's major "Lockout/Tagout" rulemaking illustrate how legal resources are created through the development of evidence and claims in hearings. Written and oral presentations, apparently aimed directly at persuading the agency, indirectly affect agency deliberations by increasing the possibility that courts will constrain agency decisionmaking, thus creating opportunities for negotiated alternatives. The case ultimately serves as a paradigmatic example of how bargaining arises at the micro level of policy systems that are infused with broader legal structures.
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  • 9
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 4.2002, 3, art4 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 10
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 4.2002, 3, art1 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: eBay provides an online auction venue for remote and anonymous members of its online community to realize gains from trade. As a venue it never sees the items sold, verifies the item listings, handles settlements, or represents the buyer or seller. Despite the associated market imperfections and incentive problems, over five million auctions are active on an average day. Trading is based on trust among members of the eBay community, and trust is supported by a multilateral reputation mechanism based on member feedback. eBay supplements the reputation mechanism with rules and policies that mitigate incentive problems, reduce transactions costs, and support trust among members and between members and the company. Reputations and the rules and policies provide a private ordering of eBay's community. This paper examines this private ordering in the context of the company's strategy and in the shadow of the public order.
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  • 11
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 4.2002, 3, art5 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 12
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 5.2003, 1, art5 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper discusses the problems in the effective implementation of tort reform policy, focusing on several different areas that seek to review both the fundamental problems associated with punitive damages as well as the legal arguments in favor of tort reform. The limitations against the creation of a truly efficient system lie in the fact that strategic actors have the ability to anticipate the effects of reforms, and act to create feedback loops that diffuse the impact of the reform attempt. To implement effective tort reform policy one must understand how these strategic actors behave within the civil justice system, as well as how feedback loops limit the overall effectiveness of the tort reform policy. The findings suggest that the system of "decoupling" liability is the most efficient of all the current reform attempts or proposals, while the system can also be improved by adopting policies that isolate the incentive structures of plaintiff's attorneys.
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  • 13
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 5.2003, 2, art1 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper outlines an approach for understanding the role of multinational corporations (MNCs) in global governance. We develop a typology of regime types with two dimensions, the goal of the regime, which can be market enabling or regulatory, and the location of authority, which can be national, regional, or international, with public and private elements. MNCs tend to support the creation of market enabling regimes at the international level, and prefer to keep social or environmental regulation under national or private authority. However, these are only generalizations and MNCs develop preferences based on their relative influence in various arenas, the costs of political participation, and competitive considerations. We argue that institutions of global governance represent the outcome of a series of negotiations among corporations, states, and non-state actors. The preferences and power of MNCs vary across issues and sectors, and from one negotiating forum to another, accounting for the uneven and fragmented nature of the resulting system. Our approach differs from the traditional FDI bargaining framework in that it recognizes the multi-party nature of negotiations and multiple sources of power. Moreover, the complexity and dynamic nature of the process results in a somewhat indeterminate process.
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  • 14
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 5.2003, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
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  • 15
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    Business and politics 6.2004, 1, art6 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Over the past decade, multinationals (MNCs) have followed three main objectives while entering Latin America: efficiency seeking, growth seeking, and resource seeking. Efficiency seeking MNCs aim to reduce costs in their global production process through access to cheaper labor, and proximity to destination markets such as the United States. Growth seeking firms enter Latin American markets to grow and/or acquire new markets. They are by nature more dependent on the macroeconomic conditions in local markets for their success. Resource seeking firms enter Latin America in the search of minerals, metals, and hydrocarbons. This paper introduces the concept of "natural markets" to explain the relative successes of MNCs from different regions - Europe (mainly Iberian), USA, and Asia. 'Natural markets' for a MNC are defined as those markets sharing a common history or language or having a high level of physical proximity with the country of origin of the MNC. This paper proposes that a firm focusing on natural markets has a comparative advantage, and thus increases the probability of its success. The paper also draws upon the experiences of successful MNCs in Latin America to infer some lessons for East Asian MNCs wishing to operate in the region.
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  • 16
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 6.2004, 3, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper compares the economic efficiency of firm-agency governance structures for pollution reduction using transaction costs economics. Two governance structures are analyzed with the transaction costs approach: command and control regulation (CCR) and negotiated agreements (NAs). We propose that the choice of governance structure depends on the strategies firms pursue given the attributes of their transactions and their market opportunities. The application of transaction cost economics analysis leads to different choices of regulatory instruments. Firms in more mature, stable industries are likely to choose command and control, while firms in new, dynamic sectors are more likely to opt for negotiated agreements. Frequency of transactions is a key factor in firm choice.
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  • 17
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    Business and politics 5.2004, 3, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The increasing trend towards the internationalization of the world economy coupled with the liberalizing agenda of international institutions and Western governments has profound implications for the delivery of health and other welfare services. As governments pursue policies which extend the scope for the involvement of private companies in the delivery of welfare services, processes of internationalization are likely to become increasingly important to such services as multinational providers emerge. This article begins the process of developing a systematic understanding of the relationships between the structure of welfare states, the social and economic policies of governments and international institutions, and the strategies and interests of private companies. It is argued that it is the particular mix of direct state provision, tax/subsidy, and regulation in the welfare state formation that provides the opportunities for, or barriers to, the expansion of internationalizing private providers of healthcare. This argument is illustrated through a case study of the current process of reform in the British healthcare system, where a relative shift away from direct state provision towards subsidizing and regulating private providers is facilitating a process of internationalization.
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  • 18
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    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Business and politics 6.2004, 2, art2 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Restrictive policies aimed at reducing the likelihood of bank failure during recessions tend to increase the probability of a credit crunch. In this paper we infer governments' policy responses to this dilemma by studying the cyclical behavior of bank capital in 1369 banks from 28 OECD countries during the period 1992-98. We find significant differences across countries. In the US and Japan, bank capital is counter-cyclical, that is, the typical bank strengthens its capital base during periods of weak economic activity. In the other countries, there is no relationship between the level of macroeconomic activity and bank capital. From these findings we infer that severe banking crises in the US and Japan may have made policymakers there more vigilant towards "unhealthy" banks, even when this implies an increase in the risk of a credit crunch. In countries without such crisis experience, policymakers seem to be less concerned about future banking crises. Our results suggest that the strong push by the US for the 1988 Basle Accord may have been a reflection of this increased sensitivity. They also suggest that, to the extent business cycles do not develop in synchronicity across countries and policymakers respond differently to the banking crisis-credit crunch dilemma, current reforms of the Basle Accord, which are designed to tighten regulatory requirements, may encounter difficulties.
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  • 19
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    Business and politics 2.2000, 1, art2 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines several hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the existence and growth of legislators' campaign "warchests". We examine the sources and political consequences of warchests in US House elections over the period of 1978-1998. Briefly, our findings are as follows. First, we find little evidence in support of the deterrence hypotheses. Second, short-term electoral forces-scandals, partisan tides, challenger quality-accounts for a large fraction of the explained variation in savings. Third, incumbents act as if they have finite, "target" levels of total savings. Fourth, some of the accumulated savings before 1992 appear to be for retirement. Finally, we find considerable evidence that many of the largest warchests are accumulated to help members run for higher office.
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    Business and politics 2.2000, 1, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Interest groups cannot enforce contracts with legislators to work in their favor since fee-for-service agreements would be considered bribery. When such contracts are not available, a system of specialized, standing committees can provide a second-best way to maximize contributions, since such a system facilitates repeated interactions and reputational development between PACs and members of the relevant committees. Using data on PAC contributions by competing financial services interests to members of the House Banking Committee, we find evidence consistent with key implications of our model of committees as reputational-development devises. We then interpret important episodes in the evolution and development of the committee system during the twentieth century from the perspective of our theory. We focus on the revolt against House Speaker Cannon, which resulted in the birth of the modern committee system, and the post-Watergate reforms. We also consider broader implications of this approach for analyzing term limits, corruption, and party strength. JEL classifications: D72, D78, G28.
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    Business and politics 2.2000, 1, art4 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the political activity of US defense contractors over the years 1980-1994. Using econometric techniques to account for both fixed-effects and selection, I examine the industry determinants and distribution patterns of political action committee (PAC) contributions to the US House of Representatives. The analysis finds that the size of the defense budget is a primary factor explaining political activity across the industry as well as within individual firms; firm size, dependency on defense, and defense contract awards explain much less. I also find that firms appeared to change their political strategies in the face of large exogenous shifts in the US defense budget. While defense expenditures were on the rise, defense firms spread their contributions relatively broadly over the defense committee system; when the budget fell, however, the firms switched strategies and targeted committee leaders. An incidental contribution of the paper is an empirical application of the trimmed least absolute deviations estimator for fixed-effects models with selection.
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  • 22
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    Business and politics 2.2000, 1, art5 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: There is a vast empirical literature on the allocation of corporate PAC contributions in Congressional elections and the influence that these contributions have on the policy-making process. The attention given to PAC contributions is far in excess of their actual importance. Corporate PAC contributions account for about 10% of Congressional campaign spending and major corporations allocate far more money to lobbying or philanthropy than their affiliated PACs make in contributions.
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    Business and politics 2.2000, 2, art1 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Since the late 1980s, the Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) has been a prominent vehicle used to support collaboration between US federal laboratories and private firms. This paper examines the structure and goals of one of the most ambitious CRADAs conducted to date, the EUV CRADA, which involves three Department of Energy laboratories and leading US firms in the semiconductor industry and is aimed at the development of next-generation lithographic technologies. This large project is an important case study in 'post-Cold-War' technology policy and government-industry collaboration. Although the EUV project represents significant improvements in the design and management of CRADAs, it also illustrates the inherent difficulties of balancing political and economic goals in complex technology development programs.
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    Business and politics 2.2000, 2, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: Business plays a critical yet poorly understood role in trade policymaking. This paper develops an analytical framework that focuses on the distribution of business trade preferences, the forces that cause those preferences to change, and the ability of different groups to exert political influence over policy. It then applies this framework to Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s. Large, exporting firms increased their weight due to shifts in the international context, the condition of the domestic economy, and previous government policies. Policymakers granted political access to actors whose economic and political leverage had risen, typically those who controlled numerous investment resources and sought out a direct role in policymaking. Many of these actors also favored free trade. Business participation in trade policy reflects these patterns. Large, outward-oriented firms played an increasingly important role in Mexico's adoption of free trade policies over the 1980s and early 1990s.
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    Business and politics 3.2001, 3, art2 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: In 1996, the Finnish government initiated an Action Plan aimed at the more effective control of economic crime and the grey economy, involving wide-scale reform in legislation, regulatory agencies, enforcement practice, and research activities. The emergence of this Action Plan forms the empirical focus of this article, which addresses two specific research questions. First, what were the economic, social and political factors that produced this Action Plan? Second, how can this initiative contribute to a critical assessment of the claims of "globalization discourses," which seem to render such an idiosyncratic nation-state development as unlikely? The article critically examines some of the elements of globalization discourses with particular respect to the implications for the nature of contemporary states and the possibilities for the more effective regulation of corporate activity. It then outlines the processes and events that allowed the Finnish Action Plan to emerge. Finally, it asks what lessons are to be learnt from the Finnish case, before identifying some further lines of enquiry to be pursued. This Finnish initiative seems to represent one important instance of the extent to which states can develop relatively autonomous economic and social policy, even where this appears to be detrimental to the interests of "capital."
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 2, art2 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper uses newly available data from the 1995 Lobby Disclosure Act to assess the argument that PAC contributions are used to gain access to legislators. First, we find a much stronger connection between lobbying and campaign contributions than previous statistical research has revealed--groups that have both a lobbyist and a PAC account for 70 percent of all interest group expenditures and 86 percent of all PAC contributions. Second, we find that groups that engage in relatively large amounts of lobbying--and therefore presumably have a high demand for access--allocate their campaign contributions differently than groups that do not. Groups that emphasize lobbying pay more attention to members' positions of power inside Congress, and less attention to members' electoral circumstances, than other groups. Groups that emphasize lobbying also appear to be more bipartisan and less ideological than other groups, giving more equally to both parties and more broadly across the ideological spectrum.
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 2, art7 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 2, art6 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper analyzes how the structure of the legislature affects interest groups' incentives to lobby. Lobbying is modelled as the strategic provision of information by an interest group to a multi-member legislature, and the effectiveness of lobbying lies in the ability of information to change the winning policy coalitions. We show that with a long enough time horizon for policymakers, the distinguishing feature between the U.S. Congress and European parliamentary systems--the vote of confidence procedure--reduces an agenda setter's willingness to change policy coalitions, and thus significantly lowers the incentives for interest group lobbying.
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 2, art8 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the relationship between interest group membership, source of authorization, and meeting closure in federal advisory committees. Using observed correlations, it seeks to identify the ultimate source of "inappropriate influence" wielded in advisory committees. The worst offenders in recent years are those committees created jointly by Congress and agencies, and especially certain committees in USDA and DOC. However, these findings may be unique to the last six years, during which the number of closed meetings has tripled.
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 2, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 3, art2 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: MNCs are increasingly facing global environmental issues demanding coordinated market and non-market strategic responses. The home country institutional context and individual company histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNCs based in different countries; however, the location of MNCs in global industries and their participation in 'global issues arenas' create issue-level fields within which strategic convergence might also be expected. This paper analyzes the responses of oil MNCs to climate change and finds that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures.
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    Business and politics 4.2002, 3, art3 
    ISSN: 1369-5258
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This article tests two hypotheses about post-communist business associations. The first predicts weak business associations which are presented with insurmountable collective action problems by the flattened civil society inherited from totalitarianism. According to this hypothesis, no business associations are inherited from the previous regime, and associations are confronted with difficult-to-organize latent groups of large numbers of new small enterprises. The second hypothesis, as proposed by Mancur Olson, predicts strong business associations benefiting from the collective action advantages of the communist economic structure which was composed of small numbers of large enterprises. The hypotheses are tested with case studies of Poland's five most influential business associations. The conclusion is that the flattened civil society hypothesis is best borne out by the evidence. This suggests that, in other countries, political factors, rather than the standard communist economic structure, are more likely to explain the persistence of industrial super lobbies.
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    Business and politics 5.2003, 1, art3 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: This paper addresses the intersection of coalition formation, judicial strategies, and regulatory politics. Coalitions are a low-cost means for assembling minority interests into more powerful blocs. However, in most cases in regulatory politics, judicial strategies are high cost efforts. I argue that coalitions among interests form one basis for judicial participation, but that participation manifests in an array of coalition "microstructures." For any one event, the microstructure of the interest group coalition varies, but across events the coalitions take on general forms. The paper offers evidence for a variety of coalition microstructures in interest group participation as amici curiae ("friends of the court") in cases before the United States Supreme Court. The evidence is drawn from the case of the Group of Ten, a stable, long-term coalition of environmental interest groups that operated from 1981 to 1991.
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    Notes: Although the pluralist theory of politics predicts that the focus of organizational activity should shift to the judicial arena whenever the expectations of government as regulator and the demands of regulated interests fail to converge, there has been little systematic research focusing on the question of business litigation as a specific form of interest mobilization. This article develops an integrated organizational choice model of interest mobilization to explain corporate litigation against the United States government. I argue that a company's decision to proceed with litigation is predicated upon the company's (1) resource capacity, (2) constraints of the regulatory environment, and (3) perception of procedural unfairness of the government in the administrative process. The argument is tested with data from a survey of top U.S. business executives whose companies unsuccessfully petitioned the government for administered protection between 1990 and 1995. The argument receives strong empirical support, and suggests that U.S. corporations facing import competition consider litigation an important component of their overall political strategy for obtaining nonmarket benefits.
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    Business and politics 5.2003, 2, art2 
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    Topics: Political Science , Economics
    Notes: The key objective of this paper is to highlight the interconnectedness between China's political and economic system and its weak enforcement of accounting and auditing standards. The institutional analysis shows that the prevailing political and economic priorities constituting China's "socialist market economy" create a framework, that basically relies on state-led enforcement with weak supplementary private safeguard mechanisms. The resulting policy-mix is characterized by a mismatch of incentives and available devices to effectively enhance enforcement. While the state bureaucracy has little incentive to effectively fight financial misreporting because of both blurred policy-economy boundaries and the coexistence of multiple and even non-economic goals, shareholders and creditors do not have sufficient and effective private safeguard mechanisms at hand. Findings lead to the conclusion that China's recent harmonization move of accounting and auditing standards urgently needs to be backed up by stronger efforts to create effective enforcement mechanisms. Sound reforms would have to center on a rigorous upgrading and restructuring of the responsible bodies supervising auditing quality and financial disclosure. Parallel to these measures, the increasing integration into the global economy may provide incentives and competitive pressure to comply with globally accepted standards.
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    Notes: This paper examines the development of EU regulations in the car distribution sector. In the span of approximately fifteen years, the sector has shifted from being regarded by its critics as being one of the most protected havens of European industry to one faced with open competition. The paper claims that the inability of the car industry to resist liberalization in this sector is related to several factors. First, there was declining support from member states for their national producers, in part explained by global shifts in ownership and production which rendered concepts of "national producer" problematic. Second, technological changes combined with the impact of globalization on in the industry undermined the case for a link between sales and service of cars. Third, DG competition, led by Mario Monti, wished to push through the ability of consumers to make cross-border purchases of cars. Fourth, a more general logic embedded in the Single European Market programme (SEM) had led to several decisions to prosecute EU car producers for infringing SEM rules and thereby undermining the ability of EU member states to protect their "national producers." This has implications more broadly: will increasing globalization of industrial ownership further undermine the state-firm nexus in the EU, thus reducing the propensity of national industries to resist liberalization? In this context, will member states be prepared to give the EU Commission a freer hand in forcing through liberalization in the remaining sectors that remain problematic?
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    Notes: This paper considers whether highly concentrated industries are better represented in the political process, as Olson's Logic of Collective Action suggests, and, if they are, whether this is so for the reasons that the Logic claims. It begins with a review and critique of the quantitative literature that has largely tried and failed to substantiate Olson's view. The bulk of the paper consists of five longitudinal case studies of firms that dominate or have dominated industries: IBM, Intel, Microsoft, America Online, and Cisco. The cases suggest that there is merit to the Olsonian view, but that alone it does not constitute an adequate political theory of the concentrated industry or the dominant firm. Additional variables drawn from organizational and institutional theory need to be incorporated into such a theory, including variables that bear on the allocation of attention, threat perception, and information flow within dominant firms.
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    Business and politics 6.2004, 1, art3 
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    Notes: The paper focuses on how the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which will include both high-income developed and developing countries, will affect the options and investment strategies of multinational firms outside the region. Preliminary sections discuss the strategies open to both insider firms (headquartered with the Americas) and outsider firms, and the characteristics of technologies and countries that determine equilibrium location choices. Then I turn more explicitly to the question at hand, and suggest that a free-trade area of the Americas can be conceptually decomposed into (a) integration among the southern developing countries and (b) integration between the south and NAFTA. The first will give third-country multinationals horizontal investment opportunities to serve the effectively larger southern market with local production to serve the local southern market. The second gives third-country multinationals the opportunity to exploit low labor costs in the south to produce for export to North America (export-platform FDI). While this all sounds attractive for third-country firms, the theory emphasizes that the same advantages of integration are conferred upon U.S. and Canadian firms who have the additional advantage of supplying services and intermediate goods to southern affiliates at lower cost than the third country firms. This competitive effect from insider firms leads the theory to suggest weaker benefits to third-country firms than a simpler approach might predict.
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    Notes: The current level and future evolution of trans-Pacific business linkages are tightly linked to domestic politics in Latin American countries. Where the structure of a nation's political institutions offer credible checks and balances against discretionary policymaking, external linkages including those with Pacific partners are stronger. Future liberalization including the formation of an FTAA is more likely when new policymakers arrive in office or when existing policymakers feel strong internal or external pressure to shift the course of their trade policy. A given liberalization is more likely to be sustained when coupled with short-term observable improvement in social and economic indicators. Countries with political institutions that fail to limit policymakers' discretion are particularly sensitive to a failure to demonstrate clear and immediate results. An analysis of the potential of an FTAA to influence trans-Pacific business linkages based on these arguments suggests that adoption is far from certain and that northern and southern countries alike will have to design an agreement with particular attention to social and economic consequences in Latin American countries.
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    Notes: ASEAN countries perceive the possible formation of the FTAA as a potential threat on the grounds that it may divert export markets and foreign direct investment (FDI) capital to the FTAA region. This effect, together with the "China factor" and the hangover from the 1997 financial crisis, posts a concern to the ASEAN countries' economic growth. We show that, with Singapore as an exception, ASEAN countries are afflicted with state activism, poor property rights protection, and under-developed corporate governance. We argue that a poor institutional environment may exacerbate the effects of an external shock - such as that of FTAA - and thus we need to explicitly incorporate the role of institutional environments in our analysis. We further argue that while FDI flows to locations with market opportunities, a location's institutional environment affects the composition of FDI. Due to ASEAN countries' institutional weakness, its substantial inward FDI has mainly substituted, rather than complemented, local entrepreneurship. As FTAA may divert FDI flows into ASEAN countries, their appropriate response is to improve institutional quality so that the share of the more productive complementary FDI will increase in the total FDI inflows.
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    Notes: The conventional view of private campaign contributions is that they distort policy to the detriment of society. Formal models consistent with such views, however, are based on restrictive assumptions about the nature of campaigns, interest groups and policy dimensionality. This paper relaxes those assumptions and allows for informative campaigns, multiple interest groups and multiple issue dimensions. It uses analytical and computational methods to demonstrate that private campaign contributions from societally unrepresentative contributors can, under reasonable conditions, improve social welfare. Multidimensionality is important because politicians need to be responsive on salient issues to prevent opponents from raising money based on less salient issues and using the money to publicize positions on salient issues.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2002, 1, art1 
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    Notes: Let H be an infinite-dimensional real separable Hilbert space. Given an unknown mapping M:H (r)H that can only be observed with noise, we consider two modified Robbins-Monro procedures to estimate the zero point ?o ( H of M. These procedures work in appropriate finite dimensional sub-spaces of growing dimension. Almost-sure convergence, functional central limit theorem (hence asymptotic normality), law of iterated logarithm (hence almost-sure loglog rate of convergence), and mean rate of convergence are obtained for Hilbert space-valued mixingale, (-dependent error processes.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2002, 2, art2 
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    Notes: We propose information theoretic tests for serial independence and linearity in time series against nonlinear dependence on lagged variables, based on the conditional mutual information. The conditional mutual information, which is a general measure for dependence, is estimated using the correlation integral from chaos theory. The significance of the test statistics is determined by means of bootstrap methods. The size and power properties of the tests are examined by simulation and illustrated with applications to real US GNP data.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 4.2000, 2, art2 
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    Notes: Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common finding is that seasonality tends to differ across the business cycle stages of recessions and expansions. Since seasonal adjustment methods assume that the two sources of variation can somehow be separated, the present study examines the impact of seasonal adjustment on the analysis of cyclical patterns. Seasonally adjusted quarterly unemployment data for five G-7 countries are modeled by a Smooth Transition Autoregression (STAR), whereas the corresponding unadjusted data are modeled by a so-called Seasonal STAR (SEASTAR). A comparison of the implied estimated peaks and troughs shows that there is substantial agreement on the business cycle chronologies, albeit that for seasonally adjusted data, recessionary periods tend to last longer.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 4.2000, 2, art1 
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    Notes: We investigate business cycle dynamics for 26 countries, estimating a set of nonlinear models for real GDP where appropriate. We find a great deal of heterogeneity in the dynamics of real output growth across countries. At the same time, a common feature is the asymmetric response of real GDP to shocks and the tendency for negative real GDP shocks to be less persistent than positive real GDP shocks.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 4.2000, 3, art1 
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    Notes: When the hypothesis of linearity of a univariate time series model is tested using a battery of tests for neglected nonlinearity, the probability of one or more tests' leading to a false rejection increases with the number of tests being performed. This paper discusses how this undesirable effect of multiple testing may be controlled by means of some simple and easily implemented procedures. Monte Carlo experiments are used to demonstrate the finite-sample effectiveness of the various methods, and an analysis of the nonlinearity properties of GDP data from five OECD countries is presented as an illustration.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 4.2001, 4, art3 
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    Notes: The aim of this article is to show a simple way to construct asymptotic minimax lower bounds for risks based on different types of quadratic loss functions in semiparametric inference problems. For the sake of clarity, we consider the simple case of the state estimation of a dynamical system with small noise. The proofs are based on the van Trees inequality, namely, an integral-type Cram´er-Rao inequality.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 4.2001, 4, art2 
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    Notes: The present article offers a careful description of empirical identification of possible multiple changes in regime. We apply recently developed tools designed to select among regime-switching models among a broad class of linear and nonlinear regression models and provide a discussion of the impact on the formation of inflation expectations in the presence of multiple and recurrent changes in inflation regimes. Our empirical findings give a plausible explanation as to why the rational-expectations hypothesis based on direct measures of inflation expectations from survey series is typically rejected because of large systematic differences between actual and expected inflation rates. In particular, our results indicate that in the case of changing and not perfectly observed inflation regimes, inference about rationality and unbiasedness based on a comparison of ex ante forecasts from survey series and actual inflation rate based on ex post realizations will be ambiguous because of the presence of an ex post bias. The empirical findings are based on Danish inflation rates covering 1957-1998. We show that it is not possible to reject the hypothesis of multiple inflationary regimes and that the actual inflation rate can be represented by a two-state Markov regime-switching model. It turns out that the real-time forecasts produced from this model exhibit a large degree of similarity when compared to the direct measures of inflation expectations. The result illustrates the important impact of switching regimes on the formation of actual and expected inflation and hence of ex post bias as a main contributor to the difference between actual and expected inflation observed directly from survey series.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 4.2001, 4, art4 
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    Notes: This article reports a new seasonality in the volatility of Eurofutures contracts as a function of the time left before contract expiry. The fact that futures markets, unlike foreign exchange or equity markets, offer contracts that expire on specific dates, with typically one expiry per quarter for Eurofutures, leads to a new type of volatility seasonality as a function of the time left to expiry for the contract in question. The intraday volatility, averaged over the Eurofutures contracts we studied (Eurodollar, Euromark, and Short Sterling), decreases as a function of the time left to expiry. There is also an unexpected behavior consisting of oscillatory movements in volatility, with peaks every 60 business days, corresponding to rollover activities before each quarterly expiry.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 5.2001, 1, art3 
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    Notes: This article proves that periodic trajectories are generically impossible in a class of continuous-time growth models that allow a locally indeterminate steady state. Those models reducible to the two-dimensional Lotka-Volterra system of equations constitute the class considered here. Knowledge of the presence or absence of the limit cycles allows a global phase diagram of the system to be constructed. In particular, an explosive steady state implies that all perfect-foresight trajectories diverge to infinity and that the model cannot be used even locally.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 5.2001, 2, art1 
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    Notes: This paper presents the asymptotic and finite sample properties of the efficient method of moments and indirect inference, when applied to estimating stationary ARMA models. Issues such as identification, model selection, and testing are also discussed. The properties of these estimators are compared to those of maximum likelihood using Monte Carlo experiments for both invertible and noninvertible ARMA models.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 5.2001, 1, art7 
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    Notes: In this paper, it is shown how one can employ the wavelet analysis to reconstruct data based only on the subset of information that differentiates the two fundamentally related time series: spot and futures indices. Such an analysis allows researchers to focus on examining the relationship between the two price series. Furthermore, it also enables examination and comparison of reconstructed prices based on different levels of information detail. It is found that the lead-lag relationship described in the empirical literature still exists between the spot and the futures index prices. Such a relationship is more persistent when more detailed information is used for price reconstruction. This implies that, if market imperfection is to be blamed for the noncontemporaneous relationship between the spot and the futures indices, one should concentrate solely on those imperfections that are likely to occur within very short time horizons.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 5.2001, 3, art1 
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    Notes: We examine the behavior of the real exchange rates of nine transition economies during the 1990s. We propose an empirical model rationalized on the basis of standard economic models in the tradition of Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch and Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson, allowing explicitly for real interest rate differentials and (implicitly) for productivity differentials to have an impact on real exchange rate equilibrium and employing nonlinear modeling techniques that are consistent with recently developed economic theories and observed regularities. Using a nonlinear multivariate generalization of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition applied to our models, we also identify the permanent and temporary components of these real exchange rates implied by our estimates. The results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 5.2002, 4, art1 
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    Notes: We report evidence that the relation between the financial-sector share, private saving, and growth in the United States in 1948-96 is characterized by several regime shifts. The finding is based on vector autoregressions on quarterly data that allow for Markov switching regimes. The evidence may be interpreted as support for a hypothesis that the relation between financial development and growth evolves in a stepwise fashion. Theoretical models in which structural financial developments entail fixed costs imply such stepwise patterns. The estimated variable relations are roughly consistent with the patterns to be expected from such models, although our data do not admit definite conclusions. The timing of the shifts coincides with changes in regulation and in the financial-market structure.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 5.2002, 4, art4 
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    Notes: This paper investigates topologically semiconjugate dynamics as a macrorepresentation of microeconomic dynamics. The condition for its existence, its summarizing property, and its inferability property are discussed. As an example, we present a model of a temporary equilibrium price dynamic that has a topologically semiconjugate one-dimensional income dynamic, from which the nature of the original price dynamic will be inferred.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2002, 3, art1 
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    Notes: In this paper I review what insights we have gained about economic and financial relationships from the use of wavelets and speculate on what further insights we may gain in the future. Wavelets are treated as a 'lens' that enables the researcher to explore relationships that previously were unobservable.
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    Notes: This paper studies the dynamics of lending and deposit rates in two emerging markets in Latin America: Colombia and Mexico. The dynamics of lending (deposit) interest rates are driven by the exogenous interbank interest rate and deviations from the long-run lending-interbank (deposit-interbank) interest rate relationship. Allowing for different interest rate behavior during periods characterized by large and small values of the spread, the non-linear specification proves superior to the linear one.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 7.2003, 1, art3 
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    Notes: This paper makes two contributions to the literature on terrorism: 1) It presents a model that explains the cyclical characteristics of terrorist attacks, and 2) It improves on the existing theoretical cyclical models since it takes explicitly into account terrorists' motivations and decision-making. The model assumes that the government acts as leader and terrorists as followers. Terrorists maximize terrorist acts over time constrained by their budget constraint, which yields a time path for terrorist activities. Then the government maximizes national security by taking the time path of terrorist activities and investments in enforcement as constraints. The model shows that permanent cyclical paths for enforcement, terrorist activities, terrorist capital and national security may arise as an optimal solution.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2002, 3, art2 
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    Notes: This paper examines the relative performance of some popular nonlinearity tests when applied to time series generated by Markov switching autoregressive models. The nonlinearity tests considered include RESET-type tests, the Keenan test, the Tsay test, the McLeod--Li test, the BDS test, the White dynamic information matrix test, and the neural network test. Applications to economic time series are also considered.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2003, 4, art1 
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    Notes: Although there is a consensus about time variation in market betas, it is not clear how this variation should be captured. Several researchers continue to analyze different versions of the conditional CAPM. However, Ghysels (1998) shows that these conditional CAPM models fail to capture the dynamics of beta risk. In this study, we introduce a new model, threshold CAPM, which outperforms both the conditional and unconditional CAPMs by generating smaller pricing errors. We also show that the beta risk changes through time with the changes in the economic environment and the dynamics of time variation of beta differ across industries. These findings have important implications for asset allocation, portfolio selection, and hedging decisions.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 1, art5 
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    Notes: Farmer (1991) suggests that in a model in which there are multiple rational expectations (RE) equilibria agents may find it useful to coordinate their expectations in a unique RE equilibrium which is immune to the Lucas Critique. In this paper, we evaluate Lucas proof (LP) equilibrium performance in the context of the term structure of interest rates model by using post-war US data. Estimation results show that LP equilibrium exhibits some important features of the data that are not reproduced by the fundamental equilibrium. For instance, the short rate behaves as a random walk in a regime characterized by low conditional volatility, whereas the term spread Granger-causes changes in the short-rate in periods characterized by high conditional volatility.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 7.2003, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We study how entry and exit decisions of a monopolist are affected by business cycle conditions. We model the business cycle as a two-state Markov process, and assume that the demand curve faced by the monopolist evolves differently in the two states of the economy. We explore conditions under which the monopolist would enter or exit, either in a boom or a recession.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2003, 3, art5 
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    Notes: This note corrects some typographical errors in my earlier manuscript.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 2, art2 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper extends the forward search technique to the analysis of structural time series data. It provides a series of powerful new forward plots that use information from the whole sample to display the effect of each observation on a wide variety of aspects of the fitted model and shows how the forward search, free from masking and swamping problems, can detect the main underlying features of the series under study (masked multiple outliers, level shifts or transitory changes). The effectiveness of the suggested approach is shown through the analysis of real and simulated data.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 2, art7 
    ISSN: 1081-1826
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: GARCH-type models have been analyzed assuming various nongaussian distributions of errors. In general, the asymmetric generalized Student-t random variable seems to be the distribution which better captures the nonnormality features of financial data. However, a drawback of this distribution is represented by the technical dificulties due to the evaluation of moments, especially in the case of fractional degrees of freedom. In this paper we propose to model high frequency time series returns using GARCH-type models with a generalized secant hyperbolic (GSH) distribution. The main advantage of the GSH distribution over the Student-t distribution is that all the moments are finite for each value of the shape parameter. The distribution is symmetric with respect to the mean, but we show that it is still possible to obtain the density in a closed form introducing a skewness parameter according to the method proposed by Fernandez and Steel. We use a Monte Carlo experiment to validate this distribution in the context of GARCH models with maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Finally, we show an application to log returns of a stock index.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 2, art13 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We describe an algorithm for the construction of optimum experimental designs for the parameters in a regression model when the errors have a correlation structure. Our example is drawn from chemical kinetics, so that the model is nonlinear. Our algorithm has been implemented to be used when the model consists of a set of differential equations for which only numerical solutions ar available. However, the algorithm can also be used for standard regression models when the errors are correlated. The paper concludes with some discussion of outstanding issues in optimum design with correlated errors.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 2, art4 
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    Notes: Several methods have been proposed for identifying clusters of extreme values leading to estimators of the extremal index; the latter represents,in the limit, the mean-size of each cluster of thresholds exceedances. The detection of clusters of extremes is relevant for the class of processes commonly used in financial econometrics, such as GARCH processes. The paper illustrates a novel approach to the above identification that exploits additional knowledge of the trajectory of the process around extreme events, and compares it to traditional approaches, using simulation from a GARCH process. We assess the relative performance of estimators in terms of bias, mean square error and distributional properties.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 7.2003, 2, art1 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: The paper demonstrates global stability in a class of stochastic overlapping generations economies with increasing returns. These results are applied to the study of path dependent dynamics. In particular, for nonlinear stochastic models it is seen that persistence of the historical state and formal ergodicity may easily coincide. A new definition of path dependence is proposed that incorporates such dynamics.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 6.2003, 4, art2 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Using asymmetric nonlinear smooth-transition GARCH(M) models for the period of 1926:01 - 1997:12, this paper shows that monthly excess returns on value-weighted market indexes exhibit a strong asymmetric reverting pattern; a negative return reverts more quickly, with a greater reverting magnitude, to positive returns, than do positive returns revert to negative returns. This paper also reveals that the relationship between future volatility and its risk premium is surprisingly negative when a negative return shock has been realized. The observed asymmetry in return dynamics is directly associated with a reduction in risk premium following a negative return shock. The reduction in risk premium causes not only the current stock price to rise but also the realized negative return to revert faster.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 7.2003, 4, art5 
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    Notes: Linear Vector Autoregression (VAR) models provide a useful starting point for analysing multivariate relationships between economic variables. They are frequently used for empirical macroeconomic modelling, policy analysis and forecasting. However, linear VAR systems fail to capture non-linear dynamics such as regime switching and asymmetric responses to shocks, suggested by the recent theoretical developments in macroeconomic research. In addition, an increasing body of empirical evidence suggests that the linear conditional expectations implied by standard VAR models do not always accord with the observed facts. For example, a significant number of empirical studies document asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy on output growth. This paper employs a more general nonlinear VAR methodology to re-examine previous findings that credit market conditions contribute to economic fluctuations as a propagator of shocks. Unlike linear projections it allows for nonlinear dynamics and asymmetric effects of shocks. We estimate a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR), in which the system's dynamics change back and forth between credit constrained and unconstrained regimes. Using generalised impulse response functions (GIRF) generated from the estimated nonlinear model, we examine the real effects of monetary policy. We find evidence of asymmetry in the effects of monetary policy in the credit constrained and unconstrained regimes as well as different output effects of monetary contractions and expansions.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 7.2003, 4, art3 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: We develop a behavioral exchange rate model with chartists and fundamentalists to study cyclical behavior in foreign exchange markets. Within our model, the market impact of fundamentalists depends on the strength of their belief in fundamental analysis. Estimation of a STAR GARCH model shows that the more the exchange rate deviates from its fundamental value, the more fundamentalists leave the market. In contrast to previous findings, our paper indicates that due to the nonlinear presence of fundamentalists, market stability decreases with increasing misalignments. A stabilization policy such as central bank interventions may help to deflate bubbles.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 1, art2 
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    Notes: We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing, simple to implement and work well in practice.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 1, art3 
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    Notes: This paper considers the measurement of the equity risk premium in financial markets from a new perspective that picks up on a suggestion from Merton (1980) to use implied volatility of options on a market portfolio as a direct 'ex-ante' estimate for market variance, and hence the risk premium. Here the time variation of the unobserved risk premium is modelled by a system of stochastic differential equations connected by arbitrage arguments between the spot equity market, the index futures and options on index futures. We motivate and analyse a mean-reverting form for the dynamics of the risk premium. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, information about its time varying conditional distribution is extracted using an unobserved component state space formulation of the system and Kalman filtering methodology. In order to cater for the time variation of volatility we use the option implied volatility in the dynamic equations for the index and its derivatives. This quantity is in a sense treated as a signal that impounds the market's 'ex-ante', forward looking, view on the equity risk premium. The results using monthly U.S. market data over the period January 1995 to June 2003 are presented and the model fit is found to be statistically significant using a number of measures. Comparisons with ex-post returns indicate that such historical measures may be understating the market risk premium.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 3, art2 
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    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: This paper derives optimal monetary policy rules in setups where certainty equivalence does not hold because either central bank preferences are not quadratic, and/or the aggregate supply relation is nonlinear. Analytical results show that these features lead to sign and size asymmetries, and nonlinearities in the policy rule. Reduced-form estimates indicate that US monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule after 1983, but not before 1979. This finding is consistent with the view that the Fed's inflation preferences during the Volcker-Greenspan regime differ considerably from the ones during the Burns-Miller regime.
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    Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 8.2004, 1, art4 
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    Notes: Using a new methodology that allows nonlinearities, we find frequent support for external debt sustainability in a number of Latin American countries. Our findings reverse the results for several countries, obtained with traditional unit-root tests and present a richer framework for evaluating the external solvency of an economy. Our results also provide some justification for the assumption the international current accounts are based on.
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    Global economy journal 4 (2004), S. 5 
    ISSN: 1524-5861
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: New technologies integrated New Zealand into the international economy after the 1960s. State investment in air services, international telecommunications, and container shipping enhanced access to overseas markets. They prepared the nation for the shock of Britain's entry into the European Economic Community. Yet state-owned services were not responsive to demand and were often slow to lower the cost of conducting business between New Zealand and the outside world. This paper suggests that the deregulation and privatization of government-owned enterprises after 1984 quickly reduced the cost of distance, accelerating the globalization of New Zealand.
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    Global economy journal 4 (2004), S. 6 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper evaluates the impact of China's WTO entry and the establishment of a free-trade agreement between China and ASEAN on the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). We examine the trade competition between the two regions using a market-share model and assess the impact of China's WTO entry on the ASEAN-5 with an exchange rate-tariff model, based on two-digit SITC data. It is found that for the period 1987 to 2000 the competition in trade only occurred between China and Singapore in manufacturing goods, while the competition between China and other four nations was in primary goods. The trade-widening opportunity between the two regions appears much larger than the competitive challenges for ASEAN-5 after the WTO entry of China and the establishment of FTA between ASEAN and China, impacts on different industries are evaluated.
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    Global economy journal 2 (2001), S. 7 
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    Notes: ARTICLES Whither Globalization? Anthony Scaperlanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81 The Concept of "Globalization"? H. Peter Gray. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99 Trade Openness in the Interwar Period James M. Lutz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117 Foreign Direct and Foreign Portfolio Investment: Two Sides of the Same Coin? John R. Dilyard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129 The Globalization of Competition Law in the New Millennium James B. Kobak, Jr., Patrick Landers and Mark A.A. Warner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149
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    Global economy journal 1 (2000), S. 7 
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    Notes: ARTICLES Backlash Against Globalization? Alfred E. Eckes ..................................117 Restraining International Capital Movements:What Does It Mean? Graham Bird, Ramkishen S. Rajan .................................. 137 Rational Bubbles and Uncovered Interest-rate Parity: Retrospective and Prospective E. Ray Canterbery ..................................167 Restoring Asian Economies After the Financial Markets Collapse of 1997-98 M. Raquibuz Zaman .................................. 179 Development Strategy and Bias in Technological Change Fatma Taskin, Osman Zaim .................................. 191
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    Frontiers of theoretical economics 1.2002, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1534-5955
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A family of ascending package auction models is introduced in which bidders may determine their own packages on which to bid. In the proxy auction (revelation game) versions, the outcome is a point in the core of the exchange economy for the reported preferences. When payoffs are linear in money and goods are substitutes, sincere reporting constitutes a Nash equilibrium and the outcome coincides with the Vickrey auction outcome. Even when goods are not substitutes, ascending proxy auction equilibria lie in the core with respect to the true preferences. Compared to the Vickrey auction, the proxy auctions generate higher equilibrium revenues, are less vulnerable to shill bidding and collusion, can handle budget constraints much more robustly, and may provide better ex ante investment incentives.
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    Advances of theoretical economics 3.2003, 1, art3 
    ISSN: 1534-5963
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We analyze a family of extensive-form solution procedures for games with incomplete information that do not require the specification of an epistemic type space a la Harsanyi, but can accommodate a (commonly known) collection of explicit restrictions D on first-order beliefs. For any fixed D we obtain a solution called D-rationalizability. In static games, D-rationalizability characterizes the set of outcomes (combinations of payoff types and strategies) that may occur in any Bayesian equilibrium model consistent with D; these are precisely the outcomes consistent with common certainty of rationality and of the restrictions D. Hence, our approach to the analysis of incomplete-information games is consistent with Harsanyi's, and it may be viewed as capturing the robust implications of Bayesian equilibrium analysis. In dynamic games, D-rationalizability yields a forward-induction refinement of this set of Bayesian equilibrium outcomes. Focusing on the restriction that first-order beliefs be consistent with a given distribution on terminal nodes, we obtain a refinement of self-confirming equilibrium. In signalling games, this refinement coincides with the Iterated Intuitive Criterion.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 2.2002, 1, art3 
    ISSN: 1534-5971
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper studies an incentive rationale for the use of group lending as a method of financing liquidity-constrained entrepreneurs. The joint liability feature associated with group lending lowers the liquidity risk of default but creates a free-riding problem. In the static setting, the free-riding problem dominates the liquidity risk effect under a plausible condition, thus making group lending unattractive. When the projects are repeated infinitely many times, however, the joint liability feature provides the group members with a credible means of exercising peer sanction, which can make the group lending attractive, relative to individual lending.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 2.2002, 1, art1 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We analyze the subgame-perfect equilibria of a game where two agents bargain in order to share the risk in their assets that will pay dividends once at some fixed date. The uncertainty about the size of the dividends is resolved gradually by the payment date and each agent has his own view about how the uncertainty will be resolved. As agents become less uncertain about the dividends, some contracts become unacceptable to some party to such an extent that at the payment date no trade is possible. The set of contracts is assumed to be rich enough to generate all the Pareto-optimal allocations. We show that there exists a unique equilibrium allocation, and it is Pareto-optimal. Immediate agreement is always an equilibrium outcome; under certain conditions, we further show that in equilibrium there cannot be a delay. In this model, the equilibrium shares depend on how the uncertainty is resolved, and an agent can lose when his opponent becomes more risk-averse. Finally, we characterize the conditions under which every Pareto-optimal and individually rational allocation is obtainable via some bargaining procedure as the unique equilibrium outcome.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 2.2003, 1, art5 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper studies the efficiency of collusion between supervisors and supervisees. Building on Tirole (1986)'s results that deterring collusion with infinitely risk averse supervisors is impossible, while it is costless to do so under risk neutrality, we develop here a theory of collusion based on a trade-off between the risk premia required by (less extreme) risk attitudes and incentives. This allows us to link the efficiency of collusion to the supervisor's risk aversion and to various parameters characterizing the economic environment in which collusion may take place. We are then able to derive implications for the design of organizations, like determining how the number of tasks/agents per supervisor or the level of competition may impact on the cost of collusion, studying the impact of vertical integration on those same costs, or characterizing the role of uncertainty on side-contracting.
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    Advances of theoretical economics 1.2001, 1, art2 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Individuals making investments typically do not have incentives to invest efficiently when they cannot contract prior to their decisions. When they bargain over the surplus generated by their investments, they will usually not obtain the full fruits of the investment. Intuitively, this hold-up problem should be ameliorated if, in the bargaining stage, each agent has alternatives to the partner he is bargaining with. We characterize the matching and division of surplus in finite economies for any initial investment decisions. We provide conditions on those decisions that guarantee that each agent will capture the change in the aggregate social surplus that results from any investment change he makes. We further show that for any given problem, there exists a bargaining rule by which pairs split their surplus that will support efficient investment choices in equilibrium. We also show, however, that overinvestment or underinvestment can occur for natural bargaining rules.
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    Advances of theoretical economics 3.2003, 1, art1 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper presents a very general linear production model which nevertheless shows an extremely regular behaviour. We can ensure the solvability of the associated equilibrium systems for quantities and prices and the nonsubstitution property, allowing for joint production and non-square systems. We also discuss the application of this model to the measurement of productivity differences. The assumptions we use are intuitive and very mild (e.g. they are necessary for the type of solvability we require). Proofs are simple and rely on geometrical arguments (the separation theorems), rather than on the use of the theory of determinants.
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    Advances of theoretical economics 4.2004, 1, art1 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We study policy advice by several experts with noisy private information and biased preferences. We highlight a trade-off between the truthfulness of the information revealed by each expert and the number of signals from different experts that can be aggregated to reduce noise. Contrary to models with perfectly informed experts, because of this trade-off, full revelation of information is never possible. However, almost fully efficient information extraction can be obtained in two cases. First, there is an equilibrium in which the outcome converges to the first best benchmark with no asymmetric information as we increase the precision the experts' signals. Second, the inefficiency in communication also converges to zero as the number of experts increases, even when the residual noise in the experts' private signals is large and all the experts have significant and similar (but not necessarily identical) biases.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 1.2001, 1, art3 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We develop a model of bilateral contracting in a dynamic market setting. Asset owners must be paired via a matching process in order to form productive relationships involving long-term investments and ongoing effort. Market frictions shape the owners' incentives to invest in the absence of complete contracts. We identify cases in which there exists an optimal positive level of market friction implementing first-best investment levels. We also endogenize the choice between integrated and nonintegrated organizational forms. Changes in structural variables can induce crashes by disrupting existing relationships.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 2.2002, 1, art4 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper provides an explanation for noisy pricing based on the strategic interaction of two firms competing in prices. When a firm adds noise to its prices, undercutting it becomes harder. Therefore, noisy pricing allows a firm to either exclude a competitor while charging supracompetitive prices, or to soften competition and have both firms earn supracompetitive profits. Such behavior leads to prices lying between competitive and monopolistic levels, and harms consumers and social welfare. It occurs in equilibrium if firms set prices sequentially, and in some equilibria of a repeated game of simultaneous price-setting if one firm is patient.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 1.2001, 1, art1 
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    Notes: Recent concern has arisen with regard to the potential for introducing competition in previously protected sectors as customer switching costs may make entry (and hence, aggressive price competition) difficult to achieve. An excellent example of this arises telecommunications deregulation with regard to the costs customers face in changing phone numbers. Interestingly, in such cases, switching costs can be ameliorated by incumbent action. For telecommunications, technologies exist that port existing phone numbers between networks. Regulators therefore, favour mandating such amelioration of switching costs but issues arise as to the allocation of the costs of implementing such solutions. This paper examines the issues associated with the regulation of customer switching costs. We compare regimes whereby customers as opposed to firms bear amelioration costs and find that while a customers-pay approach assists in facilitating an efficient choice regarding amelioration, incumbents have an incentive to distort those costs upwards under such a regime. Our central result is that a better approach would be to have incumbents bear amelioration costs but encourage the exercise of 'buy back' options whereby the incumbent pays the switching customer to bear their original cost of switching rather than utilize amelioration technologies. In the case of number portability, this regulatory option is similar to vesting customers with property rights over their existing number that they can sell to their current network.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 3.2003, 1, art5 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We study an incomplete contract model where both contracting parties can invest, and the investments have both self- and cross-effects. We analyze the performance of non-contingent contracts, message games, option contracts and property rights. We find that the first best is implemented if (i) the cross effects are negative or weaker than self-effects; (ii) the strength of cross-effects relative to self-effects is symmetric across parties. If either of these conditions is violated, even message contingent revelation mechanisms fail to provide efficient incentives. For this case, we obtain a number of results characterizing the second best. We find that property rights outperform contracts and partially relax the symmetry constraint. In either first best or second best, the stronger the cross-effects, the lower the value of contracting. The optimal allocation of property rights assigns ownership to the party with stronger cross-effects.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 3.2003, 1, art1 
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    Notes: This paper constructs a model of an exchange economy in which bankruptcy arises in a manner similar to what we observe. Compared to related models, this model is a more realistic representation of some markets in which intertemporal assets are traded. Using standard and natural assumptions, it is shown that every economy represented by this model has an equilibrium. Therefore, bankruptcy can co-exist with smoothly functioning competitive markets in fairly general economies. Examples highlight some welfare effects of bankruptcy.
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    Contributions to theoretical economics 4.2004, 1, art5 
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    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We provide elementary and uniform proofs of order independence for various strategy elimination procedures for finite strategic games, both for dominance by pure and by mixed strategies. The proofs follow the same pattern and focus on the structural properties of the dominance relations. They rely on Newman's Lemma established in 1942 and related results on the abstract reduction systems.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 96
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Contributions to theoretical economics 4.2004, 1, art8 
    ISSN: 1534-5971
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We consider a single object, independent private value auction model with entry. Potential bidders are ex ante symmetric and randomize about entry. After entry, each bidder incurs a cost, then learns her private value and a set of signals that may lead to updated beliefs about other entrants' valuations. It is shown that the Vickrey auction with free entry maximizes the expected revenue. Furthermore, if the information potentially available to bidders after entry is sufficiently rich, then the Vickrey auction, up to its equivalent class, is also the only optimal sealed-bid auction.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 97
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Topics in theoretical economics 1.2001, 1, art1 
    ISSN: 1534-598X
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We consider preference relations over information that are monotone: more information is preferred to less. We prove that, if a preference relation on information about an uncountable set of states of nature is monotone, then it is not representable by a utility function.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 98
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Advances in economic analysis & policy 4.2004, 1, art7 
    ISSN: 1538-0637
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In this paper, we estimate the benefits to countries that purchase goods from China by having access to intermediary services provided in Hong Kong. Traders in Hong Kong supply information on markets and producers in China, which provides welfare gains to foreign firms using these services. During the 1990s, Hong Kong intermediated about one-half of the goods that China exported to the rest of the world. Using constant elasticity demand curves, we find that the gains to intermediary services provided by Hong Kong are roughly equal to the value of these Hong Kong re-exports, and four to five times larger than the markups earned in Hong Kong. Using a linear approximation to the demand curves instead, we find that the gains are one-quarter as much as the value of re-exports, or slightly larger than the markups.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Advances in economic analysis & policy 3.2003, 1, art6 
    ISSN: 1538-0637
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act dramatically altered the economic incentive to bear children out-of-wedlock for economically disadvantaged women or couples most likely to avail themselves of welfare programs. We use data from vital statistics and a difference-in-differences research design to investigate whether state and federal welfare reform in the 1990s reduced rates of non-marital childbearing among women aged 19 to 39 at highest risk of welfare use, relative to women at lower risk. We find little consistent evidence for an effect of welfare reform on non-marital childbearing. This finding is similar to the literature that found little or mixed evidence for an effect of AFDC benefits. If anything, federal welfare reform has been associated with a small positive effect of two to three percent for white and black women ages 19 to 39.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 100
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Berkeley, Calif. : Berkeley Electronic Press (now: De Gruyter)
    Advances in economic analysis & policy 3.2003, 1, art4 
    ISSN: 1538-0637
    Source: Berkeley Electronic Press Academic Journals
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper studies the effect of ethnic ties on trade credit provision. Previous work in Africa has found that entrepreneurs of Asian and European descent are more likely to obtain credit from their suppliers. However, since these analyses use firm-level data, one cannot distinguish the effect of community ties from that of unobserved firm quality that is correlated with the owner's ethnic background. Using data on specific supplier relationships of African firms, this paper more directly examines the effect of ethnic ties on trade credit provision. Results from random and fixed-effects models indicate that firms are twice as likely to obtain credit from suppliers from within the owners' ethnic communities as from outsiders, suggestive of a very strong effect of communal ties. However, these ties accounts for only a small proportion (15 percent) of the overall preferential credit access enjoyed by entrepreneurs of non-African descent.
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