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  • 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
  • Elsevier  (7)
  • American Meteorological Society  (3)
  • American Physical Society  (1)
  • Springer Nature
  • Wiley
  • 2005-2009  (11)
  • 1975-1979
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Keywords
Years
Year
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-06-01
    Description: Five non-eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation models driven by atmospheric fluxes derived from the NCEP reanalysis are used to investigate the link between the Gulf Stream (GS) variability, the atmospheric circulation, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Despite the limited model resolution, the temperature at the 200-m depth along the mean GS axis behaves similarly in most models to that observed, and it is also well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that a northward (southward) GS shift lags a positive (negative) NAO phase by 0–2 yr. The northward shift is accompanied by an increase in the GS transport, and conversely the southward shift with a decrease in the GS transport. Two dominant time scales appear in the response of the GS transport to the NAO forcing: a fast time scale (less than 1 month) for the barotropic component, and a slower one (about 2 yr) for the baroclinic component. In addition, the two components are weakly coupled. The GS response seems broadly consistent with a linear adjustment to the changes in the wind stress curl, and evidence for baroclinic Rossby wave propagation is found in the southern part of the subtropical gyre. However, the GS shifts are also affected by basin-scale changes in the oceanic conditions, and they are well correlated in most models with the changes in the AMOC. A larger AMOC is found when the GS is stronger and displaced northward, and a higher correlation is found when the observed changes of the GS position are used in the comparison. The relation between the GS and the AMOC could be explained by the inherent coupling between the thermohaline and the wind-driven circulation, or by the NAO variability driving them on similar time scales in the models.
    Description: This research was supported by the PREDICATE project of the European Community, and for M. Bentsen by the Research Council of Norway through RegClim, NOClim, and the Programme of Supercomputing.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2119–2135
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: ocean modelling ; gulf stream variability ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We describe a numerical simulation of both concentrated and dilute gravity-driven pyroclastic flows on a digital topographic model of the Campi Flegrei volcanic field. Families of numerical flows are generated by sampling a multi-dimensional matrix of vent coordinates, flow properties and dynamical parameters within a wide range of values. Hazard maps are constructed from the data base of simulated flows, using a mixed deterministic^statistical approach. The set of probable vents covers the area of recent eruptions. Results show the key role of topography in controlling the flow dispersion. The maximum hazard appears to be the NE sector of the caldera. Flows in the eastern sector, including the city of Naples, are shown to be efficiently hindered by the Posillipo and Camaldoli hills at the caldera borders, thus reducing the hazard. The results represent the first physically based estimate of hazard from pyroclastic flows in this densely populated area, and can be used for civil defence purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-14
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Campi flegrei ; calderas ; pyroclastic flows ; hazard maps ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We argue that the recent discovery of the non-Poissonian statistics of the seismic main-shocks is a special case of a more general approach to the detection of the distribution of the time increments between one crucial but invisible event and the next. We make the conjecture that the proposed approach can be applied to the analysis of terrorist network with significant benefits for the Intelligence Community.
    Description: Published
    Description: 77-85
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: crucial events ; against terrorism ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The effect of horizontal resolution on tropical variability is investigated within the modified SINTEX model, SINTEX-F, developed jointly at INGV, IPSL and at the Frontier Research System. The horizontal resolutions T30 and T106 are investigated in terms of the coupling characteristics, frequency and variability of the tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions. It appears that the T106 resolution is generally beneficial even if it does not eliminate all the major systematic errors of the coupled model. There is an excessive shift west of the cold tongue and ENSO variability, and high resolution has also a somewhat negative impact to the variability in the East Indian Ocean. A dominant two-year peak for the NINO3 variabilty in the T30 model is moderated in the T106 as it shifts to longer time scale. At high resolution new processes come into play, as the coupling of tropical instability waves, the resolution of coastal flows at the Pacific Mexican coasts and improved coastal forcing along the coast of South America. The delayed oscillator seems the main mechanism that generates the interannual variability in both models, but the models realize it in different ways. In the T30 model it is confined close to the equator, involving relatively fast equatorial and near-equatorial modes, in the high resolution, it involves a wider latitudinal region and slower waves. It is speculated that the extent of the region that is involved in the interannual variability may be linked to the time scale of the variability itself.
    Description: This research was partially supported by the Italy–USA Cooperation Program of the Italian Ministry of Environment and by the EU projects ENSEMBLES and DYNAMITE.
    Description: Published
    Description: 730-750
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: coupled models ; tropical variability ; ENSO system ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Here the authors present results of an isotope study on precipitation collected during a 2-a period from a rain-gauge network consisting of 6 stations located at different elevations in the Hyblean Mountains (HM) region, in south-eastern Sicily. The slope of the local meteoric water line (dD = 6.50 d18O + 9.87) obtained for the region suggests that precipitation is affected by evaporation during rainfall events. The main variations in rainwater isotope composition are due to seasonal effects and elevation. An average 2H excess value of +21.2&was found for precipitation events less affected by evaporation (i.e. when the rainfall was 〉65 mm/month). The spatial distribution of O isotope composition of precipitation shows a negative gradient from east and south to the inner areas. The depositional rate of Cl, used as a tracer of the origin of air masses, is highest at the coastal rain-gauges (SR and MRG stations) and lowest on the northern flank of the HM region (SC station). Based on these findings, a model is proposed for the origin of precipitation in the HM region, which assumes that a Mediterranean-derived component is the main source of moisture in the studied area. D/H and 18O/16O ratios of inferred meteoric recharge waters were also compared with the isotope composition of waters collected from the main local springs and wells. The best linear fit of the d18O vs dD relationship for Hyblean groundwater is dD = 4.85 d18O–2.01. The enrichment of heavy isotopes in Hyblean groundwater is probably due to evaporation occurring after precipitation events or to a recharging contribution from surface waters (lakes or rivers) enriched in heavy isotopes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2082-2095
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Moisture source ; Hyblean Mountains ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.06. Water resources
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We perform an analysis on the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology considering avalanche size differences. We show that when criticality appears, the probability density functions (PDFs) for the avalanche size differences at different times have fat tails with a q-Gaussian shape. This behavior does not depend on the time interval adopted and is found also when considering energy differences between real earthquakes. Such a result can be analytically understood if the sizes (released energies) of the avalanches (earthquakes) have no correlations. Our findings support the hypothesis that a self-organized criticality mechanism with long-range interactions is at the origin of seismic events and indicate that it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the next earthquake knowing those of the previous ones.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: SOC, earthquakes interaction ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The aim of this paper is to provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanism, through the usage of a non-parametric statistics that leads up to the empirical estimation of the hazard function. The results indicate that the most characterizing temporal feature for large (M 7.0+) worldwide shallow earthquake occurrence is a clustering lasting few years, indicating that the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher immediately after the occurrence of an event. After that, the process becomes almost time independent, as in a Poisson process. Remarkably, this time clustering is very similar to what previously found for different spatio-magnitude windows, and it does not seem to depend on the tectonic style of the region. This may support the hypothesis of an universal law for earthquake occurrence.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake spatio-temporal distribution ; World Wide Seismicity ; Temporal cluster ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The aim of this paper is to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of Central-Europe seismicity. Specifically, by using a non-parametric statistical approach, the proportional hazard model, leading to an empirical estimation of the hazard function, we provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanisms. The results indicate that the most conspic- uous characteristics of MW 4.0+ earthquakes is a temporal clustering lasting a couple of years. This suggests that the probability of occurrence increases immediately after a previous event. After a few years, the process becomes almost time independent. Furthermore, we investigate the cluster properties of the seismicity of Central-Europe, by comparing the obtained result with the one of synthetic catalogs generated by the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, which previously have been successfully applied for short term clustering. Our results indicate that the ETAS is not well suited to describe the seismicity as a whole, while it is able to capture the features of the short- term behaviour. Remarkably, similar results have been previously found for Italy using a higher magnitude threshold.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake Distribution ; Earthquake Forecast ; Spatio-temporal statistical analysis ; Cluester ; Central Europe ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the ‘‘recharge oscillator’’ paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.
    Description: Published
    Description: 274–298
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: El Nino phenomena ; Climatic changes ; Permanent thermocline ; Winds ; Surface temperature ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.02. Equatorial and regional oceanography ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1195-1203
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Decadal Climate ; North Atlantic ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.05. Models and Forecasts ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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