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  • American Physical Society (APS)  (74,345)
  • American Geophysical Union
  • 2010-2014  (106,484)
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  • 11
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    Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and (2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and 50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
    Description: This work was developed in the frame of the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1925-1935
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Etna ; probabilistic modeling ; eruption ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
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    Ocean, sea-ice, atmosphere oscillations in the Southern Ocean as simulated by the SINTEX coupled model (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: 1This study evaluates the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) as simulated by the SINTEX coupled model. We found evidence that sea-ice treatment plays a crucial role on simulating the ACW. In particular, SST anomalies at interannual time scales describe a propagating ACW-like pattern when a dynamic thermodynamic sea-ice model is coupled with the ocean, but when sea-ice is relaxed to climatology, anomalies occur as zonally symmetric patterns that do not propagate in longitude. Moreover, from the experiment with an active sea-ice component we saw that ACW-like oscillations are strongly modulated by low frequency variability. Our result adds some extra confidence to previous studies based on relatively short series of observed data.
    Description: This research was supported by the PREDICATE EU project (EVK2 – CT-1999 – 0020,). First author was supported by the PRISM EU project (EVR1 – CT-2001 – 40012).
    Description: Published
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Antarctic Circumpolar Wave ; General Circulation Models ; air-ice-sea interactions ; 02. Cryosphere::02.04. Sea ice::02.04.01. Atmosphere/sea ice/ocean interaction
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
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    An analysis of tropical instability waves in a numerical model of the Pacific Ocean - 2. Generation and energetics of the waves (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The instability processes which generate unstable waves with chara- cteristics similar to observed tropical instability waves in the Pacific Ocean are examined through a local energy analysis based on deviations from the time mean flow. Numerical experiments indicate that the waves develop preferentially in the eastern Pacific along the northern temperature front and have a westward phase speed and a structure with two peaks in amplitude: one located on the equator and the other a few degrees north of it. The energy analysis shows that the "two-peak" structure of the eastern waves is explained by two different instability processes which occur at different latitudes. In the time mean sense the region north of the equator is baroclinically unstable, while barotropic instability prevails at the equator. The life cycle of the waves is revealed by the time evolution of the energetics. Baroclinic instability is the dominant triggering mechanism which induces growth of the waves along the northern temperature front. The eddy pressure fluxes radiate energy south of the equator where the rneridional shear between the Equatorial Undercurrent and the South Equatorial Current becomes barotropically unstable. From the numerical simulations, there is evidence of a second unstable region in the central Pacific south of the equator where the instabilities have a lower phase speed. The energy analysis also shows that these waves grow from both barotropic and baroclinic conversions.
    Description: This work was supported by the Department of Com- merce/NOAA under grant NA56GP0026. One of the au- thors (SM) was partially supported by a NASA Global Change Fellowship NGT-30288. Another author (AB) was supported by a UCAR Postdoctoral Fellowship
    Description: Published
    Description: 29637-29661
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Ocean modeling ; Equatorial Ocean ; Tropical Instability Waves ; Ocean wave generation ; Ocean wave energetics ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
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    Seismo-tectonic behavior of the Pernicana Fault System (Mt Etna): A gauge for volcano flank instability? (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Flank instability at basaltic volcanoes is often related to repeated dike intrusions along rift zones and accompanied by surface fracturing and seismicity. These processes have been mostly studied during specific events, and the lack of longer-term observations hinders their better understanding. Here we analyze ~20 years of deformation of the Pernicana Fault System (PFS), the key structure controlling the instability of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. We exploit East-West and vertical components of mean deformation velocity, as well as corresponding time series, computed from ERS/ENVISAT (1992–2010) and COSMO-SkyMed (2009–2011) satellite radar sensors via Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry techniques. We then integrate and compare this information with field, seismic, and leveling data, collected between 1980 and 2012. We observe transient displacements accompanied by seismicity, overprinted on a long-term background eastward motion (~2 cm/yr). In the last decades, these transient events were preceded by a constant amount of accumulated strain near the PFS. The time of strain accumulation varies between a few years and a few decades, also depending on magma emplacement within the nearby North East Rift, which may increase the strain along the PFS. These results suggest that the amount of deformation near the PFS may be used as a gauge to forecast the occurrence of instability transients on the eastern flank of Etna. In this context, the PFS may provide an ideal, small-scale structure to test the relations between strain accumulation, stress loading, and seismic energy release.
    Description: This work has been partially supported by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) within the SAR4Volcanoes project, agreement I/ 034/11/0.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4398-4409
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: 5T. Sorveglianza sismica e operatività post-terremoto
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcano flank instability ; Pernicana fault ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
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    Complete seismic release of tectonic strain and earthquake recurrence in the Apennines (Italy) (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Here I compare estimates of tectonic strain rates from dense Global Positioning System measurements with the seismicity released in the last ~500 years in the Apennines (Italy). The rates of seismic moment accumulation from geodesy and of historical seismic release by earthquakes agree within the uncertainties, ruling out significant aseismic deformation. Within the considered 400 km long section of the Apennines, this balance yields an average recurrence interval of 30–75 years for MW≥6.5 events without requiring a future earthquake larger than those observed historically (MW~7). A minimum estimate of unreleased strain allows MW≥6.5 and MW≥6.9 events to be released in ~35% and ~10% of the central-southern Apennines, respectively. The definition of the seismic potential for smaller events is more uncertain, and their occurrence remains a significant threat throughout the Apennines.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1155–1162
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Crustal deformation ; Earthquakes ; GPS ; Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
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    Long-term stress-strain analysis of volcano flank instability: The eastern sector of Etna from 1980 to 2012 (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We investigated the evolution of seismicity and deformation in the unstable eastern flank of Etna volcano over a 30 year period (from 1980 to 2012). A significant temporal correlation has been revealed between periods of flank acceleration and intensified seismic activity by comparing seismicity along the northern border (Pernicana fault system) of the sliding flank and the deformation of the eastern flank. Two marked phases have been observed in 1984-1986 and in the years following 2002. These two phases are separated by an intermediate phase from 1987 to 2001, in which the flank sliding slowed down and the seismicity dropped drastically. This common temporal evolution in the deformation rate and seismic release supports the hypothesis that the seismicity in the northern border can be viewed as a marker of the response to accommodate the stress exerted by the traction of the eastern flank sliding. This interplay has also been corroborated by finite element method numerical computations that highlight a good correlation between the seismicity pattern and areas of positive stress changes induced by the sliding surface. The two intense phases of flank acceleration are representative of two main different sources: volcano flank instability stretching the eastern sector in the first 1984-1986 phase and magmatic intrusions pushing the eastern flank seaward since the 2002-2003 eruption. Establishing the relationship between flank acceleration and seismic activation therefore contributes to understanding Etna's mechanical behavior and provides insights into the processes regulating the unstable flank response.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5098-5108
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Pernicana ; fault ; volcano-tectonics ; flank instability ; seismicity and deformation ; stress and strain ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
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    Magma flow between summit and Pu‘u ‘O‘o at Kılauea Volcano, Hawai‘i (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are often accompanied by spatiotemporal migration of ground deformation, a consequence of pressure changes within magma reservoirs and pathways. We modeled the propagation of pressure variations through the east rift zone (ERZ) of K" ılauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, caused by magma " o-Kupaianaha withdrawal during the early eruptive episodes (1983–1985) of the ongoing Pu‘u ‘ O‘" " eruption. Eruptive activity at the Pu‘u ‘ O‘" o vent was typically accompanied by abrupt deflation that lasted for several hours and was followed by a sudden onset of gradual inflation once the eruptive episode had ended. Similar patterns of deflation and inflation were recorded at K" ılauea’s summit, approximately 15 km to the northwest, albeit with time delays of hours. These delay times can be reproduced by modeling the spatiotemporal changes in magma pressure and flow rate within an elastic-walled dike that traverses K" ılauea’s ERZ. Key parameters that affect the behavior of the magma-dike system are the dike dimensions, the elasticity of the wall rock, the magma viscosity, and to a lesser degree the magnitude and duration of the pressure variations themselves. Combinations of these parameters define a transport efficiency and a pressure diffusivity, which vary somewhat from episode to episode, resulting in variations in delay times. The observed variations in transport efficiency are most easily explained by small, localized changes to the geometry of the magma pathway
    Description: Published
    Description: 2232–2246
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: magma flow ; dikes ; Kilauea ; elastic rock ; magma-rock coupling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    The coupling between very long period seismic events, volcanic tremor, and degassing rates at Mount Etna volcano (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: From December 2005 to January 2006, an anomalous degassing episode was observed at Mount Etna, well-correlated with an increase in volcanic tremor, and in the almost complete absence of eruptive activity. In the same period, more than 10,000 very long period (VLP) events were detected. Through moment tensor inversion analyses of the VLP pulses, we obtained quantitative estimates of the volumetric variations associated with these events. This allowed a quantitative investigation of the relationship between VLP seismic activity, volcanic tremor, and gas emission rate at Mount Etna. We found a statistically significant positive correlation between SO2 gas flux and volcanic tremor, suggesting that tremor amplitude can be used as a first-order proxy for the background degassing activity of the volcano. VLP volumetric changes and SO2 gas flux are correlated only for the last part of our observations, following a slight change in the VLP source depth. We calculate that the gas associated with VLP signal genesis contributed less than 5% of the total gas emission. The existence of a linear correlation between VLP and degassing activities indicates a general relationship between these two processes. The effectiveness of such coupling appears to depend upon the particular location of the VLP source, suggesting that conduit geometry might play a significant role in the VLP-generating process. These results are the first report on Mount Etna of a quantitative relationship between the amounts of gas emissions directly estimated through instrumental flux measurements and the quantities of gas mass inferred in the VLP source inversion.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4910-4921
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Very Long Period seismicity ; UV scanners network ; Etna Volcano ; volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
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    Interaction between magma intrusion and flank dynamics at Mt. Etna in 2008, imaged by integrated dense GPS and DInSAR data (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Global positioning system (GPS) and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) data, collected from July 2007 to July 2008 on Mt. Etna, are analyzed to define the dynamics preceding and accompanying the onset of the eruption on 13 May 2008. Short- and long-term comparisons have been made on both GPS and radar data, covering similar time windows. Thanks to the availability of three GPS surveys the year before the eruption onset, an increase in the seaward movement of the NE flank of the volcano has been detected in the few months before the dike intrusion. The GPS ground deformation pattern also shows a slight inflation centered on the western side of the volcano in the preeruptive long-term comparison (from July 2007 to May 2008). The GPS has been integrated with DInSAR data by the SISTEM approach, to take advantage of the different methodologies and provide high spatial sampling of the 3-D ground displacement pattern. We inverted the SISTEM results to model the pressure source causing the observed preeruptive inflation. The subsequent emplacement of the eruptive dike was imaged by two GPS surveys carried out on a dense network over the uppermost part of the volcano on 6 and 13 May, i.e., a few days before and a few hours after the beginning of the eruption. We inverted this comparison to define the position, geometry, and kinematics of the dike. The dike intrusion was also imaged by DInSAR data with temporal baselines of 2-3 months, which confirm strong displacements localized on the summit area, rapidly decreasing toward the middle flanks of the volcano, as detected by very short-term GPS data; furthermore, the comparison between DInSAR and GPS data highlighted the presence of a depressurizing source localized beneath the upper southwestern area, acting just after the dike intrusion. Finally, the long-period (1 year) GPS and DInSAR data were integrated by SISTEM to finely depict the 3-D ground deformation pattern with the highest spatial resolution. The long-period data allowed the complex kinematics of the volcano to be finely imaged and highlighting the interaction between flank dynamics and magma injection.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2818-2835
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: flank dynamics ; eruption ; volcano-tectonics ; GPS ; DInSAR ; data integration ; Etna ; deformation ; volcano ; fault ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
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    New data from borehole strainmeters to infer lava fountain sources (Etna 2011-2012) (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In January 2011 eruptive activity resumed at Etna producing a new phase with frequent lava fountain episodes until April 2012. In November 2011, the first two borehole strainmeters were installed, which detected negative strain changes (~ 0.15 - 0.8 strain) during the paroxysmal events. A Finite Element Model was set up to estimate accurately the tilt and volumetric strain, taking into account the real profile of the volcano and the elastic medium heterogeneity. The numerical computations indicated an elongated depressurizing source located at 0 km b.s.l., which underwent a volume change of ~2 x 106 m3 which is the most of the magma volume erupted while a smaller remaining part is accommodated by the magma compressibility. This shallow source cannot accumulate large magma volumes and, thus, favours short term periodic eruptive events with a fairly constant balance between the refilling and the erupted magma.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3579-3584
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20150613
    Keywords: Etna volcano ; lava fountain eruptions ; shallow plumbing system ; borehole strainmeters ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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