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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
  • Climate
  • American Geophysical Union  (5)
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science  (1)
  • Annual Reviews  (1)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • Wiley
  • 2005-2009  (7)
  • 1980-1984
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  • 1
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    Stress interaction effect on the occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes in Central Apennines (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: In this study, we compute the effect of stress change due to previous historical earthquakes on the probability of occurrence of future earthquakes on neighboring faults. Following a methodology developed in the last decade, we start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the next 50 years for a characteristic earthquake on known seismogenic structures, based on a time-dependent renewal model. Then a physical model for the Coulomb stress change caused by previous earthquakes on these structures is applied. The influence of this stress change on the occurrence rate of characteristic earthquakes is computed, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. We apply this method to the computation of earthquake hazard of the main seismogenic structures recognized in the Central and Southern Apennines region, for which both historical and paleoseismological data are available. This study provides the opportunity of reviewing the problems connected with the estimate of the parameters of a renewal model in case of characteristic earthquakes characterized by return times longer than the time spanned by the available catalogues and the applicability of the concept of characteristic earthquake itself. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: B08313
    Beschreibung: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): Stress interaction, occurrence probability, characteristic earthquakes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
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    Probability map of the next M 〉=5.5 earthquakes in Italy (2005)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: The main goal of this work is to provide a probability map for the next moderate to large earthquakes (M 〉= 5.5) in Italy. For this purpose we apply a new nonparametric multivariate model to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes. The method is able to account for tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatiotemporal variability and tests their relative importance; moreover, it allows straightforward testing of a variety of hypothesis, such as Seismic Gap, Cluster, and Poisson hypothesis. The method has been applied to Italian seismicity of the last four centuries for earthquakes with M 〉= 5.5. Italy has been divided into 61 irregular zones representing areas with homogeneous tectonic regime resulting from active stress data. Besides the magnitude and the time of the earthquakes, the model includes information on the tectonic stress regime, the homogeneity of its orientation, the number of active faults, the dimension of the area and the homogeneity of the topography. The time distribution of the M 〉= 5.5 earthquakes appears clustered in time for a few years after an event, and then the distribution becomes similar to a memoryless Poisson process, leading to a time-dependent probability map. This map shows that the most likely regions where the next moderate to large earthquakes may occur are Friuli, Umbria- Marche, and part of Southern Apennines and the Calabrian arc.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 1-15
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): earthquake probability ; Italy ; seismotectonic regionalization ; statistical modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Format: 2192753 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    Tidal Modulation of Nonvolcanic Tremor (2008)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: Episodes of nonvolcanic tremor and accompanying slow slip recently have been observed in the subduction zones of Japan and Cascadia. In Cascadia, such episodes typically last a few weeks, and differ from “normal” earthquakes in their source location and momentduration scaling. The three most recent episodes in the Puget Sound/Southern Vancouver Island portion of the Cascadia subduction zone have been exceptionally well recorded. In each episode, we see clear pulsing of tremor activity with periods of 12.4 and 24-25 hours, the same as the principal lunar and lunisolar tides. This indicates that the small stresses associated with the solid-earth and ocean tides influence the genesis of tremor much more effectively than they do “normal” earthquakes. Because the lithostatic stresses are 105 times larger than those associated with the tides, we argue that tremor occurs on very weak faults.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 186 -189
    Beschreibung: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): Nonvolcanic ; tremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 4
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    Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate- and state-dependent model (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: We model the spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity during a sequence of moderate-magnitude normal faulting earthquakes, which struck in 1997 the Umbria-Marche sector of Northern Apennines (Italy), by applying the Dieterich (1994) rate- and state-dependent constitutive approach. The goal is to investigate the rate of earthquake production caused by repeated coseismic stress changes computed through a 3-D elastic dislocation model in a homogeneous half-space. The reference seismicity rate is assumed time independent, and it is estimated by smoothing the seismicity that occurred in the previous decade without declustering. We propose an analytical relation for deriving the stressing rate directly from the reference seismicity rate. This allows us to perform a tuning of the constitutive parameter As (where A accounts for the direct effect of friction in the rate- and state-dependent model and s is the effective normal stress) into the Dieterich model through a maximum likelihood method, which yields for this seismic sequence a best fitting value equal to 0.04 MPa. Our computations show that, although seven out of eight main shocks are located in areas of increased rate of earthquake production, numerous aftershocks are located in seismicity shadows. Our simulations point out that the adopted value of As strongly affects the pattern of both seismicity shadow and areas of enhanced rate of earthquake production. We conclude that solely accounting for static stress changes caused by the main shocks of this seismic sequence is not sufficient to forecast the complex spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: B11301
    Beschreibung: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): rate-and-state ; Umbria-Marche 1997-98 ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 5
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    Link between major flank slip and 2002–2003 eruption at Mt. Etna (Italy) (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-04
    Beschreibung: The 2002–2003 Etna eruption is studied through earthquake distributions and surface fracturing. In September 2002, earthquake-induced surface rupture (sinistral offset 0.48 m) occurred along the E-W striking Pernicana Fault (PF), on the NE flank. In late October, a flank eruption accompanied further ( 0.77 m) surface rupturing, reaching a total sinistral offset of 1.25 m; the deformation then propagated for 18 km eastwards to the coastline (sinistral offset 0.03 m) and southwards, along the NW-SE striking Timpe (dextral offset 0.04 m) and, later, Trecastagni faults (dextral offset 0.035 m). Seismicity (〈4 km bsl) on the E flank accompanied surface fracturing: fault plane solutions indicate an overall ESEWNWextension direction, consistent with ESE slip of the E flank also revealed by ground fractures. A three-stage model of flank slip is proposed: inception (September earthquake), climax (accelerated slip and eruption) and propagation (E and S migration of the deformation).
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 2286
    Beschreibung: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Beschreibung: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Beschreibung: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei sistemi vulcanici
    Beschreibung: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Beschreibung: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Beschreibung: reserved
    Schlagwort(e): volcano seismology ; surface fracturing ; flank slip ; eruption ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
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  • 6
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    Role of carbon cycle observations and knowledge in carbon management (2005)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: Author Posting. © Annual Reviews, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of Annual Reviews for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28 (2003): 521-558, doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.28.011503.163443.
    Beschreibung: Agriculture and industrial development have led to inadvertent changes in the natural carbon cycle. As a consequence, concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere and may lead to changes in climate. The current challenge facing society is to develop options for future management of the carbon cycle. A variety of approaches has been suggested: direct reduction of emissions, deliberate manipulation of the natural carbon cycle to enhance sequestration, and capture and isolation of carbon from fossil fuel use. Policy development to date has laid out some of the general principles to which carbon management should adhere. These are summarized as: how much carbon is stored, by what means, and for how long. To successfully manage carbon for climate purposes requires increased understanding of carbon cycle dynamics and improvement in the scientific capabilities available for measurement as well as for policy needs. The specific needs for scientific information to underpin carbon cycle management decisions are not yet broadly known. A stronger dialogue between decision makers and scientists must be developed to foster improved application of scientific knowledge to decisions. This review focuses on the current knowledge of the carbon cycle, carbon measurement capabilities (with an emphasis on the continental scale) and the relevance of carbon cycle science to carbon sequestration goals.
    Beschreibung: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation.
    Schlagwort(e): Carbon sequestration ; Measurement techniques ; Climate ; Kyoto protocol
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
    Format: 406392 bytes
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  • 7
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    Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York (2007)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-05-25
    Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 8 (2007): Q06011, doi:10.1029/2006GC001463.
    Beschreibung: Evidence of historical landfalling hurricanes and prehistoric storms has been recovered from backbarrier environments in the New York City area. Overwash deposits correlate with landfalls of the most intense documented hurricanes in the area, including the hurricanes of 1893, 1821, 1788, and 1693 A.D. There is little evidence of intense hurricane landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense hurricane landfalls around 300 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower tropical sea surface temperatures. Multiple washovers laid down between ~2200 and 900 cal yr B.P. suggest an interval of frequent intense hurricane landfalls in the region. Our results provide preliminary evidence that fluctuations in intense hurricane landfall in the northeastern United States were roughly synchronous with hurricane landfall fluctuations observed for the Caribbean and Gulf Coast, suggesting North Atlantic–wide changes in hurricane activity.
    Beschreibung: Grants from the National Science Foundation (EAR 0519118), Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, and the Coastal Ocean Institute of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution supported this research.
    Schlagwort(e): Hurricane ; Climate ; Coastal geology ; Salt marsh ; Sedimentation ; New York
    Repository-Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Materialart: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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