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  • Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía  (20)
  • La Habana
  • Spanish  (20)
  • 2010-2014  (20)
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Year
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper offers an exhaustive analysis of the effectiveness of several models and methodologies that are commonly used to forecast financial failure: Linear, MDA, Logit, and artificial neural network. Our main aim is to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses, in terms of technical reliability and error cost; to do so, models are estimated and validated, and then used to perform an artificial simulation to evaluate which of them causes the lower cost of errors. Reliability is examined in four forecast horizons, to collect evidences about temporal (in) stability. We also check the relative advantages of financial ratios-based models, versus audit-based forecast models. Our results suggest that all models attain a high performance rate; however, artificial neural networks' forecasts seem to be more stable, both in temporal and cross-sectional perspectives.
    Keywords: G33 ; C45 ; C89 ; ddc:330 ; financial failure ; financial difficulties ; forecast insolvency ; audit report
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 2
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: In this paper we analyze the mediating role of governance quality in the relationship between fiscal decentralization and regional disparities. Previous work has argued that fiscal decentralization has the potential to reduce income differences across regions but that this potential may not be realized because of governance problems associated with sub-national authorities. Our empirical evidence based on a sample of departments (regions) of Uruguay over the period 1990 - 2010 lends support to this idea. The empirical results show that fiscal decentralization promotes regional convergence, and this effect is boosted in high governance quality settings.
    Keywords: D73 ; H71 ; H73 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal decentralization ; regional disparities ; governance quality ; panel data ; Uruguay
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper focuses on the effect of educational and skill mismatches of workers on overall job satisfaction, and on certain job domains such as salary, number of working hours, promotion opportunities and type of activity performed. An ordered probit model is estimated by using a data set from the Survey of Quality of Working Life (ECVT). In addition to the variables related to these mismatches, other variables related to the characteristics of both the individual and the type of work are included. The results show that overeducated individuals show higher levels of dissatisfaction than those in which the fit is adequate. However, it also shows how individuals with a lower level of education than what would be required for the post do not reflect significant dissatisfaction levels. It is also evidence observed that individuals with less than the required skills are more dissatisfied than those with a proper matching. The results support the need to study both educational and skill mismatches separately.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; satisfaction ; educational match ; skill match
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: The present paper estimates the effect over participation outcomes of the new reform to the pension system made in Chile in 2008, using a difference in difference matching estimation. The main results found that the treated group shows a higher withdrawal from the labor market and that they worked an average of 8 percentage points (pp) fewer months than the control group in 2009. The treated group also contributed 18 pp fewer months than the control group, and they have, on average, 6 pp more months in inactive status. Looking at the difference in per capita income, the treated group has an average of US$34 more per month than the control group in 2009.
    Keywords: J38 ; I21 ; C21 ; ddc:330 ; scholarships ; upper secondary education ; propensity score matching ; Differential impacts ; EU-SILC-06
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 5
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper evaluates the impact caused by attaching a personalized pension projection (PPP), to the annually report of pension savings. This PPP shows the revenues obtained by the workers when postponing their retirement three years after the legal age for retirement in the Chilean pension system. The method to correct the endogenous treatment which was used it was a quasi-experimental method using instruments such as geographical and demographical information and the number of post offices by Region. The results show that the PPP's reception once has not significant effect on the retirement decision. However, when the treatment is intensified it begins to be taken into consideration. The PPP's reception during two consecutive years, 2005 and 2006, significantly reduced the probability of retirement decision during the year 2011. Finally, the results show that the treatment has much more effects in individuals with higher pension savings.
    Keywords: J14 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; personal pension projection ; retirement decision ; unobserved heterogenety ; treatments parameters
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 6
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: The importance of Long Distance Commuting (LDC) has increased as a result of the continuous reduction of transport costs. This paper formalizes the relationship between LDC and wage through a job search model where a commuting time variable is included. The paper proposes that LDC be compensated in wage and be increasing in distance, and that the regions which receive more commuters pay a higher premium wage. The results suggest an average premium of 19% for LDC. However, the applicable rate depends on the workplace location of each commuter, and thus it might be as high as 40%.
    Keywords: J61 ; R23 ; ddc:330 ; long distance commuting ; Coarsened Exact Matching ; spatial wage differentials
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: We study the effect of a household subsidy to induce the adoption of more efficient and less polluting wood combustion technologies. We compare, through numerical simulations, several subsidy designs with respect to the impact on aggregate emissions, costs, and cost-effectiveness indicators. Two variables that turn out to be important for the performance of a subsidy program are the remaining time that an existing equipment can be used and the access of the households to credit to fund the co-payment of the equipment. We observe that for different regulatory designs and/or different cost analysis, the performance of a subsidy program based on the cost-effectiveness analysis differs.
    Keywords: Q48 ; H23 ; Q53 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; environmental policy ; cost-effectiveness ; economic incentives ; urban pollution
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Estimating the specific effects of a complete reform of the public transit system of a large city is a difficult task due to the confounding effects that will usually mask the impact of interest. In this study we estimate the impact of the complete reform of the public transport system in Santiago, Chile, named Transantiago, on a specific aspect of interest: particulate matter air pollution levels in the city. Using a regression model with daily panel data from air quality monitoring stations, we conclude that Transantiago reduced the daily average MP10 concentration levels in at least 3.9 μg/m3. This generates health benefits estimated to be close to US$ 200 million a year in our medium scenario, 12% of which correspond to lower public sector health expenditure. If the data for the first year of operation of the system (when it was not yet in steady-state) are excluded the estimated reduction in MP10 levels is even higher. Other effects of Transantiago, positive as well as negative, would need to be estimated in order to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of the reform.
    Keywords: H51 ; L92 ; Q53 ; R41 ; R48 ; ddc:330 ; atmospheric pollution ; public transportation ; public health ; Chile
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: This paper presents a model of political competition to explore the effect that the ideological distance between two political parties has over the provision of public goods. The main result argues that the ideological distance between parties and citizens has a negative relationship with the provision of public goods. In contrast with other models, the result is explained, neither by cooperation problems nor conflict between polarized groups, but because of the political profitability of clientelistic employment.
    Keywords: D72 ; D73 ; H11 ; H41 ; ddc:330 ; polarization ; political competition ; government efficiency ; government employment ; clientelism
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 10
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Taking as a reference a model in which there are a public firm, a national private firm and a foreign private one, it is analyzed both mergers sustainability and their relative effects on welfare. It is proved that the merger between the public firm and either the national or the international private firm is preferred, from a welfare point of view, to the merger between the two private firms if the degree of privatization is relatively low and the foreign ownership of the merged firm is relatively high.
    Keywords: L00 ; L13 ; L33 ; ddc:330 ; mixed oligopoly ; mergers ; Oligopol ; Multinationales Unternehmen ; Fusion
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: In this paper we study the presence of calendar anomalies in the main Latin- American stock markets, for the 1993 to 2007 period. The literature has shown that the detection of those effects may depend on error distribution assumptions (Baker et al., 2008), and that their existence could be due to a problem of data snooping (Sullivan et al., 2001). In response to these problems, Cho et al. (2007) introduced a robust non-parametric test, which was adopted in this paper. Results show that calendar anomalies: Monday and Weekend Effects are present in the main Latin-American stock markets, and they are statistically significant.
    Keywords: F3 ; F4 ; G1 ; ddc:330 ; Day of the Week Effect ; stochastic dominance ; emerging markets ; Aktienmarkt ; Kalendereffekt ; Schwellenländer ; Lateinamerika
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 12
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This study measures the impact of changes in the income determinants on inequality in the 1990 to 2003 period, in order to answer the question of why income distribution as a whole has not changed. The methodology utilized are micro-simulations of income distribution, which is the most appropriate technique for analyzing the relationship between changes in determinant factors and changes in income inequality. It is analyzed the role of returns, participation rates, occupational choices, schooling endowments, subsidies, pensions and household size. The inertia shown by inequality reflects the interplay of factors that cancel each other out, others that operate slowly over time, and the emergence of new developments that affect distribution. Furthermore, there are no clear indications that this situation will change over the next few years. Progress in this area will require a more active public policy than in the past.
    Keywords: D3 ; J2 ; J3 ; ddc:330 ; microsimulation ; income distribution ; inequality ; pensions ; labor participation ; returns to schooling ; Einkommensverteilung ; Chile
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 13
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Using a gravity model, this article presents an analysis of aggregate trade flows aimed at identifying China's impact on Latin America's trade. The results obtained indicate that: i) China's growth in the last years implied a growing supply of exports to this market from most countries in the World, including that of Latin American countries; ii) at the aggregate level, there was no indication that Chinese exports to third markets were crowding out LAC exports to those countries; and iii) a positive relationship between imports from China and exports to third markets was only found for the Southern Cone countries.
    Keywords: F10 ; F12 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; bilateral trade ; gravity model ; poisson regression ; China ; Latin America ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Gravitationsmodell ; China ; Lateinamerika
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2016-09-29
    Description: Within the area of Behavioral game theory, we focus on a specific context, namely, on a game we called the Alternative traveler's dilemma. In this context, we observe that participants tend to choose strictly dominated strategies. In order to explain similar tendencies in other games, researchers in the area have postulated either cognitive biases or motivational factors. We postulate a psychological factor called 'goal accessibility bias' to explain the tendencies at stake. This factor involves both cognitive and motivational aspects. We survey a series of experimental results that favor such an explanation over more frugal alternatives.
    Keywords: C7 ; C91 ; ddc:330 ; game theory ; experiments ; maximization ; alternative traveler's dilemma ; goals ; Spieltheorie ; Verhaltensökonomik ; Urlaubsverhalten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: In the Latin American context, Chile has the highest level of per capita income and the human development index, though the distribution of income is quite unequal. Unlike Uruguay, Chile has one of the more unequal income distributions of the region. In 2003, Chile had Gini Coefficient of 8.5 points higher than Uruguay. Using micro/simulations, the analysis shows that most of the difference regarding income distribution comes from the wealthier households, particularly those that belong to the top 2%. Those households get the greatest proportion of resources coming from non-labor income. At the same time, the difference in returns to higher education explains another 20% of the income differences between Chile and Uruguay. Social conditions such as social security benefits and the participation of women in the labor market are not significant to explain the differences between these countries. Finally, this paper shows that national account adjustment to income information in Chilean households´ survey explains a third of the Gini coefficient gap between Chile and Uruguay, without the national account adjustment, the income distribution gap among both countries would diminish in three points from earlier estimation. Even though this significative reduction the reasons to explain the gap would remain identical than previous analysis.
    Keywords: D3 ; J2 ; J3 ; ddc:330 ; microsimulation ; income distribution , inequality ; pensions ; labor participation ; returns to schooling ; Einkommensverteilung ; Disparitätsmaß ; Regionale Einkommensverteilung ; Mikrosimulation ; Chile ; Uruguay
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 16
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: In this article we develop a microeconomic framework to study the relationships among privatization, competition for deposits and performance in banking. Particularly, we analyze banking privatization when competitive strategies of the Cournot and Stackelberg types are allowed. Our findings show that some conditions are necessary to justify it under the following criteria: (i) efficiency, (ii) market power/financial stability and (iii) consumption availability for depositors. They also show that privatizations are relatively easy to justify when leader-follower relationships are allowed in the banking system. Even government revenues, due to privatization, are higher when these relationships exist.
    Keywords: G21 ; D43 ; D92 ; ddc:330 ; banking ; privatization ; competition ; performance ; deposits
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 17
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This article characterizes the properties of the compensation scheme of delegated portfolio management that would lead to the selection of high risk-high return portfolios. In particular, it provides conditions under which a non-monotone payment structure emerges as an optimal contract, which rewards extreme results and punishes moderate ones.
    Keywords: D86 ; G11 ; G20 ; G30 ; J33 ; M52 ; ddc:330 ; executive compensation ; delegated portfolio management ; nonmonotone incentive schemes ; non-monotone likelihood ratio property
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 18
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This paper analyzes entry deterrence strategies at sequential multi-unit Englishtype repeated auctions, motivated by entry deterrence observed at a series of yearly auctions of fishing rights occurring since the early 1990s in the Chilean Sea Bass industrial fishery. It analyzes parametric configurations under which incumbent firms may have followed non-cooperative entry deterrence strategies or else may have colluded for that purpose. A two-stage competition model is developed. In the first stage there occurs sequential auctioning of multiple fishing rights; in the second stage, production rights are used to compete in a homogeneous-good Cournot market. The analysis focuses on the relationship between the number of incumbents, sources of competitive advantage for them (relative to potential entrants) and the number and productive size of the multiple production rights in sale. The core of the analysis lies in answering how does the divisibility of the object(s) in sale affect the possibilities of incumbent firms for deterring the entry of new rivals.
    Keywords: D2 ; D4 ; Q2 ; ddc:330 ; collusion ; entry deterrence ; repeated auctions ; free riding.
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 19
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This paper is about a model of Bertrand competition in a homogeneous-good market with free entry of identical firms and variable returns to scale. If the optimum number of active firms in the market is two or more, and the number of active firms is equal to that optimum number, then Bertrand equilibrium exists for that optimum number, and it does not exist if the number of active firms is less than the optimum. The model, however, does not rule out the existence of Bertrand equilibria with more active firms than the optimum number. Finally, when the optimum number of active firms in the market is one, Bertrand equilibrium does not exist.
    Keywords: D43 ; L13 ; ddc:330 ; Bertrand equilibrium ; variable returns to scale ; free entry ; number of firms
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 20
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    Santiago de Chile: Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía
    Publication Date: 2012-11-22
    Description: This paper makes a quantitative assessment of possible reforms to the Chilean tax system. The simulations are based on a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model that is calibrated with the input-output matrix 2003. For each scenario is considered a cut effective rate of value added tax and an increase in the richest quintile's effective rate of income tax by 20% or 40% respectively. The results of the model are transferred to micro data to analyze the effects disaggregated. Finally, I conclude that cutting the VAT and raising income tax only would generate bounded improvements in poverty and income distribution.
    Keywords: D63 ; E62 ; H22 ; H24 ; H30 ; ddc:330 ; tax reform ; income inequality ; CGE ; microsimulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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