ALBERT

Description: Surface nuclear magnetic resonance (surface-NMR) is a promising technique for exploring shallow subsurface aquifer structures. Surface-NMR can be applied in environments that are characterized as a 1-D layered Earth. The technique utilizes a single loop and is referred to as magnetic resonance sounding. The technique referred to as magnetic resonance tomography (MRT) allows complex 2-D aquifer structures to be explored. Currently, MRT requires multiple loops and a roll along measurement scheme, which causes long survey time. We propose a loop layout using an elongated transmitter and an in-loop receiver arrays (ETRA) to conduct a 2-D survey with just one measurement. We present a comprehensive comparison between the new layout and the common approaches based on sensitivity and resolution analyses and show synthetic and field data. The results show that ETRA generates subsurface images at sufficient resolution with significantly lower survey times than other loop layouts.

Description: We studied ionospheric responses to the 2012 April 11 M w 8.6 North Sumatra earthquake using total electron content (TEC) measurements with the regional Global Navigation Satellite System network. This earthquake ruptured the oceanic lithosphere off the Indian Ocean coast of North Sumatra, and is known as the largest strike-slip earthquake ever recorded. Coseismic ionospheric disturbances (CIDs) with rapid TEC enhancement of a few TEC units propagated northward with a speed of acoustic waves (~1 km s –1 ). Resonant atmospheric oscillation with a frequency ~4 mHz have been found as monochromatic oscillation of TEC lasting for an hour after the main shock and the largest aftershock. We compared CID amplitudes of 21 earthquakes world-wide with moment magnitudes ( M w ) 6.6–9.2. They roughly obeyed a law such that CID amplitude increases by two orders of magnitude for the M w increase of three. The 2012 North Sumatra earthquakes slightly deviated negatively from the trend possibly reflecting their strike-slip mechanisms, that is small vertical crustal movements for their magnitudes.

Description: This study presents evidence from a survey and choice experiment on the preferences of Hispanic immigrants who entered the United States illegally for different immigration reform proposal attributes. Key components of the current competing US Senate and House immigration reform bills are considered including pathways to legal permanent residence, temporary work visas, family visitation rights, and access to medical care. The results quantify the value Hispanic immigrants place on different policy attributes and suggest that longer-term work visas are highly valued. Ability to legally work in the United States and a pathway to citizenship are substantially more valued than social services such as medical care and social security benefits.

Description: Sometimes, authorities are unable to rapidly identify the origin of a tainted product. In such cases, recalls or warnings often apply to all suppliers, even to those that had not contributed to the contamination. Traceability enables more targeted recalls by identifying the product's origin more specifically. In this article, we show how increased traceability protects the reputation of industries by limiting the size of recalls. We show the relationships between traceability and the level of food safety with many identical small farms in a competitive industry and for an industry using collective action to set rules and standards.

Description: This paper analyses the impact of the recent decision by the European Union to ‘decouple’ agricultural support payments from agricultural production on Irish farmers' land market decisions. The land market participation decisions of Irish farmers are modelled using a dynamic probit model, while the extent of participation decisions is modelled using a dynamic tobit model. Decoupling does not appear to have significantly altered farmers' land market decisions. One likely explanation for this is the cross-compliance obligation for farmers to maintain land in a state fit for agricultural production in order to receive their full payments.

Description: This paper evaluates the farm-level supply and income effects from removing milk quotas and reducing producer prices with increasing direct compensatory payments. Using a panel of Belgian dairy farms, we first estimate a multi-output multi-input flexible cost function that generates a U-shaped marginal cost curve for each farm of the sample. We then embed each farm cost function in a profit-maximisation programming model that is built and calibrated for each farm in the sample. Accounting for farm heterogeneity, the simulations show how dairy farms without quotas may respond differently to changes in prices and structural changes that may take place within the dairy sector. A quota removal with a 20 per cent reduction in milk prices keeps aggregate milk supply and farm income at about the same level of the 2006 reference year.

Description: This paper analyses the impact of milk quotas on the size structure of dairy herds in two major EU milk-producing member states, Germany and the Netherlands, using Markov chain models. Four mobility indicators characterising structural change are developed and calculated. Structural change in the dairy sector as measured by the mobility measures is found to be affected by the milk quota scheme. In the quota period, mobility out of dairying is lower, but the overall and upward mobility increase. This effect is stronger in the Netherlands than in West Germany.

Description: We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments.

Description: Consumers' preferences for food safety characteristics are investigated with a particular focus on the existence of an embedding effect. Embedding exists if consumer valuation of food safety is insensitive to scope. We conduct between-attribute external tests for embedding in two choice experiments concerning the value of food safety attributes in minced pork and chicken breasts. We find no evidence of embedding neither when using food safety attributes that are not close substitutes and which exhibit both private and public good characteristics, nor when using food safety attributes that are closer substitutes and which have primarily private good characteristics.

Description: In this article, we present one of the first real-world empirical applications of state-contingent production theory. Our state-contingent behavioural model allows us to analyse production under both inefficiency and uncertainty without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences. Using farm data for Finland, we estimate a flexible production model that permits substitutability between state-contingent outputs. We test empirically and reject an assumption that has been implicit in almost all efficiency studies conducted in the last three decades, namely that the production technology is output-cubical, i.e. that outputs are not substitutable between states of nature.

Description: In this paper, a modelling approach is developed for the treatment of ‘don't know’(DK) responses, within choice experiments (CEs). A DK option is motivated by the need to allow respondents the opportunity to express uncertainty. Our model explains a DK using an entropy measure of the similarity between options given to respondents within the CE. We illustrate our model by applying it to a CE examining consumer preferences for nutrient contents in food. We find that similarity between options in a given choice set does explain the tendency for respondents to report DK.

Description: Economists frequently use choice experiments (CEs) to evaluate demand for new attributes in food products. Using a split-sample experimental design focused on demand for pork chop attributes, we find consumer inferences regarding food safety and quality to impact estimates of marginal willingness to pay, market participation, policy appropriateness and consumer welfare effects. Our results suggest that interpretation of findings should be noted as conditional on attributes included in original analyses. A split-sample experimental approach involving multiple CE designs is described and suggested to practitioners to better consider consumer inference effects in future studies.

Description: Economists have long relied on utilitarian principles in carrying out cost–benefit analysis, but such utilitarianism is typically limited to the well-being of humans. Some prominent philosophers have argued such an approach is unjustifiably speciesist, but what are the consequences of including animal well-being in cost–benefit analysis? This paper considers this question in the context of human altruism towards animals in which people's concerns for the well-being of animals create an externality. After uncovering some conceptual challenges involved in carrying out cost–benefit analysis on animal welfare policies, we report the results of a novel experiment used to measure the public-good value of farm animal welfare, and show that although the average value in our sample is quite large, the result is due to the preferences of only a small subset of the subjects.

Description: Crop insurance is similar to flood and hurricane insurance in that spatially correlated weather tends to cause violations of the independence assumption. Ideally, one would seek to pool uncorrelated risk drawn from the same distribution in crop insurance. This article proposes a testing procedure for the cross-sectional pooling of group units, and empirically analyzes whether the proposed test improves out-of-sample rating performance. We utilize a balanced panel of U.S. county-level corn yields for 510 counties, and the results of an out-of-sample crop insurance rating performance exercise provide economic significance to the proposed pooling methodology and results.

Description: Is low input use by poor, smallholder farmers caused by time-inconsistent behavior or by limited ability to buy inputs? Are input subsidies the best solution to stimulate input demand or are there smarter solutions? These issues are investigated by combining survey data, stated preference questions, and randomized experiments in Malawi. The demand for fertilizer at harvest time and at planting time, farm gate shadow prices for fertilizer, and the gap between the willingness-to-accept (WTA) and willingness-to-pay (WTP) prices for a standard input package were investigated. Significant effects of timing and of cash constraints were found, suggesting the possibility that smarter designs exist, such as distribution of smaller packages from harvest time to planting time.

Description: This paper studies the effect of political regime transitions on public policy using a new data set on global agricultural and food policies over a 50-year period (including data from 74 developing and developed countries over the 1955–2005 period). We find evidence that democratization leads to a reduction of agricultural taxation, an increase in agricultural subsidization, or both. The empirical findings are consistent with the predictions of the median voter model because political transitions occurred primarily in countries with a majority of farmers. The results are robust to different specifications, estimation approaches, and variable definitions.

Description: In times of highly volatile commodity markets, governments often try to protect their populations from rapidly rising food prices, which can be particularly harmful for the poor. A potential solution for food-deficit countries is to hold strategic reserves that can be called on when international prices spike. But how large should strategic stockpiles be, and what rules should govern their release? In this paper, we develop a dynamic competitive storage model for wheat in the Middle East and North Africa region, where imported wheat is the most significant component of the average diet. We analyze a strategy that sets aside wheat stockpiles, which can be used to keep domestic prices below a targeted price. Our analysis shows that if the target price is set high and reserves are adequate, the strategy can be effective and robust. Contrary to most interventions, strategic storage policies are counter-cyclical, and when the importing region is sufficiently large, a regional policy can smooth global prices. Simulations indicate that this is the case for the Middle East and North Africa region. Nevertheless, the policy is more costly than a procyclical policy similar to food stamps that uses targeted transfers to directly offset high prices with a subsidy.

Description: The Minnesota Food Network is a limited liability company comprised of 52 farmers producing a variety of high-quality, sustainably produced agricultural products in southern Minnesota. The network's goal is to develop a regional food system to provide locally grown food at a price that "is fair" to both consumers and producers. This case outlines the challenges that the network faces in their efforts to expand to take advantage of a market opportunity. One of their biggest challenges is that they face high operating costs because of their disaggregated distribution system and need to purchase a distribution and storage facility and two vehicles. They will fund the purchase of a building through an angel investor. An angel investor is necessary because the network cannot sustain traditional loan payments in its current form. Students are asked to consider a number of questions pertaining to the decisions in this case outlined in the final section of the case study.

Description: Simulated prices from a stochastic storage model are used to examine the price impacts of speculation by rational investors who diversify their financial portfolios by holding agricultural commodity futures. The main result is that rather than destabilizing commodity prices, as is commonly believed, portfolio speculation actually reduces price volatility. Portfolio speculation can potentially destabilize a commodity's price because the additional demand for long futures by speculators is expected to drive up the cash price during both periods of low net demand, when the cash price is below average, and periods of high net demand, when the cash price is above average. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the higher level of inventory that is associated with portfolio speculation results in a larger release of stocks during periods of high net demand. The price simulations reveal that this stock adjustment effect is strong since overall price volatility is smaller rather than larger with portfolio speculation.

Description: This paper uses framed choice experiments to examine the preferences of smallholder farmers in Malawi regarding alternative policy-based incentives to adopt conservation practices that reduce soil erosion and increase yields. The policy incentives offered in the choice experiments included an ideal index-based crop insurance contract, an index insurance contract with basis risk, cash payments, and fertilizer subsidies. Prior to implementing the choice experiments, the farmers participated in a workshop utilizing small group-based dynamic learning games that demonstrated how index-based crop insurance contracts function. The choice experiment results indicate that most farmers preferred cash payments to index insurance contracts, even when the insurance contracts offered substantially higher expected returns. Further, more risk averse farmers were more likely to prefer cash payments than less risk averse and risk loving farmers.

Description: We develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in U.S. crop programs. For corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt, the effect of base updating is relatively small because relevant crop alternatives are subject to similar policies and the alternatives are substitutes in production. Increasing acreage of one program crop to capture future payments from base updating reduces future payments from the alternative crop. We also use our model to assess the effect of base updating on acreage response to prices.

Description: A substantial share of U.S. hog producers incorporate antimicrobial drugs into their livestock's feed or water at sub-therapeutic levels to promote feed efficiency and weight gain. Recently, in response to concerns that the overuse of antibiotics in livestock could promote the development of antimicrobial drug-resistant bacteria, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration adopted a strategy to phase out the use of antibiotics for production purposes. This study uses a stochastic frontier model and data from the 2009 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey of feeder-to-finish hog producers to estimate the potential effects on hog output and output variability resulting from a ban on antibiotics used for growth promotion. We use propensity score nearest neighbor matching to create a balanced sample of sub-therapeutic antibiotic (STA) users and nonusers. We estimate the frontier model for the pooled sample and separately for users and non-users—which allows for a flexible interaction between STA use and the production technology. Point estimates for the matched sample indicate that STA use has a small positive effect on productivity and production risk, increasing output by 1.0–1.3% and reducing the standard deviation of unexplained output by 1.4%. The results indicate that improvements in productivity resulted exclusively from technological improvement rather than from an increase in technical efficiency.

Description: We investigate farm size inequality in France using agricultural censuses and farm structure surveys at the NUTS3 level (‘départements’) during the period 1970–2007. Using calculated Gini coefficients, we show that farm size inequality has not systematically increased in France. An econometric analysis of the determinants of farm size inequality reveals that policy measures significantly affected farm size inequality, with most of the measures considered decreasing it. Empirical results suggest that the main contributor was the activity of the SAFER (Société d'Aménagement Foncier et d'Etablissement Rural), a specific feature of the French farm structural policy aimed at regulating rural land management. Besides, this research highlights the great complexity of the dynamics underlying the evolution of farm size distribution.

Description: This paper analyses implementation policies of environmental quota trade, with the Flemish nutrient production rights as an example. Implementation policies concern the transaction quantity, quota reduction and prevention of speculation. They are analysed with a static and a dynamic multi-agent quota trade model. The static model with discrete non-auctioned quota trade shows that the obligation for quota sellers to entirely stop their production stimulates structural change. The dynamic model version indicates that a flat rate reduction on traded quota and measures taken to prevent speculation combined with too low penalties for overuse stimulate the total production.

Description: European cattle markets have recently undergone significant change. We explore the simultaneous impacts of agricultural policy reform and the occurrence of an animal health crisis on spatial interdependencies of calf prices of four major European Union markets. The markets are found to be integrated. Price shocks are rapidly absorbed. We find that the member state specific implementations of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy reforms significantly affected prices of both the national market and of other member states. The blue tongue disease further induced structural change. Using counterfactual scenarios, we show that the decoupling of payments from production led to reduced calf prices.

Description: We apply a spatial price equilibrium model of the world sugar market to simulate an abolition of the European Union (EU) quota system in 2015/16. To overcome the normative nature of the approach, we calibrate the model by attaching a non-linear cost term to each trade flow. This is in some regards similar to positive mathematical programming. We suggest an economic interpretation and an econometric specification of the cost term. EU sugar production is simulated to increase from 13.3 to 15.5 million tons in case of quota abolition by 2019/20. Ten member states increase production, nine reduce it. Preferential imports are significantly reduced. Simulated effects are found to be more pronounced the higher the world market price.

Description: Broad-band magnetic susceptibility (MS) measurement, a novel magnetic method capable of quantifying a narrow grain size distribution (GSD) of superparamagnetic (SP) particles by measuring low-field MS at a number of frequency steps spanning four orders of magnitude, has been tested in a loess/palaeosol section at Luochuan in the Chinese Loess Plateau. The studied succession consists of sequences from the latest palaeosol unit (S0) to the upper part of the loess unit (L2), spanning the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Reconstructed GSDs consist of volume fractions on the order of 10 –24 m 3 , and the mean GSDs are modal but with distinctive skewness among the loess, the weakly developed palaeosols (weak palaeosols), and the mature palaeosols. This indicates that the mean volume of SP particles in this loess/palaeosol sequence tends to increase during the transition from loess -〉 weak palaeosol -〉 palaeosol, an indication of grain growth as pedogenesis progresses. Total frequency dependence, or TFD(per cent), the difference between 130 at the lowest (130 Hz) and 500k at the highest (500 kHz) frequencies normalized to 130 , is judged to be a more suitable index than previous frequency dependence parameters for the concentration of SP particles. TFD(per cent) has a strong correlation with 130 , showing a continuous ‘growth curve’ with the rate of increase being highest for the loess, moderate for the weak palaeosols, and saturated for the palaeosols. The characteristic curve suggests that smaller SP particles are preferentially formed in the earlier stage of pedogenesis rather than the later phase when even larger particles are formed in mature palaeosols. These results demonstrate that the broad-band MS measurement method will be useful for the quantitative assessment of magnetic nanoparticles in soils and sediments.

Description: Environmental magnetism can provide simple and fast methods to semi-quantify the contamination levels by heavy metals in urban areas from the relationships between the magnetic properties and the heavy metal concentrations. The aim of this study is to explore the interpretation of selected magnetic parameters as proxies for the evaluation of heavy metal contamination in urban dusts. Dust samples were collected from different districts of Nanjing, Southeast China. The magnetic properties of dusts were analysed and heavy metal (Fe, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sr, V and Zn) concentrations were measured. Magnetic minerals, mainly from anthropogenic activities, are dominated by coarse stable single domain-grained ferrimagnetic minerals. The – T curves indicated that the main magnetic minerals are magnetite and hematite. Magnetic properties exhibited similar spatial distribution and significant positive correlations with the concentrations of most metals and with the pollution load index. Magnetic properties had a strong link with the abundance of heavy metals derived from industrial emission and traffic activities, whereas there was a poor correlation with the concentrations of metals from multi-sources such as commercial/domestic sources and natural processes. Besides the low-frequency magnetic susceptibility ( LF ) and the saturation isothermal remanent magnetization, other magnetic parameters can be considered as efficient indicators in the assessment of heavy metal contamination. The linkage between the magnetic properties and heavy metal concentrations in street dusts depends on the sources and nature of their magnetic fraction. Environmental magnetism analyses may provide simple and rapid methods for the assessment of heavy metal contamination in urban street dusts.

Description: We present in this paper an alternative approach to modelling and inversion of surface nuclear magnetic resonance (sNMR) data that has numerous attractive characteristics. By considering the forward and inverse problem in the frequency-domain (FD) it is possible to heavily truncate the band-limited data set with no appreciable loss of information. Furthermore, it introduces a natural method of signal demodulating and sidesteps the rotating frame transformation, which can be difficult to apply to large volumes. By instead remaining in the laboratory frame, phase shifts due to off-resonance transmission and static variation in the Larmor frequencies become simpler to account for. For these reasons, we present the first practical scheme for comprehensively inverting the complex sNMR data set. The use of complex data allows for improved depth and decay constant resolution. However, it requires the knowledge of subsurface electrical conductivity, and by corollary the ability to accurately model those effects in the sNMR record. Finally, the complex FD signal is sensitive to dephasing of the sNMR record due to static magnetic field inhomogeneity. We illustrate the ability to detect dephasing in synthetic and field data and demonstrate an effective inversion which is able to solve for static dephasing effects. This results in better estimation of meaningful decay constants as well as reduced error in extrapolated initial signal amplitude. Both of these parameters are critical for using sNMR in applications requiring estimation of hydraulic parameters.

Description: We report a palaeomagnetic investigation of the last full geomagnetic field reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) transition, as preserved in a continuous sequence of exposed lacustrine sediments in the Apennines of Central Italy. The palaeomagnetic record provides the most direct evidence for the tempo of transitional field behaviour yet obtained for the M-B transition. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating of tephra layers bracketing the M-B transition provides high-accuracy age constraints and indicates a mean sediment accumulation rate of about 0.2 mm yr –1 during the transition. Two relative palaeointensity (RPI) minima are present in the M-B transition. During the terminus of the upper RPI minimum, a directional change of about 180 ° occurred at an extremely fast rate, estimated to be less than 2 ° per year, with no intermediate virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) documented during the transit from the southern to northern hemisphere. Thus, the entry into the Brunhes Normal Chron as represented by the palaeomagnetic directions and VGPs developed in a time interval comparable to the duration of an average human life, which is an order of magnitude more rapid than suggested by current models. The reported investigation therefore provides high-resolution integrated palaeomagnetic and radioisotopic data that document the fine details of the anatomy and tempo of the M-B transition in Central Italy that in turn are crucial for a better understanding of Earth's magnetic field, and for the development of more sophisticated models that are able to describe its global structure and behaviour.

Description: The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of soft rocks was measured in order to distinguish between the effect of remote and local strain fields, determine the size of the related inelastic damage zone and resolve the fault-plane solutions of past earthquakes. The AMS fabrics were explored next to late Pleistocene syndepositional normal faults (total displacement up to ~3.5 m) that cross soft lacustrine rocks within the seismically active Dead Sea basin. ‘Deposition fabrics’ prevail meters away from the fault planes and are characterized by scattered maximum and intermediate principal AMS axes. ‘Deformation fabrics’ are detected up to tens of centimetres from the fault planes and are characterized by well-grouped AMS axes, in which one of the principal axes is parallel to the strike of the nearby fault. Variations in the AMS fabrics and magnetic lineations define the size of the inelastic damage zone around the faults. The results demonstrate that the deformation-driven magnetic fabrics and the associated inelastic damage zones are compatible with coseismic dynamic faulting and the effects of the local strain field during earthquakes. Most of the AMS fabrics show a conspicuous similarity to that of the fault-plane solutions, i.e., the principal AMS axes and instantaneous strain ellipsoids are coaxial. These results suggest a novel application of the AMS method for defining the shape and size of the damage zones surrounding dynamic faults and determining the full tensor of the local strain field.

Description: Very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic waves that penetrate conductive magma-filled dykes generate secondary fields on the surface that can be used to invert for dyke properties. The model used for the interpretation calculates currents induced in a conductive strip by an inducing field that decays exponentially with depth due to the conductivity of the surrounding medium. The differential equations are integrated to give an inhomogeneous Fredholm equation of the second kind with a kernel consisting of a modified Bessel function of the second kind. Numerical methods are typically used to solve for the induced currents in the strip. In this paper, we apply a modified Galerkin–Chebyshev method, which involves separating the kernel into source and field spectra and integrating the source terms to obtain a matrix equation for the unknown coefficients. The incident wave is expressed as a Chebyshev series. The modified Bessel function is separated into a logarithmic singularity and a non-singular remainder, both of which are expanded in complex Chebyshev polynomials. The Chebyshev coefficients for the remainder are evaluated using a fast Fourier transform, while the logarithmic term and incident field have analytic series. The deconvolution then involves a matrix inversion. The results depend on the ratio of strip-size to skin-depth. For infinite skin-depth and a singular conductivity distribution given by $\tau _0 a/\sqrt{a^2 - z^2 }$ (where 0 is the conductance, a is the half-length and z the distance from the centre), Parker gives an analytic solution. We present a similar analytic series solution for the finite skin-depth case, where the size to skin depth ratio is small. Results are presented for different ratios of size to skin depth that can be compared with numerical solutions. We compare full-space and half-space solutions. A fit of the model to VLF data taken above a magma filled dykes in Hawaii and Mt Etna demonstrates that while properties such as depth to top, conductivity ratio, tilt and dip can be determined, the depth to bottom is indeterminate due to the exponential decay of the inducing field.

Description: Correlated data errors (noise) are common in magnetotelluric (MT) data, but MT inversions typically neglect error correlations without investigating the impact of this simplification on inversion results. This paper examines effects of neglecting frequency- and spatially correlated noise on MT inversion, based on a nonlinear Bayesian formulation which quantifies the uncertainties of inversion results in terms of marginal posterior probability densities and credibility intervals. To do so, data with frequency- and spatially correlated noise of differing degrees are generated for several layered (1-D) synthetic cases. Bayesian MT inversions are carried out for these data sets with and without accounting for error correlation (i.e. applying full and diagonal covariance matrices, respectively, in the inversion), and the results are compared. For cases with noise that is strongly correlated over frequency or space, parameter uncertainties estimated using the diagonal-covariance simplification (neglecting error correlations) are found to often be significantly underestimated compared with results computed using the full covariance matrix.

Description: This paper deals with the determinants of out-farm migration across the European Union (EU) regions focusing on the role played by CAP payments. We add to the existing literature in three main directions. First, our analysis has broad coverage (150 EU regions over the 1990–2009 period); second, we work on the entire portfolio of CAP instruments; third, we rely on modern panel data methods. Results show that standard drivers, such as the relative income and the relative labour share, are important determinants of out-farm migration. Overall, CAP payments significantly contributed to maintain job in agriculture, though the magnitude of the economic effect has been quite moderate and heterogeneous across policy instruments. Pillar I subsidies exerted an effect more than two times greater than that of Pillar II payments.

Description: Decoupled direct payments to farmers were introduced in the European Union (EU) in the form of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2005. The 2013 Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) reform changed both the implementation of the SPS and its budget. We assess the possible effects of the 2013 CAP reform on EU land markets, particularly the capitalization of the SPS in land rental values. Our analyses suggest that the implementation details of the 2013 CAP reform will largely determine the impact of the SPS on land markets. The key considerations are the reference period for entitlement allocation, regionalization, payment differentiation, and budgetary changes. Our analysis also implies that a number of relatively minor policy changes could have substantial impacts on land markets.

Description: We examine the effect that investments in education have on household expenditure on fruits and vegetables using a two-stage model that accounts for differences in ability and heterogeneous returns to education. For this, we use the 2008 Consumer Expenditure Survey for the United States. We find that higher levels of education contribute to greater household expenditures on both fresh and processed fruits and vegetables. We find a nonlinear effect on fresh fruits and vegetables, indicating that education impacts the quality of purchases as well. Although nutritional education is often touted as important for a healthful diet, these results highlight how investments in human capital via formal education can potentially improve dietary quality as well.

Description: In this article, we explore how using imputed income data in the Survey of Income and Program Participation affects the observed relationship between household income volatility and food insufficiency. We find that measuring income volatility using imputed income data substantially understates the association between large drops in household income and food insufficiency. After excluding observations with imputed income, large drops in income are associated with a 2.1–percentage point increased probability of food insufficiency, or a 31% higher likelihood of food insufficiency.

Description: This research explores the viability of an alternative design for crop insurance based upon farmer-owned savings accounts that are regulated, monitored, and marginally assisted by the government. Such accounts could be an effective risk management tool for many farmers and could operate without major government subsidization. Relative to the current program, the proposed design should exhibit minimal moral hazard and adverse selection problems, and since farm-level risk does not have to be priced, the proposed design eliminates the premium rating difficulties that weaken actuarial soundness and trigger the need for substantial external subsidies. In addition, administrative costs should be considerably lower.

Description: The recent spikes of global food prices induced a rapid increase in mass media coverage, public policy attention, and donor funding for food security and for agriculture and rural poverty. This has occurred while the shift from low to high food prices has induced a shift in (demographic or social) location of the hunger and poverty effects, but the total number of undernourished and poor people has declined over the same period. We suggest that the observed pattern can be explained by the presence of a global urban bias on agriculture and food policy in developing countries, and we discuss whether this global urban bias may actually benefit poor farmers. We argue that the food price spikes have succeeded where others have failed in the past: to move the problems of poor and hungry farmers to the top of the policy agenda and to induce development and donor strategies to help them.

Description: We report a new method to infer continuous time-series of the declination, inclination and intensity of the magnetic field from archaeomagnetic data. Adopting a Bayesian perspective, we need to specify a priori knowledge about the time evolution of the magnetic field. It consists in a time correlation function that we choose to be compatible with present knowledge about the geomagnetic time spectra. The results are presented as distributions of possible values for the declination, inclination or intensity. We find that the methodology can be adapted to account for the age uncertainties of archaeological artefacts and we use Markov chain Monte Carlo to explore the possible dates of observations. We apply the method to intensity data sets from Mari, Syria and to intensity and directional data sets from Paris, France. Our reconstructions display more rapid variations than previous studies and we find that the possible values of geomagnetic field elements are not necessarily normally distributed. Another output of the model is better age estimates of archaeological artefacts.

Description: We present a rigorous method for interpolation of electric and magnetic fields close to an interface with a conductivity contrast. The method takes into account not only a well-known discontinuity in the normal electric field, but also discontinuity in all the normal derivatives of electric and magnetic tangential fields. The proposed method is applied to marine 3-D controlled-source electromagnetic modelling (CSEM) where sources and receivers are located close to the seafloor separating conductive seawater and resistive formation. For the finite-difference scheme based on the Yee grid, the new interpolation is demonstrated to be much more accurate than alternative methods (interpolation using nodes on one side of the interface or interpolation using nodes on both sides, but ignoring the derivative jumps). The rigorous interpolation can handle arbitrary orientation of interface with respect to the grid, which is demonstrated on a marine CSEM example with a dipping seafloor. The interpolation coefficients are computed by minimizing a misfit between values at the nearest nodes and linear expansions of the continuous field components in the coordinate system aligned with the interface. The proposed interpolation operators can handle either uniform or non-uniform grids and can be applied to interpolation for both sources and receivers.

Description: Are labels good or bad for consumers and firms? The answer may seem straightforward since labels improve information, yet economic theory reveals situations where their introduction reduces the welfare of at least some market participants. This essay reviews the theoretical literature on labels in order to identify and explain the main reasons that may cause labeling to produce undesirable side-effects. In contrast to earlier reviews that either concentrate on narrow topics or treat the subject in a more or less informal way, we bring together the main results from all the relevant topics by presenting and discussing the assumptions and model-building techniques that underpin them. The advantage of this approach is that it identifies the origin of the differences between results, thus allowing the synthesis of results that sometimes appear even to be contradictory. We focus on "quality labels" and examine the impact of labeling on market structure, the side-effects of costly certification, issues related to the label's trustworthiness, the rationale for mandatory vs. voluntary labeling, the level at which the label's standard is set according to the agency that selects it, the political economy of labels, that is, pro- or anti-label lobbying, lobbying to affect the label's standard, and lobbying in favor or against the label's mandatory imposition. These topics cover a wide range of applications, including Genetically Modified Organism (GMOs), organic produce, geographic indicators, controlled origin, eco-labels, etc. We conclude by identifying topics that require further research.

Description: Can food prices cause social unrest? Throughout history, riots have frequently broken out, ostensibly as a consequence of high food prices. Using monthly data at the international level, this article studies the impact of food prices – food price levels as well as food price volatility – on social unrest. Because food prices and social unrest are jointly determined, data on natural disasters are used to identify the causal relationship flowing from food price levels to social unrest. Results indicate that for the period 1990–2011, food price increases have led to increases in social unrest, whereas food price volatility has not been associated with increases in social unrest. These results are robust to alternative definitions of social unrest, to using real or nominal prices, to using commodity-specific price indices instead of aggregated price indices, to alternative definitions of the instrumental variable, to alternative definitions of volatility, and to controlling for non-food-related social unrest.

Description: According to field observations, electromagnetic (EM) signals accompanying seismic waves can be recorded. The orders of magnitude of observed coseismic electric and magnetic signals associated with earthquakes are usually around 1 to 10 1 mV km –1 and 10 –2 to 1 nT, respectively. In this paper, we carry out numerical simulation of coseismic EM signals associated with seismic waves due to electrokinetic effect and compare with field observations. The seismic source is represented by a finite fault measuring 15 x 9 km 2 with a max slip displacement 1.5 m, corresponding to a M w 5.9 earthquake. While using the EM surface boundary condition of continuous horizontal EM components, the magnetic signals only accompany the late-arriving S waves at receiver near the ground surface. This is obviously different from field observations. Thus, we adopt another EM surface boundary condition which assumes the ground surface carries surface charge. For the used half-space model, a surface-charge density magnitude | Q sc | in excess of 10 –4 C m –2 is sufficient to make horizontal magnetic components clearly show up at the whole time duration of seismic waves. When | Q sc | increases, the contribution of surface-charge density to coseismic EM signals becomes more and more dominant comparing with that of the seismically induced streaming-current. We estimate the Q sc expected at the Earth's surface might be a value between –5 x 10 –4 and –0.1 C m –2 by the comparison between numerical results and field observations. The vertical magnetic signals only accompany the late-arriving seismic waves, because they are theoretically only induced by SH wave. The field observation results of vertical magnetic signals may be resulted from the scattering effect or the seismic dynamo effect. We conclude that electrokinetic effect combined with surface-charge assumption is one possible generation mechanism of the observed coseismic EM signals.

Description: Fifteen sites of lava flows from Martinique Island (FWI) have been selected to document the geomagnetic field in the Caribbean area over the past 2.5 Ma and further constrain the time-averaged field during this period. Identical characteristic directions were isolated using both AF and thermal stepwise demagnetization techniques in all flows. Nine mean-site directions have a normal polarity, while three others are reversed. The mean geomagnetic pole position obtained after reducing all directions to the same polarity is indistinguishable from the present north geographic pole. The dispersion is at least 8° larger than the values derived from the time-averaged field models and remains unexplained otherwise than resulting from the relatively small number of directions. The other three flows are characterized by large deviations from the expected north–south direction. One lava flow dated at 1.69 Ma (±0.02 Ma) is likely associated with a transitional field during the Gilsà subchron. The lava flow dated at 770 ka (±11 ka) coincides with the age of the Brunhes-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal and is also coeval with another intermediate flow of the same age found at Guadeloupe Island. The 617 ka (±52 ka) old unit is characterized by reversed directions that are evidently not related to the last reversal, but with other reversed polarity and transitional lava flows of the same age recorded, respectively at Mexico and La Palma island. We infer that the presence of reversed directions with the same age at distinct localities confirms that a short episode of reversed polarity has occurred during this period.

Description: Presently, most loess/palaeosol magnetic susceptibility records are interpreted as following either the wind-vigour model or the pedogenic enhancement model. However redoxomorphic processes induced by waterlogging, often referred to gleying in the loess literature, are also known to alter loess deposits but their impact on loess/palaeosol magnetic susceptibility records has received little attention. The reported rock magnetic study aims to characterize the mineral magnetic response of loess to waterlogging-induced redoxomorphic processes, thus improving our understanding of mineral magnetic changes within loess deposits with respect to environmental and climate conditions. The Nussloch loess-palaeosol deposit (Rhine Valley, Germany) was targeted because it is one of the best-studied Pleniglacial deposits for Western Europe in which numerous tundra gley intervals have been identified. Moreover, a comprehensive high-resolution environmental magnetism study has never been undertaken for this site. Various rock magnetism experiments were conducted at both room and low temperatures to characterise the composition, concentration and relative magnetic grain size of the mineral magnetic assemblage. The relative changes in magnetic parameters within the investigated loess interval are primarily controlled by (1) varying concentrations of coarse-grained ferrimagnetic particles of detrital (aeolian) origin and (2) dissolution of fine-grained ferrimagnetic particles related to in situ post-depositional alteration promoted by waterlogging-induced redoxomorphic processes. Goethite is found to be ubiquitous throughout the studied interval and is argued to have both a primary (aeolian) and secondary ( in situ ) origin. We conclude, that redoxomorphic processes induced by waterlogging, if present, will hinder the interpretation of magnetic susceptibility variations within loess and palaeosol deposits following the expected relationships dictated by the wind-vigour and the pedogenic enhancement magnetism models.

Description: Palaeosecular variation (PSV), as estimated from the scatter of remanent magnetization directions or poles, can be used to shed light to processes in the geodynamo, and potentially, to model the growth of the solid inner core. To understand the temporal aspects of the geomagnetic field behavior in the far past, we have calculated the scatter of palaeomagnetic poles (S) from a set of 55 high-quality observations derived from a new Precambrian paleomagnetic data compilation. Our analysis supports former Phanerozoic and Precambrian analyses of PSV, which favour a lower reversal rate, a higher stability of the geodynamo and a substantially smaller size of the inner core prior to 1.5 billion years ago.

Description: A palaeomagnetic study has been carried out in 29 cores drilled at six different sites from the volcanic products of Lomo Negro eruption (El Hierro, Canary Islands, Spain). Systematic thermal and alternating field demagnetization of the samples’ natural remanent magnetization revealed a northward, stable palaeomagnetic direction similar in all the samples. Rock magnetic experiments indicate that this palaeomagnetic component is carried by a mixture of high-Ti and low-Ti titanomagnetite crystals typical of basaltic lithologies that have experienced a significant degree of oxyexsolution during subaerial cooling. The well constrained palaeomagnetic direction of Lomo Negro lavas was used to perform a palaeomagnetic dating of the volcanic event, using the SHA.DIF.14k global geomagnetic model restricted for the last 3000 yr. It can be unambiguously concluded that Lomo Negro eruption occurred well before the previously proposed date of 1793 AD, with three different age ranges being statistically possible during the last 3 ka: 115 BC-7 AD, 410–626 AD and 1499–1602 AD. The calibration of a previously published non-calibrated 14 C dating suggests a XVI c. date for Lomo Negro eruption. This conclusion leaves open the possibility that the seismic crisis occurred at El Hierro in 1793 AD was related to an intrusive magmatic event that either did not reach the surface or either culminated in an unregistered submarine eruption similar to the one occurred in 2011–2012 at the southern off-shore ridge of the island.

Description: We have performed an extended palaeomagnetic study of the Oslo Graben volcanics, compared to the study of half a century ago by van Everdingen, using modern techniques and a four times larger amount of sites, plus additional rock magnetic experiments. We conclude that the average direction ( D = 204.0, I = –37.9, k = 46.9, α 95 = 2.0) and associated palaeomagnetic pole ( = 48.3, = 155.5, K = 52.2, A 95 = 1.9) of the Krokskogen and Vestfold volcanics together are statistically identical to those of the earlier study. This gives confidence in the fact that older palaeomagnetic studies can be reliable and robust, even though methods have improved. Our larger number of samples, and better age constraints, enable us to separate the data into two major intervals: the younger, on average, Krokskogen area and the older Vestfold area. The results show firstly that palaeolatitudes are slightly higher than predicted by the latest apparent polar wander path (APWP) for Eurasia by Torsvik et al. These data support an early Permian Pangaea A configuration and do not necessitate a Pangaea B configuration. The larger data set also allows us to assess the distribution of the characteristic remanent magnetization directions of the Oslo Graben in terms of geomagnetic field behaviour, which were acquired during a long period of dominantly single polarity the Permo-Carboniferous Reversed Superchron (PCRS). The distributions show a significantly lower virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) scatter at the observed (low) latitudes than expected from a compilation from lavas of the last 5 Myr. The data do however show excellent agreement with the scatter observed both during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron and the PCRS. A comparison of the directional distributions in terms of elongation is less discriminating, since the large errors in all cases allow a fit to the predicted elongation/inclination behaviour of the TK03.GAD model.

Description: We illustrate a new imaging method to estimate the depth to the sources of potential fields and the structural index. The method consists of applying the Depth from EXtreme Point (DEXP) transformation to the ratio (R) between two different-order partial derivatives of the field. While the scaling function of the potential field depends on the structural index, we show that the scaling function of R merely depends on the difference between the two used orders of differentiation. This allows three main features to be established for the DEXP transformation of R: (1) it is independent from the structural index; (2) the estimation of the source depths is fully automatic, simply consisting in the search of position of the extreme points of the DEXP image and (3) the structural index of each source is finally determined from the scaling function or the extreme points using the estimated depth. Besides the well-known characteristics of the DEXP transformation, such as high-resolution and stability, the DEXP transformation of R enjoys one more relevant feature: it can be applied to multisource cases, yielding simultaneously correct estimations of structural index and depth for each source in the same image. However, while the DEXP transformation is a linear transformation of the field, the DEXP transformation of R is non-linear, and a procedure is described to circumvent the non-linear effects. The method is tested with synthetic examples and the estimated source parameters show a good agreement with the true values. The method was applied also to real magnetic data from the Pima copper mine, Arizona, USA, Hamrawien area, Egypt and Cataldere, Bala district of Turkey. The results are consistent with the known information about the causative sources.

Description: Variational data assimilation (4DVar) is a powerful technique for tuning dynamic models to observations, in order not only to forecast future time evolution of the system, but to make inferences about quantities that are otherwise unconstrained by observation. We apply this technique, well-grounded in meteorology and oceanography, to the Earth's core where incompressible fluid motions in an electrically conducting medium are responsible for magnetic field generation. Our dynamic model's momentum equation neglects inertia such that the entire evolution depends only on the structure of the initial magnetic field; time evolution of the system is solely governed by the equation of magnetic induction. Nevertheless the dynamic system encompasses the effects of rotation, Lorentz forces and viscosity and aims to mimic a reasonable force-balance in the Earth's core. Building on the work of Li et al. , in order to optimize the data-fit subject to the dynamics, we further develop the mathematical structure of the adjoint equations of the system. We address the feasibility of recovering 3-D spatial properties of the system using only time-varying 2-D observations of different character. Using closed-loop testing, we demonstrate the retrievability of the initial state (and thus the entire trajectory) of the system over convective timescales, when sampling in regions in which magnetic induction dominates over diffusion. The results suggest the possibility of retrieving the entire trajectory of the dynamo system of the Earth using the 400-yr model of secular variation gufm1 .

Description: We investigate polarity reversals in the geodynamo using a rotating, convection-driven dynamo model. As the flow in rapidly rotating convection is dominated by columns aligned with the axis of rotation, the focus is on the dynamics of columnar vortices. By studying the growth of a seed magnetic field to a stable axial dipole field, we show that the magnetic field acts in ways that significantly enhance the relative helicity between cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices. This flow asymmetry is the hallmark of a dipolar dynamo. Strong buoyancy, on the other hand, offsets the effect of the magnetic field, establishing parity between positive and negative vortices. As the dipole field is deprived of the helicity required to support itself, the dynamo is pushed into a reversing state. This is a likely regime for polarity reversals in the Earth's core. The integral lengthscale at which buoyancy injects energy is not significantly different from the convective flow lengthscale, which implies that buoyancy does not feed vortices at the small scales where non-linear inertia is present. The lengthscale at which the Lorentz force acts in the reversing dynamo is small, which may allow the passive presence of non-linear inertia in the small scales.

Description: A new methodology to estimate magnetotelluric (MT) tensor relationships, called Estimation of Local transfer-functIons by Combining Interstation Transfer-functions (ELICIT), is proposed whereby the MT tensor relationships of the local site are derived using only interstation transfer functions. The MT impedance tensor and the geomagnetic transfer function at the local site are characterised by combining interstation tensor relationships between electric and magnetic fields at the local site with the horizontal magnetic fields acquired at a neighbouring site. The main property of the proposed method is that the employed interstation transfer functions are independently constrained, without the need to acquire the electric and the magnetic fields at the local site simultaneously to recover the local MT tensor relationships. Due to this property, the ELICIT method offers new possibilities for MT data acquisition and processing, providing significant improvements when the magnetic time-series at the local site are affected by local noise or are truncated. Error analysis shows that, even when magnetic fields are truncated, the quality of the results obtained following the ELICIT method are similar to those we would obtain if the magnetic fields had not been truncated. Another important property is that different neighbouring sites can be used to recover the tensor relationships at the local site. Averaging of results obtained using different neighbouring sites can be performed to improve the statistics. For our example data, when the ELICIT method is used to improve the statistics, errors of the estimates for periods between 1000 and 20 000 s periodicities are clearly reduced. All interstation transfer functions are calculated doing remote reference and the bootstrap method is used to compute the errors, when necessary. Long period magnetotelluric data acquired in the Pyrenees and in the Atlas Mountains in Morocco, and magnetic data provided by Fürstenfeldbruck magnetic observatory have been used to test the proposed ELICIT method, with positive results. Due to the lack of requirement that the electric and the magnetic fields of the local site be acquired simultaneously, the proposed method also offers new possibilities for MT data acquisition, optimizing the available instrumentation.

Description: The robust statistical model of a Gaussian core contaminated by outlying data that underlies robust estimation of the magnetotelluric (MT) response function has been re-examined. The residuals from robust estimators are systematically long tailed compared to a distribution based on the Gaussian, and hence are inconsistent with the robust model. Instead, MT data are pervasively described by the alpha stable distribution family whose variance and sometimes mean are undefined. A maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) that exploits the stable nature of MT data is formulated, and its two-stage implementation in which stable parameters are first fit to the data and then the MT responses are solved for is described. The MLE is shown to be inherently robust, but differs from the conventional robust estimator because it is based on a model derived from the data, while robust estimators are ad hoc , being based on the robust model that is inconsistent with actual data. Propriety versus impropriety of the complex MT response was investigated, and a likelihood ratio test for propriety and its null distribution was established. The Cramér-Rao lower bounds for the covariance matrix of proper and improper MT responses were specified. The MLE was applied to exemplar long period and broad-band data sets from South Africa. Both are shown to be significantly stably distributed using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness of fit and Ansari-Bradley non-parametric dispersion tests. Impropriety of the MT responses at both sites is pervasive, hence the improper Cramér-Rao bound was used to estimate the MLE covariance. The MLE is shown to be nearly unbiased and well described by a Gaussian distribution based on bootstrap simulation. The MLE was compared to a conventional robust estimator, establishing that the standard errors of the former are systematically smaller than for the latter and that the standardized differences between them exhibit excursions that are both too frequent and too large to be described by a Gaussian model. This is ascribed to pervasive bias of the robust estimator that is to some degree obscured by their systematically large confidence bounds. Finally, a series of topics for further investigation is proposed.

Description: Broad-band and long period magnetotelluric (MT) data were acquired at 39 stations along five NNW-SSE profiles crossing the Iapetus Suture Zone (ISZ) in Ireland. Regional strike analyses indicate that the vast majority of the MT data is consistent with an assumption of a 2-D geo-electric strike direction. Strike is N52°E for the three easternmost profiles and N75°E for the two westernmost profiles; these directions correlate well with the observed predominant geological strike of the study region. 2-D inversions of the galvanic distortion-corrected TE and TM mode data from each profile are shown and discussed. As mapped geological variations between the neighbouring profiles suggest a heterogeneous subsurface, it is important to verify the robustness of the presence and geometries of prominent conductivity anomalies by employing 3-D forward and inverse modelling. A high conductivity layer (resistivity of 1–10 m), found at middle to lower crustal depths and presumed to be indicative of metamorphosed graphitic sediments rich in sulphides deposited during the convergence of the Laurentian and Avalonian continents, essentially constitutes the electrical signature of the ISZ. Shallow conductors observed are probably due to black shales that were widely deposited within the sedimentary accretionary wedge during Ordovician time. We interpret the moderately low resistivity at shallow depths from west to east across Ireland as indicative of an increase in maturity of the black shales in the easterly direction. From our conductivity models the southern extent of the ISZ is inferred to lie between the Navan Silvermines Fault and the Navan Tipperary Line, and shows clear resistivity contrast along all the profiles at the southern MT stations. The change in resistivity deduced from the 2-D models is spatially related to the composition of Lower Palaeozoic Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian and Carboniferous rocks. At upper mantle depths of about 60 km, a high conductivity block below the central MT stations is found to lie within the accretionary wedge of the Iapetus suture, and the location of the conductive anomaly corroborates reasonably well with the inferred spreading head of the putative Iceland plume-related magmatic intrusion. The low resistivity upper crust beneath the ISZ is indeed rich in Ordovician rocks with black shale content in the eastern as well as the central part; the western part is largely underlain by a highly resistive block of volcanic and metamorphosed rocks forming crystalline basement.

Description: Up to now, most nutritional policies have been set up to inform consumers about the health benefits induced by more balanced diets. Reviews of the impacts of these policies show that the effects are often modest. This has led governments to implement, in more recent times, policies focused on the market environment, especially on the characteristics of the food supply. The goal of this paper is to review theoretical and empirical studies focusing on changes in the food supply induced by alternative policies, and to attempt to draw from them policy guidelines and conjectures to test in future research.

Description: This paper presents new directional archeomagnetic data from nine Meso-/Neolithic fireplaces, sampled in a cave shelter, at Arconciel, in western Switzerland. Rock magnetic measurements indicate a homogenous magnetic mineralogy in all fireplaces, with magnetite as the main magnetic carrier. The remanent magnetization is stable and generally shows one characteristic directional component. Nine new directions, which were obtained from Arconciel, are combined with 356 other archeomagnetic data from a circular area with a radius of 700 km around this site, to obtain a penalized least square spline fit for the past 9000 yr. We found in general good agreement with other local compilations, such as the Balkan curve, the regional SCHA.DIF.8k model and with lake sediments from UK, Fennoscandia and Switzerland. Nevertheless, a time lag of several centuries is observed for a declination maximum between the archeomagnetic spline fit and the other European data records around 5900 BC. This time lag is also observed in the Swiss lake sediment record; therefore we interpret this shift as a local feature of the Earth's magnetic field.

Description: In Christian religion the sunrise is of great symbolic importance. Therefore, many churches constructed in the Middle Ages point towards geographic East. Although ‘easting’ of churches actually refers to the alignment towards the azimuth of sunrise on the individual churches’ patron's day, deviation of nave alignment from the geographic East direction is often assumed to be caused by the use of magnetic compasses. Therefore, the church alignment could provide information about historical magnetic declination. We investigate 124 churches in Lower Austria and 68 in northern Germany to clarify this question as well as the ‘easting’ hypothesis. Church orientations are determined from georeferenced satellite images. Metadata such as the construction year, possible reconstructions and the church patron are gathered to determine the date when current church direction was appointed, and to perform sunrise calculations. However, due to uncertainties of construction years and the declining importance of orientation tradition after the 15th century several churches are excluded from the study. Thus, 32 churches with reliable metadata remain for evaluation in each region. The analysis reveals a preferred alignment of naves towards geographic East in Lower Austria and northern Germany. The construction and alignment of churches was often affected by the pre-existing buildings and streets or topography and natural surroundings. Therefore, deviations from geographic East are more likely caused by town or landscape. The mean deviations from magnetic East in both regions are large compared to the mean deviations from geographic East and sunrise azimuths. Hence, the use of compasses cannot be confirmed. Despite a few churches indicating orientation according to their patron's day, a general trend cannot be observed in the data reviewed.

Description: A new finite difference solution to the global geomagnetic induction problem is developed and tested, based on a modified Lorenz gauge of the magnetic vector and electric scalar potentials and implementing a novel, overset ‘Yin-Yang’ grid that avoids unnecessary mesh refinement at the geographic poles. Previously used in whole-earth mantle convection models, the overset grid is built from a pair of partially overlapping mid-latitude latitude–longitude (lat/lon) grids, one of which is rotated with respect to the other for complete coverage of the sphere. Because of this symmetry, only one set of finite difference templates is required for global discretization of the governing Maxwell equations, a redundancy that is exploited for computational efficiency and multithreaded parallelization. Comparisons between solutions obtained by the proposed method show excellent agreement with those obtained by independent integral equation methods for 1-D, 2-D and 3-D problem geometries. The computational footprint of the method is minimized through a (non-symmetric) matrix-free BiCG-STAB iterative solver which computes finite difference matrix coefficients ‘on the fly’ as needed, rather than pulling stored values from memory. Scaling of the matrix-free BiCG-STAB algorithm with problem size shows behaviour similar to that seen with the (symmetric) QMR algorithm used in the Cartesian case from which the present algorithm is based. The proposed method may therefore provide a competitive addition to the existing body of global-scale geomagnetic induction modelling algorithms, allowing for resource-efficient forward modelling as the kernel for large-scale computing such as inversion of geomagnetic response functions, computational hypothesis testing and parametric studies of mantle geodynamics and physiochemical state.

Description: We present a robust and scalable solver for time-harmonic Maxwell's equations for problems with large conductivity contrasts, wide range of frequencies, stretched grids and locally refined meshes. The solver is part of the fully distributed adaptive 3-D electromagnetic modelling scheme which employs the finite element method and unstructured non-conforming hexahedral meshes for spatial discretization using the open-source software deal.II. We use the complex-valued electric field formulation and split it into two real-valued equations for which we utilize an optimal block-diagonal pre-conditioner. Application of this pre-conditioner requires the solution of two smaller real-valued symmetric problems. We solve them by using either a direct solver or the conjugate gradient method pre-conditioned with the recently introduced auxiliary space technique. The auxiliary space pre-conditioner reformulates the original problem in form of several simpler ones, which are then solved using highly efficient algebraic multigrid methods. In this paper, we consider the magnetotelluric case and verify our numerical scheme by using COMMEMI 3-D models. Afterwards, we run a series of numerical experiments and demonstrate that the solver converges in a small number of iterations for a wide frequency range and variable problem sizes. The number of iterations is independent of the problem size, but exhibits a mild dependency on frequency. To test the stability of the method on locally refined meshes, we have implemented a residual-based a posteriori error estimator and compared it with uniform mesh refinement for problems up to 200 million unknowns. We test the scalability of the most time consuming parts of our code and show that they fulfill the strong scaling assumption as long as each MPI process possesses enough degrees of freedom to alleviate communication overburden. Finally, we refer back to a direct solver-based pre-conditioner and analyse its complexity in time. The results show that for multiple right-hand sides the direct solver-based pre-conditioner can still be faster for problems of medium size. On the other hand, it also shows non-linear growth in memory, whereas the auxiliary space method increases only linearly.

Description: The configuration of the Pangea supercontinent has been a topic of intense debate for almost half a century, a controversy that stems from discrepancies between the geology-based Pangea-A and the palaeomagnetically based Pangea-B. Recent palaeomagnetic compilations aimed at resolving this controversy have identified the poor quality of palaeomagnetic data from Gondwana for Permian times as a major obstacle. Specifically, the vast majority of Gondwanan poles come from sedimentary rocks that are prone to biases from compaction or are poorly dated. Here, we present a new palaeomagnetic pole for cratonic South America based on impact melts from the 254.7 ± 2.5 Ma Araguainha impact structure (AIS). The granite basement, the impact-generated melt sheet and veins were sampled at 28 sites (169 specimens) and provided a reliable palaeomagnetic record similar to that of volcanic rocks. Alternating field and thermal demagnetization indicate a stable characteristic remanent magnetization carried by both magnetite and haematite. All sites but one show a single palaeomagnetic direction of normal polarity with a mean direction of Dec = 357.4°; Inc = –38.9°; N  = 28; k  = 62.35; α 95  = 3.5°, yielding a palaeomagnetic pole (AIS) at Lat = –84.2; Lon = 326.6; K  = 83.5; A 95  = 3.6°; S B  = 9.6°. The new pole provides a firm constraint on the position of Gondwana which is consistent with the Pangea A configuration.

Description: Reconstructions of the Holocene geomagnetic field and how it varies on millennial timescales are important for understanding processes in the core but may also be used to study long-term solar-terrestrial relationships and as relative dating tools for geological and archaeological archives. Here, we present a new family of spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models spanning the past 9000 yr based on magnetic field directions and intensity stored in archaeological artefacts, igneous rocks and sediment records. A new modelling strategy introduces alternative data treatments with a focus on extracting more information from sedimentary data. To reduce the influence of a few individual records all sedimentary data are resampled in 50-yr bins, which also means that more weight is given to archaeomagnetic data during the inversion. The sedimentary declination data are treated as relative values and adjusted iteratively based on prior information. Finally, an alternative way of treating the sediment data chronologies has enabled us to both assess the likely range of age uncertainties, often up to and possibly exceeding 500 yr and adjust the timescale of each record based on comparisons with predictions from a preliminary model. As a result of the data adjustments, power has been shifted from quadrupole and octupole to higher degrees compared with previous Holocene geomagnetic field models. We find evidence for dominantly westward drift of northern high latitude high intensity flux patches at the core mantle boundary for the last 4000 yr. The new models also show intermittent occurrence of reversed flux at the edge of or inside the inner core tangent cylinder, possibly originating from the equator.

Description: Several recent studies have used palaeomagnetic estimates of the virtual axial dipole moment to construct a quantitative stochastic model for fluctuations and reversals in the Earth's dipole field. We investigate the physical significance of the terms in a standard stochastic (Langevin) model using output from a numerical geodynamo model. The first term, known as the drift term, characterizes the slow adjustment of the dipole field toward a time-averaged state. We find that the timescale for this slow adjustment is set by the magnetic decay time of dipole fluctuations. These fluctuations are typically be represented by the first few decay modes. The second term is often called the noise term because it characterizes the influence of short-period convective fluctuations in the core. We establish a connection between the noise term and the rms variation in magnetic induction. Applying these results to the palaeomagnetic field suggests that the rms variation in dipole generation exceeds the mean rate of generation. Such large fluctuations may be necessary to permit magnetic reversals. Palaeomagnetic estimates of the drift term favour a high electrical conductivity in the core. A lower bound on electrical conductivity is 0.6 x 10 6 S m –1 . Similarly, we establish an upper bound on turbulent magnetic diffusivity (0.8 m 2 s –1 ), although realistic estimates may be much less.

Description: With the rise of behavioural economics has come the belief that decision-making biases justify paternalistic policies. Such views challenge the notion of consumer sovereignty and the validity of traditional approaches of economic welfare analysis. While behavioural economics might improve the effectiveness of policies that are already justified on some other market-failure grounds, this article argues that the existence of cognitive failures, alone, do not justify government regulation. If one abandons the idea that consumers know what is in their best interest, judging the merits of policies becomes arbitrary and reflects only what a paternalist wants for others. The typical behavioural economic experiment occurs with college students devoid of real-world context. The biases found in such setting may not extrapolate well to conditions where people have more experience and knowledge, and where they can learn from past mistakes. Even when behavioural biases persist in the ‘real world’, consumers face incentives to engage in activities that protect them from the adverse consequences of the biases, and public policies that shield people from such consequences reduce incentives to self-regulate. The article concludes with some ideas for future research and a discussion of the merits of freedom of choice.

Description: In consequence of strong changes in general economic conditions, adjustments in the agricultural sector can be expected. To date, however, there are only few policy impact analyses on agricultural investments in a dynamic-stochastic context. The objective of this paper is to develop a real options market model which allows the impact assessment of different political schemes. The model combines genetic algorithms and stochastic simulation. Simulations of the model show that investment subsidies and production ceilings are preferable to price floors because the welfare is less reduced for a given stimulation of the willingness to invest.

Description: The aim of this paper is to study farmers' participation in rural development policy (RDP) measures. We investigate to what extent regional RDP priorities are driven by regional characteristics and moreover, whether regional-level policy priorities help to explain farmers' participation in RDP measures. We estimate a multilevel binary choice model that includes both farm-level and regional-level explanatory variables. We conclude that regional governments select RDP priorities based on the specific features of their region. Regional policy priorities play an important role in explaining farmers' participation in agri-environmental schemes but not in measures aimed at improving farmer competitiveness.

Description: The distinction between single farm payments (SFP) and counter-cyclical payments (CCPs) is mainly based on theory. Due to a lack of empirical comparative studies between these payments, it is difficult to confirm the claim that CCPs are more distorting. This paper provides a comparative analysis of these payments and quantifies the impact of such payments in the presence of debt constraints. The main findings are that CCPs are more distorting than SFP. However, the magnitude of the impact estimates is not as large as suggested by the different treatment received by both support programmes in the WTO negotiations.

Description: We demonstrate that first differences of polar orbiting satellite magnetic data in the along-track direction can be used to obtain high resolution models of the lithospheric field. Along-track differences approximate the north–south magnetic field gradients for non-polar latitudes. In a test case, using 2 yr of low altitude data from the CHAMP satellite, we show that use of along-track differences of vector field data results in an enhanced recovery of the small scale lithospheric field, compared to the use of the vector field data themselves. We show that the along-track technique performs especially well in the estimation of near zonal spherical harmonic coefficients. Moreover, lithospheric field models determined using along-track differences are found to be less sensitive to the presence of unmodelled external field contributions and problems associated with the polar gap are ameliorated. Experiments in modelling the Earth's lithospheric magnetic field with along-track differences are presented here as a proof of concept. We anticipate that use of such along-track differences in combination with east–west field differences, as are now provided by the Swarm satellite constellation, will be important in building the next generation of lithospheric field models.

Description: We develop an singular value decomposition-based compression of the Green's function matrix of an electromagnetic integral equation forward solver for global geomagnetic induction, on top of an fast Fourier transform reduction of the system to a block-diagonal form. With this approach, the memory usage and CPU time of Krylov subspace iterative solutions are significantly reduced at a very small cost of accuracy, making the accelerated forward solver well suited for 3-D inversions as well as forward simulations with multiple sources.

Description: The Fisher distribution is central to palaeomagnetism but presents several problems when used to characterize geomagnetic field directions as observed in sequences of volcanic rocks. First, it introduces a shallowing effect when used to define the mean of any group of directional unit vectors. This is problematic because it can suggest the presence of persistent non-axial dipole components when none are present. More importantly, it fails to capture the observed ‘long tail’ in distributions of both directions and associated virtual geomagnetic poles in terms of angular distance from a central direction. To achieve a good fit to data, it therefore requires the introduction of a second distribution (and therefore the estimation of additional parameters) or the arbitrary removal of data. Here we present a new distribution to describe palaeomagnetic directions and demonstrate that it overcomes both of these problems, generating robust indicators of both the central direction (or pole position) and the spread of palaeomagnetic data as defined by unit vectors. Starting from the assumption that poles (or directions) have an expected colatitude, rather than a mean location, we derive the spherical exponential distribution. We demonstrate that this new distribution provides a good fit to palaeomagnetic data sets from seven large igneous provinces between 15 and 65 Ma and also those produced by numerical dynamo models. We also use it to derive a new shape parameter which may be used as a diagnostic tool for testing goodness of fit of models to data and use this to argue for a shift in geomagnetic behaviour between 5 and 15 Ma. Furthermore, we point out that this new statistic can be used to determine the most appropriate distribution to be used when constructing confidence limits for poles.

Description: Haematite pigment is a common constituent of sedimentary rocks, but its contribution to the natural remanent magnetization of rocks is poorly understood. Here, we describe magnetic properties of two distinct pigment types that produce a characteristic decorative ‘print stone’ found in the ~2.5 Ga Mount McRae Shale Formation, Hamersley Province, Western Australia. Distinct magnetic remanence directions observed in the Print Stone can be correlated to each pigment type. By comparison with the Australian apparent polar wander path, the remanence carried by uniformly distributed pigment can be dated to ~15–25 Ma, while two age options, the Mesoproterozoic (~1.5 Ga) or the middle Carboniferous (~320–310 Ma), are permissible for the remanence carried by the pigment responsible for the distinctive ‘newsprint’ pattern. Magnetic properties and demagnetization characteristics of the different pigment types overlap significantly, and thus are not predictive of the dominant remanence carrier. Magnetic characteristics of the uniformly distributed pigment vary significantly on short spatial scales. Strong local control on pigment formation raises the possibility that a primary remanent magnetization may survive locally in pockets within sedimentary red bed formations.

Description: Remanent magnetizations of magnetites between single-domain (SD) threshold size (0.1 μm) and 20 μm have SD-like intensities and coercivities. This paper shows for the first time that magnetite's induced magnetization also has pseudo-single-domain behaviour. The first part of the paper reports temperature-dependent initial susceptibility data, k 0 ( T ), of sized magnetites and assesses their granulometric potential. The second part transforms coercive force data, H c ( T ), for the same magnetites into simulated k 0 ( T ) curves. The third part considers k 0 ( T ) results of coarse-grained mafic rocks as candidate sources of deep-seated magnetic anomalies. High-temperature susceptibility k 0 measured with a Kappabridge for eight fractions of crushed natural magnetites (median sizes of 0.6, 1, 3, 6, 9, 14, 110 and 135 μm) shows a progressive increase in the height of the Hopkinson peak below the Curie point as grain size decreases. The trend is systematic and has granulometric potential in the 1–14 μm range. Self-demagnetization should produce almost flat k 0 ( T ) in grains larger than SD size but experimentally, well-defined Hopkinson peaks are not limited to the finest grains. 1-μm magnetites have a peak 1.5 times k 0 at 20 °C and 14-μm grains have a peak of 1.25. Only 110 and 135 μm grains have T -independent k 0 . Using an empirical relationship between coercive force H c and k 0 , H c ( T ) data for the sized magnetites were used to simulate k 0 ( T ) results. A hump in the k 0 heating curve around 250 °C was traced to annealing out internal strains, evident in H c data measured in first heatings. For sizes ≤6 μm, observed Hopkinson peaks were smaller than predicted, possibly because of a previously unrecognized grain-size dependence of the empirical constant relating H c and k 0 . Two crystalline rocks, a gabbro and a diabase, combine SD-like Hopkinson peaks and multidomain (MD) flat ramps in their k 0 ( T ) data. In the diabase, a Hopkinson peak is prominent in separated plagioclase grains containing submicron magnetite, but is masked in whole-rock data. The gabbro has a clear superposition of SD and MD k 0 ( T ) functions in its whole-rock data, with a Hopkinson peak of 1.35. If oceanic layer-3 gabbros have similar susceptibility enhancement above 500 °C, they could be more important magnetic anomaly sources than room-temperature k 0 measurements on dredged or fault-uplifted samples would suggest.

Description: We examine enrollment in the U.S. Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs (SNAP) and find that while SNAP-eligible adults in poor physical health and with multiple chronic conditions are more likely to jointly enroll in SNAP and Medicaid, they are less likely to enroll in SNAP alone. We also find that the conditional probability of SNAP enrollment given Medicaid participation is higher for individuals with multiple chronic conditions. As a result, the expansion of Medicaid and state policies that promote enrollment coordination between SNAP and Medicaid are expected to increase the number of individuals in SNAP with chronic medical conditions.

Description: At odds with a vast body of economic evidence reporting exceptionally high rates of return to investments in agricultural research and development (R&D), growth in public R&D spending for food and agriculture has slowed in numerous, especially rich, countries worldwide. The observed R&D spending behavior is consistent with a determination that the reported rates of return are perceived as implausible by policy makers. We examine this notion by scrutinizing 2,242 investment evaluations reported in 372 separate studies from 1958 to 2011. We find that the internal rate of return (IRR) is the predominant summary measure of investment performance used in the literature despite methodological criticisms dating back more than a half century. The reported IRRs imply rates of return that are implausibly high. We investigate the reasons for these implausibly high estimates by analytically comparing the IRR to the modified internal rate of return (MIRR). The MIRR addresses several methodological concerns with using the IRR, has the intuitive interpretation as the annual compounding interest rate paid by an investment, and is directly related to the benefit–cost ratio. To obtain more credible rate of return estimates, we then develop a novel method for recalibrating previously reported IRR estimates using the MIRR when there is limited information on an investment's stream of benefits and costs. Our recalibrated estimates of the rate of return are more modest (median of 9.8% versus 39% per year); however, they are still substantial enough to question the current scaling back of public agricultural R&D spending in many countries.

Description: We investigate the influence of different thermal and velocity boundary conditions on numerical geodynamo models. We concentrate on the implications for magnetic field morphology, heat transport scaling laws, force balances and generation mechanisms. The field morphology most strongly depends on the local Rossby number, but there is some variation in the dipolarity of the field with boundary condition. Scaling laws also depend on the boundary conditions, but a diffusivity-free scaling is a good first order approximation for all our dipolar models. Our multipolar models, however, obey different scaling laws from dipolar models implying a different force balance in these models. We find that our dipolar models have a stronger degree of Lorentz–Coriolis balance compared to our multipolar models which have a stronger degree of Lorentz-inertial balance.The models with a stronger Lorentz–Coriolis dominance can be generated by either α, α 2 or α 2 mechanisms whereas the models with a stronger Lorentz-inertial balance are all α 2 dynamos. These results imply that some caution is necessary when extrapolating results from dynamo models to Earth-like parameters since the choice of boundary conditions can have important effects.

Description: We measure impacts of liberalising European agriculture on farm income distribution in western Germany. Unlike previous studies, we do not treat market income and policy support as independent income sources. We jointly apply a partial equilibrium and a programming model and find that liberalisation increases inequality in relative terms though it decreases inequality in absolute terms. In particular, we analyse the relevance of taking into account policy-induced production and market responses in an ex-ante inequality analysis. We find that although their inclusion generally does not affect the direction of distributional effects, it may have considerable impact on their magnitude.

Description: In the past two decades, there has been an explosion of studies eliciting consumer willingness-to-pay for food attributes; however, this work has largely refrained from drawing a distinction between preferences for health, safety and quality on the one hand and consumers' subjective beliefs that the products studied possess these attributes, on the other. Using data from three experimental studies, along with structural economic models, we show that controlling for subjective beliefs can substantively alter the interpretation of results and the ultimate implications derived from a study. The results suggest the need to measure subjective beliefs in studies of consumer choice and to utilise the measures when making policy and marketing recommendations.

Description: We quantify the economic and health effects of a fruit and vegetable (F&V) voucher policy designed for increasing F&V consumption among low-income consumers. The analysis combined two models: an economic model which predicts how F&V consumption is affected by a change in policy, and a health model which evaluates the impact of a change in F&V consumption in terms of death avoided and life-years saved. We find that targeted F&V voucher policies can be more cost-effective than non-targeted policies based on tax decreases, but only when the targeted policy is focused narrowly on the lowest income consumers.

Description: The adoption of voluntary front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labels by UK food retailers and manufacturers is explored. These labels highlight key nutrients, facilitating product comparisons. Information for 2,201 products launched between 2007 and 2009 was analysed. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models explore drivers of FOP label use. Products introduced more recently by retailers and certain food categories were more likely to carry FOP labels. Increasing the content of sodium and sugar decreased odds of FOP use in some categories, but with limited significance. Discussion includes policy options to optimise firm response and implications for evolving mandatory FOP labelling proposals.

Description: We develop a structural econometric model of the vertical contracts between soft drink manufacturers and retailers to assess the impact of taxes or changes in production costs on consumer prices. Using individual data on food purchases from a representative survey of 19,000 French households in 2005, we estimate consumer demand using a random utility approach. Among a set of possible vertical relationships, we select the model that best fits the data. We evaluate the pass-through rate of changes in input costs (sugar) or of taxes and show that the industry over-shifts cost changes or excise taxes to the consumers. This result challenges the belief that firms do not pass on the full extent of cost changes or excise taxes to consumers.

Description: There is broad debate about including agriculture in greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction efforts such as the European Emissions Trading Scheme. Since most agricultural GHG emissions originate from non-point sources, they cannot be directly measured, and therefore have to be derived by calculation schemes (indicators). We designed five such GHG indicators for dairy farms and analyzed the trade-offs between their feasibility, measurement accuracy, and level of induced abatement costs. Analyses of induced abatement costs and calculation accuracy are based on emission reduction simulations with a highly-detailed single-farm optimization model. Feasibility is discussed in a qualitative manner. Our results indicate that the trade-offs depend on both farm characteristics and the targeted reduction level. In particular, the advantages of detailed indicators decrease for higher abatement levels. Only the least feasible indicator led to abatement costs that would result in emission efforts at given prices in the European Emissions Trading Scheme, although with a rather small potential. Our results thus suggest little potential for including dairy production into market-based reduction policies.

Description: Using a lab experiment with 351 adult non-student subjects, we investigate the impact of labels and secondary information on willingness to pay (WTP) for foods that use various ingredients and processes that have been the subject of food policy discussions. We find a distinct asymmetry of WTP sensitivity between "Contains X" and "Free of X" labels with negatively-framed secondary information. The "Free of X" label has an impact only when secondary information is provided, and the negative impact of "Contains X" is mitigated by secondary information. We also consider how the results of our study can inform the ongoing debate about mandatory food labeling regulations in the United States: if mandatory labeling is adopted, providing additional information about what the product contains would significantly lessen the negative impact on demand.

Description: Many agricultural support payments are based on past production with restrictions on how land may currently be used. When support payments to field crops are analyzed in a static framework, they do not directly impact current production decisions. However, over time, as relative profits change, these payments affect current output. The payments may keep land in less profitable production of program crops through restrictions prohibiting potentially more profitable endeavors such as cultivating fruits and vegetables. These payments have the potential to lead to production and trade distortions similar in magnitude to the distortions associated with direct production subsidies.

Description: The recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, which decouples farm subsidies from production, is expected to impact on farmers’ production decisions. We perform a cross-country farm-level empirical analysis of farmers’ production responses to these reforms using a panel dataset for the EU15 countries for the period 2001–2007. We apply quasi-experimental empirical methods and find that the probability of a farm disinvesting decreased due to the policy change for most farms. However, the policy change facilitated exit for farms engaged in livestock production and those that were already in the process of leaving the sector.

Description: This study examines the risk management opportunities for fluid milk market participants in the United States through the use of milk futures contracts. We estimate the nature of basis risk from 2002–2011 using modern time-series and econometric techniques. The results of this investigation reveal that at sufficient hedging intervals, using class III manufacturing milk futures contracts to cross-hedge fluid milk has the ability to reduce risk and provide revenue stability to market participants. When used in conjunction with milk futures, prediction algorithms for the closing basis facilitate more direct management of fluid milk price risk.

Description: Lake sediments are excellent sources of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic information because they provide continuous and high-resolution records. South America is of particular interest because it is the only landmass that stretches southward into the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans towards Antarctica. The aim of this study is to explore the relationship of magnetic parameters with elemental and palaeobiological data of Laguna Potrok Aike to develop a model of lake-level changes and related hydrological and climatic fluctuations. Magnetic measurements were performed on subsamples from 15 500 cal. BP to the present, and associated rock magnetic parameters were calculated to infer magnetic mineralogy, concentration and grain size. According to the model, parameters dependent on magnetic concentration and grain size are directly related to lake-level changes. During dry periods, the remanent coercivity displays high values, whereas the proportion of magnetite is relatively low. Low percentages of greigite are observed, indicating that the water of the lake was stratified at least four times during the studied period, at approximately 10 300, 8900, 8500 and 8300 cal. BP. The preservation of greigite by inhibiting its complete transformation into pyrite is associated with a rapid burial that occurs with high sedimentation rates. Thermal stratification could be caused by a slight cooling in the area triggered by a weakening of the Westerlies and/or low activity of the sun, sum to the effect of a flood of melt water in the North Atlantic.

Description: Measurement of magnetic vector or tensor quantities, namely of field or field gradient, delivers more details of the underlying geological setting in geomagnetic prospection than a scalar measurement of a single component or of the scalar total magnetic intensity. Currently, highest measurement resolutions are achievable with superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID)-based systems. Due to technological limitations, it is necessary to suppress the parasitic magnetic field response from the SQUID gradiometer signals, which are a superposition of one tensor component and all three orthogonal magnetic field components. This in turn requires an accurate estimation of the local magnetic field. Such a measurement can itself be achieved via three additional orthogonal SQUID reference magnetometers. It is the calibration of such a SQUID reference vector magnetometer system that is the subject of this paper. A number of vector magnetometer calibration methods are described in the literature. We present two methods that we have implemented and compared, for their suitability of rapid data processing and integration into a full tensor magnetic gradiometry, SQUID-based, system. We conclude that the calibration routines must necessarily model fabrication misalignments, field offset and scale factors, and include comparison with a reference magnetic field. In order to enable fast processing on site, the software must be able to function as a stand-alone toolbox.

Description: Motional induction in the ocean by tides has long been observed by both land and satellite measurements of magnetic fields. While these signals are weak (~10 nT) when compared to the main magnetic field, their persistent nature makes them important for consideration during geomagnetic field modelling. Previous studies have reported several discrepancies between observations and numerical predictions of the tidal magnetic signals and those studies were inconclusive of the source of the error. We address this issue by (1) analysing magnetometer data from ocean-bottom stations, where the low-noise and high-signal environment is most suitable for detecting the weak tidal magnetic signals, (2) by numerically predicting the magnetic field with a spatial resolution that is 16 times higher than the previous studies and (3) by using four different models of upper-mantle conductivity. We use vector magnetic data from six ocean-bottom electromagnetic (OBEM) stations located in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The OBEM tidal amplitudes were derived using an iteratively re-weighted least-squares (IRLS) method and by limiting the analysis of lunar semidiurnal (M2), lunar elliptic semidinurnal (N2) and diurnal (O1) tidal modes to the night-time. Using a 3-D electromagnetic induction solver and the TPX07.2 tidal model, we predict the tidal magnetic signal. We use earth models with non-uniform oceans and four 1-D mantle sections underneath taken from Kuvshinov and Olsen, Shimizu et al. and Baba et al. to compare the effect of upper-mantle conductivity. We find that in general, the predictions and observations match within 10–70 per cent across all the stations for each of the tidal modes. The median normalized percent difference (NPD) between observed and predicted amplitudes for the tidal modes M2, N2 and O1 were 15 per cent, 47 per cent and 98 per cent, respectively, for all the stations and models. At the majority of stations, and for each of the tidal modes, the higher resolution (0.25° 0.25°) modelling gave amplitudes consistently closer to the observations than the lower resolution (1° 1°) modelling. The difference in lithospheric resistance east and west of the Izu–Bonin trench system seems to be affecting the model response and observations in the O1 tidal mode. This response is not seen in the M2 and N2 modes, thereby indicating that the O1 mode is more sensitive to lithospheric resistance.

Description: Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle (LGM-Dairy) is a risk management tool for protecting milk income over feed cost margins. In this article, we examine the assumptions underpinning the method used to determine LGM-Dairy premiums. Analysis of the milk–feed dependence structure is conducted using copula methods, a rich set of tools that allow modelers to capture nonlinearities in dependence among variables of interest. We find a significant relationship between milk and feed prices that increases with time-to-maturity and severity of negative price shocks. Extremal, or tail, dependence is the propensity of dependence to concentrate in the tails of a distribution. A common theme in financial and actuarial applications and in agricultural crop revenue insurance is that tail dependence increases the risk to the underwriter and results in higher insurance premiums. We present, to our knowledge, the first case in which tail dependence may actually reduce actuarially fair premiums for an agricultural risk insurance product. We examine hedging effectiveness with LGM-Dairy and show that, even in the absence of basis or production risk, hedging horizon plays an important role in the ability of this tool to smooth farm income over feed cost margins over time. Rating methodology that accounts for tail dependence between milk and feed prices extends the optimal hedging horizon and increases hedging effectiveness of the LGM-Dairy program.

Description: The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for explaining the migration of farm labor out of the agricultural sector. Given the irreversibility of migration decisions and uncertainty in the economy, potential migrants might choose to postpone migration, even in the face of positive wage differentials. Using annual U.S. employment data from between 1948 and 2009, our results indicate that large elasticities between economic incentives and out-farm migration are observed after a high threshold of wage differentials between farm and off-farm sectors is surpassed.

Description: Magnetotelluric observations over one or 2-D structures that are distorted by 3-D electro-galvanic effects, need to be corrected for their proper conversion into reliable images of the subsurface electrical resistivity distribution. One of the most widely used approaches for correcting the data is the Groom–Bailey decomposition of the impedance tensor in terms of the unknown parameters of strike, twist and shear, along with the also unknown 2-D impedances. The standard approach for recovering the 2-D impedances is to solve numerically for all the unknowns as a non-linear inverse problem. In this work, we pose the recovery of the undistorted impedances in terms of a quadratic equation whose solutions filter out the distortions after a final tune for the appropriate shear parameter. The formula relies on two known invariants of the impedance tensor, the series and parallel invariants that have special immunity to some of the distorting parameters. Compared with the standard numerical recovery, the analytical solution provides more accurate results; they are clear-cut for both amplitudes and phases. The recovered amplitudes of the impedance are independent of strike, twist and shear, and the phases, in addition, of static effects. The recovery formula is transparent to random noise; hence the data preserve the original uncertainties. The applications to individual soundings of the COPROD2S1 data set and to a profile over a seismogenic region in Baja California, illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Description: Great progress has been made in the numerical simulation of planetary dynamos, though these numerical experiments still operate in a regime very far from the planets. For example, it seems unlikely that viscous forces are at all significant in planetary interiors, yet some of the simulations display a significant dependence on viscosity, and indeed in some of the simulations the dynamo mechanism is itself viscously driven, taking the form of helical Ekman pumping within columnar convection rolls. Given the similarity of the external magnetic fields observed in the terrestrial planets and gas giants, and the extremely small value of the Ekman number in all such cases, it seems natural to suppose that the underlying dynamo mechanism in these planets is simple, robust, independent of viscosity and insensitive to mechanical boundary conditions. A key step to identifying this mechanism is to determine the source of helicity in planetary cores, which itself should be robust, independent of viscosity and insensitive to boundary conditions. In this paper, we explore the possibility that the helicity in the core of the Earth arises from the spontaneous emission of inertial waves, driven by the equatorial heat flux in the outer core. We also ask if a similar mechanism might operate in other planets, and perhaps act to supplement the helicity driven by Ekman pumping in the (viscous) numerical simulations. We demonstrate that such waves do indeed produce the required helicity distribution outside the tangent cylinder. Moreover, we show that these waves inevitably propagate along the axis of the columnar vortices, and indeed they are the very mechanism by which the columnar vortices form in the first place and the means by which the columns subsequently evolve. We also calculate the emf induced by such axially propagating inertial waves and show that, in principle, this emf is sufficient to support a self-sustaining dynamo of the α 2 type. Finally, we derive the scaling laws for this kind of inertial-wave dynamo. We compare these predictions with the (imperfect) simulations, and also with what little we know about the Earth's core. The numerical experiments fall into two categories; the slowly rotating simulations which cannot sustain inertial waves at the small scales and the rapidly rotating (planet-like) ones which can. Our scaling laws are consistent with the latter class of simulations, and also with what we know about the Earth.

Description: The main sources of magnetic minerals in soils unaffected by anthropogenic pollution are iron oxides and hydroxides derived from parent materials through soil formation processes. Soil magnetic minerals can be used as indicators of environmental factors including soil forming processes, degree of pedogenesis, weathering processes and biological activities. In this study measurements of magnetic susceptibility are used to detect the presence and the concentration of soil magnetic minerals in topsoil and bulk samples in a small cultivated field, which forms a hydrological unit that can be considered to be representative of the rainfed agroecosystems of Mediterranean mountain environments. Additional magnetic studies such as isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM), anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) and thermomagnetic measurements are used to identify and characterize the magnetic mineralogy of soil minerals. The objectives were to analyse the spatial variability of the magnetic parameters to assess whether topographic factors, soil redistribution processes, and soil properties such as soil texture, organic matter and carbonate contents analysed in this study, are related to the spatial distribution pattern of magnetic properties. The medians of mass specific magnetic susceptibility at low frequency ( lf ) were 36.0 and 31.1 10 –8 m 3 kg –1 in bulk and topsoil samples respectively. High correlation coefficients were found between the lf in topsoil and bulk core samples ( r  = 0.951, p  〈 0.01). In addition, volumetric magnetic susceptibility was measured in situ in the field ( is ) and values varied from 13.3 to 64.0 10 –5 SI. High correlation coefficients were found between lf in topsoil measured in the laboratory and volumetric magnetic susceptibility field measurements ( r  = 0.894, p  〈 0.01). The results obtained from magnetic studies such as IRM, ARM and thermomagnetic measurements show the presence of magnetite, which is the predominant magnetic carrier, and hematite. The predominance of superparamagnetic minerals in upper soil layers suggests enrichment in pedogenic minerals. The finer soil particles, the organic matter content and the magnetic susceptibility values are statistically correlated and their spatial variability is related to similar physical processes. Runoff redistributes soil components including magnetic minerals and exports fine particles out the field. This research contributed to further knowledge on the application of soil magnetic properties to derive useful information on soil processes in Mediterranean cultivated soils.

Description: With focus on seedstock herds selling replacements and a qualified class of diseases, this paper models producers' interdependent incentives to participate in a voluntary livestock disease control programme. Under strategic complementarity among participation decisions, momentum can build such that market premium for participation and participation rate increase sequentially. Non-participation, partial participation and full participation can all be Nash equilibria. Participation cost heterogeneity will dispose the outcome towards incomplete participation. We find plausible conditions under which temporary government subsidies cause tipping towards full participation. Applying parameters from the literature on Johne's disease, we illustrate factors that may affect participation.

Description: State of the art numerical models of the Geodynamo are still performed in a parameter regime extremely remote from the values relevant to the physics of the Earth's core. In order to establish a connection between dynamo modelling and the geophysical motivation, it is necessary to use scaling laws. Such scaling laws establish the dependence of essential quantities (such as the magnetic field strength) on measured or controlled quantities. They allow for a direct confrontation of advanced models with geophysical constraints. We combine a numerical approach, based on a multiple linear regression method in the form of power laws, applied to a database of 102 direct numerical simulations (courtesy of U. Christensen), and a physical approach, based on energetics and forces balances. We show that previous empirical scaling laws for the magnetic field strength essentially reflect the statistical balance between energy production and dissipation for saturated dynamos. Such power based scaling laws are thus necessarily valid for any dynamo in statistical equilibrium and applicable to any numerical model, irrespectively of the dynamo mechanism. We show that direct numerical fits can provide contradictory results owing to biases in the parameters space covered in the numerics and to the role of a priori hypothesis on the fraction of ohmic dissipation. We introduce predictive scaling laws, that is relations involving input parameters of the governing equations only. We guide our reasoning on physical considerations. We show that our predictive scaling laws can properly describe the numerical database and reflect the dominant forces balance at work in these numerical simulations. We highlight the dependence of the magnetic field strength on the rotation rate. Finally, our results stress that available numerical models operate in a viscous dynamical regime, which is not relevant to the Earth's core.

Description: High-quality palaeomagnetic data for the early Carboniferous of Central Asia are scarce and the palaeogeographic evolution of this area prior to final amalgamation of the region east of the Ural mountains is still rather obscure. Here, we present palaeomagnetic data for early Carboniferous deposits from two areas in the Kyrgyz North Tianshan (NTS). Detailed rock-magnetic analysis indicates the presence of magnetite and haematite as magnetic carriers in these red sediments. In the Kazakh basin section (KEL), we identify a high-temperature component (HTC) of magnetization during stepwise thermal demagnetization at temperatures of up to ~680 °C yielding a site mean direction of D  = 176.2°, I  = –36.4°, k  = 57.4 and α 95  = 8.9° after tilt correction. Two HTCs of magnetization were identified in samples from the Sonkul Basin (DUN) with maximum blocking temperatures of ~600 °C (magnetite) and ~680 °C (haematite). The magnetite component was also identified with alternating field demagnetization. The resulting site mean directions for these two components identified in 16 and 14 sites, respectively, are D  = 149.3°, I  = –50.3°, k  = 73.6 and α 95  = 4.3° for the magnetite and D  = 139.6°, I  = –35.1°, k  = 71.6 and α 95  = 4.7° for the haematite component. All three mean directions show a significant increase of the precision parameter k after tilt correction indicating acquisition of the high-temperature magnetization prior to the main folding event in the Jurassic. We explain the difference of the two components of DUN by a process of inclination bias due to compaction to which the platy haematite particles are more susceptible. Applying the elongation-inclination (E/I) method to directional data from over 100 individual samples from location DUN results in a negligible correction for the magnetite component (〈5°), whereas the inclination of the haematite component corrects from –35.0° to –50.3° ( f  = 0.6, error interval –41.4° to –57.9°), which is then equal to the uncorrected magnetite inclination. The small number of samples from section KEL does not allow application of the E/I technique and inclination correction based on high field anisotropy of isothermal remanent magnetization was applied, yielding a corrected inclination of –75.2° ± 4°. Assuming comparable degrees of compaction for both study areas and applying the flattening factor obtained in DUN on samples from KEL, however, would result in comparable inclinations. The identification of inclination shallowing at both sections indicates that the age of magnetization is close to the deposition age. Assuming a reversed polarity of the directions from both areas results in palaeolatitudes of ~30°N for section DUN and ~60°N for the anisotropy-based correction of section KEL. The large difference, however, is geologically very unlikely. The inclination of the magnetite component of DUN (unaffected by inclination shallowing) favours a palaeoposition of ~30°N. This is supported by the inclination shallowing corrected haematite component of DUN yielding a comparable inclination. Therefore, our results indicate that the NTS domain was situated at ~30°N in the early Carboniferous. Furthermore, the NTS zone was probably not connected to Baltica or Siberia prior to the late Palaeozoic.

Description: An exploratory 3-D model of the electrical conductivity structure of the Australian continent is presented. The model is derived from the inversion of vertical magnetic-field transfer functions from the Australia-wide Array of Geomagnetic Stations. Crustal conductivity anomalies evident in the model are consistent with those previously mapped by independent magnetometer array studies and new electrical structures are suggested in the upper mantle. The model represents a seamless continent-scale basis for further models likely to be derived from subsequent studies. The model reveals three upper-mantle enhanced-conductivity anomalies beneath Archaean cratonic regions and two upper-mantle anomalies beneath Phanerozoic terranes in eastern Australia. Two of these anomalies have been investigated by recent magnetotelluric (MT) surveys, one in the Yilgarn Craton–Officer Basin–Musgrave Block the other in the Gawler Craton region, and are consistent with the MT results. Across much of central Australia enhanced conductivity at depths of 50–100 km is observed in the model. This region corresponds well with a recognized seismic velocity gradient at 75–100 km. Conductivity differences are also observed beneath Archaean cratons in Western Australia. The Pilbara Craton is represented as an enhanced conductivity anomaly at about 100 km, corresponding well with the lower-velocity anomaly evident in surface wave tomography models. The Yilgarn Craton is imaged as a low-conductivity body, with conductivity two orders of magnitude lower than the Pilbara Craton, continuing to greater depths.

Description: This paper presents new directional archeomagnetic data from nine Meso-/Neolithic fireplaces, sampled in a cave shelter, at Arconciel, in western Switzerland. Rock magnetic measurements indicate a homogenous magnetic mineralogy in all fireplaces, with magnetite as the main magnetic carrier. The remanent magnetization is stable and generally shows one characteristic directional component. Nine new directions, which were obtained from Arconciel, are combined with 356 other archeomagnetic data from a circular area with a radius of 700 km around this site, to obtain a penalized least square spline fit for the past 9000 yr. We found in general good agreement with other local compilations, such as the Balkan curve, the regional SCHA.DIF.8k model and with lake sediments from UK, Fennoscandia and Switzerland. Nevertheless, a time lag of several centuries is observed for a declination maximum between the archeomagnetic spline fit and the other European data records around 5900 BC. This time lag is also observed in the Swiss lake sediment record; therefore we interpret this shift as a local feature of the Earth's magnetic field.

Description: We present a new approach for 2-D magnetotelluric forward numerical modelling in contrast to traditional numerical methods like finite elements or finite differences. The method used for solving the partial differential equations is based on a mesh-free technique which does not need an underlaying mesh or grid. We use the Meshless Local Petrov–Galerkin (MLPG) method in combination with radial basis functions to simulate the response of a given conductivity model to a plane-wave source. We compare the mesh-free solution with known simulation programs and simple analytical solutions. Furthermore, we discuss the new magnetotelluric modelling method in terms of implementation and stability. First, we study the convergence and discretization errors of the new method with a simple half-space conductivity model. Then we compare our mesh-free simulation results with simple 2-D conductivity models with the results of a well-known finite element program. In the end, we provide a smooth conductivity model calculated with the mesh-free approach. The modelling results, even with randomly distributed nodes, are in a good agreement with those obtained by the finite element method.