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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (14)
  • 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate  (6)
  • Seismological Society of America  (10)
  • Springer  (10)
  • Nature Publishing Group
  • 2010-2014  (20)
Collection
Years
Year
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: A multi-model set of atmospheric simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) or SSTs plus Greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing agents for the period of 1950–1999 is studied to identify and understand which components of the Asian–Australian monsoon (A–AM) variability are forced and reproducible. The analysis focuses on the summertime monsoon circulations, comparing model results against the observations. The priority of different components of the A–AM circulations in terms of reproducibility is evaluated. Among the subsystems of the wide A–AM, the South Asian monsoon and the Australian monsoon circulations are better reproduced than the others, indicating they are forced and well modeled. The primary driving mechanism comes from the tropical Pacific. The western North Pacific monsoon circulation is also forced and well modeled except with a slightly lower reproducibility due to its delayed response to the eastern tropical Pacific forcing. The simultaneous driving comes from the western Pacific surrounding the maritime continent region. The Indian monsoon circulation has a moderate reproducibility, partly due to its weakened connection to June–July–August SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific in recent decades. Among the A–AM subsystems, the East Asian summer monsoon has the lowest reproducibility and is poorly modeled. This is mainly due to the failure of specifying historical SST in capturing the zonal land-sea thermal contrast change across the East Asia. The prescribed tropical Indian Ocean SST changes partly reproduce the meridional wind change over East Asia in several models. For all the A–AM subsystem circulation indices, generally the MME is always the best except for the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon circulation indices.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1051-1068
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: CLIVAR C20C ; Asian-Australian monsoon circulation ; AGCM ; Reproducibility ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: By analyzing surface latent heat flux (SLHF) data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project for the period three months before and after the Sept. 3, 2010 MS 7.1 New Zealand earthquake, an isolated SLHF positive anomaly on Aug. 1, 2010 was found with a high value of about 160 W/m2 to the northeast of the epicenter. Historical data, background pixels, and wavelet transforms of time series were comprehensively analyzed to study the spatiotemporal features of the SLHF anomaly. After removing the influences of wind speed and cloud cover, the key factor leading to local SLHF anomalies is the surface temperature increment. Combined with GPS displacement observations and tectonic settings, we determined that the physical mechanism of the SLHF anomaly could possibly be attributed to hot underground materials related to high-temperature and high-pressure upwelling from the deep crust and mantle along the nearby subduction zone, thereby explaining the local temperature increment to the northeast of the epicenter, as well as in the center of the North Island and the southwest of the South Island. Furthermore, it changed the specific humidity between the ground and surface air, causing the local SLHF increment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3273-3280
    Description: 1.7. Osservazioni di alta e media atmosfera
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: remote sensing ; earthquakes ; precursors ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.05. Radiation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.05. Downhole, radioactivity, remote sensing, and other methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration provided warmer atmospheric temperature and higher atmospheric water vapor content, but not necessarily more precipitation. A set of experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model forced with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration (2, 4 and 16 times the present-day mean value) were analyzed and compared with a control experiment to evaluate the effect of increased CO2 levels on monsoons. Generally, the monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 forcing are largest if extreme concentrations of carbon dioxide are used, but they are not necessarly proportional to the forcing applied. In fact, despite a common response in terms of an atmospheric water vapor increase to the atmospheric warming, two out of the six monsoons studied simulate less or equal summer mean precipitation in the 16xCO2 experiment compared to the intermediate sensitivity experiments. The precipitation differences between CO2 sensitivity experiments and CTRL have been investigated specifying the contribution of thermodynamic and purely dynamic processes. As a general rule, the differences depending on the atmospheric moisture content changes (thermodynamic component) are large and positive, and they tend to be damped by the dynamic component associated with the changes in the vertical velocity. However, differences are observed among monsoons in terms of the role played by other terms (like moisture advection and evaporation) in shaping the precipitation changes in warmer climates. The precipitation increase, even if weak, occurs despite a weakening of the mean circulation in the monsoon regions(‘‘precipitation-wind paradox’’). In particular, the tropical east-west Walker circulation is reduced, as found from velocity potential analysis. The meridional component of the monsoon circulation is changed as well, with larger (smaller) meridional (vertical) scales.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: carbon dioxide forcing ; monsoon precipitation ; coupled model experiments ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.02. General circulation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this chapter, a review is given of progress to date on an intercomparison project designed to compare and evaluate the ability of climate models to generate tropical cyclones, the Tropical Cyclone climate Model Intercomparison Project(TC-MIP). Like other intercomparison projects, this project aims to evaluate climate models using common metrics in order to make suggestions regarding future development of such models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tropical Cyclones ; general circulation models ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the 20th Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical North West Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Despite the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion of warm SSTs to the subtropics and mid-latitudes, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both Hemispheres. An extended version of this work is in available on Journal of Climate (Gualdi et al.,2008 - DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1)
    Description: Published
    Description: 287-321
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: climate ; tropical cyclones ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Campania-Lucania earthquake. It is comprised of 28 stations and covers an area of about 100x70 km2. Each site is equipped with a 1-g full-scale accelerometer and a short-period velocimeter. Thanks to its design characteristics, i.e. the wide dynamic recording range and the high density of stations, the ISNet network is mainly devoted to estimating in real-time the earthquake location and magnitude from low- to high- magnitude events, and to providing ground-motion parameters to get some insights about the ground shaking expected. Moreover, the availability of high-quality data allows studying the source processes related to the seismogenetic structures in the area. The network layout, the data communication system and protocols and the main instrumental features are described in the paper. Most of the data analysis is performed through the Earthworm software package, that also provides the automatic earthquake locations, while custom software has been developed for real-time computation of the source parameters and shaking maps. Technical details about these procedures are given in the article. The data collected at the ISNet stations are available upon request.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1105-1129
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: early warning ; real time seismology ; Irpinia region ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Seismological Society of America
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: An extension of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is proposed to introduce a priori information about seismic source parameters. In particular, faulting style is taken into account with a theoretical corrective coefficient applied to the attenuation law. The validity of this correction is assessed through a comparison with observed data, attenuation law predictions corrected and not corrected, and the results of attenuation laws containing faulting style parameters. The probabilistic nature of the analysis is maintained, introducing into the classical hazard formulation a 2D probability density function describing the most probable focal mechanisms associated with each seismic source zone. This new expression may also be used in the framework of deaggregation analysis. Thus, the design earthquake resulting from the deaggregation is characterized by a focal mechanism. An application to a site located in the Southern Apennines, Italy, is shown. The result of the analysis emphasizes the importance of strike-slip events in the seismic hazard context, compared with normal faulting seismic activity in this region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2124-2136
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic hazard; Focal mechanism; Ground motion predictive equations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider the general problem of constructing or selecting the “best” earthquake forecast/prediction model. While many researchers have presented technical methods for solving this problem, the practical and philosophical dimensions are scarcely treated in the scientific literature, and we wish to emphasize these aspects here. Of particular interest are the marked differ- ences between approaches used to build long-term earthquake rupture forecasts and those used to conduct systematic earth- quake predictability experiments. Our aim is to clarify the dif- ferent approaches, and we suggest that these differences, while perhaps not intuitive, are understandable and appropriate for their specific goals. We note that what constitutes the “best” model is not uniquely defined, and the definition often depends on the needs and goals of the model’s consumer.
    Description: Published
    Description: 442-448
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: model selection ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration provided warmer atmospheric temperature and higher atmospheric water vapor content, but not necessarily more precipitation. A set of experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model forced with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration (2, 4 and 16 times the present-day mean value) were analyzed and compared with a control experiment to evaluate the effect of increased CO2 levels on monsoons. Generally, the monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 forcing are largest if extreme concentrations of carbon dioxide are used, but they are not necessarly proportional to the forcing applied. In fact, despite a common response in terms of an atmospheric water vapor increase to the atmospheric warming, two out of the six monsoons studied simulate less or equal summer mean precipitation in the 16xCO2 experiment compared to the intermediate sensitivity experiments. The precipitation differences between CO2 sensitivity experiments and CTRL have been investigated specifying the contribution of thermodynamic and purely dynamic processes. As a general rule, the differences depending on the atmospheric moisture content changes (thermodynamic component) are large and positive, and they tend to be damped by the dynamic component associated with the changes in the vertical velocity. However, differences are observed among monsoons in terms of the role played by other terms (like moisture advection and evaporation) in shaping the precipitation changes in warmer climates. The precipitation increase, even if weak, occurs despite a weakening of the mean circulation in the monsoon regions (‘‘precipitation-wind paradox’’). In particular, the tropical east-west Walker circulation is reduced, as found from velocity potential analysis. The meridional component of the monsoon circulation is changed as well, with larger (smaller) meridional (vertical) scales.
    Description: Published
    Description: 83-101
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: carbon dioxide forcing ; monsoon precipitation ; coupled GCMs ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Seismological Society of America
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: The single-body mass-spring analog model has been largely used to simulate the recurrence of earthquakes on faults described by rate- and state-dependent rheology. In this paper, the fault was assumed to be governed by the classical slip-weakening (SW) law in which the frictional resistance linearly decreases as the developed slip increases. First, a closed-form fully analytical solution to the 1D elastodynamic problem was derived, expressing the time evolution of the slip and its time derivative. Second, a suitable mechanism for the recovery of stress during the interseismic stage of the rupture was proposed, and this stress recovery was shown quantitatively to make possible the simulation of repeated instabilities with the SW law. Moreover, the theoretical predictions were shown to be compatible with the numerical solutions obtained by adopting a rate and state constitutive model. The analytical solution developed here is, by definition, dynamically consistent and nonsingular. Moreover, the slip velocity function within the coseismic time window found here can be easily incorporated into slip inversion algorithms.
    Description: Published
    Description: 812-821
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake recourrence ; Source time function ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The growing installation of industrial facilities for subsurface exploration worldwide requires continuous refinements in understanding both the mechanisms by which seismicity is induced by field operations and the related seismic hazard. Particularly in proximity of densely populated areas, induced low-to-moderate magnitude seismicity characterized by high-frequency content can be clearly felt by the surrounding inhabitants and, in some cases, may produce damage. In this respect we propose a technique for time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis to be used in geothermal fields as a monitoring tool for the effects of on-going field operations. The technique integrates the observed features of the seismicity induced by fluid injection and extraction with a local ground-motion prediction equation. The result of the analysis is the time-evolving probability of exceedance of peak ground acceleration (PGA), which can be compared with selected critical values to manage field operations. To evaluate the reliability of the proposed technique, we applied it to data collected in The Geysers geothermal field in northern California between 1 September 2007 and 15 November 2010. We show that the period considered the seismic hazard at The Geysers was variable in time and space, which is a consequence of the field operations and the variation of both seismicity rate and b-value.We conclude that, for the exposure period taken into account (i.e., two months), as a conservative limit, PGA values corresponding to the lowest probability of exceedance (e.g., 30%) must not be exceeded to ensure safe field operations. We suggest testing the proposed technique at other geothermal areas or in regions where seismicity is induced, for example, by hydrocarbon exploitation or carbon dioxide storage.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2563–2573
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; Induced seismicity ; Non-homogeneous poisson model ; The Gysers geothermal area ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On May 20th, 2012, an ML 5.9 earthquake (Table 1) occurred near the town of Finale Emilia, in the Central Po Plain, Northern Italy (Figure 1). The mainshock caused 7 casualties and the collapse of several historical buildings and industrial sheds. The earthquake sequence continued with diminishing aftershock magnitudes until May 29th, when an ML 5.8 earthquake occurred near the town of Mirandola, ~12 km WSW of the mainshock (Scognamiglio et al., 2012). This second mainshock started a new aftershock sequence in this area, and increased structural damage and collapses, causing 19 more casualties and increasing to 15.000 the number of evacuees. Shortly after the first mainshock, the Department of Civil Protection (DPC) activated the Italian Space Agency (ASI), which provided post-seismic SAR Interferometry data coverage with all 4 COSMO-SkyMed SAR satellites. Within the next two weeks, several SAR Interferometry (InSAR) image pairs were processed by the INGV-SIGRIS system (Salvi et al., 2012), to generate displacement maps and preliminary source models for the emergency management. These results included continuous GPS site displacement data, from private and public sources, located in and around the epicentral area. In this paper we present the results of the geodetic data modeling, identifying two main fault planes for the Emilia seismic sequence and computing the corresponding slip distributions. We discuss the implication of this seismic sequence on the activity of the frontal part of the Northern Apennine accretionary wedge by comparing the co-seismic data with the long term (geological) and present day (GPS) velocity fields.
    Description: Published
    Description: 645-655
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: 1.9. Rete GPS nazionale
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake ; CFF analysis ; Tectonic ; geodynamic ; Seismic source ; Northern apennine (Italy) ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The societal importance and implications of seismic hazard assessment forces the scientific community to pay an increasing attention to the evaluation of uncertainty, to provide accurate assessments. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) formally accounts for the natural variability of the involved phenomena, from seismic sources to wave propagation. Recently, an increasing attention is paid to the consequences that alternative modeling procedures have on hazard results. This uncertainty, essentially of epistemic nature, has been shown to have major impacts on PSHA results, leading to extensive applications of techniques like the Logic Tree. Here, we develop a formal Bayesian inference scheme for PSHA that allows, on one side, to explicitly account for all uncertainties and, on the other side, to consider a larger set of sources of information, from heterogeneous models to past data. This process decreases the chance of undesirable biases, and leads to a controlled increase of the precision of the probabilistic assessment. In addition, the proposed Bayesian scheme allows (i) the assignment of a ’subjective’ reliability to single models, without requirement of completeness or homogeneity, and (ii) a transparent and uniform evaluation of the ’strength’ of each piece of information used on the final results. The applicability of the method is demonstrated through the assessment of seismic hazard in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy), in which the results of a traditional Cornell-McGuire hazard model based on a Logic Tree are locally updated with the historical macroseismic records, to provide a unified assessment that accounts for both sources of information.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1709-1722
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Cornell-McGuire approach ; site intensity ; Bayesian inference ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 20 May 2012, at 02:03:52 GMT, an earthquake with Mw 6.1 (RCMT, http://www.bo.ingv.it/RCMT) occurred in northern Italy striking a densely populated area. The mainshock was followed a few hours later by two severe aftershocks having the same local magnitude (Ml 5.1, 1 and 2 in Figure 1a), and by hundreds of smaller aftershocks. Nine days later, on 29 May, at 07:00:03 GMT, a second event with moment magnitude Mw 6.0 (RCMT, http://www.bo.ingv.it/RCMT) occurred to the west, on an adjacent fault segment. This event was also followed by hundreds of aftershocks, three of them having local magnitude 5.3, 5.2 and 5.1 (3, 4 and 5, respectively, in Figure 1a) (locations from Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, hereinafter INGV, http://iside.rm.ingv.it/; Malagnini et al., 2012; Scognamiglio et al., 2012). Despite the moderate number of casualties if compared to other major events in the Italian history, the economic loss was extremely high, resulting in about EUR 5 billion (AON Benfield, 2012, http://www.aon.com/), as the majority of Italian industrial activities and infrastructures concentrate in this area, the eastern Po plain, which is the largest sedimentary basin in Italy. The mainshocks are associated to two thrust faults with an approximate E-W trend dipping to the South (Figure 1b). The majority of the faults in this region are located in the upper crust, at depths lower than 10 km. The two main shocks are among the strongest earthquakes generated by thrust faults ever recorded in Italy in the instrumental era. The Emilia sequence has been extensively recorded by several strong-motion networks, operating in the Italian territory and neighbouring countries. Some of the networks acquire continuous data streams at their national data centres, which are nodes of EIDA (European Integrated Data Archive, hhtp://eida.rm.ingv.it), a federation of several archives, so that the waveforms can be obtained immediately after the occurrence of an event. Other networks, such as the Italian accelerometric network (RAN), managed by the Italian Department of the Civil Protection (hereinafter DPC), distribute the acceleration waveforms through their web site (http://protezionecivile.gov.it). The data set explored in this study is relative to the six events of the sequence having Ml 〉 5 (Table 1) and consists in 365 accelerograms recorded within a distance of 200 km from the epicentres, that were provided by the permanent and temporary seismic networks of INGV, the Swiss Seismological Service (SED, http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/index) and the DPC.
    Description: Published
    Description: 629-644
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Strong motion ; May-June 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake sequence ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This paper describes the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard (PSHA) of Italy in view of the building codes from 2003 to 2009. A code was issued in 2003 as Prime Minister Ordinance, requiring that a PSHA for updating the seismic zoning would be performed in one year, in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, on hard ground. For the first time in Italy a working group, established by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), adopted a logic-tree approach to model the epistemic uncertainty in: the completeness of the earthquake catalog, the assessment of the seismicity rates and Mmax, and the ground motion prediction equations. The seismic hazard has been computed over a grid of more than 16,000 points for the median value (50th percentile), 84th and 16th percentiles of the 16 branches of the logic tree. Using the same input model, PGA values and spectral accelerations for 10 spectral periods were computed for 9 different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. This wealth of data made it possible to base the design spectra of a new building code on point hazard data instead of being related to just four zones. The 2009, Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake has led many to attempt to test the reliability of this study. In this paper we analyze suggestions coming from that event and conclude that significant changes to the design spectra are not be recommended based just on evidence from the L’Aquila earthquake.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1885–1911
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: seismic hazard ; italy ; building code ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
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    Seismological Society of America
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Calculating seismic hazard usually requires input that includes seismicity associated with known faults, historical earthquake catalogs, geodesy, and models of ground shaking. This paper will address the input generally derived from geologic studies that augment the short historical catalog to predict ground shaking at time scales of tens, hundreds, or thousands of years (e.g., SSHAC 1997). A seismogenic source model, terminology we adopt here for a fault source model, includes explicit three-dimensional faults deemed capable of generating ground motions of engineering significance within a specified time frame of interest. In tectonically active regions of the world, such as near plate boundaries, multiple seismic cycles span a few hundred to a few thousand years. In contrast, in less active regions hundreds of kilometers from the nearest plate boundary, seismic cycles generally are thousands to tens of thousands of years long. Therefore, one should include sources having both longer recurrence intervals and possibly older times of most recent rupture in less active regions of the world rather than restricting the model to include only Holocene faults (i.e., those with evidence of large-magnitude earthquakes in the past 11,500 years) as is the practice in tectonically active regions with high deformation rates. During the past 15 years, our institutions independently developed databases to characterize seismogenic sources based on geologic data at a national scale. Our goal here is to compare the content of these two publicly available seismogenic source models compiled for the primary purpose of supporting seismic hazard calculations by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); hereinafter we refer to the two seismogenic source models as INGV and USGS, respectively. This comparison is timely because new initiatives are emerging to characterize seismogenic sources at the continental scale (e.g., SHARE in the Euro- Mediterranean, http://www.share-eu.org/; EMME in the Middle East, http://www.emmegem. org/) and global scale (e.g., GEM, http://www.globalquakemodel.org/; Anonymous 2008). To some extent, each of these efforts is still trying to resolve the level of optimal detail required for this type of compilation. The comparison we provide defines a common standard for consideration by the international community for future regional and global seismogenic source models by identifying the necessary parameters that capture the essence of geological fault data in order to characterize seismogenic sources. In addition, we inform potential users of differences in our usage of common geological/seismological terms to avoid inappropriate use of the data in our models and provide guidance to convert the data from one model to the other (for detailed instructions, see the electronic supplement to this article). Applying our recommendations will permit probabilistic seismic hazard assessment codes to run seamlessly using either seismogenic source input. The USGS and INGV database schema compare well at a first-level inspection. Both databases contain a set of fields representing generalized fault three-dimensional geometry and additional fields that capture the essence of past earthquake occurrences. Nevertheless, there are important differences. When we further analyze supposedly comparable fields, many are defined differently. These differences would cause anomalous results in hazard prediction if one assumes the values are similarly defined. The data, however, can be made fully compatible using simple transformations.
    Description: USGS Senior Scientist In Residence
    Description: Published
    Description: 519-525
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Active fault ; fault source ; database ; seismic hazard ; Italy ; USA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1461-1475
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: atmospheric general circulation models ; climate forcing ; climate sensitivity ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.05. Radiation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-24
    Description: National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 149–180
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic risk ; Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-06-09
    Description: In the frame of the Italian research project INGV-DPC S2 (http://nuovoprogettoesse2.stru.polimi.it/), funded by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC; National Civil Protection Department) within the agreement 2007-2009, a tool for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed. The main goal of the project was to provide a flexible computational tool for PSHA; the requirements considered essential for the success of the project included: •ability to handle both stationary and non-stationary earthquake time-occurrence models; •ability to use ground-motion prediction models that are not parametric equations but probabilistic "footprints" of the intensities generated by earthquakes of known magnitude and focal characteristics. Usually, these footprints are results of ground motion simulations. Some commonly used programs (e.g., FRISK, by McGuire, 1978; SEISRISK III, by Bender and Perkins, 1987) and more recent and state-of-the-art tools (e.g. OpenSHA, by Field et al., 2003, http://www.opensha.org; OpenQuake, http://openquake.org) for PSHA were analyzed. It was decided to focus on CRISIS2007, which was already a mature and well known application (e.g., Kalyan Kumar and Dodagoudar, 2011; Teraphan et al., 2011; D’Amico et al., 2012; see also http://ecapra.org/CRISIS-2007), but also suitable for additional development and evolution since its source code is freely available on request. The computational tool resulted in an extensive redesign and renovation of the previous CRISIS2007 version. CRISIS is a computer program for PSHA, originally developed in the late 1980's using Fortran as programming language (Ordaz, 1991). In this format, still without a graphical user interface (GUI), it was distributed as part of SEISAN tools (Ottemöller et al., 2011). Ten years later, a GUI was constructed, generating what was called CRISIS99 (Ordaz, 1999). In this version, all the graphic features were written in Visual Basic, but the computation engine remained a Fortran dynamic link library. The reason for the use of mixed-language programming was that computations in Visual Basic were extremely slow. Around 2007 the program was upgraded, in view of the advantages offered by the object-oriented technologies. An object-oriented programming language was required and the natural choice was Visual Basic.Net. In the new version (called CRISIS2007), both the GUI and the computation engine were written in the same language. Finally, in the frame of the mentioned S2 project, starting from 2008, the program was split into two logical layers: core (CRISIS Core Library) and presentation (CRISIS2008). In addition, a new presentation layer was developed for accessing the same functionalities via Web (CRISISWeb). It is worth noting that CRISIS has been mainly written by people that are, at the same time, PSHA practitioners. Therefore, the development loop has been relatively short, and most of the modifications and improvements have been made to satisfy the needs of the developers themselves.
    Description: Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC).
    Description: Published
    Description: 495-504
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic Hazard ; Seismology ; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assesment ; PSHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2023-06-05
    Description: A detailed analysis of the earthquake effects on the urban area of Rome has been conducted for the L’Aquila sequence, which occurred in April 2009, by using an on-line macroseismic questionnaire. Intensity residuals calculated using the mainshock and four aftershocks are analyzed in the light of a very accurate and original geological reconstruction of the subsoil of Rome based on a large amount of wells. The aim of this work is to highlight ground motion amplification areas and to find a correlation with the geological settings at a sub-regional scale, putting in evidence the extreme complexity of the phenomenon and the difficulty of making a simplified model. Correlations between amplification areas and both near-surface and deep geology were found. Moreover, the detailed scale of investigation has permitted us to find a correlation between seismic amplification in recent alluvial settings and subsiding zones, and between heard seismic sound and Tiber alluvial sediments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 425-443
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquakes ; Intensity residuals ; Urban geosciences ; Macroseismic effects ; Amplification areas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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