Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
Forecasting the lava flow invasion hazard in near‐real
time is a primary challenge for volcano monitoring systems.
The paroxysmal episode at Mount Etna on 12–13 January
2011 produced in ∼4 hours lava fountains and fast‐moving
lava flows 4.3 km long. We produced timely predictions
of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows while the
eruption was still ongoing. We employed infrared satellite
data (MODIS, AVHRR, SEVIRI) to estimate in near‐realtime
lava eruption rates (peak value of 60 m3 s−1). These
time‐varying discharge rates were then used to drive
MAGFLOW simulations to chart the spread of lava as a
function of time. Based on a classification on durations and
lava volumes of ∼130 paroxysms at Etna in the past 13 years,
and on lava flow path simulations of expected eruptions, we
constructed a lava flow invasion hazard map for summit
eruptions, providing a rapid response to the impending hazard.
This allowed key at‐risk areas to be rapidly and appropriately
identified.
Description:
We are grateful to EUMETSAT for SEVIRI
data, to NASA for MODIS data, and toNOAAfor AVHRR data. The authors
thank one anonymous reviewer and V. Acocella for their helpful and constructive
comments. This study was performed with the financial support
from the V3‐LAVA project (INGV‐DPC 2007‐2009 contract).
Description:
Published
Description:
L13317
Description:
1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
Description:
1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
Description:
3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
Description:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
lava hazard
;
Etna
;
04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
;
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks
;
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
;
05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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